Should Polls Be Banned? | Question Time
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- Опубліковано 24 лип 2024
- What happens at Number 10 when there is a change of government? Are polls a help or hinderance to the parties pre-election day? What are the benefits of Joe Biden staying on as Presidential nominee?
Rory and Alastair answer all these questions and more in this week's Question Time.
00:00 Intro
00:33 What happens BTS when there is a change in government/Prime Minister
05:57 What will happen to the Tory party and the right wing press?
10:49 What is the argument for Biden staying on?
12:13 How does the USA end up with such inadequate leaders?
15:02 Why are universities not in the election debate?
18:39 Should polls be banned once a general election is called?
20:47 Who is Rory voting for?
21:38 Outro
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No. But they should be taken with a pinch of salt. The only poll that matters is the one in the booths on election day.
The world and a man KNOW that the result of this GE is a forgone conclusion. The only thing in doubt is the size of Starmer's majority.
Postal votes? Not wishing to be pedantic, but a ton of people voted some time ago.
@@kurman4749 People making that assumption are the people who will screw it all up.
Such a cliche. Its done with roughly a 200 seat majority
Polls will never be taken with a 'pinch of salt'. No one does that, not really, and no one will, not really. People shouldn't be told whom they are expected to vote for or what the result will be.
Thank you both for keeping me sane throughout this election campaign 🎉
Polls can easily be used to influence behaviour. In their current form, they do far more harm than good.
The NHS isn't so hard to fix. The (highly indebted) Italians spend $500 more per head, have twice as many nurses (per person) four times as many doctors, twice as many acute beds and a third more beds. The UK is one of the most underfunded national health services in the west. The British just need to decide what they want to spend their money on and moan less.
We have a lots of locum GP who can't get a job because the NHS won't employ them.
Not claiming that my personal experience is a reliable measure, but having lived in both Italy and the UK, I would rather take the risk of relying on the NHS, even in its present state. Moving more money towards preventive care and attitude change in younger generation is the way forward. For Labour this would mean treating all constituencies in a similar manner, and deal with Wales and Scotland not as exceptions.
The Italians have a better educated populace and more students capable of doing the work required in healthcare and science. The UK has a terrible education system that produces plenty of idiots and bon mot spouting classicists but not many useful people.
i dont think i can spend any more money on anything otherwise i might aswell sign on the dole.... The rich of this country need to bare some burden now..... if they want to leave the country so be it i dont care we can graft our way out.
The GP are also paid by the SSN, and are not private enterprises like the UK.
I think another issue with the USA is the house of representatives is elected every 2 years, how are you meant to do anything in that time
Yeah the idea of midterms is absurd. I think I remember something along the lines of all incumbent presidents lose seats in midterms, so all it does is frustrate the process of change after only 2 years in office.
I am not sure. Maybe we should have a poll to ascertain what people think.
“Among the people who responded to our survey, 99% say they love answering surveys”
I really enjoyed that one. Packet full of facts and interesting snippets and soundbites. Thought-provoking. Now all, VOTE.
My dream government for U.K.would be Rory leading a Labour/Green coalition. I know it's incongruous but it's what the country needs a leader to restore integrity and ministers picked from a wide selection, on competence and compassion.
What worries me most is the modern obsession with opinon data surveys. It pulls politicians into following public opinion rather than educating and leading the public.
i get your point but they arent kings, they serve US. they are supposed to listen to US and represent US. its not their job to tell us what we want.
@@kanedNunableYes, but it leads to politicians just going with the flow of often ill informed and unthought through opinions rather than presenting a well thought out and informed case. It's taking the easy route to winning power - what populists do - but leads to bad government. Unfortunately our data driven world encourages this.
@@kanedNunable It is not just the politicians job to listen but to lead, it is their job to develop policies and show the people which policies are best for them, not blindly follow what is most popular even if it leads to bad outcomes. You wouldn't apply this logic to other proffesionals that work for you, you wouldn't tell your attorney how they have to defend you, you let them do their job and follow their advice (until they prove to be incompetent).
The problem is that these days it seems that "opinon data surveys" are a replacement for MP's actually have a connection with their constituents.
I picked up Why Politics Matters for my granddaughter today. She’s going to love it.😻
What's Rory's choice down the Pub?
He was proud to be backing Gillian "no one says good job" Keagan the other day. He will be backing Tories always. Shame on him.
Shirley Temple
He looks like a Baileys guy.
Carlsberg special brew
Buckfast.
On the eve of the UK election, the New York Times published a piece by Josh Holder and Ademola Bello titled "The Conservatives Have Run Britain for 14 Years. How Has That Worked Out?". * The article charted the following from 2010 to mid 2024: Average Productivity Growth, Average Weekly Earnings adjusted for inflation, Britain's debt as a share of GDP, Taxation as a share of GDP, The number of people waiting for hospital treatment, the share of cancer patients who start treatment within two months of diagnosis, the number of armed forces personnel as well as police officers, annual net immigration, the asylum backlog, rates of homelessness, student debt levels and overall crime rate. Judging from the comments posted online, perhaps a bit of a surprise for many NYT readers, although I am fairly certain that most followers of The Rest of Politics wouldn't be surprised at all.
* Not very well.
Never take any datasets that begin in 2010 seriously
@@Dan_1348 why?
@@FireflyOnTheMoon Because to judge the government accurately you need to be able to see the trend before they took office. In the case of GDP/capita and average wage in comparison to the USA, we fell behind them in 2000s. Also we did not recover from 2008 the same way that they did. Charts that start in 2010 are often just obscuring immediate impacts of the 2008 crash
Sorry Alistair, that's a proper 'Tory' jacket. 😂
in response to the title: no. the media needs to do a better job and actually focus on the policy of the political parties far more! banning polling is putting a band-aid on the flesh wound of our inadequate media
The reason why Starmer is so cautious is because of press and TV bias...
And because he hasn't got much backbone....
Dont trust him 1 bit
Who can be surprised after watching how the media rinsed Corbyn? He wasn't perfect by any stretch but he was vilified far more than necessary in my opinion, whilst the likes of Johnson got away with saying whatever they liked.
Labour have been so careful to fight off the unfunded spending claims that plagued Corbyn's campaign.
@@sunseeker9581 I couldnt care less - just want rid of the current Tory criminal cartel - what they have done to this country is beyond the pale. A vote for the Conservatives is simply a vote for a Criminal Cartel
@@tiermacgirl A Tory Vote is a vote for a Criminal Cartel, end of discussion, have a very good day and I hope you remember Johnson said Let the bodies pile high as he throw 30,000 of our grandparents to the wolves and partied whilst enriching their friends and donors with our money which will have to be repaid over the next 100 years
The only poll that counts is tomorrow’s.
It is already done and dusted, my friend. There is not the slightest doubt about that.
@@robertwatson9940 that comment has aged well 🤣
Well after all the counting .
London had 9 Conservative MP s in London.Still has 9 MP s.This election changes nothing.We still getting charged GBP 12.50 to drive to work.Or go shopping.Khan for a another 4 years.
Rory's hair looks very good. Has he had a haircut? Or has his hair just been combed. Or is it the different angle of the camera. This is very important.
Working in HE I can tell you that university senior management ran head first into this trap by the Tories. The Tories gave them increased fees and then removed the student cap. This basically created a moral hazard where every university's leadership looked at their peers and decided to recruit like mad. The expectation that fees must be increased with inflation and/or no govt would let the biggest universities fail because of their significance to regional economies outside of London.
I remember when Brexit was happening, and also demographic changes, my local union was warning management to be careful but instead leadership decided to double its size in 5 years. I think any bailout of the sector must be predicated on the return of the cap and sound finance, otherwise universities will just start reinflating the bubble they created because senior management are empire building.
I know this summer if you have a pulse, a post-16 qualification and haven't previously used your student finance you will easily get on a degree as a UK student. This is not hyperbole - all across the sector management are lowering entry tariffs and telling staff to recruit or start getting ready for redundancies. When you try to marketise education you create incentives for growth not an improvement in quality. A university degree is not like buying tyres for a car but our current system treats them in much the same way.
It makes me sad the Yorkshire Party is never mentioned
I would happily pay a bit more tax if I thought things would actually get fixed.
I'm in the same boat, the problem is I have little confidence they actually will. It's spectacular how much money UK governments are able to spend while delivering so little.
China would have built HS2 in less than a year but its a 20 - 30 year project in the UK with multiple billions being spent long before a single mile of track is laid.
Voting politicians out of office is a very costly and imprecise way for the public to express its wants and needs. Polls are important for politicians to make sure they don’t fall too far out of touch. (Yes, politicians are already plenty out of touch, but it could be so much worse)
Polling is broken. No need to ban polling. Just point out its brokenness over and over no matter whether any particular poll favors you or not
on the list of things that should be banned, polls sit A LOT lower down the list than #WarCriminals having their own podcast!
We already use Citizen Assemblies in Scotland.
But you consistently run a 10% budget deficit. You make it sound like the Scots know how to run a more evolved political system
Rory, the best Prime Minister Britain never had.
Yes. I’ve been saying it for some time.
Yes they should be as the change people opinions
I know that with the level of majority that the Labour party are likely to win this election with, there is no reason that they need to, but (given that they will win with a huge majority) is it not time that they reach out to some central opposition MPs and others (like Alastair & Rory) and show a degree of magnaminity. It would bring some more balance and might even introduce some of the 'radical' ideas that you both talk about. It would at least open up to debate in policy making.
The Labour party could do a lot worse that reaching out to either/both of you to bring some common sense to politics, whether as 'special advisors' (god I hate that term) or even just as sounding boards. Look forward to watching your coverage tomorrow.
Yes
17:45 it's not misleading to say that the tax burden is high. Sure, it's not high compared to some other countries, but that's not the relevant comparison people are making. We're saying that our tax burden here is higher than it has been in the past.
I don't think they should be banned at all. That's an overly simplistic approach to solving a complex problem. If you want to solve the problem of group think, and other issues arising from poll obsession, you'll have to find a budget to EDUCATE PEOPLE OUT OF THAT DULLARDRY!
Banning things because people aren't educated or clever enough to use them for what they are for, isn't the right response. You educate problems like that out of existence. Its the only correct answer, and therefore the only acceptable one.
Should polls be banned?
Bit xenophobic 😒😂🤭
Polls not Poles silly.
My immediate thought too 😂
@@andrewmacnab9069 suspect he knew.
@@UTubeSL 😜
How can we vote tactically without polls ? For me, ( accurate ) information is always useful.
Rory's point about taxes and the tax burden ignores massive rises in council tax, as well as an increase in the number of people paying down a student loan (1.8 million according to a report this week) which is effectively a graduate tax. Both have a dispropoportionate effect on middle earners. VAT has also stayed at 20% since Brown put it up - again a tax that disproportionately affects low and middle earners.
Then you've got oddities like the child benefit cap that creates ridiculous marginal rates for families. Not technically a tax but it must feel like one.
Put it all together and you realise that there's a lot of financial pressure from the state on 25-45s as they try to hold down jobs, raise their kids and keep a roof over their heads. The tax burden might not feel as high if you're a student or retired, but it does if you're working.
The problem the massive rises in council tax mask the way funding for local authorities are done. If you look at the breakdown of your council tax you will see how little of all the council services it covers. Simply put in the 80s the Tories decided to cut local authorities at the knees and control the purse strings. Central grants are how most local services are funded and sadly the Tories have cut that massively in both real and nominal terms since 2010. Initially you might not have noticed it because councils had some reserves and assets they could sell. However, with the increasing social care costs that councils must pick up (it is one of their statutory obligations) and the fact that the Tories basically keep kicking adult social care funding into the long grass has meant an ever decreasing pool of money for everything else.
I encourage you to read your local authority's financial statements. I promise you don't need to have an accounting background. Just read the narratives at the front and look at the section which just lists revenue sources and the list of expenses. Do that over the last 14 years, bearing in mind inflation, and I think you will have a rather more sympathetic view of the difficulties of local govt.
P.s. I am not saying there isn't any waste but it isn't like the right wing media would have you believe. Councils aren't closing libraries because the council leaders went on a fact finding mission to the Bahamas.
@@ProffyChaos To be clear, I'm not disputing the reasons for the council tax rises or unsympathetic to the problems that councils face. I fully agree they're due to central funding cuts. (Funnily enough I am actually sad enough to read my council's statements!)
What I'm highlighting is the fact that these are still tax rises, that they still hit low and median earners hard, and that suggesting the tax burden has fallen because central taxes like IC, NICs have been reduced is therefore incorrect. It's essentially an accounting trick by the Tories - cut central funding to help keep headline tax rates down, but shift the burden onto LAs to force them to up council tax and business rates. It's also highly political - LAs in urban areas that lean left typically face much higher care (adult social care and children's services) commitments, which as you say they are statutorily obliged to fund.
@@thomasash1346 I do get your point and it is well made. Bloody difficult mess.
People who do polls are the ones interested in politics. The amount of people who will decide when they are stood with pencil in hand is huge and impossible to predict.
The same polls who ask 100 people for their opinion and some how the same 100 people’s opinion will account for the opinion of an entire country 🙄
On banning the publication of polls, I think that would be a terrible idea. Why should the campaigners get to know more than the public.
Rory Stewart is very lucky to find airtime with Alaister Cambell who is literally a royalty in British politics.
War criminal more like.
@@roydini1 100% agreed (alongside Tony) but still a big name in British politics.
@@roydini1You have to be charged and be found guilty to be a war criminal.
Doggie dossier man.Wonder how many people died in Iraq.Because of his man's lies.
@Absuk007 Stewart is the only one of the two to have served as an MP and minister of state though, thus elected. That counts for a hell of a lot.
Polls should be released on a Friday only.
I like what was said by Dan Pfeiffer at Pod Save America. Polls are snap shots in time and are not reflective of an outcome that is sure to happen.
A very interesting point indeed! But polls are part of the electoral process. Without it, people even politicians couldn't determine whether now is the time for an election. So I'd have to say no.
In my country, many commentators are pushing for the opposite, lifting the ban on polls a week before the election. But of course, they just want to have more material to comment on. I personally find it hard to take a stance on the topic. On the one side it's not like the polls from previous weeks weren't already influencing voters on their own, the one week ban feels arbitrary; on the other, having them banned adds some intrige and does not do much harm.
Banning polls is a moronic idea as long as we have a first past the post system. Someone living in a marginal constituency deserves the right to understand public sway before an election in order to vote tactically.
All the polls should have to include the agreement that the commissioner of the poll agrees to pay the Electoral Commission £1000 for every 1% inaccuracy of each poll's figures. It would help pay for this important government body.
Most of this campaign has involved people discussing the polls and very little time devoted to actual policies.
Polls dominate the discussion partly because we have first past the post and so tactical voting is necessary to make a vote count.
Regarding media ownership I think any policies to reduce the concentration of ownership would be great.
The True and Fair Party advocates for Citizens Assemblies to address things like PR, automatic voter registration, compulsory voting, among other topics. They also focus on parliamentary and government process reforms.... T&F stands in only 4 constituencies, unfortunately.
Re polling. Remember from 2016 the media just seemed to concentrate on the polling and the Brexit vote ended up more like a horse race than any discussion of facts or merits. It's just lazy but does mean they have something new to talk about every day. Nobody was educated or informed.
In this prison. You said it, man.
I've heard very little about Ireland
No more layers of Gov, please Rory. Fiefdoms is all they are; for the chattering classes.
what?
Whether polls are accurate or not, I think it would make for a way more exciting night if their weren't exit polls and you just got the results one seat at a time
one more thing, someone said to me the other day 'google' is more than the value of the entire ftse 100, something is wrong
Nope. I need to know where to put my vote to best effect. With polls we’re condemned to the status quo.
I thought it was "should pots be banned"
Journalists couldn't live without them. Polls do have an effect on the outcome in the same way as in the world of quantum physics the observer alters the observed object.
Careful, Alastair ... Farage was wearing the same jacket earlier! I'm sure you wear it better, but still ..!
Do not underestimate the power of polls to influence an outcome. There are a lot of people who don't vote for the lesser parties because they feel it is a vote wasted. Also there are those who always want to be on the winning team. Most people today are busy on other things and are not engaged enough to read the small print to find out what each party is about and the party's real unvarnished credibility.
Day 1: no changes lads, continue the tory policies, tory spending plans, and lets get our bank account details swapped in for some of that tory corruption too got a lot of 'consultancy' that needs doing and wow wouldn't you know it I know a good think tank...
Wish there was a way to track how much business 'party donors' end up getting amplified and reflected back at them like someone needs to scrape companies house and build a data set of companies and people then scrape the electoral commission donor lists and match people then run a bot that ingests as much news about awarded government contracts as possible and matches them all up and lets you calculate the p value that Labour is as corrupt as the tories
Polls do have an outsize effect and really shouldn't be allowed.
Doggie dossier man.What a lier.
Polls are very unfair, just in India they have gone wrong with a margin of 25 percent and it makes up voters mind before getting into the party policy
I think banning polls is just treating the symptom rather than the cause (FPTP). Also a lack of polling could allow the media to warp the narrative around the campaign.
Is this the special 1970s studio?
Rory, it’s ’fine-toothed’ comb
Polls should be banned in the UK. Until then, no one should respond to polling questions. Let's put the pollsters out of business. Governments should just worry about devising the best policies. The public will respond favourably over time if the policies are right. Good government is all the voters really want.
We should really make that a democratic decision, I suggest we have a poll on it.
Can Rory go back to Tories one day with the knowledge he voted Labour in 2024?
Citizens assemblies yes, good suggestion, Rory. Build on that with workers co-ops (funded by taxing ASSETS not wages) and workers representation on boards of all businesses with over 100 workers. Add to that more localisation with local suggestion points for ideas for local projects and citizen awards for chosen suggested projects. Make people feel valuable members of their local communitues. Extend this to even those so called elites who would have to have their arm twisted on their assets to fund workers co-ops. A citizens award for them would be so much more meaningful than a place in the House of Lords for wasting their money by lobbying. The whole culture could be changed to one of true philanthropy. Its that pink jacket Alastair, it brings to mind the fact that there is little distance between good sound ideas and flights of imagination. It just needs someone to see what is possible when the right frame of mind is engaged.
sort of agree with chap below, polls are always wrong, there is still, the no one votes tory till they get in the poll booth and they just can't change. Starmer scares me a bit, coz like them all stands for nothing. We are not in a great position as a country, but there are no ideas, I count myself amongst that, can't think of a way to greener pastures, but we are a country of ideas so hope springs eternal.
Talking about democracy and entertaining the government banning information from the people
FFS now Rory as well their is not such thing as “The Welsh assembly”🤦♂️ These people are supposedly informed about politics yet constantly misname it. It’s the Senedd/Senedd Cymru or The Welsh Parliament.
It's nice to see my previous point being discussed. Public polls should be banned during election periods.
You get them in the high who will you vote for instead of say none of yours, I lie.
Has any US president ever retired while in office
Nixon.
Polls need to go really. Affects voting intentions too much in a bad way, especially when the outcome is very clear like in this election. Take Labour in 2015 where the anti Labour SNP coalition possibility vote may well have won it for Cameron. Without the polls that argument would’ve been harder, and Labour might have done better or even won. Not bad in theory and they have some benefits but it feels like there are too many unintended consequences
How exactly did getting 1 Conservative MP from Scotland in 2015 help towards causing a UK Conservative majority?
And why be terrified of the SNP? Are there that many people down South in favour of prescription fees, bridge tolls, and tuition fees?
is Rory still going to vote Lib Dem ? that was his call the last video I watched !
Tory my arse lol
The tories have no hope plus the Labour Party will not ruin the country or the economy they will put it back on track
And allow any Muslim migrant to come and live here for free paid for by you and me and they will never have to work.. they will outbreed the British in a few generations.. also I’m not a fan of teaching young kids this absolute nonsense that is LGBT.. it’s sickening.. but if that’s what you want then hey, go ahead.. I’m voting reform
Hello all! Of course i would like to watch tomorrow's election coverage by Alastair and Rory. However, i live outside of the UK and Channel 4 isn't part of my cable package... Will this be streamed here or elsewhere?
You could try a VPN and watch online maybe? 😊
I would entirely not endorse in any way getting a free vpn, connecting to a UK server and watching live on the channel 4 app. That would be a disgraceful course of action
Nord VPN may be able to help , if not if you use a platform like "discord" and have a friend who lives in the UK that can stream it for you from there that works aswell
@@bigchinkid9052 Yes, truly disgraceful. Possible. Easy even. But disgraceful.
@@bigchinkid9052😂😂
The Yorkshire party.
Dont forget to vote .As there are lots of people away watching football.And on holiday in Far East.
Nobody will be happier than me with a Labour landslide but the swing required is way to big imo.
this election would be a coin toss without reform , to me thats a huge worry
Asking opinions might be valid but predicting events is another matter and is not helpful . .
Totally missing the point as usual, the question on the transition with respect to civil servants and security services was all about stuff like the nuclear codes and other secret information
No, we should regulate the press properly and give them proper freedom instead of billionaires running their wanted narrative.
Neither the Labour or Conservative Party are fit to govern but to the politically oblivious they’re the only two choices.
I keep an open mind and change opinions based on new facts and evidence, so if you believe either the Labour or Conservative Party can enact real positive change then please respond with why you feel this way as I’d be interested in your point of view!
Starmer just ruled out the UK ever rejoining the EU, customs union or single market. Another, if one was needed why NOT to vote Labour tomorrow if you are pro-EU. Vote LibDem, Green, SNP or Plaid tomorrow. #notolaboursupermajority
Because voting Green will get the UK back into the EU? Really? The only thing that will get the UK back into the EU will be the passage of time - about 25 years.
.... and FYI there is no such thing as a 'super majority' in UK politics.
The Biden question there was a recent poll where Michelle Obama is polling better than Biden so could there be a possibility of the Democrats asking & replacing Biden with her.
She's got more sense
Definitely…… Poll out today says she would beat Trump by a huge margin. So many women votes hate Trump and love her. Also bookies odd on her winning shrinking big time !
Odd question but how is the transition from one PM to the next? Has RS already moved out?
Bright, flashing lights, dramatic music and ...oh wait that's Dr Who.
Probably already in California by now
They literally have the removal vans roll in as soon as the result is clear. Leadership contests are able to build in a bit more leeway with timing, but general elections are brutal. Of course in Rishi's case having several other homes will lessen the impact on his family.
I’ve never been included in a poll
That is becouse you do not want to be included
Funds raised for Biden can't be transferred to someone else..
Why is everything in the studio crooked? Because Britain?
They are filming in a different location, as they are preparing for the Channel 4 election night show
Not just poles but also the Russians and Latvians as well
Truss left after 49 days due to horrific consequences of the unfounded mini budget
Sunak needs to shut up, the Labour manifesto is fully funded and the initial planned steps have already been announced!
These media comments, just like PMQ responses show how ill informed Sunak is, a terrible state of affairs for a PM!
Listening to Rory talking about the manpower shortages at Heathrow, for example and on the other hand you have a whole load of racists desperate to stop immigration 😆
STARMER WILL WRECK BRITAIN IN 100 DAYS - That's interesting. It only took Truss about 40...😅
In 10 years time the Presidential candidates will be Musk and Zuck
Hah. You think trains and planes are bad. Try getting a bus outside of London. Seriously, though, I don't envy Labour the job of fixing our national infrastructure, but it has to be done.
But labour has the bbc doesn’t it.
No.
All this talk of banning polls is horribly authoritarian. If you don't like the focus on polling, then seek out other news sources. You don't get to ban people from conducting scientific research just because you find it boring or unhelpful.
If they're just doing scientific research, they can keep the results to themselves - at least until after the election.
"Scientific research" is a rather grand term for much of what passes for polling.
@@Ruffian_Xion Hell no. You also don’t get to ban people from publishing their research just because you find it inconvenient.
@@martinradcliffe4798 That’s irrelevant. Just because you find someone’s research methodology lacking, you don’t get to ban that entire field from publishing.
@@andybrice2711 No-one is talking about banning people from publishing research. No-one is going to do any meaningful research into polling results in a few days anyway. Results of polls are published as quickly as possible in order that they are meaningful (for a given value of 'meaningful') and that's why they are being churned out continuously. Scientific research doesn't need to be trotted out every week.
These 2 should be banned