It’s been a few tiring days of compiling and making sense of the data collected. Apologies for any mistakes that I’ve made, as I do these videos completely on my own, so some human error might slip in. That being said, I’d like to address the main (and good) counterargument/criticism of this study, which is the fact that we *should* be looking at a scenario where 1 person is trying to slip, and the other is trying to not slip. And yes, I agree, in an ideal world, that would be the best way I could steel man the opposing viewpoint. BUT for this type of secondary data sampling, we must be careful not to insert assumptions into our study. It is very difficult and bad statistical practice to insert interpretation of intent on the part of the athletes, which is why I also adjusted the data to not include *agreed* strap matches, as those matches had clear intent involved. In doing so, I kept the dataset as “pure” as possible for a fair statistical analysis. Alrighty, time for bed now. Goodnight, you beasts 👊
it doesn't matter whether both parties knew beforehand that their opponent wanted a strap because this statistics is mainly important for those pullers who wanna know how often they will fail to go to straps when they want to. Hence, those cases should have been taken into account. It would make a huge difference, if you added 12% to the latest EvW event you would get a very high number. Also it would be interesting to see how often armwrestlers fail to slip. For example when samushia lost 2 rounds while trying to slip. I think devon meant, that if you want to get into straps, you will in 80-90% of your matches, so it would be interesting if you only counted matches in which at least one side demonstrated that they wanted to get into straps
from my experience a LOT of matches at waf tournaments here in italy are flash without straps / hook battles. plus me, flopping like a madman and always ending up in the straps
Thanks Martino! A big part of this arm wrestling education series is unpacking some of the commonly-held sayings/beliefs in the game and showing what the reality is!
I never did as well, until I started competing regularly at a high level and found myself getting clamped down or fouling out whenever my opponent didn't want me slipping. It's a bad mentality to have to assume you can get the strap easily.
Hahhaa, I hope it is a good starting point for discussions! Admittedly, there are still MANY good points that others can critique this on. An example of one such counterargument being: Only matches that involve someone who wants to slip and another who doesn’t want to slip should be included However, most of these counterarguments require ASSUMING intent from one or both armwrestlers, which is bad statistical practice for this type of post-hoc data collection.
Great analysis! The higher competition level we see (e.g. East vs West) the likelihood of seeing the strap applied (athletes are equal in strength) is atleast 50%. If we watch some small regional tournament we see that most matches usually last a few seconds (no strap needed). Also, 01:28 😭😭
I went back and did this for EvW 13, which was just 3 weeks ago on July 6th. Taking out rounds where the strap was agreed on (of which there were 6) ... Total Rounds = 50 Strap Matches = 26 (52%) Counting the rounds with strap agreed on: 56 Total - 32 Strap Rds - 57.14% IMO the most interesting stat, is that in 11 of the 15 match ups ... either all rounds went to the strap, or none of them did. Only in 4 of the 15 were some rounds strap, some not. In 6 of those 11, all rounds went to straps, obviously in the remaining 5 -- none did. It seems to be pretty well even as far as strap-no straps goes.
not to mention, most armwrestling that occurs is on a local level where slips to straps are probably much more rare than the number 36% from WAF (in my experience)
Very interesting video Greg! I prefer oldschool without strap pulling but hey its just me. Nowadays everyone relies on strap. PS its all fun and games until u try to slip against someone with grip strength C.O.C 2 or greater.
I would argue that the THREAT of the strap is almost as important as the strap itself. I was doing practice pulls with this guy off of ready go and out of straps he totally beats me and in straps I destroy him. Once I slipped one time, and took him to straps, and he had to focus on not letting me slip, I was able to beat him out of straps too because he had to hold onto me. So even though if it had been a super match, probably only 50-60% of rounds with us would go to straps, the fact that I could get to straps and win dictated how everything in the match went because he had to hold on outside of straps.
I think from a certain viewpoint, you are certainly right. But for the sake of this analysis, I viewed the act of agreement as a confounder as it came with the big assumption that both athletes wanted to make it known that they wanted the strap (which is an outlier scenario; 3.5% of matches at WAF and 12.2% of matches at EvW). So, after removing all of those + the laydowns, injuries, agreed hooks, etc., what's left is a more "pure" dataset, where both pullers are assumed to not know the intentions of the other arm wrestler. Still, I appreciate you bringing up a fair point. Although, EVEN when they are not removed, the percentages for each event don't change by more than a few percentage points, which still proves the overall point of the video.
My guess when I started watching this video was 45%! I though East vs West would be even higher than it was though. Thanks for doing all the research / analytics for us!!!
Good conclusion but realizing there is often hook wars where they dont bother with the strap and flashes where one is overpowered then youre left with matches where it really matters and those are usually going straps
Ultimately, what we'd ideally like to test is the scenario where 1 person wants to slip and another wants to hold on. However, we can't gather that kind of information from a secondary date collection study like this one. Unfortunately, I don't have the resources to conduct a primary study for that result.
good work brother since you like facts, i wouldnt incorporate devons statement in the beginning "all slips go into straps" since your topic is not much about slipping but straps itself allthough, nice data work :)
One counterargument that you did not address is that just from a math perspective most matches in which there is not an agreed to strap the first round functions as both guys figuring out if they want a strap or not against the opponent. Therefore adding a round that's out of straps to a match that for the next several rounds may go to the strap. Also, it isn't totally fair to take out the agreed to strap. The reason that happens is that there's usually at least one explosive toproller and both guys know they're going to waste energy for a match that will inevitably slip. So you're keeping in rounds of matches that are more likely to not slip and removing rounds that both athletes agree are likely to slip. I don't think the number would be 90% but I think it'd be around 50-60% under the all slips go to straps rule. The other thing to consider is that when people say "90% of matches go to strap" that's sorta with the understanding that modern arm wrestling usually has at least 1 toproller. If the two guys are hook pullers nobody thinks that match is likely to slip. Im not saying that the statement is accurate on the whole, but what people actually mean is that if at least one puller is a toproller, and under the common ruleset that all slips go to straps, then more likely than not that supermatch will END UP in a strap.
I agree, if I were to want to steel man the opposing view even more, I'd run the experiment where it's side A trying to slip and side B trying to prevent it, and see how often side A is succesful. Unfortunately, I don't have the resources to do that, and trying to infer intent through secondary data is bad statistical practice. Hence, I went with this bare bones approach. My reasoning behind removing the "agreed straps" was part of this attempt to remove the assumption of intent and to keep the data as "pure" as possible. Whether this was right or not, I'm not sure. But the numbers even if I didn't remove the agreed straps still only differ by 3-5%. Also, the main thing this video was aiming to do is to counter the statement that's pushed by Devon as laid out in 9:04 where he asserts that regardless of style, at least 1 person will want to try to bail to straps, hence "all matches go to straps," and that this is pretty much a guaranteed outcome. We can see that no matter how you slice the data, it is a categorically false statement.
How about the probability of a close match going to the straps ? When someone is way stronger than his opponent then yes it has lower possibilities of going to the straps. But in my humble opinion when a match is close and there is at least one toproller in the equation, then the probabilities of a slip going to straps is wayyyy higher.
We can filter the data to only include matches with at least 1 toproller, but the percentage would still be far from 90+%. However, that would also require assuming someone was gonna toproll and inserting that kind of assumption into a statistical analysis is not good practice
Strap matches: 55kg: Right 33%; left 77% 60kg: Right 28%; left 29% 65kg: Right 22%; left 38% ... 100kg: Right 44%; left 26% 110kg: Right 41%; left 36% +110kg: Right 42%; left 21% Overall, not really much significant differences across weight classes
He was memeing/using hyperbole; just another way for him to say that all/almost all matches go to straps. And the point of this video was to refute that claim that he/Devon and many other people preach.
Do you think there might be a bias regarding if a match goes to strap or not depending on the weight category? I have a felling the smaller guys hook a lot more often then the guys in the upper weight categories, and almost no superheavyweight top athletes has the hook as their main weapon, specifically on the right arm. If that's the case, we might get a distorted notion on the topic since the most watched matches generally are superheavyweight and heavyweight matches.
Strap matches: 55kg: Right 33%; left 77% 60kg: Right 28%; left 29% 65kg: Right 22%; left 38% ... 100kg: Right 44%; left 26% 110kg: Right 41%; left 36% +110kg: Right 42%; left 21% Overall, not really much significant differences across weight classes
top roller vs top roller matches are more likely to go to straps, flop wrist guys want the straps so they slip. Hook matches don't go to strap that often. Strap match depends on various factors how much the players want the strap, grip strength of the players, style and speed of the players and refs.
I was gonna say that Janis and Coach Ray said that almost all matches go to strap IN pro Armwrestling...Although the percentage of strap matches is higher, that's still not true. Thanks for the facts
Yes, in pro matches, especially with the looser rules and generally higher experience levels, more matches can be forced to the strap. *But* it is still important to practice for it, as we have clearly seen matches where armwrestlers have been forced to stay OUT of the strap and lost because of it.
Yup, if you were to bet on a random match, those would be reasonable odds! But, if you're going into a match with the intent to slip, then that changes the probabilities depending on your ability to slip and your opponent's ability to hold on.
Devon’s statement is different from Coach Ray’s statement, at the beginning of the video. Devon says all slips go to straps. Coach Ray says all majority of matches go to straps. Those are different sets of statistics. All matches, versus all matches that contain slips.
Respect for putting together these stats. However, they're not the relevant ones. The relevant question is: how often did someone want to go to straps but couldn't and this was the main reason he lost? (I.e. he would win in straps but can't get there) Vitaly has actually shown how not letting the opponent slip can win you matches, but in my mind he is rather an exception to the rule. Your conclusion is still correct though, one needs to practice how to slip... But devons main point is that (at least for lax rule systems) you CAN slip if you train it (and your opponent as well) and therefore you should mostly practice pulling in the strap (except for hook vs hook)
I’ll try to slice the data for you, but it’s hard to judge *intent* The closest thing we can get is filtering for all toproll V toproll matches, but even then, it’s not good statistical practice. I’ll have to do that after getting a nice long sleep though 😵💫😴
@@EastsideArmWrestling yeah my "question" can't be answered statistically because we also don't know when someone knew he couldn't slip from the beginning and didn't even try, and we don't know when someone didn't slip but would've lost regardless. I was just pointing out that was the stats we would actually need
I mean, it depend on what kind of puller you are. All devons matches go to strap because hes a toproller, he doesnt want to hold on to people at all. One rare match he actually held on was his latest match with michael todd, but then todd slipped so it was a strap match either way. Short armed pullers usually hook without straps, and there are more short pullers than tall pullers.
I understand why you say that brother, but refer to 9:02 where he is pushing the idea that no matter what, "you will go to straps anyway" This is the wrong idea to tell the audience.
novices watch Devon and go with it. its just bad advice. its very nuanced to understand when its safe to slip and when your opponent will try to prevent you doing it, which can be a quick tournament round loss.
Greg and everyone yo extremely fun fact: The lady in that meme with the equations and formulas floating meme is actually an arm wrestler who I've seen memed at least twice her name is Chris De Souza! Crazy right??
I mean obviously Few Hook vs Hook Matches go to Straps and Most toproll vs toproll ones have to( unless exploding Hand ) So i think whats meant by 90% of Matches go to Straps is more so 90% can Go to Straps If one Person chooses to prefer straps. Which is ofc mainly relevant in any Hook vs toproll matchup so thats what really matters. Without this context its Not so useful to Look at Numbers imo
A toproller doesn't necessarily *want* to go to a strap, nor does a hooker necessarily *want* to not strap. Intent is something that can't be assumed from secondary data collection. This is just purely looking at the numbers and what has happened.
If You want to go to straps.You must earn it. Goingo auto straps for me its take away part of the game. Even if i am which often cannot hold the grip :P
9:24 That's exactly how it goes for me though, I have no problem AT ALL slipping (though my hability to deny someone getting to the straps is also non existent). Probably one of the very few advantages of having a btchass hand, now that I think about it. Lol.
At the individual level, it's highly variable, and thankfully for you, you have to ability to force the strap without issue. But from my experience, there is a significant amount of people who don't have that ability and will lose out matches because of it. It's not a healthy mindset that Devon/Ray is preaching to the mass audience.
@@EastsideArmWrestling Maybe it's the same way with them and they automatically think it's the same for everyone? To me is very weird to even begin to think slipping would be a problem for some, and I can't even remember many cases where that was a big factor in the outcome of high level supermatch outside of Dave vs Vitaly and Levan (funnily enough, 2 examples of guys is an incredible hand vs a guy who's very bad at slipping [Dave Chaffe]), but that might be selective memory
But have you considered that the matches that don't go to straps have been so dominant in strength regard that the strap wouldn't have changed anything so they just decided to save time
Counting only meaningful rounds that were not for showboating that's what we get: Devon vs Denis 2/3 (on round 2 devon flash pinned denis) John Brzenk vs Sasho Andreev 3/3 Todd Hutchings vs Kydyrgali Ongarbaev 3/3 Georgi Tsvetkov vs Zaur Paizulaev 3/3 Egle Vaitkute vs Sarah Backman 2/2 (third round Eglė was way too strong for the rest of the rounds) Irakli Zirakashvili vs Rustam Babaiev 5/5 Davit Samushia vs Abdulmanaf 0/2 (after the first 2 matches the strength difference was way too big, also it's a hook match from both of the pullers) Ivan Matyushenko vs Kamil Jablonski 0/3 (Kamil tried to slip but couldn't, in straps, Kamil would have won) Artem Taynov vs Sasho Andreev 3/3 (they pulled one more, but it showboating and didn't matter since Artem wasn't fully trying in the 4th round) Frank Lamparelli vs Matt Mask 4/4 Fia Reisek vs Rosa Maria Acosta 1/3 (they pulled one more, but there was a strength difference) So the total amount of meaningful rounds were 34 of which 26 were in straps, making it 76.3% of the matches that went to straps, out of which only 6 rounds were where one of the pullers wanted the strap but couldn't get and 2 rounds where they didn't want straps at all. So the adjusted percentage is 26/32 making it 81.3% of strap matches.
And that proves my point! With all the data adjusted in favor of the counterargument as possible, it still only tops out at 81%, and that is for pretty much the most experienced people in the world with a laxed ruleset! Ray and Devon are preaching this to their mass audience who are likely much lower in experience and are likely going to tournaments with a stricter ruleset. The information they push is harmful to the general audience.
Haha, you are definitely one of the toughest armwrestlers to contain. Interestingly enough, even a serial slipper like Matt mask has had a match where he didn't go to strap even once - see Matt Mask vs Wagner Bortolato
I don't think he has malicious intent, I just believe he only speaks from his own experience and has a narrow view of this topic. If I were Devon Larratt, I'd think getting to straps is easy too. But sadly, that's not the reality for a good chunk of his audience.
@@EastsideArmWrestling makes sense! I was at the seminar shown in this video, I was just joking 🤣 See being in the 155lb class, I practice with mostly guys much heavier than me, and it's easy to slip out of their big hands with my skinny fingers. I'm caught off guard when I try to slip with someone in my weight class and they can actually grip my thumb/fingers hard enough to prevent me from slipping!
Nah. If both are on similar level, if one wants to slip, they will slip. Tournament is not really relevant because first of all, not everyone is on the same level, second of all, not everyone want to slip. Devon is right, most of matches will be in the strap because when they're on your leve, they want to slip, and you decide to hold on to them outside of the strap, you will either get pinned or gas your hand and end up in the strap anyway.
This is a categorically false statement. I have personally experienced it multiple times where I was pinned/fouled out by an opponent because I couldn't slip and get to the strap (who I would otherwise win if I did get to straps). It is a dangerous falsehood being spread by Devon and Ray to inexperienced people who haven't seen it happen themselves enough times to know the reality is much different.
@@EastsideArmWrestling " key word " : on similar level. If you can't slip , it's either that you're not on their level or you don't know how to slip. I've been pulling for years at 80kgs, not a single one occasion that i failed to slip in my weight class. There're a few cases that i punched up above my weight class and pulled those 110+ kg guys with way bigger and thicker hands that i had some trouble slipping, so no Devon is not wrong.
@@meitwasnt6705 You have a BIG misunderstanding here. I beat those people very easily in straps, but outside of straps they have a better chance of beating me. It’s all about your strengths and weaknesses. If it were as simple as “all matches go to straps” then it would take an entire part of the game out of the equation, and those people would be hugely disadvantaged against me. And even though having an easy access to strap will benefit me greatly, I still am not a supporter of moving the game to purely strap arm wrestling. Just because you have an easy time going to straps doesn’t mean that other people do. It’s a skill, like any other, and for the majority of people it has to be learned. Not everyone has the same hand size/shape/strength. It’s easier for some and harder for others. Devon is absolutely wrong. Just because he can force a strap easily, doesn’t mean a vast portion of his audience can. He’s perpetuating a dangerous falsehood, and I’m here to call him, and anyone else who say so, out on it.
@@EastsideArmWrestling lol no. Those who can't slip are just too stubborn or don't know how to pull. If you're a outside puller, most of your match should and would be in a strap unless someone dumb enough to hold on to you, the you'd have the easiest toproll of your life. Fyi, this is not just Devon, Travis talked about this, John talked about this, matt mass talked about this, Engin talked about this. Once you learn how to properly toproll, and not holding on. You will slip. I have a hard time believing you can beat those in the strap easily but you can't slip from them. If that's the case the you don't know what you're doing
@@meitwasnt6705 You’re speaking from an extremely close-minded position and it shows your lack of experience. There *ARE* people out there who can and will prevent their opponent from slipping. Look at some of the rounds of Vitaly vs Ermes for example. Ermes fouled out so many times trying to bail from Vitaly. Again, just because *YOU* have it easy, doesn’t mean others have it easy too. It would be like me telling people “oh you can’t just do 60kg backpressure because you don’t know how to do it” It’s not a matter of being stubborn or not. In those case I obviously wanted to slip. It’s just that my opponents’ ability to hold on was better. Slipping is a skill that has to be trained. And even then, holding on is another skill that can be trained as well. If your opponent’s ability to hold on is better than your ability to slip, then you can’t slip. Plain and simple. Gain some experience before speaking in such absolutes.
It’s been a few tiring days of compiling and making sense of the data collected. Apologies for any mistakes that I’ve made, as I do these videos completely on my own, so some human error might slip in.
That being said, I’d like to address the main (and good) counterargument/criticism of this study, which is the fact that we *should* be looking at a scenario where 1 person is trying to slip, and the other is trying to not slip.
And yes, I agree, in an ideal world, that would be the best way I could steel man the opposing viewpoint. BUT for this type of secondary data sampling, we must be careful not to insert assumptions into our study.
It is very difficult and bad statistical practice to insert interpretation of intent on the part of the athletes, which is why I also adjusted the data to not include *agreed* strap matches, as those matches had clear intent involved.
In doing so, I kept the dataset as “pure” as possible for a fair statistical analysis.
Alrighty, time for bed now. Goodnight, you beasts 👊
it doesn't matter whether both parties knew beforehand that their opponent wanted a strap because this statistics is mainly important for those pullers who wanna know how often they will fail to go to straps when they want to. Hence, those cases should have been taken into account. It would make a huge difference, if you added 12% to the latest EvW event you would get a very high number.
Also it would be interesting to see how often armwrestlers fail to slip. For example when samushia lost 2 rounds while trying to slip.
I think devon meant, that if you want to get into straps, you will in 80-90% of your matches, so it would be interesting if you only counted matches in which at least one side demonstrated that they wanted to get into straps
Let's appreciate Greg going through hours of videos to produce this statistics-backed videos for us. All in the name of science.
🫡🫡 armwrestling mythbusters
Slipping properly takes skill, would love to hear your insights on that perhaps in a future video
Lol
Just moisturize before the match
Swap chalk with baby powder.
Vaseline Like Jayson Vale
Haha, interestingly enough, WAF does have a rule that bans application of things other than chalk
Or apply your own sweat directly in your opponents hand, but that's a more advanced technique
from my experience a LOT of matches at waf tournaments here in italy are flash without straps / hook battles.
plus me, flopping like a madman and always ending up in the straps
It must be great when some foolist toproller tries to hold on to you outside straps after flopping your wrist and you still get a pin 🤣
quality video Greg! Thanks for showing real statistics and proving / disproving myths
Thanks Martino! A big part of this arm wrestling education series is unpacking some of the commonly-held sayings/beliefs in the game and showing what the reality is!
Very good insight, never really questioned the people saying 90 percent
I never did as well, until I started competing regularly at a high level and found myself getting clamped down or fouling out whenever my opponent didn't want me slipping. It's a bad mentality to have to assume you can get the strap easily.
Doing god's work really.
This study of yours is gonna be referenced in so many online comment fights now haha.
Hahhaa, I hope it is a good starting point for discussions!
Admittedly, there are still MANY good points that others can critique this on. An example of one such counterargument being:
Only matches that involve someone who wants to slip and another who doesn’t want to slip should be included
However, most of these counterarguments require ASSUMING intent from one or both armwrestlers, which is bad statistical practice for this type of post-hoc data collection.
Where did "Coach Ray" get his "96%" figure from? Or was he simply talking out of his...
Great analysis! The higher competition level we see (e.g. East vs West) the likelihood of seeing the strap applied (athletes are equal in strength) is atleast 50%. If we watch some small regional tournament we see that most matches usually last a few seconds (no strap needed).
Also, 01:28 😭😭
Exactly. In today’s pro leagues most go to strap.
@Dmgolfer22 the thing is that I find "Most" an overstatement. Even without removing the agreed straps, the data I have compiled tops out at around 65%
@@EastsideArmWrestling How is calling 65% of matches "most matches" an overstatement lol
@@ExsoLam “most” as a heuristic feels akin to saying 80% or 90%. 65% doesn’t feel like “most”, semantically speaking
I went back and did this for EvW 13, which was just 3 weeks ago on July 6th.
Taking out rounds where the strap was agreed on (of which there were 6) ...
Total Rounds = 50
Strap Matches = 26 (52%)
Counting the rounds with strap agreed on:
56 Total - 32 Strap Rds - 57.14%
IMO the most interesting stat, is that in 11 of the 15 match ups ... either all rounds went to the strap, or none of them did. Only in 4 of the 15 were some rounds strap, some not.
In 6 of those 11, all rounds went to straps, obviously in the remaining 5 -- none did.
It seems to be pretty well even as far as strap-no straps goes.
Thanks for compiling the extra data man! Seems like it still lines up with what I think of this topic
not to mention, most armwrestling that occurs is on a local level where slips to straps are probably much more rare than the number 36% from WAF (in my experience)
I'm sure it varies from league to league (hence me using data from both WAF and EvW), but at any rate, the general numbers are still way below 90+%
Yeah, speaking from experience, getting into the strap AND also not losing through slip in losing position in waf is incredibly difficult
100% man. It is a skill like any other that has to be learned and practiced.
Newer guys will learn that very quickly once they start to compete.
Very interesting video Greg!
I prefer oldschool without strap pulling but hey its just me.
Nowadays everyone relies on strap.
PS its all fun and games until u try to slip against someone with grip strength C.O.C 2 or greater.
C.O.C 2.5 grip here and I still can't hold on for sh*t 🤣🥲
Thanks for watching, and I appreciate your take on the old-school style!
I would argue that the THREAT of the strap is almost as important as the strap itself. I was doing practice pulls with this guy off of ready go and out of straps he totally beats me and in straps I destroy him. Once I slipped one time, and took him to straps, and he had to focus on not letting me slip, I was able to beat him out of straps too because he had to hold onto me. So even though if it had been a super match, probably only 50-60% of rounds with us would go to straps, the fact that I could get to straps and win dictated how everything in the match went because he had to hold on outside of straps.
Very good insight. I'd conjecture that the ability to *prevent* straps is about as important as the ability to *get to* the straps
I think removing matches that agree to go to strap doesn't make sense at all. If they didn't do that, they would simply go to straps... but good video
I think from a certain viewpoint, you are certainly right. But for the sake of this analysis, I viewed the act of agreement as a confounder as it came with the big assumption that both athletes wanted to make it known that they wanted the strap (which is an outlier scenario; 3.5% of matches at WAF and 12.2% of matches at EvW).
So, after removing all of those + the laydowns, injuries, agreed hooks, etc., what's left is a more "pure" dataset, where both pullers are assumed to not know the intentions of the other arm wrestler.
Still, I appreciate you bringing up a fair point. Although, EVEN when they are not removed, the percentages for each event don't change by more than a few percentage points, which still proves the overall point of the video.
My guess when I started watching this video was 45%! I though East vs West would be even higher than it was though. Thanks for doing all the research / analytics for us!!!
Thanks Josh! Turns out, you still have to EARN the strap.
Good conclusion but realizing there is often hook wars where they dont bother with the strap and flashes where one is overpowered then youre left with matches where it really matters and those are usually going straps
Ultimately, what we'd ideally like to test is the scenario where 1 person wants to slip and another wants to hold on.
However, we can't gather that kind of information from a secondary date collection study like this one.
Unfortunately, I don't have the resources to conduct a primary study for that result.
good work brother
since you like facts, i wouldnt incorporate devons statement in the beginning "all slips go into straps" since your topic is not much about slipping but straps itself
allthough, nice data work :)
I understand why you say that brother, but refer to 9:02 where he is pushing the idea that no matter what, "you will go to straps anyway"
One counterargument that you did not address is that just from a math perspective most matches in which there is not an agreed to strap the first round functions as both guys figuring out if they want a strap or not against the opponent. Therefore adding a round that's out of straps to a match that for the next several rounds may go to the strap. Also, it isn't totally fair to take out the agreed to strap. The reason that happens is that there's usually at least one explosive toproller and both guys know they're going to waste energy for a match that will inevitably slip. So you're keeping in rounds of matches that are more likely to not slip and removing rounds that both athletes agree are likely to slip. I don't think the number would be 90% but I think it'd be around 50-60% under the all slips go to straps rule. The other thing to consider is that when people say "90% of matches go to strap" that's sorta with the understanding that modern arm wrestling usually has at least 1 toproller. If the two guys are hook pullers nobody thinks that match is likely to slip. Im not saying that the statement is accurate on the whole, but what people actually mean is that if at least one puller is a toproller, and under the common ruleset that all slips go to straps, then more likely than not that supermatch will END UP in a strap.
I do 100% agree that slipping is way more difficult for amateurs than the pro's make it look and working on legal slips is definitely important
I agree, if I were to want to steel man the opposing view even more, I'd run the experiment where it's side A trying to slip and side B trying to prevent it, and see how often side A is succesful.
Unfortunately, I don't have the resources to do that, and trying to infer intent through secondary data is bad statistical practice. Hence, I went with this bare bones approach.
My reasoning behind removing the "agreed straps" was part of this attempt to remove the assumption of intent and to keep the data as "pure" as possible. Whether this was right or not, I'm not sure. But the numbers even if I didn't remove the agreed straps still only differ by 3-5%.
Also, the main thing this video was aiming to do is to counter the statement that's pushed by Devon as laid out in 9:04 where he asserts that regardless of style, at least 1 person will want to try to bail to straps, hence "all matches go to straps," and that this is pretty much a guaranteed outcome.
We can see that no matter how you slice the data, it is a categorically false statement.
How about the probability of a close match going to the straps ? When someone is way stronger than his opponent then yes it has lower possibilities of going to the straps. But in my humble opinion when a match is close and there is at least one toproller in the equation, then the probabilities of a slip going to straps is wayyyy higher.
We can filter the data to only include matches with at least 1 toproller, but the percentage would still be far from 90+%.
However, that would also require assuming someone was gonna toproll and inserting that kind of assumption into a statistical analysis is not good practice
@@EastsideArmWrestling Yes definitely I think 90% is way too much anyway
One of the best armwrestling channels on UA-cam, great job man!
Thanks so much for your encouraging words, beast!
GREAT VIDEO BROTHER!! Absolutely right!! Great job. 💪💪💥💥
Thanks, Apollo! We have to get rid of this mindset!
The statistics should compare instances when someone couldn't get to the strap when desired, versus when they could.
Ideally you'd have an experiment for just that happening because it's impossible to infer intent accurately from secondary data.
Would be interesting to see how this breaks down for weight classes.
Strap matches:
55kg: Right 33%; left 77%
60kg: Right 28%; left 29%
65kg: Right 22%; left 38%
...
100kg: Right 44%; left 26%
110kg: Right 41%; left 36%
+110kg: Right 42%; left 21%
Overall, not really much significant differences across weight classes
I wonder where Ray got that percentage from
He was memeing/using hyperbole; just another way for him to say that all/almost all matches go to straps. And the point of this video was to refute that claim that he/Devon and many other people preach.
Gonna bookmark the hell out of this! Great video
Haha, good to send someone if they every try to say otherwise. Thanks man!
Do you think there might be a bias regarding if a match goes to strap or not depending on the weight category? I have a felling the smaller guys hook a lot more often then the guys in the upper weight categories, and almost no superheavyweight top athletes has the hook as their main weapon, specifically on the right arm. If that's the case, we might get a distorted notion on the topic since the most watched matches generally are superheavyweight and heavyweight matches.
Strap matches:
55kg: Right 33%; left 77%
60kg: Right 28%; left 29%
65kg: Right 22%; left 38%
...
100kg: Right 44%; left 26%
110kg: Right 41%; left 36%
+110kg: Right 42%; left 21%
Overall, not really much significant differences across weight classes
Thank you for your time to make this video ❤
Thanks aleksander, it was a lot of work to get the data, but happy to put it out there for reference
You’re a blessing to the community. Thanks for the always informative videos 🙏💪
You are a blessing to me too. I'm grateful for your support.
Very interesting topic! Love this more technical analytic videos.
Thanks man! Though I usually make opinion pieces, these evidence-based videos are also definitely interesting to work on!
About 95% of my matches goes to strap. Only when its a izi win , it does not. So I prioritize training in straps.
Whatever works best for you 👍
3:50 that is the biggest problem of WAF, i wouldn't compete there even if i could. 👥️
@@Bapiten-hy3lk 👍 respect your opinion
top roller vs top roller matches are more likely to go to straps, flop wrist guys want the straps so they slip. Hook matches don't go to strap that often. Strap match depends on various factors how much the players want the strap, grip strength of the players, style and speed of the players and refs.
Yes
I was gonna say that Janis and Coach Ray said that almost all matches go to strap IN pro Armwrestling...Although the percentage of strap matches is higher, that's still not true. Thanks for the facts
Yes, in pro matches, especially with the looser rules and generally higher experience levels, more matches can be forced to the strap.
*But* it is still important to practice for it, as we have clearly seen matches where armwrestlers have been forced to stay OUT of the strap and lost because of it.
Great video. So looks like half the time we can expect straps 👍
Yup, if you were to bet on a random match, those would be reasonable odds!
But, if you're going into a match with the intent to slip, then that changes the probabilities depending on your ability to slip and your opponent's ability to hold on.
In professional arm wrestling leagues most matches go to strap. Amateur or local/state tournaments most do not it seems.
Seems like even in EvW, the percentage tops out at 60+%
Almost all of my matches go to straps too!
Me too, I'm a primarily strap puller, but I don't go into a match assuming that I'll get it.
Devon’s statement is different from Coach Ray’s statement, at the beginning of the video. Devon says all slips go to straps. Coach Ray says all majority of matches go to straps. Those are different sets of statistics. All matches, versus all matches that contain slips.
Refer to 9:04, he elaborates on what he really means from his statement - that "all" matches go to straps
Not even 50% if you include small state tournaments
Has this been your observation so far?
@@EastsideArmWrestling Yes, especially that adrenaline is pumping and people try and flash pin without too much thought.
Great analysis mate
Cheers man, it was hard work, so I'm glad you enjoyed it
Yep! In practice I don’t hold on , but in tournaments I often gain advantages or win matches because people make mistakes trying to slip
Exactly! I've seen countless matches where guys who don't know or aren't good at slipping get clamped down or fouled out because of it
Respect for putting together these stats. However, they're not the relevant ones. The relevant question is: how often did someone want to go to straps but couldn't and this was the main reason he lost? (I.e. he would win in straps but can't get there)
Vitaly has actually shown how not letting the opponent slip can win you matches, but in my mind he is rather an exception to the rule.
Your conclusion is still correct though, one needs to practice how to slip...
But devons main point is that (at least for lax rule systems) you CAN slip if you train it (and your opponent as well) and therefore you should mostly practice pulling in the strap (except for hook vs hook)
I’ll try to slice the data for you, but it’s hard to judge *intent*
The closest thing we can get is filtering for all toproll V toproll matches, but even then, it’s not good statistical practice.
I’ll have to do that after getting a nice long sleep though 😵💫😴
@@EastsideArmWrestling yeah my "question" can't be answered statistically because we also don't know when someone knew he couldn't slip from the beginning and didn't even try, and we don't know when someone didn't slip but would've lost regardless.
I was just pointing out that was the stats we would actually need
I mean, it depend on what kind of puller you are. All devons matches go to strap because hes a toproller, he doesnt want to hold on to people at all. One rare match he actually held on was his latest match with michael todd, but then todd slipped so it was a strap match either way. Short armed pullers usually hook without straps, and there are more short pullers than tall pullers.
I understand why you say that brother, but refer to 9:02 where he is pushing the idea that no matter what, "you will go to straps anyway"
This is the wrong idea to tell the audience.
Lots of matches I see in the US, and it seems most matches are outside the strap
That’s a cool observation! Looks like there are more non-strappers out there
novices watch Devon and go with it. its just bad advice. its very nuanced to understand when its safe to slip and when your opponent will try to prevent you doing it, which can be a quick tournament round loss.
Exactly! I'm glad you understand it man
Great stuff as always
Appreciate your continued support, my friend
How about a video of your insights how to slip better.
I am still a student myself, as I do not feel I have mastered the skill yet, that's why I linked videos to others teaching it instead
Greg and everyone yo extremely fun fact: The lady in that meme with the equations and formulas floating meme is actually an arm wrestler who I've seen memed at least twice her name is Chris De Souza! Crazy right??
LOL that's pretty cool to know
oh my god..... the thumbnail just hit me...
here I am!
The man who doesn't give a sh*t about strap!
We need people like this and Todd Hutchings to actually do the mathematics
:') sadly, so much time is needed to gather the data
10:13 well, it is easy to get to straps if they can't foul you...
Hahaha, and here I wonder why some people keep pushing the agenda to make "all slips go to strap"
I mean obviously Few Hook vs Hook Matches go to Straps and Most toproll vs toproll ones have to( unless exploding Hand )
So i think whats meant by 90% of Matches go to Straps is more so 90% can Go to Straps If one Person chooses to prefer straps.
Which is ofc mainly relevant in any Hook vs toproll matchup so thats what really matters.
Without this context its Not so useful to Look at Numbers imo
A toproller doesn't necessarily *want* to go to a strap, nor does a hooker necessarily *want* to not strap.
Intent is something that can't be assumed from secondary data collection.
This is just purely looking at the numbers and what has happened.
I wish i can win my matches so easily without straps, i always have to be a slippery dude and get the strap
Hahaha, you must have a solid hand my friend
If You want to go to straps.You must earn it. Goingo auto straps for me its take away part of the game. Even if i am which often cannot hold the grip :P
I agree with you 100% my friend, even though for me, I always want strap, but I believe getting to strap is also part of the game
9:24 That's exactly how it goes for me though, I have no problem AT ALL slipping (though my hability to deny someone getting to the straps is also non existent). Probably one of the very few advantages of having a btchass hand, now that I think about it. Lol.
At the individual level, it's highly variable, and thankfully for you, you have to ability to force the strap without issue.
But from my experience, there is a significant amount of people who don't have that ability and will lose out matches because of it. It's not a healthy mindset that Devon/Ray is preaching to the mass audience.
@@EastsideArmWrestling Maybe it's the same way with them and they automatically think it's the same for everyone? To me is very weird to even begin to think slipping would be a problem for some, and I can't even remember many cases where that was a big factor in the outcome of high level supermatch outside of Dave vs Vitaly and Levan (funnily enough, 2 examples of guys is an incredible hand vs a guy who's very bad at slipping [Dave Chaffe]), but that might be selective memory
Very informative video! Love your videos
Thanks MT! Appreciate the support man
But have you considered that the matches that don't go to straps have been so dominant in strength regard that the strap wouldn't have changed anything so they just decided to save time
Counting only meaningful rounds that were not for showboating that's what we get:
Devon vs Denis 2/3 (on round 2 devon flash pinned denis)
John Brzenk vs Sasho Andreev 3/3
Todd Hutchings vs Kydyrgali Ongarbaev 3/3
Georgi Tsvetkov vs Zaur Paizulaev 3/3
Egle Vaitkute vs Sarah Backman 2/2 (third round Eglė was way too strong for the rest of the rounds)
Irakli Zirakashvili vs Rustam Babaiev 5/5
Davit Samushia vs Abdulmanaf 0/2 (after the first 2 matches the strength difference was way too big, also it's a hook match from both of the pullers)
Ivan Matyushenko vs Kamil Jablonski 0/3 (Kamil tried to slip but couldn't, in straps, Kamil would have won)
Artem Taynov vs Sasho Andreev 3/3 (they pulled one more, but it showboating and didn't matter since Artem wasn't fully trying in the 4th round)
Frank Lamparelli vs Matt Mask 4/4
Fia Reisek vs Rosa Maria Acosta 1/3 (they pulled one more, but there was a strength difference)
So the total amount of meaningful rounds were 34 of which 26 were in straps, making it 76.3% of the matches that went to straps, out of which only 6 rounds were where one of the pullers wanted the strap but couldn't get and 2 rounds where they didn't want straps at all. So the adjusted percentage is 26/32 making it 81.3% of strap matches.
And that proves my point! With all the data adjusted in favor of the counterargument as possible, it still only tops out at 81%, and that is for pretty much the most experienced people in the world with a laxed ruleset!
Ray and Devon are preaching this to their mass audience who are likely much lower in experience and are likely going to tournaments with a stricter ruleset. The information they push is harmful to the general audience.
I have question can I use HGH to increase my wrist size for arm wrestling?
🤣 I don’t think I should be advising on that
It is almost true that 90% of matches go to strap, just not general matches but close toproll matches they are about 80%
When I have the time, I’ll try to slice the data to adjust for this… now I need a LONG sleep after crunching all this data 😵💫
@@EastsideArmWrestling take some rest man you deserve it
You put Paul Linn's video twice in the description instead of the Cal from Omnipotent Growth video.
Thanks for helping me check that! I've fixed it.
Whats the data on devon getting the strap?
My dataset only has 2 matches with Devon (Him vs Denis & Him vs Levan). All but 1 match (where he flashed Cyplenkov) went to the strap
Tournements are completely different tho.
Exactly
Did you watch the video?
Gotta start copying your thumbnails, maestro.
🤣 this is where my digital marketing background is handy
I bet anytime you include my matches on a card I bring the total percentage up haha
Haha, you are definitely one of the toughest armwrestlers to contain. Interestingly enough, even a serial slipper like Matt mask has had a match where he didn't go to strap even once - see Matt Mask vs Wagner Bortolato
Great video.
Thanks as always, man!
Great vid man!
Thanks Jason! A lot of effort just to tell guys to bring lube to the next tournament 🤘
That’s a false conclusion
Please read through the comments and see if any of your counter arguments have been addressed yet!
i slip almost all of my matches tho if i dont decide to go in a hook and try to not let them slip either
Yeah, all about knowing the best approach for your opponent! Someone of your experience level will know that very well, I bet!
hi
Howdy ho, friend
You look like Ongarbaev's little brother
😂😂 the number of times I’ve seen this comment
Lol we know Devon's a liar
I don't think he has malicious intent, I just believe he only speaks from his own experience and has a narrow view of this topic.
If I were Devon Larratt, I'd think getting to straps is easy too. But sadly, that's not the reality for a good chunk of his audience.
@@EastsideArmWrestling makes sense! I was at the seminar shown in this video, I was just joking 🤣 See being in the 155lb class, I practice with mostly guys much heavier than me, and it's easy to slip out of their big hands with my skinny fingers. I'm caught off guard when I try to slip with someone in my weight class and they can actually grip my thumb/fingers hard enough to prevent me from slipping!
I bet the results would be totally different if you analyse a bunch of supermatches instead of a tournament
You didn't watch the video, did you? I literally went over data for 6 of the East vs West supermatch cards...
@@EastsideArmWrestling Only watched through the first and second timestamp before I made that comment
UA-cam algorithm boosting comment 💪 ... HA!
Gettin' them booster shots on the regular from Drew! Feeling good
Nah. If both are on similar level, if one wants to slip, they will slip. Tournament is not really relevant because first of all, not everyone is on the same level, second of all, not everyone want to slip. Devon is right, most of matches will be in the strap because when they're on your leve, they want to slip, and you decide to hold on to them outside of the strap, you will either get pinned or gas your hand and end up in the strap anyway.
This is a categorically false statement. I have personally experienced it multiple times where I was pinned/fouled out by an opponent because I couldn't slip and get to the strap (who I would otherwise win if I did get to straps).
It is a dangerous falsehood being spread by Devon and Ray to inexperienced people who haven't seen it happen themselves enough times to know the reality is much different.
@@EastsideArmWrestling " key word " : on similar level. If you can't slip , it's either that you're not on their level or you don't know how to slip. I've been pulling for years at 80kgs, not a single one occasion that i failed to slip in my weight class. There're a few cases that i punched up above my weight class and pulled those 110+ kg guys with way bigger and thicker hands that i had some trouble slipping, so no Devon is not wrong.
@@meitwasnt6705 You have a BIG misunderstanding here.
I beat those people very easily in straps, but outside of straps they have a better chance of beating me. It’s all about your strengths and weaknesses.
If it were as simple as “all matches go to straps” then it would take an entire part of the game out of the equation, and those people would be hugely disadvantaged against me. And even though having an easy access to strap will benefit me greatly, I still am not a supporter of moving the game to purely strap arm wrestling.
Just because you have an easy time going to straps doesn’t mean that other people do. It’s a skill, like any other, and for the majority of people it has to be learned. Not everyone has the same hand size/shape/strength. It’s easier for some and harder for others.
Devon is absolutely wrong. Just because he can force a strap easily, doesn’t mean a vast portion of his audience can. He’s perpetuating a dangerous falsehood, and I’m here to call him, and anyone else who say so, out on it.
@@EastsideArmWrestling lol no. Those who can't slip are just too stubborn or don't know how to pull. If you're a outside puller, most of your match should and would be in a strap unless someone dumb enough to hold on to you, the you'd have the easiest toproll of your life. Fyi, this is not just Devon, Travis talked about this, John talked about this, matt mass talked about this, Engin talked about this. Once you learn how to properly toproll, and not holding on. You will slip. I have a hard time believing you can beat those in the strap easily but you can't slip from them. If that's the case the you don't know what you're doing
@@meitwasnt6705 You’re speaking from an extremely close-minded position and it shows your lack of experience.
There *ARE* people out there who can and will prevent their opponent from slipping. Look at some of the rounds of Vitaly vs Ermes for example. Ermes fouled out so many times trying to bail from Vitaly.
Again, just because *YOU* have it easy, doesn’t mean others have it easy too. It would be like me telling people “oh you can’t just do 60kg backpressure because you don’t know how to do it”
It’s not a matter of being stubborn or not. In those case I obviously wanted to slip. It’s just that my opponents’ ability to hold on was better.
Slipping is a skill that has to be trained. And even then, holding on is another skill that can be trained as well. If your opponent’s ability to hold on is better than your ability to slip, then you can’t slip. Plain and simple.
Gain some experience before speaking in such absolutes.
Waf is garbage
:( I just wish they'd reply my emails
WAF lols
Please elaborate