This Is Tesla's Robotaxi Strategy.
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- Опубліковано 9 кві 2024
- The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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I think you are thinking to small, the robotaxi isn’t just a taxi it’s going to be everything.. think door dash, laundry service, last mile delivery, tours, mobile hotels, moving trucks, it’s going to change the world as we know it. It’s like the new internet, but instead of moving information it moves physical things.
The problem most of us have with new tech is if it is too revolutionary we nix it as being too revolutionary whereas the process isn't a switch flick. That will be how it starts, but it will take years for it to filter into our lives with all of its golden promises and potential problems. Getting rid of the grid lock we take for granted, the parking lots and spaces that could be used for humans instead of cars, the myriad of other things this will bring to improve our lives is just beyond most of our abilities to understand so we (some of us) try to dismiss it. I'm only going to be around long enough to see the beginnings of this massive evolution but even this is enough to blow the top of my mind off.
Correct. Shipping and receiving when combined with semi. Done.
That is precisely why 2 is not approprioate to the task of a taxi, Robo or otherwise, and Canoo very definately is. A very low cost, peoples' car is not at all, not in any way, the same vehicle as a functional taxi.
@@ronalddouglas7834 well I think the two seater will be good enough for most rides, after the concept is proven the could easily fast track various other vehicles.
Any form/function for movement at all, really. Drones, ships, robots. The mailman.
re: Your Comment at the end of this video ~
... imagine Optimus with Robotaxi as a combo unit ... Optimus handles the luggage, groceries, opens the car door for you ... your personal chauffeur for the drive ... and between rides Optimus can clean and prepare the vehicle for the next ride ... a dynamic duo ... as it were ...
Will this be done as an option for high-end price rides? Sure, eventually. Will it be a factor in the rapid growth of Robotaxi in the first decade? It's highly unlikely. Tesla is looking to make the Robotaxi per mile cost as low as humanly (I mean robotically) possible.
So why would they sell car at 25k when they can just send it to SF or anywhere that runs robotaxi, for 50k profit a year?
de-risking by off loading some of the cost to the consumer I'm guessing
Because you will then need to add on FSD to the base cost, and then if running as a Robotaxi there may be a licence fee to the owner and Tesla are likely to take a cut of what you charge to use it as a RT. Owners could still make a small fortune this way, but Tesla will also win out. And the $25k car will bring EV’s to the masses which is a major part of Tesla’s Master Plan.
Because they are making this up. Tesla insurance is ridiculously expensive for a normal car, just imagine how much it would be to pick up unsupervised passengers any of which could trash it at any moment with no one to stop them.. also if everyone has a robotaxi, you would flood the market for taxi rides, you just have to drop your prices massively to get customers and after that + insurance it would not be worth the hassle. Just watch the videos on Turo where you rent out your car, everyone who tried it lost money in the end
@@992GTS-DC It is only going to get worse and more expensive
Because of something called cash flow, look into it.
Have we discussed the potential for use in fast food delivery? And delivery trucks for certain business applications could use Robotaxis. Then companies too small to afford a full time driver and truck could save a lot of money renting a Robotruck only when needed.
I don't see robo taxi production as the big problem for Tesla. It's what it will take to get approval, regulation, insurance and permitting for such a thing. This sort of thing to my knowledge has never been done before and the general public is at least uneasy about AI in general.
THE BIGGEST Problem to solve for Robotaxi .. is a Level 5 Autonomous driving system. Considering FSD is only Level 2 ... Robotaxi may never happen anytime soon.
@@KrustyKlown Maybe, but if this is politically unpopular it could take decades to become a political reality. It would be easy to play on the general public's ignorance on AI in general. Everyone thinks the technical problems are the biggest issues, but even when the level gets to 3 or higher, the political problem could ground the whole thing to a stop. People problems are not technical problems. And Elon is not exactly the best guy for this set of problems.
If insurance companies see premiums stable, claims down, they will embrace robo taxi & force through legislators who dare not forbid something shown to be safer, saving on police, medical & disruption costs.
If Tesla begins large scale deployment of Robotaxis next year in the US, they won’t need a $25k EV for the US market, especially if they switch to US produced batteries for the Model 3 - making it once again eligible for $7,500 EV tax credit. With the tax credit, the Model 3 will cost less than $25k in the US.
Your crazy if you think more than 10% of the public is ready to give up personal ownership of a car. They absolutely still need a low cost vehicle to sell.
How can you even consider the effect of a robotaxi when IT DOES NOT EXIST. Not even close!
You think Tesla is all done creating new cars? China is coming, so why bother competing and evolving; they can just keep selling the 3 and Y forever, right? And who cares the 3 still uses manually created bulkheads. On your other point - "large scale robotaxis next year" what are you smoking? The regulation alone will take many years. Public acceptance will be slow; Legacy + Uber will fight tooth and nail, and even IF they succumb and sign on to use Tesla's tech - that transition will take several years for new hardware. Look at how legacy signed on to use the Supercharger network. They all gave a two year runway to just change a simple charge port. We are at least half a decade away from meaningful revenue generation from FSD, imo.
@@proximoAZhe never said anything about giving up personal ownership of a car. He said a model 3 would be less than 25k
@@sportbikeguy9875 To make the numbers work people would need to give up their vehicles. Today uber has 1.5 million active drivers and each only drive part time. So it would only take about 250,000 Robo taxi to fill that need because they work 24/7 vs part time average Uber worker. So the demand for current ride would be filled quickly. After that you would need to convince people to give up their personal car and start taking the Robotaxi everywhere to find more business.
Why would Tesla sell to Fleet Operators And not provide the product directly to the customer? The more parties are involved, the less profit they can make.
I think that nobody is talking about the obvious. Stop thinking about tiny little robotaxes and think instead about all of the people moving vehicles that exists today. Every airport
Has a shuttle
Bus, every hotel has a shuttle bus to and from the airport every city every municipality has people moving buses and all of the aforementioned mentioned follow the exact same loop route over and over again. All Tesla has to do is produce a driverless passenger vehicle that holds 20 to 25 people, and they will be able to sell it to every airport every municipality every hotel etc.
These venues will save over 200000 a year per vehicle just on labor and maintenance costs. That is a driver brakes oil changes etc. Per year.
This approach still holds on to the old mass transit approach. Better I just get into the next Robotaxi and tell it where I need to go. So me and the next passenger can get a quick ride irrespective of where I am standing or where I want to get out. Cheaper ‘Personalized transport’ is the goal - not cheaper public transport.
Never seen such a conference call with many people and only one speaking without stopping to let other speak
@farzyness I think your airline differentiation analogy makes a great deal of sense. An d who knows: maybe some airlines will become variable transport mode operations, getting you to the airport from your home in their cars and bringing you to the destination after your flight in another, shaping your travel experience from start to end? One thing from a business case perspective, that you could take a closer look at, is how Rolls Royce have a whole model around the leasing of airplane engines and servicing them worldwide. They track their engines on the planes with GPS and telemetry and can tell the airline in advance when an issue is coming up that needs maintenance at the airport they're headed to, so it can get fixed before the next take-off. Not sure if Tesla would be interested at their scale of production in this degree of granularity, but it's worth thinking about stuff like this when fleshing out future business models around robotaxis.
Is the robo taxi going to be a 2 seater or a 4/5 seater?
People seem to now solely be focused on robotaxis and humanoid robots. Have we moved on from Tesla being able to mass produce 10-20 million vehicles by 2030 at industry leading margins?
Doesn’t robotaxi count as a vehicle 😏
Edit: I might have misread your comment, I interpreted it as Tesla isn’t focusing on producing 20-30M vehicles by 2030 anymore, my bad 😏
What does Tesla do with lease returns?
I agree with the fleet concept. Just makes sense from an ownership, insurance, maintenance costs, liability point of view.
I also think they will split production between Robotaxi and 25k car instead of going all on one one or the other. It's the same platform and designs, just one has pedal and steering wheel.
Boeing actually manages the interior assembly and also typically controls maintenance. Inaccurate analogy, but understand the point.
What will it do for Tesla stock price? Will it double with this alone by the time robo taxi is actually running? Or will it be just wait and see?
Since Tesla has been battery constrained in a variety of ways for several years, maybe the best opportunity would be to sell Robotaxis to fleets while ramping up the next GEN vehicle. Selling them for example, 12 at a time to fleets for city robotaxi service would bring in revenue comparable to a semi, and have a comparable outsized impact while not cannibalizing Model 3/Y sales until volumes are high enough for individual sales to be profitable.
Lower cost robo taxis could have ads for local restaurants / bars/ entertainment / events as they travel.
I love how everybody hates ads, but still, we are so used to them that now we are just like : yeah trow some ads into everything we see!!
NYC has a permitting program for demonstrating/testing autonomous vehicles.
Robotaxi will be HUGE... in 10-15 years. It's more than just getting the tech right at this point. The need the platform and production and then roll out and then slow adoption and acceptance by the public. I think that part is going to be a LOT slower than many think in a lot of places.
My thoughts on Robotaxi: develop a lower range, cheaper Model 3 now, make it Robo later and take your time developing the cheaper platform. Who wants to taxi around in a tiny size compact? Cabs are fairly decent sized vehicles. I liked riding around in a Model 3 UBER.
40kwh or 200 miles robo taxi for city is actually a good idea to save cost/improve production.
UA-cam removed Brasil conversation???
Good analysis/prediction
Another way to put it, lots of speculation and guessing.
Maravilha de live muito esclarecedora
Musk said that everyday Tesla owners can just have their Tesla’s running as a robotaxi while they’re at work or whenever they’re not using it
Agree with Farzad. I bought my 2023 SR+ 3 because I was looking for an entry level luxury car with power. -7500 credit and trade in, cost was under $30K. How is this car $38,990??? It's a steal!
What will happen to oem?
Model 3 is price disadvantaged with the Model Y since it doesn’t qualify for Federal Incentives. You would expect Model 3 to have more orders with the lower cost, but that’s not the reality. So I’m surprised Tesla doesn’t make the Model 3 even more cheaper. Knock off $5K and make it qualify for Federal Incentives. Add a hatchback version and replace the sunroof with a metal roof. Add cloth seats.
lol the thumbnail
The take rate for unsupervised fsd will be enormous
They can do both at the same time!
Totally… Make the internal Network available to the marketplace for their business function and features. 🙌🏽☀️
What if I want the Tesla’ Ludacris Model for the “Pimp My Ride” Experience for a night out with friends? 😎🤗
Listening to this guy, I have a feeling this isn't going to end well?
It's easy to make a list of reasons why a car needs "normal" controls. With drive by wire, it would be easy to have the steering wheel and peddles fold out of the way and turn on RoboTaxi mode. Saying 8/8 is the RoboTaxi only announcement reduces the Osborn effect for the next six months. Can't wait to have one or two and rent it out 80% of the time.
13000 cabs in NY. Tesla's projected production?
Exactly!
IMO, the Robotaxi and the Model 2 are basically the same car. Debuting Robotaxi first allows Tesla to scale up and ramp the production system without actually selling Model 2s and thus incurring the osborne effect on the Model 3 and Model Y. To further explain: lets say it takes 15 months for a finished Model 2 production line to ramp up to max capacity, a run rate of 350K cars per year. During the first 8 months or so of that production ramp, Telsa might make only 20K or so of these cars. This is the time during which the cars would only be used in specific local markets for small robotaxi fleets. You know, they deploy a couple thousand in Las Vegas, A couple thousand in San Francsisco, a couple thousand in Austin and so and and so on. This will start the process of figuring out what a real robotaxi fleet could look like, somewhat of a beta testing program.
Then when that production line hits Three thousand units a week, and there's thirty thousand or so of them sitting on lots ready to transit--I'd estimate sometime near the end of 2025--Tesla will release one of those short videos on X showing off a steering wheel controller that you can plug into the Model 2 to use it as a regular car, then list the model 2s for sale on the website.
I agree. Elon himself mentioned the 'Robotaxi variant' of the next gen car.
Tesla stock is the most followed stock in the stock market. You guys do the research, I will listen and invest. 😊
CNBS(?) news caption today stating that Robo taxis "could" be substantial. Ha...talk about understatements!
This will have to be a phased rollout. Likely Tesla lease existing cars for robo taxi work, while they build to scale purpose built robo taxi, that will then be leased out, likely on a royalty model where leaser tips up to Tesla some fraction of profits. This can obliterate public service transport, with huge savings for customers & good profits for leaser. Thanks for sharing!
Hopefully the new gen vehicle is a success. Most important car in their lineup
Except it's not a "vehicle".
It's a "platform".
Imagine 3 cubes.
Each containing a different layout.
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The "Platform" is the concept of each cube being built on all 4 sides simultaneously. (Maybe top and bottom as well?)
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The "vehicle" depends on the combination of those cubes.
.
Then, you add a "skate".
Maybe with 2, 4, 6, 8 seats.
.
Maybe nothing on the skate below cubes 2+3 ("van")
.
Maybe cube 2 longer? (extended van)
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Maybe seats in that extended cube? (minibus)
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Maybe a pickup bed as "cube 3"? (THAT would be the "Not North America" Small Pickup)
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etc
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I imagined 12 variations in 10 seconds, driven or autonomous.
@@rogerstarkey5390 wtf
Very creative 👍
People are catastrophically underestimating the demand for robo taxis, it exceeds Uber and taxi demand by four or five orders of magnitude. If Tesla can make a profit at fifty cents a mile or less, around the cost of private ownership, and provide the far greater convenience of robo taxis over private ownership, quickly a huge number of people will sell their cars and just use a robo taxi from there on.
Only if the cost is orders of magnitude cheaper, and I really don't buy Tasha Keeney's spreadsheet here. It comes down to the owner making about $12k/year in profit, with a lot more hassle (ie, dealing with the public, dealing with the body shop, etc).
Yes, but they are also GROSSLY overestimating how fast a switch to robotaxis will occur. This will be a generational shirt that takes 10-25 years to reach the final vision many predict. Yes it's coming, but no it's not happening fast.
farzad brother……. in usa, do u really think there is a market for a car smaller than the 3? Ive been in one-- nice but-- cozy
I think the point is it needs to accommodate luggage of travelers; a hatchback will always store more than a sedan.
Elon will show the Robot taxi without the steering wheel and pedals but NOT the gen 2 car itself to to reduce damaging sales of current product. But gen 2 is still going to be coming.
You are such a homer. there's so many nice cars out there. nobody is married to tesla. it's just another very nice choice. I'll be buying ioniq 5N which i feel is much more exciting then any teslas right now. it's ok for consumers to buy other products.
If the price is right, I can see myself owning no car, just bike and occasional robo taxi.
If i can afford it, I would love FSD and a robot. I would need to see some evidence before I would step into a robo taxi. This will happen much sooner than most people think. FSD is already very capable, will re-assess in a couple of months.
The people throwing up in the robotaxi, among anything else they could possibly do, is the #1 reason why I'm not getting involved in it. Especially at first. There's going to be a lot of taxis getting trashed, because we don't live in a civilized society yet. And I already know some of the terrible things that are going to happen to the Optimus bot, just like Elon is predicting.
The interior cameras will take care of a lot of these issues. 1 warning then banned from using the service.
My guess is if you are operating a fleet that generates income for you while You do NOTHING, you may find it worth your while to pay someone to clean/maintain the vehicle.
@@paulragains5340 "I create nothing. I own."
Level 3 so drivers can watch videos. text, read a book just no naps. That will drive Tesla sales thru the roof. Robotaxi is a different audience. For Farzad to say robotaxi will take off like smart phones, PC's internet etc. is just nuts. Will it happen sure but it will take much longer and be much more difficult. Think of Africa and to think Robotaxi will rapidly expand compared to smart phones is more nuts. I know he was just getting excited.
I think literally the whole point of full self-driving is so you can have ability to put on tesla taxi fleet and be able to make money and plus another thing A lot of people are missing is the full self-driving includes basically insurance from Tesla because they are the driver of the vehicle and operator of the vehicle they will be paying for the insurance and you will basically have Property Insurance on your vehicle only...
What YOU are missing is that if there's a collision, the automated vehicle will have 360° video and a log of all parameters, plus variable speed and position of every other vehicle involved.
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That's going to sway the argument in favour of the FSD vehicle and insurance crease the odds of liability for the human drivers of the other vehicles involved.
Not always, but *usually*
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That will cause a HUGE problem for those insuring those other vehicles.
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If their odds of being liable increase, let's say from 55% to 80%, that company is out of business *very* quickly.
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As more automated vehicles arrive, then start communicating (!)
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If one has an accident, it will "ping" a message.... "vehicles in this area at save logs" of
1) Direct witness to incident.
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2) Vehicle registration XXXX (the other driver) exhibiting incorrect behaviour.
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If that human was erratic *approaching* the eventual scene of the accident, forget trying to prove liability against the AV.
Tesla ain't close to Level 5 Autonomy .. why are we even talking about any of this?? FSD is only Level 2, after a decade of Tesla development.
Any mon and pop potentialy can own a small fleet or Yellow Cab, Hertz or any other current fleet opperators can participate. Tesla will recieve a share of every ride.
This is insane.
This is a big disruption to all and everything we do. This is insane.
I dont agree with majority of what you said Farzad. Tesla would want the customer to have an experience they expect. It would be crazy to allow different providers to totally customize the interior of the car. Tesla may release multiple styles and you would be able to order the style you want (ex Gaming setup) but it would hurt tesla to allow providers to screw with Tesla brand.
But what about people like Inara and her shuttle from the Firefly series? To quote Jayne, "I'll be in my bunk."
lol in what world would a fleet get into making car interiors
I want flying cars. Hope it can materialise by 2500.
TY! Tesla's Uber competitor needs to start organizing now. Will start small, with human drivers and expand, just like Uber and waymo. A NEW MARKET for Tesla is how $ are earned. Time to dev transportation SERVICE 1app 2FSD 3regulatory 4safety 5infrastructure build out 6marketing S3XY. Initially Subsidize new and used Tesla EV that drive for the todays service, sell more EVs today too. Tightens existing EV business, brand names Service, markets fsd and EV... Many 1st and 2nd effects today.
I think you're totally missing the point of Elon Musk putting steer-by-wire in the cybertruck the cybertruck will be able to be a Tesla taxi as well... the whole point of steer by wire is so they can cut off the steering wheel once it's being used as a Tesla Taxi.
I think literally the whole point of full self-driving is so you can have this service and be able to make money and plus another thing A lot of people are missing is the full self-driving includes basically insurance from Tesla because they are the driver of the vehicle and operator of the vehicle they will be paying for the insurance and you will basically have Property Insurance on your vehicle only...
tesla needs to augment its manufacturing network by licensing fsd to automakers like hyundai etc vs doing all the manufacturing now
Later.
Not yet
Elon said that they will be able to produce both cars at the same time. With a unboxed method this will be easy.
When did he say that? Reports are Tesla changed its plans a few months ago to prioritize this robotaxi thing.
listen thru the whole thing.
Robo taxi will scale. Optimus would be the only higher selling product. 25k car will only have good margins once Robo taxi is at volume.
I agree that Tesla should forge ahead on next gen platform for less affluent car owners. Tesla must keep pressure on Legacy automakers... because without Tesla, the war against combustion engines will slow to a stop. At the same time, Tesla should open a second front with robotaxis and go global as fast as possible. There are two billion combustion engines out there -- this will not be a quick battle.
While I think it’s still a few years away, I think everyone who drives for a living should start to think about what job or career they are going to switch to.
5 million driver jobs in US. Now add in the 8 million illegal aliens and AI gutting everything from creative jobs to programming to healthcare.
obvious issue is most Tesla owners never experienced FSD and they may probably 'll never try it. Its psychological. Best way to break this is to make people appreciate it is when they take uber(robotaxi) rides. so first step is to make current uber drivers migrate to tesla cars. robotaxi unveil this 8/8 is genius way to enable this migration giving drivers higher earning potential and ease of driving through FSD. if most uber drivers buy into this, most people will experience FSD .
I want a tesla. I just don't wanna to finance 40k. I want something under 30k. I've never had a car payment and I'm 35. But I really want a tesla 😊
Tesla now offers 0% for 5 years, plus you get about $5k off most models, plus a $7500 tax credit. I promise you Tesla prices will be higher this summer due to record gas prices.
@@Dave-cf4vd only in China for the 0% I thought?
By 2030, personal ownership of cars will be rare. Many brands of self driving EVs will take over in large cities when human drivers are banned from the inner city roads. "Robo Taxis" will be sold in fleet lots with very few human operated vehicles made available for commercial and special purpose needs. No more city busses either, that are nearly empty except for morning and after work commutes - they will be displaced by "robo cabs". It's happening faster than most folks realize. Remember Pay Phones?
I remember phones went into the hands of people, so they had more opportunity to make calls even though the expense was much higher. You are talking about car ownership decreasing, so people have less mobility. I don't see that happening without a very authoritarian government forcing it on society.
Wow this whole clip is basically Farzad talking. and talking and talking ... Just title it Farzard's guess on tesla robotaxi.
7:44 your contradicting yourself. If there’s only a quarter million robo taxis needed why would they sublet the fleet out?
Boeing and airbus are in a very different industry and would easily be slapped with monopoly legislation.
Why do you need a dedicated robotaxi vehicle to have a robotaxi, why can a model 3, y, x, s, ct be used as a robotaxi? Could this be the announcement 8/8?
Daily cleaning alone is not an easy task. I agree the fleet and private market can do that better. The infracture set up would take too much time.
I dont agree with this customizable thing. Tesla could easily design a robotaxi configuration that fits all need. With seats being able to turn, a flip tables and such. Remember we want less complexity not more
I predict Robotaxi will be more exciting for shareholders than customers. It could be Tesla's most boring but profitable product
If robo taxi is deployed in large scale, it is good for users but will be bad for Tesla company and Tesla investors. Imagine the scenario where few thousand robo taxis can cover a city.. where few million people would have bought a car .. Tesla can’t sell more cars if robo taxi is successful. People don’t buy more cars if affordable robo taxi service is available..
Why would you pay Tesla a token fee to be part of the network when you already paid the $12,000 for FSD😊
How come everyone doesn’t buy a Tesla?
Well, for me. It’s not the car or the price. I love the car. I can afford it.
However….
Insurance in NJ is absolutely insane. $6000 a year for a Tesla! I have a clean driving record. No points. No accident. But I do live in a major city.
So that’s why I don’t have a Tesla.
The reason everybody isn't buying a Tesla is the limited range compared to gas or hybrid vehicles.
I own Tesla stock, and I'm having a Tesla delivered in a couple of days. Thats real. Robothype is getting out of hand. Yes there's been a lot of progress on FSD based on the few minutes of vids shown on UA-cam; swell. Please remember that damned product was supposed to be on the road 4 years ago, FSD and Robotesla were the reason to buy a Model 3. The Model 3 would be an appreciating asset. Did any of that happen? Did I get anything wrong? Now there's a specialized vehicle being developed, another future product that uses FSD, which still requires supervision. No one from Tesla, that I know of,, has even hinted at the possibility of the Feds "blessing" FSD. Instead of hype, based on yet more planned hype, and past and demonstrable failure over the past 4 years regarding the inability to produce a product that was supposed to be released 4 years ago, wouldn''t it make sense to at least get some degree of buy-in from a regulatory agency before the latest and planned months of hype happen? Imagine your family and friends being in a car today running the new and improved FSD that is totally autonomous, and can't be overridden by a human. Are you all that confident the current release of FSD will always get it right all the time? SpaceX spacecraft and in particular, the Dragon9 is fully autonomous, and carries humans into LEO, Yett it is designed so that computers can be overridden by humans. I'm not sure how ya'll are willing to bet that computers, running different versions of operating systems, attempting to drive autonomously interwoven with 10's of millions of cars on the road today will get it right all the time. What % of wrong is acceptable? What will be the acceptable death rate? Ford is always an interesting case study in risk/reward. Ford released the Mustang with a known engineering defect that would cause car fires. It did and people died. Ford, in their infinite wisdom, made the calculation that it was more cost-effective to kill a few people instead of altering a known engineering design defect, which at the time, was approximately $.50/car What's the Tesla/FSD bet?
Short it.
I really find the idea of selling robotaxi vehicles illogical. If no one else can build it, Tesla can own the market. They can contract vehicle detailing services to clean their vehicles until Tesla has service centers for robotaxi vehicles set-up.
Tesla has noted they have massive piles of cash. They really do not need a partner or other vendors to help make the robotaxi vehicles as service happen.
It is amazing to think the Tesla compact will help lower development costs, because it will share the same platform, so that will make it more financially feasible.
As hot and heavy people are over the robotaxi is, remember legal issues on many levels will need to be solved before mass scale happens.
With BYD, among others spreading so fast, the unboxed process and compact will need to be truly scaling in 2026. It will be easier to get the compact spread across many markets to take on the competition. Robotaxi will come in later to help make transportation for all happen.
What was the point if only one person talks???
"In 2035 onwards it behooves the company to go all in on robots and autonomy" 2035???!!!? seriously?!
What’s ur predicted timeline? Haha
@@roylim1570 Well if it's not closer to 2025 than 2035 then ALL investors in TSLA are in deep shit for 10 years!
They already have Robotaxi on the road all they need to flip the switch on all the used cars/ lease returns they have stocked up.
No.
They also have to get it regulated.
Let's see how much "resistance" there is.
.
My prediction?
If you think you've seen FUD now, give it 12 months.
I drive Uber and ask almost everyone if they would go for a Robo taxi 95% say no it’s gonna be 5% of adoption at the beginning. The young people will go for it. The older people will definitely take their time I can see in 10 years. All cars will be Robo taxis.
Farzhad. No. Tesla Robotaxi is $100k profit per car. Giving away all the profit is not smart. Unless FSD the life saving program is $2500/mth.
Even when robotaxi are a fraction of the cost, consumers still want to have a car of their own.
No wait times, but depart at your own convenience. Not having to put up with the mess someone else left. That car can double as home battery. Somewhat more luxury than the plain utility robotaxi.
Correct. And who wants hobo-orgies in their personal tesla car? What Tasha Keeney missed is that upkeep of robot cars is going to be way higher than cars with a human driver. Want proof? You don't ever want to buy a car I previously rented; that motor is toast, and the chassis is cracked from jumping.
The idea that Tesla will solve FSD by 8/8 or even launch a physical vehicle by then is ludicrous. The event will likely be nothing more than a presentation of preliminary design concepts and a guesstimated timeline. This in itself will be a let down to WS but to add to it, Elon will give an unclear presentation that will not provide the fiscal guidance WS expects.
Why don't these "tesla analysts" get this???
@@Dave-cf4vd Because there is far less click revenue generated in non bullish content.
Tesla will take on that complex, it will be worth it. Why sell a $40,000 vehicle that can make you $100,000 a year?
The amount of traffic robotaxies will induce will be mindboggling. Traffic jams everywhere all day long.
Personaly own car market will be killed by robotaxi. You will not afford to buy a car anymore since it will not be sold under $100,000 with large margin of $25,000 cost as built.
This will potentially overprice the cross country trips as its pricing will be optimized for local transportation.
but no one who drives anywhere it snows is buying the 38k rear-wheel drive 3. they're getting the long range AWD 3 or Y. so you're easily talking 48k for a lot of people which does push some people out of their price range. This is what elon is talking about when he talks about the rav4 in his earnings call. Even with 50% down it's an irresponsible amount of car loan for most. I wish they offered a standard range AWD version.
How is robotaxi going to protect itself against sabotage as we saw with the cars in San Francisco where pedestrians put cones on the hood and caused them to stop.
You don't, government has to enforce law and do their job
cameras in the car, detect damage, lock the doors, drive to police station. Perp & evidence in a tidy package.
I get the countering the Osborne Effect argument, but tesla could also just STFU and make the $25K car and unveil closer to the actual release instead of years in advance and once again overpromising and under delivering.
Even if Tesla fully solves FSD by 8/8 and announces a robotaxi, this is years out. I personally wouldn’t do anything differently with Robotaxies. I would still buy my own car and I would take many years before there are enough robotaxies on the road to make ordering one is a reliable alternative to Uber. Reliability/time is more important than price for most.
This will change every way possible about people having cars.
Same with elons hyper tunnels and when we all live on mars
I’ve been following your videos a lot, recently. This video was so unpleasant, only hearing your opinion, completely cutting out others’ responses. Boy, you really love the sound of your own voice, don’t you?
Not true. Farzad, if you read this remember that you have earned our respect by being informative, entertaining, and most importantly, humble. Don’t change a thing!
This guys speaks as if everyone is expected to have full trust in Tesla Motors. It is like he is living in a world where everyone is suppose to think like him.
You don't have to trust it and you don't have to like it. It is happening regardless of your feelings and emotions
But somehow you trust random Uber driver
@@Cal-zk4nc Just because it may happen does not mean it will be widely adopted
@@dmitrii336 I trust an Uber driver more than i trust this computer on wheels
It's really unfortunate that nobody on this panel seems to have ever owned, managed, built, or even worked in a manufacturing environment. Or at a senior level in a new product marketing environment addressing a national market. Or in sales management in a national company.
Your analysis ignores product specification, and talks about the autonomous robotaxi marketplace without any discernable expertise in transportation systems from the perspective of economic analysis, financial, manufacturing, marketing, or any other specific expertise that would be able to start up and fly this kind of business.
What do you call yourselves? American Journalists?😆😆 This conversation is nicely summed up by the goofy pic on the leader page.
Look, you're all nice guys. But I don't hear anything practical here and there are so many wild guesses, it's actually unhelpful.
They will pee, shit & barf in your car
Yep
I will give you a mindblowing thought. The cyber truck platform was the robotaxi all along.
The cybertruck was a complete fake out, a ruse. A slight of hand distraction.
The cybertruck platform has all wheel steering and good height from the ground, easy to get into from a curb after a druked night at the club. The top body configuration will be swapped out for a new cab design, that has seats that face each other with gull wing doors.
Definitely not.
Somewhere in the top 5 "Rules to build a modern taxi" is
"Accessible to all"....
.
That means
Wide opening "doors".
Low, flat floor.
.
Those 2 requirements rules out the Cybertruck format.
.
Go to the Presentation with "Vehicles under sheets".
THE CUBE is "the Taxi" AND "The Compact".
.
(The other one is the Roadster and I think I can prove it.)
@@Christian-fx9ur
These guys have no idea of the physical requirement for "a taxi".
Maybe if they looked at the best city cab in the world (debatably) in terms of access *for all* they might "get it".
.
Take a London Black cab.
Chop off the majority of the front end, where the engine is.
THAT is (or should be) the starting point for a 21st century taxi.
That is my bet. Cybertruck will be the robotaxi. Cargo and passangers.
Like everything else, the self-driving problem will soon be considered easily solvable. Just like the electric scooters everywhere many companies will be offering self-driving taxis.