49:00 Considering the impact of job loss based solely on automation is only a fraction of the picture. By the time it really kicks in we'll have very capable AI just about everywhere, running machines that don't need to socialise, eat, drink, worry about the weather etc... Looking to the past and saying that everything will be fine 'this time' because everything worked out eventually for later generations is just absurd. "Last time" was a purely mechanical automation, an evolution of tools and manufacturing. "This time" we have many billions of people around the world and drastic wealth disparity across all nations that only grows year on year, we're on the cusp of a number of disruptive technological advances that will affect entire industries, the likes of which the world has never seen and on top of all of that we're driving the planet both through a major mass extinction and also global climate change. We could, if we wanted build a 'race' of hyper-intelligent, networked, relatively indestructible machines that would vastly outmatch us in every conceivable way; The worlds militaries are already salivating at the prospects and racing to create combat capable AI & matching machines. It won't be even vaguely comparable to "last time".... we have rotting nukes, they'll be computer controlled; National utilities will be computer controlled, communications will be (more thoroughly) computer controlled - humans will be taken out of most decision-making roles because machines are just better at analysis and vastly so. With respect to the professor and his associates, they _drastically_ underestimate the future that we're all calmly heading toward, as though it'll all just be like 'last time'.
So I'm just wondering is there going to be any value in learning things in the future besides artificial intelligence and computer science? I also don't see too much demand of AI experts in companies maybe 10 for a 10 k organisation. Because we have to face the enormous cost of education and it's hyperinflation caused by technology.
A very dark thought just surfaced in my head: *Won't the oldest 'job' in human history (prostitution) also most likely be the last occupation to get automated* ?!
@Jared Henning: So, if you're right, then starting a career in prostitution is also no longer a safe haven for the unemployed... Sometimes it's hard not to get a little bit depressed from these gloomy predictions.
There will be more wealth created in the next 30 years then in the last 3000. Most of it going to the wealthy, but we could all live well with abundance if we plan correctly.
I also guess that with increasing AI capabilties it will be very difficult for humans to prove "Alive I'm more valuable to you than dead"
49:00 Considering the impact of job loss based solely on automation is only a fraction of the picture. By the time it really kicks in we'll have very capable AI just about everywhere, running machines that don't need to socialise, eat, drink, worry about the weather etc... Looking to the past and saying that everything will be fine 'this time' because everything worked out eventually for later generations is just absurd.
"Last time" was a purely mechanical automation, an evolution of tools and manufacturing.
"This time" we have many billions of people around the world and drastic wealth disparity across all nations that only grows year on year, we're on the cusp of a number of disruptive technological advances that will affect entire industries, the likes of which the world has never seen and on top of all of that we're driving the planet both through a major mass extinction and also global climate change.
We could, if we wanted build a 'race' of hyper-intelligent, networked, relatively indestructible machines that would vastly outmatch us in every conceivable way; The worlds militaries are already salivating at the prospects and racing to create combat capable AI & matching machines.
It won't be even vaguely comparable to "last time".... we have rotting nukes, they'll be computer controlled; National utilities will be computer controlled, communications will be (more thoroughly) computer controlled - humans will be taken out of most decision-making roles because machines are just better at analysis and vastly so.
With respect to the professor and his associates, they _drastically_ underestimate the future that we're all calmly heading toward, as though it'll all just be like 'last time'.
I genuinely assumed that this talk was from 2013. I think the current state is rather further forward.
Example of Ethiopia is misplaced and is basically due to the failure to distinguish between mechanization and automation.
So I'm just wondering is there going to be any value in learning things in the future besides artificial intelligence and computer science? I also don't see too much demand of AI experts in companies maybe 10 for a 10 k organisation.
Because we have to face the enormous cost of education and it's hyperinflation caused by technology.
Eventually there won't be any jobs for human computer scientists either.
Does anyone know the website for own -it?
A very dark thought just surfaced in my head:
*Won't the oldest 'job' in human history (prostitution) also most likely be the last occupation to get automated* ?!
It was one of the first but it will never be completely automated.
@Calorus: So we agree on this right?
Unless your point is that it cannot be *last* when it *never* happens?
Prostitution will be automated, but it will be in VR and people will never take another chance on a human prostitute.
@Jared Henning:
So, if you're right, then starting a career in prostitution is also no longer a safe haven for the unemployed...
Sometimes it's hard not to get a little bit depressed from these gloomy predictions.
There will be more wealth created in the next 30 years then in the last 3000. Most of it going to the wealthy, but we could all live well with abundance if we plan correctly.
Thanks