Dont you just love when you start a series and the next part is uploaded a few days after you started it, and didn't have to wait as long as the rest of the poor scrubs? Love it.
The flirty fishing part reminds me of when I was talking with this old scientologist and I asked him how he converted. He said his female co-worker asked him out on a date, during which they ran into a man she knew. His date and this man had a big long conversation about life, their goals and sprituality while he just sat there. The stranger eventually left and he asked "What was that?" She replied "That? That was Scientology..." The old guy told the story as if it was super profound, but I'm 99% sure he was honeypotted
I'm so happy you talked about the Palais Idéal! :D It's such a genuinely moving and wholesome story and the thing itself was a huge inspiration to the Surrealists, who are my favourite modern art movement.
As someone from the area, something to add about Mary the elephant is that during the hanging, the rope broke. She fell, broke her hip, and they had to raise her again.
The best way I've ever heard the Monty Hall problem explained, which got me to actually finally understand, is that you're secretly playing two different games. Game 1: Pick a door without learning the outcome. Game 2: Guess whether or not you won game 1. Because you had a 1/3 chance of winning game 1, there's a 2/3 chance that you lost. By switching doors, you're saying "it's more likely that I lost." Opening one of the losing doors in between doesn't change the math because game 1 is already over, it's just a psychological trick. Before I heard it this way, I couldn't really wrap my head around it. Like, I knew "the probability doesn't change" but I couldn't explain why. For whatever reason, framing it that way was like "ohhhhhh I GET it now"
That ("2 games, second game is guessing whether you won or not") is a great explanation of the "solution" often proposed to the monty hall problem! But the monty hall problem itself can also have the host reveal the car and not only goats, so for the same reason the "solution" is incorrect the explanation is also somewhat incorrect.
@@feha92 The question isn't what are your chance of winning the car at the start of the game, given all possible outcomes (assuming Monty can open the door with a car). The question is "In the scenario where Monty reveals a goat, what are your chances of winning the car if you switch doors?" If he reveals a car, you just lose. But that's not what's being asked.
The Monty hall problem is so weird but with the 100 doors it is easier to visualize. You have a 99/100 chance to pick a door with a goat behind it, and after that you can open one more door. Either your door or the one thats left has the car. Since it's so unlikely you will get the car your first guess, it makes sense that switching to the other one will give you a better chance of winning. It still pisses me off though
It really doesn't though, say you initially pick one out of one hundred you have a 1 in 100 chance of being right, and then good ol' Monty removes 98 doors, well if you switch your choice now it's one out of 2 right? Technically yes, but so is your initial pick, your pick is now also 1 in 2, because there are 2 doors it could be now, and your door is one of them. Even if you made the choice when there were more doors it doesn't matter. The alternate way to think of it is imagine those 98 choices were never there and he just presented two doors and asked you to choose. Same way for three. If you picked one and have a third chance of being right. and then he opens another one and asks you to switch, it isn't a 1 in 3 vs a 1 in 2. It's a 1 in 2 vs a 1 in 2. It's the exact same odds. Probabilities are just deceptively weird. The part of it that makes people think it's better odds is that he knows where the goats are and where the car is. So if he leaves one out if you picked wrong then the one he kept has the car. But to probability it doesn't matter, every single door has equal odds of having the car, so when he closes 98, then your chances are now 1 in 2. The only reason that switching would be better is if you could cold read the host. Because the Monty Hall problem is just a cold reading starter pack.
Ngl, I was smitten and “in love” immediately after my maths teacher introduced me to this problem. I find one way to understand why it still stays as a 1/3 chance instead of becoming a 1/2 chance after the door is opened is because you are already in the scenario. It’s a 1/2 chance if you only had 2 doors to begin with. My teacher would explain it this way. Say you pick door one, there’s a 1/3 chance you picked correctly, and 2/3 chance you picked wrong. Opening one of the doors does not increase your chances, it just gives you additional information. The 2/3 probability of you picking wrong on your first pick still stays the same. Personally, I think it’s easier to understand when visualised. When I explain the problem I draw a “wall” between the door you first picked and the other two doors. In my opinion it helps to see the other two doors united against the one you picked. 🚪 vs. 🚪🚪 1/3 vs. 2/3 You can also try to switch the perspective. Instead of 1/3 chance of picking a car, think about having a 2/3 chance of picking a goat. After opening one of the doors there’s only 1/3 chance of getting a goat after you switch. I know my explanations can be confusing to read but I hope it helped to get some perspective to understand the logic behind it. It also helps to actually do it with a friend. I did it, and most of the time switching would be the winning choice. When I did it friends I had three mugs or boxes. 2 would be empty and 1 would have an item in it. You can also try just having 3 pieces of paper and write the items on them, placing them on the table facing down. A lot of things are understood better after physically doing them yourself, try it and keep track of your results.
@@truth12121 The 100 door extrapolation serves to show the uneven probability comes from your first choice, because it determines what reward the host must leave behind the unopened door: in 99 out of 100 times you will have first picked a goat, and the remaining door will have a car, in 1 out of 100 times you will have picked the car and the remaining door have a goat. So 99 out of 100 times switching is the best option. Switching being the wrong choice has the same probability of picking the car first try, 1/100, because switching is the wrong choice only if you picked the car first try. The chance of picking the car first try is not 1 in 2, because of the extra 98 goats. Back to the 3 door scenario, in 1 out of 3 times you will pick the car first so switching will get you a goat, in 2 out of 3 times you will have picked a goat first and the switch will get you a car.
The Monty Hall problem is easier to understand if you notice that the host will never open the door with the car, so considering all possible scenarios, there a two losing conditions that are not possible to pick. Briefly: The host will NEVER open the door with the car behind and ask if you want to switch goat 1 to goat 2 or vice-versa.
Probabilities are based on what you know. When the host opens the doors, he gives you new information, so you now know more and can estimate the probabilities better. If the host opened all the doors, showed whats in them, then closed them and asked if you want to change, the probabilities of your choice will be different. The Monty haul problem is equivalent to the host asking you to pick a door, and then asking if you want to keep your guess or choose to open all the other doors instead. This is only equivalent because the host knows where the car is are so he can dress up "picking all the other doors" as "opening all the doors but one and asking you to open the last one" by checking where all the extra goats are.
@@feha92 the premise of the problem is "the host opens a door and reveals a goat". The host isn't choosing at random, he knows what is behind each door.
Your explanation of the Monty Hall Problem shows me that my lifelong habit of doubting and second-guessing myself will , eventually, lead me to success. Thanks, Jeffiot!
I think the reason people expect the Monty Hall problem to be a 50/50 is because they don't account for the fact that the door opened will never have the prize nor be the one you picked. When you realize this it becomes a lot more obvious why it is not 50/50.
Yeah, if you think about it from the perspective of the show runner. They always have to remove one of the wrong options. 2 out of 3 times, the one they remove will be a wrong door as they can never remove the right door.
If you change the wording to: "You pick a door at random, then you have to bet whether you picked right first time" It becomes easier to think about. It's exactly the same thing
Another reason, I think, is that people don't realise that the goats are not literally the same. Meaning that there are three outcomes, not two: you win the car, you win goat A, or you win goat B.
Hey, Jeffiot! The Centennial Light is reminding me, you should look at 17776 or What Football Will Look Like In The Future because its one of the most interesting and thought provoking pieces of fiction I've interacted with
When he mentioned the lightbulb I immediately thought of 17776. I remember crying a little reading that chapter. I felt such a deep and sudden emptiness. I ended up reading the entire thing over the course of several hours one afternoon early in the summer. I had heard it mentioned before and had been like that sounds interesting but I know nothing about football so idk if it would be boring or confusing for me but I was watching Jacob Geller’s video called ‘cities without people’ I think about Microsoft flight simulator (which I highly recommend) and he used a two short passages from 17776 and I felt so drawn to it that I opened up a new tab, started reading it, and couldn’t stop. I feel jealous of anyone who is lucky enough to have that experience of reading it for the first time. In my opinion the best use of the internet in storytelling I have ever seen.
Adding on - was so excited to see the centennial light bulb here BECAUSE of its appearance in 17776. I read the whole thing in a fever one summer day and it's legit one of the most innovative pieces of fiction I've seen. Worth the time
As someone who has been following your channel for over a year now, I'm so happy to see you getting the recognition you deserve for your stuff! It was criminal to see the ratio of effort to views your channel was getting when I first joined. Good job!!
Jeffiot, du är ett så förtjusande inslag i min youtuberepertoar att jag får en lite lättare stuns i stegen resten av dagen varje gång jag snubblar över dig. Tack från en/din mamma.
Found this channel a couple days ago bc of skull trumpet. Watched the Wikipedia icebergs and was surprised about part 3 not being out. Now it's here. Amazing!
I've heard the Monty Hall problem like a million times and never understood why you would switch. Your explanation made it so much easier for me to understand!
The Skull Trumpet video may have helped me find you, but every video you've made is a banger, and whatever you make in the future probably will be too, no matter the genre. I'd say keep it up but I doubt anyone could stop you already.
“Funnily” enough, bobs burgers, did an episode on Topsy, also side note, ever since the jazzy skeleton video I’ve been watching your videos, each one very well made and cures my boredom instantly, keep up the good work man!! :D
Ferdinand Cheval was fascinating, i cant believe i hadn't heard of him after watching so many of these! Insane that he managed to build so much on his own!
Really easy no-nonsense way to explain the Monty Hall problem: switching turns a wrong choice into a right choice, and a right choice into a wrong choice. You were more likely to pick wrong at first, so it's better to switch.
I would agree, except that he blundered with the 100 door example. Switching does not change your changes from 1/100 to 1/2, it actually gives you a 99/100 chance. An incredible difference!
Finished part 2 just 2 days ago and was sad part 3 wasn't done... very happy it's here! Been loving binging your content while I paint minis, keep up the awesome work!
As a French woman I had NEVER heard of that last story!! 😭 it is a beautiful story and you told so well too, you are extremely talented❤️ can't wait to binge on your other vids!
Hell yeah, more Jeffiot for my eyes and ears and brain to soak up and think about constantly. I was running out of random quotes you said to have to hide my laughter at when I remember them suddenly.
I've been hooked on your videos ever since the jazz skeleton one and it's been so great to see you gain so many subscribers. I would watch 1 video and you're at 80k, then the next day I watch another and suddenly it's 85k. Love it. Keep up the work.
Well I certainly didn’t expect to see Unst. My dad lives on the island and I’ve been a few times myself. There’s usually an honesty box there full of really tasty cakes, but my dad has said they they’ve started removing it for the islands annual festival (Unst Fest) because tourists just kept taking them. Beautiful part of the world, and a lot more to see than just a bus stop, just up the road is a full Viking longship replica, a gin distillery and shortly they’re planning to launch space rockets just a bit further up.
Hi, someone from Argentina here! Cachy (at 34:23) would probably be pronounced "ca-chee", kinda like the word "catchy". Love your videos man, keep at it!
I knew the answer to the Monty Hall Problem. But your first explanation solidified my understanding of the logic. And the example with 100 doors made it intuitively obvious.
PART 3 WOOOO I found your channel a few days ago as well (like many others it seems!) through I think the final destination video. I've been making my way through all your other videos since, your humor is right up my alley and I how you edit and present your videos is a delight. I'm glad I found your channel and can't wait to watch what you've got coming next!
I'm happy I find more and more creators that covers media I like watching that are also from my own country. Feels really nice and I think that so far this is my favourite. Happy more Swedish people other than Felix gets more recognition. It has also made my day finding people in my country making things I love so much brighter for me since a lot of the creators I grew up with are quitting at the moment. Thank you Jeff.
14:05 The wattage of a lightbulb doesn't necessarily have anything to do with it's brightness. Wattage measures how much power the bulb draws per hour. The brightness of a bulb is measured in Lumens.
Found this channel a while ago when it had just a few thousand subscribers and now you're past 100k and releasing a part I've been waiting a while for This is just genuinely really awesome to see I wish you the best of luck!
Ok so the monty hall problem basiccally works like this: so, if you pick one door it gives you a 1/3 chance of that door being a car and the other doors carry a 2/3 chance. When the other door is revealed to not have the car then the door that you didn't pick also carrys the 2/3 chance. Anyways, keep it up Jeffiot, love your content!
no then it becomes a 1/2 chance. scenario 1 and scenario 3 are the the exact same thing. it doesnt matter if you pick goat A or B you choose a door and one goat gets revealed, then you can either switch or keep your choice. its 50/50
Got recommended an old video of yours loved it, came to check you’re channel can’t tell you how glad I am you’re still uploading keep kicking ass dude all the best to ya
I've just finished doing a masters in physics and honestly that's actually a pretty good explanation of the Monty Hall problem, at least as it is commonly stated (and as it's stated here in this video) although ironically it pains me to point out that in the 100 door example, the chance of winning if you switch is actually 99 in 100, not 1 in 2! It's a very easy mistake to make though, which is kind of the whole thing with it; on its surface, the "intuitive" solution is absolutely that it's a 1/2 chance if you switch. However! As you pointed out in the 3-door case, you already know that some doors are eliminated. A simple check is whether your two options (keep your door vs switch your door choice) add up to a 100% chance of finding the prize, as you *have* to find the prize if you open both doors :) It's also a really crucial part of the story IMHO (particularly as a woman in STEM myself) that there was a _loooot_ of misogyny involved in people (largely male scientists/mathematicians) trying to tell the original author (who was a woman, Marilyn vos Savant) of the article which made the problem famous that she was wrong and obviously didn't know anything about statistics. There's some nuanced argument to be made about exactly how the problem is presented/formulated, but a huge amount of the backlash and disagreement to the original argument was just... dudes who got butthurt about the fact a woman said something which flew in the way of their immediate gut instinct about a problem :P
I love the “yeah I was going viral you’re probably here because of the doot doot video” meanwhile the algorithm decided fuck that noise, watch the Final Destination one and we are never gonna show you the skeleton gif one until you get hella into these and watch it yourself
Holy fucking shit, I had no idea that The Family is the same as Children of God. I dated someone in college for a couple years who ran away from that cult after an arranged marriage at 16. There's soooo many fucked up things she told me about that cult, and everything you said aboit them is 100% true. One of the things that really stuck out to me that she told me was that all of the "elders" in the church where she lived were all missing half of their pinky or ring finger
@@kinexkid I was joking, the implied meaning of missing half of any finger would be they lack a finger from the second knuckle on. My joke subverted this by instead implying that it was a specific side of the finger. Similar to when an angry guy says "he has half my dick" and the person he's talking to says "right or left?" It's so confusing that it's funny to any outside observer.
Jeff God please give us a lost episode please. I was to young to watch it when it first came out and now I'm obsessed with it but everyone's over that shit already. Maybe you could talk about the lost args? I feel like hardly anyone has touched on those
Hey Jeff, just wanted to let you know that, yes, like many people, the skull trumpet video brought me to your channel but the homour and style of your other videos just as this series, the ghost hunting video, the feet in the sea, lighting roy, farts and the david firth socks review made me subscribe. I've been surfing round yt for a long time and I've never stop on a channel and just binged like i have yours. Just finished 'Moustache', it gave me chills! Keep up the good work!
btw there's a guy called hugbees who made a whole series of videos about unusual deaths and a whole video just about seaman john cummings, they're a pretty good youtuber all around apart from their semi-toxic patriotism.
Now way he hitting the griddy, so glad i found your channel through funny trumpet meme, and have totally not binged watched all your videos (man your The Mustache video was so good)
It's about time! I've been waiting for this anxiously, ever since I discovered your channel and watched the other two icebergs among other videos this week.
Ever since i found your channel I've been eagerly awaiting your next uploads, your energy is very welcoming and for lack of a better word, I'll just go with "chill". I think the passion you put into your videos really shows. I love the style. I finished watching all your videos one after the other to get caught up on your current available content and I've not been disappointed, I'd go as far as to call you a comfort channel. Also I've been listening to u.n.p.o.c. since I started watching you and it really hits that spot deep inside, hard to explain but it speaks to you, it's like a comforting hug or just a little voice speaking to you to tell you you're not alone (Ironic since they have that song "Here On My Own"), but it really does.
Maybe the best part of those 3 iceberg videos were the "subscribe" segments. Like holy shit, man... I discovered your channel just a couple days ago and I can only thank the UA-cam algorithm, because it's one of the best things I've seen on here in a while. Your editing is top tier, I love how much creativity you pour into each video, and you're really fucking funny. I'm excited to see what you make next. Cheers!
I actually discovered you through the Final Destination video a few weeks ago, and very conveniently I watched the 2 Iceberg videos last week, so this was fortunate timing for me to discover your channel. I'm really happy to hear the algorithm finally did you a favour, because so far everything I've seen of yours has been great content, long may it continue and congratulations on going viral!
Literally found your channel, and was interested enough to go back to the other parts of the iceberg, and I am in love with your style and “process”. And the “Germanic” style of humor (not sure of your exact nationality, but my barbarian American eats just go ‘ah, a German’ but for all I know, you could be anywhere from Austria to Samiland.) is such a breath of fresh air.
After the trumpet skull video I started watching your videos and honestly I believe you will get your channel verified very very soon. Your content is interesting and has its own style of editing that has a lot of charm. Wish you all the best with your UA-cam career :)
So glad i found your channel. the tangents,the theories and humour -love it. I just hope the videos get longer as you explore more things you want to talk about. Please keep going because people are noticing, you will get a mill subs in no time. Just enjoy the making of videos dont feel you need to do popular things all the time. I would love to hear your take on other phenomenas (mandela effect for example and if you guys in sweden have your own list of them?). But yeah.. I love these videos your scp essays, the final destination video, the doot... Your channel is such a gem. Keep going! 😊
I found you 2 days ago from this very iceberg. I thought I'd have to wait for a bit for a new episode, but then I see it now and I feel that I'm lucky!
I've been binge watching your channel for a week or so after finding it through the jazz skull video and I am so stoked to see the Wikipedia iceberg part 3! Also you finally FINALLY made me understand the Monty Hall problem, so thanks!!
wow an iceberg of wikipedias? now that's what I call "a gaming!"
... What??
yup! another proletarian classic
i love geoff youtube and his very cool videos it is very "cool beans indeed" . live laugh loaf
'
jeffidiot gaming ?
Let's GOOOO
Thats what i'm thinkin'
TOMSKA? On a jeffiot video that’s so cool
Yessss! This man knows a criminally underrated channel when he sees one!
Tomska, I would like to inform you that you are my favorite British person
ayyy love seeing you in comment sections xD
Dont you just love when you start a series and the next part is uploaded a few days after you started it, and didn't have to wait as long as the rest of the poor scrubs? Love it.
Or you're playing the first one and realize the third was uploaded just a few hours before 😊😊😊☘️
Well, you still have to wait for the last part just as long as the others now ;>
I literally found this guy and watched all 3 videos in a row, all within 2 hours.
Finally we don’t have to leave off the iceberg on boy eggs
This caused me to remember about boy eggs and take psychic damage
@@TheHopperUK It was super effective!
...*Shudders*
*virgin* boy eggs. gotta check the label to make sure you aren't getting an inferior product, y'know
@@hellomistershiftyalso check that they're 100% virgin. Don't want any of that holding hands at recess on the playground B.S.
found this channel 2 days ago through the final destination video and been binge watching. Part 3 dropping right now is such a treat....
Yoooo same
SAME
Same
Me tooo
I discovered him like a week or 2 ago from his Skull Trumpet vid
The flirty fishing part reminds me of when I was talking with this old scientologist and I asked him how he converted. He said his female co-worker asked him out on a date, during which they ran into a man she knew. His date and this man had a big long conversation about life, their goals and sprituality while he just sat there. The stranger eventually left and he asked "What was that?" She replied "That? That was Scientology..."
The old guy told the story as if it was super profound, but I'm 99% sure he was honeypotted
Geez, that's so insidious.
A guy I used to work with was homeless as a child, because the Scientology church convinced his dad to give them ALL of their money
I still don't actually know what tf Scientology is besides having the dumbest name I've ever heard and everyone saying "Scientology bad"
I literally found your channel a couple days ago and binged almost everything. You're fucking awesome dude.
Same!
Me too. Bahahaa. Glad we didn't have to wait nearly a year for this final update. 😂
And yeah, this dude is fucking hilarious!
Big truth. Big agree.
Same.
Same.
I'm so happy you talked about the Palais Idéal! :D It's such a genuinely moving and wholesome story and the thing itself was a huge inspiration to the Surrealists, who are my favourite modern art movement.
There is a similar single-man handcrafted castle not too far from where I live, called the Chateau LaRoche, its a wild story too!
As someone from the area, something to add about Mary the elephant is that during the hanging, the rope broke. She fell, broke her hip, and they had to raise her again.
😢
Omg nooo
“You just got flirty fished!!” is definitely something that’s entering my lexicon immediately.
Its quite funny to me that a gameshow host accidentally walked into such a controversial probability problem.
The best way I've ever heard the Monty Hall problem explained, which got me to actually finally understand, is that you're secretly playing two different games. Game 1: Pick a door without learning the outcome. Game 2: Guess whether or not you won game 1.
Because you had a 1/3 chance of winning game 1, there's a 2/3 chance that you lost. By switching doors, you're saying "it's more likely that I lost." Opening one of the losing doors in between doesn't change the math because game 1 is already over, it's just a psychological trick.
Before I heard it this way, I couldn't really wrap my head around it. Like, I knew "the probability doesn't change" but I couldn't explain why. For whatever reason, framing it that way was like "ohhhhhh I GET it now"
The probability does change though. Statistics by Jim does a good job of explaining why its hard to understand this happening.
That ("2 games, second game is guessing whether you won or not") is a great explanation of the "solution" often proposed to the monty hall problem!
But the monty hall problem itself can also have the host reveal the car and not only goats, so for the same reason the "solution" is incorrect the explanation is also somewhat incorrect.
@@functionatthejunction Then statistics by jim is wrong.
@@TheSeptet It is not.
@@feha92 The question isn't what are your chance of winning the car at the start of the game, given all possible outcomes (assuming Monty can open the door with a car). The question is "In the scenario where Monty reveals a goat, what are your chances of winning the car if you switch doors?"
If he reveals a car, you just lose. But that's not what's being asked.
I love the line "So Chevy did what Chevy does" and then just very casually saying he built a Mausoleum like it's something you were doing last week
The Monty hall problem is so weird but with the 100 doors it is easier to visualize. You have a 99/100 chance to pick a door with a goat behind it, and after that you can open one more door. Either your door or the one thats left has the car. Since it's so unlikely you will get the car your first guess, it makes sense that switching to the other one will give you a better chance of winning. It still pisses me off though
Please, don't give Jeff anymore doors content, I already can't fucking sleep 😂
Chance is the same, but the frame of reference is different. Thus, it's a trick of perspective, not an actual probability changing
It really doesn't though, say you initially pick one out of one hundred you have a 1 in 100 chance of being right, and then good ol' Monty removes 98 doors, well if you switch your choice now it's one out of 2 right? Technically yes, but so is your initial pick, your pick is now also 1 in 2, because there are 2 doors it could be now, and your door is one of them. Even if you made the choice when there were more doors it doesn't matter. The alternate way to think of it is imagine those 98 choices were never there and he just presented two doors and asked you to choose.
Same way for three. If you picked one and have a third chance of being right. and then he opens another one and asks you to switch, it isn't a 1 in 3 vs a 1 in 2. It's a 1 in 2 vs a 1 in 2.
It's the exact same odds. Probabilities are just deceptively weird.
The part of it that makes people think it's better odds is that he knows where the goats are and where the car is. So if he leaves one out if you picked wrong then the one he kept has the car. But to probability it doesn't matter, every single door has equal odds of having the car, so when he closes 98, then your chances are now 1 in 2.
The only reason that switching would be better is if you could cold read the host. Because the Monty Hall problem is just a cold reading starter pack.
Ngl, I was smitten and “in love” immediately after my maths teacher introduced me to this problem. I find one way to understand why it still stays as a 1/3 chance instead of becoming a 1/2 chance after the door is opened is because you are already in the scenario. It’s a 1/2 chance if you only had 2 doors to begin with.
My teacher would explain it this way. Say you pick door one, there’s a 1/3 chance you picked correctly, and 2/3 chance you picked wrong. Opening one of the doors does not increase your chances, it just gives you additional information. The 2/3 probability of you picking wrong on your first pick still stays the same.
Personally, I think it’s easier to understand when visualised. When I explain the problem I draw a “wall” between the door you first picked and the other two doors. In my opinion it helps to see the other two doors united against the one you picked.
🚪 vs. 🚪🚪
1/3 vs. 2/3
You can also try to switch the perspective. Instead of 1/3 chance of picking a car, think about having a 2/3 chance of picking a goat. After opening one of the doors there’s only 1/3 chance of getting a goat after you switch.
I know my explanations can be confusing to read but I hope it helped to get some perspective to understand the logic behind it. It also helps to actually do it with a friend. I did it, and most of the time switching would be the winning choice. When I did it friends I had three mugs or boxes. 2 would be empty and 1 would have an item in it. You can also try just having 3 pieces of paper and write the items on them, placing them on the table facing down. A lot of things are understood better after physically doing them yourself, try it and keep track of your results.
@@truth12121 The 100 door extrapolation serves to show the uneven probability comes from your first choice, because it determines what reward the host must leave behind the unopened door: in 99 out of 100 times you will have first picked a goat, and the remaining door will have a car, in 1 out of 100 times you will have picked the car and the remaining door have a goat. So 99 out of 100 times switching is the best option. Switching being the wrong choice has the same probability of picking the car first try, 1/100, because switching is the wrong choice only if you picked the car first try.
The chance of picking the car first try is not 1 in 2, because of the extra 98 goats.
Back to the 3 door scenario, in 1 out of 3 times you will pick the car first so switching will get you a goat, in 2 out of 3 times you will have picked a goat first and the switch will get you a car.
I love that your video style completely changes every video.
Also, Topsy’s death by electrocution was also promoted by thomas edison to show the dangers of alternating currents to discredit Tesla
Every time someone posts something new about Edison, he becomes more hateable
The Monty Hall problem is easier to understand if you notice that the host will never open the door with the car, so considering all possible scenarios, there a two losing conditions that are not possible to pick. Briefly: The host will NEVER open the door with the car behind and ask if you want to switch goat 1 to goat 2 or vice-versa.
yeah, i think this is a common reason some get confused by it, and during editing i regretted not touching on/elaborating on that.
Probabilities are based on what you know. When the host opens the doors, he gives you new information, so you now know more and can estimate the probabilities better. If the host opened all the doors, showed whats in them, then closed them and asked if you want to change, the probabilities of your choice will be different.
The Monty haul problem is equivalent to the host asking you to pick a door, and then asking if you want to keep your guess or choose to open all the other doors instead. This is only equivalent because the host knows where the car is are so he can dress up "picking all the other doors" as "opening all the doors but one and asking you to open the last one" by checking where all the extra goats are.
correction, the host will open a door with a car, a third of the time.
@@jeffiot gonna be earmarking that clarification for the Complete Iceberg video~
@@feha92 the premise of the problem is "the host opens a door and reveals a goat". The host isn't choosing at random, he knows what is behind each door.
Your explanation of the Monty Hall Problem shows me that my lifelong habit of doubting and second-guessing myself will , eventually, lead me to success. Thanks, Jeffiot!
This man is finally getting the recognition he deserves. I'm glad he spent the 6 hours it took to export this bad boy
Right?! Makes me so happy. 😊😊😊😊
I think the reason people expect the Monty Hall problem to be a 50/50 is because they don't account for the fact that the door opened will never have the prize nor be the one you picked. When you realize this it becomes a lot more obvious why it is not 50/50.
Yeah, if you think about it from the perspective of the show runner. They always have to remove one of the wrong options. 2 out of 3 times, the one they remove will be a wrong door as they can never remove the right door.
If you change the wording to: "You pick a door at random, then you have to bet whether you picked right first time"
It becomes easier to think about. It's exactly the same thing
Another reason, I think, is that people don't realise that the goats are not literally the same. Meaning that there are three outcomes, not two: you win the car, you win goat A, or you win goat B.
Hey, Jeffiot! The Centennial Light is reminding me, you should look at 17776 or What Football Will Look Like In The Future because its one of the most interesting and thought provoking pieces of fiction I've interacted with
Started bingeing this last night, very odd, but addicting. Thank you.
When he mentioned the lightbulb I immediately thought of 17776. I remember crying a little reading that chapter. I felt such a deep and sudden emptiness.
I ended up reading the entire thing over the course of several hours one afternoon early in the summer. I had heard it mentioned before and had been like that sounds interesting but I know nothing about football so idk if it would be boring or confusing for me but I was watching Jacob Geller’s video called ‘cities without people’ I think about Microsoft flight simulator (which I highly recommend) and he used a two short passages from 17776 and I felt so drawn to it that I opened up a new tab, started reading it, and couldn’t stop.
I feel jealous of anyone who is lucky enough to have that experience of reading it for the first time. In my opinion the best use of the internet in storytelling I have ever seen.
Adding on - was so excited to see the centennial light bulb here BECAUSE of its appearance in 17776. I read the whole thing in a fever one summer day and it's legit one of the most innovative pieces of fiction I've seen. Worth the time
As someone who has been following your channel for over a year now, I'm so happy to see you getting the recognition you deserve for your stuff! It was criminal to see the ratio of effort to views your channel was getting when I first joined. Good job!!
Jeffiot, du är ett så förtjusande inslag i min youtuberepertoar att jag får en lite lättare stuns i stegen resten av dagen varje gång jag snubblar över dig. Tack från en/din mamma.
-a/your mother..
I can't believe you finally got that out, I have been waiting since I joined yesterday.
Found this channel a couple days ago bc of skull trumpet. Watched the Wikipedia icebergs and was surprised about part 3 not being out. Now it's here. Amazing!
so so glad your channel is finally getting the attention it deserves! i can't wait to see you post your "i visited a scottish bus shelter" video
I've heard the Monty Hall problem like a million times and never understood why you would switch. Your explanation made it so much easier for me to understand!
1:49 Being weirdly obsessed with cults shouldn't be this relatable but oh boy it is for me.
Not me reading RationalWiki's article the Nuwaubians and Chip Berlet's "Right Woos Left" when I could have been doing literally anything else…
I stumbled across Skull Trumpet and immediately binged your entire catalog. You're ridiculously good at this.
this video came out after nine months.... he gave birth to this video guys...... congrastulations jeffiot
beautiful baby of a video
The Skull Trumpet video may have helped me find you, but every video you've made is a banger, and whatever you make in the future probably will be too, no matter the genre.
I'd say keep it up but I doubt anyone could stop you already.
Honestly, that's the best explanation of the Monty Hall problem that i've ever seen
“Funnily” enough, bobs burgers, did an episode on Topsy, also side note, ever since the jazzy skeleton video I’ve been watching your videos, each one very well made and cures my boredom instantly, keep up the good work man!! :D
They'll saw "aw, Topsy" at my autopsy!
That was actually a very good explanation of the Monty Hall problem
Couldnt be prouder to be a lil Jeffer
Awe he just a lil’ jeffer
Ive heard the explanation to the monty hall problem so many times and never got it, how did this explain it SO WELL THANK YOUUUUUUUUU
Ferdinand Cheval was fascinating, i cant believe i hadn't heard of him after watching so many of these! Insane that he managed to build so much on his own!
Really easy no-nonsense way to explain the Monty Hall problem: switching turns a wrong choice into a right choice, and a right choice into a wrong choice. You were more likely to pick wrong at first, so it's better to switch.
I would agree, except that he blundered with the 100 door example. Switching does not change your changes from 1/100 to 1/2, it actually gives you a 99/100 chance. An incredible difference!
Finished part 2 just 2 days ago and was sad part 3 wasn't done... very happy it's here! Been loving binging your content while I paint minis, keep up the awesome work!
This channel is so criminally underrated.
As a French woman I had NEVER heard of that last story!! 😭 it is a beautiful story and you told so well too, you are extremely talented❤️ can't wait to binge on your other vids!
Hell yeah, more Jeffiot for my eyes and ears and brain to soak up and think about constantly. I was running out of random quotes you said to have to hide my laughter at when I remember them suddenly.
That LOST joke was greatly appreciated
I've been hooked on your videos ever since the jazz skeleton one and it's been so great to see you gain so many subscribers. I would watch 1 video and you're at 80k, then the next day I watch another and suddenly it's 85k. Love it.
Keep up the work.
Well I certainly didn’t expect to see Unst. My dad lives on the island and I’ve been a few times myself.
There’s usually an honesty box there full of really tasty cakes, but my dad has said they they’ve started removing it for the islands annual festival (Unst Fest) because tourists just kept taking them.
Beautiful part of the world, and a lot more to see than just a bus stop, just up the road is a full Viking longship replica, a gin distillery and shortly they’re planning to launch space rockets just a bit further up.
Genuinely happy I found this channel. Started with the SCP videos randomly one morning before work. Love the content, love the style.
Hi, someone from Argentina here! Cachy (at 34:23) would probably be pronounced "ca-chee", kinda like the word "catchy". Love your videos man, keep at it!
I knew the answer to the Monty Hall Problem.
But your first explanation solidified my understanding of the logic.
And the example with 100 doors made it intuitively obvious.
PART 3 WOOOO
I found your channel a few days ago as well (like many others it seems!) through I think the final destination video. I've been making my way through all your other videos since, your humor is right up my alley and I how you edit and present your videos is a delight. I'm glad I found your channel and can't wait to watch what you've got coming next!
Found you from your Final Destination video and I've been hooked ever since man! If you ever need an extra voice on the channel hit me up!
*If you want to skip the elephant execution segment, skip to **46:08*
One of the many other people who recently found your channel and binged a bunch of it so fantastic timing for part 3 of this to drop.
I'm happy I find more and more creators that covers media I like watching that are also from my own country. Feels really nice and I think that so far this is my favourite. Happy more Swedish people other than Felix gets more recognition. It has also made my day finding people in my country making things I love so much brighter for me since a lot of the creators I grew up with are quitting at the moment. Thank you Jeff.
I think this might actually be the best video on the internet. This stuff is actually genius.
14:05 The wattage of a lightbulb doesn't necessarily have anything to do with it's brightness. Wattage measures how much power the bulb draws per hour. The brightness of a bulb is measured in Lumens.
I've watched enough technology connections that I should know this.
Alternatively; yeah, that's what they WANT you to think.
That lightbulb is some sort of SCP it shouldn't be just hanging in a public place on livestream who knows what chaos it's causing
Found this channel a while ago when it had just a few thousand subscribers and now you're past 100k and releasing a part I've been waiting a while for
This is just genuinely really awesome to see
I wish you the best of luck!
Your accents are absolutely incredible, man.
Fantastic, I needed more Jeffiot in my life
I adore the way this guy edits
I Unironically can't wait, love this Swedish dude stuff!
I love the neutral milk hotel album in the background! Great album
Ok so the monty hall problem basiccally works like this: so, if you pick one door it gives you a 1/3 chance of that door being a car and the other doors carry a 2/3 chance. When the other door is revealed to not have the car then the door that you didn't pick also carrys the 2/3 chance. Anyways, keep it up Jeffiot, love your content!
no then it becomes a 1/2 chance. scenario 1 and scenario 3 are the the exact same thing. it doesnt matter if you pick goat A or B you choose a door and one goat gets revealed, then you can either switch or keep your choice. its 50/50
Got recommended an old video of yours loved it, came to check you’re channel can’t tell you how glad I am you’re still uploading keep kicking ass dude all the best to ya
I've just finished doing a masters in physics and honestly that's actually a pretty good explanation of the Monty Hall problem, at least as it is commonly stated (and as it's stated here in this video)
although ironically it pains me to point out that in the 100 door example, the chance of winning if you switch is actually 99 in 100, not 1 in 2! It's a very easy mistake to make though, which is kind of the whole thing with it; on its surface, the "intuitive" solution is absolutely that it's a 1/2 chance if you switch. However! As you pointed out in the 3-door case, you already know that some doors are eliminated. A simple check is whether your two options (keep your door vs switch your door choice) add up to a 100% chance of finding the prize, as you *have* to find the prize if you open both doors :)
It's also a really crucial part of the story IMHO (particularly as a woman in STEM myself) that there was a _loooot_ of misogyny involved in people (largely male scientists/mathematicians) trying to tell the original author (who was a woman, Marilyn vos Savant) of the article which made the problem famous that she was wrong and obviously didn't know anything about statistics. There's some nuanced argument to be made about exactly how the problem is presented/formulated, but a huge amount of the backlash and disagreement to the original argument was just... dudes who got butthurt about the fact a woman said something which flew in the way of their immediate gut instinct about a problem :P
I love the “yeah I was going viral you’re probably here because of the doot doot video” meanwhile the algorithm decided fuck that noise, watch the Final Destination one and we are never gonna show you the skeleton gif one until you get hella into these and watch it yourself
Holy fucking shit, I had no idea that The Family is the same as Children of God. I dated someone in college for a couple years who ran away from that cult after an arranged marriage at 16. There's soooo many fucked up things she told me about that cult, and everything you said aboit them is 100% true. One of the things that really stuck out to me that she told me was that all of the "elders" in the church where she lived were all missing half of their pinky or ring finger
...The left half?
@@ClovesnSpice I think maybe? I could be wrong though, it was almost a decade ago
@@kinexkid I was joking, the implied meaning of missing half of any finger would be they lack a finger from the second knuckle on. My joke subverted this by instead implying that it was a specific side of the finger. Similar to when an angry guy says "he has half my dick" and the person he's talking to says "right or left?" It's so confusing that it's funny to any outside observer.
Jeff God please give us a lost episode please. I was to young to watch it when it first came out and now I'm obsessed with it but everyone's over that shit already. Maybe you could talk about the lost args? I feel like hardly anyone has touched on those
Any day that Jeff uploads is a good day that got better🎉🎉
Hey Jeff, just wanted to let you know that, yes, like many people, the skull trumpet video brought me to your channel but the homour and style of your other videos just as this series, the ghost hunting video, the feet in the sea, lighting roy, farts and the david firth socks review made me subscribe. I've been surfing round yt for a long time and I've never stop on a channel and just binged like i have yours. Just finished 'Moustache', it gave me chills! Keep up the good work!
btw there's a guy called hugbees who made a whole series of videos about unusual deaths and a whole video just about seaman john cummings, they're a pretty good youtuber all around apart from their semi-toxic patriotism.
i think semi toxic is hugbees' shtick
yeah but its still a bit annoying at times@@Snocone333
babe come quick, new jeffiot video just dropped
Wow, literally found your channel two days ago and got sad cause you didn't finish this series. Now its here!
jeff I just rewatched parts 1 + 2 yesterday and saw your sneaky comments hinting that you'd continue the series and now here it is wow yippee wahoo :)
it's so funny how the lightbulb is like a religious idol lol
Now way he hitting the griddy, so glad i found your channel through funny trumpet meme, and have totally not binged watched all your videos (man your The Mustache video was so good)
It's about time! I've been waiting for this anxiously, ever since I discovered your channel and watched the other two icebergs among other videos this week.
Ever since i found your channel I've been eagerly awaiting your next uploads, your energy is very welcoming and for lack of a better word, I'll just go with "chill". I think the passion you put into your videos really shows. I love the style. I finished watching all your videos one after the other to get caught up on your current available content and I've not been disappointed, I'd go as far as to call you a comfort channel. Also I've been listening to u.n.p.o.c. since I started watching you and it really hits that spot deep inside, hard to explain but it speaks to you, it's like a comforting hug or just a little voice speaking to you to tell you you're not alone (Ironic since they have that song "Here On My Own"), but it really does.
I lived in unst until 2020, just about shat myself in surprise when you started talking about bobby's bus shelter. Big up jeffiot!
Maybe the best part of those 3 iceberg videos were the "subscribe" segments. Like holy shit, man...
I discovered your channel just a couple days ago and I can only thank the UA-cam algorithm, because it's one of the best things I've seen on here in a while. Your editing is top tier, I love how much creativity you pour into each video, and you're really fucking funny. I'm excited to see what you make next. Cheers!
I actually discovered you through the Final Destination video a few weeks ago, and very conveniently I watched the 2 Iceberg videos last week, so this was fortunate timing for me to discover your channel. I'm really happy to hear the algorithm finally did you a favour, because so far everything I've seen of yours has been great content, long may it continue and congratulations on going viral!
Literally found your channel, and was interested enough to go back to the other parts of the iceberg, and I am in love with your style and “process”. And the “Germanic” style of humor (not sure of your exact nationality, but my barbarian American eats just go ‘ah, a German’ but for all I know, you could be anywhere from Austria to Samiland.) is such a breath of fresh air.
Im so happy you didnt drop this series and completed it! Always a delight to see your videos on my timeline
I’ve never been so excited for a video in my life.
After the trumpet skull video I started watching your videos and honestly I believe you will get your channel verified very very soon. Your content is interesting and has its own style of editing that has a lot of charm. Wish you all the best with your UA-cam career :)
good to see this channel on the rise found it when you had 3k subscribers and knew from the quality it was going places
The band "Swans" had an album in the 1980s called "Children of God", which was how I first heard of this topic.
So glad i found your channel. the tangents,the theories and humour -love it. I just hope the videos get longer as you explore more things you want to talk about. Please keep going because people are noticing, you will get a mill subs in no time. Just enjoy the making of videos dont feel you need to do popular things all the time.
I would love to hear your take on other phenomenas (mandela effect for example and if you guys in sweden have your own list of them?).
But yeah.. I love these videos your scp essays, the final destination video, the doot... Your channel is such a gem. Keep going! 😊
I found you 2 days ago from this very iceberg. I thought I'd have to wait for a bit for a new episode, but then I see it now and I feel that I'm lucky!
Sometimes i get the idea that Jeffiot is Ned flanders IRL but obsessed with cults not religion
this channel has been so fun binge watching thank you sm
this is so wild, i just watched part 1 and 2 of this last night after finding your channel! perfect timing
On a scale from baka to senpai, this is pretty freaking senpai
I've been binge watching your channel for a week or so after finding it through the jazz skull video and I am so stoked to see the Wikipedia iceberg part 3! Also you finally FINALLY made me understand the Monty Hall problem, so thanks!!
the tragic elephant stories remind me of Tusko from the Oklahoma City Zoo, who was accidentally given a fatal LSD overdose by "researchers" in 1962.
just found your channel and watched parts 1+2 back to back!
i was so afraid this series was over and im so glad to see it back
Please do a video on The Shaggs! I'm shocked that theres not a more in-depth video discussing their history.
I was so excited to see this video pop up. Thanks for your great work dude
I became a patron specifically because of your patreon ad breaks, becahse goddamn do they feel me with joy in a certain way