SUPER El Nińo 2023 - It's Getting Really Bad...
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- Опубліковано 25 тра 2024
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I've been hearing reports of a "Super" El Niño, and that it's officially here. But I'll be the first to admit, I had no idea what el niño and la niña even were. And in the course of my research, I have figured out so much, and it's pretty epic stuff. So let's figure out what the World has in store for it for the Summer of 2023, and going into 2024. What even makes it "Super?" Let's find out together!
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Chapters
0:00 - Introduction
0:58 - ENSO System
2:00 - Last Cycle
3:10 - The Power of the Pacific
4:00 - Impacts
5:20 - What makes El Niño
7:00 - Impact on the US
8:00 - Super El Niño
9:20 - Severe Weather
11:40 - What Can You Do?
Hashtags
#LIVEINPOWER #Anker #AnkerSOLIX
what we'll cover
two bit da vinci,el nino,el nino 2023,la nina,extreme weather,weather channel,hurricane season,hurricane season 2023,major hurricane,winter storm,atlantic hurricane season 2023,summer outlook 2023,summer forecast,how el nino and la nina affect weather,el nino weather pattern,el nino la nina explained,what is el nino,will a super el nino develop in 2023?,el nino update,el nino and la nina explained,SUPER El Niño 2023 is Going to be a Beast!, El Niño 2023 is Going to be a INSANE!, 2023 SUPER El Nińo Is HERE - What You NEED To Know!, SUPER El Nińo 2023 - It's Getting really bad, - Наука та технологія
It's been weird in Colorado. We had the wettest June in decades. It is after the 4th of July, and still have not turned on the sprinkler system. Just saw on the news, the entire state is out of drought conditions, when the entire state was in severe drought just last year. The heavy rains started in May. Unfortunately, those rains did overwhelm our old sump pump and our basement was flooded. Note to self, get the sump pump replaced every 7-10 years, not 20 years, and keep an eye on it. Thanks for the info. Been a lot of good stuff. Thanks for breaking it down into easy to understand learning!
As a resident of Rural Marathwada, a draught prone area in south India, this is a start of a horror movie.
2016 we were hit bad, this seems lot worse.
It's almost July and no Signs of Arrival of monsoon yet.
Thanks for this video. It's already been hotter here than usual. We had no spring. We went from cold to hot within a week. Unfortunately I have end stage copd and can't breathe when the air is warm or hot, have to keep the AC pretty low. Do keep the heat low in winter too. My poor hubby wears a sweat shirt in the house year round just so I can breathe. We were going to put solar panels on years ago. The neighbors across the street had them and were getting rebates from the light company. However, we live in an area where we get alot of thunderstorms and the first hail storm we had after they put theirs on was a doozy. They did get the roof and panels replaced by their insurance company and then dropped. When they finally found new homeowners insurance it cost them 4 times what they were paying before. That changed our minds about solar panels. We just invested in a generator that would handle the things that have to be on in case of a power outage.
I would really love if these videos focused just a little bit on the rest of the world too and what effect el niño has on the rest of the world. Don’t get me wrong this was a great video. Here in Sweden the summer has been increadibly hot so far and there has been very little rain, we’ve had two weeks now with around 25-27 degrees celsius and I live quite a bit up north by the coast where this sort of heat usually only occurs a couple times a year. I would really like a deep dive on the golf-stream for example and how it is affected by climate change and how the nordics could end up under ice again if it is disrupted.
I’m sorry for any spelling mistakes, my autocorrect is in swedish.
Send that heat here to Ontario, we've had a well below average spring/summer for temps and more rain than my poor gardens can handle.
I'm in Thailand just west of Bangkok. It's been unusually overcast and rainy. I keep hearing about se Asia heat waves but that's not happening here. The rice is ripening in the fields from the winter planting and it's not supposed to be rainy season yet. We usually have clear hot humid days this time of year but it stays cloudy and rains every afternoon. Something different is going on for sure.
Is there some reason you don't make those videos? Do you have an expectation that your weather never vary? Has climate ever remained static on the planet? Acting like humans are responsible every time the weather changes is lunacy.
@@eriklarson9137 Well, we know animals can alter the environment and the microclimate in their area on a small scale. Beavers do it when they make ponds and elephants can turn forests into savannah which does impact the local weather. But in your opinion, it's "lunacy" to believe that a globe spanning space faring civilization can do on a large scale what we see animals doing at a local level because you don't understand the difference between climate and weather.
The weather especially in Europe and the northern hemisphere is directly affected by the Gulf Stream. If it’s thrown off too much, Europe (and a lot of other places) will go into another Ice age. PBS has a great series on weather and it talks more about world wide affects. You should look into it!
California actually gets more precipitation during an El Niño event. This sometimes impacts our snow pack due to the warmer temperatures and higher elevation Rain. But the jetstream dips further south during El Niño and causes pineapple express events bringing precipitation from the tropics. La Niña brings drought to California.
Can you please teach me what a "pineapple express events" means? That just means a stoner movie too me 😅 🤣
Edit: I found it! - an atmospheric "river" of humidity, generally originating from Hawaii area and bringing rain and storms up to the West coast! Nice to learn something new.
@@mom.left.me.at.michaels9951 atmospheric river that flows into the state like a, well river. A continuous flow of moisture coming from the Pacific Ocean near the Hawaiian islands. This is why it gets the name Pineapple Express
Winter season 2022-2023 was a beast during a La Niña year with record snow pack. Hopefully next winter 2023-2024 will be wet as well
@@SpagineIt was the dying triple dip La Niña with this El Niño sneaking in from the east in a way that shifted the cold water further west - making it a La Niña Modoki, hence the unusual impacts. Further stresses my point about Niño1+2 being far more important than Niño3.4 when it comes to the way California is affected. A La Niña Modoki one year followed by an east-based El Niño the next is probably the most effective way to cause multiple consecutive above-average winters.
note that Arizona is always excluded from discussion in these models, too.
they never predict, or account for, the monsoon we get. and even meteorologists in Arizona categorize the monsoon incorrectly, officially recognizing it as a change in humidity. but... it's a monsoon, which is fundamentally a reversal in wind direction.
current models have the heat dome over Texas moving straight northward over the course of July. this almost never actually happens, though, because the monsoon starts around July 3rd or 4th, and pulls the air from Texas and New Mexico over Arizona. and one of the driving forces behind this is the increase in water temps in the Gulf of Mexico driving pressure changes which push humid air outward. which means northern Mexico and the Southwest gets a reversal of wind direction. this is also what usually pushes hurricanes that enter the Gulf north into Alabama, Louisiana, etc. it's a generalized outward push from the approximate center of the Gulf.
astoundingly, it happens every year, but weather models never predict it, and meteorologists are always surprised by it. and worse, absolutely everything about an El Nino typically drives this more strongly than during other years, but yet again, nobody's predicting or expecting it to happen at all this year, even though it's very likely to start in the next week.
so don't be too hard on the content of this video. the industry as a whole is incompetent when it comes to predicting the weather in our part of the world.
It's wild how these weather patterns impact every area so differently. The last few years (during the la Nina) the winters in my area (Maryland) have been extremely mild. Very little snow, hardly any icy conditions and other than an occasional arctic blast, quite pleasant. Historically, after an el Nino summer, we often have winters with record snowfall - so I am going to try to prepare for that to come!
Oh wow really??? Oh man
Yeah the east coast is gonna get absolutely pummeled with snow this winter
@@dgage1776 I’m in Midwest what should I expect
@@murfy6189 hot and dry from Washington state to North Dakota and down to Colorado. South and east of that should have a lot of crazy storms this summer. This is just what I've learned from multiple sources, and this winter should be generally mild for anywhere except the northeast
@@murfy6189 Usually during El-Nino events, the Midwest is warmer and drier than normal. 2016, we barely had snow here in Wisconsin, and we had highs in the 50's in January!
I hadn’t realized this summer was that hot. We only got up to barely 90 a few days in ohio. Last year was a cold year, this year is how summers should feel imo
living next to the Pacific (maybe 250 yards, native So. Californian) recall the 1997 El Nino and was 50 that year, warmer water and great surfing!!!! Can't wait!
I live in Romania, east europe. I can confirm that i don't remember ever having less than 25 C during the days in end of iune. And we are having rain almost daily. This severly diminished the tast of my fruits in the garden, and greatly contributed to the fruits rotting on the tree. This year's super el ninio is granted.
2016 flooding in Louisiana cannot be considered without factoring in that it was a manmade flood event. Barriers on Interstate 12 were in place without drainage, causing them to dam up all of the rain watershed. I was there.
Sothis has began in 2022? I'm in Mexico and last yearfrom an average rainy season of 90 days,only 8 days of rain we had, this year has been hotter but at least the rainy season started in May instead of June by all the month of June, not one, single day of rain, excepting the 30th, I sure hope and pray we get more rain, last year's drought severely affected our grapefruit tree, usually each spring it fills with blossoms, this year was the exception. Thanks for sharing Da Vinci, 👍and greetings👋from central Mexico.
Thanks for the information. I'm not a weather geek and this is my first time watching, but you give a far better explanation of the event than 90% of the guys and gals on the tube! Which is why I just subscribed!!💯👍
The hottest years on record were in the 1930s but because of political falsehoods you have to research it yourself. There has been steady cooling since when you look at the real data. I used to love science before horrible genocidal madness by hate-filled DEGENERATES infected it with a terminal disease. Get a weather station and compare official data to your own and keep records for future reference. You'll become enraged.
In California we love El nino because it means more rain for all the dry farmland.
The weather is definitely different this year. Here in Montana, we have had at least 10-15x the normal rain in the last two months. Usually we will get about an inch or two. Each rain storm we have had, has been 2-3 inches each storm with flooding events being very frequent. It has also been a lot cooler this year. Normally it's in the high 80's, and it has barely made it past 80 so far. We are the ones that typically get fires this time of year, but they are happening to our neighbors to the north this year. I just hope it isn't like last summer, where it was hovering around 100 for over a month straight(almost 2). That was a brutal summer.
We are at the end years of a solar maximum, an 11 year cycle. It affects all of our weather.
@@were2baby134climate models factor in the solar maximum, there’s a warming trend even if you remove the sun from the equation. Guess what’s causing that
@@poopscoop9016 Well considering we know they are intentionally doing "climate engineering" and "geoengineering" how do we know that a lot of this isn't due to the idiot scientists and govt messing with the weather and making the situation much worse so they can say it is climate change and force us into giving things up?? I live in Colorado and we are getting torrential amounts of constant rain for months now. I have never seen anything like this in my 40yrs in Colorado. It has been going on for months and keeps happening. We are not getting warm like usual either, and I personally feel so skunky and awful not having sun and warmth like we normally get as a boost in summer in Colorado. At minimum we should be having more sun and not constant cloud haze.
In our mainstream media (local and national) about six months ago they admitted that they are climate engineering to try to make more rain in Colorado so that it would end the drought. All winter they would spray the clouds (it was obvious), then there would be haze, then it would snow on Weds every week for weeks on end. Then in the spring every day that they sprayed the rain would come...when they weren't spraying early in the morning no rain or clouds would come (but it wasn't very often they weren't spraying). I used to think that was a conspiracy theory, but now that I have seen it with my own eyes repeatedly and the media is admitting to it I am very dubious about the extent of the damage being caused to us and the environment from the heavy metals being sprayed all the time (just google, climate engineering drought in Colorado).
@@poopscoop9016
The Milankovich cycles? The gravitational force of Jupiter pulls us closer to the Sun than usual?
Any solar flares or solar storms?
Please enlighten us with your AGW pseudoscience…
New normal prepare
The biggest wildfire in recorded US history is the 1825 Miramichi Fire. It blazed through an estimated 3,000,000 million acres and claimed at least 160 lives. That makes it not just one of the most widespread fires, but also one of the deadliest.
I live in Dallas, TX. And this summer has been amazing! There is plenty of rainy days and very mild hot days. Best weather I 3yrs.
You've got the Jetstream graphic flowing the wrong way.
Anything can happen during a "super" El Nino....
😜
You have become my new go to channel for interesting facts, love the structure you got.
One engineer to another
Same here. Guy's got a great presentation format.
Calling weather prediction a "fact". That's too big of an oof to even mock.
@@eriklarson9137 this comment is aimed to the channel in general, this just happen to be the latest video
Everybody's been hollering "EL NIÑO IS HERE" but here in Malaysia it has been cold and very wet since 2 years ago. No dry season at all, let alone El Niño.
Seems as if we've been stuck in the monsoon season for years...
I like El Nino because it usually brings colder and wetter than normal winters to Texas which is something that sounds very appealing to me right now as I am currently baking in Southeast Texas.
Not going to help in summer time, likely be hotter than normal.
I live in Central Texas and El Nino can't get here fast enough, lol. REALLY could use a break from this overly oppressive heat day in and day out with no end in sight.
We normally keep a close eye on it here in Australia, the Pacific water is heating up a lot but the Indian Ocean Dipole is still in a neutral phase currently. If that were to remain neutral it can temper the impact of an El Nino. The presence of strong rainfall and cyclones a possible release valve for some additional heat exiting the system. During the most extreme El Nino events we usually have weak monsoon season and low cyclone activity.
summer this year is gunna be a stinker
Interesting, thanks for making us aware of that. 🇺🇸🇦🇺
Australia has floods or droughts, not much on between.
Good luck, Ausies!
Got a feeling we're going to see some nasty bushfires this upcoming summer in Australia..
It's gonna be interesting to see if the superheated sea surface temperatures will alter any of the previous norms, like reduced cyclone activity or weaker monsoon activity, - because the ocean heat energy is gonna generate a helluva lot more water vapor in the atmosphere than previous El Niño events. It will be a huge surprise if we don't experience major weather disruption this time around - without being sure how it is gonna manifest itself ?
4:58 re, "stronger than ever"
You meant "stronger than ever recorded". It's a small but significant difference.
I have lived in Los Angeles for all of my 60 years here on Earth. Last year at this time, we were experiencing record breaking heat waves and then in the winter we had record breaking rain storms! It was absurd and very unusual. This summer has been very different already. Mild temperatures and nothing really above the high 80s as of today. I welcome the cool temperatures down here in LA and hope it continues! 😎 🌞
We had tornados back in March here in central Cali. I for one was under a funnel cloud that hasn't happened to me since the 97' El Nino. El Nino of 97' produced winds as strong as a CAT 1 hurricane on some days. Power was out almost everywhere. It even SNOWED. Which is rare for the west coast and I am not talking about the mountains. Flood waters was crazy. Levees were breaking left and right. Flash flood warnings everyday on the radios because of another levee break. I remember singing the rain song for it to go away when I was a kid. No sun for weeks. It is starting to seem like this one will be the strongest ever for California. I'm ready and excited.
El Nino usually results in less hurricane activity because of greater wind shear so even though the Atlantic is warmer, wind shear will probably kill hurricanes before they form
Yep. 2015 was a low activity year and 2016 was average with most storms not able to reach the US coast due to shear. Matthew is an exception, not the rule. Was similar in 97-98. Live in FL and remember both. While the Atlantic is warmer, wind shear is also very high and that depresses development unless there is a gap like Matthew.
Agree. I live on St. Maarten. El Niño years are safer for us.
Whew!
It tends to shift all the hurricane activity from the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific. Places like Baja and Hawaii tend to get more hurricanes during El Niño events because, well, that’s where the water is warmer.
@@kennystrawnmusic the water is most assuredly warmer here in the Caribbean. Normally I cannot get in from Dec to March because it’s simply too cold. This past winter was warm enough to be bareable and now, in June, it bath water warm. Temps we don’t typically see until September. The only saving grace for us is the wind shear that El Niños bring to the Atlantic or we’d be in deep trouble with these water temps.
The 97-98 El nino... I remember that one. Sitting in English class and getting hit by a squall that dropped over an inch of rain in about 60-90 minutes. Blue sky before, blue sky after. Watched the back of a waterfall off the eaves during. 98-99 and 99-00 were pretty intense, too.
I really enjoyed watching this video. You explained it in a way that’s a little bit more understanding than any other person I’ve ever watched explaining these types of events.
If they would keep thousands of planes out of the sky it would help.
Thank you for sharing this! You help me to understand the big picture and weather terms that I was uncertain of. You are a really good teacher.
El Niño usually means less Atlantic tropical storms. The sub-tropical jet is stronger during El Niño, which shears off the top of tropical storms.
I hope you right because i live right here in the Miami area
@@Pimporly I’ve lived in Florida for almost 51 years. El Niño is in fact a preferred weather pattern for sure. It increases wind shear in the Atlantic and if we get really lucky, it can increase winds across the Sahara desert in Africa. This helps because believe it or not, dust from the Sahara can be blown across the Atlantic and affect hurricane development by drying them out. We had one busy year downgraded because of the relentless sandstorms drying the air in the Atlantic. Make sure you have a good hurricane plan in place regardless of what type of hurricane season we get. Keep up to date with your local news and if you want even more info the UA-cam channel Ryan Hall Y’all is fantastic. They are all meteorologists, not just UA-camrs and go live when bad weather happens. They did great coverage when Ida hit the west coast last year.
@@Pimporly You don't happen to know of a place called Miami Seaquarium where u live, would you?
@@Pimporly - 1992 was an El Niño year. The first named storm didn't occur until late August. That storm was Andrew.
@@Zoyx hurricane Andrew was a nasty storm. The worst I can remember up to that point. Hugo was bad too but only because it basically scraped the whole east coast, but it wasn't as intense as Andrew if I remember correctly.
Given the amount of rain we've already had in 2023, I've been wondering if this was going to be an El Niño year.
In Australia less rain during El Nino gives us the big dry , time now to backburn if necessary . Hopefully La Nina sticks around for Summer , (December , January and February) , another mild wet Summer would be appreciated . Your presentation is informative and straight to the point , and no , you are not an alarmist , it is always better to be aware of the possible dangers that we may encounter !. Preparation has prevented many a tragedy .
Thank you
It has been to wet in Victoria to Backburn. Spring should be the best time before we all burn in summer.
I’ve lived in TN for a long time, and one of the prettiest things about this state is the wide variety of evergreens.
Asked a tree expert what could be going on with so many of them dying. He thought it could be they’re not getting enough water.
I had wondered if it could be invasive insects.
A few years ago, there was a wildfire like nothing else in recent history, across the Smoky Mountains.
This region has been humid and lush as long as I can remember.
These are troubling signs.
Decreases hurricanes, but increases tornadoes. For the states, it increase precipitation which impacts heat for the west and south. This means that less ice falls in west, which equals to less running water to drink, shower, and irrigation for people in California for example. South like Texas experiences more rain with extreme precipitation, which equals to more tropical and severe storms. At least thats what I understand
Except that got broken this year with the unprecedented snows in the higher elevations in California. As for Texas (where I live), tornados are bad this year (Perryton and Matador got hit in the last 2 weeks) and the panhandle has been drown in rain to the point that there have been 4k head of cattle lost and the towns in and around the Amarillo area have been flooded. Lake Meredith has refilled after the drought had the marina sitting on the dry lakebed. But they're forecasting less hurricanes due to the wind sheer. This is good and I'm keeping an eye on the Gulf (I live 15 miles inland from Galveston) because the water is above normal for the year already and we're not in the hottest part of the year yet (late July-Labor day). The wind sheer is going to be necessary to keep things from getting horrible.
@@charlayned I sure hope that windsheer comes out to play especially for those communities where you live. I was about to relocate to Galveston for medical school, but ended up in Fort Worth instead! Best
During the hurricane season which continues through the end of November, El Nino tends to increase wind shear across the Atlantic Basin. This helps suppress the development of tropical activity in the Atlantic.
Except in 2005 when all hell broke loose
I had no idea it affected the east coast or sea.
Typically, but the ocean is also not 1 degree higher either. Hard to say what will happen 🤷🏼♂️
@@tech5298up, we were stuck in a dry period due to this omega symbol shaped pattern that helped break up storms coming from the West for a while.
Edit: ugh, I do not like this new autocorrect.
@@tech5298 It does, majorly. Look it up, there is tons of videos on this exact topic.
My first visit to your channel ...
BRAVO!!
Thanks for the great data, smart recommendations AND information on costs for doing one's best to prepare.
I'll be back to learn more!
After the Fires in Nova scotia this year, it has done nothing but rain all summer, my lawn has mushrooms growing everywhere is just constantly wet
First time watcher and I could literally listen to you talk all day. Also, as someone who researches this for a living, I must say it’s by far the best summary I’ve ever heard. Subscribed.
So it didn't annoy you that he had a graphic with the jet streams going completely backwards?
@@warwicktaylor347 Jessie is a bot and didn't actually watch the video.
As a resident of the Southwest USA, I can say, we've had a very mild summer so far. While Texas is getting beat down by the sun, we are maintaining highs in the low 100's (38), which is super nice. Normally we are at least 10 degrees hotter by now.
Same for Arizona. It was around 110 by mid May last year and stayed that way till August/September but it's still only low 100s .
I hear nature answering back with saying, “Hold my beer and watch this!”
Texas
same here in the southeast! (atlanta) - has been incredibly mild, very few days over 90, most in the mid 80s
Saw on Ryan Hall that you have Jet stream currently doing a lot of cooling for ya while also causing some crazy havoc on Storm patterns. But then again so far its just early summer. August and september is when high summer starts. . . I really hope we don't get a 2018 repeat. That heat was wild. Though apparently current numbers apparently makes it hard for the weather folks to predict local weather events a hell of a lot more now.
My house was built in 1993, so I have 6" well-insulated walls and ceiling. I run my AC at night, and I cool it down so it's almost as cold as a meat locker. No matter how warm it is outside, the AC doesn't start to run again until very late in the afternoon. By doing this, I'm not trying to compete with the sun on cooling the house down (outside temp drops 10 -20 degrees overnight). I had a guy from the local electric company that this is the perfect way to cool your house for the cheapest cost and it helps save the 'grid'.
Yah it’s using your home as a battery in essence. Very smart
With the exception of the past two weeks, it has been bone dry this year where I am. The plants have taken a huge hit and the bugs are going through multiple die off and rebirth cycles ( when they usually only do it once a year). It was basically the dust bowl up to 10 days ago.
Dude crushing it right now. Thanks for sharing my man
Awsome content, I love that you cover so many subjects and do them all so thoroughly... Good job 👏
First time viewer on this channel and I must say WHAT A BREATH OF FRESH AIR! You're just giving us what you know/found/learned honestly and humbly, sharing really cool and informative stuff without all the very typical alarmism. It's very appreciated.
Are you kidding? This is just green grifting, nothing humble or honest. maybe not 'alarmism', but still unnecessary hype. "super" El Nino... c'mon. Sell more solar panels....
@@peterbelanger4094 No. I stand by my words, and I think it’s very clearly depicted in the video.
There’s a difference between something you may disagree with and things that are spoken of as alarmism lol
He clearly speaks about how his information comes from climate models and historical patterns and states that there are zero solid predictions multiple times.
This was a properly informative video that allows you to prepare when the likelihood of severe storms goes up over a relatively short period of time, which is not the same as alarmism in any which way or form.
I’m in Michigan …I will attest to a much wetter spring than usual….I am grateful …2022 gave us 2 droughts in a row..end of Summer and middle Fall…mushroom season was 👎🏼……🌸☀️🌎💙
Just putting the content aside for a moment, I have to say I'm very impressed with your presentation, delivery and spoken content. Very clear and detailed information imparted beautifully. I also like the fact that you do not need any irritating or distracting background 'muzak' to supplement proceedings, just using the quality of your voice to carry the content. Excellent.
This exactly! I have misophonia and have to skip far too many videos because I can't stand when the background "music" competes with the voice track.
Great information and very accessible. Graphics and production values are first rate too! Thanks for the time you invested in making this. I also enjoyed your analysis of the Titan submersible fiasco…I am subscribed and will toss a couple bucks in your hat…keep up the superlative work!
I just watched this watching your video on the recent fires and ongoing devastation in Hawaii. Talk about a deja vu. Shudder. My heart so goes out to the Hawaiian people. But also to the others who've had terrible fires this year, eg, here in Canada, and others. Then there have been so many floods, and just the past couple of days landslides in India. I'm nearly 70 years old and i definitely notice changes in weather, etc. It's definitely warmer in the winters here in Ontario, Canada, than it used to be, for the most part. Summers...not sure. It seems hotter sometimes, sometimes less so. I think we're getting more cloud cover now than we used to, even before our fires in 2023. Thank you for all the info you pull together and altho it's fast, I can follow it. Really appreciate it. (am typing with broken arm, so excuse any errors.
Thank you Diana, and thank you for your insights... I always wonder just how much is changing , vs perceptions
El-Nino typically brings drought conditions to eastern Australia which usually starts with a drier more mild winter where I am from in the south eastern corner. So far this winter has not been that way as we have had quite normal rainfall and cold conditions. We will have to see how the rest of winter pans out. We have had very heavy rainfall through the arid interior in the last two weeks which is very unusual and the tropical north that is in its dry season phase is wetter than usual as well and quite a bit cooler. All these things also don't hold with what a El-Nino normally brings.
I’m in Victoria and I agree it has so far been a wet cold winter.
I am in eastern Canada, we have had one of the wettest, coldest Junes we can remember.
I live in Northern Arizona, and it's been one of the mildest summers I've seen in the past decade
El Niño is just barely getting started, wait for it.
South Asia had the hottest (not one of the) June and probably the driest.
All the hot water from eastern Indian Ocean moved to central Pacific.
Unstable change is the point. I’m originally from Minnesota…many decades now in Montana…I’ve been comparing trends here with there via relatives. This year the patterns totally flipped in both temperature and rainfall. We’re not imagining it or remembering things wrong…we actually researched patterns going back to our childhoods. Did things like this happen before? Yes….but it’s the flipped pattern that caught our attention.
I just discovered your channel. Just want to say that I really enjoy the way you explain everything and your videos are very informative.
Glad you popped up on
my feed 😊👍🏼
Love ya 2!
Nearly forgotten in Canadian history is the 1919 wildfire that swept through Canada's Prairie Provinces and consumed nearly five million acres. The fire permanently altered lives and the landscape but left behind many unanswered questions.
Good video. Thanks. I don't mean to be unsympathetic (which means I'm going to be) but I have a hard time working up sympathy for hikers who go out on UNSHADED trails in the middle of summer when temperatures are over 110 deg F.
Must be nice to have shade everywhere you go, enjoy your ac
@@adamd5013 I’m sorry, are you trying to be clever? I love the sun, but I’m not stupid enough to stay for hours in the sun when temps are over 100 deg F. If that’s something you like, then good for you.
I do love the Anker battery sponsor. Works great with our lighting. Especially during all those outages from El Nino 😊
I agree it's a rare case of a relevant sponsor in the middle of the video.
Thank you for all the great information my friend. Appreciate you!!
I live in Texas and the heat sucks but it's like every other typical summer here.
Triple digit heat, dry conditions, and burn bans are in effect.
They are telling us Texans to be careful because the grass can easily ignite and cause wildfires.
Louisiana saw a 100 year flood in 2016 as well. Entire cities were inundated with water over the tops of roofs. My brother and his family had to be rescued with airboats from their roof.
49% of Louisiana is below sea level....
Yeah I was living in Livingston Parish for that. My sister and mom had to be rescued by boat. It was bad for weeks.
Great presentation skills - as always! I always look forward to your presentations.
You’re becoming a favorite commenter in a hurry!
@@TwoBitDaVinci I appreciate your work! This one is especially interesting as I have seen multiple hot, dry years here in Minnesota recently, along with multiple days of Canadian wildfire smog - and this helps provide some potential background information.
Thanks for all you did in this video and all you put into it
In north central Pennsylvania we had something unusual occur during the last month (June 2023), we had a dry heat wave. Temperatures were in the upper 80's and low 90's for highs, and then it dropped down to around 40 degrees cooler at night. We usually see great temperature fluctuations during spring and fall up here, but the summers are usually very humid with warmer nights. To be honest I actually enjoyed the dryer heat because there was relief when the sun went down.
Im new to your channel and i want to say your videos are amazing! Thank you for explaining everything in an understandable way without dumbing down the info.😊
Same for me. I love the "just the facts, Mam" approach and the style of delivery. Thank you.
Thanks for the warning! I’m moving off grid here in a couple of months, and am preparing as well as I can. Unfortunately, my budget limited me to a canvas tent, so weather may be a bit more challenging to deal with. I’m planning on building a hillside house next, so I’ll be sheltered from extreme heat and cold.
How did you start going about this to get that initial money to move and buy equipment
lol just say you're broke as shit.
Unusually warm in many parts of Australia at the moment, no snow minimal frosts, water & feed shortages already, farmers destocking, not shaping up to be a nice summer.
During 87 - 88 El Nino we had a summer near Cleveland with temps of 104 f with 100% humidity. That was the worst summer ever. My father in law died in his sleep on a particular hot night. Heat with high humidity is deadly especially in areas where those temps rarely exist.
That would equate to a 104 degree dewpoint. US record dewpoint is 88
@@brodyadams-iu6gi Ask Google "Can 100% humidity exist at 104F." Answer Surprisingly, yes, the condition is known as supersaturation. At any given temperature and air pressure, a specific maximum amount of water vapor in the air will produce a relative humidity (RH) of 100 percent. Supersaturated air literally contains more water vapor than is needed to cause saturation.Jul 20, 2011
I can only speak for my area, Las Vegas and surrounding areas. It has been cooler than normal by far. Las Vegas just broke a standing record from 1965 with the most consecutive days under 100° the previous record was 290 days and they surpassed that on Monday June 26th I believe it was. So the weather is below normal in some areas. Thank you for the information you present.
Where I live it's beenn cooler. I don't deal with the cold very well. I hear my neighbor's air conditioner as many people use air conditioners no matter what. But I still use my electric blanket over my legs. I love to garden and I had to delay planting. I didn't think I'd ever see a night where the low temperature was above 50 F. Peas are all I've managed to grow well. And I'm finally glad to have the houseplants on the porch.
this stupid computer changes my email address to one I used decades ago Why does it do that?
Very interesting info and explained expertly in terms I could actually understand. Thank you.
Recorded history is an interesting statement when historically the world has been hotter and covered in magma in the past... We are simply lucky to be alive. Enjoy it.
No, you're talking about eras when humans weren't around. History is a record of things happening since humans appeared - the earliest historical period is called pre-history since there are typically no records and we have to rely on archeological evidence. In many areas, the pre-historical phase takes us all the way up to 600 BCE. Recorded history means those historical periods after pre-history.
@@bonnie115 You must never have heard about Geologic history. Pick up a book Karen.
I live in Santa Cruz County, California. History says that strong El Niños usually have substantial impacts on us. The annual rainfall typically increases quite a bit (though I have a vague recollection of a very dry year during an El Niño season); but more critically for us, we get devastating atmospheric river events that cause mudslide mayhem. Half the people that died in the Storm of '82 (Jan 2-4, 1982) died in one enormous mudslide. I'll have to look at more detailed calendars of specific events vis-à-vis the oscillation, because it just occurred to me there may be a detail we have been missing. The current rain season for us had a series of AV events, including a couple of whoppers coinciding with winter tides and extreme storm surges. So now I have a working hypothesis that the worst downpours may be a symptom of the commencement of El Niño and possibly in reflection of the rapidity of the transition into El Niño, which has been extraordinary this year, rather than the intensity or duration. Instead, the intensity and duration of the full-on El Niño season determine total precipitation, number of wet days, and hydrology. Just a hypothesis. I can already feel I'm going to obsess over it, though. 🤓
Good observation, I’ve lived in the county since the late 60s and we had a long dry spell in the early 70s if you recall that went for nearly 10 years until the storm of 82 when love creek and so many other places got flooded out.
I lived in Santa Barbara same period. Lots of rain.. devils slide slid. Ha lots of rain equals lots of plant growth which means more fire fuel... Fire happens either way.
I Iive in sc too!! 🙌🙌 came here to see what’s going on!!! With such an insane winter we just had wondering what’s gunna happen next?! 😯
I love how everyone says “hottest year ever recorded” as if since the beginning of time it’s never been hotter. They leave off the fact that we haven’t been recording global weather longer than about 1880. Not debating climate changes, but wish the whole story was told.
This has been one of the mildest summers I have ever experienced in Phoenix, Arizona this year. The summer has been amazing as opposed to the summer of 2020 when Phoenix was hell on Earth. In AZ, we are hoping for more of the same. My condolences to the awesome Texas crowd for the torture you-all are having to endure this summer! For Texans, its time to go on an extended vacation in a cooler area of the world. That is what we do in AZ during the summer, but this year I just may stay at home since the weather is so nice.
Yup, we have your typical heat dome over Central Tx. Come get it asap.👍
“This summer” has barely begun. It’s just turned July.
I'm in central-ish Texas and it has been pretty normal as far as weather goes except for the late then rapid onset of hot days. Instead of the more gradual increase over time.... we had generally cooler (not cool but not bad) temperatures for longer then bam summer Temps.... but even those aren't abnormal for our multi-year cycle.... definitely not like what happened in 2010ish drought that killed tons of trees
I thought az would be hot
Also in Phx, we did have a day in June with the low at 67F. Thats a rare site to see.
I would argue the two hikers who died while hiking, were not a result of the heat wave but either their poor level of preparation for the hike or simply new to hiking. The weather is just there, if someone dies, its without personal reasons. And usually its their fault.
Build a small ice shelter made of wood that would fit the number of people in your home comfortable lying down or siting, insulate walls with reflective aluminum sheets and insulating foam in 2 layers, buy a cheap freezer for 300 dollars and fill the sides with ice mixed with salt. There should be a covered exhaust at the top and 2 passages at the bottom where the air comes in (that can be sealed if needed. Ice house should be elevated for like 1 feet off the ground in case there is flooding in your area.
As always great job of explaining and bring out the reasons we all need to get better informed
Have had some of the most pleasant weather in a decade in my area. Mild temps and reservoirs refilled after years of being drained.
Same! Ohio has literally been cold in the morning!
@@definingimage Yeah, that's the gist of it right? Some parts will get milder summers. But the problems could come in winter with heavier rainfall and a peaking El Niño.
@@ipp_tutor el nino is normal part of the cycle however... no need to blow this one out of proportion until the sea temperatures actually reach what they're predicted to reach.
Great video! Two things. I live in Central Florida. 1997-1998 was a terrible elnino winter. We were building a house and constantly had delays due to strong storms and F3 tornadoes. Many fatalities where I lived. Also, 2015-2016 el nino, we had few hurricanes and tropical systems. I think the strong winds across the Caribbean kept them sheared off.
el nino is just the scapegoat. we had 2 years of cool weather during covid lockdown, and now 3 months after covid ends, el nino came back coincidentally. It should be called 'Fuel Burnino' (car, plane, machine, industries)
I live in Panama. In Panama, El Niño makes dry weather, but El Niño increases the number of tropical storms in the Caribbean. Tropical storms in the Caribbean produce strong rains in Panama. It year has been multiple tropical storms but these storms only make a fogged day with low rain.
My little Washington town usually gets summer heat that can rival Death Valley, but so far we've had record cold temperatures for this time of year. Unlike last year, where all June we were blasting through record highs. Occasionally it breaks the 60-70°f streaks to have a day of 90+°. But for the most part it's been down right cold. The bright side is our forest fires are down considerably... But we're going to be super hard hit by the el nino heat lol (which according to AccuWeather officially kicks in today). I really need to get around to plugging in my second air-conditioner. Thank heavens we have the cheapest electricity in the US. Lighting is our only enemy on that front.
Fun fact, half of the 'Evergreen State' is a desert. Everything on the east side of the cascades.
@@femme_fatalist jeezus. Florida truely is hell. If you ever have the opprotunity to jump ship; suggest Ireland, for climate. State wise, go north west. The pacific ocean has the most stable climate, as far as storms go. Western Washington, in my opinion, has the most temperate weather in the nation.
A little water hits the ground there where you live, and you can grow anything!
I've been thinking of using water instead of AC. Get a wet rag, rub my forehead and soak my hands in water.
I, too, live in Washington Western Washington, actually...so far spring was long and cold, but it's getting warm now and has been very pleasant.
We are expecting 80* to 90 this week.
The end of July and through Aug can be brutal where I live humid, and 90 plus is common.
Thank you for your in depth lesson. It's the best one I've seen so far. I usually run ,in my apartment ,two ac window units in the summer. I don't have central heating. Last year in southern California, I noticed a skyrocket in the price of electricity. This summer I though I would try, and make it only running the one ac.This is the first day I've used the one ac. It's 100 today, and at 5 I couldn't take the heat anymore. Tomorrow is supposed to be 107 as is sat. and sun. I cannot imagine next year being worse. I will say this. I have friends in Arizona, and it's 114-117 there. I couldn't imagine it getting hotter there in 2024 fro El Nino. I'm already contemplating moving up to Montana or North Dakota. Lol .. Funnynotfunny
In a small-ish apartment, 1 window unit should be enough. Does your apartment face east? Have you considered trying to improve your insulation? Put a reflective sheet in the window, hang a wool blanket against the hottest wall, etc? Could save you some money.
An American presidential candidate a few years ago promised us that electricity rates would "necessarily skyrocket" under his plan and he was elected anyway. Promise kept.
@@David-hm9ic I mean, what costs more? .01 cents per KwH because we shut down some coal plants?
Or an entire country running multiple AC units because of man-made super-el ninos? Running those a/c's 24/7 because they don't have the temperature differential to cool a home in 120 degree weather?
Promises made, promises kept, indeed.
I have noticed that summer came really early this year in Arkansas, US when I woke up yesterday morning at 9 a.m. the temperatures had already hit 90°. Also we have been getting really strong thunderstorms with lots of lightning and strong winds. I love summertime it’s my favorite season of the year, but this is probably gonna be the best summer so far!! ❤🎉
Thank you again. Your information is helpful. Also that you provide predictors and preparation. Its almost like Nature said hey I am going to take a break from a year or two so here is a bunch of water...use it wisely; cheers. Lol.
Brilliant coverage, some of my research shows that these cycles manifest like the butterfly diagrams on the sun, instead of sunspots it shows up as rainfall. The hot-cold cycle is also very similar to the polarity switching on the sun. Another phenomenon is the way magnetic anomalies distribute and move cold air through the atmosphere.
Solar Max is supposed to peak in 2025 per models however, Zharkovas model puts the peak right now with a major collapse in 2030.
Should be interesting indeed.
@@mcasteel2112you telling me imma die or something in 2030 😅?!
@@iimasheriiol222
Well, ... if WE aren't dead by then, theres a big ass asteroid heading our way by 2036...lol
Excellent report, thank you. I appreciate that most of your audience is from the US, but if you are able to give a bit more information on what can be expected in other parts of America and Europe, I'm sure that it would be equally useful and appreciated.
🙏
At least the NOAA information is in meters and Celsius, and RIcky has been using more metric in his videos, that is very welcome! Over all a lot of the educated USA folks are using metric more and more.
Yes UK is suffering a too warm Atlantic surprising us news the ocean temp changes!!!
@@anydaynow01it doesn't matter if it's in meters and Celsius if it's flawed data. Like the data collected on daily temperatures when the monitoring station is next to an air conditioning condenser or in an asphalt parking lot or a top a building. Garbage in, garbage out.
The West Coast of South America (Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile) generally get floods. South East Asia gets drought and a weak monsoon, as does Australia. East Africa also tends to get drought, but that is also affected by conditions in the Indian Ocean. The Pacific Northwest is usually drier and warmer. California can get big storms, with potential for flooding. The Southern US is generally cooler and wetter. Not so sure about US East Coast or Europe. If the Gulf Stream is also warmer than average that will affect both.
Very clear explanation and breakdown -- thank you!
I am in San Antonio, Tx and it is insanely hot here. Not only are we consistently above 105 and the humidity is nearing 100%. It is miserable.
Any sign of relief in sight??
You deserve more subscribers ....this is a great video on the El Niño
Agreed
Totally agree!!
This is a pretty good analysis for a newbie. Thanks! We in CA do TEND to get rainier than average winters. I say tend to. 2015-6 was an exception. Actually '18-'19 was much rainier than that Super ENSO in '15-16. Why? Well, we think it was b/c of a blob of warmer than average water in the central pacific. That tends to correlate with below average precipitation and droughts for us. High pressure systems build easier in those conditions. But I'm not an expert. Check out other teleconnections like the MJO (Madden-Julien Oscillation), PDO, NAO for starters.
It was great to get to talk to you briefly at Fully Charged South earlier this year. I'm glad to see you are covering this, as despite the alarming evidence, the MSM don't seem to be covering this much. Here in the UK, some of the seas around the UK have been 5 to 6 degrees warmer than is normally expected. Yet our meteorologists don't even give this a mention on weather reports. While we cannot easily predict what the effects will be, it would be very wise to prepare for possible extreme weather events. Some of the things you mentioned would be best practice anyway in a normal year. Stay safe and stay positive. Oh PS glad to see you are coming to see my point of view on SUVs v modern Minivans ie ID Buzz beats any SUV for families and adventures. Love and Peace.
We’re stoked for El Niño in the SW, for us it means lots of snow- lots of water. The ENSO neutral winter was bonkers but our last El Niño, in 2019 we had 1,700% of normal winter precipitation. It’ll be a god send for the dry southwest and all those that depend on water from the Colorado River.
So this is good news, no need for the video presenter to be so pessimistic and dramatic
@@GunnarGustafson7mm Well, obviously it depends on where you are located.
yeah im inside that heat dome in texas, this really sucks.
Is it getting better at all? How are you holding up?
@@TwoBitDaVinci pretty good, as long as i do any yardwork at like 7 am its not too bad.
as for my job, i work out of my car at night (armed security guard), so its gonna be sweaty nights for sure.
seems like its gonna get worse though, texas summers have always been brutal.
IMHO we were seeing El Niño effects as early as last year in July 2022. Our Monsoon season was one of the strongest I have ever seen. Last October, we were driving from Southern California to Northern Arizona. A monsoon episode followed us starting from Palm Springs to Northern Arizona and did not let up. I figure we were hit by a foot of precipitation on our trip home.
I remember Monsoon being quite wet the year before that as well.
Might be a very interesting winter coming up.
Thanks for the information🌧
Very well done, and thank you for helping us understand the bigger picture of El nino and global weather extremes in general. The more we understand things we cannot control, the better we can react responsibly in the things we can
Canada's wildfires are mostly from the lack of prescribed burns which the US uses when possible to limit these issues, the actually have no nationwide agency in charge . Local fire fighting groups are up against consistent legal challenges to prevent controlled burns and budget cuts nationwide have reduced Canada's ability to respond when fires do break out. In other words, they turned their forests into a bigger threat by failing to manage them nor provide funds to even observe them
ya and also Turdo lighting fires to promote his climate change agenda
thats was the point, so when the videos came out of them being lit on fire from arson noone was surprised! Justin castro is garbage
The ‘June gloom’ in Southern California seemed to be more pronounced than normal this year.
The 2 big questions with any certain year of expected El Nino for a certain geographic area are: (1) how long will be the duration of the El Nino period and (2) will it be a continual period or more of an intermittent period.
I have a feeling the much warmer than average Atlantic will throw a curveball at us as far as what we would normally expect from a Super El Niño. I speculate that the typical dip in the subtropical jet stream may be pushed further east than with a normal El Niño event, which would change a lot of where we end up experiencing a lot of the dramatic effects. Any thoughts on this from someone with more expertise on this than me?
My prediction is: neither of you will be right. But, you will both make future predictions on the weather anyway. :) Neat.
@@eriklarson9137 My prediction is that both of us will be wrong and you as well, lol
We all deserve this for not caring enough about the climate crisis
Yeah bro we should shut down the country while China builds new coal plants!
Only there is no crisis. We humans only produce 10% of the 4% of the carbon per year. Should we try to be clean of course but to pay taxes for our carbon is just plain dumb. Every decade their is a new dilemma that turns out not to be true. This is that dilemma.