No Recession In Earnings Or In Disinverting Yield Curve
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- Опубліковано 10 вер 2024
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Corporate earnings have never been higher, suggesting that employment should continue to grow as profitable companies expand their payrolls. Today, Ed and Eric put the prospect of a recession into perspective with their “Credit Crisis Cycle.” Ed notes that S&P 500 companies’ record-high forward earnings is a bullish indicator for the stock price index. The S&P 500 forward profit margin is near its record high and expected to hit new highs in the productivity growth boom we project, our Roaring 2020s scenario. … Eric explains why this time, a disinverting yield curve is not signaling an imminent recession as it has in the past. Other relied upon recession indicators are flashing false signals as well.
Appreciate your insights - excellent!
Good to see you and Eric again Ed. I missed your thoughts after the unemployment numbers were released. I still remain positive on the economy and markets. I share your thoughts about geo-political risks.
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thanks guys... though I think energy is oversupplied for some time
They’re relying on profit margins improvements. From where will these come?
the untold truth is the reduction in corporate taxes (TCGA), coupled with deregulation have unleashed the productivity boom, same what happened to unleash the roaring 2020's. same scenario repeating itself
Team Yoyo!
Hi Ed/Eric
I am a retired first lean leveraged corporate lender with an MBA and do not think the disinversion of yields has to cause a recession as I think you agree as well. I think it is part of normalization. I would rather lend short not
Long term in terms of business and yield risk. I am looking forward to a .25% drop in yields in Sept. I agree with you that only 1 reduction is needed in 2024.
Thank you so much for always providing great videos
This would be the first time in history that an uninverting yield curve is not followed by a recession. What is different?
This time we have the power of amnesia! Very potent stuff.
Would it actually be a first. Figure 12 shows an uninversion (the squiggly line becomes positive again) in the late 90s that didn’t have a recession associated with it.
But I suppose that figure shows where 10 year yield uninverts relative to fed funds rate. Are you referring to 10 year yield uninverting relative instead to the two year? What is your source for that alternative data
That's literally the topic of the entire 32 minute video
@@SigFigNewton yes thats true but look at unemployment in that time... no rising trend then. unemployment curve with lowering rates and uninverting curve are what really make the likelihood of a soft landing below 1%.
"This time is different"
When in the last 15 years have we not had a bull market?
If the economy is slowing which based on earnings, unemployment, basically flat retail sales why is the Fed funds rate so high? Credit delinquencies are up too. Housing affordability is easing ever so slightly but still, not sufficient to grow that area of the market based on home builder survey.
Ed Yardeni has been doing great in his predictions
I also follow Michael Howell
At least you have a pointer and a good one. Charts not explained very well. It would better to show blown up sections of the charts.
Thanks for the pupper glimpse! Cute.
Eric is a rockstar
yeah Elvis Costello or Donny Iris
Have the doom-sayers served your portfolio well? A question worth asking. Attempting to time the market will cost you in the long run. Mr Lynch and whatnot.
MAX!
Oof. Maybe this time its different. The cursed saying. Were all doooooooomed!!!
"They can claim they were right after all...several years after they began anticipating a recession" 😂 Memiores of a bear
this analysis is bull coddling