Excellent and sound presentation. Great correlation of PE ratios and the current valuation of stocks! Gives confidence to buy the dips and possibly build a position over the next few weeks.
Larry - Thanks for your analysis and insight. I understood that, total amount of money USA has is ~3- 4T , rest are credits ( ~15- 20T). So, the FED just pumped in total about 4.3T. Is that 4.3T is credits ? are those come with strings attached ?
Probably just talking to myself here, but... A lot of talk about the price in the P/E ratio, but not about the earnings. Yes, stock prices have fallen but the world shutting down will bring earnings down with it resulting in valuations that aren't as low as one would think. Also, you make it sound like the FED has the magic formula. Is it really as easy as keeping rates down and flooding the world with dollars? No consequences to these actions? I'm not convinced.
Did you take into account the enormous losses so many companies are having due to being forced to close temporarily? Won't these losses show up in future stock prices?
Stacy Dale Barendse meaning that they will offer the masses a safe haven or that they will be manipulated as instruments to subvert even greater quantities of wealth? Asking for a friend..
@@KerouacsAccomplice Fiat is dead. Decentralized crypto finance is the future. Unfortunately not many understand the blockchain technology. Its not just the money...it is software that will keep everyone accountable as central banks do not allow the free markets to work.
Larry isn’t it different now? The fed is putting more money into the system but I don’t see productivity increase with ppl not working...if productivity does not increase ...what then?
So, the monetization of debt is good? The PE looks low at the moment but a continued slow down will make the current PEs look high. Fed was created in 1913.
we may avoid a recession by definition because the stop happened so fast. R is defined as 2 quarters of negative growth. how can we slow down any more next quarter than we already did. therefore no recession.
Interesting presentation. My pet peeve is any chart that doesn't label the x and y axis. Virtually every chart shown in this video has no labels. I took a statistics course in college about lying with statistics. It focused on truthfulness in statistical analysis and how that concept is violated every day. Although I think I can trust your words I have to tell you that your video would have probably made it into my professor's classroom. LOL
What you failed to say is that the level of the stock market is totally disconnected from the real economy. The increase in debt by $2T will place our country firmly in the club of countries that have a debt to GDP ratio above 100%.
A word of caution for everyone,. the economy was already weakening....low PMI, inverted yield curve, huge debt, ,.,, and then the coronavirus hit...... many companies and small businesses are now paralyzed, millions of people are out of work, virus testing is backlogged, no cure as yet, and the new normal will not be the same as it was....... sorry this is not going to be a quick bounce back to normalcy.... I don't want to scare anyone, we will get through this eventually, but buying stocks now is a horrible idea. . Joel
@@blazetrader Larry , great presentation, really, thanks for putting this out! We really differ on where it goes from here... the reason for the 50% is because of the Fed, no doubt, which created a safety net/floor for the market... but as we creep up more, every investor will start asking is this Justified?.....And the answer is clearly no. This virus and it's affect on business is not going away anytime soon.... the economic rebound is going to be anemic at best over the next few months, possibly to a year or more, .........and, by the way, have I introduced you to my little friend, the sma 200 line, who is just around the corner and often doesn't like prices to just pass through.... . Thx for the feedback! Joel
Hi Larry, Just wanted to say you were right... which means I was wrong.... Good Job to your analysis! (Of course the 2nd, even bigger wave, starts down tomorrow!)
@@blazetrader Thx Larry, funny how the hardest thing in life is to say I was wrong....., but as long as that means I am learning from my mistakes , it's a good thing! .... Cheers Mate!
good info and not to disrespect.. buti think in this video Larry is clinging on too much to history and not enough to different potential scenarios that could play out. also, the real inflation has been in real estate and that's eating a big chuck away from your purchasing power and jacking up your cost of living. does it matter if your bread stays the same price but your rent shot up for the avg joe? yes!! at the end of the day the cash out of his/her pocket increased. decades ago avg people used to be able to buy a house with a year or two worth of salary.
oh, you're chart don't show the percentile for (almost) recession due to date and you're way above 1M job claims. Wonder what happens with thoose next time measured. and when crisis is over and all thoose who though they had jobs to go back to can't. Small buisnesses in bankruptcy and soforth. Don't get me wrong I do belive FED will solve this one too, but at a cost. There has to be a whole lotta buying to make up for that. The two charts one gold goes in summer and the one that we're in the top of a cycle, I really appreciated and can get behind. All in all good job.
Larry, thank you for your full spectrum presentation. Perhaps, though you left out the bankrupt moral and philosophical example set forth by the Fed with this huge expansion in govt. liabilities. Trust and solid ethics that are the hallmark of Adam Smith and the Austrian School economists have been sliced by the Fed's Keynesian seat of their pants, panic experiments. By creating the illusion of free money and a genie that appears in downturns, the Fed undermines ultimate trust in the system as liabilities grow exponetially. At the heart of this facade, Larry, to any outside observer, is an obvious, confidence carnival game.The Fed thinks the public are rubes and marks in this confidence game, and in the process have exposed this intent to anyone with a modicum of street smarts. John Law tried this confidence game hundreds of years ago in France, and he ended up on the run from pitchforks. Larry, for the sake of the next generation, it's time to restore integrity and a rules based monetary policy. Why do we need Leninists disguised as Keynesians to set the rate of money when the market knows more than Marxists pretending to be erudite with their Windsor knots and bow ties. Larry we are using up the seed corn of the next generation to keep this over levered casino afloat. You always stress money management, so by your standards the Fed has broken all the prudent money management rules to save face and keep this confidence game going. Anyways, Larry thank you for all your guiding light education through the years and helping traders across the world understand the "free markets."
@@blazetrader Thank you Larry for your response, and for enlightening so many traders across the world with your leading edge trading techniques. Just as an aside, I believe hedge fund manager extraordinaire Bruce Koevner once implied in an interview, the "law of least effort" from physics is seemingly quite pervasive in life from politics, business, and even Fed policy. Take the "easy" step now and not plan for the after effects on the next generation. Mr. Koevner's observations ring true now after trying to contemplate how these decisions are arrived by the Fed in the boardroom in view of the compelling Austrian School research of past monetary policy "mistakes" of central bankers. You are right though how the big picture philosophy does not help us in the short term trading game, and to stay focused on trading principles you have taught. Will miss your must see program Larry TV now with your "retirement," but know you still have lots of aces up your sleeve as you continue the never ending quest for market truth. As Ralph Waldo Emerson noted and your trading service highlights, "...deep simplicity is the supreme elegance." Sail on, sail on sailor. Look forward to your next trading breakthrough even in your "retirement." All the best Larry from a long time subscriber.
Larry casually overlook in his unemployment vs. Fed injection timing vs. stock price graph that in both the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 cases, stock prices FIRST did another SUBSTANTIALLY deeper low within about a year or so to complete those bear markets. He points to the FOLLOWING bull market, an ignores that fact. Of course there's going to be a bull market in stocks coming... AFTER this bear finishes, and per the charts Larry has shown and the timing, that's going to still take awhile (about a year?), and will come with substantially lower prices in equities first. I'm just pointing out here what the data he shows actually indicates.
On additional point: the PE ratio charts are based on OLD EARNINGS, not what we expect to see here in the Q2, much less Q3 earnings announcements, which will be HORRIBLE. And thus vastly change these graphs. So it may be that stocks are NOT "cheap" right now at all. Of course it all beg the question of what about earnings in Q4 and '21Q1? Vast unknown, but right now that looks grim.
@@blazetrader Didn't happen, did it? I have learned from this last year. Price action speaks, and ignore prognostications. Wait for quality set ups and trade them. No biases, ever. Thanks for your work.
@@briansmith2836 he's had a couple misses as well..like we all do at times..I just am very firm in the camp that we aren't out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination with the fed saving the day..but I still respect his analysis nonetheless.. I just have tons of technical indicators and charts that paint a completely different picture from a long term basis. But we can always agree to disagree. 👍
@@briansmith2836 I recall he made a pretty bullish stance right before the March crash. I'd have to go back and look. We've had some back and forth about it... And its all good.. disagreement is what makes a market. 👍
@@briansmith2836 this year. I believe it was his video right before the 3.17 one he put out a month or two before.. I just disagreed on his long term thesis that he had is all. His call on the bottom was good enough to warrant kudos.. but as I said...we aren't out of the woods yet. That's all.
@@briansmith2836 fair enough. No harm no foul.. Larry has a general view of the market I disagree with.. it is what it is. We get to agree to disagree. Take care.
Forward p/e is NOT 15. The S&P earnings estimates 12 months out, are around 140-145, leaving the forward to p/e around 19. Has this guy been living in a cave the last few months? LMAO
One of the best in analysis and certainly trading. Thank you for this webinar Stock Charts and Larry.
You've got to love Larry's charts....Always original and always a leading indicator.
Always like listening to Larry.
It's a genuine advice to look into FED's data. Truly appreciate Larry will point it out.
Excellent and sound presentation. Great correlation of PE ratios and the current valuation of stocks! Gives confidence to buy the dips and possibly build a position over the next few weeks.
Larry you are fantastic. Thank you for sharing your wisdom.
Fantastic video with intelligent, thoughtful, original analysis. I have viewed this 3 times and I am going to watch it again!
Glad you enjoyed it!
the legend, larry williams havent seen this name in decades !
excellent stuff facts and data not opinion and conjecture
Thank You Sir! You are a Master Teacher... God Bless
Larry - Thanks for your analysis and insight. I understood that, total amount of money USA has is ~3- 4T , rest are credits ( ~15- 20T). So, the FED just pumped in total about 4.3T. Is that 4.3T is credits ? are those come with strings attached ?
With the covid 19 and whole world shutting down, how can we increase the productivity?
Work at home.
Productivity will certainly take a hit no matter what we do at the government level. Not everyone can work from home.
Hedge your bets, get rich, out your feet up.
Hello, I was wondering if you know where this moon paper is by the fed. i could not find it. I was curious.
Larry is so dam good, when all others are predicting a Global depression now
That's what you want to hear. You're not being objective you fool
Probably just talking to myself here, but...
A lot of talk about the price in the P/E ratio, but not about the earnings. Yes, stock prices have fallen but the world shutting down will bring earnings down with it resulting in valuations that aren't as low as one would think.
Also, you make it sound like the FED has the magic formula. Is it really as easy as keeping rates down and flooding the world with dollars? No consequences to these actions? I'm not convinced.
Did you take into account the enormous losses so many companies are having due to being forced to close temporarily? Won't these losses show up in future stock prices?
When an index gets and stays back above it's recent all time highs we will know for sure... That being said, let's not hold our breathe.
One more question..with the rally off the bottom, don’t you think it will retrace?
Much respect Larry! The wildcard now unlike 08, is digital currencies.
Stacy Dale Barendse meaning that they will offer the masses a safe haven or that they will be manipulated as instruments to subvert even greater quantities of wealth? Asking for a friend..
@@KerouacsAccomplice Fiat is dead. Decentralized crypto finance is the future. Unfortunately not many understand the blockchain technology. Its not just the money...it is software that will keep everyone accountable as central banks do not allow the free markets to work.
Larry isn’t it different now? The fed is putting more money into the system but I don’t see productivity increase with ppl not working...if productivity does not increase ...what then?
Inflation goes up and asset value beats cash
So, the monetization of debt is good? The PE looks low at the moment but a continued slow down will make the current PEs look high. Fed was created in 1913.
we may avoid a recession by definition because the stop happened so fast. R is defined as 2 quarters of negative growth. how can we slow down any more next quarter than we already did. therefore no recession.
The Fed started dec 1913 yes they have a great deal of data of which I have been a student of the fed since 1972
Interesting presentation. My pet peeve is any chart that doesn't label the x and y axis. Virtually every chart shown in this video has no labels. I took a statistics course in college about lying with statistics. It focused on truthfulness in statistical analysis and how that concept is violated every day. Although I think I can trust your words I have to tell you that your video would have probably made it into my professor's classroom. LOL
It looks like the end of May is a buying opportunity due to pull back?
larry what about bitcoin is this ever going to replace the dollar ?
The injections of cash by the Fed is deflationary b/c the cash does not go to the people like they say. The inflation is in the asset prices .
They don’t show recession on charts til several quarters after the fact. This is unprecedented event.
What you failed to say is that the level of the stock market is totally disconnected from the real economy. The increase in debt by $2T will place our country firmly in the club of countries that have a debt to GDP ratio above 100%.
William Hutcheson by the end of this you’ll be lucky if your country isn’t included in that category.
A word of caution for everyone,. the economy was already weakening....low PMI, inverted yield curve, huge debt, ,.,, and then the coronavirus hit...... many companies and small businesses are now paralyzed, millions of people are out of work, virus testing is backlogged, no cure as yet, and the new normal will not be the same as it was....... sorry this is not going to be a quick bounce back to normalcy.... I don't want to scare anyone, we will get through this eventually, but buying stocks now is a horrible idea. . Joel
@@blazetrader Larry , great presentation, really, thanks for putting this out! We really differ on where it goes from here... the reason for the 50% is because of the Fed, no doubt, which created a safety net/floor for the market... but as we creep up more, every investor will start asking is this Justified?.....And the answer is clearly no. This virus and it's affect on business is not going away anytime soon.... the economic rebound is going to be anemic at best over the next few months, possibly to a year or more, .........and, by the way, have I introduced you to my little friend, the sma 200 line, who is just around the corner and often doesn't like prices to just pass through.... . Thx for the feedback! Joel
Hi Larry,
Just wanted to say you were right... which means I was wrong.... Good Job to your analysis! (Of course the 2nd, even bigger wave, starts down tomorrow!)
@@blazetrader Thx Larry, funny how the hardest thing in life is to say I was wrong....., but as long as that means I am learning from my mistakes , it's a good thing! .... Cheers Mate!
I don't believe you believe what you're saying. What are your positions presently?
they started in 1913 not 1033
One day we will pay for the excess toilet paper
good info and not to disrespect.. buti think in this video Larry is clinging on too much to history and not enough to different potential scenarios that could play out. also, the real inflation has been in real estate and that's eating a big chuck away from your purchasing power and jacking up your cost of living. does it matter if your bread stays the same price but your rent shot up for the avg joe? yes!! at the end of the day the cash out of his/her pocket increased. decades ago avg people used to be able to buy a house with a year or two worth of salary.
oh, you're chart don't show the percentile for (almost) recession due to date and you're way above 1M job claims. Wonder what happens with thoose next time measured. and when crisis is over and all thoose who though they had jobs to go back to can't. Small buisnesses in bankruptcy and soforth. Don't get me wrong I do belive FED will solve this one too, but at a cost. There has to be a whole lotta buying to make up for that. The two charts one gold goes in summer and the one that we're in the top of a cycle, I really appreciated and can get behind. All in all good job.
Larry, thank you for your full spectrum presentation. Perhaps, though you left out the bankrupt moral and philosophical example set forth by the Fed with this huge expansion in govt. liabilities. Trust and solid ethics that are the hallmark of Adam Smith and the Austrian School economists have been sliced by the Fed's Keynesian seat of their pants, panic experiments. By creating the illusion of free money and a genie that appears in downturns, the Fed undermines ultimate trust in the system as liabilities grow exponetially. At the heart of this facade, Larry, to any outside observer, is an obvious, confidence carnival game.The Fed thinks the public are rubes and marks in this confidence game, and in the process have exposed this intent to anyone with a modicum of street smarts. John Law tried this confidence game hundreds of years ago in France, and he ended up on the run from pitchforks. Larry, for the sake of the next generation, it's time to restore integrity and a rules based monetary policy. Why do we need Leninists disguised as Keynesians to set the rate of money when the market knows more than Marxists pretending to be erudite with their Windsor knots and bow ties. Larry we are using up the seed corn of the next generation to keep this over levered casino afloat. You always stress money management, so by your standards the Fed has broken all the prudent money management rules to save face and keep this confidence game going. Anyways, Larry thank you for all your guiding light education through the years and helping traders across the world understand the "free markets."
@@blazetrader Thank you Larry for your response, and for enlightening so many traders across the world with your leading edge trading techniques. Just as an aside, I believe hedge fund manager extraordinaire Bruce Koevner once implied in an interview, the "law of least effort" from physics is seemingly quite pervasive in life from politics, business, and even Fed policy. Take the "easy" step now and not plan for the after effects on the next generation. Mr. Koevner's observations ring true now after trying to contemplate how these decisions are arrived by the Fed in the boardroom in view of the compelling Austrian School research of past monetary policy "mistakes" of central bankers. You are right though how the big picture philosophy does not help us in the short term trading game, and to stay focused on trading principles you have taught. Will miss your must see program Larry TV now with your "retirement," but know you still have lots of aces up your sleeve as you continue the never ending quest for market truth. As Ralph Waldo Emerson noted and your trading service highlights, "...deep simplicity is the supreme elegance." Sail on, sail on sailor. Look forward to your next trading breakthrough even in your "retirement." All the best Larry from a long time subscriber.
Larry casually overlook in his unemployment vs. Fed injection timing vs. stock price graph that in both the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 cases, stock prices FIRST did another SUBSTANTIALLY deeper low within about a year or so to complete those bear markets. He points to the FOLLOWING bull market, an ignores that fact. Of course there's going to be a bull market in stocks coming... AFTER this bear finishes, and per the charts Larry has shown and the timing, that's going to still take awhile (about a year?), and will come with substantially lower prices in equities first. I'm just pointing out here what the data he shows actually indicates.
On additional point: the PE ratio charts are based on OLD EARNINGS, not what we expect to see here in the Q2, much less Q3 earnings announcements, which will be HORRIBLE. And thus vastly change these graphs. So it may be that stocks are NOT "cheap" right now at all. Of course it all beg the question of what about earnings in Q4 and '21Q1? Vast unknown, but right now that looks grim.
@@blazetrader Didn't happen, did it? I have learned from this last year. Price action speaks, and ignore prognostications. Wait for quality set ups and trade them. No biases, ever. Thanks for your work.
Larry is slowly becoming one of my favorite contrarian indicators. Lol.
@@briansmith2836 he's had a couple misses as well..like we all do at times..I just am very firm in the camp that we aren't out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination with the fed saving the day..but I still respect his analysis nonetheless.. I just have tons of technical indicators and charts that paint a completely different picture from a long term basis. But we can always agree to disagree. 👍
@@briansmith2836 I recall he made a pretty bullish stance right before the March crash. I'd have to go back and look. We've had some back and forth about it... And its all good.. disagreement is what makes a market. 👍
@@briansmith2836 this year. I believe it was his video right before the 3.17 one he put out a month or two before.. I just disagreed on his long term thesis that he had is all. His call on the bottom was good enough to warrant kudos.. but as I said...we aren't out of the woods yet. That's all.
@@briansmith2836 fair enough. No harm no foul.. Larry has a general view of the market I disagree with.. it is what it is. We get to agree to disagree. Take care.
Forward p/e is NOT 15. The S&P earnings estimates 12 months out, are around 140-145, leaving the forward to p/e around 19. Has this guy been living in a cave the last few months? LMAO
This analysis is wrong on too many levels to count.
Just look at today's charts, Larry was 100% right
@@blazetrader no, I think you was right, thats another guy thought you was wrong