If a mob has a 1% chance to drop and item, this does not mean that if you kill 100 mobs you will get the item. That is known as a gamblers fallacy. The 100th mob still has a 1% chance to drop the item.
a 1% drop chance has a 63.4% chance of dropping within 100 kills. Simply take percentage chance of it not dropping in decimal form (0.99) to the power of number of kills (0.99^100) = chance of not seeing item drop. So when he says 5000 runs on average that means it takes 5000 runs to get to 50%. He's not saying it will drop after 5000 runs.
4:15 Don't have to understand math for this calculation not to make any sense, it only drops from the 2 bosses why are you even trying to calculate the drop chance across all mobs
@@artvandalay13 I think the calculation of 0.00006% chance was kind of stupid, but I think he just wanted to put things into perspective. He should have just multiplied 5000 dungeon runs with 300 mobs per run to get the 1,500,000 mob kills number. Which there's nothing wrong with this number. He's just saying how many mobs you'd probably have to kill to get this item, since you can't skip straight to the boss.
@@blazn0 He was spreading the total dungeon drop %, across all Mobs , in order to compare it to the other dungeon (where the item drops from all mobs), and a single mob basis... to give the drop % per mob comparison, even though it does not work like that in practice. (In practice it is twenty 0.2 % chances VS. two 0.2% chances, per run)
bought a Pendulum of Doom off the auction house for 99g three weeks into classic. I look forward to selling it for thousands of gold in the later phases.
Keep in mind that the only factor isn't drop chance. It's also how many times you can get a chance at the drop. Yes, Bindings of the Windseeker has a "high" drop chance, but remember that you can only attempt that drop chance AT MOST once every 7 days. You need take that into account. Also, about the Zul'Farrak pants, it's not 0.02% chance. 2 chances at 0.01% doesn't double the chances. Two chances at 50% doesn't mean 100%.
@@EvlEgle please bro … Don't talk when you stop school at 12 years … if an item which could be drop on 2 mob with 50% drop chance Don't mean 150% chance to get it … but 75% … to get a 100 % chance, the item need to to be dropped with 100% chance from one of theses mobs
1:54 actually statistics doesnt work like that. 0.02% chance of dropping is 99.98% chance of not dropping, 1 - 0.9998^30 = 0.6% chance of dropping 1 or more of these.
@@aslushymachine You are the one getting confused , his statistics were on point, you just didn't comprehend them, and the reason he did it in the first place was useless. He took the total 0.2% dungeon chance, and spread it across the total amount of mobs in the dungeon (he did this to compare it to the other dungeon, with the axe) 0.2 / 300
i enjoy the video for the item list and explanation of what they are, but i dislike the gambler's fallacy style of math. killing multiple mobs doesn't increase the % chance of an item dropping, i just gives you more chances against that % roll. ie - killing the two bosses with a .01% chance to drop does not make the chance .02%. it makes it so that you roll 2 different times against .01%. if it worked with the math presented in video, after 10,000 kills you'd be guaranteed to drop and keep on dropping with each kill thereafter
lol I was actually going to write the same. The Chance is 0.0198 actually for two repititions and is increasing but never reaching 100% with more repititions if calculated correctly.
You didn't include the rarest item in WoW's history. Baron Rivendares Deathcharger pre drop chance buff. It was 0.02% chance to drop, and theres 4 other people that wanted it too. I actually solo farmed for this mount in TBC and eventually got it. You could do a run in around 20 min, and Rivendare did hit hard even as a level 70. Then they buffed the dropchance to a 1-2% chance later. I think it was the patch that introduced achievements.
lmfao... those pants dropped in ZF the other day and the only person that could use it got loot locked somehow. They were not happy. I had no idea that these were that rare...
I once got the Blade of Hanna as an orc hunter in ZG. Back then, oh, about 20 years ago, it had +11 stats on everything. The weapon had real style; I didn't see anyone else with that weapon back then.
I got them during vanilla, we did multiple runs to get the carrot on a stick and they dropped at some point. Notice how I managed to not say "the trousers dropped". Sorry about the schoolboy humor but it was just glaring for that.
Toguro Why is everyone so toxic online? I just watched this video. And I’m simply stating I have those leggings. That’s it. I’m not special. I just happened to get them.
What about Deathcharger's Reins from Strat UD? This has only 0,04%, but is even way harder to acquire due to the fact that it is only droping from the endboss of an endgame dungeon
OMG I had those pants back in the day - I absolutely hated the way they looked. For a while I had a vest instead of a robe and my male toon looked like a clown. I could not wait to upgrade them.
i found this item, but the green leggings version. like a lvl 55 or 56 pair of pants and it had 50 plus healing on it. but the pants design was the same sold it for 25 gold for the healing specifically though
I have them on Cata Classic as a transmog option. Didn’t realize they were rare lol. I spent 200g for em I think. I use them for transmog once in a while. 🤷♂️
lol these are rookie numbers Runescape has 1/8192 drop chances on certain items from monsters. It's even higher when you are talking about the rare drop table.
Your calculations are wrong. If you have twice a 0.01% chance of getting something, then you have 0.019999% chance of getting it in a run. Also, if you want to distribute the 0.02% chance along 300 occurrences, that would mean 0.0000666733119936147% per mob and 1499850 average mob slaughters (or 0.0000666699779938718% per mob and 1499925 average mob slaughters if you consider the more exact 0.019999%)
You calculated the drop chance wrong, a 0.01% on 2 characters is not a 0.02% chance and you don't have a 100% drop chance after 5000 Runs. if you actually do the calculation you would have a 90% chance to see these leggings drop after 11000 Runs And a 99% chance after 23000 tries but even then out of 100 players there might still be that 1 person would not have gotten these leggings even after running the dungeon 23000 times, and that is only to see this item drop, the chance of then winning the roll vs potential 4 other players is a completely different beast.
erm i just dropped spellshock leggins in ZF, doing some tmog farming. cant find any info on them on wowhead nor none listed on ravencrest AH. can anyone tell me if these are still as rare as they were in the past?
the rarest item in wow is the tailisment of the binding shard a legendary neck piece that only dropped once by mistake. only one person has it and it wont drop again blizzard took it off the loot table as they put it on by mistake. and the guy/guild that had it drop got to keep it. plus its the only neck piece that shows visually on your character
dont know if stupid or trolling... ofc he knows that, but before you kill the boss a single time, you can calculate the odds of getting it after 2 tries which is approximately 0.2% or 0.02% depending on which example.
yea, the math isn't completely right there =) But the numbers are so small, that it wouldn't really matter in this case. so instead of 0.02% it's actually 0.019999%
@@cortynnightshade Well if we do the same thing with a die, and the chance of rolling a 6 is 1/6 - then if you roll it 6 times it doesn't add up to 6/6 (100%). So what we have to do is take the inverse probability (not rolling 6) instead, which in the case of the die would be 5/6 (83.3%). Then we roll the die 6 times which equals (5/6)^6 ( = about 33.48%). This would give us the probability of not rolling a "6", 6 times in a row. So if we want to roll at least a 6 with 6 throws, we subtract those 33.48% from 100% which gives us 66.52%. Same goes for this calculation in the video. If the chance is 0.01% of getting the item, then the chance of not getting the item is 99.99%. Then we have 2 tries of not getting the item, which gives us 99.99%^2 (which equals 99.980001%). We subtract that from 100% which gives us 0.019999%. I hope you were sincerely curious about it.
In the sense that it's 0.025% chance to drop sure. But it does drop from dozens of different mobs, across multiple zones & dungeons, in the 40-46ish range
Just a small and rather pedantic correction: The Leggings are not at all a 0,02% combined from Zul'Farak just because they drop in two bosses. They are still 0,01%. Think of it in bigger percentages. If each boss had a 50% chance of obtaining the leggings and there were two, it would be statistically silly to say you have a 100% chance of obtaining it, because you don't. Statistics don't add up, they are isolated instances -- if you don't get the drop in the first 50% chance, your chances on the second are not statistically increased. Therefore, even if 5 individual mobs had a 0,01% chance of dropping the item, it would still be a 0,01% chance to drop overall per run. The human brain isn't very good at handling things like odds and chances (which is why it's so easy to dupe people with gambling), but it's true. :P
Again unsure if trolling, ignorant or stupid. If the dung has 2 bosses with a 0.01% drop chance then the chance of getting during a single run would be 0.01999%, which he rounded up to 0.02% to make it simpler. The amount of /r/iamverysmart in this comment section is insane.
Gambler's fallacy doesn't apply to basic calculation of probabilities of something occurring. This is perfectly reasonable and done regularly. When done properly, it's the expected outcome, there are deviations which, once again, when done properly, will be accounted for. Gambler's fallacy occurs when the person in the act begins to think previous results affect the next. If 10 coins are flipped, and all land on heads, if that person starts to think the next is more likely to be tails because all the rest were heads, then he's falling prey to the gambler's fallacy. Gambler's fallacy does not occur if a person says "well it'd sure be pretty damn unlikely to flip heads 10,000 times in a row", which is essentially the kind of thing you're doing when you're doing basic odds of occurrence ^ attempts at occurrence maths. The ironic thing about the fallacy I think, is how often people misuse it. EDIT: Worded another way, and simpler: The chance of somebody flipping heads 10,000 times in a row is astronomically low. The chance of somebody flipping heads a 10,000th time after flipping it 9,999 times is still 50/50. Gambler's Fallacy is invoked when the latter isn't believed, not when the former is believed.
Pendulum of Doom is not worth it if you are a Shaman. Just a little heads up. I had that weapon. it was so trash i vendered it. Just so you know. 4 seconds in PvP is a LONG time. You never hit anyone even with Windfury on it. I am not joking. Its a trash item for Shaman. Maybe if stormstrike worked on it better it would say good. No. its trash.
It depends on the item. For me it was a starting quest in Silvermoon that gives a sword with a unique appearance. I vendored it years prior to transmog implementation. Then after they rolled out Item Restoral, I saw it was my chance and I put a ticket in and they gave it back to me. They don't specify a time, but the longer it has been the less likely they can help. In my case it was obvious I completed the quest and it was missing from my collected appearances so that helped I'm sure. If it has been recent for you it can't hurt to put a ticket in. But restored items CANNOT be traded so if you want it to sell then you're out of luck.
Please read up on how probability works... If there are 10 mobs and each has 0.01 percent chance to drop an item, that does not mean that on a run you have a 0.1 percent chance of dropping something. By comparison, if you have 10 mobs with 10 percent chance, that does not mean that after killing these 10 mobs you have a 100 percent chance of dropping something. Please do not confuse people and do not spread bad math information, thanks!
Another comment section math hero with 0 clue, OF COURSE HE KNOWS ITS NOT 100% IF YOU RUN IT ENOUGH. you calculate probability by multiplying the contrary odds, i.e if 10 mobs have a 10% chance it wouldnt be 100%, it would be: (9/10)^10=0.35, 100-35= 65% chance. HOWEVER with numbers as small as 0.01% it REALLY doesnt matter in small samples, for example if 2 mobs have a 0.01% dropchance in a run, it wouldnt be 0.02% but 0.01999% however its way simpler to round up. Stop lecturing people about shit you are clueless about, you're gonna end up on /r/iamverysmart or some shit.
@@XBorlaugX Oh really genius? Then maybe watch the video you are commenting on. For example, he says that an item in Uldaman has 0.02% probability of dropping and approximately 15 to 20 mobs drop it in Uldaman only, so for the whole run you have 0.3% probability (0.02*15=0.3).
It should be odd for females too, if it's odd for males. I don't sed how one would be acceptable if the other isn't, since, in the reverse, if something is acceptable for males it must be considered acceptable for females. Even if it makes little sense, because it's a point of principle. There are obvious exceptions to this, but they are few and far between.
Spellshock leggings? I remember these when I started playing at WoTLK. I was wondering why the random players I was dungeoning with were pissed off with me? I was a warrior but they looked nice in preview so I also needed and got them...I feel bad now, and violated? I sold think I sold them for very cheap.
As a person studying math/statistics, the calculations in this video really hurt my soul :(
Thank you I was looking for that, wtf this is trash
far as i know, i havent seen a single wow player that makes informative videos that actually knows wtf theyre on about :p
i was just going to make a simmaler comment. all easy mistakes tho. i cant even say i fully understand statistics.
I was thinking the same thing :D But I assume he does it for easier comparison :D
I dont understand math, please explain :
So you're telling me that I'd likely have to go through a dungeon 5,000 times to get those pants to drop? Sounds suspiciously similar to real life...
Chance doesn't work that way...
@@PaulaJBean joke went past ya
R/woosh
actually his math was WAY off. Should be more : p
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
yea vaulty thats not how math works on drops lol
What's wrong?
@@SporkyMcFly That's not how math works. Idk what more information you need
@@DefeatLust Explain.
@@SporkyMcFly His math is wrong. Go read the other comments if you need extra clarification bro.
@@DefeatLust you dont know it yourself LMAO
If a mob has a 1% chance to drop and item, this does not mean that if you kill 100 mobs you will get the item. That is known as a gamblers fallacy.
The 100th mob still has a 1% chance to drop the item.
Yeah lot of people fall for the 1% = 100 kills to get it
a 1% drop chance has a 63.4% chance of dropping within 100 kills. Simply take percentage chance of it not dropping in decimal form (0.99) to the power of number of kills (0.99^100) = chance of not seeing item drop. So when he says 5000 runs on average that means it takes 5000 runs to get to 50%. He's not saying it will drop after 5000 runs.
4:15 Don't have to understand math for this calculation not to make any sense, it only drops from the 2 bosses why are you even trying to calculate the drop chance across all mobs
Cause you prolly gotta kill other mobs. Although 300 seems excessive.
@@natesytacct Doesn't change the chance of it dropping from the boss mobs.
@@artvandalay13 I think the calculation of 0.00006% chance was kind of stupid, but I think he just wanted to put things into perspective.
He should have just multiplied 5000 dungeon runs with 300 mobs per run to get the 1,500,000 mob kills number.
Which there's nothing wrong with this number. He's just saying how many mobs you'd probably have to kill to get this item, since you can't skip straight to the boss.
This why my first thought. 0.02% is 0.02% It doesnt decrease or multiple. You can kill a million mobs and the drop change is still 0.02%
@@blazn0 He was spreading the total dungeon drop %, across all Mobs , in order to compare it to the other dungeon (where the item drops from all mobs), and a single mob basis... to give the drop % per mob comparison, even though it does not work like that in practice.
(In practice it is twenty 0.2 % chances VS. two 0.2% chances, per run)
bought a Pendulum of Doom off the auction house for 99g three weeks into classic. I look forward to selling it for thousands of gold in the later phases.
So? Did you make bank or what??
@@wingnutmcspazatron3957 I sold it for 1700g in December
@@Bromirez Rock on brother!
did you sell it yet?
Keep in mind that the only factor isn't drop chance. It's also how many times you can get a chance at the drop. Yes, Bindings of the Windseeker has a "high" drop chance, but remember that you can only attempt that drop chance AT MOST once every 7 days. You need take that into account.
Also, about the Zul'Farrak pants, it's not 0.02% chance. 2 chances at 0.01% doesn't double the chances. Two chances at 50% doesn't mean 100%.
God damn don u know how to add maths. .01+.01=.02 pleb
@@EvlEgle please bro … Don't talk when you stop school at 12 years … if an item which could be drop on 2 mob with 50% drop chance Don't mean 150% chance to get it … but 75% … to get a 100 % chance, the item need to to be dropped with 100% chance from one of theses mobs
@@keanureeves9726 pLeAsE bRo... DoN't TaLk wHeN yOu DoN't eVeN kNoW hOw to ... eNgLisH... I ... M... E...A...N...I...T...
@@keanureeves9726 Also, r/woosh.
@@EvlEgle so gay
1:54 actually statistics doesnt work like that. 0.02% chance of dropping is 99.98% chance of not dropping, 1 - 0.9998^30 = 0.6% chance of dropping 1 or more of these.
Actually, your statistics in this video is so off the bar wrong... I just.. I don't even.... I'm crying.
@@allnamesaretakenb4 he literally just spouts incorrect bullshit in every video hes a clickbait youtuber
@@aslushymachine You are the one getting confused , his statistics were on point, you just didn't comprehend them, and the reason he did it in the first place was useless.
He took the total 0.2% dungeon chance, and spread it across the total amount of mobs in the dungeon (he did this to compare it to the other dungeon, with the axe)
0.2 / 300
i enjoy the video for the item list and explanation of what they are, but i dislike the gambler's fallacy style of math. killing multiple mobs doesn't increase the % chance of an item dropping, i just gives you more chances against that % roll. ie - killing the two bosses with a .01% chance to drop does not make the chance .02%. it makes it so that you roll 2 different times against .01%. if it worked with the math presented in video, after 10,000 kills you'd be guaranteed to drop and keep on dropping with each kill thereafter
lol I was actually going to write the same. The Chance is 0.0198 actually for two repititions and is increasing but never reaching 100% with more repititions if calculated correctly.
Nothin compares to getting mvp cards in ragnarok online. 0.01% drop chance from world boss that spawn every 8 hours
bRUH
You didn't include the rarest item in WoW's history. Baron Rivendares Deathcharger pre drop chance buff. It was 0.02% chance to drop, and theres 4 other people that wanted it too. I actually solo farmed for this mount in TBC and eventually got it. You could do a run in around 20 min, and Rivendare did hit hard even as a level 70. Then they buffed the dropchance to a 1-2% chance later. I think it was the patch that introduced achievements.
You should rename yourself “faulty”, because that’s what your math is
lmfao... those pants dropped in ZF the other day and the only person that could use it got loot locked somehow. They were not happy. I had no idea that these were that rare...
Happy New Year,
Your channel is the best!!!
Don't forget the legendary necklace that drops on Ragna!
Played WoW for almost 20 years, and a Teebu's dropped last week in UBRS. First time I've ever seen it.
I got that axe the 2nd week of classic wow... I equipped it.. and used it to level on my warrior from lvl 41 to 56..
I once got the Blade of Hanna as an orc hunter in ZG. Back then, oh, about 20 years ago, it had +11 stats on everything. The weapon had real style; I didn't see anyone else with that weapon back then.
I've got those trousers. I never realised they were rare.
I got them during vanilla, we did multiple runs to get the carrot on a stick and they dropped at some point. Notice how I managed to not say "the trousers dropped". Sorry about the schoolboy humor but it was just glaring for that.
Same here i got them
@@vandammed159 I got three of those on one run, never realised there were that rare.
Amin Klungseth i got 34 in one run, i thought thats a common drop.
I won the greed roll for pendulum of doom on my rogue, sold for a pretty penny, I was excited about it for over a month lol
I did about 20000 runs to get pendulum of Doom on Frostmourne I was one of the only people on the server with it and everyone just bows down lol
I did nearl 250.000 runs and now everybody is kissing my feet.
Old School RuneScape players are laughing at this
4k mole, no pet...someday
Those pants kind of look like some pants you's see on a bull fighter in Mexico. Lol.
I have this on my mage. Currently in Classic WoW. Wearing them.
Want a fucking trophy pal?
Ok boomer
Vetle Nedenes
Definitely younger than a baby boomer
Toguro
Why is everyone so toxic online? I just watched this video. And I’m simply stating I have those leggings. That’s it. I’m not special. I just happened to get them.
@@Jive33 You just want attention bruh, admit it
I'd say Baron's Mount is the rarest item there is. You gotta clear an entire dungeon for a 0.02 chance of dropping it.
its a 2% chance to drop off Baron, not .02. But yes, even then, I think its still more rare.
@@lockekappa500 I can assure you, it's definitely NOT 2%.
@@lukaskock95 Wowhead disagrees classic.wowhead.com/npc=12056/baron-geddon
@@lockekappa500 dude theyre talking about baron rivendare
@@ranciusclay Oh Im dumb, I saw baron and jumped to conclusions
What about Deathcharger's Reins from Strat UD? This has only 0,04%, but is even way harder to acquire due to the fact that it is only droping from the endboss of an endgame dungeon
That and you are competing with everyone else in the group which means that you have 1/5th chance of the actual drop rate.
where do you got that 0.04% from? i think it's 0.02%
@@EdShrekan Wowhead
thanks, there was a blizzard patch notice though that the droprate was increased from 0.02% to something (in retail)
It's 2%...
Basically how RuneScape drop tables on some very rare drops xD
This video gave my maths teacher cancer
It gave me racism
Items that have a 2-5% drop chance are rare for me. Like 90% of the items in the game...
*Laughs in Invincible*
Invincible is not an ultra rare drop.
@@XBorlaugX dude it's just a joke
Isn't that the clear horse from lick king
OMG I had those pants back in the day - I absolutely hated the way they looked. For a while I had a vest instead of a robe and my male toon looked like a clown. I could not wait to upgrade them.
Got miners hat during legion and sold it for 2milions
i found this item, but the green leggings version. like a lvl 55 or 56 pair of pants and it had 50 plus healing on it. but the pants design was the same sold it for 25 gold for the healing specifically though
I have them on Cata Classic as a transmog option. Didn’t realize they were rare lol. I spent 200g for em I think. I use them for transmog once in a while. 🤷♂️
Are you on Gandling?
HEY !!! that's meeee ... The shaman in the video with Hand of Ragnaros :-P
No it's me :)
lol, Iv been watching for this on AH as its on my BIS list. I guess that explains why I haven't seen it for sell.
Nor will you ever see it for sell.
You might see it for sale however
Is dark moon fishing cap worth anything. Isn't it rare?
I swear Vaulty is GradeAUnderA after calming down
Except you leave out the reset areas in the zombie spot where u can basically run through right to the boss location
I DIDNT EVEN PICK THAT UP MANY MANY YEARS AGO, WDFFFFF
0.01% chance
"laughs in ragnarock online "
the jackhammer is so rare this guy doesnt even know it exists (another drop from uldaman, even more rare than pendulum)
Don't chances remain the same regardless of how many mobs you kill? I mean, it could happen on your first try or maybe in 10,000 kills.
Ofc, thats why he said that ON AVERAGE you would have to kill X amount of mobs. Not if you kill X amount of mobs you get it.
What about Miner's helm of the deep?
Tofu PlattergO tO rEt A iL
@@kkarall5060 go to retail
@@strangedevice2547 go get a girlfriend loser
How much does an antipodean rod cost atm and should I sell it ASAP? I got it off a skeleton a week ago
Under 5g
lol these are rookie numbers Runescape has 1/8192 drop chances on certain items from monsters. It's even higher when you are talking about the rare drop table.
I wonder if anybody looted it and didn't know about their rarity and then sold it as a soulbound to an Outland vendor.
that's just absolutely ridiculous that they made items that rare
Finally someone said this...cant believe...
Magefist gloves is also a reference to a Diablo 2 item. :)
“Funderfury”
4:33 your math is wrong. It's multiplication, not division.
did you do work for dragon age origins?
That plate leg is just only 5k in Barthilas now LoL
Your calculations are wrong. If you have twice a 0.01% chance of getting something, then you have 0.019999% chance of getting it in a run. Also, if you want to distribute the 0.02% chance along 300 occurrences, that would mean 0.0000666733119936147% per mob and 1499850 average mob slaughters (or 0.0000666699779938718% per mob and 1499925 average mob slaughters if you consider the more exact 0.019999%)
You calculated the drop chance wrong, a 0.01% on 2 characters is not a 0.02% chance and you don't have a 100% drop chance after 5000 Runs.
if you actually do the calculation you would have a 90% chance to see these leggings drop after 11000 Runs
And a 99% chance after 23000 tries but even then out of 100 players there might still be that 1 person would not have gotten these leggings even after running the dungeon 23000 times, and that is only to see this item drop, the chance of then winning the roll vs potential 4 other players is a completely different beast.
High droprates compared to Diablo 2. Rarest item in wow history is Talisman of Binding Shard, only one ever existed.
It's not rare it's unique
I lost a roll on these. I was a Mage and lost a roll to Priest iirc. Feels bad man.
bro take one stats course. this isn't how math works.
miners hat of the deep, farmed it for 3 years back in the day when wow was new, all to make a dorf miner outfit lol.
I sold it for 3 gold 😢
Vaulty, I think the Gnomish Turban of Psychic Might might be in the top 3.
Shadowfang, twink sword is extremely rare.
erm i just dropped spellshock leggins in ZF, doing some tmog farming. cant find any info on them on wowhead nor none listed on ravencrest AH. can anyone tell me if these are still as rare as they were in the past?
I hade thunderfury on my warlock, lol. Just to piss warriors off.
the rarest item in wow is the tailisment of the binding shard a legendary neck piece that only dropped once by mistake. only one person has it and it wont drop again blizzard took it off the loot table as they put it on by mistake. and the guy/guild that had it drop got to keep it. plus its the only neck piece that shows visually on your character
even if you kill two bosses its still a 0.1% chance because its now 0.2 out of 2000 chance which is 0.1%
The armchair math in this video is really hard to bear.
dont know if stupid or trolling... ofc he knows that, but before you kill the boss a single time, you can calculate the odds of getting it after 2 tries which is approximately 0.2% or 0.02% depending on which example.
@@XBorlaugX i have no clue
2:39 I hate that shield :-D and i still have it on my shaman. Now I am farming AV reputation for off-hand
“Dwop”
So sad Ironfoe was not mentioned :(
what about blade of eternal darkness :)
still like 2% droprate.
3:42 0.01% X 2 = 0.02% ..... Good math :P
yea, the math isn't completely right there =)
But the numbers are so small, that it wouldn't really matter in this case.
so instead of 0.02% it's actually 0.019999%
I don't get it.
Teach me the way of the math, please.
@@cortynnightshade Well if we do the same thing with a die, and the chance of rolling a 6 is 1/6 - then if you roll it 6 times it doesn't add up to 6/6 (100%).
So what we have to do is take the inverse probability (not rolling 6) instead, which in the case of the die would be 5/6 (83.3%).
Then we roll the die 6 times which equals (5/6)^6 ( = about 33.48%). This would give us the probability of not rolling a "6", 6 times in a row.
So if we want to roll at least a 6 with 6 throws, we subtract those 33.48% from 100% which gives us 66.52%.
Same goes for this calculation in the video. If the chance is 0.01% of getting the item, then the chance of not getting the item is 99.99%.
Then we have 2 tries of not getting the item, which gives us 99.99%^2 (which equals 99.980001%).
We subtract that from 100% which gives us 0.019999%.
I hope you were sincerely curious about it.
What about the heavenly onyx cloud serpent? Only 1% of all wow accounts have it, and you can't even buy it, unlike the pants shown in this video.
On sale on mirage raceway Cata classic, 45k is the cheapest lol
Bow of searing arrows is quite rare
In the sense that it's 0.025% chance to drop sure.
But it does drop from dozens of different mobs, across multiple zones & dungeons, in the 40-46ish range
Just a small and rather pedantic correction: The Leggings are not at all a 0,02% combined from Zul'Farak just because they drop in two bosses. They are still 0,01%. Think of it in bigger percentages. If each boss had a 50% chance of obtaining the leggings and there were two, it would be statistically silly to say you have a 100% chance of obtaining it, because you don't. Statistics don't add up, they are isolated instances -- if you don't get the drop in the first 50% chance, your chances on the second are not statistically increased. Therefore, even if 5 individual mobs had a 0,01% chance of dropping the item, it would still be a 0,01% chance to drop overall per run. The human brain isn't very good at handling things like odds and chances (which is why it's so easy to dupe people with gambling), but it's true. :P
Again unsure if trolling, ignorant or stupid. If the dung has 2 bosses with a 0.01% drop chance then the chance of getting during a single run would be 0.01999%, which he rounded up to 0.02% to make it simpler. The amount of /r/iamverysmart in this comment section is insane.
Gambler's fallacy doesn't apply to basic calculation of probabilities of something occurring. This is perfectly reasonable and done regularly. When done properly, it's the expected outcome, there are deviations which, once again, when done properly, will be accounted for.
Gambler's fallacy occurs when the person in the act begins to think previous results affect the next. If 10 coins are flipped, and all land on heads, if that person starts to think the next is more likely to be tails because all the rest were heads, then he's falling prey to the gambler's fallacy.
Gambler's fallacy does not occur if a person says "well it'd sure be pretty damn unlikely to flip heads 10,000 times in a row", which is essentially the kind of thing you're doing when you're doing basic odds of occurrence ^ attempts at occurrence maths.
The ironic thing about the fallacy I think, is how often people misuse it.
EDIT: Worded another way, and simpler: The chance of somebody flipping heads 10,000 times in a row is astronomically low. The chance of somebody flipping heads a 10,000th time after flipping it 9,999 times is still 50/50. Gambler's Fallacy is invoked when the latter isn't believed, not when the former is believed.
I got the jackhammer from Uldaman its rare tho right ?
my dumbass sold that to an npc in cataclysm
Good, but why the clickbait thumbnail, please explain...
Can't it be a normal thumbnail?
4:28 what the actual fuck is that crystal math
That's not how probability works.
teebu dropped on my server my guild in alliance thalnos selling it for 5-10k
Pendulum of Doom is not worth it if you are a Shaman. Just a little heads up. I had that weapon. it was so trash i vendered it. Just so you know. 4 seconds in PvP is a LONG time. You never hit anyone even with Windfury on it. I am not joking. Its a trash item for Shaman. Maybe if stormstrike worked on it better it would say good. No. its trash.
theres one on fairbanks for 3k gold hordeside
math teachers rolling their graves
Fu .. i had the pants from zf and vendored them because i am a rogue ... had no ideea they were so rare ...
Blizzard lets you restore items you vendor on accident. I was able to get an old item I vedored ten years ago.
Your first mistake was vendoring a blue BOE lolwut
@@lanarober8952 no man , is just one month , not years … and I know it only works on retail …
It depends on the item. For me it was a starting quest in Silvermoon that gives a sword with a unique appearance. I vendored it years prior to transmog implementation. Then after they rolled out Item Restoral, I saw it was my chance and I put a ticket in and they gave it back to me. They don't specify a time, but the longer it has been the less likely they can help. In my case it was obvious I completed the quest and it was missing from my collected appearances so that helped I'm sure. If it has been recent for you it can't hurt to put a ticket in. But restored items CANNOT be traded so if you want it to sell then you're out of luck.
@@georgegeorge8960 what do you mean by 'retail?'
Bindings are 3% each....
Tusks of mannoroth.
im on t he way over
Please read up on how probability works... If there are 10 mobs and each has 0.01 percent chance to drop an item, that does not mean that on a run you have a 0.1 percent chance of dropping something. By comparison, if you have 10 mobs with 10 percent chance, that does not mean that after killing these 10 mobs you have a 100 percent chance of dropping something. Please do not confuse people and do not spread bad math information, thanks!
Another comment section math hero with 0 clue, OF COURSE HE KNOWS ITS NOT 100% IF YOU RUN IT ENOUGH. you calculate probability by multiplying the contrary odds, i.e if 10 mobs have a 10% chance it wouldnt be 100%, it would be: (9/10)^10=0.35, 100-35= 65% chance. HOWEVER with numbers as small as 0.01% it REALLY doesnt matter in small samples, for example if 2 mobs have a 0.01% dropchance in a run, it wouldnt be 0.02% but 0.01999% however its way simpler to round up. Stop lecturing people about shit you are clueless about, you're gonna end up on /r/iamverysmart or some shit.
@@XBorlaugX Oh really genius? Then maybe watch the video you are commenting on. For example, he says that an item in Uldaman has 0.02% probability of dropping and approximately 15 to 20 mobs drop it in Uldaman only, so for the whole run you have 0.3% probability (0.02*15=0.3).
I had those spellshocks drop but I passed it cause I never cared btw, this was my first run :\
You need to take a course on probability and statistics... That's not how probability works...
It should be odd for females too, if it's odd for males.
I don't sed how one would be acceptable if the other isn't, since, in the reverse, if something is acceptable for males it must be considered acceptable for females. Even if it makes little sense, because it's a point of principle. There are obvious exceptions to this, but they are few and far between.
This is nothing compared to gacha droprates
Fresh vid
...GIVES...
Spellshock leggings? I remember these when I started playing at WoTLK. I was wondering why the random players I was dungeoning with were pissed off with me? I was a warrior but they looked nice in preview so I also needed and got them...I feel bad now, and violated? I sold think I sold them for very cheap.
Thunder furwey.
And there thTs insane
Spends years running Zul Farak 5000 times and gets the pants
*Makes character look like a gay dude*