A lot of poker players need to learn how to add hands like 99, TT, JJ into raising ranges on low paired flops like this - when facing small bets. They need protection. And you match them with bluffing hands.
Villain is a 3to1 dog on the flop with overs. If villain has a hand like A5s with one over, he is a 6to1 dog on the flop. On turn villain becomes a 6to1 dog with his overs. This type of player may be one of the few that doesn't underbluff river. Let him bluff. Against players that give up by river, sure raise the flop. Hero played it well. Villain lost value by not goin allin on the river. Alternatively hero could 4bet preflop.
@@pot_kivach160 when you know the dark you're walking through is often safe and if you turn the lights on the money that you were walking towards instantly disappears.
I am jamming that turn every time in this situation if I'm at least calling the turn. He just doesn't have enough behind, and if you feel he has any AK AQ AJ might as well not give him the opportunity to get lucky. The way he sized the flop looked like he was blocker betting you and the turn was because he figured out your holdings.
@pot_kivach160 because if you understand what he's thinking you have, it makes sense to just shove the turn. You need protection, especially on a board with no overs. Why just call the turn with not even a pot-sized bet behind?
He structured cbet sizing correctly imo. The reason why you big bet/check in this spot especially if you a 3-betting polar is because of your overpair advantage and you almost never interact with this board. Basically, Aces are the immortal nuts here. From small blind its a pure linear range, especially over two callers unless he thinks he can turn hands like Q8s into profitable plays. The second reason and more important reason is the SPR because of the bloated size of the pot due to the callers and bigger than normal 3-bet sizing the spr is lot smaller. The SPR is ~2 on the turn which means he can can size it perfectly geomentrically. 66% on the tirn and river. The third reason why is because you have to call extremely wide against a 1/4 bet size like hands like 87 with a backdoor and population overfolds against this sizing.
That flop bet is not weak. Good regs will bet range for 1/4 pot in a fourbet pot oop , and this is in line with that. I expected another 1/4 psb on turn, and when it didn’t come I think we’re good here often enough. Now turn shove vs river calldown, I’d probably deviate and shove turn once villain sizes up because that really puts his UI overs in a rough spot, but as played there’s no other line than call river.
Speaking your bet size generally is considered a strong tell making sure the dealer gets it right. Which is different than yell out "all in". The river looks like a value bet. But.... if your 3 better has some bluffs folding 99 preflop is the better play. Because either he will move you off the best hand or not pay the set. Even if you can get paid on a set all the times you fold to a bluff is -EV from my calculations. The villain reasoning is totally sound.
The part i did have right that was that villain was targeting 88, 99 and TT for value. But i didn't put him on any holding with a J in it, except for maybe JJ. Thought he had an overpair with probably a club in it. The river looks so value heavy that i would have folded.
It would make the hand easier to play. With 2 flushdraws out there, it has some benefit, since you might get calls from worse hands or at least protect your equity. However, villain still has all JJ-AA, maybe even 2 combos of A2suited. Thats a lot of combos, which all call our shove, and we are 5% against all these hands, which really kills our equity. Against a range of JJ, QQ, Kk, AA, A2dd, A2hh, AT-AKcc, AT-AKss, KQ/QJ/JT suited, some A3-A5 suited, we have imo close the odds to call, but not to shove since he can play perfectly against us which a guy like him wants. I think, the caller played it fine, but tbh I would not mind folding pre either.
Because we only get called by hands that beat us. We are effectively turning our hand in to a bluff to shove turn, remember villain went 2/3 pot on turn, not a small bet and with villain being uncapped we could end up in a world of pain.
His moves are quick because he's bluffing. He saw a double flush bluff board and committed. When someone switches from silent to a verbal bet, it's often a tell they are bluffing. Jam on the switch to verbal.
I was thinking all along that I would shove on the turn because if I plan to call off most bets on the river I might as well get some fold Equity right now...
Given the background, this is a hand where hero should be doing a fair amount of 4-betting preflop. You've got the equity to call a shove, and you're going to make a profit from times when everybody folds.
Everybody saying hero should have shoved turn. I disagree. The only thing you can get value from is flush draws. But if you just call and villain misses his draw, he's gonna bluff away his whole stack on the river.
SPR makes me want to fold river, pot odds make me want to call. Hard to find bluffs on this river, and Villain, if 3-betting appropriately polarized, has the overlooked 54s, which tips this further out of favor. Against any reg I'd sigh call, but this was luck on Villain's part and he made the best of it. Good hand.
If you're planning to call down on turn and river on good cards..doesnt that mean it makes more sense to just raise the flop. I feel like you'd get way more info raising flop and villain would start checking more often on turns and rivers..
@atfti I didn't even see the river yet when I wrote this..and even on a bad river he paid it off. If you're never folding..I just don't get why to play so passive
@barryjb just feels like there are very few good rivers for hero..and so many bad rivers. If he had a hand like queens..then sure just play passive. But a hand like 9s feels so vulnerable. If you're planning to call shoves on J-Q-K or A rivers and even club on the river..why wait for the bad river to pile in the money..
@DavidKrakt just because your hand feels vulnerable doesn't mean you're not way ahead of his range. On top of that, raising just causes him to fold the hands you beat and continue with the hands you lose to.
Turn shove makes sense to me but that aside, the river bet screams milking thin-ish value to me. If the villain was bluffing with, let's say, the ace of clubs blocker, I would expect him to shove close to if not always. This is a villain who's not afraid of the stakes, he's not going to be worried about saving a little bit in a situation like this. Only reason why he wouldn't bet all in as a bluff is if he though that a smaller bet would actually get more folds than an all-in and I find that unlikely. Villain read the hero perfectly which also points to raise on the flop or shove on the turn being better against a good villain. Preflop? Calling is reasonable given seeing the players behind you ready to fold but the calling range is just so narrow in this setup that I might err towards 4bet or fold.
I just played the biggest pot of my life yesterday with pocket 99s in a very similar spot as this, Bart your upload timing is spooky accurate for what I needed today lol. I think I may submit mine for the call in show as well, only thing is all the action was concluded on the flop, do you typically consider those for review?
@mikey22355 Oh yeah it was epic. Honestly a really interesting and fun situation and I'd imagine 99% of people would not guess what Villain showed up with.
I'd raise flop ($250). . Calling turn OOP is walking blindfolded through the dark! . River is a fold. Stop and remove eyes folder. Before you run into a tree trunk, or rock bluff, or go over the cliff. _(did not see hand reveal yet)_
Even before finishing, it seemed pretty obvious that he was going for thin value with a jack (or even tens) and is trying to decide if it's worth betting again when front door clubs come in. Pretty awful airball bluff on the turn from villain, though. Hero has so many 88-JJ hands that aren't folding and a bunch of his worse hands are drawing close to dead against AJ. He's literally folding out basically exactly AQ with no flush draw?
I would have raised to 325 otf repping overpairs and fds thinking his action after that will tell me a lot about his holding. At this point, I'm hoping for a fold. If he calls, ott I'm probably folding to a donk or checking behind. But now I think bet / folding is better - but it's getting scary because it's too much $$. And the turn bet is likely ai because I think I've got about 1 psb at that point. So, he's either got one of the 30 hands (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT) that beats me or one of the 72 hand s (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJs, JTs) that don't.
Huh? Raise the turn why? You get called only if you're beat. If you think he'll bluff a high card like A or K than just call turn and bluff catch the river. It makes no sense to protect against 6 outs right? What am I missing here? That last statement made no sense to me.
Before reveal, im shoving turn. Given his description of villain he has the best hand on the turn. If you think his range for four bet is AA-QQ, AK you are folding pre, if not you are good on turn. Post reveal...zero chance he is folding to shove...the turn shove puts max pressure on him
I don't know what you mean "his range for 4! is AA-QQ". The villain 3! pre. I think villain could have an over pair on the turn. I don't discount those hands because of the cbet sizing. With the stack sizes it set up perfectly for an all in on the river, and the smaller flop bet would get more calls. It seems like a reasonable way to play AA.
If you know he's a professional, you HAVE to shove that turn. He already showed weakness on the flop with the $100 bet. Your hand isnt gonna get any better and you're lucky a broadway card didnt come out but the 3 of clubs
Why shove? This is a classic way ahead/way behind situation and they are exactly when NOT to just rip it in. You call, keep him wide and win the vast majority of the time when you're ahead anyway.
In what way did the small bet on the flop show weakness? If he’s a pro he probably uses that sizing with his entire range. He left himself with an easy shove on the river so there’d be no need to go larger with AA/KK on the flop and risk hero folding his 88 or KQs.
@JohnSmith-nx7zj Mark Goon, hungry horse poker, advocates for the range c-bet exploit BECAUSE it makes Villains fold huge chunks of their range. Range 3-betting is NOT GTO. A raise on flop against this strategy makes this Villain bleed like crazy.
The caller doesn't seem to understand MDF. His thinking process around when to call-bluff is completely exploitable, almost completely opposite of GTO.
A lot of poker players need to learn how to add hands like 99, TT, JJ into raising ranges on low paired flops like this - when facing small bets. They need protection. And you match them with bluffing hands.
Villain is a 3to1 dog on the flop with overs. If villain has a hand like A5s with one over, he is a 6to1 dog on the flop. On turn villain becomes a 6to1 dog with his overs. This type of player may be one of the few that doesn't underbluff river. Let him bluff. Against players that give up by river, sure raise the flop. Hero played it well. Villain lost value by not goin allin on the river. Alternatively hero could 4bet preflop.
@@AT-bw4cm since when walking blindfolded through the dark is a well play?
@@pot_kivach160 when you know the dark you're walking through is often safe and if you turn the lights on the money that you were walking towards instantly disappears.
I am jamming that turn every time in this situation if I'm at least calling the turn. He just doesn't have enough behind, and if you feel he has any AK AQ AJ might as well not give him the opportunity to get lucky. The way he sized the flop looked like he was blocker betting you and the turn was because he figured out your holdings.
Why shoving turn? Would not (V) high pair (AA/KK/QQ) play the same way?
@pot_kivach160 because if you understand what he's thinking you have, it makes sense to just shove the turn. You need protection, especially on a board with no overs. Why just call the turn with not even a pot-sized bet behind?
He structured cbet sizing correctly imo. The reason why you big bet/check in this spot especially if you a 3-betting polar is because of your overpair advantage and you almost never interact with this board. Basically, Aces are the immortal nuts here.
From small blind its a pure linear range, especially over two callers unless he thinks he can turn hands like Q8s into profitable plays.
The second reason and more important reason is the SPR because of the bloated size of the pot due to the callers and bigger than normal 3-bet sizing the spr is lot smaller. The SPR is ~2 on the turn which means he can can size it perfectly geomentrically. 66% on the tirn and river.
The third reason why is because you have to call extremely wide against a 1/4 bet size like hands like 87 with a backdoor and population overfolds against this sizing.
How can betting AJd 100 into 500 on that flop with low spr ever be "structuring correctly"?
I have this HH written down in my group chat. We were actually around 2K eff, river SPR was 1
Hey David,
I had $1550 to start the hand and you covered. I rebought for $650 after the hand to get back to $1k.
Also if we had $1350-1400 behind I might have ripped it as a bluff, I contemplated it till I worked out I only had $850 when you bet $500.
@ must be my mistake then, likely thought I was covered hence river sizing.
I think check raising on the flop here is the play, setting up for a less than one SPR on the turn to jam all in
That flop bet is not weak. Good regs will bet range for 1/4 pot in a fourbet pot oop , and this is in line with that.
I expected another 1/4 psb on turn, and when it didn’t come I think we’re good here often enough.
Now turn shove vs river calldown, I’d probably deviate and shove turn once villain sizes up because that really puts his UI overs in a rough spot, but as played there’s no other line than call river.
Speaking your bet size generally is considered a strong tell making sure the dealer gets it right. Which is different than yell out "all in". The river looks like a value bet.
But.... if your 3 better has some bluffs folding 99 preflop is the better play. Because either he will move you off the best hand or not pay the set. Even if you can get paid on a set all the times you fold to a bluff is -EV from my calculations.
The villain reasoning is totally sound.
The part i did have right that was that villain was targeting 88, 99 and TT for value.
But i didn't put him on any holding with a J in it, except for maybe JJ.
Thought he had an overpair with probably a club in it.
The river looks so value heavy that i would have folded.
I’m a pure rec, but I would have shoved turn against this type of villain. Why let him make the decision on the river. Make it now for him.
It would make the hand easier to play. With 2 flushdraws out there, it has some benefit, since you might get calls from worse hands or at least protect your equity.
However, villain still has all JJ-AA, maybe even 2 combos of A2suited. Thats a lot of combos, which all call our shove, and we are 5% against all these hands, which really kills our equity.
Against a range of JJ, QQ, Kk, AA, A2dd, A2hh, AT-AKcc, AT-AKss, KQ/QJ/JT suited, some A3-A5 suited, we have imo close the odds to call, but not to shove since he can play perfectly against us which a guy like him wants.
I think, the caller played it fine, but tbh I would not mind folding pre either.
Because we only get called by hands that beat us. We are effectively turning our hand in to a bluff to shove turn, remember villain went 2/3 pot on turn, not a small bet and with villain being uncapped we could end up in a world of pain.
Some bluffs that will fire at the end wont call your raise though, which could lose you some value
That’s exactly what I was thinking.
All the people co-signing in this proves poker is alive
His moves are quick because he's bluffing. He saw a double flush bluff board and committed. When someone switches from silent to a verbal bet, it's often a tell they are bluffing. Jam on the switch to verbal.
I was thinking all along that I would shove on the turn because if I plan to call off most bets on the river I might as well get some fold Equity right now...
Same
Given the background, this is a hand where hero should be doing a fair amount of 4-betting preflop. You've got the equity to call a shove, and you're going to make a profit from times when everybody folds.
Thats a 310bb pre allin with 99. Thats way too lose imo
Its closer between call and fold.
How can you call an all in for 1500$ in a 2/5 game with 99 sir? That’s 300bb sir
I'd want to be a bit deeper if I'm going to call pre
Everybody saying hero should have shoved turn. I disagree. The only thing you can get value from is flush draws. But if you just call and villain misses his draw, he's gonna bluff away his whole stack on the river.
Exactly, I was very confused when I saw people say that. What worse made hand do they think Villain will call with that 3bet pre OOP?
SPR makes me want to fold river, pot odds make me want to call. Hard to find bluffs on this river, and Villain, if 3-betting appropriately polarized, has the overlooked 54s, which tips this further out of favor. Against any reg I'd sigh call, but this was luck on Villain's part and he made the best of it. Good hand.
Should note that the rake is $25 cap
I play same. Against this player type calling 3. Bad luck. Take note of bet sizing exploit on river
If you're planning to call down on turn and river on good cards..doesnt that mean it makes more sense to just raise the flop. I feel like you'd get way more info raising flop and villain would start checking more often on turns and rivers..
Missing flop raise was crucial to the blunder
@atfti I didn't even see the river yet when I wrote this..and even on a bad river he paid it off. If you're never folding..I just don't get why to play so passive
When the villain's range has so many bluffs playing passively is +ev.
@barryjb just feels like there are very few good rivers for hero..and so many bad rivers. If he had a hand like queens..then sure just play passive. But a hand like 9s feels so vulnerable. If you're planning to call shoves on J-Q-K or A rivers and even club on the river..why wait for the bad river to pile in the money..
@DavidKrakt just because your hand feels vulnerable doesn't mean you're not way ahead of his range. On top of that, raising just causes him to fold the hands you beat and continue with the hands you lose to.
Turn shove makes sense to me but that aside, the river bet screams milking thin-ish value to me. If the villain was bluffing with, let's say, the ace of clubs blocker, I would expect him to shove close to if not always. This is a villain who's not afraid of the stakes, he's not going to be worried about saving a little bit in a situation like this. Only reason why he wouldn't bet all in as a bluff is if he though that a smaller bet would actually get more folds than an all-in and I find that unlikely.
Villain read the hero perfectly which also points to raise on the flop or shove on the turn being better against a good villain. Preflop? Calling is reasonable given seeing the players behind you ready to fold but the calling range is just so narrow in this setup that I might err towards 4bet or fold.
This guy is 100% from nz.
Just to put the accent in context.
Took him speaking about 3 words to identify that.
(Aussie here).
I am - my screen name even has a NZ in it :)
I just played the biggest pot of my life yesterday with pocket 99s in a very similar spot as this, Bart your upload timing is spooky accurate for what I needed today lol. I think I may submit mine for the call in show as well, only thing is all the action was concluded on the flop, do you typically consider those for review?
@@foxpaintball6831 submit it and find out!
@@foxpaintball6831 did you get a reveal?
@mikey22355 Oh yeah it was epic. Honestly a really interesting and fun situation and I'd imagine 99% of people would not guess what Villain showed up with.
I'd raise flop ($250).
.
Calling turn OOP is walking blindfolded through the dark!
.
River is a fold. Stop and remove eyes folder. Before you run into a tree trunk, or rock bluff, or go over the cliff. _(did not see hand reveal yet)_
not need a comment.
V played his hand perfectly. And got rewarded.
He’s in position
99 is a tough hand to play when you are afraid of the villain, which it seems the caller is. This hand is a turn jam 100.
Even before finishing, it seemed pretty obvious that he was going for thin value with a jack (or even tens) and is trying to decide if it's worth betting again when front door clubs come in. Pretty awful airball bluff on the turn from villain, though. Hero has so many 88-JJ hands that aren't folding and a bunch of his worse hands are drawing close to dead against AJ. He's literally folding out basically exactly AQ with no flush draw?
Indeed, the Turn bluff by Villain, with his hand type, is beyond terrible. 😛
What does he mean at 17:29 when he says "cuspy" pre?
It means it’s right on the cusp between folding and calling.
Still think a good call at the end given the pot odds
I would have raised to 325 otf repping overpairs and fds thinking his action after that will tell me a lot about his holding. At this point, I'm hoping for a fold. If he calls, ott I'm probably folding to a donk or checking behind. But now I think bet / folding is better - but it's getting scary because it's too much $$. And the turn bet is likely ai because I think I've got about 1 psb at that point. So, he's either got one of the 30 hands (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT) that beats me or one of the 72 hand s (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, QJs, JTs) that don't.
As played, I think I would shove or fold on the Turn, leaning towards shove. There is almost no value in continuing to river with just a call.
How about the value of keeping all of his bluffs in?
It's a bit of an obscure or ambiguous use of the word effective, so it is no wonder people are confused about its meaning in poker.
Huh? Raise the turn why? You get called only if you're beat. If you think he'll bluff a high card like A or K than just call turn and bluff catch the river. It makes no sense to protect against 6 outs right? What am I missing here? That last statement made no sense to me.
Before reveal, im shoving turn. Given his description of villain he has the best hand on the turn. If you think his range for four bet is AA-QQ, AK you are folding pre, if not you are good on turn.
Post reveal...zero chance he is folding to shove...the turn shove puts max pressure on him
I don't know what you mean "his range for 4! is AA-QQ". The villain 3! pre. I think villain could have an over pair on the turn. I don't discount those hands because of the cbet sizing. With the stack sizes it set up perfectly for an all in on the river, and the smaller flop bet would get more calls. It seems like a reasonable way to play AA.
What 4-bet?
His range getting to the turn isn’t just AA-QQ. But if he folds all his AQ/AJ to a shove then shoving is bad right?
not rly sure why he didn't shove the turn, seems like it was Ax and the turn is a great card to shove and deny.
We deny the 12% equity from over cards on the turn and value own ourselves into every over pair. That's a bad deal.
@@TheGuyCalledX villain could be barrelling front or back door flush draw tho so he'd probably call all in Ax
shoving turn against what hand? It's easy to say now after hand reveal.
@@pot_kivach160 villain could be barrelling front or back door nut flush draw so he'd probably call all in but lose to over pair
If you know he's a professional, you HAVE to shove that turn. He already showed weakness on the flop with the $100 bet. Your hand isnt gonna get any better and you're lucky a broadway card didnt come out but the 3 of clubs
Why shove? This is a classic way ahead/way behind situation and they are exactly when NOT to just rip it in. You call, keep him wide and win the vast majority of the time when you're ahead anyway.
What worse hands do you get called by? Which better hands are folding?
Classic panic shove turn because you don’t want to deal with the decision on the river.
In what way did the small bet on the flop show weakness? If he’s a pro he probably uses that sizing with his entire range.
He left himself with an easy shove on the river so there’d be no need to go larger with AA/KK on the flop and risk hero folding his 88 or KQs.
@JohnSmith-nx7zj Mark Goon, hungry horse poker, advocates for the range c-bet exploit BECAUSE it makes Villains fold huge chunks of their range. Range 3-betting is NOT GTO. A raise on flop against this strategy makes this Villain bleed like crazy.
He sounds New Zealandish to me.
Villain knew hero had an over pair, so why did he bet the turn?
The caller doesn't seem to understand MDF. His thinking process around when to call-bluff is completely exploitable, almost completely opposite of GTO.
Spoiler blocker
Before knowing what happened I thought the best play was shoving the turn over his $400 bet. I think he would have folded.
Sure, once you know his holding! lol
Fold pre
Lame lol
Folding to every 3 bet from a LAG, eh?
I don't like the Australian accent.
As an Aussie I can tell you confidently that this guy is a New Zealander. The ‘yius’ is a giveaway
@@ViolentKittenHD”siven am” and “fufteen fufty effective stack” made me think it was a kiwi.
Change it then.
@@ViolentKittenHD I am both actually, grew up in NZ and have since moved here to steal your woman and jobs (Married an Aussie)