We've All Been Fooled
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- Опубліковано 10 січ 2022
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There’s not one sports analyst I can think of that’s better then jimmy. Your more then just a sports channel your giving us elite level journalism and we appreciate you!
what's good jidion
You also watch jxmy too? Damn
JIDON
Ayo is demarcus cousins lll 🔥
Geeee
That Josh Giddy weaknesses report had me dead
“Yeah he can’t shoot dribble defend or jump but other than that he’s great”
weakness : basketball
@@lordarianec7057 put some respect on his name!
The guy that made it also is really good at scouting rookies though
@@averagesixersfan9778 well he was right about giddey being great at least lol
Weaknesses Basketball
The huge problem with this type of analysis is the good ole‘ causation vs correlation. We don‘t know if him getting a triple-double made his team win more often or if his team winning made him get a triple-double more often. It‘s most likely something in between but we don‘t really know if his performance was the deciding factor.
You sair it all. To validate Causation x correlation is everything to draw conclusions.
Correlation can only happen if every variable is repeatable. NBA games have too many variables for that. It can go as deep as crowd noise and relative humidity, all those things have an effect on wins. The wins are enough because wins are the only stat that matters. If said player(s) can cause a win with a stat line and it is a fairly reliable statistic who cares.
@@plusplusgive with enough variables you will always find correlations. I mean it makes sense that if his team is playing well that he would score more points, make more rebounds and especially assists.
@@schraderclemens6122 in a way you are right but remember the object of correlation is to guarantee predictable results. In the case of basketball one person having a triple can mean a lot of things but it does not guarantee a victory. If a win was guaranteed by a stat line it would be what all teams focus on. For example: turnovers are the closest things I can think of that correlate to losing, points are the closest stat to correlating to winning.
This inherit unpredictability is what makes games fun to watch.
only came to see this comment, and it was the top one, thanks.
I think triple doubles are more common simply due to having more highly competent shooting and scoring teammates and also 3 pointers causing longer rebounds for guards and forwards to grab.
Also the fact that Steve Adam's has been caught giving free rebounds.
@@ThePsychosis92 Steven Adams man always a team player.
@@bearwithme9433deadliest screen in NBA history!
plus 3pt shots give a lot more opportunities for passes so it makes sense
l remember watching this man’s videos leaving middle school. i’m a freshman in college now and he still gets better with every single video. ur a legend jimmy
Hi🤩💜💙🧡 Where are you from???
Same here man, jimmys goated
Of course the Vids are getting better, Jimmy has to compensate for the loss of trapsax
ua-cam.com/video/SX1shBkYzU4/v-deo.html yo
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That clip where Russ walks away when bron is looking at the stat sheet is legendary
facts
Facts
fActs
He dont want to be apart of LEGM BACK AT IT as chris smoove would say that why he dipped
seriously Bron has the power to sack him
I'm a Wizards fan and I watched Westbrook closer for a year. He put up some of the greatest numbers I've seen in the NBA like the 20+ assists and 20+ rebounds against the Pacers and he can do it in his sleep. I think we're the team with the fastest pace last year because when Westbrook grabbed the rebound, I already expect Rui dunking on the other end. You can say he chase uncontested defensive rebounds like in free throws but he's also one of the best offensive rebounders among guards. He's jumping over seven footers.
This man must have a writing team. No way he’s this good, this consistently. Seriously, ESPN needs to hire you for a segment.
if he had at a segment on espn I might actually watch ESPN
People dont need to join ESPN to be successful, he competes with ESPN, on his own, and that is dope.
Jxmy needs to do ESPN's 30 for 30.
@@TheNamesDitto that would be dope. 30 for 30s are some of my favorite sports content.
this that wsu journalism degree yahear #gocougs
One thing I think is overlooked in this video is the tie between assists and team shooting percentage. You’re more likely to get more assists if your team is
shooting well, and if you’re shooting well you’re more likely to win. So in theory you could have the same output across two games, but depending on how your teammates shoot, you will or will not get the triple double. So it may not just be triple doubles impacting the increased win percentage, but more generally shot percentage.
thats facts. without your team shooting with efficiency you don’t get a triple double. the same way goes for rebounds, if the other team shots are efficient you wont get that many rebounds
But understand that not all pass requires good shooting. I mean it's NBA they all know how to shoot and when to shoot but the case here is how they gonna free to shoot. It will go down to team chemistry, play execution also a players decision-making and of course how good a pass is. And good passing or excellent passing comes only from those talented ones
true
Great point!
Thank you :)
7:08 It's also obviously easier to record a triple double when your team is winning (like "statpadding in garbage minutes" as many people accuse him of), which is also gonna contribute a lot to that stat. I would guess that most players have better records if you only count the games they got triple doubles. It also supports the claim that he gets most of his triple doubles against weaker opponents. But yea overall his stats are not empty
The Lakers ain’t getting 60 wins this year... even if he averaged triple dub...
@@user-gc1wj8tt2p that OKC team made it to the playoffs every year he didn't average a triple double too. In fact, in every season for OKC that he didn't average a trip, they made it past the first round. Every season in which he averaged a triple double? Didn't make it out the first round. So nah man, we won't give him OKC. He's a garbage man, a stat padder, a selfish ball hog who ruins team flow because he has to both rebound AND score/assist. Essentially, he ruins teams because he can't play unless the offense is run, from rebound to bucket, through him. It's trash basketball and Jimmy should be goddamn ashamed for defending this to his impressionable audience. Nobody should ever try to replicate Westbrook's game if they actually care about good basketball or wining.
Not necessarily, because those very same garbage minutes exist for the losing team as well.
@@danielwester6913 Why wouldn’t a team with Westbrook, Harden and KD make the playoffs every year ? What a terrible argument lol
I want to start by saying I love your content and you do great work.
That said, the problem with this analysis is that it presumes because that's the win rate when he achieves a triple double, the triple double was responsible for the win. It's really hard to say that with any certainty. As an example, Westbrook is a historically poor 3-point shooter. Over the same time frame you listed, Westbrook's win percentage looks like this:
Shoots
Thank you- this is easily by far the best analysis and take, and the thing is, it’s obvious.. that’s literally what the Lakers had to force Westbrook to do (while also massively cutting down turnovers) just to have a chance to win.. and those wins are only against less than .500 teams so far
@@BlakeAlexander12 SPOT ON!!!
Great analysis. I wish you upload content discussing basketball.
Nonono, sorry, but the video author is a genius and is producing elite level journalism. He spits out facts and I eat them up, so should you. In fact, all the top comments pointing out that his methods are faulty every single video are just jealous of his success and trolling.
Gonna go eat my box of crayons now, have a pleasant day.
Watched the video and then came looking for this comment. Jimmy's videos are always well edited and entertaining, but should always be taken with a grain of salt as he tends to misinterpret his information.
I remember in one of his videos a while back he was comparing the performances of two different generations of players, but he made the mistake of using their career averages and not accounting for the fact that the older players had a dip in their numbers due to the years of playing past their prime, whereas all of the current generation were still in their prime.
Also a correlation between high rebound numbers and the rise of 3 point shooting. Because the league became so 3 pt orientated it was easier for guards to stock up on long rebounds from missed 3's
That’s a great point, I would also guarantee that Russ’s RPG are down quite abit against the better 3 point shooting teams in the league compared to the others
I´d say it should have an effect on assists too, its easier to get an assist nowadays, there are a lot of catch and shoot players nowadays, teams even make plays to give players the space to catch and shoot, players shoot a lot more than before, wich also results in more assists I would guess
@@augustogambarte4989 Yup easy to come down with the ball, have a shooter come around a off ball screen and take a shot 5 seconds into the shot clock. Even quicker if you have a numbers advantage on the break.
Definitely a factor, the game being more faster than before and more shots attempted means more rebound stat as well as assists. Having double digit statline becomes inflated basically. But the video shows that triple doubles are still good indication of a good player because they still give more winrate than having no triple double
and also higher assist number correlates with high number of shots
We should all appreciate jxmy doing all this researching just for us.
@@nuraysehum6856 bro wtf
tbh no these stats are misleading and dont tell the full story.
it’s his job 😂😂😂
@@IccDani Your name suits you
@@IccDani agree stats dont show the full story
BRODIE FOR LIFE WHATEVER YOU GUYS SAY
Alot goes into making these videos, and I love them. Thanks for the effort
Thank you! I've been saying this for a while as a Lakers fan... our issues are much BIGGER than Russ! We're old, tired, injured, lethargic on defense, not communicating well, etc. None of this is a surprise to me either. I remember the old super team Lakers in 2004 AND 2013, and injuries and chemistry were the issues there as well.
Great vid as always, Jxmy!
True
This video is lazy af, anyone who knows anything about data would find this a painfull watch
@@solo9821 you got better videos on your channel i assume ?
Lakers being old isn’t the problem anymore. They’ve already lost Rondo (35), they don’t play DJ (33) anymore and Dwight (36) is barely playing. Not to mention AD (28) and Nunn (26) are both coming back soon. The old narrative really needs to end because the only elder players still receiving high minutes are Lebron and Carmelo. People who keep complaining about their age only show me who hasn’t been paying attention since the season started. Their main issue is chemistry and injuries, they need Davis back on the floor and we all know this. They also spent their MLE on Nunn, he needs to start playing aswell.
@@solo9821 So you think that the Triple-Double correlation of those HUNDREDS of games is just... coincidence?? That's painful to hear
My main question I'm left with is this: Are teams winning more when players get a triple double, or are players finding it easier to get triple doubles against teams they're beating. Also interested in the seemingly random increase in triple doubles. Did it happen as a result of the floor being more spread out in the 3 point era as well as the fall in defensive capabilities due to foul calls? I need more graphs Jimmy; where are the graphs?
My thoughts exactly, correlation doesn‘t mean causation
Exactly what I was thinking
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If you're more about numbers of the game for proofof claims, Thinking Basketball would be a better channel for you
The pace of the game went up so there's more pts, assists and rbs to be had. Teams don't fancy fighting for offensive rbs as much thesedays meaning defensive rbs are less contested, and if you are the guy you could tell your center to fuck off just like Russ used to do. The floor is more stretched thesedays and the refs often make soft calls meaning the game is more offense friendly, more open looks which equates to more easier assists. I think all those factors led to more triple doubles.
The video I always knew i wanted… and needed. Thanks! Russ
This is pure Gold! The best analyst hands down 🔥🔥
The phrase "you learn something new everyday" is proven every time Jxmy drops a video, keep up the good work
ua-cam.com/video/A9QtjK2rPCI/v-deo.html
You need to unlearn it.
It's generally about Westbrook averaging half his teams assists.
For example. In his 16-17 season.
Thunder team assists (20.1). 25th in the league.
Westbrook averaged 10.4 of those.
When you have such a high usage rate and % of your teams assists. Wins will correlate well with assist totals
Record by Westbrook assist total.
5 or less (2-7), 6-9 (7-16), 10-13 (26-9), 14+ (12-3).
Additionally, if the opposing team is missing more shots. You will have more rebound opportunities and a better chance to win the game.
Especially longer shots are taken. As this means guards have a better chance to get the longer rebound/miss. This doesn't even include the anecdotal antics he would pull to get those extra boards.
Can we all just appreciate how good this man’s videos are
yes....yes we can
Yes
fishing for likes
Absolutely
@@Jeremy-xy2fy stop projecting
Man your vids are something else, beautifully written, well explained and good sound and graphics, gotta love it
Thank you man, a lot of people needed this video
Appreciate the video, but there’s an unaddressed issue of correlation vs causation. Just because a triple-double is correlated with winning more, does not mean it directly leads to more wins. E.g. it could be because teammates playing better makes it easier for Russ to get a triple-double. This direct jump towards an argument for causation is like saying if a lot of people open up umbrellas, it will cause rain.
im saying
^^^^^^ what i was thinking the whole time
Been thinking the same. What if those losing games Russ just couldn’t get the triple double because the teams he was playing were better at dealing with how he plays?
Russ Has a 75% win rate when he gets triple doubles. It’s not all about stat padding, we’ve been fooled.
ua-cam.com/video/A9QtjK2rPCI/v-deo.html
I would love to see the correlation between the increase in 3 point shooting and the triple double. Are players getting more chances at rebounds based on increased missed shots? Has league apathy towards defense lead to increased scoring; leading to more assists? Might be also interesting to see what statistical category leads in the most "almost" triple doubles. Most likely its due to players now are more gifted and coached to play all parts of the game. Love the video as always!
scond this.
in order to get rebound, one will need to leave his player to be closer to the rim. jimmy analysis is still not really backing thing up yet.
@@blockx6098 his analysis is not really that good on this video it's alright but in others its really bad
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Not really. Since 1999-00 season, 3pa for teams has gone up from 13.7 per game up to 35.4 per game, rebounds has only up from 42.9 per game to 44.9, even tho total FGA has gone up from 82.2 per game to 88.2, but made shots has also gone up from 36.8 to 39.9 per game.
So nah, people are not just getting more rebounds. Field goal attempts has gone up but so has efficiency.
@@blockx6098 how? He broke down win percentage which is what the video was about: Does a triple double game lead to winning games. Calculating the reason why a triple double happens is off topic. Y'all shouldn't skip class anymore.
This is the only video essay on Russ that I've seen since KD left which actually brings some new insight to the table. You did your homework instead of falling back on media narratives. Bravo for a job well done!
This is one of the best videos you have produced. Excellent analysis
As a warriors fan, here’s an incredible stat that shows the value a triple double can have: Draymond Green has recorded 31 career triple-doubles. The Warriors are 30-1 in those games. That one loss was recorded with the historically bad 2019-20 warriors. Just goes to show Draymond’s and his triple doubles value.
Honestly this is so true, I feel like box stats rarely capture the true effect Draymond has. This stats proves the importance of Draymond.
He’s a beast and will definitely go down imo as one of the more underrated players of our time. Dude does everything for his team but score and fans say he’s a benchwarmer. Elite playmaking, defense, an on court coach, leader and a mentor. Sure part of it has to do with his role in the system, but if it was that easy anyone could have done it. Idts there’ll ever be a player who plays similar to Draymond.
@@bballytuber435 Bro where have you heard someone saying Draymond is bench warmer besides trolls lol. Everyone knows he used to be an all star and was a humongous role in all their playoffs and championships. I don't really think he's overrated, I've seen more praise for him now more than ever as people recognized how essential Draymond was to Curry when Draymond was out or a bit.
The warriors were not historically bad thats just a lie
@@redditmoderator8739 okay prolly exaggerated it a bit, and yea recently he’s received a lot more praise. But dude does receive a lot of hate from people just because he can’t score.
Jimmy dont miss
Kenny you ain’t missin too
You don't either ;)
Yo you better take care of vucevic
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W
2022 will be everyone’s year💯 STAY BLESSED!!
look at jimmy man.
so inspirational.
Triple double is so called “cumulative” stat. It does not measure accuracy and efficiency of the constituting stat lines. A player can score 30 points and have 20% field goal efficiency, which is really not great. Also, all those unrealised shots still may be scored by his teammates, which increases their stats. What we need to understand is that every possession is an improvement of the “cumulative” stats, and the player who possesses the ball most of the time will have better stats (Westbrook). Additionally, we need to find out do players who win score triple doubles more frequently or players who score triple doubles win more frequently, which is an incredulously daunting task. Therefore, the video simply states statistical correlation between wins and triple doubles. It is almost the same as saying “players of the winning team almost always have higher average points scored compared to a losing team”. I like the video, but math part is not that obvious and can be counter intuitive. As statisticians always say “if you torture data long enough, it will say anything”.
No one is scoring 30 points on a 20% eFG
agreed. Box scores only tell so much.
The Winning Percentage based on Triple Doubles really doesn't tell a ton. I would waiger, if you look at a player's +/- or even just Field Goal Percentage Defense could correlate to Winning Percentage as much if not more. At least 10 or more years ago in the NBA.
I have also had the same criticism for the "His teams have higher winning percentage when he gets a triple double" because correlation doesn't always imply causation, there is a good chance that if averaged 2-3 rebounds and assists less (which means he no longer averages a triple double) then it wouldn't have a negative impact on the overall score of the game, on the contrary, it could led to his team have better chance at winning because his teammates would get more shots and I don't see how Russ chasing defensive rebounds benefit his team as opposed to the center player getting those rebounds...
Exactly. So many latent variables were ignored for this video. It’s not as simple as he makes it you have to consider many, many, other factors you can’t just say: when triple double->higher%
When no triple double-> lower%
Therefore triple double good.
Yup i totally agree, ball hogs will always have good stats as team alpha guys. Basic stats need to change. Show us only percentage or number of contested rebounds won, assist to turnover ratio instead of just assist made. It would be fair for start
It’s a good day when jimmy uploads
ua-cam.com/video/A9QtjK2rPCI/v-deo.html
These videos are legit cinema 🔥
Great unbiased video man. Educated a lot of people right there
The effort he puts into charts are unimaginable
Edit: I'm not being 100% serious with this comment, so please don't take this seriously. But I know for a fact he spends hours making these videos for us so we have to appreciate him
He doesnt even know how to read stats.
@@crisbernabe2866 casual
Jimmy puts time into his videos, but to say this is "unimaginable" is a reach. In high school and college, you're gonna be doing similar things anyways. Perhaps you're young, which would make sense.
@@nickbatess This is most casual video I ever seen. That completely disregards the complaint of chasing a “triple double” Where’s the chart he forcing stats because he’s one rebound away from a triple double? Hence a L. If anyone sees the lakers season today, and just says Westbrook needs more triples doubles. They are a idiot.
@@crisbernabe2866 100%. If Russ goes for a triple double every game he’s obviously gonna win more when he gets one cause his passes and rebounds were working. But that doesn’t mean his team wouldn’t be more successful if he wasn’t trying to get them to begin with.
I wish the NHL had a channel like this, you really break things down amazingly well for some of us casual NBA fans!!
Casual
@@citylights3452 🤓
@@citylights3452 you making us look bad bro
@@aprespunk they said NHL
I doubt he'll use any video montage, but Shannon The Hockey Guy is the "go-to" guy for any casual fans IMO
I’m really glad you made this man.
So much of the banter on the Internet is not to be taken as gospel. Great video!
Giddey will easily be a 20/10/10 guy soon.
I’m definitely excited for the future
Im not seeing him doing 20 points 😂😂😂😂😂😂 i bet he will be like green, and have more assists than points
naw once defenses adjusts around him he'll be around Julius Randle level.
more like triple single in the next coming seasons.
@@skjor1989 yeah it's perfectly reasonable to expect a raw 19 year old rookie to get worse as he develops his game... Wait what? Nice bait though! I bit, haha
I personally think that the game has changed having more triple doubles as players are becoming far more rounded as players. Centers aren't just there to rebound and block shots or bully in the paint, they need to know how to shoot the 3, and even pass the ball out to the three. Not just centers but all players.
It’s being called “Position-less Basketball”
Basically the quantum physics of basketball
naw role players just shoot threes only
It’s literally just a product of the increased pace, more possessions = more stats
@@elijahmotley1803 Yeah if u don t see someone play u don t know their playstyle
@@perfectgematriadecodesabc4259 3 and D but yeah i feel ya
How you perform your research bro, I cannot comprehend. Kudos!
I do not watch or follow basketball but your analysis are so great that I always end up watching your videos
More rebounds available when an opposing team misses more shots and get more assists when your teammates make shots. Both of those occur more against teams that cant shoot or play defense. Simple as that to why winning % would be higher.
Yeah Jimmy's videos are entertaining as fuck, by my god is it always shit level analysis. Man sees a correlation in two numbers and jumps up and down "that's it! that right there! that's the truth!"
The reason why his numbers are inflated is because rule changes..tell everyone that and they don't understand.. Alot of fans fooled and think LeBron Goat..😆 🤣
Exactly, this is easily one of the most statistically ignorant videos I've ever seen...
I think you may be seeing these stats and making the incorrect conclusion from them. The reason why a player wins more games when they get triple doubles is generally because reaching 10 assists requires a certain standard of shooting from your team mates, so it's unlikely your team was inefficient if you got 10 assists. Also, Russ having a lower win percentage when scoring more than 40 is literally because he is an immensely inefficient scorer and probably took a million posessions to reach 40 points. Russ is at his best when he scores less and passes more, because Russ' team mates are pretty much all more likely to score a shot than he is, so the possession ending in someone else's hands is better than it ending in his. More turnovers for Russ are generally a result of him attempting more passes, which is why the winning percentage isn't affected; him passing is always optimal.
Facts yo Westbrook is trash this season💀
Thank you! I was waiting for someone to point this out
Incredible analysis! Also let's no forget who he played with! All but one championship contender teams
i was thinking the same thing. It's like: He gets the triple double because the team is playing well. More assits = they are shooting better. More rebounds = they are defending better. The only definitive way to find out is make a correlation of overall team performance & the trople double.
finally someone who gets it.
Love your videos Jimmy !!!! Excellent as always !! keep it up !! Love from Greece!!
This channel is freaking awesome! Way to put in the work.
8:13 that’s bc statistically this isn’t exhaustive. Compare RW’s offensive numbers when he has less than 4 turnovers. There’s a statistically significant difference in his output and triple double rate. Not to mention, team spread. When contribution by player is analyzed, when a team has another player with similar outputs, the numbers change. Triple doubles pop when he failed to have a co star averaging atleast 16ppg. And when he does, look at the win/loss ratio OVERLAID with that co star’s performance. It paints a grim picture that a linear analysis can’t capture. He’s an offensive black hole. There’s a reason one of the most prolific offense players of a generation lacks an NBA title.
Thats what im sayinggg. I love jimmy but this video didnt make much sense. Seemed like jimmy was saying that russ doesnt do much wrong
love it when 2 of my favorite sport analysis channels interact
Video makes sense but I disagree nonetheless. Still respect the hell out of Jimmy
Exactly, Jimmy somehow became a casual with all these graphs and statistics.
You mentioning a teammate not getting 16 points per game makes no sense. To average a triple double takes 10 assists per game. If you don’t have the teammates making the points to get 10 assists, then yes, your likely hood of a triple double is going to plummet.
I love Russ, and I believe his triple doubles are an amazing achievement that contribute to winning basketball. I would, however, like to see those win percentages with opponent difficulty rating as another stat. I could see a situation where stacking up triple doubles against a bottom-half defense leads to easy wins, but the same play-style has a tough time against elite teams. Russ has a great track record, but it'd be an interesting extra data point.
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Hi🤩💜💙🧡 Where are you from?🧡
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jimmy your videos are the reason I and many others like me love the game of basketball
Jimmy's got the legendary badge for analysis! 👍 Great stuff!
I used to hate Russ and that changed when he was left alone in OKC and still tried his best to lift the team into playoffs. Lots of fans only see his mistakes they often forgot the great things he is doing. I love that this video validates the greatness of Russ.
he has skills but he doesnt know how to utilize them properly. Reminds me of Carmelo has flash's of brilliance but also alot of smh moments.
His mistakes hurt more than the few good things he does
Hi🤩💜💙🧡 Where are you from?🧡
@@mafia5509 Las Vegas
ua-cam.com/video/et0iR5PNFpQ/v-deo.html
2:25 this man Gibson really tried to block with the shoe on his hand I’m dead 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
😂 😂 😂 😂 Twerked me out
He didn't want to give up on the play😂😂😂
The thing that really makes me realize how much time has passed is looking at how old one of these videos are
Another JxmyHighroller Banger!
I feel like it’d make more sense to look for patterns between triple doubles and box plus minus. Just something feels off comparing win-loss records to triple doubles, there is not an inherent cause/effect relationship there. It’d also make sense to normalize his stat line with like per 36 mins and pace of play. Do all these rebounds equal points and how often vs when other players rebound? Idk it seems much deeper than the video makes it out to be
At the end of the day, the W is all that matters.
w comment
I think all in all when a star player is that involved with every phase of the game, goods things happen for the team. Stars’ performance often times directly aligns with their teams performance. I’d like to Russ’ teams win percentages when he scores 30+ pts and doesn’t have more than 4 turnovers. And also the games in which he has a triple double but has 5+ turnovers.
I agree something feels of about the stats in the video i feel likes that Is the first time i say this about one of his videos
Yea this video didn't answer anything. Russ from 2016-2019 was way more athletic and played in a different role and system than he does now. Look at how those win %s fall off every year and dramatically decrease after 2019.
You may wish to question your premise for causality. Russell Westbrook’s triple doubles may be not the reason why his teams won in those games. It may indeed be the reverse - Russell got his triple doubles in games that his teams performed well and were winning, which allowed him to get his triple doubles more easily.
I like this take vs a lot of other ppls,I think it’s a good and simple scenario to observe. People want to dig and find more and more stats that will prove this guy a bad player. But I will say at the end of his video he mentioned all players that get triple doubles help their team win % overall so it says more to the complete game of a triple double, Russ is just the king of them. It’s okay for us to say Russ ales his teammates better
If that’s the case why don’t other players do it when their team is winning? Nobody else is averaging a triple double but by you statement more players should be averaging it. Getting a triple double is one thing but averaging it is another. I think we all forget the game is way faster than before, I.e. no more big men slowing down the game waiting to get a pass in the post so that also contributes to more td
@@100Xsprinkles because players focus on the goal of the game, which is to win, not to acquire triple doubles. You're actually agreeing with his point I think
it can also means games that he played harder on D like when his stat line is good, he makes more effort on D. So it really can be anything, the correlation between W and TD doesn't tell the whole story at all, it's not a clear cause-consequence.
In the end it might simply be that when Westbrook plays properly they have a chance to win but when he doesn't he does it in a really effed up way, no D, poor shot selection, lots of TO, etc. So of course there are more Ws when he plays well - or when he has TD, for instance - because when he doesn't play well his presence is not neutral it's like minus a lot compared to most players and probably any player with significant minutes played.
So why doesn’t Curry average more triple doubles with this logic
i keep re watching your old ones because they are so good
These videos are awesome keep it up so informative and Unbiased
I’d love to see how much his FG% impacts his winning % when he does have a triple double. I think a lot of people see his triple double stats on a night he goes 5/18 shooting or so in a lot of his losses and get annoyed that they are still celebrated performances
Getting the 10 points is the easiest part of a triple double.
How he gets the rest and how much it actually helps the team win is a separate question entirely that Jimmy skimmed over, never addressing proper correlation and cause.
💯I’m still shocked this happened 💀😲🥶 🔥 ‼️ua-cam.com/video/Kbk-ayUxT70/v-deo.html ‼️‼️
@@YourFavouriteDraugr Jimmy is 🗑 for this one. I will forever question anything he says in the future
@@astashasta1 Hopefully one day when Westbrook retires, he’ll get some damn respect. Jimmy didn’t have to go in depth with his video he just wanted to fact check the people who claim triple doubles are “empty stats”. But y’all are contradicting yourselfs again by bringing up “stat padding” and “play-style”. Don’t hate the player, hate the game.
@@wavyjay-4160 Ya and hes wrong lol. Just because westbrook boosts his teams win rate when hes on a bad team with no superstar doesn't make up for the fact he tanks any chance of a deep playoff run. He shoots horribly, won't adjust his game, is inefficient af, needs the ball in his hands to do anything useful and worst of all is paid 44 mil. The lakers aren't all his fault but he deserves all the criticism hes getting
To me, the question isn’t “What is Russ’ team record when he gets a TD?” It’s, “What is Russ’ team record when Russ is 2-3 assists and/or 2-3 rebounds away from a TD”
THIS. This is what I've been saying. This video is literally only taking into account when Russ tries for a triple double and everything goes well. When him passing up open shots to try to get 10 assists leads to a bucket and not a missed shot or a turnover. When his team is trying to let him rack up rebounds so they are a little lazy and the other team gets the rebound.
This video is essentially "When Everything Goes Right For Russel Westbrook His Teams Win". Which is the most obvious statement in the world.
@@odonnellcaleb glad I found some deep thinkers in the comments. Deep down I know jimmy knows this, but ignored it because of the shock that Russell Westbrook helps his teammates when he stat pads.
@@odonnellcaleb well not really he good shoot terrible and have 10 turnovers but he still has a higher chance of winning with that triple double
@@prestonball437 that's absolutely not true the way you worded it. I do get your point, but the way you worded it we have no statistics that looked into that here. I mean I'm fairly certain the last time this scenario played out it was against the Thunder...he had a triple double and 10 turnovers and they lost. And certainly there can't be that many games where that took place. But I do get what you're saying. Which is basically in theory it's possible he did have a bunch of awful games that were triple doubles and he still won 70%. But in reality we don't know how often that happened.
Cap
The only counter-argument I have against what Jimmy’s saying is that correlation does not equal causation. Just because a team tends to win more when a player has more triple doubles doesn’t mean that the wins come from the triple doubles. It could be that for those wins, the team as a whole did better and got the win because everybody worked well together (not just because 1 guy did well). For these games, the team was probably able to feed their star player triple doubles, therefore making it look like more triple double = more wins. Just food for thought 🤷🏻♂️
You need evidence to back up a claim lmao
@@boi8068 you do not need evidence to state a well known fact: correlation does not imply causation.
@LoreLine tf did you just ask me to prove why correlation does not equal causation? 💀 Take a stats class bro
That’s not the only thing but that’s a great point as well! The main point I was thinking of was how does this translate to post-season success? Jimmy COMPLETELY ignored this point and for good reason, cause the triple double leaders have done HORRIBLE in the playoffs.
@@rockman00 And just like that LoreLine was never seen again lmao
What a deep dive. Appreciate it!
triple double is still amazing and always will be
Let me preface this by saying I love the analysis it was really well thought out and put together; however, have you considered the difference between correlation and causation in this instance. It seems to me that rather than Russ's teams winning more when he drops a triple double it would make more sense that he is more likely to get a triple double when his team is already winning.
Maybe..
Hi🤩💜💙🧡 Where are you from?🧡
I feel like that’s discrediting what Westbrook has done
ua-cam.com/video/et0iR5PNFpQ/v-deo.html
The last bit of statistics he showed, the total amount of wins in a game where a player hits a triple double being 70%. That’s league-wide. So I think causation can be assumed with a sample size that large.
Always when I'm eating Jxmy comes in clutch
Best basketball content on UA-cam. Editing, production and research are top notch
"I know this may be hard for people to understand, but a player can have a great game and their team can still lose"
damn, he got us
Except that's not what he said
🔥 ua-cam.com/video/dmEmbGzUt3A/v-deo.html 🔥🔥
🔥 ua-cam.com/video/dmEmbGzUt3A/v-deo.html 🔥🔥
Hi🤩💜💙🧡 Where are you from???🧡
ua-cam.com/video/et0iR5PNFpQ/v-deo.html
The crying meme on Russ’s 3/19 fg game. 😂😂😂😂
Insane video and especially statistics and research quality, a really great channel
I can't tell you how good you are at this logical journalism. It's good soup!
Holy crap. I cannot thank you enough for this video as a Russ fan. You found evidence people overlooked for years. Jimmy, I fucking love you bro.
ua-cam.com/video/yhD3GLZBKrk/v-deo.html
sorry but hes wrong on this one :(
its easier to get a lot of assists if your team is shooting well. and its easier to get a lot of rebounds if the other team is shooting bad. the win creates the triple double. the TD doesnt create the win.
@@valjohnson7112 Nice thinking. He should do a video on whether or not the TD creates the W or the W create the TD. I'm open to the ideas but my man Russ at least should get a bit more respect after this video comes out.
My thoughts:
It's easier to get a triple double and farm rebounds when you're stomping another team. How many triple doubles has Russ gotten because he can just get easy rebounds where his team was winning anyway without the triple double?
And for the 40+ point games, its similar: Is he scoring 40+ points because he's the only option on the Wizards where Beal is out? How efficient were those 40 point games, cause you could just let LaMelo Ball score 40+ points every game too but he'd shoot 18-60 and the Hornets would get blown out
just accept russ greatness
How do you tell?
Ask yourself: were any of westbrooks team the 72 win bulls? No
Does that mean they were blowing out 90% of the teams? No, cuz his teams were average at best.
Conclusion: Most of their games were close more often than not. So his triple doubles are getting more wins than losses.
Winnerhoops , I mean the TWolves are an average team and they just blew out the rockets a couple days ago. Just cause a team isn’t blowing someone out every time doesn’t mean it can’t happen
@@TheWardog158 as per mentioned. There will be some blowouts. But because westbrook did not play on the 72 bulls team. I assure you there were not many blowouts.
@@winnervu He was in the finals multiple tumes alongside Kd and harden at okc which was a good team.
Pace and more positional fluidity has also played a big role in my mind that there are more triple doubles. Im sure if those things were there in the older eras the triple double stats of some of those greats would be much higher. Also kobe and michael were never known as huge assist guys either (not that they couldn't pass, they could just they played in a diff era and were wired to score) which probably deflated their potential triple double numbers.
Jordan lead the league in triple doubles ones season, actually: 1988 or ‘89, I think? It was one of his best years. MJ ended up having to play point for several weeks . He ended up averaging about 32/8/8 & had something like eight triple doubles in ten games at on endpoint.
You're amazing making these great videos.
I feel like a theres A LOT of variables that go into winning a game, and individual performances like achieving triple doubles is just one of them. Stats always look nice tho. Love your videos Jimmy.
Giannis just had 43 and 12 on 50/50/90 splits against the hornets and still lost, it doesn't matter if your superstar has one of his best games ever, basketball is a team sport and people always seem to not care or forget that. I also think the simplicity of the triple double equates to wins, high assists means teammates are hitting their shots, gonna win more games when you score more lol
As a Hornets fan, I was flabbergasted to see his stat line and that we still won, lol.
And the Heat win with G league players vs the Suns the other night… team sport is very underrated. Modern NBA has become a stat line sport like MLB is, and it’s different. You can’t money ball your way into the NBA.
@@gabrielgonzalez6456 moneyball?
@@retrosoul8770 if I’m not mistaken MLB has like non existent salary caps so the teams with the most money just buy the best players and go all the way, I think that’s what he’s referring to
yo this man know his STUFF.
Great vid with superb stats to back up your point. I applaud you good sir.
I am also curious to see how shooting percentage when the triple double occurs equates to wins. This is generally why Giannis wins more when he gets a triple double because it is a great game as opposed to a personal goal for the game.
The one thing I would ask regarding Russ' winning percentage w/ triple doubles (or anyone's winning percentage), Who did they win against when they get those triple doubles? Is this done against a +500 team or a below 500 team? Because it's easy to say that Russ helps his team win when he gets a triple double because of the high win percentage, but it matters more if those wins and triple doubles are against +500 teams in the nba. If Russ is mainly putting up triple doubles and wins against losing team (-500 teams) then it is more stat padding. Russ often beats up on weak teams during the regular season then loses to decent teams in the 1st round of the playoffs. (even w/ triple doubles)
At the end of the day they’re all nba players. It’s still incredible
Exactly that stems from his low basketball iq which gets exposed against better teams
@@promaterialll9379 No stat padding is ever impressive. The times where he loses are the times he tried to stat pad but had 11 turnovers and shot 20%.
Y’all always bringing up something to batter Russ about leave the man the fuck alone
In his 2016-17 season - including playoffs - 9-7. 3-0 vs the Jazz.
Wins were highly correlated with Westbrooks assist #'s. Going to happen when you average half your teams assists and have a usage rate of 41%.
Record by Westbrook assist line that season ... 5 or less (2-7), 10+ (38-12), 14+ (12-3).
Poor record for 6-9 ast as well. Team record that season was 47-35.
Jimmy the myth busters of ball
You the real deal jimmy 💯💯💯
Before the vid: my take has always been,
CONTEXT MATTERS.
the triple double can be a good indicator of a complete game, which in most cases can be justified. I believe in the more organic trip-dubs. The ones where someone is just legitimately doing everything within the flow of the game and the stats just follow.
But with westbrook, he has had it in his mind and heart that his entire superstar status is predicated on the triple double, so he forces them out by merit of his insane usage rate and how he neuters his teammates. He plays with the clear intention of BEING THE REASON that they win, and THAT I can't stand.
He plays like whether or not he wins, he expects you all to look at his numbers and highlights and absolve him of blame because of "stats" and "effort".
I can understand chasing your very first triple double if the opportunity arises, but I don't like how Russ goes in the game with a clear intention to steal everyone's rebounds, pound the ball for 20 seconds looking for a lane to drive, and only passing when he wants an assist. It's so short sighted and self destructive to his teams I'm amazed he hasn't figured it out yet
ua-cam.com/video/A9QtjK2rPCI/v-deo.html
Wasn’t like that on most games with the wizards, infact, quite a couple superstars have averaged a lot of points with him on their side , from Kd, to PG, to Harden, to Beal , to LeBron, he doesn’t get in their way to that degree. He made us better than what we were last year. His usage is super high , but on that team last year I don’t know who really needed the ball more? Guys were at career high percentages. And yeah a lot of his rebounds are free and I hate how bad he is on defense , but he helps , you may have saw it this year with the Lakers , helps having someone who can rebound like him. People like to speak for him a bit too much “he wants stats more than wins etc,” I don’t believe that, not a superstar of his caliber, but I do believe he wants the rebound more than the defensive stop, he wants to be the reason they win or lose , etc, but I’m assuming it’s because he thinks that’s how he can win, not because he doesn’t care to win. I wish he’d play with more IQ than he does, mainly shot IQ, I really do wish he’d alter his shot, it’s terrible, work on free throws, and actually play some damn defense though.
The stat is true for everyone, not just russ. Teams win more often when said player gets a triple double. Did u watch? Stop hating
It's better for his team if hes getting a triple double then everybody eats plays harder
This analysis falls apart when you consider maybe Russ is just far more likely to get triple doubles against a losing team. You should provide data showing the winning percentages of the teams he played against so we can draw a more meaningful conclusion.
@@dumbmoot1708 make it into parts…..problem solved
👗🧱 has turned the 'Triple Double' into a gimmick, and STEPHBRON is chasing Kareem by using more 3's than 2's ...
How did the Lakers manage to get twin
📈STAT PADDERS📉 on the same team?? You reap what you sow (Why does Lebron stack the deck ALL THE TIME, B? 😎)
Ya that is definitely critical for comparison, but its quite good for comparison to turnovers and points over 40
That’s a good point.
Is Westbrook’s performance an effect of playing weaker opponents?
Or are the wins an effect of his performance?
Yes. Exactly.
Really excellent like always. Thank you for all these great videos with so many stats. About Russ West who is an amazing player with limitless energy, I’m also fed up to hear about his turn overs. These should be compared with the number of balls he had in his hands during a game. This ratio would give us the truth…
This vid chnaged my mind about some stuff. thanks
I’d like to see these stats when compared to games playing against teams with winning records. During his record season Westbrook would play into garbage minute time to get his stat line to maintain the average. It’s easier to put up the stats against weaker opponents and get the W for a premier player like Russ. Does it translate the same way against top tier teams? I’d wager those percentages drop significantly from the 80% mark touted in the video to something slightly higher than the win average but not much. Same with the turn over stat. The NBA is too much of have and have not teams over the past 10 years. The talent has progressively pooled to fewer squads with the ‘Big 3s’ … 4s and now 5s. I’d suspect that has a lot more effect on stat bloat we’re seeing cause the time frames match up too much to be coincidence.
As a diehard russ fan that first statement simply isn’t true. Russ only averaged 34.4 minutes per game his MVP season, well below his career high and has 7 seasons with a higher mpg. Also simply watching the games I know that russ usually had a trip dub through the 3rd quarter. Sure he did it a few times in garbage time but that’s very rare and i can guarantee there aren’t more than 5 games he did that in his MVP year
@@breyer6560 Facts . People are literally just trend followers who have never played at a high level or even watched with a players eye . Hating Russ is trendy & people who constantly criticize Russ’ game haven’t the slightest idea how impactful his game is .
@@breyer6560 Wouldn’t call myself a die hard but def a Russ fan too. He’s a beast and my comments aren’t meant to knock him. I just think taking any single stat as the measure of anything in basketball is sketchy. It’s a multivariate game. Not just within teams but across the league. I would argue first that MPG isn’t indicative of minutes played during garbage time. As a super fan you probably watched more games than me that season. I’ll say I did witness it twice and just went back and checked the stats to double check myself. Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder Box - April 4, 2017. Game was over at half and thunder up 24. Russ played a useless additional 9 minutes in the third and actively sought rebounds and assists, which he was behind on for the triple. The Bucks pulled their starters. They conceded the win but Russ kept playing. Reason I remember it was because it was getting close to playoff time and I thought it was really reckless to keep him in and not rest him. They did it again a few days later against the suns in a loss where they were down like 30 and he still played almost the whole fourth quarter chasing assist for the triple. That game he had 36 minutes in a game that was also over at half (down by like 30 I think). But look I didn’t watch a lot of games that year. Mostly toward the end of the season so if you did and you say that didn’t happen that often then I’ll concede the point. However, I do believe in the second part about league parity. Part of the reason there are so many triple doubles all over is that most of the league’s talent is pooling on fewer teams. I have to believe that’s a part of this. I’d love to see the number of times any of these guys, and not just Russ, are getting trip dubs vs playoff or playoff contending teams vs the rest of the league.
@@MyGuyCy not hating at all. He’s a monster. I’m saying the data isn’t that simple. You can’t take one players stat on an island and make proofs with it. Which this isn’t meant to be about Russ, it’s about triple doubles across the league and why they are more frequent. Don’t you think league parity and super teams have a lot to do with that? They’re making the regular season more and more irrelevant. My opinion of course but unless it’s two playoff teams playing (or maybe an up and comer individual player) games aren’t worth watching during the regular season anymore. Super Teams actually have planned rest for players now … because they can cause they’re stacked. Has to be a part of this.
Played high school ball in VA at Maury HS in VA with Joe Smith. Tough basketball area - AI, Alonzo Mourning. No college ball or anything, too short and frankly not good enough - now I’m old and fat and have zero knees but not a complete noob.
@@MyGuyCy no it’s true. This is a simple case of correlation doesn’t equal causation. Russ beats down shit teams and most of the time, his team can win without russ getting a triple double, but stat padding is in his nature
I think there is a really big confounding factor here. I don't think "getting a triple double gets you more wins". I think if you are already winning either way, it's easier to pad the stats and get the triple double.
What you said makes no sense, esp since teams often when ahead play their stars less. This should lead to less triple doubles not more.
@@GoatReactz In the 1st year Westbrook averaged a triple double, he only played 6 games that he recorded 30 minutes or less in. He only got a triple double in 2 of the 6 games, winning them all.
@@GoatReactz nah hes right. if your team is making their shots then it is easier to get assists. and if the other team is missing their shots then it is easier to get rebounds. so if your team is playing well and the otehr team is playing poorly then it would be easier to get a triple double.
This dude puts sports analyzation into a different level I’ve been here since 200k and it’s been amazing since
This video needed to be made for sure
Great vid as always but there is one flaw in your argument - correlation does not imply causation: the triple doubles could be a byproduct of other factors that ultimately contribute to the higher win%, for example good team FG% (more assists), bad opponent FG% (more reb). So basically it could also be that when your team shoots better and the opponent shoots worse => you likely win more => and it happens that you likely have a higher chance to get a triple double
You have to point out, is it easier to get triple doubles in a win, or is it easier to win when someone is getting a triple double, and when is which the case.
With Westbrook, he can only get triple doubles in the games his team is winning.
Bruh, not just Westbrook but virtually all players that record triple doubles have an outrageous winning record.
GS is 28-1 with Green recording a triple double a dude that doesnt even influence the game with scoring with the majority of these games he barely had 10 points.
Just think it through dude how much impact a statline like 20-10-10 really has on a game. It's potentially at least 35 ish points created by one player while getting 1-2 offensive possesions back by rebounds by a score or another possesion and 8 potential fastbreak opportunities by grabbing the defensive board.
It either way has a huge impact on the game and these statistics of not just one but virtually every player that records a triple double just show a correlation between winning and a triple double.
it's easier to statpad when your team is winning
@@IHateStroads honestly this seems like one of the most obvious correlation does not equal causation examples. Far more likely the rival team is playing very poorly if a player is able to get a triple double in the first place. Making it a function of bad performance than the triple double.
@@Kage-jk4pj i wont deny theres a possibility that bad oppisition give an easy TD but by your logig every 30pt, 40 pt hell even kobe's 81 pt game is simply down to the oppenent being bad. You can obviously win games because the oppenents play bad but to say every win/accomplishment EVER is due to bad play is just silly
@@big_oo one attempt at finding causation could be to have a well defined metric that enough experts agree on. To determine that both teams played well and then compare all those games that also had a person who got a triple double. And see how it impacts the win loss ratio
Oh and he’s an Aussie!!! Great work man!!!
i love ur videos, ur amazing, keep doing what u do
It really feels like I’ve been messin w jimmy forever, don’t stop bro I love these.
There is one HUGE thing you didn't think about. Westbroook TDs are usually against weaker team, so it's easier for his team to actually win the game (that's why his winning % higher). If he aint getting TD - it's usually because he is playing against better team = he would probably lose anyway, even with scoring TD. I mean, if 80% of his TD are against bad teams no wonder he has high win ratio in those games, because his team would win anyway.
I love you as analyst, but you missed on that one. Just look how many of those TD were in games with against teams above 0.500.
So what happen when he triple double all season.. All team weak?
@@fahmiyusoff9154 he didnt get a triple double in every single game lol. he Averaged a triple double.
@@valjohnson7112 Yeah, in 42 games. Over half the league is bad?
@@Hrogthar it’s easier to get them against teams that are playing bad definitely.
@@valjohnson7112 Then why doesn't every all star do what Russ did?
This dude Jimmy is making science.
Wow this is honestly a great video with great analytics to back your point it’s been a while since I’ve seen this channel
8:36 you should be looking at his triple doubles with less than 4 turnovers. The reason he gets the turnovers is mostly due to incomplete passes that he threw to get a bunch of assists for his triple double.
Fax
he might not have any lol
So weird he only averages 1 turnover more than players like Lebron, CP3, Doncic, Harden etc even though his turnovers are mostly due to 'incomplete passes' to get assists for triple doubles.
Wonder how those dudes all get about 3.5 turnovers without doing that. So you mean those players I mentioned are overrated or does what you say not make any sense whatsoever.
Another way of looking at this is that even with high turnovers, Westbrook still won 70% of his games when he got a triple double.
@@IHateStroads That's also true, but also not true. Westbrook averages 47% from the field and thats with his horrible shooting the past 4-5 games. Adding that the dude's overall effeciency is influenced by his 3 point percentage(which he steadily bettered over the past 20 games to 36% but averages 30% over the entire season due to a slow start) meaning that if he'd skip on those shots, he would have the highest FG% of all guards above 50%.
So he's really not missing a lot. Lately? Yes, but based on his entire season, he's weirdly enough one of the most efficiënt scorers.
That's however, if he's hitting his 3's and isnt going 3-14 etc like lately. It's been bad lately reminiscent to his start of the season.