Check out our report on the Washington DC crash about use of Night Vision Goggles for the Blackhawk helicopter. ua-cam.com/video/hlMTpIAlpw0/v-deo.html
Yep Sad. "I" am an American supporting those on American soil who lost their lives because someone wanted a freebie. Sad but true USA is not able to take on more problematic situations under the dumbest Biden presidential decisions! Hault air controllers who are not qualified! Hault free anything! Hault supporting "a better life" Time to fix YOUR country!
I saw photos of the pilot and co-pilot, and they look like the nicest guys you could ever meet. I'm from a family of pilots, and this broke my heart, as well. The team on board that plane were angels.
Yes God is Good Through It All , I live in California 11 miles from the Tijuana Mx Border This Disaster Impacts Mexico Just as Much as America , Canada & Other Cities The Victims Was From May They All R.I.P. .
@@lavatr8322You are right. I say it is timeline.She survive the disease but could not survive the crash that means her time was up.Remember always pray to GOD no one knows when time is up. By the way I am not American.
Have you ever had a oxygen cylinder explode Because as far as I know oxygen is not a flammable liquid or flammable gas, if oxygen could explode we all would be dead due to breathing in oxygen everyday, I have been a boilermaker since 1976 and worked with oxygen acetylene cutting apparatus basic daily until November 17, worked underground on gold mines using cutting torch as we call it and only a acetylene cylinder can explode because it's a gas, never heard of a oxygen cylinder explode
I was until November 17 and from Jan 76 a qualified boilermaker using oxygen acetylene basically everyday on South Africa gold mines, I have never heard of a oxygen cylinder explode because it's not a gas or liquid which is flammable I know oxygen is a accelerant agent to a fire, once a fire starts and oxygen cylinder is close by it could help the fire Maybe I am wrong @@MrAlcline
@@Palmstreet-u7xthat's not how oxygen works. We only breathe 20% oxygen. The rest is majority nitrogen and other gases. Wow. Did you even go to school
I am from Singapore and I am so sorry to hear of two crashes within a few days in the USA... God bless them all and God be there for those injured and are in recovery ❤
This is so horribly tragic. These professionals dedicated their lives to saving others. It is incredibly sad to hear there was a pediatric patient involved. May they all rest in peace ❤
@@jimjab3631 AMEN!! As Americans supporting those on American soil who lost their lives because someone wanted a freebie!! Sad but true USA is not able to take on more problematic situations under the dumbest Biden presidential decisions! Hault air controllers who are not qualified! Hault free anything! Hault supporting "a better life" Time to fix their own country!
Mexican registered plane. No surprises here. Our safety sucks; theirs is worse. Old plane, poorly maintained and flown by a cowboy. Sick of hearing this story. Don't believe what he says about maintaining the same standards. It actually doesn't happen in practice because the FAA is out to lunch.
Poor baby just survived a battle with a disease may she rest in paradise along with her mom and all the professionals on this plane may they RIP and on the people on the ground..
Very sad to loose a Medevac Jet with 2 doctors, 2 pilots and tragically also a critically ill pediatric patient! 😔 I have a special place in my heart for medevac crews as a medevac flight brought me my new heart for heart transplant and also I hope to do medevac for a living someday and it breaks my heart that a patient died in a crash! When a patient is put a board of medevac flight, the patient’s family expects that it will end up saving their life, not cutting it short! 😔 Still good video Dan!
@@dw13645 Add to the tragedy, a person killed in a car on the ground below along with a little girl with a major laceration to the head, a man walking around on fire, a woman running out of a bus that was hit by debris on fire, a man in a diner struck in the head by debris and house fires.
Best of luck to you from a retired firefighter/paramedic. I flew once as medic on a lifeflight chopper. That was enough, as I'm deathly afraid of heights!
As someone who is going to train to be a pilot next year in the UK this is heartbreaking. It looks to me as the planned went into an uncontrollable spin. If you watch one of the clips in 0.25x speed you can see it’s a spin. RIP to all involved 💔
Pure speculation as something this violent had not occurred before while flying with oxygen tanks. There have been in flight fires due to compressed oxygen tanks (ValueJet) but that in that crash the fire took minutes to spread throughout the cabin. This was instantaneous.
I have never seen a plane fall out of the sky like that, speed, velocity etc, not even in movies. In fact, if that scene were in a movie, it would probably have to be tweaked for looking fake and unfathomable. Rest In Peace to those souls.
AA 587 had it's tail ripped off by the co-pilot just two months after 9/11 and it crashed into Queens New York, that airplane also came down like a missile, there wasn't much left of it and several houses. It is very unfortunante that these things happen.
@@AmericaFirst-s7r Well I remember that crash because I live about 60 blocks away from where it happened, it happened around Beach 130th St, I live on Beach 77th Street, I of course did not see it, we hear planes constantly as we are in the flight path of JFK, sometimes the planes fly so low you wonder "could this be the one?", anyhow, I say all that to say, I don't remember seeing any footage of Flight 587 falling with the same velocity and speed as this last "missile" we just experienced, if you can show me footage to the contrary then I will have to rethink my position.
@AmericaFirst-s7r That plane took off right after a 747 took off. The AA jet flew into the jet wake. Co pilot of the AA jet repeatedly was pushing hard on the rudder and snapped the tail rudder off.
Another sensitive and informative report Dan. Please keep up the good work. Sending love and best wishes from Australia to all those affected by these recent tragedies.
So many say "the plane went down like a missile" but this one really did. That's one of the most insane crashes I've ever seen. Damn. Parts coming off the jet in that video wouldn't be a surprise considering the forces on the aircraft during that descent. Those won't be the cause of the crash, they are a consequence of the descent.
@ericbitzer5247 elevator breaking wouldn't cause it to decend like that. This looks like an engine failure or two causing it to stall and it rotated upside down and did a nose dive
@@clicheguevara5282 Because I wasn't replying to anyone. I was adding an edit to my comment which is the first comment in this thread. Does that fully answer the question you red cabbage?
I live about 1.5 miles from the NE Airport. The crash happened about 3 miles South of my house. There is no correlation between what happened last night here and the other night in Washington D.C. It’s a shame but stuff like this happens. God Bless all those who perished and were injured.
Both resulted from pilot error and you say they aren't related🤦♂ The FAA is out to lunch and pilot proficiency standards have plummeted. This crash is what happens when you stall a Lear Jet at low altitude. They are excessively difficult planes to fly, based on archaic technology and should all have their airworthiness certificates revoked. These planes were designed by the clown who invented the 8-track tape.
Agree with your statement about fire ball. While in Air Force watched an F 106 come down and crash off departure end of Runway 24. The fireball was quite large
Notice that at the very end of the first clip of the crash, after the man and woman have ducked back into the house and the door has closed, a piece of debris from the plane skids across the cement in the center of the scene. I had already watched this clip multiple times before I spotted this.
Funny....I also had seen that clip many times and only noticed that debris sliding across the video when I watched it on this channel. Maybe we were both seeing shortened versions of that video on other UA-cam channels.
Thank you for the quick breakdown of this horrific crash. It’s so sad to see so many crashes lately. It definitely makes people wonder what is going on for so many to be happening lately. We as a community need to really focus on staying proficient and making good decisions in the cockpit. Lest get the accident rate down. Keep up the excellent work Dan. Safe skies my friend 🇺🇸🛩️
The explosion was even more dramatic as it’s a lifeguard Flight they carry oxygen tanks normally two tanks in the trunk or the bottom of the patience stretcher. This setup is design like an ambulance. I flew AIR ambulance for seven years on a Lear 35A always have tons of oxygen on board for the patient.
No, oxygen is not explosive in the sense that it might combust even if punctured. However, if there is any spark or flame present it will burn furiously in the presence of that compressed pure oxygen.
@@jill7759 Pure speculation (which is not wise during aviation accidents) but I still think something ignited those tanks causing a violent rupture in the cabin possibly damaging exterior flight controls (horizontal stabilizer) or even igniting the fuel tanks. I know it sounds a bit “Hoolywoodish” but I don’t see how this was a simple stall and nose over.
@@Traveloneglobal No speculation involved, simple facts. Oxygen, of itself, is not flammable nor explosive. However, the cylinder contents are under extreme pressure which is why lubricants, oils etc are tightly regulated for use with such tanks. Opening valves too quickly might generate enough friction to provide ignition of anything flammable or if spark is provided by a puncture it might provide ignition of adjacent materials which will burn furiously in the presence of that oxygen. I made no guesses as to whether this might have happened, simply answered the question as to whether a tank might have exploded. It’s a fallacy that many people do believe that oxygen is flammable or explosive, it isn’t.
At least the terror of that horrific decent was not long. I have nightmares about out of control decents that last several minutes. R.I.P to all lost souls🙏😪
@@simonmiller5118 They didn't respond because they were dealing with a severe and sudden emergency. Pilots are all taught to fly the plane first. These are medivac pilots. They literally signed up to save lives. I think it is far too much of a leap for you to say something horrible like that.
The jet exploded on contact with the ground with nearly 1,000 gal of Jet-A. The 11,000 ft/min decent rate was last data point. Previous data point was 7,000’/min. Data points prior were approximately 4,000 and 1,000 feet rates of decent.
Would 11,000 f/min decent rate mean full take-off power was still engaged, and the 7k increase to 11k may be gravity? Also the bright large image may be from an oxygen explosion in the plane at its take-off height rotating the plane for its downward trajectory.
News stations with authority have not only verified the plane (fromMexico) was too old 45 yrs old. but the weight was not loaded evenly for such a small plane. SMH- How many Americans lost a life because mxcns want a freebie?
I cannot help but think of the expertise, education and dedication of those people and the loss to the community because of these accidents. People cannot be replaced, families, friends, coworkers miss them terrible and the impact on the community is a huge loss also. So very sad.
You may never know. No recorders? No mayday calls, nothing left of the jet to speak of. It sure didn't stall like people are saying. Stall speed is around 120 knots, this jet took off fast and increased speed as it was climbing. It wasn't on fire as people think either. Landing lights on is what people saw. The low cloud cover magnifyed this as well. He was sure cooking when they hit the ground. Many people thought it was a missle it was going so fast!
Pilot disorientation? It would explain the inverted dive into the ground. He was instructed to make a right turn after take off. Maybe he banked right and just kept on banking...
@@h20bp Flight radar shows he started to turn right but then the jet went left then down fast into the ground. Could be pilot disorientation but he didn't keep banking right. You would think the pilots were well trained in IFR conditions?
Private Jet carrying a child medical patient dropped down 8 mins away from me.. I literally thought someone bombed a building.. it didn’t sound like a big car crash would sound.. and 3 days ago Washington DC plane was the first commercial airplane crash in 16yrs.. 😢 wow
@@cnp215 But the statement "3 days ago Washington DC plane was the first commercial airplane crash in 16yrs" is completely wrong if you don't include the context of it being a midair collision.
@@cnp215 Then why act confused about the correction? It's an important detail that changes the entire meaning of the statement and is completely misleading to those who are unaware. It's just not that hard to admit a mistake.
Kind of what I was thinking. I’m more inclined to think that that was just the wing coming into view as the plane rolled instead of something coming off of the plane.
Incredibly tragic. The violence of the explosion on impact may be explained with the amount of fuel on board in combination with oxygene for the patient.
@ Janncfl. Exactly ! ! ! A tumbling oxygen bottle will possibly lose a valve even before impact. Hense ATF at scene to investigate. God rest the Souls of the people who died .
Dan, you have a superior channel…many thanks for all that you do to help your viewers process this chaotic time within the aviation industry. My heart is heavy for all of the families. Respectfully, Dr. Lucy
It is so scary to think that you are never safe no matter where you are. I live close to Pittsburgh airport and many times I hear planes going over and hold my breath sometimes. This is so horrible. There has to be fatalities on the ground as well. Cars burning and buildings on fire. This is Hell.
Considering the area around the airport is a heavily residential area, if a part of the plane departed we would already know about it because it would have caused damage on the ground between the runway and the crash site.
According to this video the rate of descent was 11,000 feet per minute. That works out to 125 miles per hour. I doubt thats fast enough for this jet to get off the ground. Just sayin.
@@1realtruthrightnow742oh stupid voice to text while driving. Let me try again: how are things at the scene? Feel free to send me private message. Very curious.
The ads-b data indicates to me either: 1) sparial disorientation OR 2) Horizontal Stabilizer/Rudder failure ATC: " on departure turn 290°" The turn started and got to 240° before everything went wrong, to me, this indicates either of the above 2 scenarios
Most likely the spatial disorientation. Nothing really indicates surface control failure. The pilot thought the aircraft was about to stall and the left turn and descent shows the overcompensating for the disorientation.
@@tommloye4626And what about attitude indicator failure? Probably we will never know what really happened here. All are speculations. With no FDR and/or CVR imposible.
It's not unheard of for ATF to investigate aircraft accidents if the cause isn't clear and there's an explosion like this one. I have to take exception of Dan's byline: "Superior judgement trumps superior skills". In aviation you can't have one without the other working in total synergy. Great judgement isn't worth much if you don't have the skills to back it up.
ATF doesn't investigate air crashes, unless invited, which hardly every happens, if ever. Don't you realize the aircraft was topped off with fuel? Aviation fuel is a lot more flammable than gasoline, hence the catastrophic fire after the crash. The fact that you used the word "synergy", tells me everything I need to know about you.
With many crashes can make some form of educated guess. In this case it is hard. I would look into horizontal stabilizer issues and runaway trim/auto pilot, spacial disorientation, and circumstantial issues.
@@craigm3777 could’ve been spatial disorientation, same as Kobe Bryant helicopter - Pilot flew it full throttle right into the ground in low altitude IMC.
They’ve actually had three Learjet accidents, being the latter two fatal. Former flight crew members reported the company denied complimentary important support issues such as deice spraying and there’s some neglected maintenance claims, which led them to quit flying with the company.
I think the bright part is the landing lights and that "something that flew off" was maybe the fuselage and cabin lights coming into view as the plane rotated or spiraled into the field of view???
Omg what in the world could’ve happened to this Lear Jet so quickly after taking off? How devastating right on the heels of another catastrophic airline disaster with young kids onboard that AA flight. I’m so devastated for the victims and the families that will never get over these tragedies
I live 2 miles from the crash and everyone here felt the house shake. My concern is that the jet appeared to be on fire before crashing and I wonder if it hit a drone. Down the street from us is the NE Philly Airport and across the street is a gigantic Amazon facility
@@Chad.Tyrone4UNow As far as I know, a minute before the crash the jet would have still been on the ground. Be it taxi or taking off. They say it was only in the air for 31 seconds.
The plane looked to be flying inverted. I think the stabilizer had ice build up causing the jet to continue to pull-up, then the stall into an inverted position. The pilot looked like he was inverted and pulling up on the stick before impact.
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I think it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Tragic. My thinking?: spatial disorientation. I had it just ONCE in very my long career, taking off out of KaiTak (HongKong)in very poor weather. Both of us (Captain AND F/O) had it really severely at the exact same time. I immediately jabbed the Autopilot button, not worth the risk of trying to deal with it by hand.
@johnp139 I surmise Mr Faustino’s reference to “empty O2 bottles causing a fire “ would be referring to ValuJet flight 592 in which improperly labeled and stored oxygen generators caused a fire which destroyed the plane. Doubtful that has anything to do with this crash. Prayers going out to the families
Having flown medivac for over 35 y/o, Mostly helicopters, this just breaks my heart. I don't know if anyone thought about this but... Does anyone think the pilot may have tried to commit suicide? I pray that it isn't. My thoughts and prayers are with the family, friends, and the EMS community.
@@rachelherrick1900 They weren't high enough to pipe in oxygen. As you will see, the plane nosed in like a lawn dart. It has two engines. I don't believe both engines would just cut out like that. I feel bad for these people and their families just like everyone else does. Sometimes people ask the questions people don't want to think about. I didn't hear but was there a co pilot on board? Again, I am not intentionally trying to create drama. It's just a difficult question to ask oneself.
@@jumpingjacks5558 both engines could explode or go out suddenly but I don't think your point is not valid, it's important to ask every question possible when it comes to a plane crash. It could very well be possible that the pilot had mental issues but until the info is out there about everyone involved in the crash, it's just rumors.
Not trying to speculate, this is just my two cents. There have been a handful of corporate/private jet fatal crashes over the past 20 years during or just after takeoff from the crew forgetting to dis-engage/remove the control locks. Unfortunately, for those flights they realized their mistake too late and crashed. Again, not saying this had anything to do with this particular flight.
@@sbrunner1234 Again, there have been ha handful of fatal jet crashes where the control/gust locks were NOT removed. Yes, they SHOULD have been removed but were not due to negligence. Some planes have switches for control locks that are not "in your face" when you sit in the cockpit. Also, a plane CAN rotate with control locks. At some point, the plane is going to lift off the ground with no pull-back on the controls from the natural lift of the wings. This is normally above the normal take-off speed but it will fly (temporarily at least). I suggest you do an NTSB CAROL search for these fatal accidents and you will see this is a real thing (luckily not very often).
Well the massive debris field definitely says otherwise it doesn't rain pieces of plane and body parts from direct impact fact. The plane was shot down that was a missile..
Visually the air crash looks very similar to air crash in Mexico city in 2008. Same kind of plane, same vertical trajectory. That time Learjet has entered the trail of big plane and stall.
The item falling off is likely a symptom of overspeed/overstress, rather than a cause. With that impact, it seems unlikely that we will have a firm conclusion as to what went wrong.
Aldo Sterone in French suggest the trouble was at the gust blockers since the weather was windy. Because of the rain and those devices the same colour as the place the crew failed to notice.
@@MutedGrowl No way.. they did NOT have time to become disoriented. Something went wacko with the AP. To me it looks like a hard over with no possibility of disengaging the AP and regaining manual control in time. Look. This thing was only in the air for maybe 30-40 SECONDS or so they didn't have time for squat! I think maintenance was a factor. this plane was 45 years old could be that something critical was never checked since the day it was born.
The CVR probably won't but that FDR will. the CVR might though but here's the thing. They probably were just retracting the gear and maybe engaging the AP. I think something with that AP is what went wacko.
If you watch closely up above, you see that kind of a little flash up there is it just before it comes down to the cloud it blew up there and what you saw coming down as what was left. My next question is or comment what are their safety protection or security around the vehicle that would prevent somebody from putting some on there they could blow it up?
There might have been an oxygen problem. A tank vents within the aircraft and some spark or other (static for example) starts an oxygen fire. Similar to the Apollo 1 fire.
@itzyourcaptain1392 expert are pointing to classic stall. Takeoff is the most dangerous time for a stall. Too slow or too quick, then it can go to a stall. At higher attitude of stall it is still bad but there has been some recoveries throughout history probably less than 20% successful is my estimation.
Check out our report on the Washington DC crash about use of Night Vision Goggles for the Blackhawk helicopter. ua-cam.com/video/hlMTpIAlpw0/v-deo.html
I am from Mexico and this notice broke my heart 😢 , Rest in peace for all the people Lost their lives 😭.
God give force and strength to the families.
Yep Sad. "I" am an American supporting those on American soil who lost their lives because someone wanted a freebie. Sad but true USA is not able to take on more problematic situations under the dumbest Biden presidential decisions! Hault air controllers who are not qualified! Hault free anything! Hault supporting "a better life" Time to fix YOUR country!
Very sad a little girl was on board.
Does it really matter where one is from? Anyone with a heart FEELS THE SAME...
I saw photos of the pilot and co-pilot, and they look like the nicest guys you could ever meet. I'm from a family of pilots, and this broke my heart, as well. The team on board that plane were angels.
Yes God is Good Through It All , I live in California 11 miles from the Tijuana Mx Border This Disaster Impacts Mexico Just as Much as America , Canada & Other Cities The Victims Was From May They All R.I.P. .
So this little girl survived the disease but die’s on the way home after… that just makes it even more tragic. 😢
Yep! Life is weird 😢
Tragic, but there's no apostrophe in _dies._
Indeed it most certainly Does .... God Rest them All in Peace and love ...
It reminds me of the movie Final Destination
It's so eerie. It's giving me final destination vibes. Seriously this accident gives me chills.
That young girl who come here to save her life, and then she gets on a jet to go home and it crashes, it gets no worse than this 🙏🙏🙏🙏😢
God bless that poor little girl and everyone else who lost their lives 🙏
if this is not Luck and Timeline playing with you , then what is
THIS IS WHAT WOKE JOE BIDEN IS DO TO AMERICA PLEASE COME BACK PRESADENTE TRUMP GOD BLESS U
Your make believe friend watched, and did nothing. So many sheep.
@@lavatr8322You are right. I say it is timeline.She survive the disease but could not survive the crash that means her time was up.Remember always pray to GOD no one knows when time is up. By the way I am not American.
As a former air medic, this hit me hard. RIP
Could there have been an explosion because of oxygen tanks or something like that ??
Have you ever had a oxygen cylinder explode
Because as far as I know oxygen is not a flammable liquid or flammable gas, if oxygen could explode we all would be dead due to breathing in oxygen everyday, I have been a boilermaker since 1976 and worked with oxygen acetylene cutting apparatus basic daily until November 17, worked underground on gold mines using cutting torch as we call it and only a acetylene cylinder can explode because it's a gas, never heard of a oxygen cylinder explode
I was until November 17 and from Jan 76 a qualified boilermaker using oxygen acetylene basically everyday on South Africa gold mines, I have never heard of a oxygen cylinder explode because it's not a gas or liquid which is flammable
I know oxygen is a accelerant agent to a fire, once a fire starts and oxygen cylinder is close by it could help the fire
Maybe I am wrong
@@MrAlcline
Oh hope YOU are ok. We won't forget about YOU at this tragic time. What a selfish thing to say.
@@Palmstreet-u7xthat's not how oxygen works. We only breathe 20% oxygen. The rest is majority nitrogen and other gases. Wow. Did you even go to school
I am from Singapore and I am so sorry to hear of two crashes within a few days in the USA... God bless them all and God be there for those injured and are in recovery ❤
Real humans think of the suffering of Gazans and not the leader of all injustices 👿💯
@@baserkarim1933 They dont have a monopoly on the world's sympathy no matter how much they think they are entitled to it.
It's actually at least 3 crashes...
I'm not a pilot.
I just discovered your channel.
I find your analysis and observations extremely interesting to listen to.
Thank you very much sir.
This is so horribly tragic. These professionals dedicated their lives to saving others. It is incredibly sad to hear there was a pediatric patient involved. May they all rest in peace ❤
Not really, pilot hombre just wanted hours and pesos for the taquirito.
God has a spot for all of them it’s called HEAVEN 🙏
@@jimjab3631 AMEN!! As Americans supporting those on American soil who lost their lives because someone wanted a freebie!! Sad but true USA is not able to take on more problematic situations under the dumbest Biden presidential decisions! Hault air controllers who are not qualified! Hault free anything! Hault supporting "a better life" Time to fix their own country!
@@jimjab3631You just wanted some attention today. Your mom didn’t hug you enough
Mexican registered plane. No surprises here. Our safety sucks; theirs is worse. Old plane, poorly maintained and flown by a cowboy. Sick of hearing this story. Don't believe what he says about maintaining the same standards. It actually doesn't happen in practice because the FAA is out to lunch.
I grew up near the Crash Site. We Went to Roosevelt Mall all the time. This tradegy hit my family hard. Prayers. Prayers. 😢
Poor baby just survived a battle with a disease may she rest in paradise along with her mom and all the professionals on this plane may they RIP and on the people on the ground..
Godspeed and Vaya Con Dios to all those involved.
This is depressing 😢
Very sad to loose a Medevac Jet with 2 doctors, 2 pilots and tragically also a critically ill pediatric patient! 😔
I have a special place in my heart for medevac crews as a medevac flight brought me my new heart for heart transplant and also I hope to do medevac for a living someday and it breaks my heart that a patient died in a crash! When a patient is put a board of medevac flight, the patient’s family expects that it will end up saving their life, not cutting it short! 😔
Still good video Dan!
And the patient’s mother. Utterly tragic loss.
@@dw13645 Add to the tragedy, a person killed in a car on the ground below along with a little girl with a major laceration to the head, a man walking around on fire, a woman running out of a bus that was hit by debris on fire, a man in a diner struck in the head by debris and house fires.
Best of luck to you from a retired firefighter/paramedic. I flew once as medic on a lifeflight chopper. That was enough, as I'm deathly afraid of heights!
Godspeed and may all those affected Vaya Con Dios.
A sad day for everyone, no matter where they come from.
"Loose"? You meant to write LOSE.
As someone who is going to train to be a pilot next year in the UK this is heartbreaking. It looks to me as the planned went into an uncontrollable spin. If you watch one of the clips in 0.25x speed you can see it’s a spin. RIP to all involved 💔
@Pricey0770 I think a violent oxygen tank explosion in the cabin resulting in fuel tank igniting or severe structural damage to the aircraft.
Pure speculation as something this violent had not occurred before while flying with oxygen tanks. There have been in flight fires due to compressed oxygen tanks (ValueJet) but that in that crash the fire took minutes to spread throughout the cabin. This was instantaneous.
are you an engineer?
@@cattnipp Negative: just a PPL with 140 hours and aviation enthusiast.
Loss of situational awareness?
The large fire ball was apparently a full load of fuel AND oxygen tanks.
That’s what everyone is reporting
Yeah, that fireball was crazy. Like something out of a movie.
My 12 year old thought the boom was thunder when we heard the explosion and our house shook.
Not necesssrily a full tank but enough fuel to ignite. O2 tanks are highly explosive regardless..
It was reported that the oxygen tank are intact because they are built more resilient than we thought. Im not sure if it leaks or not though
I have never seen a plane fall out of the sky like that, speed, velocity etc, not even in movies. In fact, if that scene were in a movie, it would probably have to be tweaked for looking fake and unfathomable. Rest In Peace to those souls.
Looked alot like a missile
AA 587 had it's tail ripped off by the co-pilot just two months after 9/11 and it crashed into Queens New York, that airplane also came down like a missile, there wasn't much left of it and several houses. It is very unfortunante that these things happen.
@@AmericaFirst-s7r Well I remember that crash because I live about 60 blocks away from where it happened, it happened around Beach 130th St, I live on Beach 77th Street, I of course did not see it, we hear planes constantly as we are in the flight path of JFK, sometimes the planes fly so low you wonder "could this be the one?", anyhow, I say all that to say, I don't remember seeing any footage of Flight 587 falling with the same velocity and speed as this last "missile" we just experienced, if you can show me footage to the contrary then I will have to rethink my position.
@AmericaFirst-s7r That plane took off right after a 747 took off. The AA jet flew into the jet wake. Co pilot of the AA jet repeatedly was pushing hard on the rudder and snapped the tail rudder off.
@@alexrebmann1253 That's the one, I would have hated to be a passenger on that one, the G's must have been terrible.
Another sensitive and informative report Dan. Please keep up the good work. Sending love and best wishes from Australia to all those affected by these recent tragedies.
So many say "the plane went down like a missile" but this one really did. That's one of the most insane crashes I've ever seen. Damn.
Parts coming off the jet in that video wouldn't be a surprise considering the forces on the aircraft during that descent. Those won't be the cause of the crash, they are a consequence of the descent.
I think the elevator broke off of the tail. I cannot think of any other reason for it to go down like that.
@ericbitzer5247 elevator breaking wouldn't cause it to decend like that. This looks like an engine failure or two causing it to stall and it rotated upside down and did a nose dive
@ _This looks like an engine failure or two causing it to stall_
But we know for a fact that the plane did not stall.
Why do people edit their original comments instead of replying directly to the comment they're referring to? Lol
@@clicheguevara5282 Because I wasn't replying to anyone. I was adding an edit to my comment which is the first comment in this thread.
Does that fully answer the question you red cabbage?
I am so sorry for their families.
the ones Trump deported?
The ones Brandon brought in.
Thank you Dan for taking the time to get this out early. Your incite in times like these is very much needed! Thank you 🙏
I live about 1.5 miles from the NE Airport. The crash happened about 3 miles South of my house. There is no correlation between what happened last night here and the other night in Washington D.C. It’s a shame but stuff like this happens. God Bless all those who perished and were injured.
Why would your god bless them?
@@andersandersen6295grow up
There sure is a coincidence. It’s all Donald Trump’s fault!
Both resulted from pilot error and you say they aren't related🤦♂
The FAA is out to lunch and pilot proficiency standards have plummeted.
This crash is what happens when you stall a Lear Jet at low altitude. They are excessively difficult planes to fly, based on archaic technology and should all have their airworthiness certificates revoked. These planes were designed by the clown who invented the 8-track tape.
My Mom says things happen in threes.
Thank you for a very informative report on the Learjet crash, my condolences to all that lost loved ones R.I.P, such a terrible loss of life.
Agree with your statement about fire ball. While in Air Force watched an F 106 come down and crash off departure end of Runway 24. The fireball was quite large
Notice that at the very end of the first clip of the crash, after the man and woman have ducked back into the house and the door has closed, a piece of debris from the plane skids across the cement in the center of the scene. I had already watched this clip multiple times before I spotted this.
Funny....I also had seen that clip many times and only noticed that debris sliding across the video when I watched it on this channel. Maybe we were both seeing shortened versions of that video on other UA-cam channels.
You can hear it and other pieces strike the house!!
4:33
I also watched that clip a ton. I thought it was a rat running across the patio
God Bless all those who lost their lives in this terrible accident!🙏
Thank you for the quick breakdown of this horrific crash. It’s so sad to see so many crashes lately. It definitely makes people wonder what is going on for so many to be happening lately. We as a community need to really focus on staying proficient and making good decisions in the cockpit. Lest get the accident rate down. Keep up the excellent work Dan. Safe skies my friend 🇺🇸🛩️
😢God bless the families of the little girl and the mother and the crew so very sad.
The explosion was even more dramatic as it’s a lifeguard Flight they carry oxygen tanks normally two tanks in the trunk or the bottom of the patience stretcher. This setup is design like an ambulance. I flew AIR ambulance for seven years on a Lear 35A always have tons of oxygen on board for the patient.
That’s what I was thinking. Did some kind of compressed gas cylinder explode suddenly?
No, oxygen is not explosive in the sense that it might combust even if punctured. However, if there is any spark or flame present it will burn furiously in the presence of that compressed pure oxygen.
@@jill7759 Pure speculation (which is not wise during aviation accidents) but I still think something ignited those tanks causing a violent rupture in the cabin possibly damaging exterior flight controls (horizontal stabilizer) or even igniting the fuel tanks. I know it sounds a bit “Hoolywoodish” but I don’t see how this was a simple stall and nose over.
@@Traveloneglobal No speculation involved, simple facts. Oxygen, of itself, is not flammable nor explosive. However, the cylinder contents are under extreme pressure which is why lubricants, oils etc are tightly regulated for use with such tanks. Opening valves too quickly might generate enough friction to provide ignition of anything flammable or if spark is provided by a puncture it might provide ignition of adjacent materials which will burn furiously in the presence of that oxygen. I made no guesses as to whether this might have happened, simply answered the question as to whether a tank might have exploded. It’s a fallacy that many people do believe that oxygen is flammable or explosive, it isn’t.
Oxygen IS flammable. The presence of oxygen in earth’s atmosphere is why fire occurs on this planet. Cut off oxygen and flames go out.
At least the terror of that horrific decent was not long. I have nightmares about out of control decents that last several minutes. R.I.P to all lost souls🙏😪
It looked kind of deliberate to me. That plane was going full throttle in that dive. The fact no one in the cockpit responded to the towers?
@@simonmiller5118we need to wait for an investigation. Maybe pilot had a seizure or something
@@simonmiller5118 They didn't respond because they were dealing with a severe and sudden emergency. Pilots are all taught to fly the plane first. These are medivac pilots. They literally signed up to save lives. I think it is far too much of a leap for you to say something horrible like that.
The jet exploded on contact with the ground with nearly 1,000 gal of Jet-A.
The 11,000 ft/min decent rate was last data point. Previous data point was 7,000’/min. Data points prior were approximately 4,000 and 1,000 feet rates of decent.
And the medical grade oxygen cylinders are no slouch either. This would explain the bright blaze which is usually due to oxygen acceleration
Would 11,000 f/min decent rate mean full take-off power was still engaged, and the 7k increase to 11k may be gravity? Also the bright large image may be from an oxygen explosion in the plane at its take-off height rotating the plane for its downward trajectory.
Didn't this aircraft have the range on full tanks to fly directly to Tijuana ?
@@roxximusik8958 No.
But definitely not from a explosion from a oxygen cylinder, cannot explode
Wow, that's an old plane. Maintenance records will be scrutinized
That jet is at least 40 yrs old...they made many stops that day fom Haiti to Arizona to Florida To Pennsylvania....
News stations with authority have not only verified the plane (fromMexico) was too old 45 yrs old. but the weight was not loaded evenly for such a small plane. SMH- How many Americans lost a life because mxcns want a freebie?
Seriously? My God, what is happening to the empathy in this country?? What a shame.
@@PhyreReighn
@@PhyreReighnYou're a moron that doesn't know jack about aviation!!!
@@PhyreReighn Why not get all the facts before saying something stupid?
I cannot help but think of the expertise, education and dedication of those people and the loss to the community because of these accidents. People cannot be replaced, families, friends, coworkers miss them terrible and the impact on the community is a huge loss also. So very sad.
That looked so much like a cruise Missle from out of nowhere.
Sympathy goes out to any family.
Probably because it was.
@@lifeontheroad_🤣🤣🤣 An errant cruise missle accidently launched by chinese war ship?😱🤣🤣🤡
@@lifeontheroad_ sad but I think its true
Thank You Dan…Paul in Central Florida
You're welcome Paul.
-Dan
You may never know. No recorders? No mayday calls, nothing left of the jet to speak of. It sure didn't stall like people are saying. Stall speed is around 120 knots, this jet took off fast and increased speed as it was climbing. It wasn't on fire as people think either. Landing lights on is what people saw. The low cloud cover magnifyed this as well. He was sure cooking when they hit the ground. Many people thought it was a missle it was going so fast!
Yeah was no stall.
@TakingOff yes it was. Either engines failed or center of gravity was off. It was upside down coming down. All those indicators of a stall.
Blancolirio said the same as you here. Way too high numbers for stall.
Pilot disorientation? It would explain the inverted dive into the ground. He was instructed to make a right turn after take off. Maybe he banked right and just kept on banking...
@@h20bp Flight radar shows he started to turn right but then the jet went left then down fast into the ground. Could be pilot disorientation but he didn't keep banking right. You would think the pilots were well trained in IFR conditions?
appreciate your clarity!
Private Jet carrying a child medical patient dropped down 8 mins away from me.. I literally thought someone bombed a building.. it didn’t sound like a big car crash would sound.. and 3 days ago Washington DC plane was the first commercial airplane crash in 16yrs.. 😢 wow
First commercial *midair* crash in 16 years.
Planes crash somewhat regularly, just check this or other plane related channels for other crashes.
@@sqeeye3102 yes.. crashes out the air.. I know it’s runway crashes, landing crashes but I’m not talking about those..
@@cnp215 But the statement "3 days ago Washington DC plane was the first commercial airplane crash in 16yrs" is completely wrong if you don't include the context of it being a midair collision.
@@sqeeye3102 I know.. I see it bro
@@cnp215 Then why act confused about the correction? It's an important detail that changes the entire meaning of the statement and is completely misleading to those who are unaware. It's just not that hard to admit a mistake.
Remember: it's now *_ATFE_* ... Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms _and Explosives._
5:33 The "thing coming off the plane" could be the wingtip light coming into view as the plane continues to bank.
Kind of what I was thinking. I’m more inclined to think that that was just the wing coming into view as the plane rolled instead of something coming off of the plane.
+1
Yes, I'm certain it was the wing tip light. If you go frame by frame about a second earlier you can see the light blink a second time.
Heartbreaking hearing very last words on ATC.
Incredibly tragic. The violence of the explosion on impact may be explained with the amount of fuel on board in combination with oxygene for the patient.
@ Janncfl. Exactly ! ! ! A tumbling oxygen bottle will possibly lose a valve even before impact. Hense ATF at scene to investigate. God rest the Souls of the people who died .
Thank You.
Dan, you have a superior channel…many thanks for all that you do to help your viewers process this chaotic time within the aviation industry. My heart is heavy for all of the families.
Respectfully, Dr. Lucy
Appreciate the kind words.
You have an amazing, plethora of information of this crash just happened last night.
Night before last. It happened Friday night, it’s now Sunday morning.
It didn't "explode" just after takeoff. It exploded when it hit the ground.
such a sad story, thank you for the coverage
When it was coming down it looked like it increased speed.
beware well DUUUUUUHHH!!!!!! any plane or object falling out of the sky will accelerate to terminal velocity over 700MPH !!!
Very sad to have that young girl coMe for life saving treatment and then to perish in a crash. 🙏🙏 rip to everyone involved 😢
It is so scary to think that you are never safe no matter where you are. I live close to Pittsburgh airport and many times I hear planes going over and hold my breath sometimes. This is so horrible. There has to be fatalities on the ground as well. Cars burning and buildings on fire. This is Hell.
i feel the same way, prayers to all
Another good video by Taking Off.
With that huge rate of descent and the amount of stress on the airframe, it's not surprising that something snapped off the plane before it crashed.
Considering the area around the airport is a heavily residential area, if a part of the plane departed we would already know about it because it would have caused damage on the ground between the runway and the crash site.
According to this video the rate of descent was 11,000 feet per minute. That works out to 125 miles per hour. I doubt thats fast enough for this jet to get off the ground. Just sayin.
@@jpjh8844 I grew up in the area, and worked at PNE for six years. There is a very large park called Pennypack that could easily conceal evidence.
@@genxjasonAir speed was not a problem.
@@MikeJones-rk1un I was just pointing out that 11,000 feet per minute is not that fast.
Philly guy here who was at the scene, I'm telling you what's being reported "on the news" is not how things really were at the scene.
How were they on the scene? Feel free to reach out to me.
@@TakingOff Who is they? I live 2 blocks down.
@@1realtruthrightnow742oh stupid voice to text while driving. Let me try again: how are things at the scene? Feel free to send me private message. Very curious.
Save the video it's the only one like it they all have been doctored peace and stay safe...
Takeoff’s and landings are most dangerous. If something does go south you have very few precious seconds it resolve the problem..
That’s very true, I heard this all my life
The ads-b data indicates to me either:
1) sparial disorientation
OR
2) Horizontal Stabilizer/Rudder failure
ATC: " on departure turn 290°"
The turn started and got to 240° before everything went wrong, to me, this indicates either of the above 2 scenarios
Most likely the spatial disorientation. Nothing really indicates surface control failure. The pilot thought the aircraft was about to stall and the left turn and descent shows the overcompensating for the disorientation.
@@tommloye4626And what about attitude indicator failure? Probably we will never know what really happened here. All are speculations. With no FDR and/or CVR imposible.
With all the cameras people capture a lot of stuff, prayers go out to families that lost loved ones
It's not unheard of for ATF to investigate aircraft accidents if the cause isn't clear and there's an explosion like this one. I have to take exception of Dan's byline: "Superior judgement trumps superior skills". In aviation you can't have one without the other working in total synergy. Great judgement isn't worth much if you don't have the skills to back it up.
ATF doesn't investigate air crashes, unless invited, which hardly every happens, if ever. Don't you realize the aircraft was topped off with fuel? Aviation fuel is a lot more flammable than gasoline, hence the catastrophic fire after the crash. The fact that you used the word "synergy", tells me everything I need to know about you.
@@scomeaux100 Jets run on JetA which is kerosene which, is not more flamable than gasoline !!! geeese !!
ATF would investigate a missile strike.
Or possible drug smuggling?
Think DOD wud investigate missle strike,,not ATF..ATF KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT CRUISE MISSLES..🤣🤣 Really jus need to be abolished..
Thank you Dan
Thank you for clarifying what happened in this tragic incident
My condolence to the family members bereaved of their dear ones.
I don't think anything fell off the plane. I think what you are seeing is the tip of the wing as the plane spins violently.
With many crashes can make some form of educated guess. In this case it is hard. I would look into horizontal stabilizer issues and runaway trim/auto pilot, spacial disorientation, and circumstantial issues.
Pilot probably had a heart attack and slumped forward on the controls during full power take off.
do they run these single pilot?
@ nah it had two pilots,
2 pilots..They both didn have heart attacks 🤣 Too fast to be stall.. Stabilizer? Cud too much trim do that kinda dive?
That is my thought also!
@@craigm3777 could’ve been spatial disorientation, same as Kobe Bryant helicopter - Pilot flew it full throttle right into the ground in low altitude IMC.
They’ve actually had three Learjet accidents, being the latter two fatal. Former flight crew members reported the company denied complimentary important support issues such as deice spraying and there’s some neglected maintenance claims, which led them to quit flying with the company.
Ice was my first thought, honestly. Because of the left and right banks followed by a rapid nose down.
Deicing is never a complimentary service, it really expensive actually. One of the reason these companies don’t want to pay for it
There was a bright flash seconds before it hit the ground, the explosion was enormously powerful !!
Wrong fuel added..? 😮 😮 That fireball was two stage secondary, explosion!
Because of the oxygen tanks on board
I think the bright part is the landing lights and that "something that flew off" was maybe the fuselage and cabin lights coming into view as the plane rotated or spiraled into the field of view???
I wonder if the black box survived?
ATF is there to see if it was foul play so is the FBI
Great analysis
So-called debris in video seems to match plane velocity. Possible reflection or lighting. Wild guess, an engine anti-icing system issue.
100% humidity with very low cloud, but I believe the air temperature was well above freezing at something like 48 deg. f.
I wonder if the piece thought to fall off could be a light blinking on the wing
It appears to me it was on fire leaving the clouds.
Most likely you are seeing the landing lights.
Great Report! Thanks
Just the beginning of 2025 and tragedy already happens. Becareful out there my fellow American. ❤
Omg what in the world could’ve happened to this Lear Jet so quickly after taking off? How devastating right on the heels of another catastrophic airline disaster with young kids onboard that AA flight. I’m so devastated for the victims and the families that will never get over these tragedies
This flying ambulances are full of oxygen tanks
Irrelevant
@ o2+Jet A1 = quasinuke explosion.
its a nice report. very softly presented. this is sensitive content. Nice work..!
Thanks.
I live 2 miles from the crash and everyone here felt the house shake.
My concern is that the jet appeared to be on fire before crashing and I wonder if it hit a drone.
Down the street from us is the NE Philly Airport and across the street is a gigantic Amazon facility
I wondered that too.
About a minute before the big explosion, did you hear noise from the sky like an explosion up at 1600 feet?
@@Chad.Tyrone4UNow As far as I know, a minute before the crash the jet would have still been on the ground. Be it taxi or taking off. They say it was only in the air for 31 seconds.
A missle hit the plane. You can see it in the video.
@ladybug644 no missile.
The plane looked to be flying inverted. I think the stabilizer had ice build up causing the jet to continue to pull-up, then the stall into an inverted position. The pilot looked like he was inverted and pulling up on the stick before impact.
From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I think it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
HOW !! I know it's possible , I would appreciate if you show me how to go about it .
It's Roberta Ann Caudill doing she changed my life. A BROKER- like her is what you need.
😱Sounds familiar, I have heard her name on several occasions.. and both her success stories in the wall Street journal
ROBERTA ANN CAUDILL
I googled about her, and yes, she's won my heart. She just gained herself a new client
Great video, thank you.
Tragic.
My thinking?: spatial disorientation. I had it just ONCE in very my long career, taking off out of KaiTak (HongKong)in very poor weather. Both of us (Captain AND F/O) had it really severely at the exact same time. I immediately jabbed the Autopilot button, not worth the risk of trying to deal with it by hand.
Apparently it was in flames before impact
That's called afterburners. Not a plane but a cruise missile, you're under attack from your own govt.
Hope the father finds peace. He lost both the love of his life's in 1 day. 😢 Don't know how anyone can handle such loss.
Thanks for the video
@johnp139 I surmise Mr Faustino’s reference to “empty O2 bottles causing a fire “ would be referring to ValuJet flight 592 in which improperly labeled and stored oxygen generators caused a fire which destroyed the plane. Doubtful that has anything to do with this crash. Prayers going out to the families
Thanks
Having flown medivac for over 35 y/o, Mostly helicopters, this just breaks my heart. I don't know if anyone thought about this but... Does anyone think the pilot may have tried to commit suicide? I pray that it isn't. My thoughts and prayers are with the family, friends, and the EMS community.
That’s where you jump to and not an oxygen tank malfunction damaging an engine and sending plane into an unrecoverable stall??
@@rachelherrick1900 They weren't high enough to pipe in oxygen. As you will see, the plane nosed in like a lawn dart. It has two engines. I don't believe both engines would just cut out like that. I feel bad for these people and their families just like everyone else does. Sometimes people ask the questions people don't want to think about. I didn't hear but was there a co pilot on board? Again, I am not intentionally trying to create drama. It's just a difficult question to ask oneself.
I thought the same,poss
@ Yeah, you don't want to think about it but it has happened in the past.
@@jumpingjacks5558 both engines could explode or go out suddenly but I don't think your point is not valid, it's important to ask every question possible when it comes to a plane crash. It could very well be possible that the pilot had mental issues but until the info is out there about everyone involved in the crash, it's just rumors.
Imagine walking on the street, minding your business, and all of the sudden a Lear Jet comes out of nowhere and you're finished.
Imagine the same but it was a bullet that did the flying
( THANKS, BUT I’D RATHER
“ NOT IMAGINE THIS “😮‼️)
@@gails.newberg2945 yes I’m just having a memory for the people that get shot and killed everyday
Not trying to speculate, this is just my two cents. There have been a handful of corporate/private jet fatal crashes over the past 20 years during or just after takeoff from the crew forgetting to dis-engage/remove the control locks. Unfortunately, for those flights they realized their mistake too late and crashed. Again, not saying this had anything to do with this particular flight.
Not trying to speculate then you speculate
@@ShoestringRacer How did I speculate? I stated a fact of other flights in the past. Where did I say I thought this was a cause of the crash???
You would not rotate with control locks and this should have been caught in preflight anyway,
@@sbrunner1234 Again, there have been ha handful of fatal jet crashes where the control/gust locks were NOT removed. Yes, they SHOULD have been removed but were not due to negligence. Some planes have switches for control locks that are not "in your face" when you sit in the cockpit.
Also, a plane CAN rotate with control locks. At some point, the plane is going to lift off the ground with no pull-back on the controls from the natural lift of the wings. This is normally above the normal take-off speed but it will fly (temporarily at least).
I suggest you do an NTSB CAROL search for these fatal accidents and you will see this is a real thing (luckily not very often).
So sad for all those effected from this tragedy
The Learjet did not explode after take off. It exploded after it crashed
Well the massive debris field definitely says otherwise it doesn't rain pieces of plane and body parts from direct impact fact. The plane was shot down that was a missile..
@@davedavidson7059 Evidence free Zone...Its a good thing there is some video
@@davedavidson7059
I think it was a missile hitting the ground but maybe you are correct. Either way, there is something off.
@@lifeontheroad_ plane was shot down and yea it was a missile and what was left of the plane hitting the ground...
Visually the air crash looks very similar to air crash in Mexico city in 2008. Same kind of plane, same vertical trajectory. That time Learjet has entered the trail of big plane and stall.
The item falling off is likely a symptom of overspeed/overstress, rather than a cause. With that impact, it seems unlikely that we will have a firm conclusion as to what went wrong.
Correct. I’m fairly certain this will be spatial disorientation, meaning the pilots were confused what was up and what was down.
Aldo Sterone in French suggest the trouble was at the gust blockers since the weather was windy. Because of the rain and those devices the same colour as the place the crew failed to notice.
@@marcvenot1332 no, it wasn’t nearly that windy. It’s gonna be spatial disorientation.
@@MutedGrowl No way.. they did NOT have time to become disoriented. Something went wacko with the AP. To me it looks like a hard over with no possibility of disengaging the AP and regaining manual control in time. Look. This thing was only in the air for maybe 30-40 SECONDS or so they didn't have time for squat! I think maintenance was a factor. this plane was 45 years old could be that something critical was never checked since the day it was born.
The CVR probably won't but that FDR will. the CVR might though but here's the thing. They probably were just retracting the gear and maybe engaging the AP. I think something with that AP is what went wacko.
💔 this has me shook. Some real final destination stuff
Crazy.
Judgment over skill, I like that. Thanks for the professional take on this.
48 degrees F, de-icing not required..
Nope
@@TakingOff must be on at or below 4C but METAR was 8C
If you watch closely up above, you see that kind of a little flash up there is it just before it comes down to the cloud it blew up there and what you saw coming down as what was left. My next question is or comment what are their safety protection or security around the vehicle that would prevent somebody from putting some on there they could blow it up?
ATF probably want to rule out bombs.
Or cover it up.
Yea, knowin rotted ATF..Coverup not suprise me
There might have been an oxygen problem. A tank vents within the aircraft and some spark or other (static for example) starts an oxygen fire. Similar to the Apollo 1 fire.
Possible runaway trim?
Yes that’s possible. As well as about a million other possibilities
What is a runaway trim?
Stall or spatial disorientation is my guess
@itzyourcaptain1392 expert are pointing to classic stall. Takeoff is the most dangerous time for a stall. Too slow or too quick, then it can go to a stall.
At higher attitude of stall it is still bad but there has been some recoveries throughout history probably less than 20% successful is my estimation.
@ looking at the data they never got close to stall speed