Accident Review TBM 700DT Airplanes typically don't fall out of the sky!
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- Опубліковано 14 жов 2024
- Accident Review TBM 700DT Loss of Control Inflight. Airplanes typically don't fall out of the sky!
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FlyWire is about exploring flight and the freedom this incredible experience brings us on a personal level. Flying has always captured the imagination and excitement of living life to its fullest. Hi, I'm Scott Perdue. In a former life I flew the F-4 and F-15E, more recently I retired from a major airline. I've written for several aviation magazines over the years, was a consultant for RAND, the USAF, Navy, NASA as well as few others, wrote a military thriller- 'Pale Moon Rising' (still on Kindle). But mostly I like flying, or teaching flying. Some of the most fun I had was with Tom Gresham on a TV show called 'Wings to Adventure". We flew lots of different airplanes all over the country. Now with FlyWire I want to showcase the fun in flying, share the joy and freedom of flight and explore the world with you. Make sure you subscribe if you want to go along for the ride!
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Earlier this month I asked for a quote to get insurance on a TBM700. Was told by underwriter that they are not writing any policies for TBM's unless the pilot has over 1000 hours in them already. Said they were having too many accidents and need to figure out why. Guess I can thank this guy.
What are the accidents?
Loss of control?
@@kevinmoore4887 these high performance planes can "get away" from the pilot and the margins of safe operation are tight, compared to the pilots usual experience in other planes.
@@Dwightstjohn-fo8ki Kathryn's report states there was a TBM runaway Rudder Trim incident on another plane. How many trim accidents have there been lately? Too many.. Either the trim motor or autopilot making a hard Rudder movement seems possible. Comments include the pilot was 40 years IFR and 1000 hours in a PA46. Doing a roll on purpose seems less likely.
Was that the TBM 700, or every TBM ?
This is a one-year-old comment but right now the requirement is 25 hours in 2023, You have to have 25 of type training and I believe a full sim counts. Also, the TBM 700-940 has a very low accident rate, very low. So there is no reason for the Ins company to think this way. The TBM is not a jet, it is just a high-performance single-engine prop Plane. Most people can handle this plane with 25-30 hours of on-type training, The flight is nothing, takeoff easy, Landing is where the training comes in, getting the speeds down and on track for a fast plane it lands pretty slow for its cruise speeds. Landing the plane is also easy the hard part is speeds knowing when to start to slow down, and energy control is what the training is all about.
Scott, I took an emergency maneuver training course almost right after I earned my private certificate. Worth every penny. I wish more pilots would do this.
where'd you do this course?
@@johngilbert1325 roger that
Good advice, sounds like extra training beyond basic flight maneuvers. Especially if it’s a new type. I’m not much of a pilot, I’ve only flown Cessna 150, 152 and 172, and I found the 172 a vastly inferior aircraft and not nearly as easy to fly, somewhat under powered, and it took me a little bit to get used to that. I don’t care to ever fly a Cessna 172 ever again. As for the 152, I actually fly it in my dreams besides the reality.
@@steveperreira5850 You Are Right,,,, " I don’t care to ever fly a Cessna 172 ever again. "The Only Part You Got Right",,, "You Are Not Much of a Pilot",,,,,
I consider myself a non experienced pilot (roughly 2000 hours on C206-XP) , therefore any insight into safe flying is much appreciated, kudos to you captain and love your posts.
that is THE right attitude and more people should think your way.
Scott from your analysis he needed upset training but he had so little experience with this aircraft that it was more than he could handle. It is a powerful airplane.
Reminds me of the TBM crash near Buffalo earlier in the year. Strait down and no reply to ATC
Good recap of what “most likely” happened, learned a few things as well, I always say it’s a good day when you learn something new!
What a great video. No screaming, no berating, no judgment, and no speculation-stated-as-fact. Just a mild-mannered review of what's known and what's not -- and then an explanation, stated as opinion only, of what he thought probably happened. Very nice.
Awesome case study by Flywire! Thanks Scott! I am not a pilot and don't pretend to be however I am intrigued by anything aviation.Thank you for allowing a nobody to understand!! Prayers to all pilots ! Education and practice (muscle memory) can save lives and that is what matters!
'...I am not a pilot and don't pretend to be however I am intrigued by anything aviation...' Me too.
One of the best analysis video channels out there!
Scott, love your channel. I learn a lot even though I don't fly anymore.
Thank you for this report, Scott!
Thank you for the content. This channel would be better if there were subtitles for the radio transmissions. They are often hard to make out what’s being said.
Good presentation. My dad Received flight training on the GI bill right after the end of WW II. He only had vision in half his visual field from his left eye. The lady who trained him had been under Army Air Corp contract during WW II. She wrung him out then allowed his solo flights then the CAA stepped in and did the same. He got his airmans certificate the first one eyed pilot in the US to do so he set the standard. In the 1980's on a flight west with 3 other hunters the pilot in command lost Situational awareness in lowering weather conditions near Minot ND. My dad had a limited amount of control time on the Cessna 187 took control and recovered the spin at 500 Feet. TOO Damn close. The Pilot went to IFR and Recovery courses as soon as the trip was over. Until this time frame my dad had not flown solo since his flight training with a small number of flights in the Cessna in preparation for this trip. Key was he had been trained believe your instruments not your ears. Your ears will get you killed in an upset of any kind.
Love the pix on the wall. Just tilt your head to view. Lol. Good video Scott. Thanks.
It’s always a great day when Flywire does an mishap review. My wife loves when I watch these on the flight back from vacation 😂
"It’s always a great day when Flywire does an mishap review. "
Not for some
@@benghazi4216 😂 very true that was a good one
Just look at her during climb out and say "What could possibly go wrong?". That'll settle her nerves.
5:24 "...most folks have a tendency to keep the top of the plane oriented up." pure gold
Thanks for that Scott, I really appreciate your analysis and your calm demeanor. I also appreciate that you don't .... jump to conclusions (I'm not thinking of anyone in particular or naming any names).
I’ll bet you thinking of somebody.
@@jimarcher5255 It’s possible 😉
Scott, thank you for reviewing this accident on your channel for us. I just want to enjoy flying GA for as long as I can by learning as much as I can and staying safe.
Marty was a friend for over 30 years and I flew with him during that period of time. He obtained his license in 1979 and then pursued his IFR ticket.
We flew internationally to the Caribbean several times and extensively nationally. He flew a 201 Mooney then upgraded to a Malibu Mirage. He had 1,000 hours in the Mirage. He was a meticulous in and current in his training.
I'd like to believe there was a catastrophic medical event that caused the crash. The flaps and gear were up and there was no Mayday call or change in squawk code. We will never know if there was a medical event due the the disintegration of evidence.
Marty was a.kind and generous man. He was also an excellent doctor and loved his family. This was a tragic loss to the medical community where he lived and an unimaginable loss for those who loved him.
As one gentleman noted, I appreciate the tone of the video and the analysis. There was no blame and no judgement about his ability or knowledge of flying. I've many who like to pontificate about what happened and they can be very hurtful to those who cared about him.
Thank you for this video.
Thanks Susan, I'm sorry for your loss and for his family. This kind of problem can confront any pilot. Through this video I hope that it can save others lives.
The Socata TBM roll control system consists of very small span ailerons, augmented with spoilers just inboard.
In slow flight both are needed to prevent a rolling departure at the stalling AOA.
The small ailerons cannot maintain level flight when a significant asymmetric load is created by difference in fuel quantity at low speed.
True. But he was doing 300 knots.
Scary
The TBM 700 has a very busy cockpit for a single pilot. You must stay ahead of the aircraft. If you're not up to it, fly something else and stay safe.
It's basically a massive engine with a cockpit attached.
I just noticed...over 35000 subscribers. Way to go, Scott. Congrats.
Excellent skill is always thrumped by excellent decision.
The only Aviation Lecture more VALUABLE than an Aviation Lecture from Scott Purdue is...hmmm...right, there is no such thing.
Laughed, cried, towled off the cat who seemed a bit concerned.
Thank you, Scott.
Wow.
Thank you.
2 disorientation's I've had were lighting involved. A 172 I couldn't tell the difference temporarily between the light brown and blue for orienting the aircraft IFR. Then VFR I learned don't wear a white shirt because most of the gauges in the Baron 55D were all a white glare reflecting my shirt. Neither of the two were a good feeling popping up.
After I obtained my private, then instrument. I then took a basic aerobatic training, that was the best trading one can get for unusual upsets. I refreshed that training yearly. I strongly suggest everyone get some upset trying, like saving your life push the nose down.
Straighten your pictures before the War Dept. shows up and straightens your frame. You are only Gunny , she is the Supreme Commander!
Good job .
The Germans used same technique in french villas when they were retreating… booby tap..
Now I can’t stop looking at them and I’m about ready to gouge my eyes out.
Good information and great advise. thanks again.
Excellent analogy
Very informative.
You don't hear this stuff in flight school.
PS
If you're comfortable with the unusual attitudes of the pictures on the wall, you must be an aerobatic pilot.
Big time 🙃
Ahh! Another OCD pilot. Like nails on a chalkboard.
I can't see anything else 😔
@@dvpro1 intentionally set that way, has to be!
Ah, that explains it. I shall be distracted no more.
Nice job finding the additional data sources and the data that didn't make it into the gold plated FAA database. Good work
An excellent review of a terrible accident. I agree with your ‘probable cause’. Apart from lots of time twin GA jets I have time in both Piper Meridians and TBM 800. Single engine turboprops although they look like their piston counterparts as you said are very different. I found the TBM especially so!
Hi Scott, glad you explained that one. I live near the crash location and was wondering what possibly went wrong during that flight. Your expert review and ability to see the maneuvers from the data explains much. I never considered a doctor performing maneuvers like that in a plane he recently purchased and had little time in.
They used to call the V tail Bonanza Dr killers. Is the TBM usurping the title?
Having known the pilot, he never did those kind maneuvers when flying. Safety was at the top of his list when flying..
Excellent video. Thanks for thought.
Horrible way to end your TBM 700 initial solo! Looking forward to the Final. Thanks for reminding me why I only teased full aileron deflection rolls in the Talon once...man does it wrap up like a (uncoordinated) top!
You and Juan do a great job looking for Probable Causes. Recent crashes, ie TBM in the NE, could this have to do with "forced or uneducated substances" being put into a person's system?
According to acquaintances of the pilot, the pilot purchased the airplane about 9 days before the accident. Following the purchase, the pilot and a flight instructor completed several hours of ground school and 15.5 hours of dual instruction in the airplane.
how much previous experience, in what?
Scott said as much in the video, didn't he?
RAF Lakenheath?! I was stationed at RAF Mildenhall but lived in base housing in Lakenheath Village. I was a Comm Systems Specialist on the EC-135 Airborne Command & Control aircraft. And, yes, the English are extreme aviation enthusiasts. They would be lined up on the road watching aircraft come and go. But I must admit, when the SR-71 would take off, EVERYBODY stopped to watch it go.
Kenneth, yep the Heath! Great place.
As a fellow 'heath alum, may I enquire when you were there and job? Wife and I were there 83 to 86, both of us as air traffic controllers with the 1979th Comm SQ, both tower and radar. Loved UK, the TAC Evals, and all the folks. Got a ride in the F-111F as an NCO of the year but there's a whole other story about that.....
I was one of the green early guys standing up the F15E in 1992
Interesting....worked the first ever F15s sent to 1st TFW at Langley in 76. Best story out of that was the Shah of Iran flew in (his 707 pilots made the mistake of landing at Patrick Henry airport NE of Langley thinking it was Langley 🤔) to check out the 15 for purchase for Iran. The next day they put him in the back seat of a two holer, departed, sucked up the gear and went vertical a mid-field, disappearing into the ether with nothing left but the sound. An hour later they came back and pulled the now-wobbly legged Shah out and put him in his car. Two weeks later saw the news he'd ordered a few for his Air Force. But that was premature as the F14 was chosen over the F15 in the end......
Could it have been a rapid depressurization accident?
Great job on video 👍
Good point about the leverage produced by the very long nose. You will probably be the only accident analyst to postulate a theory about how this might accident may have happened. I have aerobatic experience in the Extra 300L, the North American TF-51D Mustang Cavalier conversion and SNJ Harvard (naval T6 Texan). Honestly, for every one of these airplanes you literally had to pick up the nose while doing a 360 by carefully feeding in lots of top rudder while passing through 90 and 270 degrees and lots of forward stick while inverted otherwise you will emerge from the roll in a dive. I have heard that some pilots new to the Mustang get nervous and try to pull through while inverted but to do this you need a mile of altitude and no fear of high terminal speeds. If its an eight point flick roll timing the rudder becomes tricky. Rolling a 300 knot private airplane with a heavy nose and not designed for aerobatics should be left for experts as you said and not ever attempted by someone with the means to buy an airplane way out of his skill level. Had he been flying a C182 he would probably still be alive. But this is pure speculation and may be unfair to the poor deceased pilot.
Interesting, I would have expected a reduction in power in this scenario, assuming the pilot remained healthy, all the more so given these aircraft are slippery. Thanks for your input.
Barry, you underestimate the effect that startle factor has on you if you are unprepared.
Great analysis, Gunny.
Great video. I've tried multiple rolls (more than 1 at a time ) and end up with the nose pointing way below the horizon in my RV, at the end of the 2nd role.
I think he was hand flying and got distracted setting his NAV for entry into the new airspace.
When he looked up from fiddling with the settings he realized he had drifted into nose low left turn. He over corrected and lost control.
Didn't respond to flight control after that because he was too busy trying to regain control.
Very sad he lost his life. Sounds like he had money and loved flying. We should all be so blessed.
Thanks
I love your "...My Nickle on the grass." I've never heard that phrase before. This pilot had 15 hours in the plane, his first solo trip, and my guess is he may have been overwhelmed by trying to use the complex systems - he was changing altitudes so he might have blown something easy like turning off his autopilot or made wrong inputs when asking the autopilot to descend. I've never flown anything more complicated than a Cherokee Arrow and have less than 400 hours, so I'm not the one to ask, that's for sure. I don't know if the pilot was stupid enough to try an aileron roll during an IRF flight, but I agree more with others that this very fast airplane got ahead of this low-time pilot - and gravity and airspeed quickly welcomed him back to mother earth and six feet under. Very sad, I feel for his family and hope they somehow find out what really happened.
I'm pretty sure the NTSB will look to see if there was any chance the guy might have had a medical issue, or drugs in his system that may have caused him to pass out or become momentarily unconscious. Would a medical review following an autopsy become news sooner than the final report? Thanks
Medical reviews rarely are released prior to the final report. It is indeed a fast airplane. My point was regardless of how the airplane ended nose low... it was an upset and beyond the pilots capabilities.
In Australia you have to do 120 hours supervised including 20 hours of night driving, just to get a car license, do you think that this horrible spate of crashes at take off and approach to landing happening in the US at the moment is because pilots are buying planes without the hours and training that they really should have. Everyday a new accident it seems like, such a loss.
My thought - he may have been using trim-down while AP was still active, then the AP dis-connected with excessive down trim. This happened to me, but not to this extent.
Trim should disconnect the AP
John Kennedy and friends died in a fast Piper Saratoga…he was only VFR rated and when lost sight of horizon suffered spatial disorientation and did not trust his instruments. As such he lost complete control of the airplane and also plummeted in all nose dive with no possibility of recovery.
What was the weather and horizon like that evening? Feels like this could have been a similar incident
Man I wish this guy lived close to me...I'd aggregate the hell out of him everyday!!! So much experience!!! Appreciate the review!!!
you do a great job
Thanks for sharing !!!
Great insight.
"A man's got to know his limitations".....Gunny Hiway (Heartbreak Ridge)
Excellent as always! Thank u.
I know nothing about aviation other than I have always been interested in it. My arm chair opinion was the poor guy had a medical issue. May he rest in peace.
One thing that kind of stuck out to me was he didn’t fly the flight path filed , wether this was related to climate conditions I don’t know but given the limited hours in the craft the fact that he didn’t follow ad set could indicate still unfamiliar with flight controls in the way that the plane handled proceeding to the accident. Further to this very limited interaction with atc could indicate he was overworked at that time or was suffering from decompression symptoms. The fact that air speed was high I also think the engine was running over torque again related unfamiliar handling of the aircraft. Testimony from his trainer to be tight qualified for the craft is key as to how in other sessions this pilots have it performed regarding setting controls and details of the craft history given that it was only nine days old and purchase what its maintenance were prior to the journey whether anything was outstanding or due for replacement could also have an affect on this journey. I will never know from the wreckage if a slow decompression played a part in the accent however I still feel it was a mixture of the pilots inability to control craft or a mixture of medical illness
Got into aerobatics recently and it's pretty shocking how fast you can be at vne with the nose pointed down. Definitely is valuable training.
That background screws with my OCD
Hahaha I kept thinking "it's a good thing I'm watching this and not my wife" for the same reason!
Hey, it’s HIS mancave!
It's quite a distraction isn't it 🤪
Comforting, it reminds me of home!
Single pilot in a high performance aircraft. Autopilots are wonderful. (then again -- the other causes listed shouldn't be tossed away)
Scott:
I'm looking for an aerobatic sign-off in my newly-acquired TBM 700.
...and can you PLEASE get rid of that rag on the chair behind you!?
:))
Great video and analysis -- thank you.
Haha, thanks! Rag is gone;)
Good review,, Scott. Sounds (again) like too much airplane, not enough pilot. Any idea of what he was flying prior to acquiring the TBM?
Seems when a TBM comes down it's always in a power dive and it's something the pilot did or didn't do.
It would be interesting to see what would happen in a TBM simulator such as they have at Simcom if a roll was attempted.
I'll be surprised if a TBM simulator is programed to perform aerobatic maneuvers.
@@petervana1 True, also, we don't know how he entered the roll. Did he do it from a level attitude, did he pitch up first, etc. If done properly, a roll can be completed without ever exceeding 1G.
@@petervana1 I went to Simcom for my TBM initial training. You can definitely roll the plane in the sim, however the Sim is non-motion and flies NOTHING like the actual plane.
@@scotttoedtmann5357 I instructed in Level A-D simulators for 10 years and was told that the simulator is designed to perform maneuvers the airplane is certificated to fly. So if a plane isn't approved to do rolls, the simulator may be programed to do a roll, to get through it, but it will not necessarily feel like the real airplane would.
Danke!
Nice review Scott. Now what about the rag, and those crooked photos? 😂 jk
All right, I got an on-time notification this is a good thing from screw tube.
You too? Should we maybe actually be worried? Something's up....
@@rickrickard2788 - No one has been able to decipher UA-cam's algorithm... NO ONE!
This is not upset or autopilot or elevator related IMO. I flew with this airplane across the Atlantic and almost 2000 hours in a similar s/n. Neither the Garmin or original King autopilot would be ON. The trim up would be working and no two pilots could overpower the TBM pitch trim if left running and at cruise speeds. There are 8 ways to stop the trim in that airplane plus a manual wheel. The elevator has dual control rods from each yoke and dual split elevators. Each split elevator has a separate trim actuator and each trim actuator has dual metal actuator rods to each trim tab. The TBM A has been tested to at least 300 KIAS. It has no Vne but the Vmo is 266 KIAS. You can easily reach this at 30 degrees nose down with idle power and we do this emergency descent training annually and it achieves about 10,000 fpm at 266KIAS clean. This airplane has heavy pitch forces and stability. No way you can push down at 2000-3000 fpm and hold that without trimming unless you have lots of force applied. 10,000 fpm would be extraordinary with power and no trimming. Like a slumped body which gets heavier as the nose points down. Or, a new pilot holding the pitch trim down switch in a panic. One of our pitch-hitter safety seminars for the TBM suggested spouses carry a purse with long handles so that if the pilot is incapacitated, the purse is hung over the back of the seat, handles over the pilot forehead, to hold the incapacitated pilot off the yoke. This A model originally was equipped with a lap and inertial reel shoulder belt, not the newer restraints unless it was upgraded. It would be easy to slump forward and not lock up the shoulder belt in the original belts. 24,000 fpm descent would be tough to do manually with power and not trim assisted somehow and everything else working. These are strong airplanes, built like a tank.
Interesting.... the speed was over 300 knots.... would it have begun a trim recovery... and at what point?
@@FlyWirescottperdue I don't think the autopilot was ON and therefore controlling pitch trim. There would be no automatic trim movement unless the autopilot was ON. The pilot wold either manually move the trim wheel wheel or activate the split switches (clutch and motor). The pilot might have activated nose down trim or possibly had a runaway or activated trim by accident. Those control systems in the tail are redundant and robust, I would hope to see witness marks showing where they were set. If the pilot was trimmed for descent and then slumped forward on the yoke then I could see some high descent rates. But, 24,000fpm descent--something might have come off near the end to get that rate.
Sounds similar to that Dr Consultant accident accident over a month ago. Possible medical emergency onboard, that incapacitated the pilot and sent the plane into an uncontrolled dive.
Excellent Analysis Scott. You are with your Probably cause with high probability right. Anyway this accident somehow evokes what happened at Reno 2011 (GallopingGhost Accident).
It did. That one was a trim tab broke due to flutter and the resulting G commanded by the elevator knocked the pilot unconscious.
G,day Scott from Sydney Australia.
Interesting review of the TBM. With the witness report of engine power, and no other abnormalities, the focus would be the pilot: until inspection of control surface function?
🌏🇦🇺
Unfortunately it is in lots of little bits. You can tell a lot YT fine detail is likely lost.
Yes, Scott, the English love our friends across the ponds. We don't always understand aspects of US life and politics but we're all a bit odd in our own ways.
Is it possible the pilot became incapacitated? ATC repeatedly tried to contact him. But I imagine if it was some sort of maneuver caused an upset he may be to busy to respond?
That’s what I think.
@@FlyWirescottperdue It's a very sad shame to have only just purchased a beautiful plane like that and take training to fly it and only 9 days later the poor guy lost his life in it.
We never know how much just 1 decision can make in our lives. I'm sure he was excited and very happy about his new investment and looking forward to years of enjoying it. Thank God he didn't have family and/or friends on board. My condolences go out to his family and friends.
@@FlyWirescottperdue hands full of OH..SIT..
Know dought.
Surely it not that hard to tell ATC you’ve got a problem….🤷♂️🤷♂️
@@bnetolldnataman Surely it could be, if he can't talk because he's incapacitated due to some medical issue ...incapacitated is the key word here, not unable because he's too busy.
I can't speak for all Englishmen, but I hope you enjoyed your time here.
And I'm glad we're on the same side, because you scare the hell out of me :-)
Thank you for protecting us against the enemy - the French.
Kidding aside - these analyses are great.
Thanks! I did enjoy the UK and want to come back when the C stuff blows over. Sorry I scare you.
It sounds like this Aircraft was for a more experienced pilot and less of a beginner's plane. My dad was stationed at Reese AFB and it was home of the T-38 trainers and i remember it well. I am interested in recreational flying. What beginer's plane should i be looking at? I'm thinking something in the Cesena flavor. It's a broad/question as I am a newbie.
Adam, no worries. I think you should fly. Look for a flight school operating Cessna 172s or DA-40s. Have fun!
It seems like he had the altitude to recover, so I initially thought maybe it was a medical condition. At those high vertical speeds, I'd think that the plane would want to start leveling off by itself, or could the plane have maintained a stall all the way down?
It wasn’t stalled. And I think it did start to pull out at the end. Maybe on its own.
I had the same notion about a medical condition causing the upset that resulted in the crash. Surely the speed after that nose-down descent would've been great enough to cause the wing to want to lift. In any case, very sad for the pilot and the family.
I was thinking stall too because of the attempt (?) to regain by putting the nose down and adding power. But Scott knew more. I love his videos.
I recently got to fly in a 850 that my friend ended up purchasing. One of the issues it had was the pressure valve for the cabin pressure(not sure of the proper name) was sticky and man it really screwed with my ears while it was hunting for the proper cabin pressure. I can't imagine how it would be with a total failure and how distracting it could be if you were a solo pilot.
@@dirtcurt1 I think there was a tbm crash awhile ago where they lost pressure at altitude. Sad atc calls…
This is a one-year-old comment but right now the requirement is 25 hours in 2023, You have to have 25 of type training and I believe a full sim counts. Also, the TBM 700-940 has a very low accident rate, very low. So there is no reason for the Ins company to think this way. The TBM is not a jet, it is just a high-performance single-engine prop Plane. Most people can handle this plane with 25-30 hours of on-type training, The flight is nothing, takeoff easy, Landing is where the training comes in, getting the speeds down and on track for a fast plane it lands pretty slow for its cruise speeds. Landing the plane is also easy the hard part is speeds knowing when to start to slow down, and energy control is what the training is all about.
I imagine the ntsb will take a hard look at the pilot’s flight experience.
This reminds me of a crash near Buffalo, NY of another high performance aircraft
That was the one involving a well known attorney. Wonder what this pilot's occupation was?
Scott,,,, You Are Doing a Great Job,,, Great Report... But,,, It's Still Hard To Believe,,, All The Way From Twenty Thousand Feet,,, and He Couldn't Get It Under-control,,, That's a Long Ride To The Ground... Most Guys Rolling An Airplane On Their Own,,, With No Instruction,,, Will Never Get The Nose High Enough,,,, Before Starting The Roll,,,
I was thinking the pilot suffered a sudden/incapacitating medical event.
Hey Scott… could you straighten out those pictures… I’m OCD and now I have a headache!
That is a really good video, excellent working theory. I have a question: That debris field was over 2000' long. I flew over it the following morning while taking a hotlap of the "neighborhood." Nowhere from impact, through break-up, to final scatter was there any sign of fire at all which typically means no fuel. What did you make of that?
With that kind of impact at those speeds... the airplane fragments... literally and JetA is not as volatile as Avgas. I'm not surprised.
There were bad guys in those groups. But you wouldn’t believe how many of the Plane Spotters would rat on someone out of place taking photos. Many times, they would share the photos they took of the person. And you’d think there’d be great photos of an EF-111s in a flat spin into a flea market parking lot.
Ahhhhrg! The crooked pictures!!!
Was it VFR? Depressurization on descent? Hypoxia? Maybe he passed out. Lots of possibilities.
Seems to be an autopilot malfunction, there was a previous error with it that should have/could have been fixed. Following the suit being filed.
I wonder if this was a case of lack of oxygen and blackout.
Scott, do you think the pilot could have passed out or had a health situation? The fact he just stopped responding to ATC, and by your account seemed to try and gain control at a lower altitude might suggest the pilot passed out and pushed forward on the yoke sending the plane into a steep dive. The pilot may have come to and tried to gain control but it was too late? Hypoxia? In an emergency situation I know the last part is communicate but I would think he may have communicated in the minute it took to hit the ground. And based on the eye witness account the plane wasn't spinning so I would think the pilot should have been able to regain control.
Possibly. I think it was more likely Hypoxia.
Ohh, so this is why you won that award. All makes sense now, lol. (jk- congratulations btw). Now a question: did you play in the band with Juan & Dan, & if you do play, were you able to keep up?
Unfortunately I cannot even play the kazoo.
@@FlyWirescottperdue lol, understood. That means we get to benefit from your having more time to break down more data, to keep us all informed. Awesome.
As a non pilot I am trying to understand your videos, most of them I've watched. I was most impressed with the female right seated pilot in the Bonanza during a spin. In this video, I could not tell if there was spatial disorientation or not. Couldn't the pilot neutralize the ailerons and rudder, (assuming there was no spin) and just use the elevators to restore control? Also, after seeing the tennis ball video, can't a simple instrument that points to the center of the earth be created electronically? Or is the spatially disoriented pilot so confused that he ignores time tested artificial horizon and WWII era instruments? My dad was a Navy PBY pilot and flew into his late 70's accident free. I spent long hours in a Baron's right seat. Kind Regards. Craig
LEFT SCRATCHING MY HEAD ! BUT I GUESS YOU TOO !
23100 fpm = 262.5 mph straight down
Thanks. I was just about to dig out a calculator.
With a 303 knot IAS, that indicates a 48.5 degree dive angle crossing through 9150 barometric altitude. The same trigonometry says he was going through 11,000 feet at a 28 degree dive.
@@Markle2k 11000 feet at a 28 degree dive and 300 indicated would allow ample time for the pilot to recover. Was that 11000feet agl or asl????
@@lessharratt8719 The angle increased between those last two ADS-B data points by 19.5 degrees. Over the course of 1900 feet his vertical speed went from 117 knots to 227 knots. That's from 197 to 383 feet per second. His recorded true airspeed went from 300 kts to 303 kts. That would be 9.6 second to 5 second to cover 1900 feet of altitude. Let's say 7 seconds to cover that 1900 feet. With just perhaps 8-9 thousand feet before hitting the ground, he didn't have much time left to recover from a 48 degree dive. 20-23 second if he did nothing and the dive angle stayed the same and didn't increase. You can go back and look at the video to see if the timestamp gives a better idea.
The altitude was recorded in "barometric altitude", so presuming he had the correct QNH set, it would be above MSL altitude.
@@Markle2k Thanks. You are obviously far more knowledgeable about this type of thing than I am. I appreciate the time and effort that you have put in to help me try to put a scenario in my head that can explain how this can happen. I got my PPL in 1978 and things where a lot different back then. It's hard to understand why so many aircraft accidents appear to be for no good reason.
I like how you talk
Is there a chance the TBM was designed by Boeing engineers or had an MCAS system or the like that rolled the trim to a “Lawn Dart” setting?
no. The TBM is a French airplane.
Initially, suicide struck me but after seeing the debris field I quickly dismissed it. Damn!
Didn’t know about the nose drop with aileron roll. Flight sim never shows that.
Great discussion Gunny 👍!
Very informing Scott!! Was he so disorientated, he couldn't pull the power and try to slowley raise the nose?
I'm wondering about that too ..... reducing the power would seem an obvious action to take 🤔
The sudden shock of that flight attitude often locks people up. Yes, he should he should have pulled the power.
Given his lack of hours in the plane I think a possible scenario has to be an upset initiated by a massively out of trim situation resulting from overpowering the AP? Fights the AP, doesn't understand the increasing control forces, eventually disconnects the AP and then a startle. Tried to stop the descent by hand with the Alt pre-select still active = nose down trim??
The King autopilots of 20+ years ago would do that. Modern autopilots fight for a bit and then disconnect. But any good checkout includes mist rims like that and how to disconnect the autopilot. That still makes it an upset.
@@FlyWirescottperdue Thanks Scott. I noted that it was built in 1998 and thought it might have the original AP
Scott are you thinking he was barrel rolling the tbm?
Highly likely.