@@archieherrington9955 Okay "predicted" is a little generous but I bet on all the right fights. I bet on both Sean's, Gaethje, Pantoja, Pereira, Pedro, Derrick Lewis, and Dan Hooker. Those are just the underdogs as well. I've gotten Money on the past 6 cards I've bet on now including the Mexico Card just now
MMA is hard to predict but so is Football . You would know if you follow football regularly. Iam talking about Football Football. Not American football.
Another reason that makes MMA so unpredictable is the length between fights. Assuming that most fighters compete 3-4 times a year, this provide roughly 3-4 months of training camp in between (neglecting injury, vacation, etc). Therefore, fighters are able to deeply work on weaknesses and refine their game, making their style and abilities very unpredictable come fight night. A good example is how everyone was expecting Volk to be rag dolled by Islam but he ended up holding his own, likely due to grappling work done behind the scenes for the months leading up to the fight.
@@phillustratorwdym nobody expected, literally 80% said Volk would get submitted because Ortega got him deep and hes got taken down by Mendez. The narrative always change when the dagestani didnt ragdoll lmfao
In muay thai and kickboxing, there is a surge of new fighters who come from a boxing background who are currently dominating because of their pressure and ability to nullify kicks by keeping their opponent on the backfoot. now, i never thought Sean Strickland would be the guy to demonstrate this in the UFC, but we are seeing a new meta in striking and it blew my mind when i saw this happen
@@BearJ7cbut then that ain’t boxing anymore. You can say boxing is best base, but you can’t say boxing is the best art. Cos if you put a pure boxer, who knows nothing about legkicks vs a Muay thai guy, who has poor boxing. The Muaythai still wins 9/10 times. So pure muaythai is still better than pure boxing. But a hybrid fighter is better than both. And I know this cos I train in both. I mess up Muay Mat (the heavy handed boxer type guys your describing) by using footwork, and clinchwork from Muaythai. And mess up Muaythai kickers and taekwondo guys by using forward pressure, and boxing combos. OP fighter.
@@BearJ7c boxing needing to check kicks already means it's not as good lmao, not to mention the fact it has literally zero clinch is hilarious. Keep being delusional buddy,
if this is true then explain superbon, superlek, and tawanchai. Where's the so called boxing dominance? Your prime example I bet Khalilov was shutdown like the russian rat he is.
It's the hardest sport to predict from a purely technical analysis perspective, but it's by far the easiest sport to beat the bookies in and turn a consistent profit.
another one: random fight ending Injuries, such as broken bones, torn ACL, disqualifications, excessive eye bleeding, etc. someone who's built up alot of scar tissue over many fights can get cut open more easily like Nate Diaz for example. I didnt see Strickland beating adesaynya either btw. I dont think anyone say that coming
Technically baseball has the highest underdog win % by some margin. In general there’s an extremely high correlation between number of points (I.e. chances to score) and the better team winning. It makes sense as the better plays have more opportunity to show they are better. Baseball 42% underdog wins, NBA only 25%, tennis 25%, MMA 35% Tennis is an interesting one also being (primarily) a solo sport but matches are so much longer and there is far more opportunity for the better player to adapt. PLUS I guess if you have a bad start in tennis you’re not going to be ko’d or damaged and can still play your best later. I don’t know what this comment ads lol but statistics yay
In UFC fights I always think of it being 50/50 because fights in nature are unpredictable. Especially when you get into the top 10. It’s unpredictable. When it’s champ vs top 5 contender it’s so damn close.
Very interesting video, made me appreciate Quidditch even more, since when you talked about sports, in the real world, most do not have a closing the show shot.
6:43 I always said the philly shell can work I used it all the time in spring and some goofy ass bjj coach would tell me that shit don't work in boxing/Muay Thai. I tell them just cuz you suck at it don't mean I shouldn't use it stfu 😂😂
Lol. Yes they do. You do realize a betting line is based on supply and demand. If books were receiving lop sided bets on o Malley. The line would become narrower. Saying a billion dollar business doesn’t know what they’re doing because an outlier outcome happened is crazy 😂
MMA is the sport i have the most accurate predictions. Im shit at predicting basketball or football but when it comes to MMA i just get the feeling of who is going to win before the fight starts
I called dricus and sean winning and leon. Its because mma is so different from all other sports. If your down in basketball or football by 25 thats probably it. In mma you could do bad the whole fight and win in the last second
Statistically speaking, American football is the hardest sport to predict (underdogs win more than any other sport). However, MMA is #2 when it comes to underdogs winning.
I lost so many food bets (that way we both get somthing) cause of games so I can agree. Last year I was so salty cause kansas city beat two teams cause of penalties and Cincinnati refuses give joe burrows an offensive line that knows how to block.
Or the cupping marks lol as soon as I see a prelim level guy with those cupping marks on his back I usually throw $ on the other guy and so far (at least when I notice it in real time) it’s been spot on. No idea why though 😂
Im gonna be real, as someone who loses money betting on fights week after week, the nfl is way less predictable than mma. Sure main events are hard to predict nowadays but prelims are pretty easy. In the nfl literally fucking anything can happen
Hardest sport to predict ? Not really. The hardest sport that i know is Dota 2. The geeks (data scientist) actually calculate win probability for each match before a tournaments, and theres a team with below 0,5% to win and they actually won. It happens all the time in Dota 2.
MMA is more exciting and unpredictable to watch because anything can happen at any moment which can turn the tides. In boxing or other sports, it's very obvious who is gonna win as the skill gap is much larger from the top person/team and the rest of the league.
#1 in his division for years is somehow a gate keeper? That Robert Whittaker? Never heard anyone call him a gate keeper before, but alright… 😅. Guy doesn’t even know what a gate keeper is I guess and can we stop calling everyone who loses and has been in the top for a while “gate keepers” like wtf.
I don’t think the punchers chance thing works with submissions because you can accidentally knock someone out with a light tap on the chin but you can’t accidentally grip someone’s neck till they pass out accidentally
He isn't saying yoy can accidentally submit someone, he is saying that even if you were losing the fight you could still submit them and win the fight regardless of how badly you're losing
There's a big reason that doesn't get talked about as to why these fighters are pulling off upsets; THEY'RE YOUNGER. Both in terms of age and because they have less mileage on them, there's more room for them to grow and improve, they're the ones who've been studying tape more. Whereas the older fighters have much more mileage on them and are essentially finished products who aren't going to get better. For context, Strickland is younger than Izzy, Leon is younger than Kamaru, Dricus is younger than Rob and O'Malley is younger than Aljo. There are exceptions of course like Jones vs Gane and Volk vs Yair.
Love youe videos, i know your white background is basically your corporate identity at this point but would you mind changing that into black for us dark mode zombies? 🤣
Bets on mma are so risky lol even it’s close lines you literally just don’t know if you bet on fantasy points for mma too it is so much luck and trust cause all those stats won’t help
MMA is tough to predict because it resembles total war, in total war there is adaptability that exist in both sides of the conflict, each will attack each, each will counter each, and it goes on. What some more casual audiences think is that any hyped up fighter is somehow immune to damage just because their style looks "dominant". This is false, in war every opponent can counteract his opponent, every man is open to death, and every man is mortal. What matters most though is each mans largeness of heart, ones spirit matched agaisnt another, whoever has the largest is the true victor.
And because MMA fans have the attention span of a baby fish, next year they will act like some fighters cannot possibly win from another unless they bring a gun with them in the octagon. Completely forgetting that upsets happen all the time in this sport
Last three major UFC events, Ive predicted successfully 21/25 fights. Im doing alright. I mean, Im not betting or anything, but a mate of mine has made a couple hundred on my recommendations. Its fleeting, I know any second Ill lose the magic, but currently in my circle Im the MMA Shaman.
Punchers chance is not unique to mma... it's called any given Sunday in football. Why do you think all the big four play series? I just don't think fighters would be down for a 7 fight series 😂
It’s tough to predict but way easier if you don’t pay attention to the odds and just use your head, I’ve won moneyline on every fight from today going back to sterling vs cejudo, predicted all the underdogs and whatnot just do your research
This all well argued but unfortunately falls apart as soon as you actually look at the underlying stats and realise that MMA is easier to predict than most team sports
Reupload because I got a lot of UFC event numbers wrong. The CTE may be kicking in
Bro thinks he Tony💀💀
lol
Bro thinks he gaethje 💀💀
Bro you seriously said Francis beat Gane dominantly?
Water weed dune hair bapa, herded bowlth waze.
mma is the only sport that exactly resembles life. anything can happen at any moment. and no matter who you are, you're not the main character
Jon Jones the protagonist and his wife is the antagonist. Everyone else he fights is just to farm experience.
Cornball 😂😂😂
@@papafoundry5537he also farms pregnant women and robbers😂
Unless you’re jones
@@lemynash Nah, he lost to reyes
Ironically all the dudes in the thumbnail I rooted for in their fights
0:57 "ufc 292"😂
There are way too many factors in MMA. No prediction is ever 100% accurate.
Call bobby knuckles a gatekeeper one more time i dare u...
Yes but who calls Robert a gatekeeper for real...
And Ngannou an underdog against Gane
@@heroe1486 Ngannou was an underdog against Gane, according to the betting odds.
@@heroe1486More like Ngannou “dominating” that fight lol. Gane arguably won the fight lmao in no way was it domination it was very close to score.
Gaethje shouldn’t have been in the thumb nail. Anyone with 4 firing brain cells knew he was beating Porier
I actually predicted every single one f those fights
Bs
@@archieherrington9955 Okay "predicted" is a little generous but I bet on all the right fights. I bet on both Sean's, Gaethje, Pantoja, Pereira, Pedro, Derrick Lewis, and Dan Hooker. Those are just the underdogs as well. I've gotten Money on the past 6 cards I've bet on now including the Mexico Card just now
Only real ones watched the first upload
U goddamn right
Can’t believe he called Aljo the n word in it 😳
@@edmonddantes563 frfr crazy shit
Someone else made this video within the last couple days.
why did you re uplaod this?
Ain’t no way people bet on aljo instead of Sean cmon guys
2:48 I'm sorry TJ a whatters chance??
1:00 bro why the fuck is everyone using the photoshopped picture of Sean💀
Bro was smoking weed when he said francis dominantly beat Gane lol.
Ufc 293*
these upsets arent that crazy they make sense
These upsets are crazy, you’re a casual
MMA is hard to predict but so is Football . You would know if you follow football regularly. Iam talking about Football Football. Not American football.
@Lucas tracy
More moves = more variables. Literally, "a lot of moving parts".
More abilities to win = more varied outcomes
@@joys8634best sport because of it
Another reason that makes MMA so unpredictable is the length between fights. Assuming that most fighters compete 3-4 times a year, this provide roughly 3-4 months of training camp in between (neglecting injury, vacation, etc). Therefore, fighters are able to deeply work on weaknesses and refine their game, making their style and abilities very unpredictable come fight night. A good example is how everyone was expecting Volk to be rag dolled by Islam but he ended up holding his own, likely due to grappling work done behind the scenes for the months leading up to the fight.
Nobody expected Volk to be ragdoll. Pound for pound best player, come on.
Islam is still a better fighter, but not by a lot.
Cory is a better example IMO he lost to close decision by getting clinch on the cage and he want and wrestle is next 3 fight
The only people who kept saying Islam was going to submit Volk by round 3 were Islam fanboys (which there are many).
@@phillustratorwdym nobody expected, literally 80% said Volk would get submitted because Ortega got him deep and hes got taken down by Mendez. The narrative always change when the dagestani didnt ragdoll lmfao
@@GrubKiller436 not true. oddsmakers had him at like -400 favorite
I said it once and I’ll say it again - betting on mma fights is like playing with loaded dice 😂
except that you don't know which side is loaded lol
@@SmithGarridoLe96 lmaoooooo MY EXACT NEXT WORDS AFTER I SAID THAT STATEMENT 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Baseball and basketball is way harder to bet on than mma. The favorite in mma wins 80% of the time
It's not that hard to predict, just see what lucas pick and pick the opposite
Truth. The curse is real
not a coincidence that drake always bets on the same fighter Lucas tracy picks
Lmfao he pick Sergei spivak to beat Gane but then get backfired quickly
In muay thai and kickboxing, there is a surge of new fighters who come from a boxing background who are currently dominating because of their pressure and ability to nullify kicks by keeping their opponent on the backfoot. now, i never thought Sean Strickland would be the guy to demonstrate this in the UFC, but we are seeing a new meta in striking and it blew my mind when i saw this happen
Boxing is just best striking art add some kicks defence and it's over for Thai or KB guys
@@BearJ7cbut then that ain’t boxing anymore.
You can say boxing is best base, but you can’t say boxing is the best art.
Cos if you put a pure boxer, who knows nothing about legkicks vs a Muay thai guy, who has poor boxing. The Muaythai still wins 9/10 times.
So pure muaythai is still better than pure boxing. But a hybrid fighter is better than both.
And I know this cos I train in both.
I mess up Muay Mat (the heavy handed boxer type guys your describing) by using footwork, and clinchwork from Muaythai.
And mess up Muaythai kickers and taekwondo guys by using forward pressure, and boxing combos.
OP fighter.
@@BearJ7c boxing needing to check kicks already means it's not as good lmao, not to mention the fact it has literally zero clinch is hilarious. Keep being delusional buddy,
if this is true then explain superbon, superlek, and tawanchai. Where's the so called boxing dominance? Your prime example I bet Khalilov was shutdown like the russian rat he is.
FUCK YEAH BOXING NUMBER ONE
It's the hardest sport to predict from a purely technical analysis perspective, but it's by far the easiest sport to beat the bookies in and turn a consistent profit.
Fax, in team sport you have to rely, well, on the whole team usually. In this sport you give your trust to individuals aka much less risk.
Teach me your ways
How you do it then?
Best sport to gamble on is tennis btw, predictable af followed by formula 1.
You somehow contradict yourself in two sentences
another one: random fight ending Injuries, such as broken bones, torn ACL, disqualifications, excessive eye bleeding, etc.
someone who's built up alot of scar tissue over many fights can get cut open more easily like Nate Diaz for example.
I didnt see Strickland beating adesaynya either btw. I dont think anyone say that coming
Technically baseball has the highest underdog win % by some margin. In general there’s an extremely high correlation between number of points (I.e. chances to score) and the better team winning. It makes sense as the better plays have more opportunity to show they are better. Baseball 42% underdog wins, NBA only 25%, tennis 25%, MMA 35%
Tennis is an interesting one also being (primarily) a solo sport but matches are so much longer and there is far more opportunity for the better player to adapt. PLUS I guess if you have a bad start in tennis you’re not going to be ko’d or damaged and can still play your best later.
I don’t know what this comment ads lol but statistics yay
Baseball is so boring to watch. I cant take it anyomre
im not an american but id love to watch an MLB game live for sure. Just to taste some hotdogs. @@justso-gr3jj
Let's be honest. Everyone who followed lightweight division knew gaethje would beat Dustin
If Dustin won, you'd have said the same for him
In UFC fights I always think of it being 50/50 because fights in nature are unpredictable. Especially when you get into the top 10. It’s unpredictable. When it’s champ vs top 5 contender it’s so damn close.
Very interesting video, made me appreciate Quidditch even more, since when you talked about sports, in the real world, most do not have a closing the show shot.
JK Rowling is a genius. Love her
6:43 I always said the philly shell can work I used it all the time in spring and some goofy ass bjj coach would tell me that shit don't work in boxing/Muay Thai. I tell them just cuz you suck at it don't mean I shouldn't use it stfu 😂😂
MMA odds makers don’t know the sport well enough to set the lines. O’Malley at +215 was crazy
Lol. Yes they do. You do realize a betting line is based on supply and demand. If books were receiving lop sided bets on o Malley. The line would become narrower. Saying a billion dollar business doesn’t know what they’re doing because an outlier outcome happened is crazy 😂
Cain Velasquez ain’t do nun wrong
Connor shoulder checking cowboy definitely turn into a meta clinch move
MMA is the sport i have the most accurate predictions. Im shit at predicting basketball or football but when it comes to MMA i just get the feeling of who is going to win before the fight starts
I called dricus and sean winning and leon. Its because mma is so different from all other sports. If your down in basketball or football by 25 thats probably it. In mma you could do bad the whole fight and win in the last second
O malley right? No sane person picked Strickland
@@doshvo926a lot of people picked Strickland and won alot of money from that smart pick😂
@@doshvo926Strickland isn't gonna be beat by someone who beats off to cartoons bro
Statistically speaking, American football is the hardest sport to predict (underdogs win more than any other sport). However, MMA is #2 when it comes to underdogs winning.
What kind of waffling is this, contradicting man.
That’s also cuz footballs been around for ages 😂
@@mugiwara9507 Explain. How did I contradict myself?
I lost so many food bets (that way we both get somthing) cause of games so I can agree. Last year I was so salty cause kansas city beat two teams cause of penalties and Cincinnati refuses give joe burrows an offensive line that knows how to block.
#1 reason is because fixed fights
WHITEBOYSUMMER, come back when stipe beats jones
Don't forget there are external forces like whatever voodoo curse is following people like Chael Sonnen and Drake
Or the cupping marks lol as soon as I see a prelim level guy with those cupping marks on his back I usually throw $ on the other guy and so far (at least when I notice it in real time) it’s been spot on. No idea why though 😂
Im gonna be real, as someone who loses money betting on fights week after week, the nfl is way less predictable than mma. Sure main events are hard to predict nowadays but prelims are pretty easy. In the nfl literally fucking anything can happen
Hardest sport to predict ? Not really.
The hardest sport that i know is Dota 2. The geeks (data scientist) actually calculate win probability for each match before a tournaments, and theres a team with below 0,5% to win and they actually won. It happens all the time in Dota 2.
Its because everyone is average at everything, so everyone has alot of weaknesses in different areas
I just had a dream where stipe goes backwards then plants and lands a hook over jones jab. Drops him then finishes him. Hopefully I’m right
MMA is more exciting and unpredictable to watch because anything can happen at any moment which can turn the tides. In boxing or other sports, it's very obvious who is gonna win as the skill gap is much larger from the top person/team and the rest of the league.
#1 in his division for years is somehow a gate keeper? That Robert Whittaker? Never heard anyone call him a gate keeper before, but alright… 😅. Guy doesn’t even know what a gate keeper is I guess and can we stop calling everyone who loses and has been in the top for a while “gate keepers” like wtf.
mma is just a high variance sport like hockey, soccer and basket ball have lower variance its really simple
Either that or match fixing... I mean the athletes are underpaid in general so they would be incentivised to find some other ways to make money
I don’t think the punchers chance thing works with submissions because you can accidentally knock someone out with a light tap on the chin but you can’t accidentally grip someone’s neck till they pass out accidentally
He isn't saying yoy can accidentally submit someone, he is saying that even if you were losing the fight you could still submit them and win the fight regardless of how badly you're losing
Not accidentally but it can goes against the flow of the fight, basically like Silva vs Chael Sonen
@@supfool.-9584 Its called a submitters chance, it should be called that more often.
Dude u just have to watch Paul Craig's whole career and u will know puncher's chance in submissions lol
I am guessing Colby will pull an upset against Leon.
There's a big reason that doesn't get talked about as to why these fighters are pulling off upsets; THEY'RE YOUNGER. Both in terms of age and because they have less mileage on them, there's more room for them to grow and improve, they're the ones who've been studying tape more. Whereas the older fighters have much more mileage on them and are essentially finished products who aren't going to get better.
For context, Strickland is younger than Izzy, Leon is younger than Kamaru, Dricus is younger than Rob and O'Malley is younger than Aljo. There are exceptions of course like Jones vs Gane and Volk vs Yair.
Grasso , should have been in the thumbnail more than gaethje bro .. she was like +400-500 something ..
And that is why Combat sports are so highly corrupted and will never be otherwise.
Love youe videos, i know your white background is basically your corporate identity at this point but would you mind changing that into black for us dark mode zombies? 🤣
You keep using that word "meta changes", I don't think it means what you think it means
Bets on mma are so risky lol even it’s close lines you literally just don’t know if you bet on fantasy points for mma too it is so much luck and trust cause all those stats won’t help
Dude just said Robert is a gatekeeper lmao
MMA is tough to predict because it resembles total war, in total war there is adaptability that exist in both sides of the conflict, each will attack each, each will counter each, and it goes on.
What some more casual audiences think is that any hyped up fighter is somehow immune to damage just because their style looks "dominant". This is false, in war every opponent can counteract his opponent, every man is open to death, and every man is mortal.
What matters most though is each mans largeness of heart, ones spirit matched agaisnt another, whoever has the largest is the true victor.
Just hope underdogs winning follows and do Bronx reclaims the belt, respect to both Islam and Charles but I got all love for Charles
It's like street fighting. You can never be sure if you'll win. You never know what your enemy is going to do
Breathing heavy on top of someone isnt winning dominantly when ure loosing on the feet
It's hard to predict because we dont now how fighter actually feels after weight cut.
But there is also weight cuts in boxing
Ask Jon Jones whether the UFC is hard to predict?
I hate how mma always needs to try to be boxing
You know your channel is the truth when I watch every video you make of a sport(mma) i don’t even watch lol. Amazing.
gaethje wasnt that big of an underdog, a lot of people predicted him to win
incorrect. John jones always wins. the GOAT
A knee’ers chance cutting it a little too close papa
Baseball and basketball is harder to bet on than mma
And because MMA fans have the attention span of a baby fish, next year they will act like some fighters cannot possibly win from another unless they bring a gun with them in the octagon. Completely forgetting that upsets happen all the time in this sport
Mma is like a sandwich. It needs mayo.
I love watching your videos while eating lol
You see a fighter for like half an hour max before they go back to what's basically an offseason lab to cook up new strats for months.
Hear me out... figure skating
Well it's hard because its new fans mostly with only a few years in ufc viewing experience. Plus people bet on their favorite fighter not on skills.
Mma hasn’t been real lately
Called the 3 winner of 4. Only Upset for was the Sterling Fight. I thought O'Malley had no chance but I was proven wrong hahaha
The inconsistencies are what make this sport beautiful. After all they’re called Martial Arts, not Martial Sciences
Last three major UFC events, Ive predicted successfully 21/25 fights. Im doing alright. I mean, Im not betting or anything, but a mate of mine has made a couple hundred on my recommendations.
Its fleeting, I know any second Ill lose the magic, but currently in my circle Im the MMA Shaman.
Punchers chance is not unique to mma... it's called any given Sunday in football.
Why do you think all the big four play series? I just don't think fighters would be down for a 7 fight series 😂
I literally called every one of those.
Betting Odds are usually a popularity contests and should not be considered. Most hardcore fans have a fair idea how things usually play out.
Yes. The betting market, which is the most accurate representation of how a fight will go (in the long run) should not be considered 😂
Fans believed the hype and were shocked when Sean won. 😂.
It’s tough to predict but way easier if you don’t pay attention to the odds and just use your head, I’ve won moneyline on every fight from today going back to sterling vs cejudo, predicted all the underdogs and whatnot just do your research
I feel what he’s saying but also #4 Michigan St just lost its home opener to James Madison every sport has crazy outcomes
Shevchenko v Grasso 1 was a big one. Val was winning the fight until she tried that back kick and Grasso jumped on her back ending it
Anything can happen in a fight. That's what people keep forgetting.
Tbf Sean Strickland walks with a Philly she’ll and blocks with a long guard he never really effectively blocks with the shell
MMA IS THE BEST!!!
Sean has 20 fights and is now in the pound for pound rankings
This all well argued but unfortunately falls apart as soon as you actually look at the underlying stats and realise that MMA is easier to predict than most team sports
Explain
Identifying strengths and weaknesses is easier. Lot lesser variables. Predicting team sports lead to more players but you get more spots to bet too.
I’d say only the NFL playoffs is just as tough, the sudden death scenario does make for a ton of upsets every season.
Women's beach volleyball it tough for me to predict... Not sure why.
Next videos: top 10 mma goats or Costa vs Chimaev prediction. Mark my words.
Ufc has been quite unpredictable lately
Tj is like the Jimmyhighroller of the MMA community. Great Video.
Because fans have no real competition experience
The Gaethje fight was an easy one to predict to be fair
Exactly 😂 all these bots picking Dustin
@@bigruckus8664just like all the bots betting the house on izzy because it was a guaranteed win?
Is this a troll comment or are you being genuinely serious?
Alright Nostradamus 😂
Nobody was counting gaethje out by any means, but the general consensus was clear that Dustin was more likely to win
I knew the 2 Seans would win and gaethje so🤷♂️🤷♂️
Idk I predicted gaethje Sean and Strickland to win🤷♂️
"Ista fight. Whateva happens happens."
- Mike Tyson