Just amazing clarity and info! I am gonna save this one and watch it a couple of times a year till it gets ingrained in my head! It’s not about the numbers. It’s more psychology and self discipline than anything else. Thank you Larry!
Larry Williams, TY. It is great to have one "who keeps his wits while everybody else is losing theirs". Subscribed to your market letter for many, many years and own ALL of your books and a video like this reinforces why I purchased them to begin with. Keep safe.
I feel better now after watching...started entering the market on Thursday. It's been a really long time since I've felt this much despair selling on the crazy train, and coincided with a trendline break. Thank you Larry!
Thanks for these insights and trips into history! We think "This time is different" is one of the most dangerous adages of all time. These are hard times we live through, but so was WW1, WW2, Spanish Flu, etc. And as we mentioned recently - the market was still up over 32,000% from 1918-2000. Do not panic, remain calm, and take advantage of lower prices as long as you are financially stable.
Thank you Larry for the inspiring presentation. Great fan of your work. I have just one question: How was the range expansion situation in 1929/30? :-)
Thank you for your analysis Larry and Stockcharts. Does the range expansion indicator presume a perpetual upward sloping curve for the market over the long term? If so, how would you define long term and how would Japan, with a mkt down over 50% from it's 1989 high, factor into your model? Equities will be compelling again soon with interest rates at ZERO for the foreseeable future.
Hey Larry- don't you think the liquidation of Gold had to do with margin calls on long equity positions, as long positions couldn't be liquidated during lock limit periods? And why stocks? You taught me about futures 20 years ago, better leverage and preferential tax benefits.
Funny, everywhere I look people are trying to catch the falling knives. It's never over when people are still in "dip buying" mode. It ends when there is palpable despair and nobody is talking about buying anymore.
March 21...5 days later your relative strength in COST and JKHY have now gone lower and caught up with the weak market. They are no different than AAPL or GOOG of which all will rally when the market turns positive in April. Great charts though, nice historical range analysis.
@@blazetrader Your batting 800 book and video taught me a lot about trading when I started back in the 90's, and still use some of the techniques today.
@@blazetrader Sounds good. My definition of comparative strength is major insider buying at pivot points based on CEO's adding, like STWD at 10...great value says the CEO buying 200k, then apply the technicals to confirm.
Thanks, Larry. Love the videos you post and being able to cut through the media BS. For bottoms, I also like to include the Adv-Dec line, Nasdaq record high percent index and the number of issues above or below 200 moving average...all these was a godsend for me to be able to call the bottom in 2009. With treasury and bond yields at negative now, nowhere else to go for institutions but stocks! They ain't buying and storing gold bars!
Does anyone know which ATR Larry is using in the video? I am trying to replicate his ATR study/indicator with the ATR indicator on tradingview but I can't really match it. I am thankful for any help :-)
Vish. Sorry your name is bit long. Larry knows his stuff for sure. But I would not learn trading from him or from anyone, because it is too difficult. And really we don’t need it. There are many ways to invest than trade stocks like he does.
Thanks Larry. But my charts indicate completely the opposite. This was just the initial thrust. Exhaustion/capitulation low of course, but there will be pain moving forward imo. I believe we have now entered a secular bear, with cyclical bulls. 90s Japan style with their rate policy. My charts support this possibility. Good luck. Also, gold is holding all long term support still and is, after all, a commodity...it will explode once the inevitable hyperinflationary event occurs. Along with being a great store of value against Fiat currency. People need to think insurance with gold protection. Imo.
When the economy weakens, transport falls, so oil consumption falls. Earnings fall too, but investors don't find out as quickly as they do with oil prices, which are more transparent. Also, earnings data get distorted by stock buybacks.
This comes very close to confirming my projected market bottom of 4/22. Thank you Larry! I came up with 4/22 as the bottom based on forecasting when the virus daily growth rate will peak in the USA, assuming the virus follows the China trajectory. We are tracking very closely to China's experience as of now. As of today, Mar. 19, we just surpassed 10,000 cases which is 7 days elapsed from when we hit 100 cases. China took 6 days to hit 10,000 cases after hitting 100 cases and 49 days from that date the growth rate flattened to near 0% growth. But I'll take your forecast of 4/20 as the bottom since some coder on wall street probably likes the "significance" of that date, similar to the "devil" low of 666 on the S&P 500 in 2009 haha! Looking at an ultimate bottom in the 2200-2100 range, or as possibly as low as 2029 (50% fib retracement from the 2009 low).
Elon likes 420! Really, it's hard enough to choose a direction consistently- but projecting the date of a bottom? It'd be amazing if you're spot on, or even close. Infection rates usually do not follow a consistent trend line, in most epidemiological studies. Good Luck to you!
question is - WHEN IS THE BULL BACK? the biggest difficulty is there's no time scale with resolving this, could be a month? could be a year? could be a decade? Expect the government to buy back TLT on Monday (23rd). the government might force a rally by purchasing stocks to keep the economy floating and make the economy keep going. Boeing maybe on the cards for this even Ford and GE
Merlyn Lear Boeing, it seems from statements, is largely on its own. If they had grounded the MAX after the first one crashed they would be a nominee for a safety net, but as it stands no one wants to be seen as supporting irresponsible actions.
Did you see the part where he showed the volume spikes from this current session and previous ones? This spike in volume was much higher than previous spikes.
@@skcolo1 I should perhaps have mentioned that my yardstick for volume expansion are previous major panics, such as the crashes of 1929 and 1987. Now, I will grant that there are currently many technical and sentiment readings that suggest we are close to a short term low. A tradable rebound becomes more likely by the day. But I do not believe it will be anything more than that. If we do get a rebound immediately, I expect it to be followed by another wave of selling. Alternatively we may get a true panic sell-off right away that actually puts in a more durable low. Let me also add: my comments inter alia relate to something I observed on the way up. In recent years we saw many sentiment and "overbought" extremes in the data that failed to stop the advance. Noteworthy on these occasions was the fact that bears were very vocal on an anecdotal level. I see the same thing now in this decline, only the other way around. I find that a bit concerning, particularly as we are facing a very hard to gauge situation (no precedent really).
One thing is certain, Larry - you know infinitely more about the markets than I do but in all your back testing, it seems to me you are failing to factor in an unprecedented phenomena. Never before, to my knowledge, have we ever shut down so many businesses, en masse. Cash flow is being reduced to a trickle and I can't see how this bears favourably on the markets, nevermind consumer confidence. You say your indicator has a 65% accuracy (35% inaccurate) rate. Without question, 65% is very good. But when before have so many businesses together almost entirely stopped doing business? Even Amazon is essentially closing shop! When before have borders been closed like this? It seems to me that we're in uncharted waters and this whole situation is a bit of a wild card. Perhaps discretion is the greater part of valor. I must say; you sound very confident, and again, you know far more than I do and have much more success. You may be bang on. Time will tell.
I own a small buisness with 7 employees, and we'll be hit hard,money just stopped,I think the markets are going to pop higher in short term oversold levels, but fall again as #s come out,.We haven't seen panic yet,fundimentals are bad,I personally know alot of small buisnesess that have just now folded.on a longer term chart this drop is only a small blib.
I very much agree with Robert- the reality is different this time -if anyone can show me a reason why there will be a bull market soon with the coming months all so pessimistic.Bailing can do so much -what happens after that - no job no travel . Unless production is visible the bull logic is all a backward testing but yes this time the reality is different
That may be true. In the long run, there might be more downside to come. But even if the market only 'bounced' 50% from around an $18K low, that would be a fantastic move to catch, running into Trump's re-election (and then all bets are off).
@@MatDerKater of course! but its always the same in the financial Markets when we finally get a drop down everybody is too fearful to buy...hence most people never get RICH in this game..it takes brass balls....always a tough mental game.
It's always "different this time"- Remember the big shut down we are experiencing is not based on cases or deaths- it's based on containment- when the containment period is over, maybe somewhere around 8 weeks- we'll get more and more optimistic reporting. China is reporting no new cases, but take that with a grain of salt. Pensions, hedge funds, banks literally have nowhere to put money, if they start buying bonds- bond prices rise, and bond yields decrease. I don't know if the time is now, and I hope the time becomes obvious, but when it does, there will be a "V" bottom, as opposed to a flat basing pattern, and this thing is going to skyrocket to the moon in short order. Generational money can be made- by having guts and hanging on. Good luck all! The seasonal Fed Funds chart (I'm assuming liquidity not rates)- doesn't reflect the HUGE spike that has occurred the last 2 weeks.
i am leaning towards the V bottom based on the fact that there is so much panick selling which will force the market to drastically overshoot its mark at first. Weather we go into another bull market after the V bottom or slowly go down afterwards is a different story.
CAUTION: the markets don't always come back - the Japanese market never reached it's previous highs of decades ago. This is because economic power has always shifted from nation to nation. Currently we are seeing the rise of Asia - large population cheap labour means these emerging nations will take over the economic reign this century. It also means the US markets cannot compete and will probably not reach it's previous highs either.
60 years trading and no pandemic experience. Education still ongoing. Charts mean nothing in this environment. Not a good time to be in the market and not a good time to be bottom fishing with the vix at these levels.
But isn't this the case for most crashes/bear markets? The financial crises 2008/09 also felt like the world is ending. This time it's a virus. We just keep forgetting how past crises felt and have a recency bias.
Why would I want to identify companies of relative strength? They might be prone to recover faster than the market overall but not travel as far as companies with relative weakness. Who took a beating worse than the market and why. I think I would rather sell companies of relative strength and buy those companies that have exhibited relative weakness to the overall market. Im no pro in this game, but flipping the logic upside down might be more profitable.
When coronavirus outbreak peaks at beginning of April, stock market confidence will be back. We see the pandemic does have a peak cycle around the world. China death toll started from mid Jan and finally started to come down, Japan, Korea,hk ,and other eastern countries just finished it's peak, now north America and Europe just started the outbreak for a couple weeks, it'll start to come down at April. Oil would stayed low price until April 22nd when Putin passes his term limited amendment, then we will be back on full bullish mode. Forget about second quarter earning statement during July and August... They are gonna be bad, and people already expecting that, so it's been priced in already.
We may well get a dead cat bounce soon, but stocks bottom around midway into a recession, not at the very beginning of the recession. Furthermore, investors are too optimistic. Look what happened in China, Iran, and Italy. People still don't believe it can happen here. Earnings will fall more than anticipated, and, if stock buybacks get banned, then earnings per share will fall even more. I don't expect the real bottom before 2021.
You can NEVER catch the bottom, so it's a matter of limiting down side risk- if you start buying, and still suffer an additional 3% draw down, it's better then buying @ 10% higher prices.
@@ST_TrendTrader it's a first step if you are willing to take a long term approach, but not really a good timing mechanism. need to see breadth improve across sectors, and a reversal pattern form, for a trade. and even that rally could result in a flag, and second leg down. the breaking of the 10 year trend channel is a concern.
@@driger888 "need to see breadth improve across sectors, and a reversal pattern form, for a trade. and even that rally could result in a flag, and second leg down." If they're not relevant, why do you need to see them? Reversal pattern? Have you seen any of them that worked well?
@@ST_TrendTrader reversal patterns combined with breadth indicators work well. however, a better strategy might be to short the rallys until the downtrend has been reversed. buying based on large selling volume it akin to suicide if you are trying to manage the trade with stops.
@Larry Williams Here we are a little over a month after Larry published this, and it's turned out to be 100% correct. Great call, Larry!
Just amazing clarity and info! I am gonna save this one and watch it a couple of times a year till it gets ingrained in my head! It’s not about the numbers. It’s more psychology and self discipline than anything else. Thank you Larry!
Thanks for sharing Larry. I've been following your work for over 25 years and its so nice to hear your thoughts at such a critical time .
Larry Williams, TY. It is great to have one "who keeps his wits while everybody else is losing theirs". Subscribed to your market letter for many, many years and own ALL of your books and a video like this reinforces why I purchased them to begin with. Keep safe.
I feel better now after watching...started entering the market on Thursday. It's been a really long time since I've felt this much despair selling on the crazy train, and coincided with a trendline break. Thank you Larry!
How many people were saying this back in March? No one. Congrats Larry!
And to add to this, now that we're two years away, this definitely was the bottom. Brilliant, Larry.
Thanks for these insights and trips into history! We think "This time is different" is one of the most dangerous adages of all time. These are hard times we live through, but so was WW1, WW2, Spanish Flu, etc. And as we mentioned recently - the market was still up over 32,000% from 1918-2000. Do not panic, remain calm, and take advantage of lower prices as long as you are financially stable.
Always enjoy your perspective on the market....!!
Thank you Larry for the inspiring presentation. Great fan of your work. I have just one question: How was the range expansion situation in 1929/30? :-)
Very insightful! Appreciate the counter opinion. We shall know shortly whether your bold call is right.
Thank you for your analysis Larry and Stockcharts. Does the range expansion indicator presume a perpetual upward sloping curve for the market over the long term? If so, how would you define long term and how would Japan, with a mkt down over 50% from it's 1989 high, factor into your model? Equities will be compelling again soon with interest rates at ZERO for the foreseeable future.
Damn Larry
You did it yet again!
Hi Larry. You really should do a video on the uranium market, would be nice to hear your opinion on that market? 😌
Hey Larry- don't you think the liquidation of Gold had to do with margin calls on long equity positions, as long positions couldn't be liquidated during lock limit periods? And why stocks? You taught me about futures 20 years ago, better leverage and preferential tax benefits.
Funny, everywhere I look people are trying to catch the falling knives. It's never over when people are still in "dip buying" mode. It ends when there is palpable despair and nobody is talking about buying anymore.
What is Larry using as his charting service and to build this range expansion indicator?
That's market wisdom. Awesome!!
the side ad shows Rickards is bearish and Williams is bullish. If you do not know what that means, it is be very bullish.
Great Video. Thank, Larry!
Thanks for Posting
March 21...5 days later your relative strength in COST and JKHY have now gone lower and caught up with the weak market. They are no different than AAPL or GOOG of which all will
rally when the market turns positive in April. Great charts though, nice historical range analysis.
@@blazetrader Your batting 800 book and video taught me a lot about trading when I started back in the 90's, and still use some of the techniques today.
@@blazetrader Sounds good. My definition of comparative strength is major insider buying at pivot points based on CEO's adding, like STWD at 10...great value says the CEO buying 200k, then apply the technicals to confirm.
Thanks, Larry. Love the videos you post and being able to cut through the media BS. For bottoms, I also like to include the Adv-Dec line, Nasdaq record high percent index and the number of issues above or below 200 moving average...all these was a godsend for me to be able to call the bottom in 2009. With treasury and bond yields at negative now, nowhere else to go for institutions but stocks! They ain't buying and storing gold bars!
Does anyone know which ATR Larry is using in the video? I am trying to replicate his ATR study/indicator with the ATR indicator on tradingview but I can't really match it. I am thankful for any help :-)
Nailed it (so far) , big bounce today up 7%
Any updates to the model since the breach lower, particularly for jkhy and Fast both of which got crushed below 200 day ma. Thank you
I'm with you Larry Time to buy
Does timing solutions take the "expected move" from options, and turn it into a chart? And as for NUGT's action this week - one word - "oops" ;)
i wish, i could board a time-machine, to travel back into march, so that i can see this wise advice in action, thank you larry, - your new subscriber
Vish. Sorry your name is bit long. Larry knows his stuff for sure. But I would not learn trading from him or from anyone, because it is too difficult. And really we don’t need it. There are many ways to invest than trade stocks like he does.
I'm with you Larry Time to buy + 1
Great stuff!
Thanks Larry. But my charts indicate completely the opposite. This was just the initial thrust. Exhaustion/capitulation low of course, but there will be pain moving forward imo. I believe we have now entered a secular bear, with cyclical bulls. 90s Japan style with their rate policy. My charts support this possibility. Good luck.
Also, gold is holding all long term support still and is, after all, a commodity...it will explode once the inevitable hyperinflationary event occurs. Along with being a great store of value against Fiat currency. People need to think insurance with gold protection. Imo.
@@blazetrader agreed. Good luck.
When the economy weakens, transport falls, so oil consumption falls. Earnings fall too, but investors don't find out as quickly as they do with oil prices, which are more transparent. Also, earnings data get distorted by stock buybacks.
Looks good to me! Thanks for sharing.
A Pros Pro. Nailed it!
Thanks
This comes very close to confirming my projected market bottom of 4/22. Thank you Larry!
I came up with 4/22 as the bottom based on forecasting when the virus daily growth rate will peak in the USA, assuming the virus follows the China trajectory. We are tracking very closely to China's experience as of now. As of today, Mar. 19, we just surpassed 10,000 cases which is 7 days elapsed from when we hit 100 cases. China took 6 days to hit 10,000 cases after hitting 100 cases and 49 days from that date the growth rate flattened to near 0% growth. But I'll take your forecast of 4/20 as the bottom since some coder on wall street probably likes the "significance" of that date, similar to the "devil" low of 666 on the S&P 500 in 2009 haha!
Looking at an ultimate bottom in the 2200-2100 range, or as possibly as low as 2029 (50% fib retracement from the 2009 low).
Elon likes 420! Really, it's hard enough to choose a direction consistently- but projecting the date of a bottom? It'd be amazing if you're spot on, or even close. Infection rates usually do not follow a consistent trend line, in most epidemiological studies. Good Luck to you!
i think infection rates are going to level out before that due to drastic shut downs and self quarantines taking effect.
question is - WHEN IS THE BULL BACK? the biggest difficulty is there's no time scale with resolving this, could be a month? could be a year? could be a decade?
Expect the government to buy back TLT on Monday (23rd). the government might force a rally by purchasing stocks to keep the economy floating and make the economy keep going.
Boeing maybe on the cards for this even Ford and GE
Merlyn Lear Boeing, it seems from statements, is largely on its own. If they had grounded the MAX after the first one crashed they would be a nominee for a safety net, but as it stands no one wants to be seen as supporting irresponsible actions.
This is not the crash we have been waiting for no down signal has appeared and we are still controlled by the June 3ed 2019 uptrend reversal
this is great
I liked your toilet paper joke.
Me too. Finally dragged myself to the fresh market today to buy some food, and toilet paper. :) They were out, of course.
the credit spreads which exploded higher last week are historically 6 months before the lows...all with 40% more downside
Thanks. Good call.
Should have mentioned Amazon, Netflix and Tesla
This aged well!
Look for a bull trap rally, and then a sell off till the mid April cycle low. Use the time to start picking out your new stock portfolio. Good luck.
Larry's short-term cycle projection forecasts the next low to be in the last week of May.
Oh, and there has not been any "panic selling" yet. A true panic sees trading volume explode to 10 times the preceding average. We are not there yet.
Did you see the part where he showed the volume spikes from this current session and previous ones? This spike in volume was much higher than previous spikes.
@@skcolo1 I should perhaps have mentioned that my yardstick for volume expansion are previous major panics, such as the crashes of 1929 and 1987. Now, I will grant that there are currently many technical and sentiment readings that suggest we are close to a short term low. A tradable rebound becomes more likely by the day. But I do not believe it will be anything more than that. If we do get a rebound immediately, I expect it to be followed by another wave of selling. Alternatively we may get a true panic sell-off right away that actually puts in a more durable low. Let me also add: my comments inter alia relate to something I observed on the way up. In recent years we saw many sentiment and "overbought" extremes in the data that failed to stop the advance. Noteworthy on these occasions was the fact that bears were very vocal on an anecdotal level. I see the same thing now in this decline, only the other way around. I find that a bit concerning, particularly as we are facing a very hard to gauge situation (no precedent really).
One thing is certain, Larry - you know infinitely more about the markets than I do but in all your back testing, it seems to me you are failing to factor in an unprecedented phenomena. Never before, to my knowledge, have we ever shut down so many businesses, en masse. Cash flow is being reduced to a trickle and I can't see how this bears favourably on the markets, nevermind consumer confidence.
You say your indicator has a 65% accuracy (35% inaccurate) rate. Without question, 65% is very good. But when before have so many businesses together almost entirely stopped doing business? Even Amazon is essentially closing shop! When before have borders been closed like this? It seems to me that we're in uncharted waters and this whole situation is a bit of a wild card.
Perhaps discretion is the greater part of valor. I must say; you sound very confident, and again, you know far more than I do and have much more success. You may be bang on. Time will tell.
I own a small buisness with 7 employees, and we'll be hit hard,money just stopped,I think the markets are going to pop higher in short term oversold levels, but fall again as #s come out,.We haven't seen panic yet,fundimentals are bad,I personally know alot of small buisnesess that have just now folded.on a longer term chart this drop is only a small blib.
I very much agree with Robert- the reality is different this time -if anyone can show me a reason why there will be a bull market soon with the coming months all so pessimistic.Bailing can do so much -what happens after that - no job no travel . Unless production is visible the bull logic is all a backward testing but yes this time the reality is different
@@stevensingh1805 its never "different" they want you to believe that but its always the same just extreme FEAR and GREED.
That may be true. In the long run, there might be more downside to come. But even if the market only 'bounced' 50% from around an $18K low, that would be a fantastic move to catch, running into Trump's re-election (and then all bets are off).
@@MatDerKater of course! but its always the same in the financial Markets when we finally get a drop down everybody is too fearful to buy...hence most people never get RICH in this game..it takes brass balls....always a tough mental game.
It's always "different this time"- Remember the big shut down we are experiencing is not based on cases or deaths- it's based on containment- when the containment period is over, maybe somewhere around 8 weeks- we'll get more and more optimistic reporting. China is reporting no new cases, but take that with a grain of salt. Pensions, hedge funds, banks literally have nowhere to put money, if they start buying bonds- bond prices rise, and bond yields decrease. I don't know if the time is now, and I hope the time becomes obvious, but when it does, there will be a "V" bottom, as opposed to a flat basing pattern, and this thing is going to skyrocket to the moon in short order. Generational money can be made- by having guts and hanging on. Good luck all!
The seasonal Fed Funds chart (I'm assuming liquidity not rates)- doesn't reflect the HUGE spike that has occurred the last 2 weeks.
i am leaning towards the V bottom based on the fact that there is so much panick selling which will force the market to drastically overshoot its mark at first. Weather we go into another bull market after the V bottom or slowly go down afterwards is a different story.
YenTrader2 I hope you’re rite, and love the optimism
CAUTION: the markets don't always come back - the Japanese market never reached it's previous highs of decades ago. This is because economic power has always shifted from nation to nation. Currently we are seeing the rise of Asia - large population cheap labour means these emerging nations will take over the economic reign this century. It also means the US markets cannot compete and will probably not reach it's previous highs either.
Do they realy need so much energy to print those trillons?
60 years trading and no pandemic experience. Education still ongoing. Charts mean nothing in this environment. Not a good time to be in the market and not a good time to be bottom fishing with the vix at these levels.
Well said
Agreed. A great number of unmeasurable and unprecedented variables. Too soon to be calling bottoms.
But isn't this the case for most crashes/bear markets? The financial crises 2008/09 also felt like the world is ending. This time it's a virus. We just keep forgetting how past crises felt and have a recency bias.
Interesting but this crisis is similar to a war, maybe worst... the sp500 bottom I think will be around 1700
Why would I want to identify companies of relative strength? They might be prone to recover faster than the market overall but not travel as far as companies with relative weakness. Who took a beating worse than the market and why. I think I would rather sell companies of relative strength and buy those companies that have exhibited relative weakness to the overall market. Im no pro in this game, but flipping the logic upside down might be more profitable.
When coronavirus outbreak peaks at beginning of April, stock market confidence will be back. We see the pandemic does have a peak cycle around the world. China death toll started from mid Jan and finally started to come down, Japan, Korea,hk ,and other eastern countries just finished it's peak, now north America and Europe just started the outbreak for a couple weeks, it'll start to come down at April. Oil would stayed low price until April 22nd when Putin passes his term limited amendment, then we will be back on full bullish mode. Forget about second quarter earning statement during July and August... They are gonna be bad, and people already expecting that, so it's been priced in already.
Is this guy a genius or what
Wish I saw this a month ago 😭
larry is telling the market should rally this week? every tech analyst saying still few weeks? it is to be seen.....
Bull trap maybe... economic numbers do not support a solid long sustained rally.Economic numbers support long term downward market price.
Not sure it is safe to go back into the water yet. People who watch this video be careful.
We may well get a dead cat bounce soon, but stocks bottom around midway into a recession, not at the very beginning of the recession. Furthermore, investors are too optimistic. Look what happened in China, Iran, and Italy. People still don't believe it can happen here. Earnings will fall more than anticipated, and, if stock buybacks get banned, then earnings per share will fall even more. I don't expect the real bottom before 2021.
gold was up 20% in the last bear market in stocks. stocks lost 50%.
The market will not bottom until we know the virus has been defeated in the US. This will take more time.
@@blazetrader thank you fake Larry Williams have any other fake news?
@@blazetrader Only $1,000?
panic selling is not started yet .....its still to come
if you had bought on that principle, you'd have bought well before the bottom on all those declines.
You can NEVER catch the bottom, so it's a matter of limiting down side risk- if you start buying, and still suffer an additional 3% draw down, it's better then buying @ 10% higher prices.
@@ST_TrendTrader it's a first step if you are willing to take a long term approach, but not really a good timing mechanism. need to see breadth improve across sectors, and a reversal pattern form, for a trade. and even that rally could result in a flag, and second leg down. the breaking of the 10 year trend channel is a concern.
@@driger888 "need to see breadth improve across sectors, and a reversal pattern form, for a trade. and even that rally could result in a flag, and second leg down."
If they're not relevant, why do you need to see them? Reversal pattern? Have you seen any of them that worked well?
@@ST_TrendTrader reversal patterns combined with breadth indicators work well. however, a better strategy might be to short the rallys until the downtrend has been reversed. buying based on large selling volume it akin to suicide if you are trying to manage the trade with stops.
But the bad news isn't nearly over....
Market is a forward mechanism. It bottoms before things turn around
AAPL FAST collapsed!
But it hasn't dropped below its 200-day moving. It's one of few stocks that has held above it.
didn't call a top so now u can pick a bottom
Great stuff!
Thanks!