The Federal Reserve and Its Inflation Target || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубліковано 4 лип 2024
- *At :30 and 1:00, I should have said "federal funds rate" instead of 'prime rate'
For all the hungover Americans out there, I heard the best cure after a long day of drinking is to talk about inflation. Well, maybe it will just make your head hurt more, but you still have the weekend ahead of you to relax...
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#federalreserve #inflation #economy
Zehian on geopolitics is my favorite travel blog channel
That’s one way to call a CIA asset for sure
RIP Anthony Bourdain… but thank god we have Peter Zeihan! 😂
😂
I miss the hats
Mine is Dementia Joey goes to the Ice Cream Shop.
One of the major reasons that Millennials are not having more kids or not having kids AT ALL is the high cost of living. They know it's only going to get worse as do Zoomers. Wagging a finger in admonishment to them will only get you a finger in return. Their future outlook will have to improve BEFORE they start having more kids. IF the future economic outlook requires more kids, then something needs to be done NOW to offset the high cost of living in order to facilitate that. The cost of childcare is untenable no matter where in the US and that's just one expense. When the powers-that-be are doing absolutely squat to remediate the increased financial burden of childrearing, it's a very responsible decision not to have kids.
100%. People would have more kids if they could afford it. My wife and I bought a house about the same size as my parents and it cost 3x as much. My parents had 3 kids, hers had 4, we're looking at 1 or 2. And I'm dreading the child care costs.
Meanwhile I'm watching people in my area hoping for Trump. They don't care about outcomes or understand policy, they just know it's an existential fight and somehow they got convinced Team Red is the best option.
Tune in next week to see if Peter got out of the canyon or not... 😂
Peter is dropped off by chopper in reality
Peter should stop hiking in the mountains -- lack of oxygen is making him both demented and delusional.
@@richardlellip.e.m.b.a.7969 lol
"the fed has a lot of tools"
> opens toolbox
> there's only one tool
It's a hammer
The Fed is a HUGELY overblown and over-glorified bank clearing house. There has not been a reserve requirement for several years now, so it has even less tools than it historically had. Basically the only lever it still has is setting the interest rate on bank reserves held on account at the Fed.
2 tools - interest rates & balance sheet management (which they've only passively targeted). But, yeah, not a lot to work with.
Lol
@@Meton2526 Quantitative Easing is a dangerous tool they have overused in the past and caused massive inflation.
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
Absolutely! Most undervalue advisors, but their expertise and risk mitigation strategies are invaluable for savvy investors. For those with busy schedules, monitoring the market is challenging, so we delegate to experts. I'm currently working with one, and my portfolio has grown to $1.3M, a 25% increase from last year, with robust diversification and inflation hedging.
fascinating! I am new to this whole thing. I've heard that now is a wonderful time to buy, and basically, I have some cash hanging around in the bank that I would really like to spend, especially since inflation is at an all-time high. Who is this coach that helps you, and may I check them up?
One of the fiduciaries I deal with is Melissa Elise Robinson. Just check the name. There would be a letter with the necessary information to set up an appointment.
I'm grateful for this advice. Finding your coach wasn't too hard. I researched her well before arranging to speak with her on the phone. Considering her resume, she appears competent.
How many hours per day is Peter hiking? I'm happy to do it once per year 😂
One may think it's an outdoors channel 😂
He has a snail chasing after him
He's a hikoholic.
It helps him think more clearly so part of his job really.
At this point, I think he's one with the trails.
Anyone else remember when they were calling it "transitory Inflation"?
10% or more for longer (a decade) sounds more accurate. Yeah they were lying to us.
Came from politicians so if course they were lying. And the $$$$$ the USA government isn't helping. Perhaps Mr population is getting older wouldn't mind discussing this?
@@mann8098 Hey, a decade is temporary...
@@RTBird2 No, it didn't come from politicians, it came from bureaucrats.
@user-uz8nu2lp9x- Yes, I remember, but it doesn't matter anyway, they will just change the definition of "transitory", just like they did with "recession".
As a millennial I want to have kids. We had one who passed away in 2022. We're trying to rebuild and pick things back up... but the environment we're in where rent keeps rising and cost of living keeps squeezing us, it becomes just too much...
My deepest heartfelt sympathy for your loss. I lost a "grown adult" child in 2013, and I still haven't gotten over it. Keep trying though, it IS worth the struggle, WC.
Note all the corporations buying up property. You ain't see nuthin' yet.
Why you want a kid for? So it can take care of you when you're old?
I am going to say something that most people do not like. Just go and try for a baby. Do not think about economics just do it. Nobody can predict the future.
@@Art-is-craft hahahahah stupid as hell
Everything Peter says I take with a grain of salt.
Disgustingly ignorant and apologetic for the stealing of inflation.
@@TJ-Stackin begs the question why you watch
One should take everything any public figure says with a grain of salt. Zeihan at least has a consistent model of the world he riffs on.
A shaker full of salt. I'm going to start hiding his videos. He should stick with his oil supply chain content. Saying that everything occurs due to demographic trends is way too narrow minded.
I take it with a whole peppercorn.
"Hey everyone, Peter Zeihan here, coming to you on day 5 since I took a wrong turn off the trail during a solo hike deep in the Canadian tundra. I'm currently subsisting on snow and the occasional bit of moss, but today, we're going to take a look at what the Biden administration is doing to get a grip on interest rates."
LOL You are funny BronzeM
"Hey everyone, Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from the irradiated wastes of New Columbia. This one's gonna be quick cause there's a hoard of zombies after me, whew! The latest news is that the armed biker gangs have taken hold of a couple of power plants in the California Republic. Here's how this will affect our manufacturing base..."
I was able to help a family of Bigfoot to find the lake they were looking for, where fish were plentiful. The US now has trade relations with the Chakahotee tribe of Bigfoot.
However the birth rate among Bigfoot is shockingly low and their demographic outlook is rather grim.
🤣🤣
@@protorhinocerator142😂😂😂😂😂. And their population is aging.... surprise!
The Fed sets the Fed Funds Rate, not the Prime rate. The FFR is an overnight rate (short-term), and has a limited effect on long-term rates (which is why the Fed had to do things like Operation Twist etc etc)
I want to learn more about the fed. Where do you recommend I look?
@maxbooth179 look up Ron Paul, Hayek and von mises regarding the federal reserve.
Right. Prime rate is the rate banks set for each other.
@@maxbooth179 Go to their website, they have some educational materials, as do each of the Federal Reserve banks. They will reference other material/books/etc, and you can branch out your knowledge from there. Also, look at the course requirements for a university finance or economics degree, and read those textbooks.
Prime Rate is directly derived from the FFR (usually FFR + 3 percentage points), so in practice, the fed indirectly sets the Prime Rate.
Most Americans don’t even have anywhere near 1 million saved. Some have close to nothing going into retirement - my question, considering inflation/recession, what is really important for someone approaching 50, Is it paying off mortgage or saving aggressively?
consider financial planning.
@@Jtreeco It really isn’t about how much you save, it’s about how you manage your money. Whether you work to earn income or invest, it still boils down to income vs expenses, so yeah you may look into financial advisors for a strategy that suits your timing.
@@AlbrechtKoch-n9e I totally agree, I'm 56 and newly retired with about 1.2 million outside retirement funds, no debt, and very small dollars in retirement funds compared to my portfolio balance over the past 3 years till date. tbh, the role of the invt-advisor can only be overlooked, not denied. just have to do your research in finding a reputable one.
@@ChunLiu-e4l That's fascinating. How can I contact a planner and vet them? as I am in fix and contemplating my options, consulting with a pro has been on my mind.
Not just nothing but negative savings.
If I can barely afford groceries and rent/mortgage how the hell do think I can afford children, Peter?
Shut up and consume. Gdp go up, life good
You heard Peter, it's not a big deal :)
Love to see old Pete spew the Life is Good speech to the Walmart shoppers in Iowa on a Saturday morning. 😂😂😂😂
Nothing left but his "man bun".
@@JJthename55it's almost like the economy and individual family economic situations aren't the same!
Peter only speaks to the 30% that doesn't live paycheck to paycheck. It's that elitism he is privy to.
Have more kids? Make it affordable
Study how hispanics do it. They have 0.3 more kids on average than you do ...
“The only example we have is feudal”
Seems that’s the model many are selecting.
Hail King Trump! /s
Are you sure he said feudal? I thought it was 'futile'... 🤔
It’s amusing this fixation on interest rates while no one discusses the effects of just….printing more money.
Exactly. But doing that he'd have to criticize the Biden admin and his boss.
It's been discussed, quite a lot actually
Someone go dig Volcher up. This half assing interest rate hikes is dragging this thing out. 16% next quarter or bust. This has nothing to do with all my cash on the sidelines that would love to find a home in a 10 year 16% treasury.
You Don't Mess with the Zeihan
Funniest one so far
Clever
Legend has it, he's in still in that canyon. Talking to himself in an ever increasing pessimistic tone.
new day new hike for peter!
This is clearly a clown show. He is being told what to say buy clowns living in a bubble that is popping.
U.S. tax dollars wasted on paying a man-child to hick and play smart.
Problem, He is always wrong and is telling everyone "Left good" as the burn the U.S. down.
Perer: "Millennials, have more children!"
Me, a millennial who can't afford to buy a house: "No."
Don’t be fooled by the “American dream” that buying a house is the only way.
It’s ok to rent as long as you are living below your means and investing.
Most Americans don’t have the discipline to save, that’s why they need a house, forced savings.
Just be smart and live below your means.
Your ancestors had kids under FAR worse conditions.
In fact, besides maybe the 90's, this is the best time to have kids, perhaps in human history.
Energy and food abundance. Relative peace. Economic outlook? Eh- could be a lot better but could be worse.
@chriswhite3692 Good for them, but my desire to not have children has already led me to have a vasectomy. Children are great, and people who want to have children are also great. I've personally decided that's not for me.
@@XenoDrake Well, don't feel to bad then when you're 70+ and there's not enough young working adults to caregive for you.
Having kids is a societal obligation; if you don't do your part then don't expect the beneifts from it.
@@chrisjackson1215 I Don't even know what to say to that. I made the choice to not have children because the society I live in has made it too expensive for me to. And now you think I am obliged to care about a society that doesn't care about me? I am reminded of The Count of Monte Cristo, when the count is having breakfast with Morcerf, Chapter 40...
"Perhaps what I am about to say may seem strange to you, who are socialists, and vaunt humanity and your duty to your neighbor, but I never seek to protect a society which does not protect me, and which I will even say, generally occupies itself about me only to injure me; and thus by giving them a low place in my esteem, and preserving a neutrality towards them, it is society and my neighbor who are indebted to me.”
I can hear the howl now if the Fed actually did 'something' about inflation. 'Something' can be only one thing. Raise interest rates. Period. Unfortunately, American consumers and American business want it both ways, i.e., low inflation and low interest rates. Can't do both. Choose one.
I was under the impression that when Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, inflation would then be reduced.
Why not have businesses of a certain size justify their price hikes in a similar way as they havrvto report their revenue, balance sheet and cash flow?
@@GoodAtheistAlway Too many variables. Besides that violates the conservative tenet that government should not influence business either way. That's their main beef with the Federal Reserve. Extreme conservatives don't believe in any quasi-government entity setting interest rate at all ever. They believe if left alone, laisse faire, business would self regulate. Unfortunately, that would bring wild swings in economic activity. We'd be in depression or a boom all the time with no stability.
@@georgepretnick4460 Chinese are managing their economy with other tenets and are more successful. They seem to be capable of managing their economies better than the US. The Chinese seem to have learned from the successes of Japan before the US put a stop to it with the Plaza accords, France with de Gaulle and other west--European countries with their leaders that had a more or less planned economy until the private companies took over in the 70ies, same with Sout-Korea and Sweden an so on until in all cases the US put an end to them instead of following their lead. The casino economies broke the spirit of these economies.
In any case China produces almost everything and it lacks for the moment energy. They have no inflation (0.3%) and a GDP growth of 5%. It beats me to understand why the US is confident to have the right knowledge as far as the economy is concerned.
Anyway the Chinese are leaving the US Universities in droves.
@@BabyGirlDontEvenPlay lol
I love hiking. Looks like a good place to hike.
I mean this has also really been in the making since 2008. Even after the economy recovered the fed kept interest rates artificially low for 15 years, it's just finally starting to catch up to us..
Translation: Nothing, just making it worse.
👍
The options you have are they stand there and do nothing and nothing changes or they get themselves involved and make it worse. Those are the only options
@Noonesbusiness we could end the fed and stop paying interest on money printed and leave it to the us treasury department, but what do I know
Disgustingly ignorant and apologetic for the stealing of inflation.
Not a whole lot. Unless the rest of the world does the same thing, ending the federal reserve will be a massive economic competitive disadvantage.
Should they raise interest rates in general, but do something like Japanese window guidance to give advantage to economically important areas (the ones you're talking about)?
Thank you
I want to create a Sierra Online-style game where you play as Peter and you have to meet your daily upload schedule while also managing resources to survive whatever wilderness Peter happens to be in.
1. Thank You Mr. Zeihan, for sharing Your perspective. 2. I submit that the fed may have lots of (debasement) tools, but only one result (debasement). Like a drawer full of flat head screwdrivers. 3. Happy Fourth Turning.
Disgustingly ignorant and apologetic for the stealing of inflation.
We are in the Crisis turning period!
he’s wrong… a lot.
I think I am seeing another factor in the "inflation equation". Two mega grocers who wanted to merge were told no. The supermarket closest to me (that is part of one of the mega chains) appears to have raised prices considerably. Enough to drive business way down. Shoppers can use the local Walmart to find far lower prices. So why do this ? The mega-grocer can eventually shut the store down as that location's business declines. And operation costs are reduced. Another major sector of our economy is also seeing the impact of anti-competitive collusion. There is really no law that forces a capitalist to compete. And costs and barriers to enter that market are significant enough to dissuade new participants. The unspoken collusion is also difficult to prove, hence no anti-trust suits.
The options available to "mega business" are numerous.
Restraint of trade is a federal, state, and local crime in most jurisdictions and NOWADAYS, with all the digital tools available to people with even moderate talent, can be proven rather easily! One needs to ascertain the honesty of the politics involved at all three levels!
Peter, you are my favorite content creator. Absolutely love watching you every day!
I used to feel the same way. Go back and watch the progression of his presentations. You'll see he's mostly only accurate in the obvious to near-obvious range. In fact, his biases cause him to miss many obvious conclusions.
@@tomluft863his biases towards?
All this is a well and good thought BUT our industry leaders and politicians in general lack the mind set and ability to think beyond what they will eat for breakfast tomorrow.
millennial here; 70% of us can't afford to have kids, like literally, 2 parent house hold, full-timers and we barely can pay rent each month. There are no affordable housing, so we are forced to rent in a barely regulated market. we wont get SS benefits when we "retire".
there is no motivation for us to have "more kids", sadly.
It doesn't stop latinos from breeding like rabbits, maybe study them for ideas?
Study how Hispanics do it! They used to have one more kid per family and now its only 0.3, but still - they are certainly doing something right and you are doing something wrong ..
Good cause every generation after the Xers have proven to be disappointing to say the least
The problem with labor is not that there aren't enough workers, but that huge swathes of potential labor have been removed from the labor pool by rendering them "unemployable." Currently in the U.S. virtually all of the homeless and itinerant, and a significant number of those on "disability" ("the new welfare"), can't get hired no matter how willing they may be to work. It should be clear that the goal should be to rehabilitate them, and stop snubbing them, so that we may all benefit from their productivity, while simultaneously alleviating their suffering, which is an immense embarrassment to such a wealthy nation. Currently these populations are consuming at an impoverished rate, while producing nothing. This benefits no one.
Ever tried to hire an "unemployable"? They render themselves unemployable...
Please provide sources and actual data points. Thats just like me saying all homeless are junkies and providing no proof.
Umm, a lot of the homeless are severely mentally ill and drug addicted. They are not employable.
@@888sfarrar I _am_ an unemployable, and also a damn dependable and productive worker. For those who aren't, note that I mentioned rehabilitation. For many, that simply means meeting fundamental needs of housing, so that they may bathe, do laundry, and have safety and stability. For some, it means providing for healthcare needs. These are _not_ unrealistic or unachievable goals, as has been amply proven in nations who have already done so successfully. The defeatism and lack of political will is the problem to be solved, not the feasibility.
Yeah crawkn You've been drinking the walk Kool-Aid. Well, I don't disagree with you that there are a fair number of people out there who would like to work but for whom there are no jobs are not unemployed, because there are no jobs. They're unemployed because they're unqualified for the jobs because they haven't changed to meet the demands of the jobs. That or they've changed to not meet the demands of the jobs. A lot of people think they deserve a lot more than they actually do for the service that they render. That's why immigrants are taking up the slack because they'll do the work.
If you don't believe this then just spend a little time in the work world talk to some hiring managers and you'll find out just how hard it is to find people that are willing and able to do the work.
1:06 I love how this implies they met without him, like he was _supposed_ to be in the room but they met without him.
So stocks go up?
34yo dad here. I'll have another kid when it's beneficial. My wife works part time, she would lose half her pay check every month for child care. The average cost for child care in my metro is 16k. If I could write off more than 3k from the child tax credit I would be more willing to pay that cost. Childcare needs a overhaul in this country in order for my generation to consider the possibility of having kids.
Tell your wife to quit her job, Have 5 more kids. Live somewhere cheap (the world is a big place). Live for your kids not yourself. Praise God.
@@halidogmanthehero917 🤣🤣🤣 so forget my dreams my goals or her goals and just PUMP out kids. Got it. Thanks.
@@Michael-bh9ss Not telling you what to do at all, but as someone who has two teenage kids and a successful career, I'd trade career success for having had more kids. Kids yield more life satisfaction than anything. That's my personal experience.
@@Michael-bh9ss
Dreams?
Having children should be the dream. Having a fancy car, tv set or larger home is not going to compare to having children. Too many people today are focused on the here and now and dreams.
@@Art-is-craft you know nothing about me and telling me to take on another soul where I can barely support the the family I have. Idk if you guys are trolling me or just ignorant. Also no one under 50 says TV set so I know you and I are a lifetime apart on life experiences.
Raise tariffs, cut internal taxes, then raise interest rates anyway.
Low interest rates in the midst of a high-inflation environment means a crowding-out of real estate. That's what's happening now.
Have you seen the interest rates…. Low is the opposite of what they are
@andrewskokan6372 the interest rate now is what I'd describe as normal. Interest rates in the 70s and 80s went into the double digits, and that's how the Boomers were able to buy their homes.
@@andrewskokan6372
Interest rates are not high.
Inflation outpacing wage growth is a real problem. I have recruiters trying to poach me but offering starting pay of 5 years ago, in a skilled field. It's quite common.
Milton Friedman: Inflation is always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon.
He is talking about long term inflation not short market cycles. A good monetary and banking system would not stop the current inflation cycle.
Going forward, it comes down to one thing. Freedom, and that's in North America, so let's ensure we keep it. There's no place left to immigrant to.
I'm an Aussie, and I always wanted to come live in America. Can I still migrate there?
America is free. Canada? Not so much. Mexico? Well, Mexico is just different and fun :)
@@matthewstevens315 You can if you want. I would suggest you visit first and perhaps do a walkabout for a year first and see if you really want to live inside the asylum.
Still looking forward to Peter and Steve Keen sitting down to talk. If your population is declining, demand for stuff doesn’t stop, it slows. Big difference. Even in that condition, an economy will still need lots of activity just to maintain standards of living. People will still travel, need new roofs, lawns mowed, etc.
Keen is clueless about economics. Just like Peter.
Disgustingly ignorant and apologetic for the stealing of inflation.
A lot of what Peter says is that America needs to rebuild it's industrial base because we will still need things and won't be able to buy them from places where we were getting them. Because those places are in demographic decline.
Peter has some interesting assertions. His admiration for the industrial potential Mexico is one. Yeah...we'll just ignore that cartel corruption dominates the politics of Mexico. And if they DO ever become an economic/industrial powerhouse, they will turn their backs on the USA and invite China in...if they haven't already. But China and their balloons are nothing to worry about, right Peter?
@@nurfuis It is not just demographic decline; it is also geopolitical warfare with competing markets. The markets and manufacturing are shifting.
You got this, Peter!
The lost wilderness is beautiful, I grew up camping there
Thanks Peter
Disgustingly ignorant and apologetic for the stealing of inflation.
“Millenials have more kids….” Between childcare costs and housing… We can’t afford them, buddy!
Jerk
Just adding that it is starting to be a Gen Z issue, not Millennials. Older Millennials are into their 40s. A huge part of the problem is that we have let people go to college and prolong early adulthood, thus cutting down the number of prime baby making years. Watch the first 2 minutes of Idiocracy and you'll see what I'm talking about.
It has never been different - when you have children your standard of living goes down. The difference being the "rich" get an additional tax on their free time and the "poor" get additional tax on their free time and disposable income. It has ALWAYS been that way.
People think that they can have children and keep their standard of living - they can't and they almost never could. It's the 50 years of post-WW2 growth that has lead people to believe, that you can somehow cheat 2nd Law of Thermodynamics and increase your wealth while having kids - you can't.
What child rearing takes away in higher costs usually brings back in increase in emotional well-being of the parents... 30-50 years after the children are born. That is the trade and it has always been that way since people had been having kinds.
It depends. Are you willing to change your lifestyle. I have two new grandchildren born last August and February. Child care is $3000 per month per baby. Yep that's steep. I'm sure it will decrease when they are toddlers. You have options. A stay at home parent? Working part time? Working different schedules? You may not be able to buy a new car or eat out as frequently. Even if you didn't you have to watch more closely how you spend your money. Buy things only when they are on sale. My point is, it's doable. Yes it will change your lifestyle, it will anyway regardless of your financial situation
Acquire highly marketable skills and kids/houses suddenly become affordable again- Father of 3 millennials who are crushing it.
One of these days I'm just going to spend some time in Colorado and go out to the mountains everyday and see if I can strike up a conversation with Peter. 😅
What do you think about mBridge vs SWIFT, and BRICS vs Eurodollar vs Bitcoin?
Excellent coverage. Respect from Australia.
The money supply increases at an annualized rate of 5% last month. Congress is borrowing about $1 trillion every 100 days. The Fed is doing its best to fight Congress.
There are no good solutions due to previous Fed rates being too low for multiple decades and federal spending being out of control
@geoffrobinson
Agree. The Fed seems to be forcing the issue of even a modicum of fiscal responsibility upon a feckless, crave Congress. When interest on the debt reaches twice of what the remaining budgetary items include then they they may start the think about maybe talking about some minimal measures.
Not really. The solution is higher rates.
Love all of your information and insight. The beautiful hikes make me miss living in Colorado!
I appreciate your candor on the limits of your perspective. The Fed has a Sisyphus like task with endless criticism. Few people actually understand what they have to consider in setting rate policy.
Worth remembering the Roman's stopped their expansion [of the land base*] in 117CE. In the three hundred years that followed, they never quiet figured out how to live within their limits, before the hordes arrived from the east, via the Northern European Plains. *In an agrarian society, band base is everything.
Throw in government that is more about infighting and making money for themselves than running a good country. In the end, many move into the church for land and freedom from taxes and are still around today. The change wasn't all bad. But that's a story for another day.
WTF is band base?? You do realize that, just like the British Empire, it just became too big and expensive to maintain and thus further expand! Do some basic research before just postulating nonsensical stupidity! That's the PRIMARY problem with the world right now! Everybody's THINKS they are an expert! That's the great thing about arseholes and opinions; everybody's got one!
pretty simplistic. Rome was hit by the plague which wiped out around 50% of the population. The Empire was split in 2 by rival members. The list goes on. Disease, infighting, and corruption did them in.
Yeah? And the Romans didn't have nukes either, did they? Let the hordes come.
Romans stopped their expansion because they were a naval based empire. The technology of the era made it difficult to move beyond their actually coastal empire.
The middle class was far more prosperous when the Fed inflation target was "between 2 and 3 percent", than when they successfully kept it at or below 2 percent.
They don't want ppl being prosperous they Want us to be subservient and manageable like a commodity you know a human resource.
The middle class was even more prosperous when there was deflation during the gold standard.
It's easy to be prosperous when your $50K/yr household casually uses $10K-$25K of credit spend every year for decades and doesn't pay a dollar off. That's exactly what the US does as a country. That's not real prosperity, it's thievery from the children, but hey, who cares right?
The MC was prosperous when corporations weren't considered citizens and allowed to run rough shod with greedy bandits at the reins stampeding over the population, while hoovering up every cent they could get their grubby hands on!
@@benweiss4956 It basically came into existence to a significant degree because of the professionals that the GI bill generated after WW2.
Ha! "Millennials have more kids." That's not going to happen so long as daycare is essentially a second mortgage payment every month
voice in the wilderness
“You suck, Zeihan!”
We love Peter in Canada. Thank you for all you do Peter.
What do you love? The fact that he is always wrong and is paid buy the Feds to be a man-child?
I get it, Take from very poor people (taxes) and give it to Peter because feels good to hear lies.
@CanadianAnglican - Americans would love him in Canada too.
Speak for yourself. This eloquent bullshitter is not fooling everyone but you.
So any of us caught in the middle are just fucked cool. Glad I busted my arse to earn close to six figures and can barely afford rent
if you can barely afford rent on six figures you need to get better at handling money lol
If you’re earning six figures, you can easily afford a very nice apartment or small house in Pittsburgh, where I live. The cost of housing varies wildly based on location. Maybe you should think about moving.
More money won't make you better at managing money.
Bro I'm just a dishwasher working part time and I can afford rent. If you're on a 6-figure salary and can't live off of that, that's a YOU problem.
@@kidlatazulBut he probably wouldn’t be earning nearly so much in Pittsburgh, either. I went from $140k in the Silicon Valley to $70k in Pennsylvania and my living standard is just about the same.
Zeihan, what do you think about the election in the UK?
UK is about to enter a 1970s like economy. Everything is now lined up for it. The left will blame brexit just like they blamed Thatcher.
Thank you Peter for making me feel better about the state of the United States. Going to go mainline America F Yeah and continue working through my copy of your book.
In a Haas BS Macro class in 1983, professor and former SF Fed President Sherman Maisel offered that 2% CPI inflation as a optimal target for the autonomous US economy over the longer term absent exogenous shocks.
It was low enough to keep price growth to a minimum but high enough to give some margin against the danger of systemic deflation which is a acute disaster freezing the economic system by incentivizing postponing purchases for better prices.
1..Avoid deflation
2. Keep it pretty low
3. Avoid massive inflation.
Actual number may be different now due to different economic structure of US economy now.
How about end the Fed Bank. Worked great in the past and people had massive freedom, wealth and America became a world power.
What nobody talks about openly is that higher CPI devalues fixed national debt faster allowing more borrowing vs inflated GDP.
This occurs when inflation exceeds the growth of the labor rate.
It can have a profound effect over 10 or 20 years due to compounding.
My dad pointed that out 50 years ago. Very true.
That’s a nice way of say the collapse of the dollar and hyperinflation.
US national debt is not a promissory. It is an accounting exercise that is no where near its limit.
I like the way you think, Peter. Seriously, I wish I could think and convey a complicated explanation as steadily. Never sure whether you're right or wrong, but it's usually thought provoking. Can you please make a video and tell us all about Putin; i.e. is he the world's Sauron, does he hold kompromat on Trump, what's likely to happen IYO? Thanks.
Peter I want to hear you take on AGI and robot workers and how they might play into this if AGI is successfully developed. How do you value a company that can create it's own workers and is constrained only by resources and capitol?
It’s disappointing that in his analysis on inflation, Peter completely ignores government spending and it’s affects on inflation as that is, if not the largest then at worst the second largest contributor to inflation
Why point out that the two party system is a prime driver of inflation. He doesn’t want it to affect his internationalist outlook.
How is it the largest or 2nd largest contributor? I’m sure government spending can affect the prices rising but I’m not sure how it would be the largest factor now considering everything else we just went through like Covid and supply chain breakdowns. I’d even say that greed is a larger factor than government spending.
@@waywardgeologist2520 well, maybe you'll get your wish, and get your own New Liberal Party, with imports.
I wouldn't recommend it!
@@PervySage13No, it’s the cost of energy…which Biden is to blame for 100%. He made us dependent on other countries for energy, he started a proxy war with Russia, and increased regulations on new oil/natural gas/nuclear production in America….all goods are moved by energy…those costs go up, the cost of good go up…that is reality. Those costs go down, then smaller companies can compete in the market making larger companies drive down prices. Come on man, just think..and yes government spending is the second largest factor because most never jobs are government jobs that Biden created other then people just going back to their original jobs or job market following the poor handing of COVID (lock downs). Then look at the billions we have given to other countries…that adds to it as well. Come on man…lol
@@PervySage13 40% of the money in circulation was printed since covid, more money chasing the same goods = goods get more expensive . Also Public debt , people and business borrowing money is the main driver of our economy and for the first time in our history the government is borrowing more than its people . Think of raising interest rates as a way to take money out of the economy , slow it down Since they put so much money into it . But they continue to print money like crazy so its not slowing down and with the higher interest rates the government needs to print money just to pay for the interest on the national debt since its now the single largest expense , more than our military .
Also all the rules and regulation to go green isnt helping , when energy gets more expensive so does everything else .
so yes were doing it to our selves by continuing to vote idiots into office .
And much of the world uses the dollar so when it hits us hard , it usually hits them harder .
Mr. Zeihan, you speak more truth than anyone I follow - in fact - you are one of the bravest commentators out there - so you're forgiven for referring to the Fed Funds Rate as the Prime Rate . Banks are thankful that's not the case because the Prime is running 3% and more on top of Fed Funds just now. Paid 12.5% for my first 25-year mortgage - so many people are too young to know that the current rates are just "middlin'".
Keep up the great work.
Baxman must be a contemporary! I do remember my first 15 year mortgage at exactly (12.5%) was a killer, however, I was at the time, a very high net, salaried earner thus, it just "came off the top!" Nonetheless, that was approx. 37 years ago when a relatively modest single family in a really good neighborhood in NYC, with a great school district cost around $175K. IF I recall correctly, I actually paid it off earlier w/o penalty.
Thanks. I was looking for this comment before making it myself.
And, yes, I also trust Mr Zeihan more than all but a few commentators.
Hey, Peter! Serious question here. What kind of pack do you use and what all do you carry when you're hiking?
what are the creative tools? Isn't it mostly the interest rate?
The models are indeed no longer relevant. One thing Peter often talks about is the baby boomers taking their money out of stocks and putting it into bonds. Check out this article from the Wall Street Journal titled "These Hot New Funds Are ‘Boomer Candy’ for Retirees". The boomer generation (full disclosure, I are one) was already unprecedented. This is just another example of the difference from prior generations. This is important in the context of this video, since one of the issues Peter often talks about in regard to this industrial buildout we are experiencing is the massive capital required. Actually, I think that Peter overplays that situation. US, and European and Japanese capital are often being deployed overseas. This entails more risk for a potentially small extra return. There is plenty of capital about.
Those boomers still need the money. Even in years gone by older retirees still kept a proportion in mutual funds but it will not account for the needed withdrawals. There is just no way around it.
Easy, just tell people how well things are going for them, and how much the administration is "fighting" for them.
Disgustingly ignorant and apologetic for the stealing of inflation.
Meanwhile, the other guy's plan is, "Trust me, bro!"
they're already at the target rate if you take out the lagging data
Lol. Yeah, that's what Peter's become known for.
Peter, I wanted to take the time to personally say thank you. So, Thank you Mr. peter Zeihan. I do not agree with you on many things, but I believe that you are being as honest/fair as possible. Except when it comes to politics, to which I believe you have a case of TDS. It matters that you are as honest/open about the issues you cover, and that is enough for me. Keep up the great works.
My guy not everyone who dislikes trump has TDS, using it at a way to write off people’s opinion is complete cope
He’s a very divisive person regardless of who you are on the political isle, he’s also semi authoritarian so there’s that.
Peter, has major TDS. I mean it's pretty simple: Our country was a lot better off during Trump than Biden.
@@Castleknight 100%!
@@Castleknight Define better? Before covid it’s kinda hard to gauge where the country should be at now
how can you compare the country under trump when in his last year he put 8trillion to the deficit, and biden then did like 3 or 4 trillion
it’s kinda insane imo, we’re a diff country then when the economy was doing good overall in 2019
Peter, .. how about if there were no more extra $ being introduced, into the system? Thus, having a stable amount of money, with the understanding that there won't be any new (more) money, which causes the money to lose it's purchasing value, in the future?
The Fed doesn't set the prime rate, they set the Federal Funds rate. Econ101.
Disgustingly ignorant and apologetic for the stealing of inflation.
funds rate deterimined longer term rates
The existence of the Fed is bad enough, but congress actually directing Fed policy would be a nightmare. There's a flawed belief that if you put smart enough people in charge, you can "manage" an economy. Problem is, nobody (or group of people) is that smart or knows enough to do it. Macro economics is modern day reading of tea leafs using math models. Sure, it guesses right once in a while, but the error rate is higher than most are willing to admit to.
Found the moron.
What’s the answer, walk around with a bag of gold dust and a scale?
@@drachenmarke Nothing wrong with debt notes (that's what a dollar bill is), but have it actually backed by something. If you check history, backing notes with tangible commodities works. But that's not the real problem with the Fed. The problem with the Fed is how it violates it's own mission statement of maintaining a strong dollar by maintaining an inflation rate, which devalues the currency over time, and is a tax (disincentive) on savings.
Another thought provoking opinion, thank you. A very US component of inflation is the effect that deregulation has had on making the market inefficient - allowing concentration of economic power in corporate monopolies and oligopolies to remove the benefits of competition. Congressional action to stiffen antitrust, disallow stock buy-backs, and treat all income as equally taxable (all of which were true at one time in the 20th century) would both reduce inflation and increase productive capacity in the US.
I wish Peter would take me hiking in Colorado 😊
I doubt if many of the chair warriors watching this video( including myself) could keep up.⚰️
Zeihan go off the tracks and look for the entrence of the ancient city of gold, we all be ritch no inflation anymore
🤣I am sure I have already been shadow band, Only thing the CIA is good at.
Still, That is funny.
More probably: gold would become near worthless and nothing would change except people who invested in gold at old prices would lose most of their money. Of course all of Congress will have sold off their gold holdings because of reports by the agents that have been following Peter and his curious and quite suspicious behavior of apparently hiking in the wilderness, alone, everywhere on earth, and doing god knows what, under the cover of a video blog.
…until gold becomes so plentiful that it loses all value and gets used for frying pans.
(Look up aluminum and The Washington Monument for an example of a precious metal becoming common and merely useful.)
@@ironwoodworkman4917 "shadow band"? OMG, really?
We'll be "ritch", will we?
LOL, you have completely lost the plot.
4:08 maybe replace the infinity growth system with on that valves human dignity
I have been binging this channel daily since the Joe Rogan interview and dinner a couple of days UA-cam has stopped suggesting the videos daily to me. Just an info
So many thanks for such a premium analytics.
Hey Peter, will the AI revolution not pick up the slack from the lack of labour????
If the people replaced by AI retrain to an in demand job, I could see it happening, but as an example, how many graphic designers and copywriters are going to retrain to be drywallers, electricians, and plumbers?
The AI revolution will likely negate jobs for things that people don't physically need. AI is essentially a "brains" task completer, not a "body" task doer. AI won't build/repair houses, roads, cars, or any other "stuff".
The AI that is being developed right now is not GENERAL AI (general ai being the type of ai shown in movies... the type of ai that can pass as human or control a robot as a physical body).
The AI being developed right now is a stopgap for super repetitive, low risk, low supervision required processes. Don't buy into either the ai hype OR ai doom, the people selling it are just trying to make enough noise to make a buck😂
The people AI might replace aren't people that will pick up a trade
If you follow PZ and agree with his logic, we won't likely have the chips to use for extensive AI.
Time will tell if that is a real thing or a story that we told ourselves.
Markets certainly bet on lower rates considering the yield curve inversion
Just checking, are we using the “money in circulation” or the “prices increasing” definition of inflation?
Yes!
There is no "money in circulation" increasing prices. The rich have too much money.
Fed policies of increasing money through QE does not increase money in circulation, but does increase the price of assets (stocks, bonds, housing) so the rich have gotten much richer since 2008, but everyone who does not have these assets did not prosper. However, there was no inflation outside of asset inflation. When the government borrowed massive amounts of money to pay everyone when they shut down the economy after COVID- in addition to running QE on steroids- there was price inflation for the cost of goods and services for everyone, but the rich still got richer. Fed policy has been a huge source of wealth inequality since 2008.
Colorado is such a beautiful state.
One of the Best, If not `THE Best` cognitive, geo-political narratives available anywhere, in my view. Clear precise, thought provoking. well done Peter
Americans and their Columbus analogies are always fun. How the hell was Columbus the instigator of globalization by 1492 when Portugal was mapping the coast of Africa already by 1434 and reached India by 1498?
As a small business owner how should I handle raising my prices?
Peter... What are your thoughts on project 2025?
What do we expect to see in global shift if project 2025 occurs?
I second that it’s a great question and i have a feeling once this holiday weekend news cycle ends Monday we’re about it from the mainstream media a lot more.
It sound terrifying tbh
Been following you for some time. None of your macro calls seem to be working out
😂
We need a backpacking gear loadout video.
The prime rate is a benchmark interest rate that banks use to determine how much interest to charge their customers on loans, while the federal funds rate is Fed's mandated overnight lending rate. They are similar things, but they're different, the former being higher than the latter.
Dang Z your outlook is going to make the fearmongers, apocalyptics and haters go nuts. Wait check that last part .- go more nuts.
PLEASE run for President
😂
Yes please!
@TheBKnight3- Cuba or Venezuela already have that type of person for president, where else do you suggest?
At best he would hike for president.
@@JohnSmith-ti2kphe’s not a socialist, don’t know how you think he is one. He is a fiscal conservative which is what republicans before trump was known as
Interestingly, no mention of the economy being driven by the governmental fiscal dominance problem. The Fed design did not assume the government's massive fiscal spending driving the economy's money supply.
Seeing that selling bonds is a major way corporations raise capital, what is the relation of the Federal Reserve to the interest rate on bonds?
🧦Wool socks to bed = most rem sleep possible 🟪🟨🟣🟫
Ya know......we don't actually need a federal reserve at all. Interest rates (the price of borrowing money) could be determined (like all other prices) by supply and demand. I wouldn't mention this except that all recessions in the last hundred years have been caused by the Federal Reserve screwing up. You see, they're not very good.
Ever heard of the recession of 1907?
Dumbest comment here. You'd get extreme booms and busts that would make 2008 look normal. They're not perfect but they do provide a much needed counter-cyclical pressure.
Extreme booms and busts are what we have now. Because the fed is ALWAYS wrong. From causing the great depression to declaring, just a year ago, that inflation was only "transitory."
Nice scenery. I love the scenery mountains or Beach.
So no more raising of rates to combat inflation = more inflation for longer. They'll have to lower rates to stimulate the growth of the industrial plant = more inflation. Everything will be more expensive. Assets will go up in price. Cryptocurrencies should not have any value but will remain pricey and volatile. And we are forced to speculate/ invest (it's the same thing) because in the bank our money loses at least 10% of its value yearly.