Thank you for an interesting talk. My own view is that Trump is unlikely to win later this year. Based on evidence that has emerged in the last few days. It’s no bad thing that Europe should have a greater integrated military force. In my view the EU should have given this a much greater priority in the past 25 years.
I agree entirely. However, I think the the isolationism Trump expresses is not dependent upon his presence in US politics and the EU must adjust to this reality.
The EU should have done a lot of things in the last 25 years and it has been totally mismanaged by France and Germany, the energy debacle being the icing on the cake to date and illegal migrant immigration is a close second, it could be that defence blunders will surpass all that if the EU does not step up in Ukraine and the conflict widens, the EU is not working in the present form, is unaffordable that's why it has a big budget deficit and it's banker, Germany, is running out of money. The EU can no longer can be claimed as keeping the peace in Europe as it funded Russia's barbaric invasion of Ukraine!?!
Possibly not. But the bugger is certainly "working on it". Remind me again of the number of USD'S he stands to pay in finds & costs ? $370 million wasn't it ?
When Trump was president, he said if you don’t pay your 2%, we won’t help protect you my God the money started flowing in, I would like to see him move the headquarters to England, but I’m just a lonely US citizen.
No, Trump will not destroy NATO. But as an isolationist one should not be surprised if Trump leaves NATO, the Europeans will not be of much help in a conflict with China any way. NATO will continue as the European defense organization. The nuclear deterrence will need to be expanded, though. Also the conventional forces, but that is already in the works, somewhat. And not being involved in a US-China conflict might become advantageous for the Europeans economically.
I do not think Trump (or those driving his foreign policy) wants a war with China. But he does want to detach the US from China, above all economically. This could mean he continues current US policy to encircle and contain China, by using Japan, S Korea, Taiwan (probably) and Indonesia and India as a chain of allies. But that is a chain China will seek to break, which could indeed lead to a more serious confrontation. China has been linking up with Russia and expanding its influence in Central Asia precisely because it seeks a continental strategy to compensate for the maritime containment such encirclement by the US creates. But Trump is an isolationist far more than Biden and the traditional US foreign policy establishment, which may mean his Western perimeter is Hawaii, (and Australia) not Okinawa, Seoul, and the straights of Taiwan and Malacca. .
@@JohnStevens-gp7geChina cannot be isolated without dealing with Europe. Americans forget that China's first export market is not the US, but Europe. Trump is widely despised in Europe. If the US elects him again, China could very well make a play for Europe.
You may be right. And what China can offer Europe is to get rid of Putin and make peace in Ukraine. Indeed having such leverage may be a crucial element in why the Chinese have used Putin and even in the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. Certainly Russia is now a Chinese satellite and the issue will be where in the long run, Europe's eastern and China's north-western frontier are. But China is fundamentally much more interested in reducing US influence over Japan and S Korea, and in increasing its power over E and SE Asia, than it is in Siberia. or Central Asia. On your first point, the US can isolate itself from China economically without Europe, though this would entail an increase in US protectionism against the EU, which Trump advocates. @@laurentdrozin812
Trump: "I insist every NATO country spends the full 2% target, no more free loaders, thus strengthening NATO." Commentariat: "He WaNtS tO dEsTrOy NaTo!"
No he won't destroy it, that would take too much effort on his part (when he could be enjoying a nice round of golf). But he will damage it's credibility, which could be fatal for the organization in the long run. Allies in Europe will have to hastily arrange a security pact if Trump does become president again. This has been a long time coming, an after-effect of the cold war and adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Regardless of who holds the presidency the US is moving to a more isolationist stance overall.
Very sober, down-to-earth, realistic commentary, as always!
Excellent work. Thank you.
Excellent
great commentary as always
When you live next to a real life version of Mordor.. … However, the American’s will not love a world where Europe does not leap when America calls.
I hope so
I certainly do to.
When exactly have the Americans ever swooped in and saved the day?... Except in their imagination?
It would be the best thing he could do for the rest of the world, but I doubt he would/will!
Dump the Dumpster.
Thank you for an interesting talk. My own view is that Trump is unlikely to win later this year. Based on evidence that has emerged in the last few days. It’s no bad thing that Europe should have a greater integrated military force. In my view the EU should have given this a much greater priority in the past 25 years.
I agree entirely. However, I think the the isolationism Trump expresses is not dependent upon his presence in US politics and the EU must adjust to this reality.
The EU should have done a lot of things in the last 25 years and it has been totally mismanaged by France and Germany, the energy debacle being the icing on the cake to date and illegal migrant immigration is a close second, it could be that defence blunders will surpass all that if the EU does not step up in Ukraine and the conflict widens, the EU is not working in the present form, is unaffordable that's why it has a big budget deficit and it's banker, Germany, is running out of money. The EU can no longer can be claimed as keeping the peace in Europe as it funded Russia's barbaric invasion of Ukraine!?!
Hopefully yes!
Donnelly is a bundle of laughs.
Possibly not. But the bugger is certainly "working on it". Remind me again of the number of USD'S he stands to pay in finds & costs ? $370 million wasn't it ?
When Trump was president, he said if you don’t pay your 2%, we won’t help protect you my God the money started flowing in, I would like to see him move the headquarters to England, but I’m just a lonely US citizen.
No, Trump will not destroy NATO. But as an isolationist one should not be surprised if Trump leaves NATO, the Europeans will not be of much help in a conflict with China any way. NATO will continue as the European defense organization. The nuclear deterrence will need to be expanded, though. Also the conventional forces, but that is already in the works, somewhat. And not being involved in a US-China conflict might become advantageous for the Europeans economically.
I do not think Trump (or those driving his foreign policy) wants a war with China. But he does want to detach the US from China, above all economically. This could mean he continues current US policy to encircle and contain China, by using Japan, S Korea, Taiwan (probably) and Indonesia and India as a chain of allies. But that is a chain China will seek to break, which could indeed lead to a more serious confrontation. China has been linking up with Russia and expanding its influence in Central Asia precisely because it seeks a continental strategy to compensate for the maritime containment such encirclement by the US creates. But Trump is an isolationist far more than Biden and the traditional US foreign policy establishment, which may mean his Western perimeter is Hawaii, (and Australia) not Okinawa, Seoul, and the straights of Taiwan and Malacca. .
@@JohnStevens-gp7geChina cannot be isolated without dealing with Europe. Americans forget that China's first export market is not the US, but Europe. Trump is widely despised in Europe. If the US elects him again, China could very well make a play for Europe.
You may be right. And what China can offer Europe is to get rid of Putin and make peace in Ukraine. Indeed having such leverage may be a crucial element in why the Chinese have used Putin and even in the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. Certainly Russia is now a Chinese satellite and the issue will be where in the long run, Europe's eastern and China's north-western frontier are. But China is fundamentally much more interested in reducing US influence over Japan and S Korea, and in increasing its power over E and SE Asia, than it is in Siberia. or Central Asia. On your first point, the US can isolate itself from China economically without Europe, though this would entail an increase in US protectionism against the EU, which Trump advocates. @@laurentdrozin812
No because he'll be locked up!
In answer to the question, YES, he'll be doing the bidding of his boss, Putin. Putin has compromat on him.
Trump: "I insist every NATO country spends the full 2% target, no more free loaders, thus strengthening NATO."
Commentariat: "He WaNtS tO dEsTrOy NaTo!"
Yes He will ,He nut about his poll height , He been embrace putin , democrat accuse him Russian help .
Oh ,come on ! Trump doesn't have that much power ....don't give him the attention .
No he won't destroy it, that would take too much effort on his part (when he could be enjoying a nice round of golf).
But he will damage it's credibility, which could be fatal for the organization in the long run. Allies in Europe will have to hastily arrange a security pact if Trump does become president again.
This has been a long time coming, an after-effect of the cold war and adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Regardless of who holds the presidency the US is moving to a more isolationist stance overall.