Liquidity Crunch 2025: Refinancing Crisis Incoming?

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  • Опубліковано 12 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 130

  • @maggielake-talkingmarkets
    @maggielake-talkingmarkets  2 дні тому +69

    Connect with me on Substack: maggielake.substack.com
    00:00 - Introduction: Global Debt and Inflation Risks
    00:01:20 - The Impact of Massive Government Debt
    00:03:40 - Liquidity’s Role in Financial Markets
    00:06:14 - Inflation and Debt Maturity Concerns
    00:10:10 - Federal Reserve’s Policy Dilemma
    00:15:00 - The Potential Recession vs. Debt Management Debate
    00:18:10 - Bond Market Volatility and Risks
    00:25:30 - China’s Role in the Global Dollar Demand
    00:32:40 - Japan’s Debt Challenges and Yen Weakness
    00:37:50 - Real Assets as Inflation Hedges
    00:45:20 - Closing Thoughts: The Importance of Inflation Control

  • @ArthurMatthews-q7c
    @ArthurMatthews-q7c 4 години тому +97

    The current market buzz certainly offers a fascinating viewpoint. It's quite startling to witness such bold predictions about the future trajectory of certain cryptos and stocks. The fervor around AI and the robo-taxi concept appears to be inflated. Amidst this, it's essential to keep one's feet on the ground and not be swayed by these forward-looking statements. My strategy in this climate has been to trade judiciously, secure profits, and I can't praise Alison Bruce enough for her stellar work in analyzing charts, trades, and techniques. Her expertise has been instrumental in expanding my portfolio to a whopping $547k in just 3 weeks. I would highly recommend her to anyone looking to grow their investments.

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      @pinkk5727 4 години тому

      Got a chance to benefit from her services a few weeks ago and it has been a very smooth experience.

    • @Adnancorner-p1h
      @Adnancorner-p1h 4 години тому

      I’ve seen many positive comments about Alison Bruce. Can someone guide me on how to reach her?

    • @CalvinCooper-k7t
      @CalvinCooper-k7t 4 години тому

      The fact that i got to learn and earn from her program is everything to me think about it, it's a win win for both ways

    • @ArthurMatthews-q7c
      @ArthurMatthews-q7c 4 години тому

      Alisonbruce… that’s her name on

    • @ArthurMatthews-q7c
      @ArthurMatthews-q7c 4 години тому

      Tg

  • @warrenburn7058
    @warrenburn7058 День тому +3

    Outstanding guest. Thank you Maggie. Michael has been very accurate with his outlook.

  • @mkriskt
    @mkriskt Годину тому

    Thanks Maggie and Michael - wonderful discussion, lots of insights. God bless!

  • @edwardkierklo9757
    @edwardkierklo9757 2 дні тому +3

    I have found your interviews to be among the best. I am familiar thus far with all the great guests and looking forward to new ones I might not be familiar with.

  • @largocaballero4914
    @largocaballero4914 2 дні тому +2

    Epic Michael Howell - you did well get more than most from him. Thank you.

  • @lak1294
    @lak1294 3 дні тому +15

    Michael is making great points, especially: lower interest rates don't necessarily equal increasing liquidity and, if higher growth (as Trump promises) reignites inflation, the higher prices individuals and companies have to pay reduces cash available for investment and the stock market.

    • @golanheights9000
      @golanheights9000 3 дні тому +1

      Plenty of deflationary growth to be had.

    • @omrit2
      @omrit2 2 дні тому

      He's wrong. Liquidity will continue to rise with expanding fiscal demands and money debasement.

    • @bobbykanae
      @bobbykanae 2 дні тому +1

      At least with lower interest rates people will have access to cheaper capital again, the economy sucks hard because during the low interest rate environment the gov was competing against businesses and citizens with an unfair advantage of endless money printing. The collective goal is to increase productivity and efficiency or we’ll be back to square one (or worse)

    • @lennybriscoe6133
      @lennybriscoe6133 День тому

      ​@@golanheights9000Only in an Austrian wet dream that never happens.

  • @dnsinogeorgos
    @dnsinogeorgos 3 дні тому +6

    Maggie you did it again, can't wait for what's coming up next. Amazing insights as always 🔥

  • @skillz4life360
    @skillz4life360 День тому +1

    Howell is top 5 of global macro imo. Great video

  • @Exliptic
    @Exliptic 18 годин тому

    Maggie you are the best interviewer!

  • @grooves.x
    @grooves.x 3 дні тому +13

    Waiting for Michael Howell!!!

  • @brianhanly7280
    @brianhanly7280 2 дні тому

    Great interview, always love to hear Michael Howell's perspectives

  • @barilibill4749
    @barilibill4749 2 дні тому +1

    Maggie, could you have Brent Johnson on your show? He’s on all the financial shows, but I would like you (best financial interviewer) because you always know how to bring out different questions than he

    • @omrit2
      @omrit2 2 дні тому

      He's a broken record, and mostly wrong in past 2 years.

  • @meiko_kaji
    @meiko_kaji 3 дні тому +1

    Good talk. Agree 100%. But he ignores the possibility the Fed is NOT independent. It more easily explains their contradictory actions, comments and timing.

  • @riffsoffov9291
    @riffsoffov9291 2 дні тому

    From S&P Global's Q3 earnings call:-
    Now, turning to Ratings, where we saw revenue growth accelerate to 36%, materially exceeding our internal expectations. Transaction revenue grew by 83% in the third quarter, driven by strong activity, particularly in investment-grade and high-yield bonds during what has historically been a seasonally quiet summer period.
    I'm fairly sure that when I listened, the transaction revenue was linked to the volume of debt being issued, but I can't find that in a transcript. Anyway, I'm wondering if the 83% growth could signal an early start to liquidity getting stretched relative to the debt that needs refinancing. I'm very wary of drawing anything like a firm conclusion, due to my lack of expertise, but maybe someone can tell me if it's a big deal or a nothingburger, or knows someone who can.
    Thanks for the video Maggie, great guest!

  • @AnthonyGiallourakis
    @AnthonyGiallourakis 3 дні тому +6

    Brilliant interview. Highly recommended.💫💫💫

    • @maggielake-talkingmarkets
      @maggielake-talkingmarkets  2 дні тому +1

      Thank you, Michael was awesome!

    • @AnthonyGiallourakis
      @AnthonyGiallourakis 2 дні тому

      @@maggielake-talkingmarkets Yes. Few people understand both the reality of the current financial markets and are willing to talk so clearly and frankly about it. I have sent links to this video to several managers and advisors, strongly suggesting they take Michael's opinion into consideration.

    • @AnthonyGiallourakis
      @AnthonyGiallourakis 22 години тому

      @@maggielake-talkingmarkets Something to think about. What if Israel proceeds with a strike on Iranian oil production now? Biden supports with the US military to gain new administration favor. US gets higher oil prices (more tax revenue). Russia gets the same (deal to end the Ukraine war on acceptable terms). Musk sells electric cars..... China loses and has to buy more US and Russian oil at much inflated prices (profits). Israel ends the means by which the Iranians can support the multi-front proxy assaults. Inflation picks up (but it's on the Biden watch). This cannot happen once the new administration is in, because it will tag them with the negative associated with +$120 oil.

  • @angelawinstone7236
    @angelawinstone7236 2 дні тому +1

    Maggie, so pleased I found you, after you left Real Vision! You are a brilliant interviewer. You keep the pace well, and always steer the questions in such a thoughtful and intelligent way. Thank you for having Michael Howell on. He’s the liquidity Grand Pooba! Please have him on once a quarter, to keep on top of this critical element affecting markets.

  • @detectiveofmoneypolitics
    @detectiveofmoneypolitics 2 дні тому +1

    Detective of Money Politics is following this very informative content cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank from Melbourne Australia 😊

  • @thecarpenter645
    @thecarpenter645 2 дні тому

    One thing that we all have in common with liquidity is what goes with liquidity and flows in the opposite direction to liquidity, it’s good collateral and that’s what’s going to affect the availability of liquidity a lot. Just my observation only.

  • @thehungergames8918
    @thehungergames8918 2 дні тому +2

    Gold and silver are not a bad idea to hold.

  • @artfuldiggs2206
    @artfuldiggs2206 3 дні тому +2

    Good guest, good questions. Thank you. The next few months and years could be very interesting. I plan to stay tuned to your show.

  • @ronaldphoong
    @ronaldphoong 2 дні тому +2

    The more the country borrows, inflation continues to grow. It's common sense. 😅

  • @Stev616L-d2d
    @Stev616L-d2d 2 дні тому

    Great stuff guys…… the real stuff !

  • @Venkatmohan2000
    @Venkatmohan2000 2 дні тому

    Debt is Exactly equal to Liquidity. Period. One person’s asset is the counter party’s liability.

  • @jmcmob608
    @jmcmob608 18 годин тому

    Thank you very much...

  • @RWROW
    @RWROW 3 дні тому +1

    Maggie, hi and thanks. I think you are in David Lin's class in terms of perceptive questions. Just read Lacy Hunt's latest economic analysis from Hoisington's site and his take seems counter to Mr. Howell's. He expects deflation. Yet both have credible supporting arguments. Am I right in seeing them as contrary views, and why are they so different? Be good to hear one react to the other, or a conversation between these two.

  • @smsfelipe
    @smsfelipe День тому

    Still don't get how higher demand for treasuries due to refinancing wall is negative for liquidity. They will simply issue as much as needed.

  • @bit5tr3am
    @bit5tr3am 2 дні тому +1

    Thanks for having Michael on, he’s terrific

  • @fvensson6200
    @fvensson6200 21 годину тому

    What about inflating the debt away like Gromen suggests is the only way out? Isn’t that more likely than the government decreasing defense and social security? And how does that not equal increased liquidity?

  • @waltertodd4479
    @waltertodd4479 3 дні тому +2

    Trumps hand isnt tied by the finance / bonds markets. He intends to reduce regulatory burdens. Growth will come by freeing or unrestricting markets to do what they do best.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 дні тому

      You are dilusional. Sorry Bro: Trump has said he'll bring down mortgage rates - even though 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy. Trump's victory even spurred a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, sending mortgage rates higher. And the only thing that solves the debt crisis is more debt. Problem is inflation is really high and stock market valuations are 4 times as high then when he was last in. NO next we go down... how we get there I am not sure. It could be a hyperinfatioanry depression, an out right deflationary depression, or staglfationary deprssion the likes we have never seen. But we get one of those pick. Growth is not coming... we inflate so bad people can't afford anything. Who is going to be buying all this stuff at all time highs... with the purchasing power of the dollar going down... and now with Trump back on office even fast? I think folks think the next 15 years looks like the last 15 years and I think they are very wrong. Next I think we pay for the "sins of the father (both sides)". We just need to watch that 10 year yield it tells all. And it doesn't listen to Trump or Powell or Harris or any of those clowns !!!

  • @thomasthornton5125
    @thomasthornton5125 2 дні тому +10

    Debt junkies will fix the problem of too much debt with... more debt

    • @asclepiushermestrismegistu7489
      @asclepiushermestrismegistu7489 2 дні тому +1

      Afterall the same people who created the mess has the solutions. Moving along nothing will be fixed.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 дні тому

      i think that is true until we get a bond market revolt... Like I don't know, the FED cutting rates and yields going up not down. We might just get our faces ripped right off. 😂

  • @brian00182
    @brian00182 2 дні тому

    Thank you, great conversation!

  • @gussoldtimeradioshows4902
    @gussoldtimeradioshows4902 2 дні тому +2

    WRONG...Liquity faucet is being turned on in a couple months. Low rates, low taxes, low inflation

  • @peterbedford2610
    @peterbedford2610 3 дні тому +2

    The gov now requires high liquidity and inflation to keep running.
    Howell has been on point for years now

  • @davidkteacher6933
    @davidkteacher6933 3 дні тому +7

    Great guest

  • @danfarrand9072
    @danfarrand9072 2 дні тому +1

    Who cares what the interest bill is as long as Treasury can sell debt. That is the way government will always think. Why talk about raising taxes when people dont want to hear it and it's easy to sell more debt. As long as there are debt buyers, then debt is the answer.

  • @Richard-y5u
    @Richard-y5u 3 дні тому +4

    Will all end in tears just like his first term, I doubt Musk and Trump will even be talking by the time he takes office. Liquidity may well be coming to an end sooner than Michael thinks.

  • @danfarrand9072
    @danfarrand9072 2 дні тому

    Lets also remember that higher interest rates means higher income to creditors.

  • @JohnInvest17
    @JohnInvest17 2 дні тому

    Michael Howell, the legend, the guru of Global Liquidity!

  • @thomasthornton5125
    @thomasthornton5125 2 дні тому +1

    good conversation.

  • @masonsteed7835
    @masonsteed7835 День тому

    Not a peep on balance sheet policy from the Fed was tragic

  • @thetruthrenegade
    @thetruthrenegade День тому

    Aha Moment thanks to Michael, Like Bud Fox said in Wallstreet, Everyone is doing it. EVERYONE IS PLAYING THE DEBT REFINANCE GAME....Your Parents, Your friends on their houses, Small Business owner, Mega Cap Businesses, Gov's Etc.

  • @AnonymousanonymousA
    @AnonymousanonymousA 8 годин тому

    heard healthcare was the highest cost to GDP In the USA in 2020

  • @sumitomoO0O
    @sumitomoO0O День тому

    when bond yields run higher, Trump will not increase taxes, he will force FED to do yield curve control and he will say inflation is a good thing because it shows the economy is vibrant

  • @Louis-fn2nq
    @Louis-fn2nq День тому

    I would like a debate between Howell and Raoul Pal because it seems you guys have completely opposing views

  • @SoleilRoiLe
    @SoleilRoiLe 2 дні тому +1

    No more subsidies. Do not treat "interest paid" as a tax deductible "expense". And don't tax interest income. Yes, this should apply to individuals and businesses. Mortgage interest paid by individuals and businesses should not be subsidized as an "tax deduction". Share buybacks should be from retained earnings. Tax laws should be simple. And enforced.

  • @Venkatmohan2000
    @Venkatmohan2000 2 дні тому

    Deflation is the major bogey I see next year. Not inflation.

  • @georgelien
    @georgelien 2 дні тому

    I cannot agree with him more 😂 This is why I have been trading 30Y bonds and TLT ETF, of which, giving me 8% and 15% returns since 2023

  • @klmn2000
    @klmn2000 2 дні тому +4

    A masterclass in talking a lot without saying anything at all.

  • @vincentmurphy9252
    @vincentmurphy9252 2 дні тому

    We need a depression not recession but your right 100% we need a hard recession like end of 70s type

  • @omrit2
    @omrit2 2 дні тому

    Howell is wrong about the debt wall and refinancing puting pressure on liquidity. The Fed will expand it's balance sheet to support ever rising fiscal spending. Global liquidity will continue to be on the rise.

  • @to2455
    @to2455 День тому

    Massive Debt Issuance.. Unparalleled Financial Engineering .. Globally Aging Populations.. Short Term Inflation.. Looong Term Deflation…!!

  • @adamm2716
    @adamm2716 2 дні тому

    i don't mind powell staying i rather have the fed and the exc at odds, it's part of what made trumps first term work much better than when the fed aligns with the exc and you get what we got last 3 years

  • @raw-bot9251
    @raw-bot9251 День тому

    Maggie and Raoul Pal ahve branched off building their own channels. It's some strategy that's got to do with revenue generation I'm sure!

  • @MissMyRyan
    @MissMyRyan 2 дні тому

    $BTC currently, ATH: $80,500 USD

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 дні тому

      Just me.. I think BTC goes below 15k before it goes to a million. Just know you might be in for a bit of ride. That sell off is not a sell event... it is a massive back the truck up long event.

  • @barrettl2473
    @barrettl2473 День тому

    It’s so funny to hear people say bitcoin just tracks with risk on assets or even that it is correlated to liquidity..
    There are very few risk assets with anywhere near its performance in the last whatever timeframe… and has global liquidity gone up %8700000 or whatever in 15 years? 😂😂

    • @barrettl2473
      @barrettl2473 День тому

      You guys are minimizing an asset that you don’t understand and I would suggest not talking about finance going forward until you do. The world has changed.

  • @wyattgormley3129
    @wyattgormley3129 2 дні тому

    Not sure it’s hedge funds buying treasuries out of the Cayman and Luxembourg, fairly sure it’s banks…

  • @adamm2716
    @adamm2716 2 дні тому

    did he really just say trump's not interested in fixing the fascial problems? there is going to be a new committee dedicated to just that. has he even been paying attention?

  • @barilibill4749
    @barilibill4749 2 дні тому

    Sorry, sent send accidentally; you have a way of getting different answers by your questions

  • @ZoomedOut2020
    @ZoomedOut2020 2 дні тому

    Wonderful insights and perspectives….
    I’ve spent the past week asking the tea leaves whether Trump is the next Hoover- or is he perhaps the next FDR..??
    I’m going with the Hoover template….The Great Fixer gets handed the steaming bag of 💩 poo…👀👀

  • @togoni
    @togoni 3 дні тому +2

    👏👏

  • @seymorefact4333
    @seymorefact4333 2 дні тому

    ✅✅NEED TRUMP NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES from his prior term! and ZERO ZERO TAXES ON INCOME, CAPITAL GAINS, SOCIAL SECURITY, TIPS, etc! this will jump start the ECONOMY with more hiring and buying! ✅✅

  • @bluesky2145
    @bluesky2145 2 дні тому

    I don't think you'll find Trump raising taxes because he wants to pander to the rich and also he doesn't care if half the government gets laid off. I don't think you're quite understanding how this nut job works

  • @far1762
    @far1762 2 дні тому

    Vedem, cine, are, dreptate, myine, seara, totuy, gata, tympu, nu, sta, în, lok⌛, ce, zycy?

  • @asclepiushermestrismegistu7489

    Are americans willing to let go of the snap, ebt etc benefits? Will you give up your car? Let's start there?

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 дні тому

      Well i think inflation comes roaring back while growth slows (regardless of what folks think is going to happen) so stagflation like the world has never seen. They are not just going to give up their car... but they are going to give up their jobs, and their houses too. I worry for folks.

  • @adamm2716
    @adamm2716 2 дні тому

    most of the economist i've watch interviews for are worried about deflation from trump policies and he's worried about inflation, interesting

  • @RWROW
    @RWROW 3 дні тому +3

    Trump has a history of defaultingon his debt. Will he do it with government debt?

    • @asudbury817
      @asudbury817 2 дні тому +1

      Great point 👏

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 дні тому +1

      Or he just doens't pay it... but I hear you. I think we are at greater risk now of a US default than in any other time in history. He goes and screws around too much not only is Japan and China gonne even stop buying less US Debt (now net sellers), the EU is going to join in ... and if that happens that leaves one option.. and that option is for the FED to come in and be the buyer of last resort... so monitiaztion of the debt which make inflation surge and people around the world to want our debt even less. And this is exactly what I think happens.

    • @peterbedford2610
      @peterbedford2610 День тому

      Defaults on most of his promises, actually

  • @Mantaray911
    @Mantaray911 2 дні тому +1

    08:45 shoutout to Brent J and his $ Milkshake Theory.

  • @PonziZombieKiller
    @PonziZombieKiller 2 дні тому

    Black ☠️ Monday

  • @illfunk1967
    @illfunk1967 Годину тому

    350 trillion debt! 😳 that’s a result of money creation right and increase in money supply is inflation.. let me know if my understanding is wrong. Not as clever as this guy 😂

  • @russelasutilla8500
    @russelasutilla8500 2 дні тому

    🙋🏞️🌻❤️

  • @davebrewer7170
    @davebrewer7170 2 дні тому

    Idiot comments Trump won’t raise taxes Duh Invalidates all comments

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 дні тому

      Agree but he does do this again: But he was deadly serious about cutting taxes, and his signature legislative achievement, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, gave corporations a 40 percent discount on their taxes. It also delivered one of the single largest tax cuts for the wealthy in U.S. history, with the richest 0.1 percent of Americans getting a tax cut that was 277 times larger than that of middle-class households. While the bill didn't live up to its promises of higher pay for workers and increased economic growth, it did line the pockets of shareholders and CEOs, and added $1.9 trillion to the deficit. Are you rich? Just curious?

    • @davebrewer7170
      @davebrewer7170 2 дні тому

      @ his tax cuts benefited working class, whose salaries expanded during Trump 4 years. Portion of total pie going to lowest quartile of workers went DOWN during Obama terms and during Biden term. Stop going with slogans and focus on facts. Biden policies INCREASED the wealth gap. I suspect we are fully aligned that a large and increasing wealth gap is bad for society and bad for America. We are aligned on that goal ? Trump policies resulted in progress towards narrowing the wealth gap and Biden policies increased wealth gap. Those are facts

    • @peterbedford2610
      @peterbedford2610 День тому

      No, he said it was highly unlikely

  • @hankhenry5902
    @hankhenry5902 3 дні тому +1

    Trump is moving the bureaucracy out of DC out to the various states around the country. Right there 10 to 15 % of bureaucrats will quit or retire. Government spending will drop and the private sector, manufacturing will sore. Howell is far too negative!

    • @peterbedford2610
      @peterbedford2610 2 дні тому

      Yes. And Santa ivlause is real😂

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 дні тому

      There is no way in hell this happens. It sounds good though. What would make the US Govt do some austerity would be that 10 year yield continuing to climb... that just might rip everyone's face off. Of course folks would look at it like a "financial accident, or crisis". It is not either .. it is coming because everyone has a needle in their arm... the drug... free money. It is going to kill us all. 😂