My 2024 Tech Predictions (AI, VR, Cameras and more)
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- Опубліковано 2 лип 2024
- 2023 was a great year for technology (even if it was a bit rough for software). 2024 is looking even crazier.
CHECK OUT MY DEV PREDICTIONS: • How Programming Will C...
Why 2023 Was Awful For Software: • 2023: The Year Of Ensh...
0:00 - Intro
0:48 - Software (AI and whatnot)
9:02 - Cameras (Panasonic simping)
17:59 - Hardware (Steam Deck, VR and more)
Shoutout Phase for the edit 🙏 - Наука та технологія
The patent take was just wrong.
The patent is owned by masimo corp which isn't a patent troll. It's a actual healthcare company shipping actual medical devices.
Before making the sensor on their own apple was in talks to work with them but later deicded to poach the employees from masimo. The patent apple filed for their sensor was under the name of one of the masimo employee. So no it's not a patent trolling, its trying the hug of death and failing.
A company should be allowed to patent their innovations, but i agree that the timelines on the patent expiry should be less, especially if someone isn't actively using it.
Theo's Apple fanboyism is always on display 😂
@@marvnchit's not wise to assign the label in this situation. its more likely that he really hates patent trolls, so when he sees something being shutdown because of patent, first instinct is patent troll. theo is still wrong i believe
It's not a zero-sum game. Both things can be true.
@@BigFatCone of course! some of the other things he said about apple lead me the wrong way
@@aiyazmostofa1501 Sadly it seems like patent trolling is par for the course. All big players are doing it. And I think that stiffles innovation more than pretty much any EU regulation will.
Great takes overall. I do disagree on the EU take: I think compatibility is more important than quality. Apple has had years to switch to USB-C and to work with others on RCS. They didn't because they don't have to. This behaviour of Apple keeping their special incompatible standards is hurting competition. Also, your point of companies not working together is also wrong. RISC-V is a consortium effort, Linux is an effort of many companies right now and the QUIC and HTTP/3 is also a group effort.
Dead right about companies working together. It can sure _seem_ like they're doing nothing but going at each other's throats, but the US standards organizations like ANSI, ASME, etc are being quietly crowdfunded by massive American companies who absolutely know that better standards means better products, which means more people buy them, which means more money.
Correct. My thoughts exactly.
Exactly this. Every country should take the EU as a role model in terms of regulations. Reality has proven that the market and companies do not regulate themselves if they don't have to.
i think he makes a great, great and interesting take at the eu wanting unified port, it is true i live there, it stiffles innovation, it's like the eu really just think it's the end all be all of connectivity and nothing else will ever come after usb c, they are heavily invested in this port to be universal and never changing, this is a dystopic dictatorial looking choice.
@@imaginalex5850 Nah, adoption of USB-C is still slow and will takes years. Apple would never (as in the next 10 years) adopt USB-C in their products because it makes their walled overpriced garden a little bit open. That's the real reason - lack of monetary incentive - to not innovate. Technically adept crowd goes with better hardware and peroformance/price ratio almost all of the time. Meanwhile Apple's target audience are the people finessed into thinking 8gb ram is better than 16gb lol - and I'm saying this as both iPhone Pro Max and Pixel Pro owner.
It seems like EU is the only thing standing between people and US oligopoly (eg pricing goods at 1-to-1 USD to EUR conversion when dollar is much weaker). Overall, his EU take is made from American point of view. Meanwhile, US acts like it's the most important in the world and try to regulate everyone and everything (eg SEC outreach) while taking political donations (also known as bribes in the rest of the civilized world) to push regulations that outright hurt customers.
And I'm pretty sure Apple did much worse patent trolling than the provided examples.
Come on Theo, I believe the money, they make from the accessories industry was the main driver for not changing the port. Also if we need a new port they can add a second one like we used to have before Apple made it popular to have a single port. A standard charging port doesn't mean we can have a second one if a speciallized need arizes
Eu didn't enforce the usb-c standard to be clear. It required the industry to agree on one standard, and then appointed the USB forum to decide on the current standard. They are able to upgrade it in the future without eu legislating. As I understand it, as a Swede.
That’s the same thing with extra steps
@@SoggyBagelzif this is true, it literally invalidates Theo's take. Not the same 😂
@@Dimkar3000it doesn’t really though. Theo’s take is that this stifles innovation. Requiring a forum to agree based on multiple parties in the industry agreeing on a new standard makes innovation much slower.
@@jrobthehuman ok fair, but how are we supposed to innovate more on a charging port. If a new usage arises then just add another port, like we used to have before Apple made it popular to have a single port for everything
@@jrobthehuman Yes and no. USB was a widely used standard anyways. If anything new comes up it will be through the USB forum. Companies already invest there so if they need a new standard they will fund it and eventually get there.
It isn't even that unlikely that at the end the next USB standard will be wireless one.
Being in software for 30 years, I've seen enshittification constantly, and its GOOD! It guaranties that incumbents get dethroned over time and give small upcoming products chance to thrive. At the end of the day software products are tools and software services are people. They come and go.
About the Epic VS Apple battle, the Vision Pro SDK is already released and UE5 can build for M2 hardware, so I don't think there is much stopping anyone from releasing a Unreal Engine built game for the AVP.
That being said, Apple partnered with Unity for XR experiences, so they will provide more support for Unity. But how much more support is yet to be seen.
"RISC architecture is going to change everything."
Angelina Jolie, Hackers (1995)
It kinda did though. Look at Apple and pretty much any portable device that isn't a full computer.
20:00 Xbox series s is a 4 tflop machine, Quest 3 is a 2.4 tflop machine. Not sure I’d call that equal power 🤷🏼♂️
The apple meat riding is crazy.
Along with mentioning ARM, Apple and intel, Another important point to be noted is that ARM licenses it's architecture pretty openly, which means there will be a lot more competition. Unlike Intel and AMD duopoly, Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, Google, Mediatek and a lot more companies make ARM processors and a lot more companies will join. And that competition will hopefully drive more innovation
The first camera I actually bought myself was a panasonic GH4 it was such a steal.
Video quality only good on the iPhone? Have you ever tried the Xperia 1 V?
Just took a computer architecture course at uni taught in RISC-V. Pretty cool. I think it’s not farfetched to say Apple might adopt it eventually; there’s huge incentive. Good video 👍🏻
Isn't ARM just RISC-V? I know it's probably much more complex than that, but I have no idea how far ARM is from the RISC-V standard. And Apple has 1000% embraced ARM and SOC for everything, so yeah, 100% this.
I'm not sure I agree on livestreaming. I think live streaming by itself has pretty much always been bad for growth besides some rare moments in time that people go lucky in. Even back when I started using twitch over a decade ago, popular people seemed to be either youtube lets players converting their audience over, or groups of people collectively building communities and sharing audiences. I feel this has been pretty consistent and will stay so. Being a new solo streamer sucks, but if you have an existing audience from another platform or work in a group like offline TV, Vshojo, Hololive etc. (corpo or not) then it can be a nice source of income and revenue.
RCS is fully e2ee. Apple's adopted a version of it that is not.
Doesnt sony have a phone that records video with really good quality?
The mkbhd podcast covered the apple watch issue - from their coverage, my personal impression was that apple did mess up
Back to back 30+ minute episodes? Dude, I'm in. Yes.
🥰
11:50 as someone who has a Sony α7R IV I can definitely understand that the menu is just bad. However, if you want to try to make it work for you you could potentially workaround it by adding the 2 settings you want to toggle to your "custom/my menu" section or whatever it’s called. If they’re right below each other it would be viable (even if still annoying) to toggle them both to change the framerate
I really hope Sony will one day make good software for their amazing hardware... The touchscreen is so laughably underused, it’s literally only for selecting where you want to focus...
The global shutter feature won't be coming to other cameras any time soon. The original A9 launched in April 2017 was the first full-frame mirrorless camera with a stacked sensor and that technology is still limited to the Canon R3, Sony A9 (I and II), Sony A1, Nikon Z9 and Nikon Z8, all cameras costing around $4000 or more. Also, the global shutter seems to have some limitations when it comes to dynamic range, which is slightly less relevant in sports photography.
On the other hand, Panasonic have declared that they are using a new sensor and image processor on the S5 II and it's quite likely that it's manufactured by the same company as the ones in the GH6 and G9 II, but they have not disclosed their partner so far and it's a bit odd because everybody knew that their other cameras use Sony sensors. And, since we're talking about predictions, Panasonic has just announced that their ProAV division (which owns their VariCam cinema camera line-up) and their consumer division (which owns their Lumix cameras) will merge, which might mean that Panasonic will have some very interesting offerings on the video side in the next couple of years.
Software has been declining for 15+ years. Tauri and Electron being used for actual products just shows that people don't care about making high technical quality products.
Electron has no more to do with the quality of the resulting app than Unity has to do with the quality of the resulting game. It is merely easier than ever to make a bad app, just like Unity made it really easy to make a bad game. Blame the devs or their management for bad apps, don't blame the engine they built it on. They chose that engine because it's a quality engine, full stop.
There are massive differences. It is impossible to make an electron app that is semi-performant, you can make a decently performant game in Unity. Also, building a custom game engine is a much harder task than making ur own custom 2d UI library. I can build a 2d UI library for my app that runs better than electron (and supports everything I'd need) much more easily than building a performant game engine (depending on the game). Also, unity has way more features that I might need for a game compared to the features u would need building a 2D UI application. There are also many Unity games that are amazing, there are literally 0 electron apps that are amazing. @@mage3690
OMG I knew I liked you for some other reason than coding. I am a global Beat Saber gal myself. Crazy good and the way I got better was training my brain to work like a computer.. error messaging myself instead of allowing mess ups to affect me.
Omg I love this so much
Dead serious, just one of many C.S. techniques I use to reprogram my brain.
Other favorites are Garbage in, Garbage out - shoveling high quality books rewritten in shorthand, then played on audible at 3x the speed 😂 As well as the trick of doing a hardcore study sesh of something insanely hard to comprehend then play Beat Saber at fastest speed, expert + with disappearing arrows... get that adrenaline rush and boom knowledge hack unlocked. Adrenaline rushes causes that information to stick. Heard it on Lex Fridman so it must be true😜 I have an addiction to efficient learning @@theorants
I don't care whether or not the eu forced apple to use usb-c. the negative sentiment around them changing the port you talked about could've been easily avoided if they announced it like the upgrade it is. People having to buy different charging cable than literally every other modern electronic device is producing e-waste. If apple wants their users to be happy about it they could've used the full potential of usb-c and not intentionally throttle it for the non pro devices. They could've also added fast charging or something of that sorts and if they're so keen on their users not creating e-waste they can ship an adapter to those who currently have a non usb-c iphone. I agree with most of what you said but when you started playing it out like apple is a victim here and not a gatekeeping obnoxious brat you missed the mark.
Amazing hot take Theo. I’m super excited about RISC-V. I learned this in UC Berkeley and was wondering when it will emerge in the industry. It will truly change the chip industry.
If Jim Keller is optimistic about RISC than so am I
Although I'm worry if the changes to USB-C will actually hurt innovation, let's not hide the fact Apple was forced to give a better port to their users, they like to create that environment of exclusicity even if that means a worse experience for users.
The new Marques Brownlee video was shot on iphone and it looks great.
I wonder if you would recommend someone with an old android phone who wants to do youtube buy an iphone 15 pro instead of a standalone camera such as a $2000 panasonic?
Start with what you have. If it does watchable 1080, and you put out watchable content, people will watch.
12:37 Editor: wrong product. He’s talking about the S5 II, you’re showing the S5.
Having owned several VR sets I can confidently say it is never going anywhere, no killer apps and it induces headaches
It needs to be lighter as well
This guys is just an apple fan 😂😂😂😂
Is your argument for Apple not adopting the industry standard USB-C genuinely that Apple users are too stupid to comprehend the switch to what has been the industry standard port for the past half a decade? and yes quite literally the USB standard is set when a bunch of companies get together and decide on a new standard.
Apple's MO is pushing new tech like iMessage or lighting charging then keeping the new tech well beyond the point where doing so makes any sense for the pure reason of keeping their walled garden.
Completely disagree on your shallow take about the EU regulations negatively impacting innovation. The primary motivation that drives innovation is to solve a problem that has not been solved before, the incentives to market that innovation follows that process. I see a pattern with your pro-apple takes where you go out of your way to defend apple as if Apple has been the biggest innovation force the humanity has ever seen. In reality, apple has only been good at marketing and packaging those innovation arguablly better in many cases.
Apple should park the money truck at Carmack's house and let him assemble his own dream team to make a game engine based on Metal + Swift
34:15 - Apple M series, not Intel M series
Sony's "Cinema camera" the $4000 FX3 doesn't have shutter angle, open gate and any decent exposure tools.
Sony are excellent at innovation but not very good making their tech user friendly.
Also about the Global shutter, it'll take some time to make it into video cameras due to IQ downsides currently.
More Importantly the EU Regulation is non exclusive, so for IMessage there won't even be an actual change they are already "forced" to support SMS and thier own shit works in parallel, that's still allowed. The USB law is a bit more messy but Apple is allowed to plaster 17 Lightning Ports all over the phone as long there is a way to charge it via USB-PD
And yes Multiple-Ports on phones is weird so there likely be a little slow down, but as you said Lighting was 10 Years so... not interfering with a high speed market. And as it happened with USB-C too such Innovation is made with PCs and Laptops and can then be moved to phones. But also there actually are more experimental (or say innovative) phones with multiple ports (although currently it's just more USB).
I'd argue if Apple actually cared about e-waste they'd have switched off lighting years ago so people will stop buying them.
I know that that wasn't the only point or even the main point there, it's just that seeing for-profit companies as caring about environmental issues is usually bullshit. They care as much as it'll profit them.
13:07 that's a misleading demonstration of open gate recording, you do not gain that much real estate, only on the top and and bottom of standard the 16:9 4k recording
I'm also pretty worried about the EU regulations limiting innovation. Sure, USB-C is great, I love having it on my iPhone but I hate that it was forced. We might see a new connector in like 15 years after USB-C is blatantly insufficient for most devices (like micro USB). A lot of this is Apple's fault though, their unwillingness to adapt and greed is forcing a ton of legislation to be enacted and due to other forces, that legislation sometimes sucks. If Apple had put the port on the 13 Pro/14 Pro or at least announced that it was planned, the laws might not have passed. Same with their 30% take, if they weren't so greedy and did loosen it up somewhat to make things fair, there wouldn't be the whole Epic lawsuit and Digital Markets Act. I find it hard to feel sorry for them but it sucks that they did kinda ruin it for everyone else.
F Apple. Imagine how many times their lawyers have gone after others!
Honestly even though it is true that innovation will slow down because of all of the regulation, at this point I'm not sure exactly how bad that is. I feel like part of all the societal issues we've had over the years is partly because we just move too fast and change too fast to actually catch when problems appear until it's too large to change. How much improvement has social media really brought to the world relative to what we've lost?
I definitely didnt enjoy games or my computer that much less as a kid on windows xp and a ps2 than I do now, so we could've gotten to where we're at now 10 years later and I wouldnt have really thought of it as a problem.
The white speck on your moustache is driving me mad.
You are being waaaay too charitablr with apple. Ewaste is a core problem to make decisions until suddenly it isn't. If ewaste is why they were waiting on moving to usbc then why is the battery of the phone itself impossible to change by the user? Why is there no headphone jack? Ewaste is a convenient excuse for whatever brings them more money but it's suddenly not a problem when it costs them.
I think apple didnt adopt usb c sooner on iPhones because they wanted to go portless, so it would make no sense to have a stopgap of 2-3 years of usb c just to go portless after that.
and it makes sense, they have all this magsafe ecosystem now, so the switch would be mostly painless, because by the time of the switch a lot of people would already have magsafe accessories.
I love Edge because of it's Edge Workspace and group
And Twitch announced quiting Korea😂
Love your videos but not a fan of this one. I'm here mostly to get inspiration on the web and other technologies. Some of the information regarding the patents and EU regulations seem very polarised and unfair as a result. Apple is well known for stealing ideas. Auto-siding with them and saying that their patent infringements are necessary for innovation is disappointing from what appears to be a tech channel. If we, as the community, want to support the innovation, it's in our collective interest to make sure that the inventors are recognised and compensated for their efforts. Apple was not alone to develop USB C. Trashtaking the EU regulations without looking deep into the subject doesn't paint a good picture for the video either.
Having said that, still appreciate you sharing the insights on the other topics.
The EU should be a role model for all other countries world wide in terms of regulations. They already do much less than they should do, but most countries don't even to the absolute minimum, especially the US. Reality has proven that companies never innovate or regulate themselves for the benefit of the customer, but only for their own benefit. So having government doing at least the absolute minimum in terms of regulation is much appreciated.
Let me tell you a joke: "Apple cares about it's customers and the environment"
I disagree on USB C - I agree it's risky to let a gov take charge on what to use, but the sentiment that Apple would've done it themselves doesn't stand a chance.
The argument of old peripherals being a e-waste was now or later issue that had to happen at some point. As a company that is at the root of anti Right to Repair movement, serializing the magnetic sensor of the newest laptop lids, they don't have grounds to support what they "preach."
Even besides that, Apple had years to move on but instead asked for hefty certification fee for forever, and the fact that third party dongle doesn't work on a USB C laptop predisposes me to believe that Apple is not interested in "saving the planet" or "for better user experience," but for their bottom line.
I am not asking them to be charitable or that companies should not make profit, just don't go out preaching what you don't believe in.
These types of virtue signaling sickens me to the core and it's the reason why I avoid their products like plague even when I know their stuff is probably the best choice in the category.
lets not forget ipad digitizer, iphone screen true tone, cable gate, bend gate etc.
Moreover, you are contradicting you own point by defending Adobe's acquisition of Figma. If anything that should encourage innovation on Adobe's side instead just buying the competition!?!
eu is right
As usual you got a braindead take about apple, the rest was great though!
My God... the take about Apple and Masimo is just plainly wrong, please Theo, inform yourself better about these issues before issuing opinions. Also the take about the port... the rest of the market, including Macbooks moved on to USB-C like years ago... yes governments interfering in technology like this is bad, but Apple should be the one taking the flak here, many years refusing to adopt the port they themselves helped define the standard for(yes Apple was part of the standard), just because the want their walled garden intact.
second
I think your take on USB-C and regulation regarding such things is completely off. If it‘s about innovation, then what Apple did and still does is much worse than forcing the industry to agree on at keast a very basic common ground. Building monopolies and walled gardens is much worse
EU is the worst - we should ignore them and leave nato - they have bathed in our glory long enough and now need to make their own - EU tech sector is inconsequential and that's bad for mankind
Validation is helluva a drug.