I’m 70: Should I Buy A 4.7% 20-Year Treasury Bond | What Are The Dangers?

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  • Опубліковано 9 січ 2025

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  • @DiamondNestEgg
    @DiamondNestEgg  Місяць тому +5

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    SOURCES:
    fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS20
    www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
    home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
    www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/boston-fed-president-says-december-rate-cut-isnt-a-done-deal-50ef1429?mod=hp_major_pos1
    www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/
    fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10
    www.fidelity.com/
    REFERENCED VIDEOS:
    Best-Yielding Bond Offerings Now That The Election Is Over: ua-cam.com/video/gHQPekW8FBA/v-deo.html
    >>>>>>>>>>
    Here is the overview for Bond Beginners:
    1. Bond Basics
    What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works
    Why Invest In Bonds
    New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
    Interest Rates & Bond Prices
    Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
    Always Remember This!
    Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
    Different Types Of Bonds
    Wrap-Up
    2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
    Seven Key Bond Risks
    Credit Risk
    Interest Rate Risk
    Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
    Inflation Risk
    Liquidity Risk
    Currency Risk & Country Risk
    Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
    Wrap-Up
    3. US Treasuries Overview
    What Are US Treasuries
    Why Invest In Treasuries
    Where Can You Buy Treasuries
    How Are Treasuries Taxed
    Wrap-Up
    4. Treasury Bills
    What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
    When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen
    Where Should You Buy At Auction
    Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction
    Where To Find Recent Auction Results
    High Rate vs Investment Rate
    Reopening Auctions
    Cash Management Bills (CMBs)
    Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
    Wrap-Up
    5. Treasury Notes & Bonds
    What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds
    When Do Auctions Happen
    Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds
    Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate
    Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
    Treasury Zeros (STRIPS)
    Wrap-Up
    6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected)
    What Are TIPS
    When Do TIPS Auctions Happen
    Nominal vs Real Yields
    Negative Yields
    How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation
    Taxes On Phantom Income
    Secondary Market Liquidity
    Wrap-Up
    7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
    What Are I-Bonds
    How Does I-Bond Interest Work
    I-Bonds vs TIPS
    The Annual I-Bond Limit
    Wrap-Up
    8. Agency Bonds
    The Universe Of Bonds
    What Are Agency Bonds
    How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
    Treasuries vs Agencies
    Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
    Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
    Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
    Wrap-Up
    9. Municipal Bonds
    Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
    What Are Municipal Bonds
    How Safe Are Munis
    How Are Munis Taxed
    The De Minimis Rule
    Social Security & Medicare Premiums
    Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
    Who Might Want To Consider Munis
    Wrap-Up
    10. Corporate Bonds
    Our Bond Universe Is Complete
    What Are Corporate Bonds
    How Safe Are Corporates
    Corporate Bond Hierarchies
    Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
    How Are Corporates Taxed
    Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
    Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
    Wrap-Up
    >>>>>>>>>>
    Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
    1. Stocks vs Bonds
    Historical Performance
    Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
    Why Invest In Bonds
    Accumulation vs Decumulation
    Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
    Wrap-Up
    2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
    Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
    Nominal vs Real Yields
    Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
    Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
    Wrap-Up
    3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
    Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
    What Is A Bond Ladder
    5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
    Laddering When Rates Are Rising
    Laddering When Rates Are Falling
    Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
    What Is A Bullet
    What Is A Barbell
    Wrap-Up
    4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
    Why Hold to Maturity
    When To Sell Early Before Maturity
    Tax Implications Of Selling Early
    Wrap-Up
    5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
    Why Buy Individual Bonds
    Why Buy Bond Funds
    Bond Fund Considerations
    Key Bond Fund Concepts
    CDs vs Treasuries
    Other High-Yield Investments
    Wrap-Up
    6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
    Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
    Model Portfolios In The Industry
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
    How Much Do You Need To Retire?
    How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
    B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
    Wrap-Up
    7. The Decumulation Phase
    What Is The Decumulation Phase?
    Bear Markets & Recessions
    What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
    Decumulation Tax Considerations
    The 4% Rule
    The Bucket Strategy
    The Flooring Approach
    Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
    Wrap-Up
    >>>>>>>>>>
    Thanks for visiting our personal finance channel! We hope this content will help fast-track your financial journey! Everyone's financial journey is different. Please note that:
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  • @ScooterOnHisWay2024
    @ScooterOnHisWay2024 Місяць тому +17

    Nobody on YT does this better than Jennifer does here. I am never confused when watching these videos. She doesn't bury us in extra topics & superfluous data. Thank you Jennifer for this wonderful series of weekly reviews. You are making us money!

  • @danbrown6072
    @danbrown6072 Місяць тому +35

    I don’t like bond options with maturities out more than 5 years. With the country’s ever growing debt, I’ve very concerned we will have hyper inflation in 10-15 years. Treasuries will lose a lot of value. I’d want access to my cash in 2030/2035 to put into stock or other property that will rise with inflation.

    • @primarya4156
      @primarya4156 Місяць тому +2

      TIPS comes to play in that

    • @gregh7457
      @gregh7457 Місяць тому +2

      who can afford even more expensive real estate? you'de have to have 1% rates and 40 year mortgages for the average person to qualify because wages are not going up for the average person. This thinking that real estate will protect you in hyper inflation is baffling to me. I'm not a gold bug but that is one of the few things i would want in a hyper inflation situation

    • @Omar-nd6lh
      @Omar-nd6lh Місяць тому +1

      💯. I suppose ignorance is bliss and someone not aware of this could sleep peacefully holding 20 year bonds at over 4%. I’d be terrified.

    • @pdouglas3866
      @pdouglas3866 Місяць тому

      I think you are being remarkably optimistic to anticipate hyperinflation that far off. If we reasonably conclude that there will be large tax cuts for the wealthy, large tariffs on imports and a gutting of our workforce through repatriation, it's hard for me NOT to imagine hyperinflation in 2-4 years. Unfortunately, with our newly reelected President's cavalier history towards bankruptcy and his open musings about politicizing the Federal Reserve, I'm starting to become nervous about the safety of Treasuries. Gold may become the only option left for us down the road.

  • @Tenn1951
    @Tenn1951 Місяць тому +31

    I am 73 and remember when the 30 year treasury bond was over 15% in September 1981. I would not buy a 20 year at 4.7%. I will be buying the 10 year TIP at next week's auction which is a reopening. That is about as far as I would go with a treasury maturity. I have traded long dated TIPS in a Roth IRA, but quit doing that years ago. There is an interest rate risk that I call the risk of lost opportunity, which occurs when interest rates are in a long term uptrend (e.g. 1950 to mid-1982) after the purchase of a long bond and I then have two bad options for the funds tied up. I either sell at a loss or simply suffer with the lower yielding bond that is paying me less interest than I could receive with a new purchase. I believe investors are underpricing now future inflation risk and the likelihood that treasury yields will down the road many years become untethered from inflation expectations due to U.S. treasury supply overwhelming demand.

    • @JohnDunkelberg
      @JohnDunkelberg Місяць тому +1

      I was also surprised TIPS weren't discussed more here. That's the real "sleep well at night" option.

    • @robp9746
      @robp9746 13 днів тому

      Good Advice!

  • @HarborRain-u1c
    @HarborRain-u1c Місяць тому +7

    Thank you for covering the question about 4.7% 20-year Treasury, the pros and cons!

  • @jimmattson8008
    @jimmattson8008 Місяць тому +10

    I'm 67 and buy only 7+10 year treasuries to hold to maturity. Rates up or down doesn't matter to me as I'm enjoying the income and security. I currently have 60% of my portfolio in these treasuries and will add more if needed.

    • @nelson3495
      @nelson3495 Місяць тому +1

      Do you have to hold them for 7-10 years? How often are dividends paid? And are the rates locked? I’m new to this

    • @briandarnell1809
      @briandarnell1809 Місяць тому

      @@nelson3495 seven year treasuries pay their coupon every six months.

    • @MalibuBeach-n8u
      @MalibuBeach-n8u 17 годин тому

      @@nelson3495 dividends are paid twice a year. A buyer can buy 1-year, 2 3, 5, 10, 20, or 30-year term treasury note in his/her brokerage account.

  • @toddapplegate3988
    @toddapplegate3988 Місяць тому +1

    Consider your entire bond holdings "What is the overall maturity if your bonds?," As long as you have maturities to cover short term needs and yield changes the longer bond can be purchased with the possability of only getting at maturity the intial investment or conversely the sky falls and that 4.7% yield makes it worth more

  • @eliseleblanc740
    @eliseleblanc740 Місяць тому +10

    It doesn’t have to be all or nothing. Invest some in the 20 year bond, not all.

    • @mr.j2776
      @mr.j2776 Місяць тому

      Agree. I'm 67 and I have a wide spectrum of maturity dates.

  • @olivern4784
    @olivern4784 Місяць тому +6

    I would invest in a TIPS ladder instead of one long nominal bond.

  • @khc8800
    @khc8800 Місяць тому +8

    More bluntly, if you sell tranches of your long-term bonds when rates are RISING, you'll be selling AT A LOSS. To avoid losing your capital, you must originally buy at highest rate and sell tranches when rates are FALLING. Otherwise, it's best to hold for the entire 20 years - when you're 90 years old and hope not to die before then.

  • @guvya
    @guvya Місяць тому +5

    Big investors are shorting the long end treasuries. Rates seem set to go even higher

  • @martinneumann9345
    @martinneumann9345 Місяць тому +2

    A- rated and higher insurance co MYGA with 2-7 year maturity paying 5.1 -5.5.

  • @goldl3147
    @goldl3147 Місяць тому +6

    Jen, just curious, what happened to your bond ladder? Are you still buying short-term T-bill?

  • @bobwait3629
    @bobwait3629 Місяць тому +2

    I wonder why there isn't a 15-year Treasury bond issued as a risk-free reference point for 15-year mortgages, which seem to be another popular option after 30-year mortgages.

  • @bridgetg1916
    @bridgetg1916 22 дні тому +1

    Jen, would you consider doing a video on this issue, just in from The Kiplinger Letter (Dec 12, 2024): ""Look for T-bill prices to rise early in the new year, as their supply drops and investors such as money market funds bid up the remaining ones. Their yields will dip as a result. Then, that process is likely to reverse shortly before the deadline for raising the debt ceiling sometime in mid-2025. Assuming Congress votes to raise it, as we expect, there wil be a flood of new bills, further curbing prices and lifting yields." Thanks!

    • @DiamondNestEgg
      @DiamondNestEgg  16 годин тому

      Sorry, just seeing this now. We get so many comments sometimes, we don't catch all of the member ones. Not sure it matters at this point, but the recent dip in T-Bill yields has been primarily driven by the cut in the Fed Funds rate.

  • @LarryRoth-d9m
    @LarryRoth-d9m 17 днів тому

    The historical rate for 20 year treasuries is about 4.6%. Today it went up to 4.86%. Sure looks like a reasonable time to buy. The way I look at it, if I retire is 4.8% good enough for me to live on for 20 years? No one has a crystal ball, but reasonable assumptions can be made. Can a financial advisor get you 4.8% guaranteed for 20 years? Plus no state tax on treasuries.

  • @pete3579
    @pete3579 Місяць тому +2

    Fed cuts rates and bond rates go up? Sounds alot like more inflation to me

  • @cayankeelord3730
    @cayankeelord3730 Місяць тому +1

    What does everyone think about the ETF TLTW? Pays monthly with an annual rate of about 12% I don't see any big down sides to this. I've held 1000 shares for about a year and like that monthly income. Yes, it varies a little from month to month, but that's no big deal for me.

    • @TuskerHK
      @TuskerHK Місяць тому +1

      The price has fallen 11% in 1 yr......

  • @742East3rd
    @742East3rd Місяць тому

    25 Bonds is considered a round lot … at minimum gets a good price on the secondary

  • @christophcollier
    @christophcollier Місяць тому

    If the using “rule of 72” is less than twenty, buy via dollar cost averaging as often as possible.

  • @742East3rd
    @742East3rd Місяць тому

    What about the coming 2 yr Variable Note? Now at 4.71% until January reset

  • @mmt44y
    @mmt44y Місяць тому

    OID on TIPS - this week reopening will sell at a premium according to fidelity quote today. Does Fidelity OID reporting give the correct amount for a premium buy? Do I have to report adjustment of the Fidelity OID?

  • @teacherdavid--eatplaylearn5013
    @teacherdavid--eatplaylearn5013 Місяць тому

    Thank you for your information. 🤓👍
    God bless you 😇💕
    Make America HEALTHY again in EVERY sections 💪🇺🇸👍

  • @briandarnell1809
    @briandarnell1809 Місяць тому

    I bought 20 year Freddie Mac investment grade bonds at 6.0% last week. They are callable but I'm happy to get 6.0 for 1 year or 20 years. Freddie Mac will never default. 2008 proved that and Freddie Mac is not in conservatorship under FHFA. The gov't won't allow a default of our mortgage backbone.

  • @sco0tpa
    @sco0tpa Місяць тому +2

    I would like to to see a discussion of 'bond vigilantes'.

  • @Bart9349
    @Bart9349 Місяць тому +1

    Were they terminating the intermittent 20-year bond auctions soon?

  • @sbar39
    @sbar39 Місяць тому +8

    Waiting for 7 on 20 year

    • @kirkhamster0024
      @kirkhamster0024 Місяць тому

      You really think it could go up to 7%?

    • @sbar39
      @sbar39 Місяць тому +1

      @kirkhamster0024 in the 90s we hit 8.28

    • @kirkhamster0024
      @kirkhamster0024 Місяць тому

      @sbar39 would be awesome if it got up there. I would offload everything on the LT treasury and agency bonds. Use coupon payments on quality dividend growth etfs.

  • @srercrcr
    @srercrcr Місяць тому +3

    Don't do it. If rates soar down the road...😮

  • @Bondbeer
    @Bondbeer Місяць тому +3

    Good video as always.

  • @juandiegas8211
    @juandiegas8211 Місяць тому +5

    Shortest terms possible and 5% minimum. Otherwise, look elsewhere.

  • @pk4459
    @pk4459 Місяць тому +1

    With the current domestic and international political instability, and our ever rising national debt, my instinct is to well stay away from any long-term fixed income instruments. It's pretty much a spin of the roulette wheel predicting interest rates going forward into 2025.

  • @tacocruiser4238
    @tacocruiser4238 Місяць тому +1

    Buying 20-year bonds at 70 years old is insane. The odds of you living to age 90 are less than 50%.

    • @mr.j2776
      @mr.j2776 Місяць тому +2

      So - let me ask: Are you saying we need to cash everything out before we pass? Some of us just want a decent rate of return in a no-risk investment.

    • @pdouglas3866
      @pdouglas3866 Місяць тому +2

      I'm 71 and have bought a bunch of them. My younger spouse will be glad I did one day, should I die. And my parents lived to be in their 90's, so it seems reasonable to me. Now on the 30 year bond, I would agree with you!

    • @mr.j2776
      @mr.j2776 Місяць тому

      @@pdouglas3866 Good for you. My wife is older - but who knows who is going to reach 90 or 100. For us -it's a portion of our investments. We have plenty of other positions -so I doubt if we would sell the 20 year bonds. But if we did - say in 15 years - well we would have earned a lot of interest by then. And rates could be higher - so they would sell above par. No worries.

  • @kc6715
    @kc6715 Місяць тому +1

    Inquiring minds want to know, are you still funding your ladder?

  • @MarionBlair
    @MarionBlair Місяць тому +1

    Too long. Investment grade intermediate corporate ETF like VCIT paying 5%?. 7 year maturity.

  • @gregoryreddy8411
    @gregoryreddy8411 Місяць тому

    Buy TMV.

  • @jimk7964
    @jimk7964 Місяць тому +2

    The brokered CD rates are underwhelming. I can do better with a local bank and CU, e.g. 5.1% for 10 and 15 mo. maturities.

    • @gregh7457
      @gregh7457 Місяць тому

      which platform do you use? i see better rates on etrade compared to schwab. also on schwab i've noticed schwab cd's that i've bought in the past hold their value better than bank issued cd becuase they keep a more liquid market for their own cd's

  • @JohnAnderson-o8l
    @JohnAnderson-o8l Місяць тому

    I can purchase this bond directly from the U.S. Treasury webiste correct?

  • @kamarco4839
    @kamarco4839 Місяць тому +1

    You make me nervous when you say “no default” situation. Heaven help us if the US defaults.

  • @mr.j2776
    @mr.j2776 Місяць тому +1

    OK. Call me crazy. I'm 67 and my wife is older. A while back, I picked up $20,000 in 20 year T bonds at 4.75% and I paid a discounted rate. 🙂 I also had $20,000 in 20 year T bonds at 4.5%. Rates were falling at the time - and I wanted to add to this position. This particular cusip was now priced at 103.593. Found a different 20 year cusip (also at 4.5% priced at 101.664). SO - I sold the 20 T bonds that I had bought at discount, and bought $30,000 of a different cusip at 101.664. Small profit.😁 Wife and I have enough assets so we do not have to worry about selling at a loss. We might be gone before the T bills mature - but who cares? We're getting a decent return (comparable to a 7 year MYGA rate from 2022.

  • @dbest4755
    @dbest4755 Місяць тому

    Jennifer , You are not 70 ! C'mon man...