How to Navigate the Coming Liquidity Crisis in Equity Markets? NIFTY-50 Crash | Reverse Repo | Fed

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  • Опубліковано 26 січ 2025

КОМЕНТАРІ • 746

  • @IndraanilGuha
    @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +20

    In this video, I explain how the emerging liquidity condition in 2024 is eerily similar to the emergence of severely tight liquidity conditions in the US financial system back in 2019. I also endeavor to explain in this video how the RRP facility has so far provided liquidity support to the US financial system and prevented 2019-like tight liquidity conditions from materializing. But the balance in the RRP is now down to less than 20% of its original balance, and once the RRP is fully exhausted, there is a very real risk that we could see severely tight liquidity conditions actually materializing in the US financial system, and that can only mean a heightened risk of a sell-off in equity markets.

    • @sureshsaboo7310
      @sureshsaboo7310 9 місяців тому +1

      Don't you think there is too much emphasis on FII inflows. As per my understanding FII have been selling for most part of the last Financial year. Domestic Institutions & Retailers have done bulk of the buying.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +8

      Great point Sir... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus.
      I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that.
      I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at:
      ua-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/v-deo.html
      (watch from 08:11)
      I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details

    • @Finance_n_knowledge
      @Finance_n_knowledge 9 місяців тому

      ​@@sureshsaboo7310great point sir

    • @gauriblomeyer1835
      @gauriblomeyer1835 9 місяців тому

      The economy of a country is difficult to analyze because one has to know the situation how the country developed in the past 50 years and how the country’s firms are situated in comparison to competitors in other countries. That is a task which invites prophecy.

    • @bhushymistry
      @bhushymistry 9 місяців тому

      Though liquidity will get tightened in USA, won't decreasing interest rates help in bringing in more liquidity into system and balance the tightening?

  • @RaminderSingh-rv4lm
    @RaminderSingh-rv4lm 9 місяців тому +22

    I rarely take the time to leave comments on UA-cam videos, but your meticulous analysis of the liquidity situation has compelled me to express my gratitude. Your thorough examination of the topic, combined with the clarity and depth of your insights, truly sets your content apart. It’s evident that you’ve invested significant effort in researching and presenting this valuable information. Thank you for sharing your expertise. Looking forward to more insightful content from you

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому +1

      Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled! Glad you like the video

  • @adityanair2355
    @adityanair2355 9 місяців тому +33

    I've learned so much today...my entire 20 years of education feels nothing infront of this vidoe.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +3

      Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled!
      Very happy to know that you liked the video

    • @Vk1.007
      @Vk1.007 8 місяців тому +1

      So what to do exactly.
      Book complete profit and wait for fresh entry or book partial profits?

  • @narasimmamurthyr2534
    @narasimmamurthyr2534 9 місяців тому +2

    You are a god send sir ji . Though we were fed info on QE, QT etc., we were never told in such clarity about liquidity , repo rate , debt ceiling, fed balance sheet in one canvas . 💐🙏

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

  • @narasimmamurthyr2534
    @narasimmamurthyr2534 9 місяців тому +2

    Gratitude becomes of you. The content on yield curve inversion was a big informative experience to me.
    I thought I was aware of yield curve . But the clarity opened my eyes to my deficit in the all important morsel of knowledge. Your painstaking approach and the charts were commendable.
    I was already informed of yield curve inversion in US and the lead lag effect . Yet I was unaware completely about the duration and extent of yield curve inversion. It was truly scary . That , sir , is a tribute to your sterling efforts

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled!
      Very happy to know that you liked the video

  • @annasopatil6504
    @annasopatil6504 9 місяців тому +1

    One of the truly educational UA-cam channels I have came across. The simplicity in your explanation is quite amazing. Keep up the good work sir for retail investors.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video...

  • @anishchand4664
    @anishchand4664 8 місяців тому +8

    I have been in the market for a long time and first time I heard such clarity on a complex topic. Great work and thanks.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks...glad you liked the video

  • @gagarwal
    @gagarwal 8 місяців тому +8

    I have shared this lecture (yes i would call this a lecture and not just a youtube video)… in all my investment discord groups…. One of the best i have ever heard on this subject… thank you sir 🙏

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому +1

      Gaurav, many thanks for the kind words and for sharing the video with your friends and family... really glad you found the content to be useful

  • @prashbal3001
    @prashbal3001 8 місяців тому +2

    I have no words to express my thanks to you for taking the time out to explain such complex subject in a very simple and concise manner. I've never come across any youtube video from FA's explaining the implication of US Fed decisions on our markets. Looking forward to you next video 🙏

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
      Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

  • @san2881
    @san2881 9 місяців тому +2

    You are such a broad-minded person to share such valuable knowledge free of cost. I felt like attending a session on finance at a premium management institution. Looking forward to more of your videos sir.

    • @Dushyantgiri
      @Dushyantgiri 9 місяців тому +1

      Even better than that..

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for such generous appreciation... am truly humbled... really glad you liked the video
      And thanks again for subscribing to my channel

    • @sandipbhattacharya8069
      @sandipbhattacharya8069 9 місяців тому +1

      Well mentioned. For common Investors, who are truly keen to learn, these are lessons and tools which are priceless nuggets.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Mr. Bhattacharya, you are very very kind! Thanks once again for these kind words

    • @sandipbhattacharya8069
      @sandipbhattacharya8069 9 місяців тому +1

      @@IndraanilGuha Pray, you do well Indraanil. May all the knowledge that you are attempting to disseminate be picked upon by those who are serious about learning, both, the fundamentals and the nuances within 🙏🏻

  • @chandrashekardm7110
    @chandrashekardm7110 9 місяців тому +10

    I have never seen any youtuber explain with so much clarity the most complex topics like quantitative tightening/easing, liquidity crunch and impact of fed decision on financial markets.
    You have such good grip on such complex topics!
    Its simply amazing.
    Where were you so many days sir?😂

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +5

      Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video
      My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
      And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel

    • @narendranath2647
      @narendranath2647 9 місяців тому +1

      Superbly presented Sir, Highly appreciated your efforts. Very informative 😊

    • @narendranath2647
      @narendranath2647 9 місяців тому +1

      Am a veterinary doctor and really I learned something new in this video 🙏😊

  • @karthikvellaichamy8198
    @karthikvellaichamy8198 9 місяців тому +6

    I usually look for buffet indicator, but this is much better and adding more value in context to nifty

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for the kind words.... truly humbled!

  • @moneyvcash
    @moneyvcash 7 місяців тому +1

    Thank you is such a small word for the kind of quality of content you provided. Hats off to you for educating the laymen in a fairly easy manner.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  7 місяців тому

      Many Thanks... Glad you liked the content

  • @venkateshs4227
    @venkateshs4227 9 місяців тому +1

    Good content and analysis.
    With this type of content, hope u will get more than a million subscribers .

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks for such kind words... really glad you liked the video

  • @fasolati1690
    @fasolati1690 9 місяців тому +32

    But sir that is about US market (of course it affects global markets). Can you take into account what is going on in Indian markets for the last many months? Almost every day, FII/FPI sell while DII stabilize our market by using the enormous liquidity at their disposal. The mutual fund houses seem to have enough cash inflow from retail investors and others to make sure that the market is never under control by FII/FPI.

    • @coldstone87
      @coldstone87 9 місяців тому +1

      Exactly!

    • @dastapan1000
      @dastapan1000 9 місяців тому +2

      Wait bro, after every bull run there have a bear phase

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +14

      Great point... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus.
      I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that.
      I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at:
      ua-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/v-deo.html
      (watch from 08:11)
      I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details

    • @ojaswidikshit
      @ojaswidikshit 9 місяців тому +3

      Bhai I will tell you one thing, this is a very good question indeed. Let me tell you what is happening. Entities like pfrda/ESIC/LIC ie insurance and pension schemes are stabalising the market. However, this has created a passive investing bubble. This passive investing will crash once a severe crash sets in. When nifty say drops to 10,000 and there are no buyers what do you think will happen. Having said this, this is a doomsday scenario, it won't happen until a war or something. But I believe we will see such a collapse world wide in next few years.

    • @harshtrivedi5127
      @harshtrivedi5127 9 місяців тому +1

      1)Your theory is totally dependent on liquidity provided by RRP. but from last 1 year FII s are net sellers .. DII and retailers are purchasing the stocks. Government also through indirectly maintaining the market..
      2)more over I belive this liquidity provided by RRP is devided across the globe.. so there are chances that the fresh liquidity may not come but FII may move their fund from China to India as Chinese markets are nt stable.. so we can not just rely on Macro triggers.. Indian economy is at different level now.. at micro level Indian market seems fundamentally and technically both way do not seems over valued.
      3) impact of inflation may differ in developed country and developing country so there are chances that RBI may cut interest rate before Fed. As in recent Comentory Fed said tht rate cut may delay.
      So According to me we also take into account micro points as well rather than just focusing on USA.

  • @vedantgala289
    @vedantgala289 8 місяців тому +1

    Crazy crazy video. Epitome of the KISS strategy - keep it short and simple! Such clarity over complex issue of liquidity in the markets. Amazing. Loved it. Subscribed.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the video
      And yes, my key motivation behind creating these videos is to explain the underlying concepts without making them sound like rocket science

  • @ashhere31
    @ashhere31 7 місяців тому +2

    Amazing vide sir. You have superb knowledge 👍
    I have rarely seen such deep analysis of these subjects on UA-cam

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  7 місяців тому

      Many thanks.... Glad you liked the content

  • @sandipbhattacharya8069
    @sandipbhattacharya8069 9 місяців тому +1

    Very good informative video. Hope, more and more youngsters seriously follow the underlying concepts & triggers and try to learn from all the effort you are putting in.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Mr Bhattacharya, many many thanks for these kind words once again... really glad you liked this video as well

  • @nitinjain786
    @nitinjain786 9 місяців тому +1

    U r analysis and research is very deep... Good work and thanks for sharing this with us..

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

  • @koushikbandyopadhyay6261
    @koushikbandyopadhyay6261 8 місяців тому

    Thanks

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Koushik, many thanks for this expression of support... Really appreciate the spirit behind the contribution, but to be honest, this was not needed. I'll be just as grateful for your love and support, even if not accompanied by a monetary contribution!
      ভাল থেকো

    • @koushikbandyopadhyay6261
      @koushikbandyopadhyay6261 8 місяців тому

      I'm sorry, but I didn't mean to hurt you.
      I was overwhelmed by your lecture, though I had been a finance professional myself.
      Never new things can be made so simple. 👍🏻

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      I'm not hurt Koushik.. I'm just as overwhelmed with this kind of love and support pouring in from kind souls like you. Thank you once again for the love and support

  • @shahfareed
    @shahfareed 7 місяців тому +1

    I am unable to adequately express my appreciation for the exceptional manner in which you elucidated the subject matter. Although I have not yet joined any channels, my intuition strongly suggests that I should do so in your case. Your profound knowledge is truly awe-inspiring.

    • @shahfareed
      @shahfareed 7 місяців тому

      I am pleased to have discovered your channel when it had only 20,000 subscribers. Within a few years, this channel has the potential to reach millions of subscribers, and I would be honored to have joined at an early stage.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  7 місяців тому

      Many thanks @shahfareed for these extraordinarily kind words
      Glad you liked my content

  • @the_penetrator
    @the_penetrator 8 місяців тому +3

    Such an underrated gem of a channel

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому +1

      Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video

  • @sanchitgera8074
    @sanchitgera8074 7 місяців тому +1

    Amazing video sir .. thankyou so much for sharing such in-depth knowledge

  • @amanarora5838
    @amanarora5838 9 місяців тому +5

    Great help for retail investors like me. GOD bless!!!!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @11namaste11
    @11namaste11 9 місяців тому +3

    Price based correction may come, but nifty may not fall as much as being assumed in the video.
    Nevertheless its an impeccable research work. Kudos. I've subscribed.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks.... glad you at least liked the research that went into the video.
      And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel...
      I have NOT tried to speculate on the quantum of the correction that is to come... I have only laid down the conditions that must be met, post which the probability of a correction would become higher and hence it would help if investors are doubly cautious then

  • @barund5903
    @barund5903 7 місяців тому +1

    Exceptionally well demonstrated lecture with in depth analysis and artifacts... THANKS! a lot for presenting such valuable learning videos on free platform like youtube.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  7 місяців тому

      Many thanks for these beautiful and kind words… very happy that you found the content useful! Many thanks once again for taking time to leave behind this super strong note of support and appreciation!
      Greatly appreciated!

  • @kishorerao7974
    @kishorerao7974 8 місяців тому +1

    Fantastic! Very indepth, deep dive into the looming liquidity crisis. Insights were Very impressive. Thanks.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the video

  • @bharatkapur6077
    @bharatkapur6077 9 місяців тому +1

    Excellent explanation.. Thank you . Eagerly waiting for next video...

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video

  • @mithilpatel-p1z
    @mithilpatel-p1z 9 місяців тому +8

    Have never heard such a nice talk which could be understood by a layman like me

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful!

  • @Travellholik
    @Travellholik 9 місяців тому +2

    Thanks for taking the pain to discuss these less discussed points. It may not attract a lot of viewership but is going to help people who are serious to understand the realm of equity investing. Your content is a gem. You got a new disciple. Thank you. #mangopeopleeconomics

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

    • @Travellholik
      @Travellholik 9 місяців тому

      @@IndraanilGuha Hi, plan some offline event to explain these data points as a sessions, so we get a chance to meet you as well.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      You are very kind...
      I do have plans to organize meet-ups with my viewers and clients at least in the major cities... will keep you posted as and when plans crystallize a bit more.
      Where are you based?

    • @Travellholik
      @Travellholik 9 місяців тому +1

      Hi,@@IndraanilGuhai am based in Bangalore. Thanks

  • @PrashantSingh-gk2wu
    @PrashantSingh-gk2wu 8 місяців тому +1

    This channel would soon be one of the credible and popular one. Wish you all the best for making quality content.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @shanch4055
    @shanch4055 8 місяців тому +1

    Was familiar with the various terms, but the clarity with which you have put them together to explain the situation we are in - is commendable. Kudos to your great effort.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @deveshmaheshwari6598
    @deveshmaheshwari6598 9 місяців тому +10

    You will grow fast but only with people who know basics of economics and are serious investors . Good you are not playing to the gallery .

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks Mr Maheswari for your support... glad you liked this video too

  • @amit297500
    @amit297500 9 місяців тому +3

    kudos to the YT algo for recommending this video ..Dear @Indraanil many congratulations to you for making this awesome content and breaking down QE , QT is such a simple language .. now will watch all other videos posted by you ..cant wait for another one ..thx

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your support... glad you liked the video

  • @SUDIPTOSHAW-uj2gt
    @SUDIPTOSHAW-uj2gt 9 місяців тому +2

    Indranil Sir you are brilliant, in all your videos you have served the most complex concepts in the ever most simplest way with strong basics. Fortunate to find & connect you in You Tube!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @sanjaysawhney3035
    @sanjaysawhney3035 9 місяців тому +19

    A good analysis indeed! But best of the experts worldwide could never predict market crashes and hence this time also if it happens so is not going to be an exception. Thus, no body should either predict a crash or a boom irrespective of data and statistics as these data are only indicative in nature but not decisive. In the history of Independent India, India has witnessed 6 market cashes, 1982, 1992 (12.77%), 2008 (15%), 2015 (5.9%), 2016 (6%), 2020 (13.5%) but nobody could predict any of the crashes.
    This time yes Inflation is a major factor worldwide but the story in India is positively biased, the commodity cycle has started moving up benefitting commodity stocks, India's forex reserves standing at $6,42,631 million a record high, a robust growth rate outlook of 7.6 to 7.8% escalating to $3.6 trillion dollar and becoming fifth largest economy from 8th position, a robust capex push of government spending to 11 lakh crores, RBI’s smart management economics over inflation, rising consumption patterns, major push to defence production in India and rising GST collections (Rs.1.78 lakh crore in April, 2024), surplus liquidity condition in banking system and record inflow into mutual funds industry (AUM has grown from ₹ 23.80 trillion as on March 31, 2019 to ₹53.40 trillion as on March 31, 2024, more than 2 fold increase in a span of 5 years), ever highest exports of $776.3 billion in 2022-23, average agricultural growth of 4.6% in past 5 years and efficient government management over agriculture, are some of the factors which shall fuel the markets in India. Although short term corrections cannot be ruled out but those corrections shall not change the trend in the near term and thus every correction shall prove to be a buying opportunity rather than market crash.

    • @rsubhasify
      @rsubhasify 8 місяців тому

      India will correct anyway after elections irrespective of which party comes to power...it is going to correct deeply if Congress comes to power since it is going to be a change in power

    • @chddhn7410
      @chddhn7410 8 місяців тому

      Only HOW is being explained. But WHEN is/was nobody's guess.

    • @Chirag-f3u
      @Chirag-f3u 8 місяців тому +2

      @@rsubhasify congress will not come to the power

    • @jesusite69
      @jesusite69 8 місяців тому

      ​@@rsubhasify Congress will not come to power in the first place, if they come it won't be correction but an death of indian Market. 😂

    • @priyesh350
      @priyesh350 8 місяців тому

      ​@@Chirag-f3ustill market will correct after election...

  • @freespirit489
    @freespirit489 9 місяців тому +1

    Great content n analysis with a simplistic way of explaining, with dots connected to arrive at insights! More success to you Indranil !

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video

  • @vasanpk3404
    @vasanpk3404 8 місяців тому +1

    Thank god for today I happened to watch this channel. Sir no words the knowledge of economics you're giving and the edge of your analysis are amazig.All the very best to you and I am pretty sure this channel going to be darling of Indian investors. Subscribed.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @VijayGupta-hb3gx
    @VijayGupta-hb3gx 8 місяців тому +1

    Every thing is clear with examples on the charts. Thanx for the dideo.

  • @nealserra6827
    @nealserra6827 9 місяців тому +1

    What an absolutely fantastic education. Hats off to the time and effort you put in and the patience with which you explain. I have subscribed and am really looking forward to your future videos.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled!
      Glad you liked the video

  • @vasuvasu1619
    @vasuvasu1619 8 місяців тому +1

    Excellent content and it's eye opening... No words for your valuable content. Thank you and pls keep us searching for your contents.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @gaathastory
    @gaathastory 9 місяців тому +8

    Actual video starts after 5:45. Nearly 6 minutes of fluff almost made me leave, respecting the comments before mine that are singing praises of this video and knowledge. Willing to
    give it a chance.

    • @Jaihokarma
      @Jaihokarma 8 місяців тому

      Starting mein Bohot e gas dete hain 😅😅😅

  • @therollingwalnut
    @therollingwalnut 8 місяців тому +1

    Many thanks to you sir for explaining such complex topics in such an easy manner.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
      Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

  • @jmehta5357
    @jmehta5357 9 місяців тому +4

    Even this Video ain't bad, Indraani. You have an amazing ability to explain things to a non economist. Thank you bro.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words Mr Mehta... really glad you liked the video...

    • @HimanshuGupta-ex4yq
      @HimanshuGupta-ex4yq 9 місяців тому +1

      I second that, never been able to understand this QT, QE and Reverse Repo before

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... very happy to know the video was helped you better understand concepts like QE / QT / Reverse Repo

  • @AllCreativeFact
    @AllCreativeFact 8 місяців тому +22

    Don’t sell any thing just hold. They try to trick you to sell all ur holding so that big fish could buy them for short time profit.

    • @aryanaryan9282
      @aryanaryan9282 8 місяців тому +1

      No matter what you say, they'll sell anyway😂

    • @gautamghosh1615
      @gautamghosh1615 8 місяців тому +2

      Portfolio crashed I am selling

    • @Aceinvesto
      @Aceinvesto 8 місяців тому +3

      Ase hi bol bol ke Retailers ko Faste hain ... don't sell don't sell. . are bhai Jiska Target achieved ho gaya hai .. market se bahar niklo

    • @akkinana
      @akkinana 8 місяців тому

      ​@@gautamghosh1615 hope you did not sell

    • @priyesh350
      @priyesh350 8 місяців тому

      ​@@gautamghosh1615ok dada

  • @geraldkhasi1006
    @geraldkhasi1006 8 місяців тому +1

    solid content sir. Im from the northeastern state of India , Meghalaya where we can only rely people like you to get data which helps us position ourselves

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Gerald, many thanks... very glad you liked the content!
      And glad more so to hear from someone from Meghalaya... my mom is from Shillong, and I have so many fond memories of the beautiful place!

    • @geraldkhasi1006
      @geraldkhasi1006 8 місяців тому

      @@IndraanilGuha really ,thats nice which part of Shillong was she from?

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому +1

      Jail Road

  • @sujayrainchwar884
    @sujayrainchwar884 8 місяців тому +2

    What a fantastic class sir. EVen a non-finance person like me could understand it pretty clearly. Hats off to you. I just completed Stress Test book by Timothy Giethner on the 2008 collpase. This video helped me explain many things I couldn't understand in the book.You have an amazing gift of teaching.

  • @SuperDry_
    @SuperDry_ 9 місяців тому +2

    Hi Indra, your expertise in the world financial system and based on it the guidance to your viewers is highly commendable. It's 'Next Level' to be precise. I am a recent subscriber and will be eager to watch all your videos. Don't worry about your current subscriber base, it will surely grow. Someone has to be really smart to understand your view because the general masses are not as fluent on the topic. I'm sure all the top financial gurus must be watching you. Try to include Hindi subtitles as that is where most of your potential subscribers may come from. All the best and thanks for all the hard work that goes into making such intelligent content 👍

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +1

      Many many thanks for your love and support Sir... glad you liked the video
      And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel
      I will soon be launching my Hindi channel and all my videos will soon be available there in Hindi too

  • @mohanthomas9050
    @mohanthomas9050 9 місяців тому

    A life time worth of wisdom. Great work Sir. Slow & steadily your journey on this channel will be accepted & its a matter of time , you will be a star. Its a high quality work.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for the kind words... really feel blessed to see outpour of such generous affection from my audience... many thanks again

  • @milans5065
    @milans5065 9 місяців тому +1

    Great video explaining very complex concepts in a very simple to understand language for layman. Waiting for your next video.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for such generous praise.... glad you liked the video

  • @16kumar
    @16kumar 9 місяців тому +1

    Great analysis, information and really worth the time, thanks for sharing such indepth analysis, as of now no one sharing such high quality stuff and it really needs high level of economic background to understand.... No ordinary person can understand that! Blessed to have this higher order knowledge

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
      And thanks again for subscribing to the channel

  • @KrishnaMurtyManguluru
    @KrishnaMurtyManguluru 9 місяців тому +1

    Very nice, elaborate but simple explanation of the situation. Thank You for all your efforts 🙏

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many Thanks.... Glad you liked the video

  • @shivkapoor5474
    @shivkapoor5474 6 місяців тому +1

    Phenomenal stuff sir your content is superb just one advice from my side please guide us also how to select a stock by explaining cash flow roe roce for a non commerce background in easy laymen language hope i will get a response

  • @RamKumar-xm8by
    @RamKumar-xm8by 9 місяців тому +1

    Content is really informative even a newbie could understand. Kudos to the effort❤..

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video

  • @UshaRani-sm3if
    @UshaRani-sm3if 9 місяців тому +1

    Guha sir fabulous wisdom you shared today i have watched your three videos regarding corelation between liquidity , market growth , fef fund rate and inflation corelation ....fabulous content sir best wishes for u sir

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @anileshish
    @anileshish 8 місяців тому +1

    Amazing analysis Indraneel da. Despite being a student of finance, I was not able to understand a lot of back end movement of money between various govt and banking players.
    Big thanks for lucidly explaining it.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

  • @biswajitpakrashi8373
    @biswajitpakrashi8373 8 місяців тому

    Thank you for your extremely valuable content . Now I have been able to understand the complex financial market with clarity . Excellent presentation . Please keep up. !

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
      Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

  • @Shaan248
    @Shaan248 9 місяців тому +1

    Amazing explanation of the market workings. I am sure a lot of work has gone into making this video. Thank you!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

  • @johndsa3325
    @johndsa3325 9 місяців тому +1

    Amazing insights Sir ! Thank you for enlightening us with your expertise. Looking forward to such content.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

  • @jayakrishna6635
    @jayakrishna6635 9 місяців тому +2

    Can u explain the effect of DIIs(from SIPs and retail investors) constantly being on buy side even though FIIs are taking out significant amounts from Indian markets in recent months? Can DIIs alone sustain current market levels?

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Great question... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus.
      I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that.
      I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at:
      ua-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/v-deo.html
      (watch from 08:11)
      I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details

  • @cake794
    @cake794 9 місяців тому +1

    Excellent explanation. It also answers the questions I had in the previous video. Ty

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +1

      Many thanks once again for taking the time to show your appreciation once again... really glad you liked the video

  • @thetruthandnobs
    @thetruthandnobs 9 місяців тому +1

    Hi. I am a new listener from Hong Kong. Thank you for making your videos in English. Pertinent information.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for love and support.... glad you liked the video

  • @mallikarjun2030
    @mallikarjun2030 9 місяців тому +1

    One of the most eye opening session I have seen. Pls educate us as yu are very good sir

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video
      And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel

  • @ekanshranjan01
    @ekanshranjan01 9 місяців тому +1

    Your painstaking efforts are highly appreciated
    Complex topics presented with such detailed analysis and explained in simple ways
    My key takeaway is the learning, nevermind the stock market returns.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video
      My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content

  • @reghuvarier9851
    @reghuvarier9851 9 місяців тому +1

    Appreciate your great efforts and courtesy to share such informative videos.❤. Please do a video on the current geo political issues and its impacts to our market. Tnx

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video

  • @ToTheMoon8128
    @ToTheMoon8128 8 місяців тому

    Another XLNT video with clear and useful information. Thank you, Mr, Guha. Many greetings from Denmark

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks... very happy to know that you found the content to be useful

  • @Useraa71
    @Useraa71 8 місяців тому +1

    BRILLIANT EXPLANATION SIR , SUBSCRIBED AND SHARED - WAITING FOR MORE ENLIGHTMENT FROM YOU . THANK YOU SIR JI .ONE MORE REQUEST HOW OR WHERE CAN WE GET THE LATEST NEWS ON FED -WHICH NEWS CHANNEL TO FOLLOW?PLEASE TELL . HEARTLY THANKS ONCE AGAIN .

  • @vik8691
    @vik8691 9 місяців тому +1

    What about if the scenario given below plays out, if FED
    1. Stop issuing treasuries by running down the Treasury General Account to zero, that is a $1tn injection of liquidity.
    2. Shift more borrowing to T-bills, which removes money from RRP, that is a $400bn injection of liquidity.
    3. Combo of 1 and 2, issue no long term bonds, only bills and run down TGA and RRP at the same time, that is a $1.4tn injection of liquidity.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Will be super bullish for stocks till it lasts... Point 2 is playing out anyways as we speak, and ha been at play for almost a year now, and that alone has helped drive almost every equity market around world to new all time highs

  • @Pramoddhyani
    @Pramoddhyani 9 місяців тому +1

    Very nice vedio.... thanks

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... really glad you liked the video

  • @rameshkulkarni8673
    @rameshkulkarni8673 9 місяців тому +2

    excellent demonstration!! tremendous knowledge truely. i am honest admirer of you.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video

  • @pattabiramannarayanaswami7522
    @pattabiramannarayanaswami7522 9 місяців тому +3

    Excellent Analysis.Hats off to u in educating the world.My doubt is inspie of printing billions of US dollars, How is it currency is not becoming weak globally where as in India or any other country printing excessive currency results in Rupee or respective countries currency becoming weaker raising dollar index no.This step-motherly treatment is adharma

    • @Opiniated
      @Opiniated 8 місяців тому

      Beacuse dollar is defacto currency, due to wars and ongoing inflation and local currency weakening many countries are buying dollars aggresively, for example turkey. Petro dollar, etc etc are some among the many factors. Infact while writing this down now i am thinking is this because is govt is funding wars 🧐🧐 hmm

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful!
      US dollar NOT weakening because of such gargantuan amounts of money printing is because of the extraordinary privilege of being the reserve currency of the world! But this is exactly the kind of abuse of the reserve currency status that has led to the downfall of every reserve currency in history, and the eventual decline of the US Dollar because of similar abuse will be a story that's no different!

  • @mvsukumarannambiar6330
    @mvsukumarannambiar6330 8 місяців тому

    Excellent class, no words to describe. Even a MBA student will get benefitted. Thanks

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video
      Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

  • @koushikchakraborty6216
    @koushikchakraborty6216 9 місяців тому +1

    Excellent explanation of complicated economics I was hungry about

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... really glad you liked the video

  • @zango2121
    @zango2121 9 місяців тому +2

    FED was printing all along when markets went up by 28% YTD and inflation was high too, and they will print more if needed, In US, debt ceiling is something that is meant to be raised until Armageddon comes and this is not that time…but the 3 pointers you mentioned are spot on.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video

  • @HarishKeswani
    @HarishKeswani 9 місяців тому +1

    Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Appreciated!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video

  • @Priyotosh12
    @Priyotosh12 8 місяців тому +1

    Brilliant! Too good for a free content. Feeling privileged to subscribe to your channel.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful

  • @dhanyardi5942
    @dhanyardi5942 9 місяців тому +1

    Flow of money may be either way....
    But your flow of thoughts in clear direction.
    Appreciate your hard work for presentation

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

  • @saratchandraprayaga6930
    @saratchandraprayaga6930 9 місяців тому +1

    Companies are regarded as well managed if they are debt free and have good cash reserves, why govts are not bound by such rules? Does fed have no other method than qe and qt to balance cash? In 2019 how banks had empty chests? Where did their Money go-to fed due to qt? Cant put this together Pl clarify.😮

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Why govts are not bound by such rules?
      Because Nixon took the world off the Gold standard in 1971, specifically to ensure that US government is free from the bounds of all such rules that applied to them pre-1971, when money printing was linked to Gold reserves...

  • @mikoyan07
    @mikoyan07 9 місяців тому +1

    This is an excellent educational video on financial systems for us non-finance background folks. Worth saving in playlist for future reference as well. Subscribed!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words... glad you found the content useful

  • @ashwindaftary4561
    @ashwindaftary4561 9 місяців тому +1

    Hello Indranilji, I have been very much impressed by your study and technical analysis of the the World markets and Indian markets.I am more or less in complete agreement with your lovely analysis and have become your fan. 2 questions still are a puzzle for me after your analysis. first is if US fed starts cutting interest rates may be in June or Sept. as inflation and NF P have come out much higher but when they start cutting interest rates won't the funds parked in US treasury come out and deployed in an economy like India which is growing at at rate of almost 7percent this leading the markets in India go much higher ?? and as you said still there are about 400 billion dollars in the Treasury kitty there is no problem. Infact Sir I am fully invested in our markets mostly in Multicap quality stocks and will continue to hold as you said till the 3 things required for the markets to peak out and react very sharply then...
    Sir your comments and advice would be highly appreciated...

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      I agree Sir that things continue to look up for US economy and liquidity also continues to be healthy, at least for now... but sooner rather than later, believe me, things will start to roll over. And at that time, if you have a clearly defined startegy to exit based on rules-based framework like the one that I have proposed (consisting of 3 conditions), you will be able to navigate the coming market upheaval much better

  • @dongre123
    @dongre123 9 місяців тому +2

    Nice presentation even for non finance person.
    Lot of channels present assumption. Nice to see data backed presentation
    Only facts.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video

  • @RaibatChoudhury-ef4ch
    @RaibatChoudhury-ef4ch 8 місяців тому +1

    Thanks for sharing such a wonderful content Sir. I will call you a Sir because you are showing the truth and making us cautious. Truth will prevail

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video

  • @tammuben
    @tammuben 8 місяців тому +1

    Thank you for such a clear explanation. the blanks are filled 🙂. Please make a video on exit / profit booking plan.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video
      Yes, will soon be posting a video explaining our proprietary invetsment startegy, which will also cover when and how to time not just entry, but exits too

  • @macbro5903
    @macbro5903 9 місяців тому +1

    amazing content ... would love to see your future presentations too.. subscribed and waitng for your next one.. all the best.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +1

      Many thanks.... glad you liked the video
      And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel

  • @shanxutube
    @shanxutube 9 місяців тому +1

    Brilliant explanation on monetary policy, liquidity management and Fiscal policy in the USA. I hold a CFA charter and much appreciate the thoroughness of the analysis!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks for those super kind words Sir... Coming from someone with your kind of background makes it that much more special! Glad you liked the content

  • @varunohri767
    @varunohri767 9 місяців тому

    I just came across your channel today. I listened the content and subscribed the channel. I would say that the insights you share are exceptionally great and is uncommon and not available in other channels. This is “USP” of the channel i believe.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks.... glad you liked the video
      And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel

  • @rakish81
    @rakish81 9 місяців тому +1

    Sir , excellent video.. this video is enough to learn US finance system and its impact in equity markets

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video

  • @ISHUGURUNG
    @ISHUGURUNG 9 місяців тому +1

    Thank you sir for the video. It was very informative. Instead wasting my time watching useless videos, I have learned something important.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many thanks.... glad you liked the video

  • @ankeshlodha6246
    @ankeshlodha6246 9 місяців тому +1

    Master piece ... great explanation...
    Lot of love and support

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for love and support.... glad you liked the video

  • @anandjjw
    @anandjjw 8 місяців тому +1

    Liked your narrative on the importance of “Liquidity”. Indeed it was very good information, but I skipped to the next video which i awaiting to find the solution, i couldn't find any such. Is the wait to "invest in 5 years period and getting still the fd return on the worst scenario", still on ? Please do share the technique, all the stats were amazing

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks... glad you liked the video
      I will be out with the video explaining the 5-year strategy / solution we propose to our clients very soon

  • @RakesshMaalani
    @RakesshMaalani 8 місяців тому +1

    Thanks you have described very very deeply
    Very useful for taking investment decisions

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video

  • @adityagupta147
    @adityagupta147 9 місяців тому +1

    Very insightful and knowledgeable content ♥️ i am glad i came across your video, great learning. I am pretty sure your channel will blow up good, i wish you all the best :)

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

  • @rajbasu8649
    @rajbasu8649 8 місяців тому

    Thanks for being so honest in the first half of the video !Loved it dada !!
    You have my like and subscription.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Raj, many thanks for the kind words... really glad you found the content to be useful

  • @niravjani609
    @niravjani609 8 місяців тому

    After US debt ceiling, do the US govt issue bonds every month or only one time?

  • @nil0355
    @nil0355 9 місяців тому +1

    Amazing content. Already subscribed and I can see your subscriber number has started increasing exponentially!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
      Also, thanks again for subscribing to my channel

  • @dilletante4ever
    @dilletante4ever 9 місяців тому +1

    You are a great teacher! Kudos! Why is the printing of money not anchored to bullion reserves?

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому

      Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
      It's a pity that amount of money printed is NO longer linked to Gold reserves since 1971, when President Nixon abandoned the Gold standard

  • @nishantmehta
    @nishantmehta 8 місяців тому +2

    There are very few channels in india which talk about these topics. Keep posting.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful

  • @nkr1935
    @nkr1935 9 місяців тому +1

    Very detailed clear presentation of content that could be hard for many to explain. Great content please keep it coming, you are assured if support from us!!

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  9 місяців тому +1

      Many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video...

  • @phoenixrising164
    @phoenixrising164 8 місяців тому +1

    You are an amazing teacher .. I have subscribed !

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha  8 місяців тому

      Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video
      Thanks more so for subscribing to my channel

  • @RoyalRajwadaPhotography
    @RoyalRajwadaPhotography 7 місяців тому +1

    amazing video very helpful, thank you sir.