Neil Howe: Is Trump America’s ‘Gray Champion’ Like Lincoln or FDR?
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- Опубліковано 1 лют 2017
- If you haven’t read Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe’s book The Fourth Turning yet, we strongly suggest you do.
In this remarkably prescient book, Howe, the man who coined the term “millennials,” predicted that a crisis would hit America sometime around 2005.
He further stated that would set off:
“A decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.”
Sound familiar?
The 2006-2007 Housing Crisis… the tumultuous 2016 Election. America has entered what Howe calls the Fourth Turning. In his book, Howe writes that a “Gray Champion” is the climactic leader who ultimately rebuilds civic trust and instills confidence among the electorate. Previous “gray champions” include President Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Is Trump America’s next “Gray Champion”?
In the video above, Howe and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discuss. Both have some interesting thoughts on “Ivory Tower” mainstream media elites.
As much as I respect Neil Howe, he keeps saying that the Fourth Turning didn't begin until 2008 because for him and others like him in the property owning class it didn't. For the rest of us, that was 9/11. That was when the first big bubble blew out and Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% and prices for everything including food, energy and rent almost immediately went through the roof while wages continued to stagnate. Those of us without property, which is most of us, just got squeezed real hard by this. And that's just the economic aspect, this is also when it suddenly became necessary to have a passport to come home from Canada even though that wouldn't have stopped 9/11, this is also when the surveillance state went completely nuts and we had no-fly lists with random people's names practically picked out of a hat, etc. So for 90% of us this has been a Hell ride ever since late 2001. By that reckoning, the twenty year mark is only three years away as I write this in 2018.
yeah I think youre right on the money. I think trump is the response to that. hes the anti fake news that proceeded all after 911
@@solomonsfarm Trump is anti-fake news TO A POINT. His superfans don't get this because they're blinded by his cult of personality. When he reversed himself a week after he was elected on the issue of fake jobs numbers and the big, ugly bubble in stocks they didn't even notice, they just changed-up right along with him. To me he started sounding just like Obama when he went on and on about how great the stock market bubble is and how low the BS headline unemployment is and the lying corporate media certainly wasn't going to call him out on any of that. The rest is just window dressing, staged theatre for the benefit of crazed culture warriors who probably never understood his initial economic message to begin with. They also don't comprehend that Trump himself is the one who ordered that Hillary not be prosecuted after he proclaimed on national TV that the Clintons were "good people" and that he didn't want to hurt them. Steve Bannon said after their bromance broke up that Trump doesn't understand who his enemies are. Only after he realized there would be no quid pro quo from letting Hillary off the hook did nailing her suddenly become a priority again, but by then it was too late.
"Art of the Deal" indeed, he should have gotten it in writing before he started giving away the shop to his enemies. He can prattle on about the stock market all he wants, there's nothing the establishment can't get from him that they couldn't get from Pence more easily and they know it. Trump was doomed the moment he hesitated, the moment he thought he could cut deals with those people and betray his own base. Not the superfans, they're meaningless in terms of real political power. The forgotten rust belters who REALLY swung the election for him. Notice all of those states flipped back to Blue in the mid terms. That's hardly a coincidence. The man who empathized with their struggle was suddenly ranting about how lazy they were like some low rent Mitt Romney clone and threatening to cut their benefits, pretending he had eliminated all the damage done by twenty years of globalization just by hanging out in the White House for a few months and being really cool. They'd heard this garbage before, and already decided they'd had enough of it. The rest, as they say, is history. And not difficult to figure out unless your head is planted firmly up your rear end as Trump's apparently is. He's such a typical boomer just like Hillary is, it disgusts me to the core. (Disclosure, I'm GenX and I NEVER liked the boomers. They're like a plague of selfish, self-centered locusts and we'll be cleaning up their mess for the next hundred years.)
@@Trench216 "To me he started sounding just like Obama when he went on and on about how great the stock market bubble is and how low the BS headline unemployment is and the lying corporate media certainly wasn't going to call him out on any of that."
The market is mostly psychological, that is why Trump is pumping the numbers all around. What made the "great depression" worse in the 30's was the fact that the population, including business owners, fell prey to fear which further deepens contraction. You are missing the big picture.
Jason Berger the people you’re referring to don’t matter. In this model, civic involvement and governmental faith are the center which we must orbit and trust to end this chapter
It's now January 1, 2020. I'm convinced that things will get much worse before they get better. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a mild civil war.
You were right on, Mark.
August 2020... well, bang on, Mark! :P
good prediction
@@misvnderstood9068 I now predict that things are going to get worse after the election! But, any idiot can see that!
@@markflierl1624 Very true. Things may progressively get worse in the months following the election before we stabilize, unfortunately
Well, this didn’t age well. Instead of Trump being the “Gray Champion”, he’ll go down in history as the Orange Traitor.
how is he a traitor?
@@TheBobobobob123 TDS
Looking more and more like he is...the gray champion
This comment didn't age well. Trump 2024!!!!
@@BillAndInnaif only he'd have turned in the classified documents .
Saved himself a lot of problems
FYI: This guy uses quite a bit of Barnum language.
Hello, someone here could tell me why Neil Howe called him the gray champion, specifically gray because?
"The Grey Champion" was a short story written in 1837 by Nathaniel Hawthorne. It takes place in 1688, during an incident when King James II attempted to usurp the New England colonies' autonomy. The title character is an old man who leads the colonists in rebellion.
Howe & Strauss borrowed that term to mean an elder leader who provides moral guidance during a crisis. Ben Franklin, Thaddeus Stevens, Douglas MacArthur.
The authors warn that a Grey Champion, without cool-headed younger people, could lead a society toward destruction in the name of righteousness.
Interesting that he’s recently stopped dyeing his hair.
Let's see Grey Champions: Lincoln, FDR, Churchill, Trump... something doesn't look right
Watching this during the riots. Lol at Trump being the gray champion.
Narottama Panitz depends on which side you’re on ..... Trump 2020!
@@alexrivera4598 the first turning is a time of synergy for the entire country. So the gray champion would be a unifier. There wouldn't be a side.
@@master106 the grey champion hasn't appeared yet. Shit needs to hit the fan even harder
Both Lincoln and Trump had the Democrats go nuts. Trump will have to jail a lot of Democrats like Lincoln.
I remember when I watched this video for the first time in 2017. It really made me think and changed my understanding of the world completely.
However it's safe to say today (October 2020) that Trump missed the chance to become our Gray Champion. I don't see Biden becoming one either. Extremely uncertain future awaits us.
His personality destroyed his policy. Now we got probably the worst president in history, with possible voter fraud, the situation gonna turn from bad to worse.
Look at it through the eyes of the decentralization of our macro economy via the inevitably of digital assets and you'll see that we're in the early stages of this turning and it doesn't have a political face
One year on she has flushed that opportunity down the drain... Thats for sure.
I think it could be Al Gore. He made a prophecy and it came true, fully manifesting the prophet archetype. He also has a more millennial mindset that could galvanize that Hero generation under his flag, giving them the opportunity to be heroic. That is where Trump fails. He appeals to mostly boomers only.
Yeah Biden is an artist generation, not a prophet generation that is supposed to lead the country through the fourth turning. I also agree that trump is not the grey champion that unites the country under one cause. Although we definitely are in fourth turning times with all the civil strife that has been happening. Scary to see what will happen next and how it will play out, it’s like watching a movie but we are all extras
Gray champion status at this point is sus.
Biden is clearly the gray champion. He fits all of the archetypes, historical precedents and the demographic alignments.
Neither, whoever gets elected in November will be compared to Herbert Hoover
Super interesting watching this again 1 week before the 2020 election. It will be even more so next week...
in 2017 i laughed in 2022 i see he was onto something
In my opinion.. and I hold my opinion high I’d say yes Donald Trump is the gray champion and he will be back to win in 2024 and unite us and lead us out of this fourth turning.
Unity is not his brand. He is the last ego belch of the Boomer generation. It's time to step aside and finally let Gen X run stuff for a while.
44 was a Gen X, look what he did, lmao
@@phuckfumassters Obama was born in 1961. Baby boom ended in 1964. He was considered part of the boomer generation. He never got indicted, so I guess he wasn't even trying.
@@witzerdogdoesn't matter, it's not a hard rule. He's more Gen X than boomer. Keanu Reeves was born in 64 and he's definitely more Gen X than boomer.
Just bought the book
Orange man gray.
4:21 He laughs at the "ridiculous" notion.
Hahaha..."Trump is so bad, he's going to be impeached in his first term." Who's laughing now?
No one, dude got impeached in January.
@@UA-cam2021FM Yeah, in a completely contrived farce and miscarriage of justice. Next failed attempt at a presidential coup d'etat will end in federal executions.
mattferg100 oh gee, a Democrat majority house voted he did something wrong. Means less than nothing.
@@UA-cam2021FM your an idiot,Trump was not impeached. Get a brain fool
IMPEACHED times 2.
Trump a champion to anybody but himself?! You gotta be kidding! My optimism just took a blow that anyone could ask that question!
Unfortunately you're stupid.
@@ishadowxhunter-0135 Unfortunately for yo I could care less about your zombie trumpster conned-servative knee jerk opinion.
Lol doh this didn’t quite pan out
Pupils are not equal.
And here we are in 2021, and now we have the answers to the question (at least partial answers). Biden is an Artist, Harris is a Nomad, and the mid-terms and the 2024 election is looming. Of course, the role of the Gray Champion does not necessarily need to be filled by a 'Gray Champion'. In the last Fourth Turning, Germany and Japan were led by a Nomads. Italy was led by a Prophet, but not a good one for the Gray Champion role. FDR and Churchill were both prophets and did well. We live in interesting times.
Well, those dismissive laughs about impeachment didn’t work out so well.
Right? These guys have no idea.
The next President will be the grey champion
No. It's Trump.
Maybe this cycle is different and Trump is the grey anti-champion.
Ajay D Dave whoever is in the White House from 2020-2024 or 2024-2028 will be the grey champion. If Trump gets reelected it would show he has what it takes to politically survive and therefore would have a shot at it.
TRUMP !
Joe Stevens, Trump could be one of the grey champions. It’s possible after Trump leaves office either by death or completion, Mike Pence could take over. He could be a grey champion too.
MAYBE the gray champion is RYAN COHEN.....
reminds me of a quote by Nikita Khrushchev" that Russia would take over America without firing a shot"
John Cole not russia per se she was referring more to communism. I know that quote very well. It was foreshadowing cultural Marxism
More like China
The Skorownek cycle of political time puts Trump in the "disjunctive" spot, which would theoretically imply that the president after him, likely a democrat, will be the great reconstructive leader.
+Christian Round
Democrats have no such leader on the horizon. Their party is consumed with left wing socialist politics that revolves around social justice. That will not appeal to the America public on any level.
The democratic leader that comes next could be a Jimmy Carter and the following leader will be a Reagan.
Agreed!
I think it’s Rand Paul. The Paul’s have actually built their credibility being strong on civil liberties. They’ve been outspoken critics of the Fed for decades. Ron Paul had a strong millennial following when he ran for president. Equally he was sidelined by party insiders.
Rand is the natural progression towards a leader pushing us all towards more libertarian future.
@@reactionary_orca that didn’t age well
@@humbertojimenez3475 probably not, now I haven’t a clue what comes next. Maybe DeSantis? Well see
Has Trump ever made a good decision. 🤔
Even though he was not elected president, when you ask younger people in 10 year they will say Bernie Sanders is who was an important figure for him. His grassroots movement is already making changes.
Outside of his cult following, Sanders will be nothing more than an asterisk in the future.
@@finchboratLike your Trump, right? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@OldHeathen1963 Had he never been elected, yes.
Btw, Biden will be on that list. He'll be the type that no one remembers 10 or 20 yrs from now. He's a failure.
This didn't age well. How did this dude think Trump was going to be some great leader? LOL
Are you rethinking that. DJT story is not over
Ron Desantis
I don’t think the Gray Champion. I think it might be Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yes!
I don't think it's RFK Jr either.
Trump has gained popularity and is the Gray Champion
If Trump is correct, and the 2020 election was stolen, Trump is likely the gray champ.
If he's wrong and Biden won, the gray champ has yet to reveal himself.
Looks more and more like DJT is the real deal and will deliver
(its bernie)
@NPC Jesus well really generation theory is mystical nonsense but if you want an old timer who connects with the rising generation in order to solve a great crisis bernie fits that narrative more than anyone else. In reality there are no saviors in politics and sometimes (often) crises aren't solved and bad situations just continued to get worst so who knows
😅😅😅😅
Answer:
NO
Trump? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Biden is our William McKinley
No. More like Jimmy Carter. Incompetent and not knowing what he's doing.
@@finchborat Mckinley was bought and paid for buy Carnegie Rockefeller Morgan
The only time the percentage of GDP spent on an election has been this high was then and with Biden
@@finchborat Nah. Carter was an outsider too honest for the job. Biden doesn't suffer these problems.
@@jmwichert8842 Biden isn't honest at all. He's an old coot.
One man's "Champion" is another man's Opressor. This shit is all relative.
Yeah I'm sure FDR was an oppressor to conservative weirdos in the the 1930s-40s.
Who did he oppress
Trump? To put it bluntly...no.
The Us currently has it's grey champion though!
and who is that?
@@daimon9 I wonder
No we don't. That old coot Biden won't do anything positive. He's already a screw up.
Well ... he definitely brought us to a crisis. REALLY don't think he's the "gray champion", more like a slug.
Trump tried, maybe. But it’s Congress that passed the insane debt. I’ll expect our fourth turn soon now
@@clintonlunn4357 Has any president? FED will just print trillions in trillions funding pork and stick us with the taxes and inflation
@@clintonlunn4357 dont think anyone cares. Only Rand or Ron Paul have I heard anything about decreasing spending. Politicians get elected by promising people free stuff. I’ll listen to JFK 1961 inaugural speech for reference. Get ready for inflation
No it’s Biden, lol
I don't see the old coot as the grey champion.
It will be Trump's son.
It's great not gray lol
Howe is a total lefty and has a lefty bias
Can't stand the guy
boooooring