Forecast Discussion - March 24, 2024 - Classic Plains Tornado Setup Today, Southeast QLCS Tomorrow
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- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Today begins our multi-day stretch of possibly significant severe weather from the Plains to the Southeast. The SPC has maintained Slight Risks (level 2/5) for today across Kansas/Oklahoma and tomorrow (Monday, March 25) centered on Louisiana/Mississippi.
A lead shortwave ahead of a highly amplified trough will eject into the southern Plains today, providing forcing scattered supercells ahead of the dryline this afternoon and evening, particularly from southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma. After a low-level dry pocket moves through this afternoon, low-level moisture will continue to stream into the region, with mid-to-upper 50s dew points common across much of southern Kansas into western and central Oklahoma. Discrete supercells will be favored, and with intense kinematics at play, all severe hazards are possible, including tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong.
The threat shifts east tomorrow, as ongoing linear convection should re-intensify tomorrow afternoon across Louisiana and Arkansas. Strong low-level shear will foster a damaging wind and tornado threat that will persist into the overnight hours as the convection moves into Mississippi.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
3:04 Discussion on today's event
37:52 Discussion on tomorrow's event
49:07 CAM analysis for today's event
52:57 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
12PM UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to enhanced risk (level 3/5) for SW/S KS into W OK mainly for increased confidence in hail-producing supercells. They opted to keep tornado probs unchanged, but a conditional strong tornado risk does exist across this corridor late this afternoon/evening.
I've downgraded my confidence in the SPC.
😂
@@JanicePhillips there's always nacho cast
Watch another incident like the Clarksville ef3 happen
They changed the tornado risk for tomorrow to a 10% hatched. I am curious as to why they didn’t do that for today but they did it for tomorrow when the tornado threat doesn’t look as good?
@@JanicePhillips sometimes the green area is the most severe
Hope you are feeling better! Thanks for the updates. You are the best!
Feeling much better; thank you! Can’t pass up a forecast update with such a classic setup like today’s.
Hello from central Minnesota. ☺️ I’m so excited for the snow. ❄️🩵 We’ve had such a dry/warm winter here, it’s nice to see some snow.
I hope you have a lovely day and everyone stays safe. 🌈
Enjoy the snow!
Always good to know you’re doing better, Mr. Trey!
Great analysis!
Thank you!
You are the only person that I know (or have heard) say the phrases "fly in the ointment" or "bugaboo" and it makes me smile every time you say those haha
Same lol
I think it's one of those age things because I'm 32 and people look at me like I'm a crazy person when I say it. I'm assuming alot of us in our age group saw pineapple express and laughed when the character said it and immediately inserted it into our vocabulary. We're really the only age group that drops it on a semi regular basis.
Now an enhanced risk.
Yes, the Forecast discussion is out :D
New subscriber i love youre break down vidoes going over every little detail.
Thanks so much!
Thanks for the update Trey. As a spotter here in Wichita, I’ll be watching those dew points later today. Really interesting setup
Darn allergies kill almost everyone but glad you're better! Thanks for the update
Thought I'd give regards to you for all the awesome stuff you post
Thanks so much!
Yeah, this is definitely starting to escalate pretty significantly in a way that this could be an extremely potent event...... I would not be surprised if we see a few strong tornadoes today.... It's amazing what the HRRR wants to push out for today.
The kinematics on the outlook for today. Looks so crazy that it's very almost May-like....crazy seeing the loaded gun soundings from OKC to DDC. This is gonna cook likely.....and one thing for sure is this is prrrrrriiiiime chase territory.
Tomorrow's risk is looking even more intriguing, too. Crazy ass system....watch it all cook next 36 hrs.
Oh and good luck on the chase today.
Feel better soon Trey! I appreciate you making these forecast discussions for us even though you’re not feeling well 🙏🏻❤️
Thank you; I’m feeling much better!
its spring baby!!!!! glad you're feeling better Trey!
Watching Trey get upset at the NAM model 😅
Sometimes it’s just atrocious with the thermos 😂
Not entirely a complete match. But I've seen some strong correlations with todays setup and the April 9, 1947 Woodward OK F5 setup.
Moisture isn't as great as 1947. But kinematics are almost identical
Thanks Trey! You are the best!
11:35 CDT- just checked SPC and they did add an enhanced area but looks like they’re still saying 5% tornado risk. Stay tuned…?
Glad you’re feeling better. Are you chasing today?
Thank you; yes, I’ll be chasing!
Both interesting setups! Great video and get well soon!
Thanks so much!
Just went enhanced
Just like you predicted
*Me seeing the Wichita metro might have a tornado today*:
YES! LOCK AND LOAD! BRING ON THE PAIN!!!!!
Just went Enhanced for hail for NW Oklahoma but here in OKC it’s mad windy & cloudy definitely looks like something is coming 🚨🚨
Excellent analysis Trey! Im so happy the algorithm steered me to your channel. Is there anyone who does analysis similar to yours for the Hatteras region/East coast on UA-cam??
Thanks so much! I’m sure there are folks out there that do, but I don’t know of anyone off the top of my head who specifically focuses on that region.
This setup actually looks a lot like May 24, 2011 except with a lot more marginal ingredients. Gotta love a classic plains tornado setup 🌪️
Great info - I was watching for your analysis this morning
Thank you!
Ugh I hate nighttime events when there's any risk of tornadoes
Nocturnal events are adrenaline maximizing
@@railfanningpoints2.045 yeah they're scary especially when you're in the area in a trailer house and disabled so can't take real shelter ugh
Great video Trey !!! And glad you're feeling better
Thank you!!
Here just southeast of fort worth texas currently (1:45pm central time) it's extremely windy (average wind speed of 25 mph from the southeast) and temperature is 64 with a dew point of 57
Feel better Trey! Thanks always for the video!
Thank you!
Great analysis and presentation. Thanks!
Thank you!
Man I hate to say it but what an absolute disaster of a NAM run. Usually when you talk about the cool bias it's off by maybe a few degrees, but a 13 degree spread between other predictions and NAM prediction is such a drastic change to the instability. That same area currently is already showing 58/53 @ 12:15pm CDT which is 4 degrees warmer than the NAM predicted @ 4pm. My only guess is the NAM was predicting early crapvection and lingering deep cloud cover over the area, but even then that's a wild spread.
Yet another example of confidence vs intensity, as well. The limited moisture, mild differences between timing and placement of convection from the CAMs, and that pocket of dry air all are leading to uncertainty about the quality of updrafts. But then you look at a sounding from an area in which we expect discrete supercells to exist and see over 200 3CAPE and over 450 m2/s2 of effective SRH and then you have to cock your head a bit at the SPC maintaining only a 5% risk. Definitely a low floor, high ceiling kind of event where if the right supercell gets going after the dry pocket moves off to the north, the low-level thermodynamics and kinematics are pretty obscene. It's a weird case where I know the SPC wouldn't want to do this but I'd almost want to add a hatched area to the 5% tornado risk to encompass the low chance but potential for long-track strong or maybe even a violent tornado or two being possible. The deep layer shear is very strong and the CAMs are modeling discreteness of long-track supercells for many hours, as well.
Idk this is a strange event. It could absolutely be a nothing-burger, but I wish the SPC had a way to accurately encompass how intense the top-end MIGHT be if the puzzle pieces come together at the right time. Hopefully people still understand a slight risk is still a risk and take the right precautions for the day. It's spring in the plains, you just gotta learn to take every risk with meaning.
Glad you're feeling better, Trey, and you may not have to go far to see a tornado or two if the CAMs are right and you get a discrete supercell near the OKC metro! Great video, as always, and looking forward to seeing how the event shakes out and hopefully any tornados stay over open farmland and don't impact anyone!
Thank you! Saw this while out chasing, so wanted to give you a full reply now that I’m back in Norman…it was a weird one. A nothing burger was exactly what happened…I think we were just a little short in the instability department. Storms went up awhile before we fully recovered from that dry pocket that moved through. Saw that funnel near Hammon, OK, but that was it. If we’d had a few more degrees of surface temps and dewpoints, we would’ve been in business. Definitely had a high ceiling anyway, but we just didn’t even come close to it today.
Glad you’re feeling better Trey. I was originally skeptical about this setup but the moisture uptrends make me think otherwise. Will be interesting to see how this event plays out. Hoping for some photogenic tornadoes in open prairie!
Thank you! I agree!
Always a good day when my best friend Trey posts 😌
(Seriously tho thank you)
Glad you’re getting to feeling better
I wasn’t very interested in this setup at first however I should’ve just trusted the negative tilt, mega trough
Great analysis as always
Man today and tmr will be interesting. If today has more moisture, we could see a strong tornado, and for tomorrow also
Of course we're on the dry side again out here in Orla and that annoying low level jet cranking in the 30's mph today. Haha, have fun and hopefully you can chase today Trey!
Thanks CJ; out in W OK now! You’ll get some storm action in no time…
I was about to say that my gut feeling is telling me this set-up will overperform, but then I saw the SPC upgraded to an enhanced risk. However I kind of still think it will overperform the current SPC outlook.
10% hatched confirmed! for tomorrow
Yep, will worry about tomorrow once today’s threat wanes
We're gonna have an all hazard today in NWKS then it's supposed to blizzerd tonight and tomorrow 😂 welcome to spring!
Hope you get better :)
Feeling much better, thank you!
5% enjoyers
We are 10% hatched for tomorrow
Yep, will worry about tomorrow once today’s threat wanes
Well that 5% region really disappointed! That 2% Tx area has look a lot better at this point.
Yeah, things were just slightly off today
I personally think this will overperform but that’s just me. We’ll have to wait until storms fire.
Hey Mr Trey....so what is a Bug-A-Boo?
I think he's using it meaning something that could cause the event to under perform or not to it's full potential
@@peachxtaehyung Oh ok brother.....I was trying to find a Bug-a-boo on the radar screen....I thought it may be new weather terminology fer a Nader or something.....
Exactly right!
What’s going on Trey, are you going to chase today?
Yessir!
😢😢😢
Me in the middle of nowhere in IA tomorrow with no tornado to be found: 🤡🎥🌽
Even though SPC doesn’t have anything, I do think there is a low end tornado risk up there tomorrow
@@ConvectiveChronicles I agree with you that there's a decent chance of a few, im in south central WI and trying to decide whether it's worth driving a few hours for
I’d give it a shot if you have the time; these setups can be sneaky up there
/|\ *searches met textbooks for 'dryline convection vomiting' :-)