Thanks for your great report, and thanks especially for highlighting Kansas! We are a significant part of the breadbasket of the world but even with great management and fantastic technology weather has the biggest influence on yields.
Thanks for that KS deep dive! Never seen it presented that way, i knew we had many multi- year droughts but that really showcased the cyclical nature of the dry years and how they daisy chain. I consider my area Kamsasish being 4 miles away from stateline. Its literally insane how western/central Kansas has had much more consistent rains than the eastern areas last two years which is backwards from climate standpoint. Last night huge storms out there in western KS and nothing can survive to eastern portion of state where in wet years it just rolls all the way across. Happy for them but so odd the rains want to stay out there in desert country Hoping this weekend pans out the crops are what they are and past point of return, but pastures sure need recovery
Eric thanks for the good video. I do hope that we get some rain in the next 7 days. I was told that not all La Nina's and El Nino's act the same . Analogs help yes they give an idea but there is so much uncertainty in what will actually happen.
Thank you for the Kansas information. Up to 36 days without a drop of rain today in SE Kansas. And 3.5 years since big widespread flood type rain. There are many ponds that have been VERY low for over 3 years now, and many that have dried completely, and I wonder if they will ever be full again. My brother-in-law works in crop insurance and he gave me some interesting, depressing information. The last ten year average for annual rainfall total is 17% lower than historical average. We are currently setting on 27" of rain for the year. This year is MUCH better than the previous 3, but we are still WAY behind not only the 10 year average, and we are WAY, WAY, WAY behind historical average. We would have to get 15" of rain before December 31st to hit historical average, and this has been our BEST year in the last 4. Something has changed. I'd like to believe your thoughts on cycles is real, but I think we're beyond that at this point. I can tell you this, I had an offer to stay in Dodge City 25 years ago after an internship. I would have been paid VERY well, but there was no way I was going to stay out there, because I love trees and rain. I'm beginning to become more and more worried SE Kansas will look like SW Kansas in my lifetime. Why??? No one has an answer for that.
I started watching Feb of 23, waiting to see when we were going to have drought busting weather in SWNE & have been following ever since... your forecasts have been great in giving a fairly accurate heads up on fire weather days ahead of when I would typically see cautions posted. Do you plan to put a link on your website for the 500mb Height Anomalies? No biggie, if not, I personally find them handy to learn with.
The Mississippi will be coming up over the next week. I live where three of the headwaters of the Tennessee river are located and it is about to flood here.
The precipitation data for Kansas was interesting. Thank you for sharing it. Could you please answer a question about La Nina winters in the Canadian Prairies? Your models show that they bring more precipitation and cold to that area, and yet the 2021/22/23 La Ninas brought a lot of winter drought to the Prairies. Hence, the devasting 2023 wildfire season. And except for a few shots of cold, the winters were mild. The recent El Nino actually brought more precipitation than the La Ninas. All La Ninas are different, but what caused those 3 to bring a lot of drought rather than the usual precipitation?
Here in the Northeast, the Nino/Nina teleconnection- only one out of many observable to us- has become so unpredictable in its season long effects as to be an irrelevancy.
It seems to me that Kansas's dry cycles follow the solar cycles. It seems that when the solar cycle is transitioning from a minimum to a maximum, that is when we get our dryer cycles here. Is there any data to back this up? Thanks for your videos. I look forward to them every morning!
The cyclical nature of wet vs. dry years in Kansas is interesting. Does it line up with anything like el niño or la niña years? If not, what could be causing it? I can't imagine that many other places around the US follow such a well-defined pattern.
I live in southern New Mexico. Last year we were supposed to have a wetter pattern and it was the driest hotest year in a long time. And we had absolutely no monsoon. I don't have any faith in these models longer range or the el nino/la nina predictions.
Since El Niño was absolutely a non-factor for us last year in SE Kansas, maybe La Niña will be a non-factor as well???? We won't be so lucky, once again proving that wet forecasts ALWAYS have more tendency to be inaccurate than dry forecasts. Forecasting dry weather for us is quite easy; don't even have to look at a map!!!
La Nina is rarely good for us We are in the same precip zone, what happens to you very often is coming up my way from SW. Makes sense that when you are dry, i am dry too. Dont worry about this pattern being the new normal, we are just being bit hard by a 3 year dry period and if the cycles are a thing we are headed back to a wetter stretch. Hang on
Your daily analysis is much appreciated! I have shared it with my colleagues in the Environmental Studies department at UI Springfield!
I grew up in Rochester! I used to be a ball boy for the Sangamon State Prairie Stars when I was a kid. My family still lives there too!
Thanks for your great report, and thanks especially for highlighting Kansas! We are a significant part of the breadbasket of the world but even with great management and fantastic technology weather has the biggest influence on yields.
Thanks for that KS deep dive! Never seen it presented that way, i knew we had many multi- year droughts but that really showcased the cyclical nature of the dry years and how they daisy chain.
I consider my area Kamsasish being 4 miles away from stateline.
Its literally insane how western/central Kansas has had much more consistent rains than the eastern areas last two years which is backwards from climate standpoint. Last night huge storms out there in western KS and nothing can survive to eastern portion of state where in wet years it just rolls all the way across. Happy for them but so odd the rains want to stay out there in desert country
Hoping this weekend pans out the crops are what they are and past point of return, but pastures sure need recovery
great report, thank you!!!!!
Thankful some of francine dumped great rain on us in southeastern most Illinois. Around 2 inches in spots. Great germination in a few spots
Eric thanks for the good video. I do hope that we get some rain in the next 7 days. I was told that not all La Nina's and El Nino's act the same . Analogs help yes they give an idea but there is so much uncertainty in what will actually happen.
Thank you for the Kansas information. Up to 36 days without a drop of rain today in SE Kansas. And 3.5 years since big widespread flood type rain. There are many ponds that have been VERY low for over 3 years now, and many that have dried completely, and I wonder if they will ever be full again. My brother-in-law works in crop insurance and he gave me some interesting, depressing information. The last ten year average for annual rainfall total is 17% lower than historical average. We are currently setting on 27" of rain for the year. This year is MUCH better than the previous 3, but we are still WAY behind not only the 10 year average, and we are WAY, WAY, WAY behind historical average. We would have to get 15" of rain before December 31st to hit historical average, and this has been our BEST year in the last 4. Something has changed. I'd like to believe your thoughts on cycles is real, but I think we're beyond that at this point. I can tell you this, I had an offer to stay in Dodge City 25 years ago after an internship. I would have been paid VERY well, but there was no way I was going to stay out there, because I love trees and rain. I'm beginning to become more and more worried SE Kansas will look like SW Kansas in my lifetime. Why??? No one has an answer for that.
I started watching Feb of 23, waiting to see when we were going to have drought busting weather in SWNE & have been following ever since... your forecasts have been great in giving a fairly accurate heads up on fire weather days ahead of when I would typically see cautions posted. Do you plan to put a link on your website for the 500mb Height Anomalies? No biggie, if not, I personally find them handy to learn with.
The Mississippi will be coming up over the next week. I live where three of the headwaters of the Tennessee river are located and it is about to flood here.
The precipitation data for Kansas was interesting. Thank you for sharing it.
Could you please answer a question about La Nina winters in the Canadian Prairies? Your models show that they bring more precipitation and cold to that area, and yet the 2021/22/23 La Ninas brought a lot of winter drought to the Prairies. Hence, the devasting 2023 wildfire season. And except for a few shots of cold, the winters were mild. The recent El Nino actually brought more precipitation than the La Ninas. All La Ninas are different, but what caused those 3 to bring a lot of drought rather than the usual precipitation?
Here in the Northeast, the Nino/Nina teleconnection- only one out of many observable to us- has become so unpredictable in its season long effects as to be an irrelevancy.
It seems to me that Kansas's dry cycles follow the solar cycles. It seems that when the solar cycle is transitioning from a minimum to a maximum, that is when we get our dryer cycles here. Is there any data to back this up? Thanks for your videos. I look forward to them every morning!
The cyclical nature of wet vs. dry years in Kansas is interesting. Does it line up with anything like el niño or la niña years? If not, what could be causing it? I can't imagine that many other places around the US follow such a well-defined pattern.
I think it is possible the sun is the major factor 😮
Can you focus on Ukraine/russia wheat belt one of these videos? Sept/oct is there planting timeframe just like United States.
I can't seem to find the right path in the ag-wx website to get to the heights. How do I navigate to those upper air forecasts?
www.ag-wx.com/conus_fcst.html#500
I live in southern New Mexico. Last year we were supposed to have a wetter pattern and it was the driest hotest year in a long time. And we had absolutely no monsoon. I don't have any faith in these models longer range or the el nino/la nina predictions.
Since El Niño was absolutely a non-factor for us last year in SE Kansas, maybe La Niña will be a non-factor as well???? We won't be so lucky, once again proving that wet forecasts ALWAYS have more tendency to be inaccurate than dry forecasts. Forecasting dry weather for us is quite easy; don't even have to look at a map!!!
La Nina is rarely good for us
We are in the same precip zone, what happens to you very often is coming up my way from SW. Makes sense that when you are dry, i am dry too.
Dont worry about this pattern being the new normal, we are just being bit hard by a 3 year dry period and if the cycles are a thing we are headed back to a wetter stretch. Hang on
@@johnmullies1807 I sincerely hope you're right, but we're beyond 3 years at this point; although, not by a lot.
I saw that wet Eruro model makes me scratch my head too. Too many promises of good rains turns out to be sprinkles or nothing at all.
Philly CheeseSteak sandwich!!!