Forecast Update - April 9, 2024 - Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Underway
Вставка
- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to the Storm Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A significant severe weather outbreak is underway today across the southern US. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from central/eastern Texas into western Louisiana today. Several rounds of severe storms are likely, including ongoing convection along and north of an outflow boundary from overnight storms. Any storms that can remain along and south of the boundary will foster a threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. Convective coverage will increase drastically overnight, leading to tomorrow's severe threat across Louisiana and Mississippi, where a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) has been outlined. The main severe threat tomorrow will come from the ongoing QLCS, which could have some intense damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, some of which could be strong, embedded within the line. If discrete supercells can develop ahead of the line, they would have the best shot at producing significant/long-track tornadoes.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: / convectivechronicles
Facebook: / convectivechronicles
X: / convchronicles
Instagram: / convectivechronicles
Chapters
0:00 Introduction
4:10 Discussion of today's risk
22:06 Discussion of tomorrow's risk
28:48 Discussion of Thursday's risk
30:49 CAM analysis for today's risk
37:39 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
“Hey everybody, Trey here” has become such a staple in my own personal forecasting/model analysis. Your work on all the discussions is very much appreciated. Cheers from B’ham, Al 🙏🏻
Thank you so much!
Same here, Trey has taught me so much
Had my attention completely focused on tonight; was not expecting a moderate risk tomorrow. Those are some crazy hodographs. Also, as a non-American, I find it awesome when you say 'real estate' to describe the conditions.
I wanted to thank you for your in depth cloud review for the eclipse yesterday. I live in Central Ohio, northwest of Columbus and we were in the path. You forecast was on the money. High cirrus that did not obscure the view in any serious way. Was fantastic to get to see it and I was amazed at just how fast the 3 minutes went by. Was a very special thing and I am thrilled to read below that you got to see it also. And thank you for your in depth review on the weather. So much knowledge well spoken.
Thank you so much! I'm so glad you got to experience the eclipse in all its glory!
I wasn't expecting a day 2 moderate when I checked the SPC. But I get why the SPC issued it.
But hey, that day 7 is looking pretty decent this far out.
Was there a day 7 outlook? Whats it looking like?
audio is fine for me. just close and reopen.
Fixed it, thanks
I closed out of UA-cam and this video and it didn't work, I had to completely restart my tablet and come back
outflow boundary is your word of the day
Love watching your videos!! I love how much info you pack into the videos helps me learn more and make my own forecast for severe weather in Indiana around me! Keep killing it brother!!
Thank you so much!
James Spann said he thought the forecast was "aggressive" and I am hoping that he is right. I am in the corner of the Panhandle near Georgia and I am hoping for some rain early to stabilize the air because while I am not a fan of tornadoes, I am a 100%, with vehemence, not a fan of nocturnal tornadoes. I appreciate you, Trey! Thank you for all that you do to keep us informed and safe.
Thank you! I agree with James; I think it’s a little aggressive, but I can see why they went with the upgrade. Hopefully, storm mode and other factors keep the overall risk at bay.
Tomorrow looks crazy I’m actually worried
I expected to wake up to a wall of rain here in the Birmingham Metro which is what I thought the models had hinted at. But, it’s a lot more clear than I was expecting. Wondering if this will have an impact on the main event this afternoon.
Interestingly the SPC has trimmed back the ENH threat on their latest update more to the southwest of Tuscaloosa-Bham corridor.
Gonna be an interesting day, hope everyone stays safe.
Thanks for the info Trey!
Should be an interesting setup today.
Also I hope you enjoyed the eclipse yesterday!
(I had to watch streams to see it 🥲)
Yes, the eclipse was incredible!
Not liking that CAP on the observed sounding in Louisiana today, we'll see how that affects tomorrow's threat and whether or not it moves east into Mississippi
Can’t wait for the Monday, central Oklahoma video!! Looking pretty interesting 🤔
It’s looking VERY interesting
This guy has the voice of the Khan academy guy. But instead it's weather.
This comment just blew my mind because it’s so true!
@@joshuahake4274 Lmao ikr
Awesome watch as always! Eyes will be glued following along these next 2 days for sure! As we saw from the last MDT event that spawned 70+ tornadoes, these things can mean business!
Thank you!! You’re absolutely right; these can mean business!
Thanks Trey, loving your daily updates and looking at the possible factors that may inhibit severe weather. Is the low in the mid west causing this system to move so slowly across the southern states?
Thank you! Not really; sometimes you get a little bit of energy that gets “separated” from the main flow and gets cut off. That seemed to happen in this case, but now we’re starting to see it eject into the southern US.
The moderate risk region seems to represent significant winds, although the northern side definitely looks like greater helicity tracks for tornadoes, although if antecedent convection interferes we might see what happened on april 2nd where the untapped environment may be on the outer extent of the threat, where the conditions persist for discrete, semi discrete supercells.
10 am supercells, sounds like it’s going be an interesting day.
At first i had no audio was afraid it was my device lol but I restarted my tablet and now sound is fine
It’s a UA-cam glitch as it’s processing the video. It usually just takes a page refresh and then it works.
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah i had tried to just go out of youtube and back in but it didn't work. But when I completely restarted it the audio was fine
It happens to me from time to time. I just close everything out and open YT and it works again
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on these set-ups i woke up this morning and checked the outlook's like i do every morning and I woke up to see a day 2 moderate risk and i was kinda shocked about it due to the storm mode i think the damaging Winds will steal the show the storm mode just looks messy but thanks for clearing this up
Thank you! I agree; intense damaging winds should be the main threat, but we could see a few stronger spinups within the line and with any discrete activity ahead of it.
Your welcome!!! Glad we can agree@@ConvectiveChronicles
Idk if it is just me but I think ur audio might be bugged can't really hear it at all when I listen, don't know if it's a UA-cam thing or not, just noticed that on this video in particular.
It’s just a UA-cam glitch, it should be fine if you refresh
Refreshed my video and I now have audio.
I think that’s a UA-cam bug after last update. I get that a lot on diffrent vid
Well.......Trey, that was a bit of a surprise. I think I remember yesterday saying to watch for the MDT to be a possibility but holy crap I didn't think they'd pull the trigger on it this early. It's very interesting in a way what the models are doing with this but man the parameters looks pretty wild for tomorrow and actually today is not a day to sleep on with a hatched 10% in TX/LA for tornadoes. It's remarkable how much April went full tilt on the calendar month into one outbreak to another. Actually as of the new update the 10% tornado risk was expanded a bit. Just remarkable stuff we are seeing this month. Again....if this is April.....and we got May-June to still do, and it's been THIS nuts so far....we may be looking at a top 5 or 3 tornado year by the end of it.
I do agree there is a chance for the mode tomorrow to be a bit messy but the 12z HRRR is showing the southern supercells on the mass to have almost no issues with warm inflow and stuff for them and so we could be seeing a significant tornado day develop and many long track and destructive tornadoes if this trend keeps up. Hodographs coming in for what to expect tomorrow are some of the more crazy ones I have seen since 3/31 last year. One thing I want to keep an eye on is will this mode be another messy mess like it was on the last tornado outbreak last week or will these be more discrete and more photobombing tornadoes and not fully rain wrapped. I have a bad feeling there's a chance these have a chance to be rain wrapped beasts but if the HRRR is trying to show what it wants, then some of these will be fully discrete and you'll see it all.
As for Thursday, the bi-modal set up, I'd be more eyeing the Southern mode obviously with the energy that has still to work with but I will not be surprised to see the Northern mode to tornado produce one or 2. Just a very powerful system this is and we are just starting what looks to be a stupidly insane active tornado season.
2004 started slow, then ramped up on steroids by May
Did the Day 1 ENH risk for Texas/Louisiana wind up producing any tornadoes? I tried keeping up with Ryan Hall's stream for awhile at work, but it seemed like more of a heavy rain producer than anything. Perhaps that bodes well for the Wednesday forecast underperforming as well.
It was very underwhelming, I think because most of the storms formed north of the pertinent boundaries, as we discussed in the video. Nothing really fired south of the boundary in the warm sector; rather they remained elevated north of it.
I understood some of these words
I know the 6z and 12z HRRR runs are showing more of a semi discrete mode in the MDT for tomorrow, however you can’t really trust CAMs a day or two before the event because they’ll almost always change. But still, the potential exists for semi discrete supercells tomorrow.
nothing i look forward to more than Trey videos
I was so early the quality was at 360p
Man spc just firing the moderate canon early and often lol i dont see it, not with all this rain currently. Looking for flies on this ointment. What say you trey
I think a very messy storm mode will preclude a bigger tornado event. Damaging winds will certainly be a concern.
Any shot of a high risk tomorrow?
Doesn’t appear likely
Excuse me can you tell me what Johnson City is looking like for today tomorrow and Thursday
You should be fine if you mean Johnson City Tennessee. You're in the marginal risk area for tomorrow and Thursday but most you should have is a very slight chance of severe hail. Everything else is staying south of you so really just a chance for a storm today, tomorrow and Thursday
@@peachxtaehyung thank you so much I was talking about Tennessee I literally have the Tennessee logo as my pic lol
@@michaelbanks1230 lol sorry I didn't notice your profile pic plus people anywhere can be a fan of the Tennessee Titans there's even some who are, here in Texas 😂 but no problem! You should be prepared just in case but it definitely looks like most of everything will be well to your south besides maybe some general storms and rain
Why does northern Texas have a giant hole near Wichita Falls when looking at Surface data?
There's unfortunately limited coverage of weather stations in that area
where can i find the sounding for my city???
Observed soundings aren’t done for every city, but you can go to any model on weather.cod.edu and click on your city to get the modeled sounding for that area
@@ConvectiveChronicleslouisville ky??
@@micheledianemiller4589 Find Louisville on your model of choice on the College of DuPage site and click on it to get a sounding
So a derecho
No, I don’t think it’ll meet the criteria
Dont forget to smash that like button, peeps. Helps with the youtube algo.
Someone mentioned a "bomb cyclone" maybe happening Friday April 12th on the east coast. I live in Central Virginia and I hope no "bomb cyclone."
The low will certainly be deepening rapidly across the eastern half of the country, but I don't know about a "bomb" cyclone.
Im concerned about tomorrow.. it's not looking good it seems
It looks pretty nasty but storm might thankfully preclude a greater long track tornado risk
SPC is throwing out Moderates fairly frequently. 2 in the past week. hopefully, if anything does happen, it's over a field.
and I'll be watching on Thursday, especially. might be in the line of fire again. we will see!
3* moderate April 1rst and 2nd and April 10th
With these kinematics in play, definitely hoping for open field tornadoes
@@LeviW133 oh yea my bad. i lumped the 1st and second together.
Dang. Talk about nuances and conditional. At best maybe a few stronk QLCS nadoes given the flaws you highlighted in questionable open warm sector development. Always interesting.
Hey Trent, here we go. Cape of s about to bust?
Not sure what you mean?
I hope you got to see the eclipse. Television and photos and videos ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DO IT JUSTICE!! It is a life changing experience. God is just incredible and can never thank him enough for allowing me the privilege of seeing such magnificence.
I did! Better than any tornado I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen some good ones