Powell’s Inflation Nightmare
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- Опубліковано 18 січ 2024
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The runaway inflation of the 1970s was whipped only after Paul Volcker took over as Fed chief, doing the deed but not without precipitating a recession. Powell’s efforts to engineer “immaculate disinflation,” lowering inflation without a recession, have gone well so far, as we’ve been expecting. But the specter of 1970s inflation’s twin peaks must keep him up at nights now that Middle East hostilities raise the risk of resurgent energy inflation. … Globally, inflation has been dropping, with China’s economic woes effectively working to export deflation to the rest of the world. But war in the Middle East could jeopardize that scenario if it disrupts oil supplies.
*Ed Yardeni* : _The Sultan of Serene Sanity_
So glad I came across this channel! In the old days I remember going into the conference room to listen to Ed’s market updates on the speakerphone.
Nothing like potentially keeping interest rates high to control the price of oil.
Makes absolutely no sense.
I buy stripping out shelter when forecasting inflation because it's by far the most lagging component of inflation. The dashboard at Truflation is at 2.2% right now, down a solid 100 bps since October 2023. Most likely outcome is inflation continues to decline, at least down to 3%
Thank You
why would the Fed lower interest rates while inflation remains above its target or the economy slips into a recession? Recessions, in my opinion, are a necessary part of the economic cycle. We shouldn't delay them. To do so just makes them deeper or longer in the future.
As always, thank you for giving us your much insightful commentary on a regular basis.
I am aware of the effort and time producing the content takes, but I would still like to point out perhaps it is a bit too much of a delay to upload on Friday when the recording was done on Tuesday. The markets and world events at large can be extremely volatile at times, and a 3-day delay may make your commentary partially obsolete.
Read the opening slide.
Your dog is too cute. King Charles are the best!
IWM to $700 by 2028. Roaring twenties
Delusional
thank goodness for shale oil production in the US.
Ed, I always appreciate your generous shares. Thank you. However, as a first year college level student of economics, I have to admit I can clearly see thru the horse manure. Strip out what you like but if inflation is "basically at 2.5%" how is it possible my bank is offering 5% for money market?? Huh? You admitted yourself wars are inflationary (LBJ era pop) Now we have two wars, graft and corruption and that's not inflationary? What happens with the money "happy Janet" is pouring in the financial system? What happens with the free money to the migrants? Student loan forgiveness? It goes on and on. It's as clear as the nose on your face, Stagflation is coming soon to a theater near you!
Where do you see LT Treasury rates going in 2033?
Sorry 2023...
2024!
Ridiculous about inflation if something goes up 50 percent and than stops going up for a few months they claim inflation is no more. My wages didn't go up 50 percent. Do we include taxes and insurance in inflation rates ,answer no . Keep blabbing away . Truly comical.
Other peoples wages did go up and are still going up, poor people dont matter in this economy and the goal is to keep low income americans wages as low as possible because everyone else benefits from that. Low income americans meaning under 40k a year earners.
real wages are outpacing inflation.. you must be a bad worker
@@Henry-oo8op he doesnt need to be a bad worker. Wages for people who didnt change jobs arent that juicy. Also places like NYC are only raising their minimums wage a little bit, so plenty of low end workers who work very hard are not getting much. From $15 in 2019 to $16 in 2024, doesnt even keep pace with inflation.
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4:15 Oil fell because Biden drained the reserve