Yes! He's back! I've also seen alpha cards remain relatively flat after a small up-tick of listings during the 30th fiasco. That to me is a bullish sign for alpha. It could mean that the MTG collectible market will consolidate towards original vintage cards like Alpha, but what the hell do I know.
My collection is a player’s collection. I understand your points and you cited to like in the market. Something about collecting a four of set in a binder truly makes me internally excited.
Welcome to 2023 everyone and glad to have Mike back with content! Hope everyone has a fantastic year! Looking forward to part 2 and i'll post some thoughts. Beautiful cards! As always thanks for sharing.
Roc of Kher Ridges artist Andi Rusu (amazing art) also illustrated Goblin Balloon Brigade. Both have similar fantastic art in unique style. Great video. Great Alpha cards (as always!)
Ohh yea, both have the striking style indeed! And both are fan favorites (I know more than one person obsessed with one or the other of those cards). Appreciate the comment 👍
Love it. An alpha hoarder myself, but in a different way. Only PSA 10 for me. Been awhile since I've added to my collection, but my cash is locked and loaded (and earning 4% in the meantime) waiting for a downturn. Alpha=historical. They'll always hold value. Love the story behind it starting with selling out at GenCon Wisconson back in the day.
Last couple of months I’ve shifted away from Alpha to take advantage of the softness in Legends tier 1 cards, and also to make some progress on graded Arabian nights. But I’ll always circle back to Alpha. Very nice clone! 👍👍
you having 100 copies of Jump makes me feel better about having over 600 copies of an Arabian Nights common !!! i'm not the only one that's insane....let the madness flow !
🤣 there’s plenty of madness to go around! If anyone comes up short, I’ve got plenty to spare haha. 600, though, I’m impressed! I only have 2 cards at that quantity, from my two buyout experiments.
@@AlphaHoarder that's how my journey started too....i wanted to see how the market would react....i think my first 300 or so i bought within a 30 day period.....literally a "here today, gone tomorrow" scenario.... and then it became, "i want 1% of the whole entire print run"....i'm a little over halfway to that goal
Indeed! The last 18 months they’ve been a pretty reliable source of clean alpha cards. They auction about a third of them, list another third on eBay only, and put the rest on their own site. They’re getting more aggressive with prices the last ~9 months, but every now and then, they post some that I consider underpriced. Great shop, love those guys.
Very well thought out and explained take on the current market. Pretty much agree with every you said. Most important point is that you better be in this because you love it
Welcome back! Always great musings. I'm with you on the investable sets: Alpha, Beta, Arabian, Legends rares, any Power 9. I think I'd add Reserve List Unlimited to that as well. Antiquities is overrated - save for a couple artwork beauties like Mishra's Winter Factory, Triskelion, etc. The Dark is essentially worthless. Those aside, I honestly think value is now locked-in to that primary list. No matter what happens to modern magic, you not only have the nostalgia factor for the original cards, but you ALSO have the benefits of lockdown playing out in unexpected ways. All that time spent on UA-cam, eBay, etc. exposed an entirely new generation to the rarity + investment potential for ABU/Four Horesmen (with the aforementioned caveats). I think the fear of 'nostalgia' waning is no longer an issue, and by the time the next generation gets old, MTG will be pushing 100 years. Any of the original cards, of the best CCG of all time, will be (relatively) invaluable. Glass half full take from me!
Very interesting insight about nostalgia phasing outs as a factor. You could be right about antiquities. The print-run is tight and the set is small and collectible, so I like it still, but you make good points. Appreciate the comment 👍
Disagree on Antiquities here. I'd rather say it's underrated. Just look at the print run, which is extremely low. And all rares up until Legends are all very low, the Dark quite much higher, but still low compared to anything later, so this is an interesting set to follow, but not a safe pick.
Always a treat when a new video drops, this has become my favorite channel. Only surprise was that UNL didn't make the list. Could it have something to do with print-run multipliers where LG,AQ,AN have a better price/print-ratio than UNL? Maybe it's 93/94 players driving up UNL prices as substitutes for AB turning UNL from a collectors- to a players set?
Yeah that’s my thinking. I still like unlimited, I just don’t like taking about it in the same grouping as the others because I worry it creates a false equivalence. I feel it has much greater exposure to playability factors
Before the pandemic hit I'd kinda had a premonition. About 6 months before lockdown I fully stocked the house with a years worth of supplies, and paid rent a year in advance. (I retired at 45). About 2 weeks before actual lockdown I'd already resigned myself to stay out of the picture for about 6 months. (I do that periodically to quickly save cash) So when EVERYONE ended up having to do the same thing it was weird and surprising to me. I'd actually planned for it and one of the major projects that I'd planned was to get my Magic collection sorted. What another surprise that everyone else suddenly had the same idea. It was fun to watch the madness. Now, a couple years later, my projects are done, everyone is back to work and socializing and there's other things to do. I've moved up with my collection (thanks in part to your advice) but my time will probably start to move on to other things for a while.
Wow, next time you get a premonition like that, let me know 👀 As much fun as collecting is, if it’s time to move on, it’s time to move on. Congrats at retiring at 45 btw! Sounds like you have your situation nicely composed 👍
I’m the 1999-2008 foil hoarder. My most recent buyout was foil merrow bonegnawer. I own less than 200, but apparently I own the entire market almost. Not a lot of supply for something printed in 2008. The only modern day cards i buyout are art card gold stamp basic lands from crimson vow and midnight hunt. Basically I only buy things that are actually rare collectibles by design. 😂
That must make an absolutely stunning binder 😍 I indulged in a few foil “Foil”’s recently, because I enjoy the self-reference. But really I don’t have very much in that space and wish I did.
@@AlphaHoarder get into the space now is my advice to anybody. We are still at the bottom floor for most 1999-2005 foil pricing today. I only go into later printed sets for very specific cards that nobody has appreciated and have historically been worthless : merrow bonegnawer, Viridian revel, etc. attrition > the ghost infinity supply people believe in
@@AlphaHoarder I think at current if I had everything bindered up it’d be about 60 binders or so. But those 60 binders would be a very large relative supply of all 1999-2005 foils.
@@AlphaHoarder right and the best part is the competition over here is none existent. You just typically have to endure people calling you a moron if you tell them about it. I had a guy tell me that he had bulk 200,000 from each set. We settled at 3.6 million cards from 1999-2005 out of that 3.6 million at best he probably had 50,000 foils: and they would have all been primarily stuff i wouldn’t touch. I only buy cards that are mechanically solid for cmc or mechanically unique in utility or combo potential.
So I’m a nurse like the person you know😉and I have 401k at work IRA Roth on my own and got one for my daughter in a custodial account. When I spend money it’s on collectibles and I always figure I will gain 10 percent when I sell, be at even or lose 10 percent. I have fun collecting and lime you said the money aspect is a huge bonus. Rarity does come into the equation for me too.
Good to see another video -- welcome back. I've always had a collection and a for sale/trade pile, with the for sale/trade pile always being what was leftover from collection purchases that wasn't destined for my collection. My collection is pre Hasbro only, and that will never change (I have long-standing beefs with Hasbro that pre date their purchase of WotC). This means I won't touch Mercadian Masques and later. I just finished off my complete play sets of all the Urza's block. Will I sell off my collection? Maybe -- but the prices would have to be a lot higher than now -- I don't need the money. As to where to the sets rank as far as financial stability in the current environment, I think ABU, Arabian Nights, Antiquities, and Legends are tier one, The Dark, Revised and the Urza block sets are tier two, mainline sets Alliances through Exodus tier three (with possibly Portal Three Kingdoms -- this set is so sensitive to reprints it's scary, but it's scarce), the rest of the WotC mainline sets (Fallen Empires, Ice Age, Homelands) sets tier four and 4th (with an obvious exception), 5th, 6th, Chronicles, Portals 1 and 2 dumpster fire kindling. The promos and the two Collector's Editions are their own special category. Summer Magic is right out. I'm not an investor in Magic any more (I quit decades ago). I'm still a collector, and until the collection is complete, I'll be buying. I'm down to the odds and end now -- hope to finish this year.
Great insights, I agree with most of that. Very good point about the three kingdoms re-print risk. So you think you’ll finish your collection this year? That’s incredible. I hope you share when you do!
Excellent video. Nice to see someone appreciating and collecting early MTG just because they like it. Early MTG (2000 and before) will always rule my collection. I do collect present day stuff, but I have to have a reason. Looking forward to the next video. Just wondering if you have a favorite artist? I like Amy Weber's art.
Nothing like the vintage stuff! Yes, my favorite piece is an Amy Weber, but my favorite overall body of art is definitely Mark Tedin. After that a tie between RKF and Drew Tucker
Gracias para la pelicula! Greetings from Colombia 🇨🇴 looking forward to your thought about Unlimited… that will be a tough sell for me lol reminded of your Sol Ring comparison video.
Colombia- nice! Yeah, I left that hanging a bit since I wasn’t planning on cutting the video in half… I’ll clarify in the next video, but it’s not as dramatic as it ended up sounding. I just group it aside from alpha and beta, and I do consider it *more* risky, but still not very risky in absolute terms.
Downside risk categories (imo): Highest Risk: Modern Staples Legacy and Commander non reserved list cards 2017 to present sealed product Secret lair sealed product and singles 2012 to present foils and alt borders and variant cards Medium risk: Pioneer staples Collectors edition Reserved list Dual lands Non basic lands Beta, Unlimited, Revised 2011-2016 sealed product 2011 and older foils Low risk: Basic lands Power 9 Alpha Pre 2011 sealed product Old versions of commander and eternal staple cards (ex. Sol ring, bolt, llanowar elves)
I like your thinking here. Interesting to divide it into categories like non-basic lands, vs strictly sets. Probably wise, but above my pay grade as far as requiring a deep familiarity with the game meta
Not sure why duals would be higher risk than ABU or 4 hoursemen that no one plays. It is impossible to know, but you are just assuming that collectability trumps playability. If interest in the game as an investment fades the only thing worth something will be duals. Of course, if WoTc reprints duals, then the supply would change and it is a different story. In short, no one knows and people kid themselves thinking they know (though of course Reserved List cards better than non RL).
"Players are collectors. Collectors are players". Exactly. There is a very loud and very broke cohort of players who like to think that collectors are ruining the game by making cards expensive, and that a LGS could survive, and WOTC could keep the lights on, even if cards were near worthless. These same people believe that the secondary market has zero impact on card sales. Which is ridiculous if you take even a moment to think about it.
Welcome back mate. Happy new year to you and your family. Great video as always. I'm trying to focus on A/B/ARN so i'm happy to hear your sentiments about those sets. Also interesting that you're focusing more on collectability over playability. Would love to hear you expand on this more. I gave you the example of Juzam Djinn vs Bazaar of Baghdad previously. Both are collectable and iconic. Juzams are more scarce due to print run yet Bazaars are $1k more give or take. Is there a breakdown you can do of a card's price and assign portions of it to collectability/playability/scarcity/iconicness and would that change over time if/when the game dies out 1/10/100/etc years in the future...
Happy new year! I spent a lot of time trying to come up with a formula that includes the variables you mentioned… I have no doubt there’s one there, but I’m not sure how to derive it. Your example does show that about $1000 worth of that card are embedded in some combination of “iconic” and playability (which are themselves related). I’m still spending cpu cycles on this conundrum 🤔
I recently began buying Alpha’s and came across the topic of clipped beta’s. Some people say they sell card corner cutters in Amazon that can make corners just like Alpha’s. Have you heard anything about this? How do you protect yourself against clipped beta’s?
Wow, no I had not, but I’ll be looking into it…! There are registers and color differences that help distinguish the two sets, but these things are poorly documented except for the very high end cards. If this were to become a widespread thing, it would make it very difficult to authenticate many cards.
Look for the slight bend on the corners to see if it looks natural, also hold them side by side with other alpha cards and compare corners through a loupe. Also, if you already got another card in Alpha / Beta, compare it to this. There are noticable differences in text / color / placement of number in mana cost, etc. Not easy though for newer collectors without much experience though.
I think unlimited rares are ok, and not antiquities commons ( battering rams ). a bit skeptical about even AN commons to be honest. Looking forward to your next vid.
I could get on board with ATQ commons. There's enough printed that a contracting hobby would hit something like that sooner rather than later. Appreciate the input!
Yeah I cut that off at an awkward time without meaning too. I still like unlimited, didn’t mean to say otherwise, but I put it on the other side of a sort of firewall that I think protects the other mentioned sets. I’ll clarify in the next part.
Hasbro made the mistake of thinking the 2020/21 collectible bubble was sustainable and adjusted their strategy to meet demand that wouldn't exist in 2yrs. I wish they would just admit their error and change course, rather than doubling down and destroying the equity and consumer confidence in their cards in a desperate attempt to do the impossible.
@@AlphaHoarder I will be sad to see it all go,learned magic in juvi as a kid, my 1st card was actually: knight of the hokey pokey. They have given me no reason to believe the cards will keep holding value, maybe alpha and beta will hold value but I do not even believe the reserve list anymore.
It sounds like you have a passion for the product, so that’s a factor in your favor. I’d agree in that there is potential everywhere, it’s down to individual risk tolerance and willingness to have capital tied up. I have no idea how products from, say, 2016, will perform on an roi basis in the future. I suspect there’s more risk there, but risk doesn’t mean there can’t be reward there too. It’s always possible wizards corrects, the game grows, and this era becomes hard to get and desired. We shall see!
Please tell me that you don't throw away all those top loaders. There are a ton of people buying used top loaders. They are expensive new. Also the landfill definitely doesn't need more plastic in it. Also great video as always. Love seeing all the clean alpha you pick up.
All the clean ones I keep and reuse. If they have tape all over them, or anything like that, I usually dump them. Appreciate the watch and the comment 👍
Please give the ones you don't use to an LGS that sells online. They will use them and it will keep them out of the trash. We all have to do our part to save the earth.
Yes! He's back! I've also seen alpha cards remain relatively flat after a small up-tick of listings during the 30th fiasco. That to me is a bullish sign for alpha. It could mean that the MTG collectible market will consolidate towards original vintage cards like Alpha, but what the hell do I know.
Agreed!
My collection is a player’s collection. I understand your points and you cited to like in the market. Something about collecting a four of set in a binder truly makes me internally excited.
At the end of the day it’s what you enjoy more than anything!
Welcome to 2023 everyone and glad to have Mike back with content! Hope everyone has a fantastic year! Looking forward to part 2 and i'll post some thoughts.
Beautiful cards! As always thanks for sharing.
Happy new year!
Thanks for the info as always I hope your 2023 🎉is going well!
So far so good, hope the same for you!
Roc of Kher Ridges artist Andi Rusu (amazing art) also illustrated Goblin Balloon Brigade. Both have similar fantastic art in unique style.
Great video. Great Alpha cards (as always!)
Ohh yea, both have the striking style indeed! And both are fan favorites (I know more than one person obsessed with one or the other of those cards). Appreciate the comment 👍
Love it. An alpha hoarder myself, but in a different way. Only PSA 10 for me. Been awhile since I've added to my collection, but my cash is locked and loaded (and earning 4% in the meantime) waiting for a downturn. Alpha=historical. They'll always hold value. Love the story behind it starting with selling out at GenCon Wisconson back in the day.
Indeed, hard to replicate the historical part with anything else! PSA10s, that’s so baller 😆🤩
Last couple of months I’ve shifted away from Alpha to take advantage of the softness in Legends tier 1 cards, and also to make some progress on graded Arabian nights. But I’ll always circle back to Alpha.
Very nice clone! 👍👍
Oh yeah, nice strategy. The softness there is likely more pronounced.
you having 100 copies of Jump makes me feel better about having over 600 copies of an Arabian Nights common !!!
i'm not the only one that's insane....let the madness flow !
🤣 there’s plenty of madness to go around! If anyone comes up short, I’ve got plenty to spare haha. 600, though, I’m impressed! I only have 2 cards at that quantity, from my two buyout experiments.
Tell us lol
@@AlphaHoarder that's how my journey started too....i wanted to see how the market would react....i think my first 300 or so i bought within a 30 day period.....literally a "here today, gone tomorrow" scenario....
and then it became, "i want 1% of the whole entire print run"....i'm a little over halfway to that goal
@@jeffreyjaros5924 what common did you target?
Hi. Just wanted to say how glad I am to have stumbled onto your channel. This video was exactly the pace that I enjoy.
Cheers!
Thanks for that kind feedback 👍👍
Those Jumps are from ABUGames. I miss living by them. :(
Indeed! The last 18 months they’ve been a pretty reliable source of clean alpha cards. They auction about a third of them, list another third on eBay only, and put the rest on their own site. They’re getting more aggressive with prices the last ~9 months, but every now and then, they post some that I consider underpriced. Great shop, love those guys.
I enjoyed seeing the Jump cards.
Happy New Year 🥳
Happy new year my friend!
Very well thought out and explained take on the current market. Pretty much agree with every you said. Most important point is that you better be in this because you love it
That is the most important thing!
very interesting and well thought through talk, mike, as always! 👊🏻❤️
Thanks 🙏
@@AlphaHoarder ehre wem ehre gebührt! 👊🏻😁
Welcome back! Always great musings. I'm with you on the investable sets: Alpha, Beta, Arabian, Legends rares, any Power 9. I think I'd add Reserve List Unlimited to that as well. Antiquities is overrated - save for a couple artwork beauties like Mishra's Winter Factory, Triskelion, etc. The Dark is essentially worthless. Those aside, I honestly think value is now locked-in to that primary list. No matter what happens to modern magic, you not only have the nostalgia factor for the original cards, but you ALSO have the benefits of lockdown playing out in unexpected ways. All that time spent on UA-cam, eBay, etc. exposed an entirely new generation to the rarity + investment potential for ABU/Four Horesmen (with the aforementioned caveats). I think the fear of 'nostalgia' waning is no longer an issue, and by the time the next generation gets old, MTG will be pushing 100 years. Any of the original cards, of the best CCG of all time, will be (relatively) invaluable. Glass half full take from me!
Very interesting insight about nostalgia phasing outs as a factor. You could be right about antiquities. The print-run is tight and the set is small and collectible, so I like it still, but you make good points. Appreciate the comment 👍
Disagree on Antiquities here. I'd rather say it's underrated. Just look at the print run, which is extremely low. And all rares up until Legends are all very low, the Dark quite much higher, but still low compared to anything later, so this is an interesting set to follow, but not a safe pick.
Very good analysis of the situation as usual. These jade statues are beautiful. One of my favorite illustrations.
Yes, beautiful artwork indeed! Thanks for stopping by
These jade statues are gorgeous :)
Cool video, can't wait for the next episode.
Appreciate that, see you there 🤜🤛
Always a treat when a new video drops, this has become my favorite channel.
Only surprise was that UNL didn't make the list. Could it have something to do with print-run multipliers where LG,AQ,AN have a better price/print-ratio than UNL?
Maybe it's 93/94 players driving up UNL prices as substitutes for AB turning UNL from a collectors- to a players set?
Yeah that’s my thinking. I still like unlimited, I just don’t like taking about it in the same grouping as the others because I worry it creates a false equivalence. I feel it has much greater exposure to playability factors
Before the pandemic hit I'd kinda had a premonition. About 6 months before lockdown I fully stocked the house with a years worth of supplies, and paid rent a year in advance. (I retired at 45). About 2 weeks before actual lockdown I'd already resigned myself to stay out of the picture for about 6 months. (I do that periodically to quickly save cash) So when EVERYONE ended up having to do the same thing it was weird and surprising to me. I'd actually planned for it and one of the major projects that I'd planned was to get my Magic collection sorted. What another surprise that everyone else suddenly had the same idea. It was fun to watch the madness. Now, a couple years later, my projects are done, everyone is back to work and socializing and there's other things to do. I've moved up with my collection (thanks in part to your advice) but my time will probably start to move on to other things for a while.
Wow, next time you get a premonition like that, let me know 👀 As much fun as collecting is, if it’s time to move on, it’s time to move on. Congrats at retiring at 45 btw! Sounds like you have your situation nicely composed 👍
@@AlphaHoarder LOL, thanks. I just don't ask for much and use what I need. 😀
Heya Mike, thanks for another strong video. As for your final statement, don’t tease me with a good time 😜😜😜!
🤣 Thanks for dropping by, appreciate you 👍
I’m the 1999-2008 foil hoarder. My most recent buyout was foil merrow bonegnawer. I own less than 200, but apparently I own the entire market almost. Not a lot of supply for something printed in 2008. The only modern day cards i buyout are art card gold stamp basic lands from crimson vow and midnight hunt. Basically I only buy things that are actually rare collectibles by design. 😂
That must make an absolutely stunning binder 😍 I indulged in a few foil “Foil”’s recently, because I enjoy the self-reference. But really I don’t have very much in that space and wish I did.
@@AlphaHoarder get into the space now is my advice to anybody. We are still at the bottom floor for most 1999-2005 foil pricing today. I only go into later printed sets for very specific cards that nobody has appreciated and have historically been worthless : merrow bonegnawer, Viridian revel, etc. attrition > the ghost infinity supply people believe in
@@AlphaHoarder I think at current if I had everything bindered up it’d be about 60 binders or so. But those 60 binders would be a very large relative supply of all 1999-2005 foils.
Amazing 🔥🔥
@@AlphaHoarder right and the best part is the competition over here is none existent. You just typically have to endure people calling you a moron if you tell them about it. I had a guy tell me that he had bulk 200,000 from each set. We settled at 3.6 million cards from 1999-2005 out of that 3.6 million at best he probably had 50,000 foils: and they would have all been primarily stuff i wouldn’t touch. I only buy cards that are mechanically solid for cmc or mechanically unique in utility or combo potential.
So I’m a nurse like the person you know😉and I have 401k at work IRA Roth on my own and got one for my daughter in a custodial account. When I spend money it’s on collectibles and I always figure I will gain 10 percent when I sell, be at even or lose 10 percent. I have fun collecting and lime you said the money aspect is a huge bonus. Rarity does come into the equation for me too.
That’s my favorite part of the finance end. It lets me justify spending a dumb amount of money 😅 good on you for the nursing work #respect
Good to see another video -- welcome back.
I've always had a collection and a for sale/trade pile, with the for sale/trade pile always being what was leftover from collection purchases that wasn't destined for my collection. My collection is pre Hasbro only, and that will never change (I have long-standing beefs with Hasbro that pre date their purchase of WotC). This means I won't touch Mercadian Masques and later.
I just finished off my complete play sets of all the Urza's block.
Will I sell off my collection? Maybe -- but the prices would have to be a lot higher than now -- I don't need the money.
As to where to the sets rank as far as financial stability in the current environment, I think ABU, Arabian Nights, Antiquities, and Legends are tier one, The Dark, Revised and the Urza block sets are tier two, mainline sets Alliances through Exodus tier three (with possibly Portal Three Kingdoms -- this set is so sensitive to reprints it's scary, but it's scarce), the rest of the WotC mainline sets (Fallen Empires, Ice Age, Homelands) sets tier four and 4th (with an obvious exception), 5th, 6th, Chronicles, Portals 1 and 2 dumpster fire kindling. The promos and the two Collector's Editions are their own special category. Summer Magic is right out.
I'm not an investor in Magic any more (I quit decades ago). I'm still a collector, and until the collection is complete, I'll be buying. I'm down to the odds and end now -- hope to finish this year.
Great insights, I agree with most of that. Very good point about the three kingdoms re-print risk. So you think you’ll finish your collection this year? That’s incredible. I hope you share when you do!
Dead on, on all points. It sounds like you took a good long look at the landscape. A lot of people are going to need to do a lot of auditing.
Glad to hear others are on the same wavelength. Appreciate the comment!
Excellent video. Nice to see someone appreciating and collecting early MTG just because they like it. Early MTG (2000 and before) will always rule my collection. I do collect present day stuff, but I have to have a reason. Looking forward to the next video. Just wondering if you have a favorite artist? I like Amy Weber's art.
Nothing like the vintage stuff! Yes, my favorite piece is an Amy Weber, but my favorite overall body of art is definitely Mark Tedin. After that a tie between RKF and Drew Tucker
Domaniria remastered foils and non foils are my first set. As a collector ill pause buying n look back b4 if i start another set. Never played yet.
Hey Mike, happy Near Year to you and thanks for your thoughtful consideration of this topic, I appreciate your thoughts.
Happy new year to you as well. I appreciate you watching the video 🙂
100 jiumps! ....That definitely proves something is wrong with me.
That’s an epic card in the masterpiece printing!
Gracias para la pelicula! Greetings from Colombia 🇨🇴 looking forward to your thought about Unlimited… that will be a tough sell for me lol reminded of your Sol Ring comparison video.
Colombia- nice! Yeah, I left that hanging a bit since I wasn’t planning on cutting the video in half… I’ll clarify in the next video, but it’s not as dramatic as it ended up sounding. I just group it aside from alpha and beta, and I do consider it *more* risky, but still not very risky in absolute terms.
Downside risk categories (imo):
Highest Risk:
Modern Staples
Legacy and Commander non reserved list cards
2017 to present sealed product
Secret lair sealed product and singles
2012 to present foils and alt borders and variant cards
Medium risk:
Pioneer staples
Collectors edition
Reserved list
Dual lands
Non basic lands
Beta, Unlimited, Revised
2011-2016 sealed product
2011 and older foils
Low risk:
Basic lands
Power 9
Alpha
Pre 2011 sealed product
Old versions of commander and eternal staple cards (ex. Sol ring, bolt, llanowar elves)
And what about Arabian nights?
I like your thinking here. Interesting to divide it into categories like non-basic lands, vs strictly sets. Probably wise, but above my pay grade as far as requiring a deep familiarity with the game meta
Not sure why duals would be higher risk than ABU or 4 hoursemen that no one plays. It is impossible to know, but you are just assuming that collectability trumps playability. If interest in the game as an investment fades the only thing worth something will be duals. Of course, if WoTc reprints duals, then the supply would change and it is a different story. In short, no one knows and people kid themselves thinking they know (though of course Reserved List cards better than non RL).
"Players are collectors. Collectors are players". Exactly. There is a very loud and very broke cohort of players who like to think that collectors are ruining the game by making cards expensive, and that a LGS could survive, and WOTC could keep the lights on, even if cards were near worthless.
These same people believe that the secondary market has zero impact on card sales. Which is ridiculous if you take even a moment to think about it.
💯
I think right now there's just a way bigger discount on conventional investments than Alpha cards, so the demand is very low.
Very good point
Welcome back mate. Happy new year to you and your family. Great video as always. I'm trying to focus on A/B/ARN so i'm happy to hear your sentiments about those sets.
Also interesting that you're focusing more on collectability over playability. Would love to hear you expand on this more. I gave you the example of Juzam Djinn vs Bazaar of Baghdad previously. Both are collectable and iconic. Juzams are more scarce due to print run yet Bazaars are $1k more give or take. Is there a breakdown you can do of a card's price and assign portions of it to collectability/playability/scarcity/iconicness and would that change over time if/when the game dies out 1/10/100/etc years in the future...
Happy new year! I spent a lot of time trying to come up with a formula that includes the variables you mentioned… I have no doubt there’s one there, but I’m not sure how to derive it. Your example does show that about $1000 worth of that card are embedded in some combination of “iconic” and playability (which are themselves related). I’m still spending cpu cycles on this conundrum 🤔
I recently began buying Alpha’s and came across the topic of clipped beta’s. Some people say they sell card corner cutters in Amazon that can make corners just like Alpha’s. Have you heard anything about this? How do you protect yourself against clipped beta’s?
Wow, no I had not, but I’ll be looking into it…! There are registers and color differences that help distinguish the two sets, but these things are poorly documented except for the very high end cards. If this were to become a widespread thing, it would make it very difficult to authenticate many cards.
Widespread might not be the right word, but it's definitely a thing, and has been for years.
Mainly since Alpha became more valuable than Beta.
Look for the slight bend on the corners to see if it looks natural, also hold them side by side with other alpha cards and compare corners through a loupe. Also, if you already got another card in Alpha / Beta, compare it to this. There are noticable differences in text / color / placement of number in mana cost, etc. Not easy though for newer collectors without much experience though.
I think unlimited rares are ok, and not antiquities commons ( battering rams ). a bit skeptical about even AN commons to be honest. Looking forward to your next vid.
I could get on board with ATQ commons. There's enough printed that a contracting hobby would hit something like that sooner rather than later. Appreciate the input!
Great video as always and great start to the year. You didn't explain why you're not getting into unlimited. Saving it for next video?
Yeah I cut that off at an awkward time without meaning too. I still like unlimited, didn’t mean to say otherwise, but I put it on the other side of a sort of firewall that I think protects the other mentioned sets. I’ll clarify in the next part.
Morning!
Hasbro made the mistake of thinking the 2020/21 collectible bubble was sustainable and adjusted their strategy to meet demand that wouldn't exist in 2yrs. I wish they would just admit their error and change course, rather than doubling down and destroying the equity and consumer confidence in their cards in a desperate attempt to do the impossible.
Good insight, now the question is why haven’t they figured it out yet??
Bold of you to assume I am not already in your basement. 🤔🤫🤨
🤣🤣
How many Jumps are you up to now?
More than I need 😬
Thx (:
I have so little faith in MTG anymore that im selling my collection, including an unopened international collector's edition box.
It’s sad to hear how many people are in the same boat as you. The amount of goodwill that wizards squandered is stunning.
@@AlphaHoarder I will be sad to see it all go,learned magic in juvi as a kid, my 1st card was actually: knight of the hokey pokey.
They have given me no reason to believe the cards will keep holding value, maybe alpha and beta will hold value but I do not even believe the reserve list anymore.
@@AlphaHoarder if you know anybody looking to buy a collectors edition for 12k let me know, it's unopened
Shoot me an email if you want. I can get a few more details and poke my network.
@@AlphaHoarder email sent👍
I still believe In stuff 2020 and earlier. Could be years, but I’m not selling anything. You’ll have to pry them from my cold dead hands.
Gotta think on your feet, don't be so firm
@@CrosswaIk I’m very nimble my friend. Don’t be scared so easily
It sounds like you have a passion for the product, so that’s a factor in your favor. I’d agree in that there is potential everywhere, it’s down to individual risk tolerance and willingness to have capital tied up. I have no idea how products from, say, 2016, will perform on an roi basis in the future. I suspect there’s more risk there, but risk doesn’t mean there can’t be reward there too. It’s always possible wizards corrects, the game grows, and this era becomes hard to get and desired. We shall see!
dominating licit
@@greeneking77 my man 🫡
Please tell me that you don't throw away all those top loaders. There are a ton of people buying used top loaders. They are expensive new. Also the landfill definitely doesn't need more plastic in it.
Also great video as always. Love seeing all the clean alpha you pick up.
All the clean ones I keep and reuse. If they have tape all over them, or anything like that, I usually dump them. Appreciate the watch and the comment 👍
Please give the ones you don't use to an LGS that sells online. They will use them and it will keep them out of the trash. We all have to do our part to save the earth.