Lovely insight mate, different stock sectors are in a bubble. But the question is when, or if this bubble will pop. I'm curious for the safest means to make plus interest regardless of stock market trends?
Moving out of the stock market due to fears of a bubble burst could be a wrong move. Instead, look for pockets within sectors that can help you to balance both growth and value or sometimes it's even better you speak to someone more enlightened to understand options best meant for you, I did the same myself, it’s paid off.
I've had a good run with energy stocks, right now I'm surfing the Al semiconductors wave into the next few decade. there are some good valuable PE ratio out there, which ain’t overpriced.
The first half doesnt feel like a conversation between two friends but rather the associate Brad presenting to the MD Bill answering questions like "have you considered that?", "what about this?", "why dont you go first and I'll tell you what I think"
Gents, wanted to thank you for steering clear of Politics (like All In, which thanks to Ball Sacks, rams it down our throats each week). Anyway, I appreciate you.
Great pod - and good push on both sides of where the compute spend will go. My guess is that there will be selective winners on compute - Microsoft, Google, Amazon - and most of the future demand will come from a) LLM architecture evolving (by virtue of research driven by current foundational model companies) and improving beyond its current limitations (which will reinforce scaling laws) b) use cases like autonomous driving, AlphaFold/AlphaGeometry, etc. which require massive compute, and will drive true compute demand in new areas beyond just LLMs (Outside of the 3 big ones, the rest will likely fall into the telco/infrastructure investment category, where most of the value capture will be on the application layer side)
Glad I found this…these are the two guests I enjoyed the most on All in. Brad’s time filling in there were some of the more informative episodes I’ve watched.
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer..
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I appreciate Brad’s push on Calcium CT Scan, but I have to say, it is not trivial to find to Place to do it. I did a lot of searches trying to find it in the Bay Area and you land in terrible websites from Stanford medical or Sutter Health and there are like 10 different types of options. It should just be easier to find a provider and schedule it
If you are interested in politics & business read Reid Hoffman's opinion piece. Those who study History know that Trump would be a disaster for business & our country. Businesses & our country both need the Rule of Law to prosper. The businessmen in Germany thought they could control Hitler, despite Mein Kampf. Businessmen today think they can control Trump, despite Project 2025. Trump is a convicted felon & fraudulent businessman, & can not be trusted.
can u share the mclinsey report? could not find it. is it this one: The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value?
BGs the calcium story is very old and objective Cardiologists have ben down this road Calcium has limited prognostic value as I understand it over my last 35 years working in med tech so?
Yes; all betting on building bigger and bigger LLMs …simply because people are afraid of potentially being left behind. But it doesn’t mean they won’t all hit the same wall - won’t scale. Billions to train new AI? Smaller LLMs and multi LLMs could work better.
Gents, appreciate the show. That said, you can’t apply traditional market analysis on the Ai revolution. P/E earnings mean nothing in this pursuit. This is the biggest thing literally EVER.
There are also studies suggesting copilots make white-collar workers 30-50% more productive ALREADY. Now, just multiply these productivity gains by the share of white-collar work of GDP (there is your return). Keep in mind the LLMs are also getting better.
quality analysis, thanks. the kind of quality that your friends over at All-In used to do before they got seduced by politics and the attention they're getting from that.
Elon once remarked that FSD is a sort of "Baby AGI." To have a truly intelligent level 5 system that can navigate any edge case that a human can, the model has to extract the concepts and goals of driving from video data. Is this possible with neural nets?
Brad, you have been advocating that every child be funded with $1K at birth by the Government that it grows to a sizable amount by the time the child becomes an adult. You met some members of the Congress if my memory is correct. In my opinion, the calcium CT scan also needs an advocate such as you. Thanks for the selfless good work.
LLM diminishing returns... just compare the facebook 70B vs 8B vs chatgpt. Sure there are differences in some cases, but even the 8B is really good enough for general usage.
On the GS report, spending for stock price is easier. When I was at Qualcomm Strategy, it's 'easy' to spend billions without use case when the stock price is doing well, when revenue is growing 100% every quarter. At one point, we had hands in every semi products that have $1B revenue/year on the planet. Obviously, not everything worked out. But to have that kind of investments available to tech without business was simple when stock and revenue are growing at very high rate.
Last one. On the current state of ai: The most effort in all BlackRock Vanguard DEI guided LLM's are not productive if you want #AI. If you want good results, you have to feed in all the data.
Ai investment has prisoner Dilemma dynamics. As long as the scaling hypothesis holds, ai investment will rise to the maximum that corporate balance sheets can sustain. If the scaling hypothesis holds beyond that level, nation states will grab the baton.
@@cyberft Proof of what? Your first sentence about "prisoner dilemma dynamics" makes little sense and isn't elucidated upon. Your second sentence has no basis on reality. Most non-big tech corporates are just spending the bare minimum on an LLM wrapper. The third sentence is unrealistic. Nations pay defense contractors to do this for them.
@@theonlycaulfield oracle, meta, xai, Msft, amzn, googl, even VC firms are all spending billions building gpu super clusters. They aren’t realizing revenue that justifies this. They are trying to get enough compute to continue scaling to potentially achieve AGI and ASI as that is game over for anyone that does not.
The question to ask with calcium scans is: Do those who take calcium scans live longer? Are there studies that show this? P.s. There's no such thing as "bad cholesterol". Why would your body make bad cholesterol? Evolution would stop this. Whenever you hear someone push stations you slide be highly skeptical. I did a Scammies episode about this topic:
On why I commented here, I saw a elon tweet on X and was interested. But the red frame gave it away immediately: why would a dude be wearing red frames. Either gay or trying to look important. My bet is on the second. I wish you well, you guys seem to do just fine.
Hey guys! I am the media manager for a tech UA-camr with over 1 million subs🎉 how do we get him on your podcast. I know you’d have epic conversations 😊
The rich & powerful (individuals & corporations) must pay their fair share, as taxes are the cost of civilization. In a more just society & economy, ALL Americans can better flouris, according to timeless wisdom.. Income & wealth inequality should be reduced for the common good. Don't trust me, read "Poverty, By America" by Princeton's Matthew Desmond.
I like that you guys cover markets and tech more often than all in.
All-in is a versatile podcast. This one is a tech market thermometer. Both of them have them merits.
I agree, would love to see Bg2 continue on this path, even if the episodes are released less often. G
Agreed! Great info!
@@krissn8111 All in is a sweater podcast as well.
all in is gonna be 50% politics till the US election season is over... maybe beyond that as well.
Best business pod on the planet. Thanks guys.
Love this pod, thank you gentlemen for staying in the markets and out of politics 🙏🏼 that’s exactly what I am looking for in a pod.
Same 😁
Yeah, this type of conversation used to be all in podcast, this is it now!
The excitement I previously got from seeing the thumbnail of a new all in ep has 100% transferred to this one.
Keep up the great work 🤘
Lovely insight mate, different stock sectors are in a bubble. But the question is when, or if this bubble will pop. I'm curious for the safest means to make plus interest regardless of stock market trends?
Moving out of the stock market due to fears of a bubble burst could be a wrong move. Instead, look for pockets within sectors that can help you to balance both growth and value or sometimes it's even better you speak to someone more enlightened to understand options best meant for you, I did the same myself, it’s paid off.
You can’t put certainty on stocks movements, the market is a zero-sum game (2 sides), Know that you are buying a company to own it.
my question is which stocks sectors should I consider adding to my fidelity.
I've had a good run with energy stocks, right now I'm surfing the Al semiconductors wave into the next few decade. there are some good valuable PE ratio out there, which ain’t overpriced.
Hey, appreciate the response. Would you be comfortable sharing more info with similar viewpoints. could really use it.
Great chart on the PE ratios right before the pullback. Thanks for sharing these insights for free!
The urge to watch the bg2 pod as soon as possible 💪
The first half doesnt feel like a conversation between two friends but rather the associate Brad presenting to the MD Bill answering questions like "have you considered that?", "what about this?", "why dont you go first and I'll tell you what I think"
Gents, wanted to thank you for steering clear of Politics (like All In, which thanks to Ball Sacks, rams it down our throats each week). Anyway, I appreciate you.
Thx for sharing the Calcium CT scan guys. Much appreciated ❤
Been looking forward to this..
Let's go Brad and Bill!
Wow Bubbles has come a long way since the Trailer Park Boys. It's amazing what some good booklearnin' can do.
😂😂😂😂
Great discussion as always. You guys have a great chemistry together & the content & subject matter is always interesting. Thank you both.
Thanks to you Brad, I went and got a calcium CT scan. Luckily everything was perfect but it's nice to have peace of mind.
Great pod - and good push on both sides of where the compute spend will go.
My guess is that there will be selective winners on compute - Microsoft, Google, Amazon - and most of the future demand will come from
a) LLM architecture evolving (by virtue of research driven by current foundational model companies) and improving beyond its current limitations (which will reinforce scaling laws)
b) use cases like autonomous driving, AlphaFold/AlphaGeometry, etc. which require massive compute, and will drive true compute demand in new areas beyond just LLMs
(Outside of the 3 big ones, the rest will likely fall into the telco/infrastructure investment category, where most of the value capture will be on the application layer side)
Glad I found this…these are the two guests I enjoyed the most on All in. Brad’s time filling in there were some of the more informative episodes I’ve watched.
Thanks BG2 for your takes on the market and informing all of us. Stay blessed
Thank you BG2s 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Incredibly timely and cogent discussion on Capex v. Return on AI investments. Excellent!
this is awesome to hear you both think through the market in such great detail, keep it up!
Brad, this is a great pod cast, thanks for all the charts!
excellent job guys, thank you
One of the best podcast right now.
Another great podcast! Thanks for doing these!
The best pod keep it up fellas!
Thanks. Another interesting conversation… and the Calcium CT scan information is a boon to your listeners.
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer..
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery
Glory to God shalom.
Thanks, gentlemen!
Best pod
Great show as always 🎉❤
great pod!
Extremely useful chart thanks for sharing Brad. AMZN and Meta looks like buys.
Bill pumping Zillow with the cap!
Double Down on the power of BG2
Thank you
Great work
Great podcast
Thank you for my TechMarkets intelligence analysis!
I appreciate Brad’s push on Calcium CT Scan, but I have to say, it is not trivial to find to Place to do it. I did a lot of searches trying to find it in the Bay Area and you land in terrible websites from Stanford medical or Sutter Health and there are like 10 different types of options. It should just be easier to find a provider and schedule it
I don't see any political comments in the timestamps. Thank you.
If you are interested in politics & business read Reid Hoffman's opinion piece. Those who study History know that Trump would be a disaster for business & our country. Businesses & our country both need the Rule of Law to prosper. The businessmen in Germany thought they could control Hitler, despite Mein Kampf. Businessmen today think they can control Trump, despite Project 2025. Trump is a convicted felon & fraudulent businessman, & can not be trusted.
Bill is speaking facts!
Brad is correct, the way LLMs work they will never be more useful in use cases which require high accuracy.
Can you gents find the time to do this weekly please?
Insightful
What a pair of glasses haha
Haha true
Keep going guys
can u share the mclinsey report? could not find it. is it this one: The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value?
BGs the calcium story is very old and objective Cardiologists have ben down this road Calcium has limited prognostic value as I understand it over my last 35 years working in med tech so?
Thank you for mentioning The Widowmaker movie. Disturbing facts.
Yes; all betting on building bigger and bigger LLMs …simply because people are afraid of potentially being left behind. But it doesn’t mean they won’t all hit the same wall - won’t scale. Billions to train new AI? Smaller LLMs and multi LLMs could work better.
Only 35 but I’ve had high LDL numbers for almost five years. Talked to my doc and got a referral for a CT scan.
High LDL doesn’t matter, HDL/triglycerides ratio is the important marker
What is the east meets west talk they mentioned a couple time?
I buy QQQs every month. Relentless bid. Wake me up in a decade.
The number of times that Klarna case study gets mentioned as the justification for a trillion bucks of capex!
Gents, appreciate the show. That said, you can’t apply traditional market analysis on the Ai revolution. P/E earnings mean nothing in this pursuit. This is the biggest thing literally EVER.
A calcium CT Scan cost $99.00 in South Louisiana and is available in many places.
Brad is one of those ppl that is a zero interest rate phenomenon. Never actually done anything but collect fees and watch numbers go up on a chart. ☮️
There are also studies suggesting copilots make white-collar workers 30-50% more productive ALREADY. Now, just multiply these productivity gains by the share of white-collar work of GDP (there is your return). Keep in mind the LLMs are also getting better.
Calcium CT scans are incredibly cheap. $100-$150. Insurance companies pay $500 -$3000. Once you have insurance pay for it it will go up by 3x - 20x
quality analysis, thanks. the kind of quality that your friends over at All-In used to do before they got seduced by politics and the attention they're getting from that.
Elon once remarked that FSD is a sort of "Baby AGI." To have a truly intelligent level 5 system that can navigate any edge case that a human can, the model has to extract the concepts and goals of driving from video data. Is this possible with neural nets?
Does Brad still own GRAB? He never talks about it.
Brad, you have been advocating that every child be funded with $1K at birth by the Government that it grows to a sizable amount by the time the child becomes an adult. You met some members of the Congress if my memory is correct. In my opinion, the calcium CT scan also needs an advocate such as you. Thanks for the selfless good work.
I didn't know he advocated for this. I've been saying this forever. Awesome
On the AWS: selling storage with a profit was a plan. Nothing to do with ai at the time.
Bill, thank you for nudging CT scans!
LLM diminishing returns... just compare the facebook 70B vs 8B vs chatgpt. Sure there are differences in some cases, but even the 8B is really good enough for general usage.
I wonder if the Vet clinic can get a referral to the Calcium CTC scan?
Ask your ivermectin provider
On the GS report, spending for stock price is easier. When I was at Qualcomm Strategy, it's 'easy' to spend billions without use case when the stock price is doing well, when revenue is growing 100% every quarter. At one point, we had hands in every semi products that have $1B revenue/year on the planet. Obviously, not everything worked out. But to have that kind of investments available to tech without business was simple when stock and revenue are growing at very high rate.
Pieces on the board for the players vs speculators on the side
Last one. On the current state of ai:
The most effort in all BlackRock Vanguard DEI guided LLM's are not productive if you want #AI. If you want good results, you have to feed in all the data.
CT calcium score is criticized on the basis of not enough randomized experimental data supporting its use.
Ai investment has prisoner Dilemma dynamics. As long as the scaling hypothesis holds, ai investment will rise to the maximum that corporate balance sheets can sustain. If the scaling hypothesis holds beyond that level, nation states will grab the baton.
@Natjkrass do you have an actual argument or proof that this isn’t the case?
@@cyberft Proof of what? Your first sentence about "prisoner dilemma dynamics" makes little sense and isn't elucidated upon. Your second sentence has no basis on reality. Most non-big tech corporates are just spending the bare minimum on an LLM wrapper. The third sentence is unrealistic. Nations pay defense contractors to do this for them.
@@theonlycaulfield oracle, meta, xai, Msft, amzn, googl, even VC firms are all spending billions building gpu super clusters. They aren’t realizing revenue that justifies this. They are trying to get enough compute to continue scaling to potentially achieve AGI and ASI as that is game over for anyone that does not.
This is why i used to tune in to the ALLIN POD. But now they has gone power grab mad.
The other 495 are not all down, there are gems like AnF for example. Would be good to get commentary on companies ogher than mag 7
Anf isn’t in the 500
@@spartaleonidas540 true, my point is to get more commentary on more of the stock market...Nasdaq and dow
Many aspects of the tax cut are ending in 2025 but the corporate tax will remain at 21% unless Congress changes that rate again.
Fantastic pod, Brad the glasses gotta go man, let em go, it'll be okay.
The question to ask with calcium scans is: Do those who take calcium scans live longer? Are there studies that show this?
P.s. There's no such thing as "bad cholesterol". Why would your body make bad cholesterol? Evolution would stop this. Whenever you hear someone push stations you slide be highly skeptical.
I did a Scammies episode about this topic:
‘21 multiples were driven by 0-1% 10 year treasury yields. That is probably not the right compare unless rates go back there.
And by fiscal spending estimates and liquidity.
Does Brad like to wear those red glasses when he has a bearish outlook on the markets?
On scaling on LLM's, why can't current LLM's answer that? Because it isn't about numbers and current LLM's have no predictions for the future...
On why I commented here, I saw a elon tweet on X and was interested.
But the red frame gave it away immediately: why would a dude be wearing red frames.
Either gay or trying to look important. My bet is on the second.
I wish you well, you guys seem to do just fine.
Hey guys! I am the media manager for a tech UA-camr with over 1 million subs🎉 how do we get him on your podcast. I know you’d have epic conversations 😊
High Cholesterol doesn’t cause plaque in the arteries.😊
ua-cam.com/video/b_ZB551ftD4/v-deo.htmlfeature=shared
Interest expense is the fastest-growing part of the budget. I don't see a Trump victory resulting in tax cuts. The budget pressure is just too high.
On the 100000 H100 bought by elon: define scaling...😂
Please keep covering business and tech. There's plenty of politics already if you ever think of venturing into that.
Just to clarify from today's pod. The Trump corporate tax cuts were permanent. The individual tax cuts end in 2025 (because they used reconciliation).
The rich & powerful (individuals & corporations) must pay their fair share, as taxes are the cost of civilization. In a more just society & economy, ALL Americans can better flouris, according to timeless wisdom.. Income & wealth inequality should be reduced for the common good. Don't trust me, read "Poverty, By America" by Princeton's Matthew Desmond.
Good pod, but man, those glasses are distracting.
Musk
the openai voice demo was faked.
Ahh yes the same old “inflows” and “cash on the sidelines” myths repeated
THIS DUDE BILL...thinks that research comes with no cost...I have healthcare stocks which hardly ever go up...wtf is talking about.
Trump 24
Can’t respect you with these glasses on