Villain's preflop range is much wider. I don't think that he has a flush here: I think he bets all of his flush draws on the flop. But I can't come up with any bluffs that would check back the flop and almost minclick raise the turn. So I would fold. That turn raise screams value, I might even fold on the turn because I would expect the flush draws to bet the flop. I just don't see how you can call the turn unless you think he's just raising with AK to get a cheap showdown.
@gabrielrockman I pretty much agree with what you are saying. I just don't see this line ever being a bluff from a "normal" thinking person anyway. Villain would have to be really out there and getting creative... Only thing I think we beat as hero is exactly AK with the A of clubs... so there are 4 combos of that. Maybe he raised it on the turn, kind of just button clicking and evaluating river and maybe getting a free showdown. Then when the club comes and he is checked to he decides his hand is a good bluff candidate here? Its all I can come up with really. I am most definitely folding this as played... and like you said there is a good chance I just fold turn.
@@gabrielrockman Turn can scream value, yes, but value to the villain, on the turn, could be JJ who thinks you have AK/AQ. AcKc likely bets turn, and plans to bluff the river if he misses. You're ahead enough on the turn, along with 5% equity if you're not, to call the 5:1 bet. I think folding the turn loses money.
In a low stakes game, i would insta-muck the QQ when the 4-bet comes in because it is nearly 100% that the villain has AA/KK (and probably a lot more AA than KK), people at those stakes are just plain incapable of bluffing when someone else is already showing strength. But in a higher stakes game like this with deeper stacks there is enough of a chance the villain is making a move, its at least worth a preflop call. The check on the flop however really threw me off, to me after all that preflop action it says he either missed or he is slowplaying, its enough for me to stay in on the turn even when raised. But when the aggression continues on the river after a turn raise did not get me off the hand, I have to assume he has it. If its a bluff kudos, he deserves the pot.
Would he really bluff raise the turn with such a tiny bet with the plan to shove all rivers? Raising to 1200 over a 500 bet into an 1800 pot screams value.
@@Nikkithedog-t6byou seem to have commented that about 5 times. Why are you so certain the guy couldn’t have A5s? Loads of people use that hand as a 4-bet bluff.
I don't know what can be said here. The problem is that this spot is so player dependent. From a theory perspective; hero should probably 5 bet pre. As Bart points out, Villain is incentivized to 4 bet because of the 2 callers behind him. Add to that the current 3 bet or fold thinking from SB position. Now the villain should be much wider. As for villains strange check back on flop, one hand that sticks out is AcAx, could be KcKx too. Although one would think the latter would want some protection against an ace hitting the board. Anyways, I pretty much agree with Bart's analysis, except for the usual. In big action pots, he expects a lot more river checking than I do. Which is why I'd be making my decision on turn here. I'm not expecting this river to go check-check often enough to call & then fold. Seems like a waste of $700, but maybe hero is rich....
Lucky Chances has the longest continuously running NL game in the country by far In the 1990s it was the only NL game in a public venue The game was 10 20 40 Otherwise it was limit Hold’em, then spread limit LC was late in the area getting smaller NL games 2/5 and 5/10, behind the California Grand Garden City and Bay 101 LC is where NL comes from, Bobby Hoff played there before NL came to LA I think the big game moved to Bay 101 or Matrix but obv still runs at LC sometimes?
Tough call, tough fold. AA, KK, AKclubs, A5 or a bluff. I can see JJ and 10s maybe once in a while. QQ might play it this way too. Nicely played by the villain. I'm almost tempted to call here, just for the info. Expensive lesson though if it was a value bet.
Bart - you frequently talk about how we need to look at the size of the bet relative to the stacks, and not just relative to the pot. Why didn't this come up when talking about the turn bet here? 500 is small relative to the pot, but it's still a 25 third blinds bet. It's still a big bet relative to stack sizes.
@@nuklearwinter2892but villian isn't raising $500 to $1200 here leaving $3600 behind with 99 here. Ah, maybe and hopes the club comes for the jam... Yeah I can see that... If I had 99 here, I'd likely just make the call and jam river... Hero has to bet/call most rivers
@@darylmixan8170 maybe, but what bluffs does he have after checking back the flop. It just doesn’t make sense except as a slow play on the flop to raise the turn. AA is more likely perhaps.
@nuklearwinter2892 yeah I don't think Villian is bluffing at all... He has to have AA 99, only bluff is Ac, but that still doesn't make sense. @@nuklearwinter2892
I don’t know, the other two players calling the original raise pre-flop probably is relevant in the 4-bet; maybe the villain thought hero was squeezing from the small blind (which is a common play). I would have liked if Bart asked the caller what he thought his own table image was that night or any other recent history with the villain. Yes, this looks like the villain has a strong hand the vast majority of the time but the hero bet of $500 on the turn is so weak, I can see someone with 1010 or JJ raise in that spot and then go for it on a checked river.
Could he have pocket 9’s here? Would A5 suited jam the river when the flush draw comes in after the hero bet/called the turn? Wouldn’t AxAc be more likely here?
A5 suited is nonsense, it wasn't worth the time to even speculate. Bart does the negreanu thing where he throws out a bunch of possible hands but unlike negreanu the tv package doesn't edit to only show the one thing he guessed correctly.
Opening small? What the hell? Its like pot or just over pot. 3x $60 + $120 = $300. That's a perfectly fine sizing in general. But I will note that personally OOP i like betting even higher like around 1.5x pot or so.
@@charlesnewborn3760 the "standard" when 3betting out of position is 4x + the limpers that would make it 360. You can adjust that then based on your opponents' tendencies if you have that information. So maybe the hero bet a bit small but not an awfully significant difference.
Calling turn raise is something I would not done. Either 3-bet or fold. If I am: a) behind - calling is a road to my stack suicide. b) ahead - calling is a road to my stack suicide. (I set myself for been a subject of bluff)
AK with Ac. Great bluff by a great player. He 4-bet pre because he was out of position and wanted to play a big pot with AK OOP. He wanted to go for the check-raise with this AcK, knowing that he would give additional fold equity if played that way rather than just leading out and getting a call. then, once the club came on the river, he grabbed his nuts and went all in.
He's got pocket 55. Thats was the check back when he hit his set. He had to 4 bet pre flop to get his pair heads up or else he folds there. Definitely 55.
@darylmixan8170 why can he not have a boat? 99 makes sense as played especially with the non all in size that is screaming for a call from us. I really think villain has 99 in this spot as played. Another likely hand is that he has AA as well with the A of clubs or even without... and goes for the rest of his max value on river since he should know he is probably ahead
Villain definitely limp trapping with AKc or AAs. I probably would've over folded pre flop even if my hand was best if he were bluffing, and dared his ass to do that again later
This will be unpopular, but i like a 3bet on the turn...A5 suited is definitely a 3bet/4 bet defend range - especially for a somewhat small 4bet...We should have as much A5 as the V IMO. But I tend towards unorthodox... And literally "be indifferent" as a merge + bluff, to being called... When in doubt, I like trending towards aggression... And I'm not buying the V's claim FWIW..
Way too nitty with a flush draw on board in a relatively high stakes game with limited knowledge of your opponent. You’re gonna get blown out of your shoes if that’s how you play QQ in that situation on that board. (Agree all day at low stakes)
The Q of clubs in hero's hand is so insignificant it's nonsense to mention it, let alone twice. The villians type is highly significant but not a word about that.
Bart rarely discusses villain personality types or table dynamics or live reads. I think it's because he's mathematically oriented, and those things are so subjective.
Probably one too many calls of people saying they had a read, and then the way the hand plays out totally flies against it. Just too much subjectivity Bart learned to just pay attention to the hard facts. And he can always say "if its this player type do X, else y"
@@Eastcoastwes92the other things is, if you’ve got a read then why even call in? Some of the most annoying calls on this channel are people who just keep calling down because “oh this guy’s a complete maniac, he could have any two cards!” Why waste time calling Bart then?
Are you folding QQ to this odd line from the villian here?
Villain's preflop range is much wider. I don't think that he has a flush here: I think he bets all of his flush draws on the flop.
But I can't come up with any bluffs that would check back the flop and almost minclick raise the turn. So I would fold.
That turn raise screams value, I might even fold on the turn because I would expect the flush draws to bet the flop. I just don't see how you can call the turn unless you think he's just raising with AK to get a cheap showdown.
Can you fold 88, out of position, to a 3 bet from Ronnie???
@gabrielrockman I pretty much agree with what you are saying. I just don't see this line ever being a bluff from a "normal" thinking person anyway. Villain would have to be really out there and getting creative...
Only thing I think we beat as hero is exactly AK with the A of clubs... so there are 4 combos of that.
Maybe he raised it on the turn, kind of just button clicking and evaluating river and maybe getting a free showdown. Then when the club comes and he is checked to he decides his hand is a good bluff candidate here?
Its all I can come up with really. I am most definitely folding this as played... and like you said there is a good chance I just fold turn.
@@gabrielrockman Turn can scream value, yes, but value to the villain, on the turn, could be JJ who thinks you have AK/AQ. AcKc likely bets turn, and plans to bluff the river if he misses. You're ahead enough on the turn, along with 5% equity if you're not, to call the 5:1 bet. I think folding the turn loses money.
I muck here all day long.
AA with the A of clubs all day long.
This line is so strong and underbluffed i wouldn't even call the turn raise.
In a low stakes game, i would insta-muck the QQ when the 4-bet comes in because it is nearly 100% that the villain has AA/KK (and probably a lot more AA than KK), people at those stakes are just plain incapable of bluffing when someone else is already showing strength. But in a higher stakes game like this with deeper stacks there is enough of a chance the villain is making a move, its at least worth a preflop call. The check on the flop however really threw me off, to me after all that preflop action it says he either missed or he is slowplaying, its enough for me to stay in on the turn even when raised. But when the aggression continues on the river after a turn raise did not get me off the hand, I have to assume he has it. If its a bluff kudos, he deserves the pot.
Would he really bluff raise the turn with such a tiny bet with the plan to shove all rivers? Raising to 1200 over a 500 bet into an 1800 pot screams value.
4 betting AK preflop isn't really a true bluff. Value bet / bluff. I don't think it's close to 100% AA/KK at any stakes.
Pocket 99's light 4-bet and floped his set. Then filled up on the turn.
@gregroland1519 this is a very likely hand
Seems like the turn raise was to set up a slightly less than pot river jam. I don't know what I would've done here. Probably call turn fold river.
It felt like aces. Checked the flop because it was highly unlikely hero hit that flop. Raised the turn hoping the hero had an overpair
Or kings either one, the A5 sited discussion is nonsense though.
@@Nikkithedog-t6byou seem to have commented that about 5 times. Why are you so certain the guy couldn’t have A5s? Loads of people use that hand as a 4-bet bluff.
I don't know what can be said here. The problem is that this spot is so player dependent. From a theory perspective; hero should probably 5 bet pre. As Bart points out, Villain is incentivized to 4 bet because of the 2 callers behind him. Add to that the current 3 bet or fold thinking from SB position. Now the villain should be much wider.
As for villains strange check back on flop, one hand that sticks out is AcAx, could be KcKx too. Although one would think the latter would want some protection against an ace hitting the board.
Anyways, I pretty much agree with Bart's analysis, except for the usual. In big action pots, he expects a lot more river checking than I do. Which is why I'd be making my decision on turn here. I'm not expecting this river to go check-check often enough to call & then fold. Seems like a waste of $700, but maybe hero is rich....
If the villain snap checked flop. It's a big sign he was strong
And a huge sign he doesn't have A5 suited which is just nonsense to mention.
Lucky Chances has the longest continuously running NL game in the country by far
In the 1990s it was the only NL game in a public venue
The game was 10 20 40
Otherwise it was limit Hold’em, then spread limit
LC was late in the area getting smaller NL games 2/5 and 5/10, behind the California Grand Garden City and Bay 101
LC is where NL comes from, Bobby Hoff played there before NL came to LA
I think the big game moved to Bay 101 or Matrix but obv still runs at LC sometimes?
Tough call, tough fold. AA, KK, AKclubs, A5 or a bluff. I can see JJ and 10s maybe once in a while. QQ might play it this way too.
Nicely played by the villain.
I'm almost tempted to call here, just for the info. Expensive lesson though if it was a value bet.
Bart - you frequently talk about how we need to look at the size of the bet relative to the stacks, and not just relative to the pot. Why didn't this come up when talking about the turn bet here? 500 is small relative to the pot, but it's still a 25 third blinds bet. It's still a big bet relative to stack sizes.
This is the most underbluffed line possible.
Absolutely but we got no info on who the other player was, which is hugely significant.
Yeah feels like 99 or AA. The TINY turn raise is just never a bluff
@@nuklearwinter2892but villian isn't raising $500 to $1200 here leaving $3600 behind with 99 here. Ah, maybe and hopes the club comes for the jam... Yeah I can see that... If I had 99 here, I'd likely just make the call and jam river... Hero has to bet/call most rivers
@@darylmixan8170 maybe, but what bluffs does he have after checking back the flop. It just doesn’t make sense except as a slow play on the flop to raise the turn. AA is more likely perhaps.
@nuklearwinter2892 yeah I don't think Villian is bluffing at all... He has to have AA 99, only bluff is Ac, but that still doesn't make sense. @@nuklearwinter2892
I don’t know, the other two players calling the original raise pre-flop probably is relevant in the 4-bet; maybe the villain thought hero was squeezing from the small blind (which is a common play). I would have liked if Bart asked the caller what he thought his own table image was that night or any other recent history with the villain. Yes, this looks like the villain has a strong hand the vast majority of the time but the hero bet of $500 on the turn is so weak, I can see someone with 1010 or JJ raise in that spot and then go for it on a checked river.
Are they included in Wonka bars?
I hate calling 4 bets with QQ
Could he have pocket 9’s here?
Would A5 suited jam the river when the flush draw comes in after the hero bet/called the turn? Wouldn’t AxAc be more likely here?
A5 suited is nonsense, it wasn't worth the time to even speculate. Bart does the negreanu thing where he throws out a bunch of possible hands but unlike negreanu the tv package doesn't edit to only show the one thing he guessed correctly.
I thought 9s as well and he was slow playing the flop
I think i would 3bet to more like 420 pre.. oop and 3 players....what is the advantage to opening so small?
Opening small? What the hell? Its like pot or just over pot. 3x $60 + $120 = $300. That's a perfectly fine sizing in general. But I will note that personally OOP i like betting even higher like around 1.5x pot or so.
@@charlesnewborn3760 the "standard" when 3betting out of position is 4x + the limpers that would make it 360. You can adjust that then based on your opponents' tendencies if you have that information. So maybe the hero bet a bit small but not an awfully significant difference.
Calling turn raise is something I would not done. Either 3-bet or fold. If I am:
a) behind - calling is a road to my stack suicide.
b) ahead - calling is a road to my stack suicide. (I set myself for been a subject of bluff)
I agree that turn is fold or jam, & I think fold is the correct choice. Hero would likely only get called by better if he jams.
What would squishy do?
Im definitely leaning towards QQ, KK or AA that villan had i think he probably had a better pair then qq though
Villian has to have Ac at least right?
A5s makes sense
So does AA, 99, KK, particularly with a club.
AK with Ac. Great bluff by a great player. He 4-bet pre because he was out of position and wanted to play a big pot with AK OOP. He wanted to go for the check-raise with this AcK, knowing that he would give additional fold equity if played that way rather than just leading out and getting a call. then, once the club came on the river, he grabbed his nuts and went all in.
wdym hero was sb villain was ip
The only bluff is A9 or 9T suited. Turning top pair into a bluff.
He's got pocket 55. Thats was the check back when he hit his set. He had to 4 bet pre flop to get his pair heads up or else he folds there.
Definitely 55.
55 that 4 bet pre??
Is this JD?? Or DJ?? Hey from the Bay dude haha
Damn that check raise on turn means villian doesnt have a boat... Hero can very easily could have clubs here... I'd have to put villian on AA Ac
@darylmixan8170 why can he not have a boat? 99 makes sense as played especially with the non all in size that is screaming for a call from us.
I really think villain has 99 in this spot as played. Another likely hand is that he has AA as well with the A of clubs or even without... and goes for the rest of his max value on river since he should know he is probably ahead
This is damm interesting
So he took the free equity on the FLOP but not the turn?
Fold the turn as played. I’d probably x or bet larger and fold to a shove
Villain definitely limp trapping with AKc or AAs. I probably would've over folded pre flop even if my hand was best if he were bluffing, and dared his ass to do that again later
wdym villain opened 3x
This will be unpopular, but i like a 3bet on the turn...A5 suited is definitely a 3bet/4 bet defend range - especially for a somewhat small 4bet...We should have as much A5 as the V IMO. But I tend towards unorthodox... And literally "be indifferent" as a merge + bluff, to being called... When in doubt, I like trending towards aggression...
And I'm not buying the V's claim FWIW..
This is insane
Shove the turn after getting 3 bet.
Haven't watcged the rest yet.
Just shove turn. Guy's doing it as a mo.
fold turn and move on
Way too nitty with a flush draw on board in a relatively high stakes game with limited knowledge of your opponent. You’re gonna get blown out of your shoes if that’s how you play QQ in that situation on that board.
(Agree all day at low stakes)
Pocket 9s???
He has AA. I’m folding the turn
99
I would have folded this for sure
now I am relieved. Thanks for let me know.
Dwan called with qq for 2 million
The Q of clubs in hero's hand is so insignificant it's nonsense to mention it, let alone twice. The villians type is highly significant but not a word about that.
Bart rarely discusses villain personality types or table dynamics or live reads. I think it's because he's mathematically oriented, and those things are so subjective.
Probably one too many calls of people saying they had a read, and then the way the hand plays out totally flies against it. Just too much subjectivity Bart learned to just pay attention to the hard facts. And he can always say "if its this player type do X, else y"
@@Eastcoastwes92the other things is, if you’ve got a read then why even call in?
Some of the most annoying calls on this channel are people who just keep calling down because “oh this guy’s a complete maniac, he could have any two cards!” Why waste time calling Bart then?
Wow no viewers yet. Crush Live really fell off…