The sanctions have been deemed ineffective by most every economist on the planet; largely because Russia is now producing things internally, and keeping the profits. Those same economists admit that most of the sanctions damage the countries which have imposed them even more. But, hell! If the random guy on teh internet wants them to continue...Why not?
One of the major issues that was not discussed was the amount of nationalised/stolen western assets, and what russia would have to agree to in terms of compensation before the western companies might consider re-investing in russia. These very ongoing situations are what prevents Cuba and Venezuela going forward, because they won't agree settlement terms regarding the assets they nationalised/stole, and the very same situation would apply to russia. Russia has behaved like a thief to steal western businesses and assets, and you don't give an unrepentant thief a second chance until he has paid his dues for the previous offence. Russia has to completely leave Ukranian territory and agree compensation terms with all affected parties before it gets any second chance. Putin needs to lose, russia needs to appreciate what it has done wrong, and understand that it will cost to reset relations.
When Russia goes bankrupt it will find it has no friends. Who will want to invest in Russia when it is known that Russia cannot be trusted? Chinese businessmen will pick over the bones looking for natural resources they can buy for peanuts is about the best they can hope for.
Such a simplified view of something you obviously don't understand. Do you realise how many TRILLIONS in debt the US is? What about the Russian money and property seized by the West. This is not going to be good for the US or Russia sides
The future for russia is that the soldiers will turn around and go home. Will be like a sand grain at first then the dune moves, soldiers day dream of going home not victory
Not to mention the vast reparations that Russia would need to pay to Ukraine to make things right with Ukraine and the west. I would think those reparations would need to be in the trillions of dollars which would cost heaven knows what in rubles at the real exchange rate. On top of that by the end of the war Russia will have lost all of its military equipment in storage that took 80 years to accumulate. It will be incredibly expensive and difficult for Russia to replace all that military equipment, especially if Russia still doesn't have access to western components.
Thank you, Jason! Glad seeing your report in my feed. You always have great guests and good questions. Really appreciate you and your work. Slava Ukraini! Glory to the heroes and warriors! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 🇨🇦🇨🇦
@DominikGentener since India and China plus the rest of the BRICS countries ignore the sanctions how do you suppose the Russian economy is going to collapse. By the way it's growth forecast for 2025 is 4% whereas the US is at 2.4 %
@DominikGentener growth forecasts for Russia are based on fake information. Funds have been diverted from infrastructure and public goods. Putin is bleeding his country to build weapons.
That last question and its answer was (IMO) the best. Even IF Russia withdrew from Ukraine and sanctions were lifted the economy would not return to its pre-war condition. Investor confidence has been shattered due to the asset confiscations and will not soon return.
That's the outcome those in the Kremlin and military forces dread. It's likely going to be far worse than the 1990s and may end up being a full century before the various countries once in the Russian orbit pulling away completely.
I think it is worse than that, many well educated Russians of child rearing age have left the country as well as thise that have died or been injured by the war, Couple this with the huge number of injured who need caring for and a reduced budget and you can see many people will live in poverty and pain. Russia is no stranger to revolutions.
A currency's strength should be based on market conditions, but the Ruble's value is looking more and more like the Soviet Ruble's value - totally arbitrary on the official exchange but erratic on the black market. Anytime a regime needs to come up with a 'work-around' to avoid International restraints, it will cost more with middle-men and the other third parties claiming a piece of the action to facilitate transactions. Your crude oil example is a case in point. Oil purchasers are not concerned with production and delivery costs for the Russians, they pay the agreed 'FOB Destination' price for the commodity that reflects the world price (in U$Ds). Russian production inefficiencies and transportation overcoats must be absorbed by the Russian government that could result in a net loss in oil sales. Excluding the actual costs of foreign replacement equipment, the whole process results in a real devaluation of the Ruble's worth for Russian workers and consumers.
Exactly, the whole point of sanctions is not to cut off economic activities, which is just not possible, but to make it much more difficult and costly !
@@gregash7683 There is no cost for foreign oil workers and replacement parts, because they are not available any longer. The BIG Oil production companies are OUT and not going back. They know that in the long run, they will get back to drilling in Russia when Putin is out and the Russian army is a rag tag of no threat to anyone, and they can make their billions again…..
@annmariedeignan2596 I saw Hitler's and Trump's agenda in the false sign of hope "Arbeit Macht Frei" in Germany in the late 50's. I have traveled across the Continental U.S. since. Witnessed the extreme fascist right-wing and the extremist left... still MOST of Russia doesn't have indoor plumbing. They prefer building ineffective weapons of war...
Sanctions will be increased and enforced under the new American administration. What is important to understand is that the only way to stop the Russian economy from collapsing is by Russia itself taking action by ending the war in Ukraine. The western nations don’t necessarily want a collapsed Russian economy, that could disrupt economies of other nations, however they won’t take action to prevent it either. Russia hasn’t been a major player in the global economy since the beginning of the war due to sanctions and the global economy has adjusted to the lack of Russian imports by increasing imports from China and the US as well as other nations. Bottom line is Russia needs the global economy more than the global economy needs Russia…and Russia better realize that soon or their economy will be destroyed and it will take decades to recover… if they recover at all.
Actually Russia even wasn't a global player before the war. Its GDP was roughly the same as Italy's. But Italy is a small country and Russia is the biggest country in the world.
Sanctions will not be increased under Trump. He will do everything he can to help Putin. There is not one shred of evidence that Trump will help Ukraine. I wish this were not true but it is. Putin is hanging on in the hopes that Trump will save him.
But, wait, I thought everything was great in Russia? Could ABC, CBS and NBC possibly all be wrong? Bwahahaha. WHO on EARTH would ever turn to MSM propaganda when UA-cam provides in depth analysis by experts. From Perun, to Vlad Vexler, to Anders Nielsen, to Jake Broe, etc., there are a plethora of analysts to provide anybody with any analysis of almost every imaginable subject or issue…….
@ He is the dept chair at Indiana U, a very reputable institution. He is credentialed from very respectable universities - Purdue, etc - and has lived and worked in Ukraine and Europe. OF COURSE, one must be skeptical of all sources, but when you hear many respectable analysts coming to the same conclusion, and balance that against a Russian propagandist who tell us that Russia is experiencing only a 4% inflation rate while having a 20-25% interest rate at the state banks? That makes no sense. Cum grano salis, of course, but the spice is on the side of the doomsayers, not the Russian naysayers.
TOTALLY AGREE!!! And I am a regular viewer / subscriber to each of those channels and many more I imagine you are as well. The SMO is a total failure and putin will either admit defeat and withdraw - - or go down with his country's economy.
@@bc-guy852 Any other analysts you might recommend? I have found a million good sources for so many things on UA-cam, from BBQs to Surfing to Bikes to…………etc
Solid stuff, thank you. I may add that the almost only investor left in Russia is the government spending huge amounts on military manufacturing. Wiith a 21 % base interest rate, private investments are impossible.
@Comm.DavidPorter Not if they are at home, with their families, where they should be. This war never needed to happen, yet NATO has forced it to continue beyond all reasonable limits. Every penny that is added to the pot means that more people die. It needs to stop immediately.
@@annmariedeignan2596 look up the United States' yearly defense budget. Whatever Ukraine was provided is tinier than a small shred of that amount, and that's considering the fact that Ukraine doesn't receive this money in suitcases or via banking checks.
The US applies sanctions and never lift them. Cuba has had sanctions since 1962, Iran since 1971, Venezuela since the 80's, Russia since 2022. Russia has 50 years of sanctions at least ahead of them. Apart from Russia's nukes, they are actually a third world country.
Purchase of USD in order to go out for holidays has brought the Ruble value down. The scarcity of items that were normally made domestically when all domestic attention is gone to armament production has caused purchase of goods from foreign countries and thus devaluation of Ruble. Those Russians that were raising chickens 🐓 and produced eggs 🥚 for $4000 a year make $40,000 a year murdering and plundering and destroying Ukraine and eat 30% of chickens 🐔 and eggs 🍳 and potatoes 🥔 so the cost of these items has skyrocketed when there are less farmers and producers. Lastly the increase in the domestic price of petrol ⛽️ in Russia after downing 20% of refineries has affected raising the price of all goods and services.
I agree, except for russian cannon meat earning 40k, only the commanders would actually receive the promised pay, and then more from robbing their underlings
@@brinjoness3386 $40,000 is an approximation if you add up all the benefits it goes over this figure. But this figure only belongs to Rural Russia! In Moscow one gets $82000 to go in the meat grinder
Вы не сможете убедить кого-то принять ваши аргументы, проявляя ненависть, но вы можете заставить своего брата понять вашу точку зрения посредством настоящей дружбы. Война - это только для диких животных, а достойные похвалы персонажи подходят для человека. У меня есть степень магистра в области инженерии, каков ваш уровень образования, мой друг!?
Russian Ruble is basically worthless! Where can you spend it, other than Russia? Who wants to exchange it for strong currencies? 😊 Looking more like the isolated Soviet Union!😮
Even if Russia withdraws from Ukraine and sanctions are ended, there is another reason why it will take the Russian economy a long time to fully recover. Hundreds of thousands--if not a million--young Russian men have left the country to avoide being forced into the fighting. On average, those who have the resources, the knowledge, and the drive to leave the country are better educated than those who don't. This has been a huge Russian brain drain. Will they want to return after the war? Plus, Russia has lost about 200,000 soldiers in the war, and another 400,000 - 500,000 will return wounded. Many of the wounded will not be able to work at full capacity for a while. Some will continue to need medical care. Many will have PTSD. Those who return will be a drag on the Russian economy.
With the Ruble back at 0,0088 US$, Russia reminds me of the Black Knight from the film "Monty Python and the Holy Grail": "Oh, it's nothing, just a scratch!"😂
Christmas 2024 30,2024 Ruble hit 110 to the US Dollar. Look at the Graph, it showing 10% decrease in value every month. That indicates a more realistic estimation would be Inflation Rate or 100% per year. Putin can order what every he likes but printing money is a guaranteed way to destroy the economy
Didn't mention the impact of Ukraine’s destruction of Russia's oil refineries, shutting off pipelines, on the economy. Or if Ukraine hits russian ports exporting oil, such as St Petersburg
Does anybody know what can be done about Robert Fico(Holding meetings with Putin for gas) and Viktor Orban (Pretending to be a peacemaker and wanting to issue visas to questionable Russians giving access to the EU), who are EU members yet aid and abet Putin by cozying up?
And then to Vrubel, particularly his demon paintings, that closely resemble poo's clique 😆(visually, not in the implied symbolic meaning that is way more three-dimensional than his posse can hope to be)
russians orthodoxs from petersbourg ? they started to believe their own lies about their own greatness. In France we use the word "roublard" , "roublardise" it's comes from the ruble ' le rouble in French" "roublard" the "roublardise" is what Orthodox moscow Russian is made of, this is its trademark, the ruble ... and attitudes Machiavellian, cunning. , Orthodox moscow Russian is a trickster, a crook, a crook. And this since then? One Thousand Seven Hundred Twenty One (1721)
It has hard resources that do not devalue, but have a transit tax in some places due to the delivery trouble. They can get paid in reciprocal goods or external currency. They produce war material internally so the ruble trade value isnt essential to the war effort. They are fine for their primary mission.
It’s not that bad. It’s just high inflation, not hyperinflation like some countries have experienced. Even then, it doesn’t automatically result in regime change, even if we all wished that was the case.
I totally agree. As long as the henchmen are paid ten times the average salary, he will remain in power unless he loses the military. Mr Vagner showed this, but the FSB took their families and forced them to stop. Very unprofessional coup, and that won’t work in Russia, serfs be serfs be serfs forever. Never going to change there…
Once inflatiom rate reaches the event horizon of the inflation black hole there will be no way back; - it will be sucked in and disapear into oblivion. - Nobody ever came back from the other side - once you're sucked in, you're not reachable anymore from this side, you're simply lost beyond space and time ...
West prints bad paper for decades, ( both the USA and EU printed and gave away free billions in either currency during 2020 COVID pandemic( it was not in the budget), and the inflation is barely visible ( according to their governments). Russia does not trade with the West now for a couple of years ( except it was selling Uranium for American power plants, fertilizers and engines to NASA), Russia now mostly barters goods with China and India, among others.If the agreement is , for example, 50 planes from Russia for XYZ number of mopeds, cars or whatever else India has, it does not matter where either currency is trading at the time, one would think.
The MOEX Russia Index soared to the 2,650 mark on Friday, extending the rebound from the 21-month low of 2,377 touched this week! BUT THIS A FALCE HOPE! WHY!? Because this week Ruble was devalued 12% so in reality MOEX should have gone from 2377 to 2662! The valuation of the Russian stock is merely covering devaluation of Ruble
It doesn't play much role if it collapses or not, as long as the citizens of RF can buy enough bread and potatoes for their Rubles to feed themselves and that will be the case for a quite long time I guess...
Also do not forget that a large percentage of returning "warriors" are disabled one way or another, and will need financial help. Which will also drain the Russian budget. Count 600.000 Orcs, and going up monthly. Plus 200.000 buried body bags.
One month ago, the Russian Central Bank suspended trade in the ruble. This does not mean that rubles stopped being traded. It means that the ruble stopped being trading by licensed, publish exchange. This means that exchange has moved to the black market. I cant find any info about Russia, but I can give a comparision with Cuba. Cuba still allows official exchange, and black market exchange exists. The ofifical dollar exchange rate is 124 to the dollar. The black market rate was recently 320 to the dollar but is declining. That this says, is that the ruble black market rate is probably much higher than the 114 ruble-to-dollar rate at which the Central Bank froze the ruble.
Number one reason that Nabiullina is increasing the interest rate is to keep RUBLE valuable. If an oligarch has got 10 Billion Rubles he will not convert his Rubies to 900 million USD because his money will get 6% annual interest in USA Banks. So he invests in the Russian banks to get 21% but there is a catch in here! The ruble also may devalue 15% by the end of the year! So he has not lost and has not gained! Now let’s imagine that Ruble is forecasted to devalue 20% then all OLIGARCHS will convert their billions of Rubles to Dollar 💵! That will creat a vicious circle ⭕️ and rubles will go down faster! This is the reason Putin keeps Nabiullina!
Why don't you make public that still a lot of EU countries are buying Russian gas - and make public which countries? I'm not blaming Hungary or Slovakia because they really depend on Russian gas. Austria is richer and could find a way. The leader of the list is France but also Belgium and Spain are still buying Russian gas - without real need!
to get your theoretical R25 from the interest the exchange rate would have to remain stable for the one year until you can collect. Then you have the issue of how to repatriate your investment outside of Russia.
So funny a lot of this people talking about Russia economy going down for year but until now Russia still standing I love to see Putin going down but I stop believing this people called export wrong
Inflation does not come from Moon or Mars , it's the central bank printing paper money , is the literal meaning of inflation coming from INFLATE . The currency represents the wealth of a country , you can print paper money according to GDP created , if you print more you inflate the amount of paper that represents wealth, so worths less . Very easy , Very missed by everybody . A government prints paper money when GDP is not enough to cope with expenses . What are schools teaching ?
Not the central bank printing money alone is the main problem on Russias way to Hyperinflation, the Ruble Crisis is the main factor. Look at the charts, its going down sharply in every currency comparison worldwide.
@ArnoSchlick the lost of value of ruble due to world refuse to trade in rubles is the law of demand and offer, which is not inflation. A decade ago the swiss franc increased value to the high demand of the currency, to run away from other currencies .
@@ladislaobastetti2048 That's not what I meant: The Ruble crisis is the *cause* for the beginning Hyperinflation - there is scientifical bg that supports that!
@@ArnoSchlick of course I understand what you mean , of course you dont understand my answer and the science of economics, like the many improvised scientists that write crap
Why can't English as a second language speakers ever learn to use definite articles? Do they even try? It's not such a big deal but it is distracting and doesn't breed confidence in a supposed academic.
@@bruce4130actually they had in 90-s. Lead economy by 7 olygarchs they know what the collapse and poverty is what is real American democracy like the depocracy in Ukraine now with anti democratic coups and pro western dictator
And yet the dollar is continuously strengthening against the ruble (and the yuan). I agree that US debt is horrific, but at least there is a $28 trillion GDP supporting it. Investors are still buying US bonds in the expectation that Pres. Trump and his team can pare federal spending down and bring Treasury borrowing under control.
@@Comm.DavidPorter Don't connect the debt with a collapse. Dollar is sought after all over the world, and even more so in difficult times. Wich is the opposite of a collapse
This guy doesn’t understand your questions!? You asked If you reduce interest rate what will happen!? Answers he gives are all over!! He has no logical way of analysing
Correct, the data clearly shows this weakening. Remember that the BRICS concept was just imagined by a Goldman Sachs banker. It has diminishing validity over time.
If Russia does not withdraw from Ukraine the sanctions must stay.
Including CRIMEA!!!
@@bc-guy852hahaha Crimea is Russian so does Donbas and you can’t do anything about it because its Russian .. period
Sanctions hit you back hard and deep .. you suck with your policy of sanctions… disgusting 🤮
@@bc-guy852 Well ya, Crimea is part of Ukraine... I think it was implied.
The sanctions have been deemed ineffective by most every economist on the planet; largely because Russia is now producing things internally, and keeping the profits. Those same economists admit that most of the sanctions damage the countries which have imposed them even more. But, hell! If the random guy on teh internet wants them to continue...Why not?
One of the major issues that was not discussed was the amount of nationalised/stolen western assets, and what russia would have to agree to in terms of compensation before the western companies might consider re-investing in russia. These very ongoing situations are what prevents Cuba and Venezuela going forward, because they won't agree settlement terms regarding the assets they nationalised/stole, and the very same situation would apply to russia.
Russia has behaved like a thief to steal western businesses and assets, and you don't give an unrepentant thief a second chance until he has paid his dues for the previous offence.
Russia has to completely leave Ukranian territory and agree compensation terms with all affected parties before it gets any second chance.
Putin needs to lose, russia needs to appreciate what it has done wrong, and understand that it will cost to reset relations.
When Russia goes bankrupt it will find it has no friends. Who will want to invest in Russia when it is known that Russia cannot be trusted? Chinese businessmen will pick over the bones looking for natural resources they can buy for peanuts is about the best they can hope for.
😀😀😀😀😀размечтался...
Such a simplified view of something you obviously don't understand. Do you realise how many TRILLIONS in debt the US is? What about the Russian money and property seized by the West. This is not going to be good for the US or Russia sides
The future for russia is that the soldiers will turn around and go home. Will be like a sand grain at first then the dune moves, soldiers day dream of going home not victory
Not to mention the vast reparations that Russia would need to pay to Ukraine to make things right with Ukraine and the west.
I would think those reparations would need to be in the trillions of dollars which would cost heaven knows what in rubles at the real exchange rate.
On top of that by the end of the war Russia will have lost all of its military equipment in storage that took 80 years to accumulate.
It will be incredibly expensive and difficult for Russia to replace all that military equipment,
especially if Russia still doesn't have access to western components.
Excellent interview, thank you.
Thanks Kyiv Post team for helping the world understand. United we stand, Together er understand.
Slava Ukraini !!
Thank you, Jason! Glad seeing your report in my feed. You always have great guests and good questions. Really appreciate you and your work.
Slava Ukraini!
Glory to the heroes and warriors!
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 🇨🇦🇨🇦
Thank you Doctor Lugovskyy.
And thank you Doctor Smart!
🇺🇦🌻🇦🇺🐨 support from Australia to Ukraine 🇺🇦
Great work Jason
Thank you for this video. It is only a matter of time until the Russian economy collapses.
Let's hope it happens before the free world loses interest 🤞
🤞
@DominikGentener since India and China plus the rest of the BRICS countries ignore the sanctions how do you suppose the Russian economy is going to collapse. By the way it's growth forecast for 2025 is 4% whereas the US is at 2.4 %
@DominikGentener growth forecasts for Russia are based on fake information. Funds have been diverted from infrastructure and public goods. Putin is bleeding his country to build weapons.
@@FrancoisMouton-iu7jtlisten to all the highly skilled economists and the geo politicians not the russian botts its getting very serious for Russia
That last question and its answer was (IMO) the best. Even IF Russia withdrew from Ukraine and sanctions were lifted the economy would not return to its pre-war condition. Investor confidence has been shattered due to the asset confiscations and will not soon return.
That's the outcome those in the Kremlin and military forces dread. It's likely going to be far worse than the 1990s and may end up being a full century before the various countries once in the Russian orbit pulling away completely.
Uhm.....Russian economy has grown since then......dafaq is wrong with u
I think it is worse than that, many well educated Russians of child rearing age have left the country as well as thise that have died or been injured by the war, Couple this with the huge number of injured who need caring for and a reduced budget and you can see many people will live in poverty and pain. Russia is no stranger to revolutions.
A currency's strength should be based on market conditions, but the Ruble's value is looking more and more like the Soviet Ruble's value - totally arbitrary on the official exchange but erratic on the black market. Anytime a regime needs to come up with a 'work-around' to avoid International restraints, it will cost more with middle-men and the other third parties claiming a piece of the action to facilitate transactions. Your crude oil example is a case in point. Oil purchasers are not concerned with production and delivery costs for the Russians, they pay the agreed 'FOB Destination' price for the commodity that reflects the world price (in U$Ds). Russian production inefficiencies and transportation overcoats must be absorbed by the Russian government that could result in a net loss in oil sales. Excluding the actual costs of foreign replacement equipment, the whole process results in a real devaluation of the Ruble's worth for Russian workers and consumers.
Exactly, the whole point of sanctions is not to cut off economic activities, which is just not possible, but to make it much more difficult and costly !
@@gregash7683 There is no cost for foreign oil workers and replacement parts, because they are not available any longer. The BIG Oil production companies are OUT and not going back. They know that in the long run, they will get back to drilling in Russia when Putin is out and the Russian army is a rag tag of no threat to anyone, and they can make their billions again…..
Everyone overlooks war crimes and stolen children!! Economics be damned!
Thanks, Kyiv Post.
Thank you good program!
Russia should give up industrial production of weapons and learn to build bathrooms!
🇺🇸🌎💜
And you should get out and see the world for yourself instead of believing these ridiculous stereotypes.
@annmariedeignan2596 I saw Hitler's and Trump's agenda in the false sign of hope "Arbeit Macht Frei" in Germany in the late 50's. I have traveled across the Continental U.S. since. Witnessed the extreme fascist right-wing and the extremist left... still MOST of Russia doesn't have indoor plumbing. They prefer building ineffective weapons of war...
@@annmariedeignan2596what ridiculous stereo types?
@@annmariedeignan2596 Why not post a video of rural russia. Let's see how the peasants live in their hovels.
So they could then enable Russian’s to
Install stolen toilets.
Sanctions will be increased and enforced under the new American administration. What is important to understand is that the only way to stop the Russian economy from collapsing is by Russia itself taking action by ending the war in Ukraine. The western nations don’t necessarily want a collapsed Russian economy, that could disrupt economies of other nations, however they won’t take action to prevent it either. Russia hasn’t been a major player in the global economy since the beginning of the war due to sanctions and the global economy has adjusted to the lack of Russian imports by increasing imports from China and the US as well as other nations. Bottom line is Russia needs the global economy more than the global economy needs Russia…and Russia better realize that soon or their economy will be destroyed and it will take decades to recover… if they recover at all.
IMHO it is already too late for any action or situation saving Russia from bankruptcy. And yes, recovery will be extremely protracted.
Actually Russia even wasn't a global player before the war. Its GDP was roughly the same as Italy's. But Italy is a small country and Russia is the biggest country in the world.
Thks Putin the 250 billion of frozen west assets 😂@@petracastro6021
Sanctions will not be increased under Trump. He will do everything he can to help Putin. There is not one shred of evidence that Trump will help Ukraine. I wish this were not true but it is. Putin is hanging on in the hopes that Trump will save him.
ua-cam.com/video/HGAEkaDBiA8/v-deo.htmlsi=GCkgfshFYMczqrtz
Putin's edifice is a tower of lies...
But, wait, I thought everything was great in Russia? Could ABC, CBS and NBC possibly all be wrong? Bwahahaha. WHO on EARTH would ever turn to MSM propaganda when UA-cam provides in depth analysis by experts. From Perun, to Vlad Vexler, to Anders Nielsen, to Jake Broe, etc., there are a plethora of analysts to provide anybody with any analysis of almost every imaginable subject or issue…….
How do you know that this man is telling you the truth? Consider the source,
@ He is the dept chair at Indiana U, a very reputable institution. He is credentialed from very respectable universities - Purdue, etc - and has lived and worked in Ukraine and Europe. OF COURSE, one must be skeptical of all sources, but when you hear many respectable analysts coming to the same conclusion, and balance that against a Russian propagandist who tell us that Russia is experiencing only a 4% inflation rate while having a 20-25% interest rate at the state banks? That makes no sense. Cum grano salis, of course, but the spice is on the side of the doomsayers, not the Russian naysayers.
TOTALLY AGREE!!! And I am a regular viewer / subscriber to each of those channels and many more I imagine you are as well. The SMO is a total failure and putin will either admit defeat and withdraw - - or go down with his country's economy.
@@bc-guy852 Any other analysts you might recommend? I have found a million good sources for so many things on UA-cam, from BBQs to Surfing to Bikes to…………etc
If you want to know the truth about Russia. Konstantin from Inside Russia is the man to watch.
Good Job
Solid stuff, thank you. I may add that the almost only investor left in Russia is the government spending huge amounts on military manufacturing. Wiith a 21 % base interest rate, private
investments are impossible.
putin is hanging on by a thread
No he's not😂😂😂
@@blackmantravel6954 he's hung like a thread?
@@blackmantravel6954 Yes he's 🤣🤣🤣 do you still hope that trump will save your Putolini?
We can support Ukraine in their struggle. For example, by donating to United24 which funds important air-defense, demining, and drone programmes.
@@TauNomm What happened to the hundred's of billions of dollars which they've already received ?
@@annmariedeignan2596 Defense is very expensive. Soldiers must be fed and supplied.
@Comm.DavidPorter Not if they are at home, with their families, where they should be. This war never needed to happen, yet NATO has forced it to continue beyond all reasonable limits. Every penny that is added to the pot means that more people die. It needs to stop immediately.
@@annmariedeignan2596 look up the United States' yearly defense budget. Whatever Ukraine was provided is tinier than a small shred of that amount, and that's considering the fact that Ukraine doesn't receive this money in suitcases or via banking checks.
Please God !
The US applies sanctions and never lift them. Cuba has had sanctions since 1962, Iran since 1971, Venezuela since the 80's, Russia since 2022. Russia has 50 years of sanctions at least ahead of them. Apart from Russia's nukes, they are actually a third world country.
Purchase of USD in order to go out for holidays has brought the Ruble value down. The scarcity of items that were normally made domestically when all domestic attention is gone to armament production has caused purchase of goods from foreign countries and thus devaluation of Ruble. Those Russians that were raising chickens 🐓 and produced eggs 🥚 for $4000 a year make $40,000 a year murdering and plundering and destroying Ukraine and eat 30% of chickens 🐔 and eggs 🍳 and potatoes 🥔 so the cost of these items has skyrocketed when there are less farmers and producers.
Lastly the increase in the domestic price of petrol ⛽️ in Russia after downing 20% of refineries has affected raising the price of all goods and services.
I agree, except for russian cannon meat earning 40k, only the commanders would actually receive the promised pay, and then more from robbing their underlings
@@brinjoness3386
$40,000 is an approximation if you add up all the benefits it goes over this figure.
But this figure only belongs to Rural Russia!
In Moscow one gets $82000 to go in the meat grinder
Вы не сможете убедить кого-то принять ваши аргументы, проявляя ненависть, но вы можете заставить своего брата понять вашу точку зрения посредством настоящей дружбы. Война - это только для диких животных, а достойные похвалы персонажи подходят для человека. У меня есть степень магистра в области инженерии, каков ваш уровень образования, мой друг!?
Russian Ruble is basically worthless! Where can you spend it, other than Russia? Who wants to exchange it for strong currencies? 😊 Looking more like the isolated Soviet Union!😮
great job
Even if Russia withdraws from Ukraine and sanctions are ended, there is another reason why it will take the Russian economy a long time to fully recover. Hundreds of thousands--if not a million--young Russian men have left the country to avoide being forced into the fighting. On average, those who have the resources, the knowledge, and the drive to leave the country are better educated than those who don't. This has been a huge Russian brain drain. Will they want to return after the war? Plus, Russia has lost about 200,000 soldiers in the war, and another 400,000 - 500,000 will return wounded. Many of the wounded will not be able to work at full capacity for a while. Some will continue to need medical care. Many will have PTSD. Those who return will be a drag on the Russian economy.
スラーヴァ・．ウクライニ
With the Ruble back at 0,0088 US$, Russia reminds me of the Black Knight from the film "Monty Python and the Holy Grail": "Oh, it's nothing, just a scratch!"😂
110 rubles to a dollar
It is more likely 200 rubles to one US
I don't think anyone will be investing in Russia anytime soon .more
Christmas 2024 30,2024 Ruble hit 110 to the US Dollar. Look at the Graph, it showing
10% decrease in value every month.
That indicates a more realistic estimation would be Inflation Rate or 100% per year.
Putin can order what every he likes but printing money is a guaranteed way to destroy the economy
Good point!
Didn't mention the impact of Ukraine’s destruction of Russia's oil refineries, shutting off pipelines, on the economy.
Or if Ukraine hits russian ports exporting oil, such as St Petersburg
When the printing has started the end is near.
Does anybody know what can be done about Robert Fico(Holding meetings with Putin for gas) and Viktor Orban (Pretending to be a peacemaker and wanting to issue visas to questionable Russians giving access to the EU), who are EU members yet aid and abet Putin by cozying up?
Ukraine could "accidentally" pop that gas line B4 it leaves Russia. They have drones and Peklo missiles with the range, now.
FROM RUBEL TO RUBBEL 😅🤣🤣🤣😂🤣🤣🤣
From ruble to rubble.
Trouble for the rubble 😝
Neither of those are actual words.
And then to Vrubel, particularly his demon paintings, that closely resemble poo's clique 😆(visually, not in the implied symbolic meaning that is way more three-dimensional than his posse can hope to be)
Increase sanctions against putine and the Oligarchs
The ruble is crashing
Russia is living paycheck to paycheck. If Russia's car needs a new transmission, it's game over.
Putin knows there's plenty of oil out there without Russian oil .
russians orthodoxs from petersbourg ? they started to believe their own lies about their own greatness.
In France we use the word "roublard" , "roublardise" it's comes from the ruble ' le rouble in French"
"roublard" the "roublardise" is what Orthodox moscow Russian is made of, this is its trademark, the ruble ... and attitudes
Machiavellian, cunning. , Orthodox moscow Russian is a trickster, a crook, a crook. And this since then? One Thousand Seven Hundred Twenty One (1721)
It is far from the darkest hour yet.
Laurel and Hardy show what you want is not what you get. Negotiations are the real price you pay
It has hard resources that do not devalue, but have a transit tax in some places due to the delivery trouble.
They can get paid in reciprocal goods or external currency.
They produce war material internally so the ruble trade value isnt essential to the war effort.
They are fine for their primary mission.
"Poisoned challice" would aptly describe anyone unlucky enough to get the job at Russia's Central Bank?
It’s not that bad. It’s just high inflation, not hyperinflation like some countries have experienced. Even then, it doesn’t automatically result in regime change, even if we all wished that was the case.
I totally agree. As long as the henchmen are paid ten times the average salary, he will remain in power unless he loses the military. Mr Vagner showed this, but the FSB took their families and forced them to stop. Very unprofessional coup, and that won’t work in Russia, serfs be serfs be serfs forever. Never going to change there…
Perhaps not regime change, but it will make it harder for Putin to keep producing weapons and paying soldiers
I'm noticing that the USD has recently strengthened against many currencies.
And..factor in to the financial future the tremendous loss of Russian soldiers reducing working age males. ...
In the last couple weeks, the average value of the ruble has not really crashed, but, it IS oscillating wildly. What could be causing this?
Points of Market intervention by the central bank. If not crashing, very significant weakening.
Everything is collapsing and yet nothing is collapsing… chill dude
Wrong. Please listen to the words of the professor.
Food prices in Ukraine are up by 20-40% in a year
Once inflatiom rate reaches the event horizon of the inflation black hole there will be no way back; - it will be sucked in and disapear into oblivion. - Nobody ever came back from the other side - once you're sucked in, you're not reachable anymore from this side, you're simply lost beyond space and time ...
There is a video 1 year ago on Kyiv post. He said exactly the same.
The Putin ship is going down 😂😂😂
Finland has just arrested a Russian oil tanker.
West prints bad paper for decades, ( both the USA and EU printed and gave away free billions in either currency during 2020 COVID pandemic( it was not in the budget), and the inflation is barely visible ( according to their governments).
Russia does not trade with the West now for a couple of years ( except it was selling Uranium for American power plants, fertilizers and engines to NASA), Russia now mostly barters goods with China and India, among others.If the agreement is , for example, 50 planes from Russia for XYZ number of mopeds, cars or whatever else India has, it does not matter where either currency is trading at the time, one would think.
Ukraine's western democratic pension in Ukraine is now 3000-4000 hryvnas which is 80-100 US dollars
14:55 Dumbest question! answer Russia must stop the war and go home! Only with a change of regime will anything positive happen!
The MOEX Russia Index soared to the 2,650 mark on Friday, extending the rebound from the 21-month low of 2,377 touched this week!
BUT THIS A FALCE HOPE!
WHY!?
Because this week Ruble was devalued 12% so in reality MOEX should have gone from 2377 to 2662! The valuation of the Russian stock is merely covering devaluation of Ruble
So you're saying the Ruble is Rubble? Thank you for the interview. You RoCk!
It doesn't play much role if it collapses or not, as long as the citizens of RF can buy enough bread and potatoes for their Rubles to feed themselves and that will be the case for a quite long time I guess...
Question: when does Russian “savings” would go to zero? When those “special reserve” run out, Russian economy tanks.
FSB, will be guarateed FOOD, whilst other might get it, if they....deserve it.
Money, Rubel will become irrelevant.
( Sweden )
What's more important is the Ruble to Yuan exchange rate.
Basically the trend mirrors usd/rub. The ruble is weakening against all currencies. The Chinese and Indians are very happy at the moment.
12/30/2024: USD to Ruble: 1 : 110.5006. Less than 1 USD cent per ruble.
Here are a few tears for the ruble... QQQ
Also do not forget that a large percentage of returning "warriors" are disabled one way or another, and will need financial help. Which will also drain the Russian budget. Count 600.000 Orcs, and going up monthly. Plus 200.000 buried body bags.
What kind of a depraved, morally-bankrupt person makes comments like this? Shame on you.
@@annmariedeignan2596…..but are they wrong?
@@blein8988 What is their source for this information, and why do they only ever give these supposed "statistics" for one side?
When we need rational, focused leadership in the US, we have...
One month ago, the Russian Central Bank suspended trade in the ruble. This does not mean that rubles stopped being traded. It means that the ruble stopped being trading by licensed, publish exchange. This means that exchange has moved to the black market. I cant find any info about Russia, but I can give a comparision with Cuba. Cuba still allows official exchange, and black market exchange exists. The ofifical dollar exchange rate is 124 to the dollar. The black market rate was recently 320 to the dollar but is declining. That this says, is that the ruble black market rate is probably much higher than the 114 ruble-to-dollar rate at which the Central Bank froze the ruble.
Inside Russia channel had a better viewpoint about Ruble collapsing.
What does a collapsed Russian economy actually look like?
If only all academics were could speak so clearly. And this one isn't even a native English speaker!
Titanic
North Korea is Russias new population base.
( Sweden )
Number one reason that Nabiullina is increasing the interest rate is to keep RUBLE valuable.
If an oligarch has got 10 Billion Rubles he will not convert his Rubies to 900 million USD because his money will get 6% annual interest in USA Banks. So he invests in the Russian banks to get 21% but there is a catch in here! The ruble also may devalue 15% by the end of the year! So he has not lost and has not gained!
Now let’s imagine that Ruble is forecasted to devalue 20% then all OLIGARCHS will convert their billions of Rubles to Dollar 💵! That will creat a vicious circle ⭕️ and rubles will go down faster! This is the reason Putin keeps Nabiullina!
Why don't you make public that still a lot of EU countries are buying Russian gas - and make public which countries?
I'm not blaming Hungary or Slovakia because they really depend on Russian gas. Austria is richer and could find a way.
The leader of the list is France but also Belgium and Spain are still buying Russian gas - without real need!
Hi potatoe and butter prices Putin is doomed
high bread prices sparked the Arab Spring - and guess why the price of flour went up??? Putin closed down wheat exports for 2 years prior!!
What an asinine comment to make.
@RodneyVerge
Putin Mr. potato head 🥔 with Butter fingers! 🧈
Doomed by his own GREED!
@@annmariedeignan2596 Awww - - - has your copium run out ivan?
Population descresing in china and japan, just something for the "expert " to think about
Interesting
🎼Dream along with me, I'm on my way to a fantasy!
@@1943colin Yup. You're dreaming alright.
Exchange 1 USD for 110 Rub get 25 Rub interest @ 21%
Exchange 135 Rub for 1.20 USD .....? u go first
to get your theoretical R25 from the interest the exchange rate would have to remain stable for the one year until you can collect. Then you have the issue of how to repatriate your investment outside of Russia.
👍👍👍👍👍
I dont hear what they say. Their English is too hard to understand.
Subtitles are good! cC icon! Use it
@@bruce4130Have you tried turning it on?
May Russia finally collapse in 2025!
Слава Україні! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
So funny a lot of this people talking about Russia economy going down for year but until now Russia still standing
I love to see Putin going down but I stop believing this people called export wrong
China would come in with Belt and Roads, & build Russian industries up again.
Let it Collapse. Get Rid of Putin.
Gemach, gemach Jung’s - das ist reines Wunschdenken…😂
amit shah’s
Inflation does not come from Moon or Mars , it's the central bank printing paper money , is the literal meaning of inflation coming from INFLATE . The currency represents the wealth of a country , you can print paper money according to GDP created , if you print more you inflate the amount of paper that represents wealth, so worths less . Very easy , Very missed by everybody . A government prints paper money when GDP is not enough to cope with expenses . What are schools teaching ?
Not the central bank printing money alone is the main problem on Russias way to Hyperinflation, the Ruble Crisis is the main factor. Look at the charts, its going down sharply in every currency comparison worldwide.
@ArnoSchlick the lost of value of ruble due to world refuse to trade in rubles is the law of demand and offer, which is not inflation. A decade ago the swiss franc increased value to the high demand of the currency, to run away from other currencies .
@@ladislaobastetti2048 That's not what I meant: The Ruble crisis is the *cause* for the beginning Hyperinflation - there is scientifical bg that supports that!
@@ArnoSchlick of course I understand what you mean , of course you dont understand my answer and the science of economics, like the many improvised scientists that write crap
@@ladislaobastetti2048 Mr., I just cited the conclusions of Dr. Ingo Sauer from the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Which you obviously do not know.
Why can't English as a second language speakers ever learn to use definite articles? Do they even try? It's not such a big deal but it is distracting and doesn't breed confidence in a supposed academic.
according to the kyiv post russia's ruble has collapsed every other day for 3 years lol
only collapsed >70% over past ten years under putin. Just 30% to go lol
Quote: Russian economy could collapse! 'Collapse " specifically please give examples.. Thanks.
The definition of collapse is an issue, no one knows what will happen! Russians have been use to hard times!
@@bruce4130actually they had in 90-s. Lead economy by 7 olygarchs they know what the collapse and poverty is what is real American democracy like the depocracy in Ukraine now with anti democratic coups and pro western dictator
Both the dollar and the rouble are collapsing. American debt is horrific
How would you like to be paid? in rubles? rupees? rand? or US Dollars?
And yet the dollar is continuously strengthening against the ruble (and the yuan). I agree that US debt is horrific, but at least there is a $28 trillion GDP supporting it. Investors are still buying US bonds in the expectation that Pres. Trump and his team can pare federal spending down and bring Treasury borrowing under control.
@@Comm.DavidPorter Don't connect the debt with a collapse. Dollar is sought after all over the world, and even more so in difficult times. Wich is the opposite of a collapse
Silly comment really.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!!
This guy doesn’t understand your questions!? You asked If you reduce interest rate what will happen!? Answers he gives are all over!! He has no logical way of analysing
Say BRICS countries currencies are crashing.
в каком сне ты это увидел, умник ?
Correct, the data clearly shows this weakening. Remember that the BRICS concept was just imagined by a Goldman Sachs banker. It has diminishing validity over time.
Exchange one dollar for 110 rubles and then invest the rubles at 21% interest
Exchange 1 USD for 110 Rub get 25 Rub interest @ 21%
Exchange 135 Rub for 1.20 USD .....? u go first
... then exchange your rubles back to US Dollars at 150 rubles per US Dollar. Genius.
They are talking about loan interest rates not investment return interest rates.
YOUR TALK IS UTTER COMPLETE BULLCRAP
Nonsense to be discussing Russian economic policy as if it relates to the international economy! Other than oligarchs that have billions overseas!😊
Russia is actually pretty resilient.
No.. this is the end.. this will make 1990 look like a picnic
Apparently not.