Im a pilot and an infantry combat vet. Those are absolutely explosively delivered shrapnel holes. Some even show heat damage. This airplane was shot down. Not a bird strike, or APU failure, not an uncontained engine failure. Thats missile damage. Exactly like that plane in Ukraine, what was it MH 317?? I get you don't want to be that bold, but i will. It was absolutely shot down.
I'm an airline mechanic of 28 years. There's no way possible to get holes pepper all over the side of the vertical stab from an uncontained engine failure on an aircraft with wing mounted engines...this is nonsense! Simple physics in play here people. And nothing exploded from inside the aircraft, at least not in the tail section as those holes/punctures clearly show damage that was acted UPON this plane. (from the outside).
from the way the holes were made they came from outside projectiles but not from an engine blowout not a chance I've seen a lot of after action air combat plane photos from pilots and documentaries to lead me to believe this was not an engine malfunction plus with no possible hydraulics and only one working engine that plane would have dropped out of the sky like a rock an investigation should prove this
@@vihtoripuurola3775 There is video out there from a passenger in flight showing damage to the interior panels of the aircraft and the rear of the Port side flap track faring, caused by Anti-Aircraft flak. This was definitely an aircraft that was shot at in flight. The tail section is riddled with holes as well.
This is the easiest investigation of all time. Anyone with a basic understanding of aviation that looks at the tail pictures would know for certain the plane was shot down.
This would account for cabin decompression and oxygen mask deployment shown in other online videos taken onboard this aircraft at a much higher altitude.
If the engine exploded that would hit the fuselage from the outside, but I've never seen one before that has such regular holes. You're usually looking and at tears of various sizes rather than more rounded holes. On the other hand it seems they weren't getting problems until they got to the other coast, that said you might go radio silent if someone had just shot at you and if hydraulic fluid was leaking slightly it may take times to start affecting the controls.
And the size of most of the holes is uniform. plus same sized holes littered throughout the Cabin and passenger sections. If it was a bird strike, that bird must have eaten a few Grenades and had some poop issues. (NOT)
Blancolirio is reporting that it looks like the aircraft took a missile strike in the aft fuselage/tail area. The aircraft lost all three hydraulic systems due to complete fluid loss, which is why there were no flaps or spoilers seen deployed before landing. The aircraft was also engaged in phugoid oscillations on flight tracking, having also lost primary controls such as the elevators, ailerons, rudder. The landing gear was down, but it can be deployed with no hydraulics. Video from the aircraft cabin before the crash shows shrapnel damage to the cabin walls and other items plus the auto-deploy oxygen masks were down, indicating the cabin had depressurized well before the landing/crash.
@lesb3481 100% I just can't understand the last few seconds why she pitched the way she did, if they had more height they could have corrected that problem, it wasn't a stall, seemed more like a rudder problem I'm not sure
@JSFGuy true, whatever went wrong in the last few seconds she banked too much and I don't think the pilots had enough height to correct the situation and took the chance and went for it, the plane seemed controllable for much of the emergency, everything seemed engineered correctly till whatever went wrong the last few seconds I just cannot understand how the plane wasn't at horizontal level on approach
@@bob-seek-destroy-sd1708 they had no hydraulic fluid lift. They couldn't move the flight surfaces anymore. They were steering only with engine thrust. They did the best they could they lost the fight. Look up any of the documentaries about United flight 232. Different causation, exact same result
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
@@Matt-rw9pyI think they can, but in this case it wasn't a good thing to do. If you dump fuel you lose power, and if you lose power, you are gliding. They wouldn't have been able to make that last roll maneuver without power that allowed it to not hit the ground head-on which would've killed everybody. I suppose the pilots were choosing between a fiery crash that could save some people or complete disintegration that would've killed everybody.
Being a former USMC Hawk Missile Crewman I know a thing or two about this and that plane was hit with a Anti-Aircraft Missile taking out all 3 Hydraulic systems controlling the flight controls , the pitching was the loss of the elevators the flaps were not lowered the spoilers not extended and the shrapnel caused tearing inward whereas a Ox bottle would cause outward bending and we know the engines were being used to steer the aircraft so both were operating , Also there is damage to both sides of the aircraft as seen in the interior video by a passenger so it wasn't a engine
@@Codehead3 Grozny is still over 900km away from the front lines. That's like the distance between Ukraine and Germany. Do you know that there are still dozens of planes flying around that same airspace right now? Not everything that happens in or near Russia is about the Ukraine-Russia war. I'm not surprised people like you and the media take every opportunity possible to make this about war to stroke your egos.
No. Planes with exploded engines don't do figure-8s (they'd be turning one direction only). And, engine failures don't cause phugoid cycles (that's hydraulic loss, not engine loss). And, non-tail engine failures can't sever all hydraulics (UAL-232 was due to a tail-mounted engine fan blade breaking and severing all 3 hydraulic lines where they converge in the tail). And, shrapnel traveling from an under-wing engine to a tail would have carved long groves, not tiny perfectly-circular punctures; only objects traveling perpendicular to the axis of an airplane can cause that. This plane was clearly shot down by a missile; I could tell that from a single one-second glance at those tiny circular in-curved holes in the tail.
@@iRelevant.47.system.boycottmissiles strike the most radar reflecting part on a plane, on most plane it is the tail. Missile functioned perfectly and shot down the airliner
@@iRelevant.47.system.boycott Drones are not designed for destroying aircraft and therefore have a different type of explosive device. The explosion of an anti-aircraft missile ejects special metal fragments designed to cause maximum damage to the aircraft. The missile does not have to hit the aircraft, but is fired through a special fuse near the aircraft.
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
Thank you for your input. That was my guess too. In all the air crash shows, it takes about this long (a few mins) to lose hydraulics. Do you think they hand-cranked the gear down? What is your take on the Blancholirio video? Are there other parts of the plane that you can hand-crank into position?
@Matt-rw9py large aircraft can; because they can't land with a full fuel load. Smaller ones like this one can land. As far as an accident, the fuel load wouldn't make any difference because you have to have some fuel, and what you also have, no matter the fuel load, is vapor. The vapor is what is explosive.
@@borincod Nobody with any sense is claiming that the plane was hit by an antiair missile as it was coming in to land. Flight data proves that the pilots heroically managed to keep the plane in the air for about 20 minutes after it was hit. I'm sure there *is* a record on the missile homing in on the plane and detonating, but there's no way the Russian military is going to make that public.
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
It looks like she lost hydraulics and thrust, I think the pitch at the end was uncontrollable and the pilots didn't have enough height to correct the problem it's sad however the pilots did a great job with the conditions they were under, RIP to the pilots and those that died
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
@@Matt-rw9py Yes the smaller, narrow-body planes do not have fuel jettison systems. They circle airports / landing sites in emergencies. (To burn off fuel.) Big planes carry so much fuel, it is _impossible_ for them to land fully fueled. They are too heavy - it would collapse their landing gear. So, they can dump it for emergencies, by design. That's why, on radio, big planes say "Swiss Air Flight 805, heavy , with you." Greeting the Air Traffic Control that way reminds them of their special needs.
The real story is the flight path. If the pilots chose to fly to Kazakhstan so Russia couldn't lie about what happened, that was one final brilliant move of theirs.
Russia's hope was that the plane would go down in the Caspian Sea, _not_ that it would land in "Kuh-ZOCK-uh-stan", as the host idiotically pronounced it.
Bro stop the bs... In that situation pilots had no time to think in politics and make conclusions they were doing their best to save themselves and passengers i bet they died and had no idea of what really happens to the plane
Regardless of what the cause of this tragic outcome is,...the undeniable fact, _IS_ ; the *_PILOT_* and *_CO-PILOT_* , are *_HEROES_* !! RIP to those who perished, and a _HUGE_ ,... *Bravo Zulu* to the pilot & co-pilot!!
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
Do you know people on the plane ? If not why does your heart go out to them ? You do realise that tens of thousands of people die everyday around the world. Does your heart go out to them or is it just because this is news... It's the same nonsense in the uk when a child is abducted and killed.. people feel all sympathetic. Why ? In the UK many children are killed weekly or abducted. Approximately 75k children are reported missing each year. Out of them around 18% are never seen again.. People assume it's an extremely rare event. When it's not.
That's shrapnel damage caused by a Russian Buk ground-to-air missile. The Buk missiles are packed with shrapnel and are designed to explode next to the aircraft riveting it with holes and severing electrical & hydraulic lines. This is just like Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 that was also shot down by the Russians 10 years ago.
You can't possibly say that with such certainty since MOST anti-air missiles use fragmentation warheads. The AIM-9X uses a fragmenting warhead. The Russians have Pantsirs, Tor-M1s etc.
The shrapnel in this instance is a different shape from the MH-17 shoot-down. The MH-17 shrapnel was bowtie shape, about 3" long, and this is round. So, a missile but not the same weapons system that shot down MH-17
@@the_lost_navigator but this is nothing like the Nordstream Pipeline really, as that was an explicit strategic goal of the US admin. And the evidence is all secret.
Translation : There was no reason to divert from Grozny that included either weather or technology. The plane could have landed itself in zero visibility. Yet, it crashed on the other side of an entire Sea with shrapnel holes in it's tail. Gosh. We can't figure it out.
@@kurtisengle6256 no GPS and no airport assist landing tools, airport was area control for the Tu-35's launching missiles at Kyiv on Christmas morning. Yeah your right, not hard to figure out
@@crazylocha2515 What the fuck is a "Tu-35"? Because there certainly isn't a Russian aircraft called a "Tu-35". Are you trying to say "Su-35", or "Tu-95"?
Saying the altitude and airspeed were erratic isn't the correct word. The aircraft was going through a phugoid motion, which is usually caused by the inability to use the elevator. A phugoid is an exchange between potential and kinetic energy and looks like a sinusoidal curve or rollercoaster.
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
Birdstrike? What plane (t) are you on? What birds remains after being sucked through an engine can pepper a tail and stabaliser with so many holes? Engines dont explode backwards but radially into the wing or adjoining fuselage. And that panel probably got blown out by a bird strike? Unlikely. How about rapid/ explosive decompression? I thought this channel is conversant with aircraft so I would have thought you would know better because the victims deserve better reporting standards, like getting the countries name right. My sympathies to all concerned.
True, and people ignore the fact that several of those holes are on the side. So even if an engine violently exploded any holes caused by that debris would be to the front of the stabilizers, not the sides. Because physics. But some people seem to just ignore that.
@@zapador There are too many holes and they are distributed relatively evenly, which rules out an exploding engine. In addition, they would have to be of different sizes.
I am one of the passenger who survived this crash and i thank God for saving my life. I didn't know that the plane was going to crash until 1 minutes before it started to drop. It was a horrifying experience...i feel so sad for those who died...i saw so many burnt up bodies and many more bodies without their limbs...
The bird strike story was Russian disinformation propaganda. It was shot down by a surface to air missile fired by Russian air defences. The Russians had jammed all signals in order to cover the launch of an missile and drone attack on Ukraine, and that's why the airliner disappeared from radar. It re-appeared when it got out of the jammed zone, but by that time it had already been hit, with the pilots trying to control the aircraft which had lost all of its hydraulic systems. They were able to get the gear down using the manual gear lowering system, but they were unable to deploy flaps. It seems that for the most part, they were trying to establish some directional control over the aircraft using differential thrust from the two engines, much like the DC-10 which crashed in Sioux City, IA a few decades ago. Sadly, both pilots lost their lives in their heroic struggle to save their aircraft, and the lives of the people on board. This was an unnecessary shootdown of a civilian aircraft, and not the first which can be attributed to the rather incompetent Russian military. Do not believe them when they say it was a bird strike. The damage to the surviving tail section, in addition to video taken by people on board the aircraft definitively prove otherwise.
@@christianbenzinger770 where the impact occurred on I would be skeptically taking their report of what happened and it turns out that's not true. Up to this point that's all we have. New information rolls in as it always does so we can't speculate too much based on that, more on what we see and I have not seen a good video based on this shaky wind blown BS posted stamp flip phone quality video that we've all seen up to this point.
@@JSFGuy there's a very remote possibility that an expendable sea drone armed with an AAM, like how the Ukrainians a year ago fielded a boat drone with an AA-11 on it. But to transport such a weapon to the Caspian Sea and conduct the attack and disappear without being detected seems extremely far-fetched
This is not a miss. Air defence missiles are equipped with proximity fuses since WW2. The idea is to explode a fragmentation grenade near the aircraft rather than hitting it directly. SHORAD anti aircraft guns use timed fragmentation projectiles that are timed and aimed to disintegrate in the flightpath of the aircraft, such that it flies into a cloud of small tungsten bullets.
Sir, the more you say in the duration of the video the more you discredit yourself. The plane was shot down, only you believe the engine had a catastrophic failure!
The airplane was shot down, so what is the purpose of stretching this video with irrelevant information such as weather, ILS procedure, how much thrust the engines are producing, or when the airport was built.????
The Russians, because they are trying to disrupt the GPS guidance systems of Ukranian cruise missiles and attack drones. There is precisely zero motive for the Russians to deliberately shoot this airliner, and GPS jamming isn't an attempt to destroy airliners.
Show respect to the families of the victimes by stopping the ridiculous claim of bird strike at high altitude. Stop turning an blind eye to the dozens of holes in the tail section. Stop be ridiculous !! Respect to the pilots and every family involved in this tragedy. Russia must start taking responsibility for their actions.
I don't buy any uncontained engine explosion scenario -- whether bird strike or otherwise -- because if that was the case, the airplane would have only had one remaining good engine, and they would never have been able to vary thrust to change the flight path. That airplane had too good engines to the very end.
Bingo. They were controlling the flight via the engines. Ailerons and flaps were not in position. They introduced drag by going gear-down very early, to try to slow, and wrestled hard to find that sweet spot in between stalling, and going slow as possible for a gentler landing. Doesn't it look like the _did_ stall in the start of the video? When they started to dive? They recovered it. Incredible. God bless those pilots.
Actually it looks more like anti aircraft missile shrapnel on the tail end. It was "roller coastering" as in a loss of tail controls. There was a drone attack near Grozny prior to the aircraft possibly targeted by Russian anti aircraft assets.
Because they can't see how predictable it is that in a 27.3 billion year old universe, we are no longer likely to be the only intelligent species flying drones and manned craft on this planet. Accidents won't just be caused by human technology.
Man you got to get your pronunciations right before producing vids. It's a real bad look. Oh and that damage around the tail end? Clearly the aircraft was the victim of a prox fused shrapnel filled missile.
Like search UA-cam for how to pronounce Kazakhstan. Just shows ignorance towards an important part of the world. Correct pronunciation also shows respect to the people and cultures who live their lives there.
deep respect to crew and their commitment to do their best to ensure the safest outcome possible due to circumstances even though they knew being up front in a crash wasn't very good odds for themselves for survival. these men and women deserve to be honored in their commitment to try and ensure maximum passenger safety and are a credit to their profession and humanity in these times
AP Mechanic familiar with Embraer here, a few corrections: The flap system of the 190 is electrically driven, not hydraulic. And the emergency Ram Air Turbine is not deployed indicating that they were not in electrical emergency configuration. The flaps not being deployed must've been for a different reason. It's possible they jammed or when commanded, and defaulted to latched in whatever position they were in, or some other mechanical jam. Considering the flight path, I'm more inclined to believe they were never deployed to maintain speed. The Hydraulic 3 bay access door on the aft right is also the exhaust for cabin pressure, hence the mesh square in the middle. The shrapnel damage to the tail may have ruptured the aft pressure bulkhead such that it over loaded the bay as all the cabin pressure tried to escape into that compartment, or the nitrogen pressurized accumulator in that compartment for HYD3, or the Fire Extinguisher Bottles that may be stored in that compartment for the APU, and broke the door open in some manner. The latches are designed such that that could happen, and they appear to still be attached to the door side in all six locations. If the video wasn't so blurry we could see if they ripped out through the skin, or of the latches did actually shear off and it's not visible.
A thousand thanks for that insight. If this helps, I noticed in another longer video, right before the final right bank nose dive leading to the crash, the E190 were level so I could outline right wing flaps canoe fairings on the fuzzy sky background : they were extended (angled down to the back) way beyond that a take off configuration position. Not sure the flaps were fully deployed, or nearly fully deployed, but my understanding is the canoe are mechanically binded to the extension position. If they're pointing down, the flaps are extended (since le blurry footage doesn't let us assert the information by directly looking at the flaps). Also, the flaps may have a different shade from the rest of the wing, however, when deployed, inner and outer flaps on the same wing have different tilting angles. Therefore, at some point in the footage and over the course of different attitudes, they should have different shades if they are deployed, despite not having clear outline of their shape. And.. it's the case here. I'm pretty sure flaps are deployed. As wether they worked properly or defaulted to the last extension position, FDR will be the one to tell. (sorry, I'm not versed in the appropriate vocabulary, not an expert, and english is only my third tongue)
@@StephenKarl_IntegralI've seen that footage, it's difficult to tell. The canoe fairings are yes mechanically articulated by the drive motors. If the hanging piece we see wasn't just the lading gear, which would be at the right pointed down angle and what I think it actually is, it's possible it was damaged. From passenger footage on the left side at least one other canoe was damaged there, so it's also possible it was broken downward, but I doubt that. Aerodynamic forces would push the canoe back up at that speed. They are composite material and very light. I think the hanging bit is just the main landing gear with bad visibility. You may be confusing the flap/slat with the spoilers. The E190 does have spoilers on the top middle of the wing with independent control to the flaps. The spoilers have outer and inner sections that also are separate, but the flaps and slats are all mechanically linked the full length of the wing. The whole wings flap system stops if they have any problem anywhere. The spoilers are hydraulically powered while the slat/flaps are electric powered. The inboard spoilers only work on ground as speed brakes, they need a signal from the landing gear having weight on them to work at all. The outboard spoilers can assist the ailerons and work always. The different color we see could be the hydraulics leaking from the wing which is common, but also possibly part of the accident damage. Like you say, no way to know right now. Yes the Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder will be very good to have. Fortunately one of them should be in that tail section that broke off and we should get good data from it. I hear both were recovered.
@@bronco5334 They would have had engines and stab trim left if they lost all 3 systems. The stab trim was likely not fast enough to keep up with the pitch change from the flap extension, maybe why it pitched down at the end.
@bronco5334 correct, which is why as I've stated it is not my belief they were ever commanded. I'm just a mechanic, the pilots would've had better skill and knowledge of what they were dealing with.
We have to wonder from your statement if your analysis is biased. People in the comments section are being honest. You appear to be protecting the real culprits by talking about a birdstrike!!!
The video narrator doesn't seem knowledgeable. The entire world knew this plane was shot down at the time he posted his video. The evidence was a clear cut as can be. Not "bizarre."
As a former military aviator and SAM expert I would say that the damage to the fuselage and tail is absolutely typical of a missile proximity fuse detonating somewhere adjacent to the rear fuselage. From the images supplied it's not a large one but a point-defence radar-guided system such as SA-19 or 22, Tunguska/Pantsir, would fit. Such a weapon could easily cause depressurisation and sever critical hydraulics. I see no indication of an engine failure. A bird strike can be ruled out. The crew make turns in both directions and appear to be using differential power for control, in the absence of tail hydaulics. In any case a bird would be very unlikely to cause uncontained failure and even an uncontained engine failure would not cause damage to the tail. No, I'd say this was definitely a shoot-down, again!
@@JSFGuyaccording to common sense 😂 I’ve watched a few videos of this crash now and it was no accident. I support Russia over Ukraine but I’m not going to say that it wasn’t a Russian missile or that it was justified in any way.
@@JSFGuy You dont need to be an expert to recognize shrapnel damage mate. its as clear as day that plane was shot down. A bird strike doesn't cause damage like that.
Those are 100% holes from fragments from a missile. You are not going to have holes in the article stabilizer (Rudder) like that from anything else. These missiles have a proximity fuse, meaning that they get close to the aircraft and explode sending high velocity fragments into the aircraft in a wide pattern. I served in the USAF for 40 years and worked combat damage on aircraft and I could tell right off that this was damage caused by a weapon, missile or anti aircraft artillery (AAA), That open access door on the aft end of the fuselage probably happened when it got hit. Again, this aircraft was shot down and the most likely culprit is a Russian anti aircraft missile battery.
How on earth can an uncontained engine failure make serious sharpnel deep punctures on the side of the vertical stablizer? This has to be a clear case of explosive damage using heat signature missile. There was no hydraulic support and the plane was clearly out of control and way too fast because of the loss of hydraulics and no slats and flaps. Even the gears would have been extended manually. The plane was being steered using engines. These brave pilots lost their lives but still managed to save 25 people. RIP all departed souls 😢😢😢
The amount of puncture wounds in the tail section clearly show the fragments has hit from outside and penetrated the skin of the tail section. The amount of holes seem to indicate a bit more than an exploding engine and if the airplane lost all hydraulics, the airplane would have crashed much earlier if they had lost one engine since it would be impossible to control the airplane with only one engine and no hydraulics. The damages to the tail section seems to indicate that the airplane was hit by fragments from a ground to air missile of probably a smaller type. This does not look like to have been an accident caused by any equipment attached or on board the airplane.
It was 1000% shot down. Its not even a question. The holes on the tail are shrapnel from anti air missles. It explodes near the object and shoots shrapnell into the plane.
Ukraine has struck at the Russian Caspian Sea Fleet in Makhachkala with long range drone twice in the last two months. The Russians were caught flat footed both times. This is just up the coast from Baku and near the turn for approach into Grozny. So very conceivable that a spooked air defense team, in low visibility fired on a target they could not visually verify, not wishing to get caught off guard again. The radar presentation and Mode III IFF should have been an indication that it was not a drone.
I dont think it could be an Anti aircraft missile as the weather conditions would have hampered the capabilities of the radar systems providing guidance. also the weather conditions are not good for Ukrainians to be launching drones under such conditions.
The Pantsir's IFF is also a separate vehicle/module in some models, according to Wikipedia, so maybe it had none at all (and were relying on ADSB etc and what did they jam...)
Always a bad idea to fly a civilian aircraft in or close to a war zone (as Iran Air flight 655 shows). Azerbaijan airlines should have stopped all flights into this region of Russia. Not only because of possible aa action but also because there is danger of colliding with an Ukrainian drone. I am surprised by the nonchalance of these airlines. The pilots too should have had second thoughts about flying into this region of Russia.
@@wkgurr There is a false assumption amongst US military planners that once a region is in conflict commercial carriers will wisely cease operations. History says otherwise. I was on the US Naval Staff in the Persian Gulf between the time the USS Stark was kit by an Exocet missile and The USS Vincennes shootdown of the Iran Air flight. What I observed was that the pattern of life continued, despite increasing threats and attacks - both commercial shipping and airlines. But insurance rates skyrocketed. Profit, I am sure was a motivation and these carriers played the odds.
The open access panel is deigned to blow open in the event of a depressurisation. It is a safety system to prevent / minimise damage to the rear fuselage outsize the pressurised parts.
He is American. His knowledge on everything else is profound but it is hard for the rest of the world to understand how ANYBODY who has any interest in Ukraine/ Russian war is unable to say a countries name properly. Is that he is not interested or take any interest in a war going for 3 full years? Yes it's not important but it doesn't inspire confidence.
I'm a retired military pilot. Those holes can have only one origin, an explosion + shrapnel coming from the side... like a missile. Not a wing-mounted engine. Just impossible.
No, sorry, you are so wrong! Look at the shrapnel holes at the back, there is no way even a disintegrating engine could cause that! Plus the pilots reported loss of control after a "bang", they could then only steer with differential thrust, how is that possible if one of the engines had an issue? It was shot down and it was shot down by the Russians, end of story, now go and do some more research.... I spent many years flying military drones including target drones, I know what shrapnel damage looks like....
This is why I watch Blancolirio. He knows what he is talking about. You are way off the mark. Shrapnel in the tail from an engine failure!!? You are purely speculating.
I believe they flew to Kazachstan because the pilots realized they were being targeted in Russia, it was reported that a drone attack by Ukraine happened in the region of Chechnya, so Russian air defense might have mistaken the aircraft as a enemy
The flew to Kazachstand because the airport there is in an unpopulated area on very flat terrain without obstacles. Grozny or their departure airport are surrounded by towns and are in hilly areas.
It has already been reported that a Russian anti-aircraft missile system hit the passenger aircraft. There is no significant physical evidence to indicate that landing would have been an actual problem, unless you get hit with a missile, cannot control the aircraft and are desperately looking for options like vast flat land. The previous reporting on problems with visibility or other atmospheric conditions seems to be a distraction from the truth.
Shrapnel damage could be from an engine tearing itself apart during a bird strike. Would be the correct side of the aircraft and impact locations. Not saying it wasn't a Russian missile but there are other possibilities. We know the Russians have shoy down other aircraft before including Malaysian Flight 17 10 years ago.
The engines were fine. You can hear them functioning smoothly on one of the videos of the crash. Besides shrapnel damage is a very specific type of damage. I believe it was an accident as Russia thought it was a drone from Ukraine, given that it was coming from the same direction Ukraine has been sending drones from, including today. As I say, I think it was misidentified on radar rather than a malicious act.
The bird strike hypothesis seemed to be the first thought of the crew, possibly because there was windshield damage. They may not have realized at first it was a missile. They did a heroic job bringing the aircraft down near the airport, in a place where no one on the ground would be hurt, where passengers had a chance to survive, and thankfully some did. Th pilots are heroes. The details must be investigated and the culprits held responsible.
this plane has been shot down - look at all the shrapnel holes in it's tailplane and fin that does not come from an engine failure .....go check the pictures !!
@@eat_ze_bugs and you obviously have not checked out other videos showing shrapnel holes clearly visible in the tailplane and rudder -and any idiot can tell what trajectory physics tell you - these can NOT have been induced by an engine failure...go check Denys Davydovs video...
@@graantmnz This plane crashed and exploded on impact, and here you are thinking you're such a smart**s believing it was shot at because there were some holes in the wreckage. Only an idiot would make baseless accusations without any concrete evidence from investigators.
@@Nbolanos0624 Unfortunately we cannot rely on the official investigation. We will see if the FDR and CVR go to Russia and whether Embraer is satisfactorily involved (noting even Brazil cannot be trusted in the circumstances).
The Blancolirio channel offers an excellent, more sober evidence based and up to date analysis of air accidents.. Has already produced a preliminary overview.
Shrapnel with what appears to have entered the empennage at a near 90 degrees, could not happen from an engine having exploded. Gotta call Bravo Sierra on the bird strike/engine disintegration theory. Most likely cause was an exterior explosion aft and subsequent hydraulic failure.
NO engine explosion!! Engines are wing mounted and holes are in the stabilizers and aft part of cabin !!! Both engines are running. An engine failure would only harm ONE of the hydraulic systems.
...did my stint based at BIAP 20 yrs ago, plenty of aircraft returned with damage after having been shot at with SAM missiles, and those holes peppering the tailplane are 100% shrapnel and not from a turbine throwing a blade. The shrapnel took out the hydraulics and made the plane virtually impossible to control... Poor folks on board...
The holes in the rear section tailplane are consistent with the appearance of fragmentation rod impacts from a SAM warhead detonation. It was very obviously shot down.
Feel bad for the loss of family and friends. If I were living in that part of the world, I’d rather drive or take a train to get somewhere. New reports out that the Russians shot it down. Most notably, that area has been notamed off limits for air carriers of a few countries.
Old Boeings are better. Nice to know that Azerbaijani planes are well maintained. New reports that this one was shot down by Russians. They shoot down their own planes. That area is off limits to several countries to fly over.
10:30 ".....we extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of those who lost their lives...." OK, now that I've ignored my family on this festive holiday, thanks for watching the video so I can capitalize on the crash through monetized videos and tell you exactly what will be told on broadcast news stations.
Caspian Post a minor point I can't explain is that in flight it appeared that hatch in the rear was hanging down, but it's position after the crash makes it seem like the hinge was in a location where that wouldn't have happened.
I'm reminded of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014. That was a ground to air missile fitted with a proximity fuze. Pattern of perforations on tail section here suggests a similar event. Maybe it's time to abandon all attempts at civil aviation from Western Ukraine to the Caspian Sea.
Nobody knows (except maybe the intelligence agencies). But everyone is happy to instantly blame Russia. Just like when the Nordstream pipeline was destroyed.
Oxygen masks wouldn't he deployed at that height as they would still be in thick air under flight level 1-00 I don't believe it was decompression from the footage
UPDATE: ua-cam.com/video/AngacPqO3bM/v-deo.html
Gps jamming may have contributed to the reason for the diversion?
Im a pilot and an infantry combat vet. Those are absolutely explosively delivered shrapnel holes. Some even show heat damage. This airplane was shot down. Not a bird strike, or APU failure, not an uncontained engine failure. Thats missile damage. Exactly like that plane in Ukraine, what was it MH 317?? I get you don't want to be that bold, but i will. It was absolutely shot down.
russian air defense is my guess
@ukrainef_poo-tin8917 agreed
I'm curious as to the manifest at this point..
It was MH17 in 2014. Imho it was smaller launcher this time - Pantsir (Панцирь) S2. MH17 was shot down by big 9k37 BUK „SAM” system.
there was ukrainian drone attacks near that area so russian sam sites were probably in high alert
I'm an airline mechanic of 28 years. There's no way possible to get holes pepper all over the side of the vertical stab from an uncontained engine failure on an aircraft with wing mounted engines...this is nonsense! Simple physics in play here people. And nothing exploded from inside the aircraft, at least not in the tail section as those holes/punctures clearly show damage that was acted UPON this plane. (from the outside).
Is it possible to get this pepper spray pattern on the tail from the debris following the explosion on the ground?
from the way the holes were made they came from outside projectiles but not from an engine blowout not a chance
I've seen a lot of after action air combat plane photos from pilots and documentaries to lead me to believe this was not an engine malfunction plus with no possible hydraulics and only one working engine that plane would have dropped out of the sky like a rock an investigation should prove this
Mostly you say I'm not sure, not yet known. You need to gather all evidence before giving us unclear feed back.
Yes even just based on simple physics holes that go inward must have been caused by some outside (ie a missile strike).
7.38 shows the puncture hole with the metal going in,entrance hole from outside.
What are we talking about here?The plane clearly has shrapnel damage caused by some sort of missile. This was not from a engine coming apart.
Exactly. Shrapnel came from the side and down through the stabilizer from what I've seen. Not a bird strike or engine coming apart.
@@vihtoripuurola3775 There is video out there from a passenger in flight showing damage to the interior panels of the aircraft and the rear of the Port side flap track faring, caused by Anti-Aircraft flak. This was definitely an aircraft that was shot at in flight. The tail section is riddled with holes as well.
This is the easiest investigation of all time. Anyone with a basic understanding of aviation that looks at the tail pictures would know for certain the plane was shot down.
@@michaelhamm6805 agreed
Proximity fused missile according to Juan Browne.
Those holes go inward. The puncture was from outside nothing to do with internal explosion.
Any outward ones are probably on the other side, in one and out the other
And outward on the other side. There is a video of that too out now. Yes
@@foobarf8766 exactly! It was the exit projections of the shrapnels
This would account for cabin decompression and oxygen mask deployment shown in other online videos taken onboard this aircraft at a much higher altitude.
If the engine exploded that would hit the fuselage from the outside, but I've never seen one before that has such regular holes. You're usually looking and at tears of various sizes rather than more rounded holes.
On the other hand it seems they weren't getting problems until they got to the other coast, that said you might go radio silent if someone had just shot at you and if hydraulic fluid was leaking slightly it may take times to start affecting the controls.
Retired aircraft engineer here....damage clearly from an explosion and not from engine failure.....missile for sure
Thats how IRANIAN helicopter carrying PM of Iran was Down too
@@charlesadkins5332 ship launched anti aircraft missile
And the size of most of the holes is uniform. plus same sized holes littered throughout the Cabin and passenger sections. If it was a bird strike, that bird must have eaten a few Grenades and had some poop issues. (NOT)
Put the blame on the Embraer is clearly a lack of sense. Embraer plames are one of the few good things brasil produces.
@@charlesadkins5332 confirmed to be a direct hit by missiles from Russia air defences through Reuters news agency
Blancolirio is reporting that it looks like the aircraft took a missile strike in the aft fuselage/tail area. The aircraft lost all three hydraulic systems due to complete fluid loss, which is why there were no flaps or spoilers seen deployed before landing. The aircraft was also engaged in phugoid oscillations on flight tracking, having also lost primary controls such as the elevators, ailerons, rudder. The landing gear was down, but it can be deployed with no hydraulics. Video from the aircraft cabin before the crash shows shrapnel damage to the cabin walls and other items plus the auto-deploy oxygen masks were down, indicating the cabin had depressurized well before the landing/crash.
The burning bush has posted.
@lesb3481
100% I just can't understand the last few seconds why she pitched the way she did, if they had more height they could have corrected that problem, it wasn't a stall, seemed more like a rudder problem I'm not sure
@bob-seek-destroy-sd1708 Right, pitch is not affected by yaw...
@JSFGuy true, whatever went wrong in the last few seconds she banked too much and I don't think the pilots had enough height to correct the situation and took the chance and went for it, the plane seemed controllable for much of the emergency, everything seemed engineered correctly till whatever went wrong the last few seconds I just cannot understand how the plane wasn't at horizontal level on approach
@@bob-seek-destroy-sd1708 they had no hydraulic fluid lift. They couldn't move the flight surfaces anymore. They were steering only with engine thrust. They did the best they could they lost the fight. Look up any of the documentaries about United flight 232. Different causation, exact same result
Bird strick come on let's stop it. They must be metal birds
the birds were packin
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
Yes, a flock of metal birds dispatched inside a missile head
@@Traveloneglobal was done by Russian anti aircraft weapon or missiles confirmed by Reuters
@@Matt-rw9pyI think they can, but in this case it wasn't a good thing to do. If you dump fuel you lose power, and if you lose power, you are gliding. They wouldn't have been able to make that last roll maneuver without power that allowed it to not hit the ground head-on which would've killed everybody. I suppose the pilots were choosing between a fiery crash that could save some people or complete disintegration that would've killed everybody.
Being a former USMC Hawk Missile Crewman I know a thing or two about this and that plane was hit with a Anti-Aircraft Missile taking out all 3 Hydraulic systems controlling the flight controls , the pitching was the loss of the elevators the flaps were not lowered the spoilers not extended and the shrapnel caused tearing inward whereas a Ox bottle would cause outward bending and we know the engines were being used to steer the aircraft so both were operating , Also there is damage to both sides of the aircraft as seen in the interior video by a passenger so it wasn't a engine
Semper Fi
This happened over 1000km away from Ukraine in unrestricted international airspace...
@@eat_ze_bugsNo, the plane initially flew near Grozny and it could have been hit there.
@@Codehead3 Grozny is still over 900km away from the front lines. That's like the distance between Ukraine and Germany.
Do you know that there are still dozens of planes flying around that same airspace right now? Not everything that happens in or near Russia is about the Ukraine-Russia war. I'm not surprised people like you and the media take every opportunity possible to make this about war to stroke your egos.
Maybe the birds in Gozny have RADAR proximity fuses, who can say
No. Planes with exploded engines don't do figure-8s (they'd be turning one direction only). And, engine failures don't cause phugoid cycles (that's hydraulic loss, not engine loss). And, non-tail engine failures can't sever all hydraulics (UAL-232 was due to a tail-mounted engine fan blade breaking and severing all 3 hydraulic lines where they converge in the tail). And, shrapnel traveling from an under-wing engine to a tail would have carved long groves, not tiny perfectly-circular punctures; only objects traveling perpendicular to the axis of an airplane can cause that. This plane was clearly shot down by a missile; I could tell that from a single one-second glance at those tiny circular in-curved holes in the tail.
Das verdana Orc! (PROPAGANDA)
How do you know it wasn't caused by an exploding drone ? Why does it have to be a missile ? Pretty shitty targeting if it was.
@@iRelevant.47.system.boycottdrones don't travel at mach 1. Their max speed is 100 mph
@@iRelevant.47.system.boycottmissiles strike the most radar reflecting part on a plane, on most plane it is the tail. Missile functioned perfectly and shot down the airliner
@@iRelevant.47.system.boycott Drones are not designed for destroying aircraft and therefore have a different type of explosive device. The explosion of an anti-aircraft missile ejects special metal fragments designed to cause maximum damage to the aircraft. The missile does not have to hit the aircraft, but is fired through a special fuse near the aircraft.
As an AME who has worked on Embraer 190's, this was definitely not an engine failure. It was shrapnel damage that took out all the hydraulics.
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
Thank you for your input. That was my guess too. In all the air crash shows, it takes about this long (a few mins) to lose hydraulics. Do you think they hand-cranked the gear down? What is your take on the Blancholirio video? Are there other parts of the plane that you can hand-crank into position?
@@KathrynsWorldWildfireTracking You can kinda 'hand crank' the gear to unlock it, making it fall down due to gravity and lock into position.
@Matt-rw9py Nobody can answer such a stupid question. Try a little thinking and you'll see!
@Matt-rw9py large aircraft can; because they can't land with a full fuel load. Smaller ones like this one can land. As far as an accident, the fuel load wouldn't make any difference because you have to have some fuel, and what you also have, no matter the fuel load, is vapor. The vapor is what is explosive.
Do you REALLY believe that "engine explosion" really caused that kind of tail section damage? The aircraft was shoot down by missile defense. Period.
Why is missile not seen on the video? Is it invisible?
@@borincod Nobody with any sense is claiming that the plane was hit by an antiair missile as it was coming in to land. Flight data proves that the pilots heroically managed to keep the plane in the air for about 20 minutes after it was hit. I'm sure there *is* a record on the missile homing in on the plane and detonating, but there's no way the Russian military is going to make that public.
@@allanmason3201 was the bird also planted by the Russian military in front of an engine?
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
@@borincod What, while coming in to land? That's not when you fire an AA missile, silly.
It looks like she lost hydraulics and thrust, I think the pitch at the end was uncontrollable and the pilots didn't have enough height to correct the problem it's sad however the pilots did a great job with the conditions they were under, RIP to the pilots and those that died
Pitch is controllable with thrust, but it has to be phased correctly due to the phugoid mode / motion.
Many onboard were putin-loving russians though so there's that.
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
@@Matt-rw9py Yes the smaller, narrow-body planes do not have fuel jettison systems. They circle airports / landing sites in emergencies. (To burn off fuel.) Big planes carry so much fuel, it is _impossible_ for them to land fully fueled. They are too heavy - it would collapse their landing gear. So, they can dump it for emergencies, by design.
That's why, on radio, big planes say "Swiss Air Flight 805, heavy , with you." Greeting the Air Traffic Control that way reminds them of their special needs.
@Matt-rw9py they lost hydraulics and used thrust to control the pitch. Had they dumped fuel the plane would've just nose dived and killed everyone
The real story is the flight path. If the pilots chose to fly to Kazakhstan so Russia couldn't lie about what happened, that was one final brilliant move of theirs.
@@jaketheauroran Russia can put a lot of pressure on Kazakhstan, and already has in other circumstances.
@@johngraham245yes but the pictures are there and the witness reports also. You wouldn't have that if they tried to land in Russia.
Russia's hope was that the plane would go down in the Caspian Sea, _not_ that it would land in "Kuh-ZOCK-uh-stan", as the host idiotically pronounced it.
The only thing pilots were thinking was how to save human lives, unlike people who come up with crazy speculations.
Bro stop the bs... In that situation pilots had no time to think in politics and make conclusions they were doing their best to save themselves and passengers i bet they died and had no idea of what really happens to the plane
Regardless of what the cause of this tragic outcome is,...the undeniable fact, _IS_ ; the *_PILOT_* and *_CO-PILOT_* , are *_HEROES_* !! RIP to those who perished, and a _HUGE_ ,... *Bravo Zulu* to the pilot & co-pilot!!
The Pilot was retirering after few weeks.
Imagine what a miracle that the back of the plane survived the crash and landed in Kazakstan, so russia cannot hide the evidence
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
@ they did . Thats why nearly half of passengers made it alive.
@@rustemceferov9361 So why was there a big fireball seen when the plane touched the ground?
My heart goes out to the families
Do you know people on the plane ?
If not why does your heart go out to them ?
You do realise that tens of thousands of people die everyday around the world. Does your heart go out to them or is it just because this is news...
It's the same nonsense in the uk when a child is abducted and killed.. people feel all sympathetic.
Why ?
In the UK many children are killed weekly or abducted. Approximately 75k children are reported missing each year. Out of them around 18% are never seen again..
People assume it's an extremely rare event. When it's not.
Was thinking about that, also @Kelly. Most folks on holiday, looking forward to seeing loved ones...heartbreaking for them!
That's shrapnel damage caused by a Russian Buk ground-to-air missile. The Buk missiles are packed with shrapnel and are designed to explode next to the aircraft riveting it with holes and severing electrical & hydraulic lines. This is just like Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 that was also shot down by the Russians 10 years ago.
You can't possibly say that with such certainty since MOST anti-air missiles use fragmentation warheads. The AIM-9X uses a fragmenting warhead. The Russians have Pantsirs, Tor-M1s etc.
The shrapnel in this instance is a different shape from the MH-17 shoot-down. The MH-17 shrapnel was bowtie shape, about 3" long, and this is round. So, a missile but not the same weapons system that shot down MH-17
I'd bet you dollars to donuts that in future history the U.S. Administration will be proven responsible - just like the Nordstream Pipeline ;)
@@the_lost_navigator but this is nothing like the Nordstream Pipeline really, as that was an explicit strategic goal of the US admin. And the evidence is all secret.
@@the_lost_navigator - Over the Caspien??? You can keep your dollars and donuts; you'll need them for your psychiatrist.
Translation : There was no reason to divert from Grozny that included either weather or technology. The plane could have landed itself in zero visibility. Yet, it crashed on the other side of an entire Sea with shrapnel holes in it's tail. Gosh. We can't figure it out.
@@kurtisengle6256 no GPS and no airport assist landing tools, airport was area control for the Tu-35's launching missiles at Kyiv on Christmas morning. Yeah your right, not hard to figure out
@@crazylocha2515 What the fuck is a "Tu-35"? Because there certainly isn't a Russian aircraft called a "Tu-35". Are you trying to say "Su-35", or "Tu-95"?
@@crazylocha2515 Have you always been mentally deficient or is it something new?!
the russian AA region commander has some nervous talks with moscow now🧐
A big hole in the TAIL INSISTED THAT IS WAS HIT BY SOME OF SHRAPNEL COME FROM DIRECT HIT BY A MISSILE
Saying the altitude and airspeed were erratic isn't the correct word. The aircraft was going through a phugoid motion, which is usually caused by the inability to use the elevator. A phugoid is an exchange between potential and kinetic energy and looks like a sinusoidal curve or rollercoaster.
It can be damped with correctly phased thrust inputs.
Such a motion is understandable if the tail area was damaged by a missile near hit. The shrapnel damage would explain that.
Bingo! Smart person alert.
Can anyone explain to me why planes are unable to release the fuel when they’re in emergency? It would make the emergency landing less fiery and would save more lives.
@@major__kongI suspect this is exceptionally difficult to pull off
Birdstrike?
What plane (t) are you on?
What birds remains after being sucked through an engine can pepper a tail and stabaliser with so many holes?
Engines dont explode backwards but radially into the wing or adjoining fuselage.
And that panel probably got blown out by a bird strike? Unlikely.
How about rapid/ explosive decompression?
I thought this channel is conversant with aircraft so I would have thought you would know better because the victims deserve better reporting standards, like getting the countries name right.
My sympathies to all concerned.
True, and people ignore the fact that several of those holes are on the side. So even if an engine violently exploded any holes caused by that debris would be to the front of the stabilizers, not the sides. Because physics. But some people seem to just ignore that.
The birds with RADAR proximity fuses, obviously
bomb on board? blew rear access door open?
@@Taketimeout3 and with birds you usually see some bl00d from the birds
@@zapador There are too many holes and they are distributed relatively evenly, which rules out an exploding engine. In addition, they would have to be of different sizes.
The plane was shot down
Imagine what a miracle that the back of the plane survived the crash and plane landed in Kazakstan, so russia cannot hide the evidence
Evidence? Or just your political "hunch".
Evidence is wasted on a Russian
@@decoherence926 The plane was shot down by Rµssia.
@@decoherence926well the plane was the evidence. However it is looking more and more likely that Air defence systems may have downed the plane.
I am one of the passenger who survived this crash and i thank God for saving my life. I didn't know that the plane was going to crash until 1 minutes before it started to drop. It was a horrifying experience...i feel so sad for those who died...i saw so many burnt up bodies and many more bodies without their limbs...
Здоровья вам 🙏🏻
Miracles do exist!🙏🙏 You have a great story from your life!✍
The bird strike story was Russian disinformation propaganda. It was shot down by a surface to air missile fired by Russian air defences. The Russians had jammed all signals in order to cover the launch of an missile and drone attack on Ukraine, and that's why the airliner disappeared from radar. It re-appeared when it got out of the jammed zone, but by that time it had already been hit, with the pilots trying to control the aircraft which had lost all of its hydraulic systems. They were able to get the gear down using the manual gear lowering system, but they were unable to deploy flaps. It seems that for the most part, they were trying to establish some directional control over the aircraft using differential thrust from the two engines, much like the DC-10 which crashed in Sioux City, IA a few decades ago. Sadly, both pilots lost their lives in their heroic struggle to save their aircraft, and the lives of the people on board.
This was an unnecessary shootdown of a civilian aircraft, and not the first which can be attributed to the rather incompetent Russian military. Do not believe them when they say it was a bird strike. The damage to the surviving tail section, in addition to video taken by people on board the aircraft definitively prove otherwise.
No. It was shot down by an F16 supplied by the collective west and operated by Ukraine under orders by Zelensky.
The plurality of deceased were Russian
An F-16 that was 700 kilometers over Russian airspace? What does that say about your air defenses, comrade?
I heard Ukraine did it accidentally just like MH17
I heard it was Ukraine who shot it down
Looks like AIR Burst damage from a missile near miss
From you or someone else?
@@JSFGuy From Russia.
@@christianbenzinger770 where the impact occurred on I would be skeptically taking their report of what happened and it turns out that's not true. Up to this point that's all we have. New information rolls in as it always does so we can't speculate too much based on that, more on what we see and I have not seen a good video based on this shaky wind blown BS posted stamp flip phone quality video that we've all seen up to this point.
@@JSFGuy there's a very remote possibility that an expendable sea drone armed with an AAM, like how the Ukrainians a year ago fielded a boat drone with an AA-11 on it. But to transport such a weapon to the Caspian Sea and conduct the attack and disappear without being detected seems extremely far-fetched
This is not a miss. Air defence missiles are equipped with proximity fuses since WW2. The idea is to explode a fragmentation grenade near the aircraft rather than hitting it directly. SHORAD anti aircraft guns use timed fragmentation projectiles that are timed and aimed to disintegrate in the flightpath of the aircraft, such that it flies into a cloud of small tungsten bullets.
Clearly a shootdown.
Clearly an idiot!
the shrapnel on the tail section is 110% caused by a munition. wild guess; the plane was mistakenly shot down by air defence system.
I think you could be correct. A mistake. Mistakes happen.
@@tjcint Kinda weird coincidence for it to happen mere days after the US Navy accidentally shoots down one of their own fighters, though
@@bronco5334 How infested are you by the Putin/Hitler narrative ?
@@tjcint How infested are you by the Ucraini Kockaine/Selensky narrative ?
Why was the door blown open? Was there a bomb there
9:44 Looks like the damage on MH-17.
Thought the same thing
Except the shrapnel holes are round and not bow tie shape.
@@JustaPilot1 i dont know where you looked some of the shrapnel shape do look bow tie.
@@Klote3241 If you do not know, why are you writing? Google before saying anything.
@@Kokopilau77no!MH17 was down by BUK,E109 was shot by a smaller missile,posible Pantsir AA rocket!
Sir, the more you say in the duration of the video the more you discredit yourself. The plane was shot down, only you believe the engine had a catastrophic failure!
This guy probably got told to "say this".
The airplane was shot down, so what is the purpose of stretching this video with irrelevant information such as weather, ILS procedure, how much thrust the engines are producing, or when the airport was built.????
Is this the first you're hearing of this?
Nobody knows yet Bill Nye the science guy.
Ask yourself who is jamming the GPS over the Caspian Sea and why?
The Russians, because they are trying to disrupt the GPS guidance systems of Ukranian cruise missiles and attack drones.
There is precisely zero motive for the Russians to deliberately shoot this airliner, and GPS jamming isn't an attempt to destroy airliners.
and why is the tail section 0.5 kms away drom the rest of the plane..
Holes in the tails are not done by lack of GPS😂 it might be sabotage by Ukraine intelligence 😢
and what do you expect when flying in a war zone,
@@alberthenriette8976 like they did with MH17
I'm surprised you can't tell what brought this down despite all the photo's you provide.
Show respect to the families of the victimes by stopping the ridiculous claim of bird strike at high altitude.
Stop turning an blind eye to the dozens of holes in the tail section.
Stop be ridiculous !!
Respect to the pilots and every family involved in this tragedy. Russia must start taking responsibility for their actions.
Sorry Dan, you really missed this one. Need to learn correct pronunciation as well. Not one of your better reports imo...
I don't buy any uncontained engine explosion scenario -- whether bird strike or otherwise -- because if that was the case, the airplane would have only had one remaining good engine, and they would never have been able to vary thrust to change the flight path. That airplane had too good engines to the very end.
That's what I was thinking
Bingo. They were controlling the flight via the engines. Ailerons and flaps were not in position. They introduced drag by going gear-down very early, to try to slow, and wrestled hard to find that sweet spot in between stalling, and going slow as possible for a gentler landing. Doesn't it look like the _did_ stall in the start of the video? When they started to dive? They recovered it. Incredible. God bless those pilots.
Actually it looks more like anti aircraft missile shrapnel on the tail end. It was "roller coastering" as in a loss of tail controls. There was a drone attack near Grozny prior to the aircraft possibly targeted by Russian anti aircraft assets.
As an Azerbaijani i can day this was tragic
It was obviously shot down. No need for an expert!
Well, you certainly aren't qualified to comment!
Why would a plane that is over 1000km away from a warzone be shot down? Plenty of other airlines fly in that same airspace...
@@eat_ze_bugs It was shot down by Rµssia.
@@eat_ze_bugs Common sense right there!
@@eat_ze_bugs Your comment does not age well.
Accident? What’s wrong with you?
Ex aircraft engineer. No attempt was made to flare suggesting that either the crew were incapacitated/dead or the control systems were out of action.
News is covering up the fact this plane was shot down, as for why thats still a strange mystery
@@leokimvideo its pretty obvious only russian maga heads are “skeptical”
Because they can't see how predictable it is that in a 27.3 billion year old universe, we are no longer likely to be the only intelligent species flying drones and manned craft on this planet. Accidents won't just be caused by human technology.
Man you got to get your pronunciations right before producing vids. It's a real bad look. Oh and that damage around the tail end? Clearly the aircraft was the victim of a prox fused shrapnel filled missile.
Exactly
Like search UA-cam for how to pronounce Kazakhstan. Just shows ignorance towards an important part of the world. Correct pronunciation also shows respect to the people and cultures who live their lives there.
Anyone that’s seen Borat would know how to say it.
Totally agree. Kazakhstan with stress on the first syllable. No alternative pronunciation.
Not to mention that saying the plane crashed "near Kazakhstan," is like saying it crashed "near Texas." Kazakhstan is a country, not a city.
deep respect to crew and their commitment to do their best to ensure the safest outcome possible due to circumstances even though they knew being up front in a crash wasn't very good odds for themselves for survival. these men and women deserve to be honored in their commitment to try and ensure maximum passenger safety and are a credit to their profession and humanity in these times
AP Mechanic familiar with Embraer here, a few corrections:
The flap system of the 190 is electrically driven, not hydraulic. And the emergency Ram Air Turbine is not deployed indicating that they were not in electrical emergency configuration. The flaps not being deployed must've been for a different reason. It's possible they jammed or when commanded, and defaulted to latched in whatever position they were in, or some other mechanical jam. Considering the flight path, I'm more inclined to believe they were never deployed to maintain speed.
The Hydraulic 3 bay access door on the aft right is also the exhaust for cabin pressure, hence the mesh square in the middle. The shrapnel damage to the tail may have ruptured the aft pressure bulkhead such that it over loaded the bay as all the cabin pressure tried to escape into that compartment, or the nitrogen pressurized accumulator in that compartment for HYD3, or the Fire Extinguisher Bottles that may be stored in that compartment for the APU, and broke the door open in some manner. The latches are designed such that that could happen, and they appear to still be attached to the door side in all six locations. If the video wasn't so blurry we could see if they ripped out through the skin, or of the latches did actually shear off and it's not visible.
A thousand thanks for that insight.
If this helps, I noticed in another longer video, right before the final right bank nose dive leading to the crash, the E190 were level so I could outline right wing flaps canoe fairings on the fuzzy sky background : they were extended (angled down to the back) way beyond that a take off configuration position. Not sure the flaps were fully deployed, or nearly fully deployed, but my understanding is the canoe are mechanically binded to the extension position. If they're pointing down, the flaps are extended (since le blurry footage doesn't let us assert the information by directly looking at the flaps).
Also, the flaps may have a different shade from the rest of the wing, however, when deployed, inner and outer flaps on the same wing have different tilting angles. Therefore, at some point in the footage and over the course of different attitudes, they should have different shades if they are deployed, despite not having clear outline of their shape. And.. it's the case here. I'm pretty sure flaps are deployed.
As wether they worked properly or defaulted to the last extension position, FDR will be the one to tell.
(sorry, I'm not versed in the appropriate vocabulary, not an expert, and english is only my third tongue)
@@StephenKarl_IntegralI've seen that footage, it's difficult to tell. The canoe fairings are yes mechanically articulated by the drive motors. If the hanging piece we see wasn't just the lading gear, which would be at the right pointed down angle and what I think it actually is, it's possible it was damaged. From passenger footage on the left side at least one other canoe was damaged there, so it's also possible it was broken downward, but I doubt that. Aerodynamic forces would push the canoe back up at that speed. They are composite material and very light. I think the hanging bit is just the main landing gear with bad visibility.
You may be confusing the flap/slat with the spoilers. The E190 does have spoilers on the top middle of the wing with independent control to the flaps. The spoilers have outer and inner sections that also are separate, but the flaps and slats are all mechanically linked the full length of the wing. The whole wings flap system stops if they have any problem anywhere. The spoilers are hydraulically powered while the slat/flaps are electric powered. The inboard spoilers only work on ground as speed brakes, they need a signal from the landing gear having weight on them to work at all. The outboard spoilers can assist the ailerons and work always. The different color we see could be the hydraulics leaking from the wing which is common, but also possibly part of the accident damage. Like you say, no way to know right now.
Yes the Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder will be very good to have. Fortunately one of them should be in that tail section that broke off and we should get good data from it. I hear both were recovered.
Dropping flaps could cause the nose to pitch down, which would be catastrophic considering they appear to have had no pitch control.
@@bronco5334 They would have had engines and stab trim left if they lost all 3 systems. The stab trim was likely not fast enough to keep up with the pitch change from the flap extension, maybe why it pitched down at the end.
@bronco5334 correct, which is why as I've stated it is not my belief they were ever commanded. I'm just a mechanic, the pilots would've had better skill and knowledge of what they were dealing with.
We have to wonder from your statement if your analysis is biased. People in the comments section are being honest. You appear to be protecting the real culprits by talking about a birdstrike!!!
The video narrator doesn't seem knowledgeable. The entire world knew this plane was shot down at the time he posted his video. The evidence was a clear cut as can be. Not "bizarre."
"Alleged" holes. This guy is bought & Paid for. Take notes of who he is -- AND NEVER BELIEVE HIM AGAIN !!! PROPAGANDA!!!!
Have you read the transcripts of the pilots communications + black boxes ?
As a former military aviator and SAM expert I would say that the damage to the fuselage and tail is absolutely typical of a missile proximity fuse detonating somewhere adjacent to the rear fuselage. From the images supplied it's not a large one but a point-defence radar-guided system such as SA-19 or 22, Tunguska/Pantsir, would fit. Such a weapon could easily cause depressurisation and sever critical hydraulics. I see no indication of an engine failure. A bird strike can be ruled out. The crew make turns in both directions and appear to be using differential power for control, in the absence of tail hydaulics. In any case a bird would be very unlikely to cause uncontained failure and even an uncontained engine failure would not cause damage to the tail. No, I'd say this was definitely a shoot-down, again!
It was diverted alright, by a Russian proximity fused defense missile. Not a bird strike!! The holes are imploded, not exploded. Shrapnel.
According to
The shrapnel clearly enters on one side of the tail and exits on the other.
@@YayComity as stated according to this video or someone else's? Are you getting ahead of the video?
@@JSFGuyaccording to common sense 😂
I’ve watched a few videos of this crash now and it was no accident. I support Russia over Ukraine but I’m not going to say that it wasn’t a Russian missile or that it was justified in any way.
@@JSFGuy You dont need to be an expert to recognize shrapnel damage mate. its as clear as day that plane was shot down. A bird strike doesn't cause damage like that.
Those are 100% holes from fragments from a missile. You are not going to have holes in the article stabilizer (Rudder) like that from anything else. These missiles have a proximity fuse, meaning that they get close to the aircraft and explode sending high velocity fragments into the aircraft in a wide pattern. I served in the USAF for 40 years and worked combat damage on aircraft and I could tell right off that this was damage caused by a weapon, missile or anti aircraft artillery (AAA), That open access door on the aft end of the fuselage probably happened when it got hit. Again, this aircraft was shot down and the most likely culprit is a Russian anti aircraft missile battery.
How on earth can an uncontained engine failure make serious sharpnel deep punctures on the side of the vertical stablizer? This has to be a clear case of explosive damage using heat signature missile. There was no hydraulic support and the plane was clearly out of control and way too fast because of the loss of hydraulics and no slats and flaps. Even the gears would have been extended manually. The plane was being steered using engines. These brave pilots lost their lives but still managed to save 25 people. RIP all departed souls 😢😢😢
The amount of puncture wounds in the tail section clearly show the fragments has hit from outside and penetrated the skin of the tail section. The amount of holes seem to indicate a bit more than an exploding engine and if the airplane lost all hydraulics, the airplane would have crashed much earlier if they had lost one engine since it would be impossible to control the airplane with only one engine and no hydraulics.
The damages to the tail section seems to indicate that the airplane was hit by fragments from a ground to air missile of probably a smaller type.
This does not look like to have been an accident caused by any equipment attached or on board the airplane.
It was 1000% shot down. Its not even a question. The holes on the tail are shrapnel from anti air missles. It explodes near the object and shoots shrapnell into the plane.
Ukraine has struck at the Russian Caspian Sea Fleet in Makhachkala with long range drone twice in the last two months. The Russians were caught flat footed both times. This is just up the coast from Baku and near the turn for approach into Grozny. So very conceivable that a spooked air defense team, in low visibility fired on a target they could not visually verify, not wishing to get caught off guard again. The radar presentation and Mode III IFF should have been an indication that it was not a drone.
I dont think it could be an Anti aircraft missile as the weather conditions would have hampered the capabilities of the radar systems providing guidance. also the weather conditions are not good for Ukrainians to be launching drones under such conditions.
The Pantsir's IFF is also a separate vehicle/module in some models, according to Wikipedia, so maybe it had none at all (and were relying on ADSB etc and what did they jam...)
Always a bad idea to fly a civilian aircraft in or close to a war zone (as Iran Air flight 655 shows). Azerbaijan airlines should have stopped all flights into this region of Russia. Not only because of possible aa action but also because there is danger of colliding with an Ukrainian drone. I am surprised by the nonchalance of these airlines. The pilots too should have had second thoughts about flying into this region of Russia.
@@wkgurr There is a false assumption amongst US military planners that once a region is in conflict commercial carriers will wisely cease operations. History says otherwise. I was on the US Naval Staff in the Persian Gulf between the time the USS Stark was kit by an Exocet missile and The USS Vincennes shootdown of the Iran Air flight. What I observed was that the pattern of life continued, despite increasing threats and attacks - both commercial shipping and airlines. But insurance rates skyrocketed. Profit, I am sure was a motivation and these carriers played the odds.
The Embraer plane was clearly shot down...
Looks like shrapnel from an external source. Some of that damage even looks like bullet holes from outside to inside the plane.
If you're wondering what misinformation looks like, this entire video is what misinformation looks like.
No, it's what legitimate systematic inquiry looks like.
the infamous 9K37 Buk Gadfly bird strike I see
😂😂😂🎉❤
Birds with RADAR proximity fuses
The open access panel is deigned to blow open in the event of a depressurisation. It is a safety system to prevent / minimise damage to the rear fuselage outsize the pressurised parts.
Kah-Zak-Stan.
Pri-ori-ties.
Bloody typical American ! Have you heard how they pronounce Notre Dame ?? Noter Daym.
He is American. His knowledge on everything else is profound but it is hard for the rest of the world to understand how ANYBODY who has any interest in Ukraine/ Russian war is unable to say a countries name properly.
Is that he is not interested or take any interest in a war going for 3 full years?
Yes it's not important but it doesn't inspire confidence.
@@Taketimeout3 American propensity for belligerence is also profound.
I'm a retired military pilot. Those holes can have only one origin, an explosion + shrapnel coming from the side... like a missile. Not a wing-mounted engine. Just impossible.
No, sorry, you are so wrong!
Look at the shrapnel holes at the back, there is no way even a disintegrating engine could cause that! Plus the pilots reported loss of control after a "bang", they could then only steer with differential thrust, how is that possible if one of the engines had an issue?
It was shot down and it was shot down by the Russians, end of story, now go and do some more research....
I spent many years flying military drones including target drones, I know what shrapnel damage looks like....
By looking at these images, it's clear Russian air defense missile destoryed the airplane.
It was shot down
Whatever it was, it was definitely an external explosion, as u can see the holes on the fuselage are inward and not outward.
This is why I watch Blancolirio. He knows what he is talking about. You are way off the mark. Shrapnel in the tail from an engine failure!!? You are purely speculating.
It took a SAM hit. Period. Look at the disribution of the shrapnel damage. Proximity detonation.
I'm no expert but the denting around the holes goes inward not out.
Yet more proof that the back of the plane is always the safest!
I believe they flew to Kazachstan because the pilots realized they were being targeted in Russia, it was reported that a drone attack by Ukraine happened in the region of Chechnya, so Russian air defense might have mistaken the aircraft as a enemy
The flew to Kazachstand because the airport there is in an unpopulated area on very flat terrain without obstacles. Grozny or their departure airport are surrounded by towns and are in hilly areas.
It has already been reported that a Russian anti-aircraft missile system hit the passenger aircraft. There is no significant physical evidence to indicate that landing would have been an actual problem, unless you get hit with a missile, cannot control the aircraft and are desperately looking for options like vast flat land. The previous reporting on problems with visibility or other atmospheric conditions seems to be a distraction from the truth.
The official channel is saying that it was a bird strike, but there’s shrapnel damage, and the GPS data was being jammed…
Shrapnel damage could be from an engine tearing itself apart during a bird strike. Would be the correct side of the aircraft and impact locations. Not saying it wasn't a Russian missile but there are other possibilities. We know the Russians have shoy down other aircraft before including Malaysian Flight 17 10 years ago.
The engines were fine. You can hear them functioning smoothly on one of the videos of the crash. Besides shrapnel damage is a very specific type of damage.
I believe it was an accident as Russia thought it was a drone from Ukraine, given that it was coming from the same direction Ukraine has been sending drones from, including today. As I say, I think it was misidentified on radar rather than a malicious act.
The bird strike hypothesis seemed to be the first thought of the crew, possibly because there was windshield damage. They may not have realized at first it was a missile. They did a heroic job bringing the aircraft down near the airport, in a place where no one on the ground would be hurt, where passengers had a chance to survive, and thankfully some did. Th pilots are heroes. The details must be investigated and the culprits held responsible.
@@YayComity 💯
It's a crash, not an accident.
this plane has been shot down - look at all the shrapnel holes in it's tailplane and fin that does not come from an engine failure .....go check the pictures !!
You are not in aviation, it is clear by your conclusion.
@@eat_ze_bugs and you obviously have not checked out other videos showing shrapnel holes clearly visible in the tailplane and rudder -and any idiot can tell what trajectory physics tell you - these can NOT have been induced by an engine failure...go check Denys Davydovs video...
@@graantmnz This plane crashed and exploded on impact, and here you are thinking you're such a smart**s believing it was shot at because there were some holes in the wreckage. Only an idiot would make baseless accusations without any concrete evidence from investigators.
It always much more painful at this time of year. I appreciate your compassion. Your 🎄🎄 are so lovely!
don't be surprised if the FDR/CVR goes missing somehow, or they will say the both were consumed by the fire even though the tail is almost intact.
No, they were recoverd alright.
If you look closely at the front-on video, you can see the head of the plane breaks off. Only the center burns, from what i can tell.
@@Nbolanos0624 Unfortunately we cannot rely on the official investigation. We will see if the FDR and CVR go to Russia and whether Embraer is satisfactorily involved (noting even Brazil cannot be trusted in the circumstances).
The Blancolirio channel offers an excellent, more sober evidence based and up to date analysis of air accidents.. Has already produced a preliminary overview.
A thorough factual report with no extraneous suppositions. I agree with the conclusions of other Commenters, looks like missile shrapnel damage.
dude, just stop.
Shrapnel with what appears to have entered the empennage at a near 90 degrees, could not happen from an engine having exploded. Gotta call Bravo Sierra on the bird strike/engine disintegration theory. Most likely cause was an exterior explosion aft and subsequent hydraulic failure.
GPS jamming in that region is very well known. ADS-B relies on GPS for accurate reporting.
The holes are going into the plane not coming out ......
Um. A missle? Pretty obvious
NO engine explosion!! Engines are wing mounted and holes are in the stabilizers and aft part of cabin !!! Both engines are running. An engine failure would only harm ONE of the hydraulic systems.
An engine explosion caused shrapnel damage to all the tail surfaces? Give it up already.
There is no İLS approach for Grozny. They had to execute NDB approach.
...did my stint based at BIAP 20 yrs ago, plenty of aircraft returned with damage after having been shot at with SAM missiles, and those holes peppering the tailplane are 100% shrapnel and not from a turbine throwing a blade. The shrapnel took out the hydraulics and made the plane virtually impossible to control... Poor folks on board...
Same sort of holes found in the MH-17 wreckage. Missile shoot down.
From the propaganda, I suspect the same perpetrator.
The holes in the rear section tailplane are consistent with the appearance of fragmentation rod impacts from a SAM warhead detonation. It was very obviously shot down.
if they lost engine because of bird strike it shouldn't be like that, it's not even slowing down towards ground
Too much shrapnel. Shot down.
Feel bad for the loss of family and friends. If I were living in that part of the world, I’d rather drive or take a train to get somewhere. New reports out that the Russians shot it down. Most notably, that area has been notamed off limits for air carriers of a few countries.
Azerbaijani here. Believe or not, our airlines have considerably better safety records than the majority of the carriers you Americans fly on.
Old Boeings are better. Nice to know that Azerbaijani planes are well maintained. New reports that this one was shot down by Russians. They shoot down their own planes. That area is off limits to several countries to fly over.
10:30 ".....we extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of those who lost their lives...." OK, now that I've ignored my family on this festive holiday, thanks for watching the video so I can capitalize on the crash through monetized videos and tell you exactly what will be told on broadcast news stations.
At least pronounce the name of the country properly !
Are you also worried about what pronouns to use for the victims?
Those wholes in the fuselage originated from the outside.
Caspian Post a minor point I can't explain is that in flight it appeared that hatch in the rear was hanging down, but it's position after the crash makes it seem like the hinge was in a location where that wouldn't have happened.
I'm reminded of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014. That was a ground to air missile fitted with a proximity fuze. Pattern of perforations on tail section here suggests a similar event. Maybe it's time to abandon all attempts at civil aviation from Western Ukraine to the Caspian Sea.
Who shot down the plane?
Putin
Nobody knows (except maybe the intelligence agencies). But everyone is happy to instantly blame Russia. Just like when the Nordstream pipeline was destroyed.
@@Somun-ahello, Putin bot. Not your fault, sure bud
@@Somun-anice to see that objective and sensible people still exist 👍🏼
No one, it was an accident.
Danke für ihre gute und professionelle Erklärung.
Thank you for your good and professional explanation.
Oxygen masks wouldn't he deployed at that height as they would still be in thick air under flight level 1-00 I don't believe it was decompression from the footage
Azerbaijani media just confirmed that the plane was shot down by Russians‼️Let all those people who died in this crash rest in peace!
There is no mystery here - A Pantsir (Панцирь) S2 missile launcher. Russia strike civilian plane again - 2010, 2014 and 2024.