WHAT did The Pilots MISS?! Explaining Southwest Airlines flight 1248
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- Опубліковано 16 тра 2024
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Southwest Airlines Flight 1248 was a scheduled passenger flight from Baltimore, Maryland, to Chicago, Illinois, continuing onto Salt Lake City, Utah, and then to Las Vegas, Nevada. At approximately 19:15, while attempting a landing into Chicago Midway, the airplane slid off the end of runway.
How did this happen and why was this aircraft unable to stop?
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Below you will find the links to videos and sources used in this episode. Enjoy checking them out!
Sources
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Final Report:
www.ntsb.gov/investigations/A...
Northwest headquarters: corporateofficehq
corporateofficehq.org/southwe...
FAA Headquarters: MBisanz
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
FAA Building 2: US General Services Administration
www.gsa.gov/cdnstatic/10B.jpg
Midway Airport 2: Sox23 / Chris Bungo
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midway_...
RESA: @yvrairport via twitter
/ 2
EMAS 1: Runway Safe
runwaysafe.com/solutions/emas...
EMAS: Runway Safe Group
• Runway Safe - EMAS Eng...
Runway Safety Group Channel:
/ @runwaysafegroup
Crash Site: Gabriel Widyna
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwe...
Aircraft used: 737-700 by PMDG
pmdg.com/pmdg-737-700-for-mic...
CHAPTERS
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
00:00 - Intro
00:23 - Terrible Weather
01:20 - The Flight Crew
01:55 - The New Autobrake Feature
03:53 - Headwind Or Tailwind?
06:16 - Onboard Performance Computer
11:40 - EMAS
13:08 - Initial Descent
14:09 - Phases Of Flight
18:10 - The Breaking System
18:58 - Final Approach
19:48 - Touchdown
21:37 - Finally Stopped
22:38 - Interesting Conclusions
CILX24XKPOK732QW - Розваги
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hello im you big fan can you made malaysia airlines flight 653
Could you please do an episode on the Inex Adria Aviopromet 1308 crash? It was quite complex and I am sure you would enjoy the challenge!
LOVE YOUR VIDEOS PLEASE THE FLIGHT THAT NOSEDIVED INTO A MOUNTAIN IN CHINA RECENTLY!!
Great sponsor
I hope you will have for us in the future a coupon for PMDG or Fenix planes 😋
As a retired software developer, my first thought upon learning that the landing performance program silently capped the input tailwind component at 5 kt was, "How did _that_ ever make it through review?"
I would have designed it so it would still do the calculation with the entered value but display a warning that the value was out of limits.
true (its like the thing)
It didn't actually cap it silently, it highlighted that 8 knots value with a red background as incorrect, and there was also a message at the bottom saying the limit is 5 knots. The pilots just ignored that, and decided to land anyway, even though the tailwind they expected was over 5 knots.
Of course, with hindsight, we can think of improvements to that software. Like clearer warnings, and possiblly hiding all the distance calculation results, if the input data is invalid, instead of defaulting to the closest valid input value for those calculations.
But these pilots clearly didn't follow their procedures, which didn't allow landing with more than 5 knots of tailwind if any part of the runway had poor braking. Instead, they invented a new procedure, where they apparently took the average of the distance calculations for poor and fair. On top of that, they ignored the red warning for invalid inputs for the poor braking calculations, and just assumed the software would still produce correct results even with illegal inputs.
And about calculating correct distances even with the illegal input values, that's not how things work in aviation. The parameter tables to use in such simulations come from the manufacturer (or other technical sources), so as a software developer you can't calculate distances for inputs that are illegal. If you don't have any data to base your calculations on, you can't just guess or invent something, as that's not your field.
@@VladimirNicolici Fair enough. I wasn't paying strict attention to the display and didn't notice the red-highlighted value. Also, what you say about the dangers of extrapolating from the manufacturer's supplied tables is spot on and didn't occur to me.
Thank you for taking the time to point out the error in my reasoning, and for doing so in such a cogent and respectful manner. Unfortunately, that sort of thing seems to be becoming rare these days, which is a shame because we can always learn something new from each other.
Take care, my friend.
@@VladimirNicolici Nonetheless it should either have produced a correct answer based on the actual input (in parallel with the error message), or refused to produce any answer unless the user manually entered something in bounds. To change to an _optimistic_ alternate interpretation is clearly unsafe, no? Otherwise the tool becomes pointless: just enter any random figures at all, and the simulation brings things in bounds and says, yup, that's fine. Or?
@@stephenspackman5573 Indeed, as I mentioned, not making and distance calculations when the wind speed was out of range would have been better. But I doubt this was a decision the actual software developer made. There is very little freedom when implementing aviation software, you have to follow the specifications to the letter.
In any case, after this accident the airline modified the software to do just that, they stopped showing the estimated distances when the wind speed was out of range for the conditions. And they also clearly indicated that reverse thrust is required for those estimations to be valid.
There were many other problems not just with the application but also the documentation. The reverse thrust assumption in those calculations has been introduced recently, and the documentation was not yet fully updated to reflect that at the time of the accident.
Also, the company decided to make calculations based on performance data that was less conservative than Boeing's recommendations. If they used the data coming from Boeing, it would have shown the distance as insufficient for both the fair and poor runway conditions.
I am a 76-year-old widow and ex-teacher who has flown in an airplane less than half a dozen times and knows absolutely nothing about the mechanical systems. However, I find your presentations so well done and informative, I watch them all and learn a lot. I wish more teachers had your skills for engaging instruction. Thanks.
@@TeamSenke on God bro what 76-year-old be on UA-cam watching aviation videos?
@@mohammedfuseini5568 LOL you'd be surprised 🤣Caught my grandad watching UA-cam Videos on Yemeni weapons and army history
keep it up! it's never too late to keep learning and my hat's off to you
@@mohammedfuseini5568 this simply means there is no limit to learning 😁😁
Totally agree
These Flight Sim 2020 clips look so damn good they basically fill the role a VFX person would play in an air disaster-style documentary. As someone who vividly remembers what previous flight sim games looked like, it's crazy to see a real time render look this good. It definitely adds a great deal of polish to your already excellent series on accident investigations.
Is that FS2020? Been trying to find out what Mentour was using for these for weeks. I hot back into it but all I have is FSX and I've been yearning for Xplane 12 or FS 2020 figuring I'd use the one Mentour has because it looks great and way more functionality... though they do probably buy the aircraft seperately? In FSX stock you barely have control over most knobs, not even the autobrake, sometimes not at all or only through key combinations, which I already have scribbled all over my stick along with many functions I put on keys on the stick to avoid using key bindings in difficult phases of flight. If this is 2020 then that looks like a winner. I hope my rusty old 970 can handle halfway decent graphics settings.
I had Microsoft Flight Simulator too. I can agree with how much it has changed from 1997 when I bought it and a flight stick.
@@user-lv7ph7hs7lIt’s not all msfs. Some of his videos use p3d
@@user-lv7ph7hs7lHe uses both FS2020 and XP12 depending on which one has an addon for the particular aircraft.
I remember being impressed by Super EF2000 on Win95
Approaching MDW always feels like you’re gonna be landing in someone’s apartment, until the runway miraculously appears at the last moment. Always a thrill!
@@K1OIK MDW is the IATA airport code for Chicago Midway International Airport. Like LAX is for Los Angeles and LHR is for London-Heathrow.
If pilots are supposed to only use the lower rating when braking conditions are mixed, maybe airports should stop reporting mixed conditions. In this case they would report the conditions as "poor".
I was thinking this. It's misleading to give mixed conditions, just go with the most conservative and state the conditions as poor.
Yes but that wouldn’t apply to smaller lighter aircraft with much better minimums for that landing.
That sounds useful.
It sounded it was just a company procedure to use the lower rating, not an industry standard
Those data might be used for other considerations. Beside it is better to have an accurate description of the ground.The captain makes the call, not the airport.
I grew up in Chicago, and remember this accident very clearly: the weather was quite bad that day. Landing at Midway can feel a bit scary from a passenger perspective, as you see the wingtip level with somebody's third-story window, the plane bumps down, and the braking/deceleration is noticeably harder than in some other airports. Getting there by car, yeah, the planes seem like they land right on top of you.
Lol this one actually did land on top of the car!!!!
So i guess sometimes the do!!
been there, seen that
@@teamground0229 I wondered that myself. I have two (admittedly uninformed) guesses. First, that the alternate selection process assumed that conditions bad enough to close MDW would also close ORD - not unreasonable except in the case where the deciding factor is runway length, as it would have been here. Second, alternate airports on the flight plan (as opposed to an emergent in-air decision) might have been limited to airports where Southwest had a presence. While they do have some operations out of ORD now, they didn't at the time of this accident, so ORD may not have been an official alternate for that reason. (Note that I'm differentiating between planned alternates and emergency diversions, which would definitely be "any port in a storm" rather than "nearest airport out of which the airline has operations")
They need to extend the highway all the way to the terminal.
Ski, I'm automatically giving you 90% chicago blue check mark based in that alone.
I was flying into Midway about 20 hours after this incident. That was the first time I first realized how large these aircraft really are. Seeing the nose taking up 3 and a half lanes of road really put the scale in perspective for me.
As big as the 737 is, the other Boeing planes (777 and 787) are much larger.
@B Really? I would never have known that an aircraft with a larger number would've meant it was bigger.....🤔
@@gooner72777 is as big as 747 and 787 is smaller than both of them, though still bigger than a 737. The middle number is more about generation, chronological order of when the first plane flew rather than performance or size. For instance the first big jet airliner by Boeing was the 707, which influenced almost every liner built after. They all look more or less like a 707, in various sizes with newer engines.
Then came 727, 737 and 747 eaely 1960s, 757 after that, midsized, between 747 and 737 and then 767 and 777 is huge bigger than some older 747s and 787 is the latest new model, that's not directly related to a previous one. It's decently large but not close to 777 or 747, it's meant to replace 767 and is about a similar size, wide body but not a full sized jumbo jet like 777. L1011, DC10 etc...
Fun fact (on a not-so-fun topic): Midway was for a while the busiest airport in the world, which is how it got the nickname "busiest square mile in the world". Of course when the jets arrived a mile long runway was suddenly too short, so they converted then-Orchard Field into O'Hare International Airport, but by the 1990s Midway had reclaimed a large fraction of the commercial market. EMAS is in place now, and we have plenty of data showing that EMAS prevents exactly this sort of accident, so in general Midway is as safe as O'Hare these days after the EMAS install.
(Another fun fact: I've never fully verified this, but I believe that Midway and O'Hare combine to make Chicago the only city in the world to have had *two different* airports claim the title "busiest in the world" at some point in their history.)
I remember as a very young child in the late 50s going to Midway to see relatives off or pick them up at a time when piston engine aircraft were still dominant. The sight and sound of those big radials both fascinated and frightened me, and I always liked the way the tails of the DC-3s would come up first during the takeoff roll, or go down last while landing. The place seemed huge but by today's standards it's a postage stamp. Hard to believe big jets now go in and out there in a small area surrounded by dense development. But O'Hare was once out in the sticks, and it, too, is now surrounded as well. Oh well, guess nothing stays the same.
New York has that title with JFK and LaGaurdia as well.
Midway can never be as safe as ord. Ord had multiple runways almost 2x the length of mdw runways. Getting stopped by emas is not a freebie.
Watching this channel since 2 weeks. I am almost through the entire channel. Petter, you are one of the most amazing creators I have ever seen. I love this channel and your attitude. Keep it up and just the best for you and your family.
Thank you so much! But I have to credit my incredible visual artist team who helps me put pictures on my stories.
Thank you for watching and supporting! 💕
Same happen to me, when I find this Peters chanel for the first time 😅 after two years with this channel, I bet I could try to land passenger plane on the ground, in one or few peaces 😂
@@tjgeduks Nah, if you mastered how to get the radio to work and memorised the emergency frequency then you’re good to land if the weather is good. Programming the autopilot to land for you is easier than working the radio.
Of course, if there’s a brisk crosswind or enough turbulence to turn the autopilot off… well. Aim for the sea and don’t bank more than 30 degrees. We might not land, but we can avoid crashing into a city. 😁
Seconded! This is the most amazing channel.
100%! The quality of the content is exceptional. And it's helped me to analyse and solve problems applying the principles used on the flight deck. Fantastic.
Automatically changing a user-input value from 8 kts to 5 is unacceptable in a safety calc tool. It's the programmer/analyst version of get-there-itis. Wanting the calculation to succeed (human bias) means nothing if the purpose of the tool is to prevent hazardous decisions.
Maybe not even the coders fault. They might had no idea under what situations the program was meant to be used, just given a task to program.
@@justinepaula-robilliard As I understand it, It's not entirely true that there was no way to over-ride it. There were other situations where the pilots did recover. Although the point is taken, it was a very bad design decision.
@@justinepaula-robilliard whether the coder made an error or not--and everyone makes errors at some point-- it's the fault of management, not making sure there are checks along the way to prevent such an error effecting the outcomes. Management is often too focused on meeting deadlines and closing deals, and QA costs time and money. And nowadays, beta testing seems to be fobbed off on the end user. So instead of adequate testing that identifies this fault in the program, and steps to fix it, the product is out there endangering lives.
I like your videos cause you actually dive into the mentality of the pilots. It's not like other shows where they try to explain it to the general public. You actually go into this knowing the majority of us know aviation and know exactly what you are talking about, which helps makes these incidents more relatable to an aviation professional!
Glad you think so!
And I love aviation but don't know the technical aspects from the pilot or crews perspective so "yay" I'm learning things. It's so refreshing to upskill & give people the ability to raise their game rather then stagnate or dumb down the majority for the few that only want to know in 5minute bites anyway. 🤔
The other shows under-appreciate the public. Most people like to learn. The idea that pop culture must be dumbed down is silly. People understand all right. Just respect them - do a good job explaining to your audience, and the audience will do just fine.
This is one of two fatalities that Southwest has had in its 50+ years of existence. No fatality is good, obviously, but SW has a very good safety record.
i ONLY fly swa. always have, except for a couple years in the early 80s. that was a little segue into muse airlines, then transtar. Muse was ex swa anyway, flying md-80s, then transtar (acquired name by swa) so...
I think the landing calculation software automatically setting the wind to a lower value is a very bad design. It should calculate what it's asked for, not try and second guess the inputs.
Or throw up a big warning that can’t be missed or ignored.
Yes! And if parameter or other is not appropriate, it should present a "cannot calculate, such and such is out of bounds" message in a big red box.
And when it sees you're thinking of landing with 10 knot tailwind on wet runway, just explode the screen with flashing warning lights and sirens.
Yet another software gem, brought to us by geniuses who thought radio altimeter height of -8 ft is A-OK.
Shocking if they didn't cite that as a contributing factor in the official report. Maybe they did and it just didn't make the video
I'm from the Chicago area, and I remember when this happened. Thank you for covering this. My thoughts and prayers are with the family of the little boy who lost his life.
Indeed 😔 If it wouldn’t be for that, this could have been a positive story of lessons learned. Now it turned to a tragedy.
Thanks for watching.
FYI saying "thoughts and prayers" is widely considered an insult now, thanks to right wingers using it as a refrain after every school shooting
Thoughts and prayers 🙏
Prayers❤
Landing at Midway has always felt to me like what I'd imagine an aircraft carrier landing to feel like: short, hard, and without much margin for error. Sad that the removal of any one of the errors that led up to this could have prevented a death.
Everytime we landed at Florence airport in, well, Florence, Italy, I always felt “hot damn, that was hard, abrupt, short and jesus effing christ am I happy no errors were made by the pilots.
I live in Chicago and remember when this accident happened. I seem to recall the plane remained in the street for a couple of days. Obviously the street was blocked off, but I remember a news guy speculating about when it would be moved. I always wondered how/why it overshot the runway. Thanks for this video.
Hey there, fellow Chicagoan here! I grew up just two blocks from the barrier separating 63rd Street from the airport, directly under the landing path of Runway 31C and we all wondered afterwards if it was worth it to continue living so close to the airport. My family had that house for nearly 40 years.
Thank you appreciated 🙏
Growing up in the Chicago Area I remember when this happened, that sliding door effect, that one stop sign, one stop light on a trip can completely change ones fate, very humbling.
Every time I watch one of your videos I wish there was a similar channel that covers hospital sentinel events with the same level of details and sobriety so people in the field can learn and become more aware so fewer events happen in the future. I share these videos among healthcare safety professionals and they really appreciate the method and analogies. You see, things like communication, hand-over, expert situational awareness, technical knowledge, etc all these are very much of utmost relevance in the hospital.
I’m on the safety committee for our hospital and I’ve definitely been implementing concepts from these videos. The pre-surgical checklist came from pre-flight check lists after all. I just lead a meeting on active shooters/Code Silvers and I had to stop myself from using the term “memory items.”
Infact, it applies to all fields of life
@@panosdotnetor, hear me out, you can stop being 12 and actually appreciate people working to make things better and safer.
I want to thank you for your great channel. I didn't realize how complicated it is to fly one of these large planes. I also wanted to thank all pilots for getting me from point a to B safely.
You’re giving the “Aircrash investigation ” series competition with better details and more analysis. Bravo sir
One of the most harrowing landings I've experienced was at O'hare. I was on a Boeing 727 chartered by the Navy to transport recent boot camp graduates to schools at the Great Lakes training center. The flight attendants had told us that they'd never flown into Chicago but instead flew from Southern cities into the Caribbean.
The weather in Chicago was typical for late January with limited visibility, heavy snowfall, and winds out of the north bringing a -56º F wind chill.
Upon touching down, the pilot and/or first officer applied reverse thrust, and the plane literally turned sideways, sliding down the runway. Unfortunately, they over-compensated, and the plane simply swapped from one side to the other. The plane came to rest sideways with me looking out my window at the threshold stripes and the end of the runway.
I've flown through O'hare many times since then, often in winter, without any incident.
Whoa.....😳
ouch!
Wow!
I flew from Minneapolis to Hawaii. Jan 9. The weather was a whopping 18F. The ground crew was de icing the wings. In big cherry pickers. It took an hour.after first application. I wss praying on take off. Thanks without incident. But going from warm to cold weather, its a trip. Totally different. Pilots have to make so many adjustments.
@John Drew - that's when you say a few thank yous to Jack Steiner and the other Boeing engineers who built the 727 to be a tank with wings.
From you post, I take it that you were one of those young seamen? Thank you, sir, for your time given.
I rarely comment on your videos, but this one is so concise and succinct in the description of stopping a plane upon touchdown. I know you are also a trainer, so that probably explains a lot of why it was so clearly put, but conveying this to the general public on UA-cam has always reinforced my confidence in professional aviation and pilots.
He’s a trainer? Oh, boy, now a couple things about the “how to land a 747l video he did awhile back, makes sense.
oh man that picture of it on the highway jogged my memory, I remember this being on the news. absolutely insane. I feel awful for the family in the car.
Was picking up my wife at Midway just after this happened, the plane was in the intersection of Cicero and 55th St, saw the car, heartbreaking, and it took almost 4 hrs to clear. Having flown into Midway many times it is unnerving as you can see the tables and chairs on the back patios of the houses surrounding W and S side of Midway, which has the shortest runways in the county... any weather and its a white knuckle landing.
So impressed by the animations. I also prefer to hear you describe atc/cockpit voice data rather than hearing the real transmissions especially in the really bad ones
Thank you!
The lack of input validation with that program on the OPC is HORRIFYING! In Computer Science/Computer Engineering, this practice is engrained pretty much from the very start. Part of testing is entering unexpected/invalid entries, to make sure things can not progress until acceptable values are entered, and that the user is warned.
However, the fact that it just defaulted to the highest allowable value is orders of magnitude worse. I know this wasn't the only contributing error, but take note: this is how a software or computer engineer can kill someone through a stupid mistake or poor design decision just as easily as a civil engineer.
Probably outsourcing development to the lowest bidder. Classic Boeing.
The tool should’ve permitted 8 knots and given a real answer with a large warning that wind speed was over the limit. That it sneakily changed the value hurt things a lot.
indeed, unforgiveable and glaringly obvious to the simplest fool.....and this was signed off for passenger aviation??!!
Yes, I didn’t hear about that in the „recommendations“ section, which surprised me. I’d say this was THE main cause of the accident.
@@nikpalagaming8610 immature s/w developer I suspect...however this program must have been evaluated and tested by dozens of professionals - how come so many amateur youtubers can spot all these blunders so readily, yet the industry signs them off for use...?!
I currently work at Midway for Southwest and have heard this story from cohearts who witnessed it first hand. It's sad knowing there was a fatality, but the safety systems and policies that were implemented afterwards are great.
Glad to hear that. I fly southwest quite often, my family also.Midway sometimes, O hare and jfk msp.
Wasn't this accident the one that made Southwest mandate that the pilot use the HGS through the entire flight? If I remember correctly, the pilot had the combiner in the stowed position.
Thank you very much for picking this incident up! It shows how easy it is to miscalculate a landing, especially in unusual weather conditions.
Sadly it costs a human life, the life of a child.
RIP.
These are excellent, as an ex air force pilot I really appreciate the expertise you bring to these incidents. I don't have any experience of commercial piloting but I really find your channel a good "go to" place when I am bored or can't sleep. Keep it up!
Thank you Miranda! That’s great to hear 💕
@@MentourPilot No worries, I had a friend in the 90s who was a Lufthansa pilot. He once suggested to me that I pop the emergency door before I got off a commercial flight because the pilots would always try and fix it themselves rather than letting the ground staff do it. He thought it would be funny.
I first started watching this channel to help with my fear of flying. Turns out I find Aviation really interesting and actually want to fly now. Thank you for all that you and your team do!
Hah, welcome to the rabbit hole! All my life I had zero interest in flying due to being a nervous flyer until February or so and I realised aviation is actually fascinating. Then I found this channel and 74gear and have been soaking up information like a sponge.
And then I actually got a job at my local airport and I’m due to start training on Monday. My feet will remain solidly on the ground though.
I always felt umm, not entirely comfortable flying in larger passenger jets but my partner worked in the pilot training department for Air New Zealand many years ago & 1 treat was being invited to have a session in a 737 simulator which was amazing (the takeoff gave me the exact light butterflies feeling I always get) the hardest thing for me being attempting to steer the plane to line up for takeoff but the best experience was being invited to the cockpit (showing the age now, the Boeing being analogue also) and looking out from the pilots perspectives & watching procedures, the pilots explaining as we went gave me enough insight to feel so much more comfortable overall. Less fear or the unknown? Maybe seeing the pilots confidence, procedures & checks.
Welcome to a whole new world of far away destination & exploration. Enjoy.
My Dad used to take us near the airport to watch planes take off & land as kids ⁶ years old. 1958 at JFK . I was always fascinated by the planes. My father did not like to fly or fly. It was just a cheap entertainment for 6 kids. I never got to fly until i got a job and paid my own fare after graduation. I was about 20 & still in college. I went on to the Air Force and became an aircraft mechanic and later a Cessna student. Flying is fun. You got to try it to understand. Get the bug.
Yep. I watch for pretty much the same reason. Was a nervous flyer..but now not so much. Having an understanding of how planes fly and land has made me more rational in the air.
I can't imagine the pure terror that poor family felt. It's incredibly tragic that a child lost their life but miraculous that nobody else did.
Thank you for another brilliant and educational video, Petter
Excellent video, Petter. I really appreciate the work that you do.
I really appreciate the explanation of how the thrust reversers work and how the engines automatically spool down to ground idle after touchdown. It really makes some things I've seen before 'click'. Well done and thank you.
I used to run 737s and if I'm not mistaken the Thrust Reversers (TRs) deploy in about 2 seconds and the engines throttle up in a maximum of 4 seconds.....but in my experience they spool up FAST. way less than 4 seconds. 4 seconds was just the maximum amount of time the manual allows to be within limits. But they go much faster. So in this case, from TR deployment to full reverse thrust..... likely 4 seconds. An eternity at 130 miles per hour. You'd travel 760 feet before you started getting the full benefit of the TRs. Yeah, that'll make the hair stand up on the back of your neck.
You mentioned the number of runway excursions increasing and the need to manage risk factors, but I'm actually much more interested in why you think they're increasing in the first place and what factors are affecting this?
Yes please! Maybe a good Mentour Now topic???
I would hazard a guess that this increase is simply correlated to the increase in the number of flights. There is also the fact that modern tools make it easier to detect minimal runway excursions that might not have been registers in the old days. (this was mentioned in another Mentour video) When a plane only edges into the paved runoff area by a few metres, it can look from the tower like no runway excursion has taken place, but nowadays, in modern airports, there are detection mechanisms at the end of the runway itself which will catch the smallest transgression.
That being said, runway excursions are still extremely rare, with fewer than 20 incidents/year across the world in the 2009-2013 period (on average 0,57 incidents for 1 million sectors based on 2009-2013 IATA data and this average is skewed by the poor performance of Russian and African operators (respectively 1,45 & 3,98 incidents/million sectors))
I would guess that overconfidence in technology is a major factor. I've seen a trend over the last decades in several areas that people, especially younger, put 100 % trust in anything that comes out of a computer and/or assumes that the computer only accepts valid inputs.
Don't get me wrong, computers and technology are wonderful tools that allows us to do things that wouldn't be possible otherwise but a bit of sanity and allowance for external variation must be included.
We see one clear example in this video, they enter one figure into the computer and then trusts the output fully (and then some). That the application adopted the wind figure without a major warning is a serious error in the program in my opinion - it should have given an information window like "entered tailwind above permitted value, verify input).
Maybe an over reliance on automated functions. I’ve watched a few documentaries about flying that mention pilots are increasingly lacking functional skills because they don’t need to practice them as often due to the computer doing it for them.
@@sharg0 Just to add to your comment. Likely a mix of using these computers allows us to get near max landing ability but you loose the safety margin of the pilot's decision skills (sounds like before this the old way was the pilots' gut feeling) but now if a PC says it is fine to land they trust the 'hard numbers' instead forgetting that humans & equipment (tire grip, no blow out, ABS allowing max braking when in some cases it can be worst then manually doing it but is very rare, pilots forgetting or doing something late, reversers being slow to open or don't at all due to equipment braking, landing late on the runway). The FAA knows this and requires a built in 15% safety factor into the PC cals but personally feel that 15% in the dry is likely fine but should be 25% in icy/snowy/extreme wet weather and 20% in normal wet conditions. If those pilots didn't have a PC telling them they are fine to land then good chance they would thought it wasn't safe and landed at an alt airport. Also it might be a good idea for pilots to be trained to try and keep an additional safety factor ontop of the PC's report - ie they need at least 500ft of runway left no matter the PC's cal results and should reconsider landing options if they are under that 500ft remaining per the PC cals. Trying to get max performance and using hard numbers is great if we lived in a prefect World, but we don't and just need either higher margins built in those tools or train pilots to make the final call (as if expected of them; but they tend to forget that applies to certain aspects like a landing cal from a PC) & remind them safety if better then risking it. Of course something like this is rare so changing it to affect businesses (cost $$ to keep landing at alt airports for something that might happen in a 1 in 100,000 flights) so you got to play both sides (FAA) because if safety was #1 then we wouldn't fly ever for due that one in a million chances of a crash. Either way; I do put some blame on the cap for using a tool for the first time in extreme conditions (and wasn't required to use it yet) if he wanted to try it [auto brake system aka ABS] out he should of waited for a sunny day, then next on a wet day, then lastly a icy/snow day since he was 'testing it' -- or better yet in a sim if he had sim time coming up -- don't blame him for trusting the PC cal but he should of added his own safety margin ontop of its results - either of those could have avoided it. However, I'm annoying the FFA allowed for basically no run off space at this airport they should of downsized the runway or installed the break-away cement and not approving it with no safety factor. TL;DR if you keep using systems and taking away safety factor/margin from everything then of course crashes happen (no safety margin in the landing PC cal, no safety margin in runway runoff length).
You could say that.. the weather outside is frightful
could be as bad as you having to drive a tesla in that weather and not slide out of control
Amazing video, so glad your channel was recommended to me! I've always watched documentaries about disasters and know of this flight, but your explanations really fill the gaps that those miss. I'm looking forward to binge-watching everything at my earliest opportunity!
The captain DID try to employ thrust reversers, but the handles got stuck because the engine couldn't be spooled up before the reversers were fully opened.
I consider that a design flaw.
The same mechanism that blocked the reverser handles could have been used to block the engines from spooling up until the doors were fully opened after which the engines could spool up to the set reverse thrust.
Such a mechanism would have allowed the captain to simply set the desired reverse thrust and subsequently focus on the other tasks the landing required such as braking and maintaining direction.
It is an awareness feature that all jets that I know of have. I've been flying jets for about 4 years now and have never seen a captain or first officer forget to use the thrust reversers in the manner which happened in this accident. Something like that is incredibly rare.
If operating as designed then it would provide helpful feedback to the pilot that reverse thrust is not available yet, and keep the position of each lever matching the state of each engine. If one reverser door suffered a failure and couldn't open, and the other worked normally, we'd want the pilot to notice they have only one handle moving (asymmetrical reverse thrust). You could almost have it both ways with a detent that automatically operates the reverser as soon as the door finishes opening, but it would have to move to a fixed setpoint.
Agreed
The problem specific to the 737 is that I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a mechanical linkage between the thrust reversers and the “throttle” of the engines. Imagine if there was no stop and one of the doors was malfunctioning. You’d stab open the thrust only to find a severe yaw to one side as one engine attempts to reverse thrust and the other is pushing the plane forward.
@@asamyers4572 Lauda Air Flight 004. It happens.
Thank you for the video, Petter! Can you please elaborate why do you think runway excursions are becoming more frequent? Is it down to pilot behavior, or maybe we are flying heavier planes into smaller (shorter runway) airports more frequently, etc. Thank you!
I was thinking something similar, more passengers & cargo per flight, people getting heavier..
Cramming planes for (financial) efficiency, until someone dies and the rules get changed again.
I thought that passenger weight couldn't possibly matter. But a 747 only weighs 187 metric tons. At 500 passengers, assuming each is 20kg heavier, that already makes for 10 metric tons difference, or 5% - not all that much, but certainly noticeable.
Fat Karens
Hopefully he will answer this on Mentour Now
Increased air traffic congestion may play a part. I would speculate that financial pressure is a factor as well. With increasingly thin operating margins, no airline wants to accept a diversion with its associated costs and knock-on effect to the schedule unless it absolutely has to.
Your accident breakdowns are easily the best I've seen on the internet. Your in depth breakdowns are full of really interesting information. Your presentation is great, and you never sensationalise the incidents. I am a complete layman in aviation, yet you explain things so I can understand. I have learnt so much about aviation, and flight dynamics. Thank you so much.
Check out “ Green Dot.” It is also well done.
My father was a *Flugzeugführer* (pilot) back in 1944 during ww2. He flew a ME bf 110 and was shut down in france 1945, became then a pow in Biloxxi, USA. When returning back to Germany he never worked as a pilot again. But he told me such intensive stories that I was always fascinating in aviation. I m shure that my dad would have loved your channel! Carry on with your good work, please!
I remember living in Chicagoland when this happened. It was understandably all over the news. Also the roads surrounding MDW aren't really highways but they are pretty busy.
Yeah, it landed on Central Ave, a four lane road but not exactly a highway. MDW is pretty unique in being in the middle of a residential urban neighborhood.
The city streets surrounded Midway Airport are NOT highways. They are main, multilane, arterial, city streets! With stoplights about every 6 blocks. With speed limits of 30 mph!
@@paulortiz2035 In all fairness, when was the last time you saw anyone obeying that speed limit? I've been southbound on Cicero Avenue, on the other side of the airport and people are screaming by at anywhere between 40-50 MPH.
Animations are getting better with every video 👌
Awesome video, as always. My dad has been flying since 1978, so I showed some of your videos (e. g. Concorde crash analysis) and even he said he found it interesting and learned a couple of new details.
Excellent as usual! SO informative. Comprehensive, gripping, entertaining! Thank you Petter!
I remember when this happened, one of my friends who used to frequently host some of our get togethers lived directly across the street from Midway. We used to watch the planes land all the time until they put privacy screening on the fences after 9/11
Question: When the pilots inputed 10 knots tailwind, does the computer warn the pilots that they exceeded the 5 knots maximum before it defaulted itself automatically?
I’m not sure, I’m any case it was not noticed by the crew.
Wouldn't be surprised if it were a "they know they can't go over 5, so nobody is going over 5, cap it at 5" situation.
I'd want the program to throw a very ominous warning, but still allow for using out-of-range values.
@@Fay7666 Thanks Efrain
@@MentourPilot Thankyou Mentor Pilot
@@Fay7666 I've programmed a lot of database interfaces and you generally either make it so the entire input is rejected when you type something wrong (which many will recognize from online forms) or so it attempts to adjust values into a valid range, BUT making those automatic corrections without clear notification or warning for the user is terrible practice, and yet it happens quite often. I personally believe in bright in-your-face warnings when doing those automatic corrections, but for something like an aircraft it really should flash "no can do" warning with everything that's wrong with the chosen options. Never ever guesstimate values when lives depend on it
Amazing videos. I appreciate every one of them. Our host explains everything so very well that, even as a very elderly woman, I feel like I could fly one of these planes thanks to his excellent instruction!
Thank you so much for those kind words. 💕
Been a mentor pilot fan for about 3 months now and I'm always fascinated by the stories. Incredible work as always, thanks for the fantastic content. 👍👍
So glad to see you’re getting more subscribers to your channel. Congratulations! Best aviation channel out there in my opinion. Thanks for doing what you’re doing
Thank you Karen! That’s nice to hear 💕
Hi Petter, at the end of the video you said that runway excursions are increasing.
I think it may be interesting to watch a video of an analysis of this trend.
Thank you again!
My guess as to why they are increasing? Airplanes pressuring pilots to land at the desired airport at all costs, and trying to dissuade them from diverting in poor conditions, presumably for financial motives.
Yet another excellent explanation, Petter! Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge about these accidents, and about flight in general.
I live in the Chicago area and during our heavy snow falls it's risky driving a car, I can't imagine how terrifying it must be to land an aircraft in those conditions!
Hello Peter, I’m a plane spotter based on Belgium and am following your videos since your origins 6 years ago. I would love to catch one of your flights! Are you flying to Belgium or vicinities in the coming future?
Hi! I fly from Girona to Brussels on the 14th of June 😉
thanks a lot for your reply!! I’ll be there 😊😊
Hope you get good footage :)
@@ZombieSazza me too 😊, hopefully the active runway will be a good one for spotting here in Brussels
@@aviation2everybody I am also doing spotting in EBBR :D
I remember this story I live about 20 mins from midway and my girlfriend at the time lived 3 blocks down so interesting hearing the full details after all these years thanks Mentour!!
Yet another fantastic video! Well done to the whole Mentour team :)
I was on my way home from work, on Archer and Central and decided to stop at the 7-11 before heading south on Central to my house. By time I parked and just as I got out of my truck I heard the crash. I walked a few feet over around the building to see what happened and there was a 737 sitting on Central. If I didn't stop for some coffee, it's a possibility I would have been mixed up in that accident.
I can't imagine walking around a building and seeing a huge aircraft chilling in the road.. I would think I was dreaming.
The closest my car has ever been to a airplane was on i20 going through shreveport. There was a 747 who was a little short of the runway and the wheels hit some lights right as we went by. It landed on the runway and no one was hurt... except for us on the interstate who had heart attacks.
Fate speaks loudly. Huh?
I was in a car on van wyck near JFK new york. A plane sailed right over the car and had us ducking it was so low. It barely cleared and landed.
I always know its gonna be bad whenever Mentour says "the weather outside was absolutely horrendous"
😀
My home airport! I love the approach in and how you're basically over houses until the last possible second before landing, but definitely has its issues--I'm kind of amazed there haven't been more incidents like this, all things considered. Great video; very informative and helps me put the pieces in order for this incident I've heard a bunch about but never fully understood.
I lived only 10 minutes away in a 2nd floor and the flights coming on seemed like they could land on the roof.
I LOVE how you explain everything in such detail, I love all things aviation and this is one of my FAVORITE channels. Thank you and Stay Safe
Phenomenal! This highlights the true complexity you pilots deal with, all the time. Also, are all of the technical people behind the scenes, that have an input into all of those calculations, and manuals. The vast majority of normal people, can't even drive a car properly.
Thank you.
I was living in Chicago at the time of this accident and I remember how very bad the conditions were at the time. My normal commute time was 25 minutes. That night, after waiting an hour at a coffee shop to let rush hour pass, it still took me another two hours to make it home.
Eighteen seconds seems like such a long time to realize the thrust reversers aren't doing anything. I know flying an airplane, particularly a big jet like this, can be pretty complicated and I could understand if it took them 18 seconds to remember to retract the landing gears after initiating a go-around. However, in this case, they really only had two things they needed to worry about once the wheels were on the runway: slowing down and steering. I'm not a pilot and maybe I'm missing something, but they only needed to steer with the rudder, make sure the auto brake was working and brake manually if not, and make sure the thrust reversers kick in within a reasonable amount of time, and there were two pilots to stay on top of it. They expected the runway to be slick so it's not like anything totally unexpected happened. I feel like I have more going on in my car when I'm making a routine stop at an intersection and I have to steer, brake, and downshift. (I don't have to downshift, but I like to do it anyway.) It's never taken me 18 seconds to realize I'm in the wrong gear.
this is such a good point. 18 seconds is a long time
Now imagine you've just moved from an automatic to a manual for the first time since you took your test years and years ago and this is your first drive out. Your going to make screwups as you struggle with making sure your using the clutch correctly. The distraction factor of the autobrake was clearly major factor once they where on the runway.
A car is pretty different. You can easily hear the engine revving up when you downshift. The pilots in a commercial jet sits fairly far from the engines and they are wearing very good headphones.
No, youre not missing anything! Should've realuzed it.
You sound like you would make an amazing pilot, just like every other armchair critic. Backseat drivers🤮
Your videos have taught me that a lot more goes into your standard passenger flight than I ever imagined. Pre-flight briefings, weather reports, 100s of checklists, landing calculations, fuel reserves, load sheets, and alternate airports to name just a few. My flight to Amsterdam Schiphol tomorrow will be be viewed in a very different light.
I watch all of your channel, im just wondering how long it takes to make an episode like this? Keep up the amazing professional work!!
Petter, I always look forward to your in-depth analysis of airline flight incidents. The way you explain the airline systems and policies is easy to understand for those of us who are not pilots. As the Safety Coordinator for the Police Crime Lab for which I work, I understand the need for understanding safety manuals and following procedures. Keep up the great videos.
Awesome work Mentor. Although I seen many of these accidents elsewhere, I much rather seeing them here. Thanks
All your videos are very professional, and your explanations are so concise and clear, and very well narrated. I enjoy your videos. Thank you.
As a pilot, how do you reconcile the death of others due one’s own mistakes? Is there a system in place to help pilots with the psychological impact?
"As a pilot, how do you reconcile the death of others due one’s own mistakes?"
Robin, in my opinion most aviation incidents are rarely the fault of one individual. In this case the training the pilots received from the airlines was probably partially to blame. As someone else said the ATC system should have reported runway braking conditions as "poor".....the conservative figure. The software program defaulted the tail wind to 5 knots without really flagging that to the pilots. These airliners are complex transportation systems. A LOT goes into a flight from point A to point B. There is literally an army of people behind the scenes and onboard the aircraft to make it happen.
Thank you for this fantastic video and history, Petter.
Thank you for supporting Svein!
Nice job on the improved cockpit views and animations!
And happy to see that this chapter transition image is not spoiling too much the outcome of the incident :)
Thank you for making these videos ❤
I wish the flights I book were as punctual as your uploads
Well… sometimes I miss it with a day or two 😂
Thank you for watching!
I fly into/out of Midway all the time. I’m always mindful of how short the runway is and that there are crowded neighborhoods at the end of the runway.
You do get a good look at a Burger King too coming in lol. I've flown in there so many times. Super short.
Another excellent episode. I grew up near Midway Airport. Lots of strange air events back in those days. 1970's and 1980's. Midway's location in the heart of the city must be a challenge.
Wow im amazed how great and informative this video was
I grew up near Midway. Because of that I have deliberately never used Midway, even though it would have been cheaper and more convenient than O'Hare. Honestly, I was never relaxed even driving by Midway.
It's teeny tiny and totally hemmed in.
@@K1OIK its a small airport thats why southwest lands there. i use to fly from midway a lot and can confirm that this is true
I was an Emergency Manager for OEMC-Chicago and surprised by how many incidents occur on a daily basis (smoke/fire, engine issues, fuel issues, etc...)...yes daily. The weather is some of the most unpredictable in the country, with winds in the loop (downtown) area often exceeding 50-70mph. Often enough to where we had emergency action plans to shut down streets and sidewalks because scaffolding and glass could get ripped off of buildings if winds exceeded 70mph. Landing in these conditions must be...."challenging".
O'Hare and Chicago Executive are far outside the city center. Midway is smack dab in the middle of Chicago's dense and busy industrial neighborhood of Garfield Ridge/West Lawn. Thankfully events like this are exceedingly rare.
This accident actually lead to the firing of a CPD sergeant who took a photo of herself posing in front of the wreckage. I'm not sure if she was one of the first responders or if she had just shown up later that evening to see the plane for herself, but it was not in good taste to be using the crash of a jet onto a city street as a chance to get a photo op, especially when it ended up killing a child.
Definitely in poor taste. I worked for CPD as well, long after this incident though. We were always told that we are one camera phone away from an indictment. Silly that some people have to be reminded by this. Tough job, but every organization has their 10%.
the 50-70 mph downtown is true, but that's due to the wind tunnel effect of the high buildings. Not just the windspeed, but that it is whipped around by the skyscrapers. Not the case outside the loop. What are the actual conditions at Midway?
planes and planes and planes
I really enjoy watching these videos. I spent 34 years as a US Navy flight surgeon. During this time I participated in multiple aircraft accident investigations. Many of them involved Marine helicopters with fatalities. I was also involved in making sure my pilots and aircrew were safe to fly. Unfortunately also all of our investigations revealed human factors as the most important reason for the crash. My last assignment was to a squadron that used the McDonald-Douglas C-9B and later transitioned to the military version of the 737-700. I spent many hours on the jump seat and have the utmost respect for my pilots and their skills. Keep up the good work!
Amazing quality detailed content, yet you put it in a such a simple way.
I am not a pilot, I have a question - Why do planes land so deep into the available paved runway especially with poor braking conditions? It seems like it would make sense to use as much runway and touch down as early as possible. This channel and content is awesome, thanks!
If you try landing at the very beginning of a runway, you run the risk of coming too low and crashing before the runway, which might have trees or even buildings. When you feel it's necessary, though, it's absolutely part of the "short field landing" technique.
@@TheHenryFilms Also, in addition to the landing low or early issue, most people don't realize that the big jets take a while to accelerate up and there is lag, so if a pilot was aiming low and then was coming in even lower than that, increasing thrust might not provide enough additional lift to make it to the runway if they were already trying to land early. It is hard to judge exactly when inputs don't immediately respond and output is delayed.
the reason is simply to prevent routine undershoot, which itself can be disastrous if before tarmac start.....however...
Emergency landing protocol should permit a large % of this area (preferably automatically, using height, distance & speed feedback with possible pilot over rule)
@@TheHenryFilms are you a pilot?
@@gruanger are you a pilot?
Love the videos...but when I heard of the death of the poor little child, it really saddened me.
I really like and admire your passion for aviation and teaching. Well done.
Very informative! Keep up the good work!
The quality of content has been great recently , keep it up, thanks
Imagine living at the house at the end of the runway. Every Winter could be your last. 😰
The $300 per month rent is worth the risk.
I've been binge-watching your videos for a couple of months now---they are beyond fabulous. I notice that you haven't made a video on the Air New Zealand Mount Erebus disaster in 1979. I'd love to see you analyze that incident, as my uncle was the McDonnell Douglas rep on the crash scene. He was chief engineer (or something to that effect) on the DC-10 & I recall hearing my father say that my uncle was really shattered by the experience & the aftermath. Your take on it would be very interesting & enlightening.
Loved the explanation of all the phases of landing. I’ve always wondered how pilots aim to land on the runway! Beautiful animations as well!!
Another interesting explanation and though I don't know anything, I try to listen to your explanation attentively. Good work by the team!! Thank you for this, captain!!
The reverser thing sounds really odd - extra concentration required to both activate, wait a few seconds, then go to full tilt. Why not permit full extension and have the full procedure to reach the set level occur automatically?
meh cause then they wouldn't have to work as hard that's why🤣🤣🤣
In fact it should be automatic and not even require pilot input. As soon as the aircraft touches down safely, the reverse thrust activates. Take the human equation out of it completely. Also integrate AI so the aircraft warms you based on info from tower, that you can’t land on the runway
@@bluepurplepink if a go around is needed, it would add to the time before sleeve is back, engines can spool up. That's why. It has to be manual decision.
@@bluepurplepink Have you seen this pilot's other video about what happens when thrust reversers accidentally deploy in flight? No way should that be triggered automatically
@@bluepurplepink well once the reverser deploys you can't go around anymore. So no it shouldn't be automatic.
Very instructive video! I didn’t understand how necessary it was for pilots to make complex calculations before landing!
I know this summer you will be very busy but do you think you could one day make a video on the 1954 De Havilland Comet crashes ? They had huge influence on aviation safety.
Thank you. One of your best so far.
Wow... every video Petter releases is looking better and better... so much attention to detail! Really appreciate it!
Landing at speed of 124 nautical miles per hour (about 230 km/h) and trying to brake on slippery road is going to be sketchy no matter how you do it. Even in a passanger car with winter tires, that could require maybe 2000 meters in very slippery conditions.
You aren’t kidding there. The one time that I had to drive in blizzard conditions at night on slippery roads… Well because I started out in a big empty car park I actually tested my car’s performance and how different everything felt by basically sliding on purpose while I had space and safety to try.
Even after that testing I was still scared but had to do it anyway or be stuck in a very cold situation. Obviously I survived and got home safely but because my street was quite a steep hill I parked at the top where the road was flat and walked the rest. Still one of the hairier situations I’ve ever been in.
If only passenger cars had thrust reversers. 😉
@@skyhawk_4526 That might have helped! Having a way to stop that didn’t rely on friction might have helped.
On the other hand I opted to drive no faster than 20mph unless I was having to build up speed in order to clear the crest of the hill, which I’d learnt from Ice Road Truckers of all things. But until that night I really didn’t have the full idea of exactly how much vehicles skid on ice. Where I live snow is really uncommon and barely happens once or twice a year. An actual howling blizzard after a few cold nights to form ice is virtually unheard of and I was still young enough to have never driven on ice before that night.
Yet, thinking “this might be sketchy, I’m going to test this while I’m in a safe place” probably also really helped. And recognising my limits first. “So I probably could go down my street and reach my home safely, but I don’t know if I have the skill to drive out tomorrow and the bottom of the street is probably going to be blocked by the cars of people who had to bail. Better if I leave it on a flat bit of terrain and walk the rest.”
But the idea of being in a much bigger vehicle that flies, goes way too fast and no real ability to turn into a skid is even scarier.
Oh wow, would you look at that, runway 31C on MDW is just barely under 2000 meters long :P
On a more serious note, true. From this perspective it does make it sound less realistic, but that's coming from a person who doesn't use knots or feet daily, so the numbers - while consistently used in and between videos - do go slightly above my head for actually *understanding* the actual figures they represent.
I don't mean to question your calcs but yea, sb 400-500m 'slack' depending on trau-0 where the plane was supposed to be sticking in or sliding into the tarmac; and it did burn up some runway when it finally did
Around 1975 I was a passenger on a 737 (?) landing at Andrews AFB near DC. The weather was wet and icy. We touched down then immediately pulled back up and away from the runway (and the AF base). We were unaware there was a serious problem until it was announced that we were diverting to BWI, about 50 miles away. We later heard a rumor that the tires had "slipped" when they touched down. I've always wondered how close we were to serious trouble.
The fist time I
You and your team do extraordinary work with these videos. Each one is so engaging. Thanks for the discount for Curiosity.
Thanks peter for your videos,appreciate all the work that you do so we i can enjoy these videos thanks
Have to say, years ago I had heard Southwest bought their 737’s with a minimum of options but I’m really surprised they usually didn’t have auto brakes.
I usually listen to these while at work, and am blown away by the animation in your newer stuff. What do you do for animation? Is it some simulator, or is it edited completely raw by someone? Either way, we need more of these crash recaps! I’ve listened to almost all of them, I need more!
In this video, they are using Microsoft Flight Simulator (AKA: MSFS2020 or FS2020) along with the separately purchased Boeing 737-700 model made by PMDG (Precision Manuals Development Group) which offers very high-quality realistically modeled aircraft for various flight simulator programs.
Every time I watch your videos my heartrate goes up. And it's not due to the events themsekves but also due to your excellent storytelling skills.
As always, fascinating stuff 👌🏽👌🏽