"Large banks looking a lot healthier" - If so why are BOFA, JPM, and WFC still paying 0% for Checking and Savings interest rates? As that's the only way they can simply earn several tens of billions in interest. It's a real pity that US Consumers are foolishly keeping money in those checking accounts.
corporate america has been able to maintain the margins not because they are smart or have become magically more productive rather American consumer has been taking the increases of their product prices.
@@BathshebaE1 The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized. *Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour* *US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00 *UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00 My only disagreement with Savita is: *no* rate cut-s for 2023. Regards -
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different"* Thesis Jerome originally proposed this thesis. Savita is simply on board with Jerome's earlier position. This simply implies this *is not* going to be your *ordinary* garden variety recession with regards to portfolio allocation-s. Energy has already been priced in @ recessionary levels-s by the 2022 lows. PE''s for energy equities are or near *single* digit-s. Utilities on the other hand are rather *richly* priced. Healthcare is overly leveraged.
The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized. *Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour* *US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00 *UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00 My only disagreement with Savita is: *no* rate cut-s for 2023. Regards -
The question is whether active sector rotation strategies are worth it in a taxable account. It’s one thing to outperform indexes in tax defered accounts, to do so on an aftertax basis in regular accounts is hard.
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different" Thesis* The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized. *Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour* *US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00 *UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00 My only disagreement with Savita is: There will be *no* rate cut-s for 2023. Regards -
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different" Thesis* Jerome originally proposed this thesis. Savita is simply on board with Jerome's earlier position. This simply implies this *is not* going to be your *ordinary* garden variety recession with regards to portfolio allocation-s. Energy has already been priced in @ recessionary levels-s by the 2022 lows. PE''s for energy equities are or near *single* digit-s. Utilities on the other hand are rather *richly* priced. Healthcare balance sheets are overleveraged. Regards-
"The consumer actually looks healthier" BS. Credit Card debt is at a level similar to the federal debt: all time highs. This is a Jim Cramer, but much prettier and doesn't yell. "90% of homeowners have fixed rate (lower) mortgages"... that is the death blow for REDFIN, Century 21, etc. And commercial real estate.. in a coma.
@@HermannTheGreat Yea buying 10 year treasuries at .5% would be a great move. Of course these people are selling when they say buy and buying when they say sell. That is called fraud.
Imo as long as US energy policy is fighting traditional energy, while the rest of the world continues to grow with incredible energy demand, I think for the next 5 years at least energy is still a good investment.
@@HermannTheGreat The data that shows how the energy sector has not only underperformed the growth in M2 money supply and personal consumer expenditure over the past 20 years, but has underperformed most other sectors overall. Consumers don't want to pay much for energy, that's a fact. I don't see the incredible growth or demand you assert, especially as the 'agenda' is specifically geared up against it.
Thanks CM. Savita's information is helpful. Thank you
"Large banks looking a lot healthier" - If so why are BOFA, JPM, and WFC still paying 0% for Checking and Savings interest rates? As that's the only way they can simply earn several tens of billions in interest. It's a real pity that US Consumers are foolishly keeping money in those checking accounts.
Thank you for sharing
Great interview thanks!!
What a FANTASTIC guest-- thank you !!
The Financial Industrial Complex will always tell you what they want you to hear, which is often not what you need to hear.
Always great guests and great information. A life raft in a financially stormy world. Thanks Consuelo
Outstanding. And I can't wait for David next week.
corporate america has been able to maintain the margins not because they are smart or have become magically more productive rather American consumer has been taking the increases of their product prices.
Monetary inflation floats all boats....
Savita is very good! I follow her closely.
“I think this all bullish and bearish”.
Haha. Thanks for going out on that limb for us.
@17:56… straight from the VP school of public speaking!
Thanks for this, but when someone says “this time it’s different”, I recommend you run away.
Exactly. She's in retail and has to say it.
@@BathshebaE1
The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized.
*Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour*
*US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00
*UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00
My only disagreement with Savita is: *no* rate cut-s for 2023.
Regards -
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different"* Thesis
Jerome originally proposed this thesis. Savita is simply on board with Jerome's earlier position.
This simply implies this *is not* going to be your *ordinary* garden variety recession with regards to portfolio allocation-s. Energy has already been priced in @ recessionary levels-s by the 2022 lows. PE''s for energy equities are or near *single* digit-s. Utilities on the other hand are rather *richly* priced. Healthcare is overly leveraged.
The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized.
*Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour*
*US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00
*UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00
My only disagreement with Savita is: *no* rate cut-s for 2023.
Regards -
Yes
If stocks are so unloved, why are CAPE ratios so historically high? High CAPE ratios tells me that stocks are loved beyond their earnings merit.
Agree on 90% of this
Care to elaborate?
Rethinking sounds a lot like active management.
The question is whether active sector rotation strategies are worth it in a taxable account. It’s one thing to outperform indexes in tax defered accounts, to do so on an aftertax basis in regular accounts is hard.
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different" Thesis*
The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized.
*Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour*
*US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00
*UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00
My only disagreement with Savita is: There will be *no* rate cut-s for 2023.
Regards -
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different" Thesis*
Jerome originally proposed this thesis. Savita is simply on board with Jerome's earlier position. This simply implies this *is not* going to be your *ordinary* garden variety recession with regards to portfolio allocation-s. Energy has already been priced in @ recessionary levels-s by the 2022 lows. PE''s for energy equities are or near *single* digit-s. Utilities on the other hand are rather *richly* priced. Healthcare balance sheets are overleveraged.
Regards-
Her macro analysis is more of a “hope.”
"The consumer actually looks healthier" BS. Credit Card debt is at a level similar to the federal debt: all time highs. This is a Jim Cramer, but much prettier and doesn't yell. "90% of homeowners have fixed rate (lower) mortgages"... that is the death blow for REDFIN, Century 21, etc. And commercial real estate.. in a coma.
CapEx could be inflationary and Fed tried to hike against it. Corporate only took the medicine Feb prescribed so the inflation slowed down.
Has anyone ever made a cent listening to these yappers?
No. Most of the interviews of the last year or two have been worthless or sales pitches. I remember when the one guy was pitching long bonds.. wow
@@HermannTheGreat Yea buying 10 year treasuries at .5% would be a great move. Of course these people are selling when they say buy and buying when they say sell. That is called fraud.
She's a contrarian. At the beginning of the year she was pitching Energy and now is the opposite
.................... *Incorrect* . Watch the video in it's entirety.
Regards-
Imo as long as US energy policy is fighting traditional energy, while the rest of the world continues to grow with incredible energy demand, I think for the next 5 years at least energy is still a good investment.
@@HermannTheGreat The data tells you otherwise.
@@tastypymp1287 Which data
@@HermannTheGreat The data that shows how the energy sector has not only underperformed the growth in M2 money supply and personal consumer expenditure over the past 20 years, but has underperformed most other sectors overall.
Consumers don't want to pay much for energy, that's a fact.
I don't see the incredible growth or demand you assert, especially as the 'agenda' is specifically geared up against it.
Rates should be 15%
Fed rate-cuts for the remainder of this year? NO WAY. Powell does not want to be remembered as the Arthur Burns, of the 21st century.