Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market
“Sonya Lee Mitchell” is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Just saw your video with the PlainBagel and liked it. Saw this video and the recent comments and they are quite disrespectful with you sadly. I just expected some funny "this didn't age well" kind of comments. I wish you the best! Hope your play pays out in the end.
Hi Sven, Great analysis, I have the same thoughts as you regarding Ali Baba, so it's great to receive aditional validation to my thesis from a very seasoned investor such as yourself! I'd like to thank you for all the great content you create, I take alot from it as a newbie value investor! Keep up the great work and wish you a good entry into 2021! Greetings from Lisbon, JM
It's in China's interest to prevent anti-competitive practices within Alibaba. It's not in their interest to destroy Alibaba. It's time to consider buying at these levels.
@@Re3iRtH I use Questreade as i like its interface & no fees for purchasing ETFs. I've made the mistake of waiting for a bottom on BABA before and instead put in a limit order at 218 and it filled Monday morning. Since it's only about 4% of my portfolio, I'd prefer it sells off even more to make it 12% though.
@@rokker333 You can never be sure about the truthfulness business stats. AfteralI, all you are seeing is some pixels on your screen. In that environment I know all I need to know to make fundamental-based, assymetric risk-reward bets in a diversified way.. Good luck to us, it never hurts.
These angry comments make me really happy! The sentiment is incredibly low. A value play at $200, says a lot about $130. Started buying 2-3 months ago, looking forward to add more. Thank you Sven, see you on the other side :-)
Thanks for your review Sven . I really appreciated the section about the risks involved . It would be great if in the future you would expand on the risk further, compared to DCF analysis that can be done by one one nowadays. Just to add more value to a 19 minutes video.
Sven i want to get onto your premium content but its a little steep for me. Almost 500 bucks a year. Is the high price due to licensing with teachable ? I am sure it must be worth it.. you are few voices of reason in this you tube world of fin analysts. Do you think you can come up with a offering more affordable?
Immense value right there! I've been holding alibaba for quite a while, incredible company in horrible environment. I'm not sure if it plays out well, but business fundamentals are certainly on point in this one.
Really good timing on that video Sven. Thank you once again for the great content. I was watching BABA during the past month, and now because of you, I made up my mind to initiate a position. I plan on holding it for 2-3 years and see how it does, maybe i will wait for 5-7.
I remember you telling you couldnt care about it going to 100$/share and staying down there for 3 years since you can accumulate wealth and get in there. since I assume you have a considrable part of your portfolio in baba Im wondering how youre coping. do you see this dip/crash as a good thing to buy cheap or is it hurting you seing the red numbers?
Great watch now in retrospect. Nothing in the video is wrong. But it shows, you can never tell how a stock will perform. Might be worth now to do a follow up video.
Hi Sven, great timing with this one. Could you make a video on Vedanta again? It failed to go private about a month ago and now I think their plan is to buy 5% each year. I wonder if I should hold onto that stock or just sell and buy something safer.
Hi Sven, I genuinely appreciate your opinions. I was wondering what you think about Nokia, I am not as experienced as you are but in my humble opinion it represents a lot of value. What do you think? Thank you.
Well, you were (in hindsight) a bit early. Before Charlie Munger even :) . But I do agree: people who are patient enough will ultimately make money off this buy.
Merry Xmas have you been Dr. Carlin! Just asking what you mean when you say "Terminal multiple" and how you compute it regarding the other data. Anyways, as soon as I can I'm gonna download the excel spreadsheet. Thank u very much for your lessons and happy New Year's Eve!
Hey Sven! The only thing I'd want to add: when you compare $60 billion today to what will happen in 5+ years, you should also consider inflation. With all the money being printed (and who knows how much will be injected in the economy in the future too), that might not look like a lot of money by the end of the 2020s.
Complementary: Baba trading at 2018 levels with revenues 2x since then. About the same free Cash flow as Amazon. Amazon mcap 3x more, P/E 93 vs 29 Baba Great coverage, keep the updates coming, high interest from many investors ! Thank you Sven
Thank you Sven. I asked for this last week and you delivered. I started a position a few weeks ago but am looking to add to it. I just can’t see the party in China stymieing one of there tech champions. I feel they have made there point now. I bought them in HK to avoid some of the VIE risk.
I feel when analyzing Chinese stocks, political influence has to be heavily factored in. More than 250 powerful Chinese entrepreneurs and government officials have died mysteriously since Xi has been in power (most of them were middle-aged). The CCP has seized control of many companies too. Jack Ma hasn’t shown his face for over two months so something serious may be happening to him and his company as we speak. I’ve seen people comparing the lawsuits that Alibaba is facing with those filed against Google... but I don’t think the CEO of Google has to worry about disappearing involuntarily, or shares of the company falling into the hands of the US government.
good for you , you didnt lose money , following youtube for investing is like following football gambler sometimes you win and sometimes you lose , best way is to dca index fund
No. Dividends are something companies can decide to pay or not. Baba does not pay divididends, and it has no relation with the size of the company. Regards.
@@indirectlc5545 After a while if a growth company hits a plateau and can’t grow as fast anymore (saturation of the market for instance), they can reduce the amount they invest in CAPEX as the return on investment in trying to grow the company is becoming low. When that happens, they need to spend the capital in other ways. They can either start to acquire other companies (can be dangerous, acquisitions are complex) or they can pay back the shareholder (dividends and / or buybacks). An example of that would Apple.
great analysis ! accumulated over 6 months average now 256 with last buys this week. It can go to its 180 dollars again but surely the risk is substantial for this stock. I am looking at limits for 215 and lower to get in during the coming months.
Wow, I just initiated a position this morning and then this showed up in my recommendations. I watch a lot of your videos so it's not abnormal for you to show up in my feed, but it IS abnormal for a video to show up that recommends a company that I just purchased. LOL
Great videos Sven! Just a technical question about something I'm not understanding. In your DCF template models, it seems like the terminal value is always equal to the 2nd to last year cash flow multiplied by the terminal multiple, instead of the last year cash flow multiplied by the terminal multiple. Is it supposed to be that way or am I doing something wrong in my calculation? Thank you!
It's in the Chinese government's interest for Alibaba to succeed. Further, Ma has been retired from Alibaba since 2018. China won't let BABA or any company get too powerful without them also having stake but that doesn't mean they will crush them.
Jack Ma is not missing he's just laying low away from the gaze of the Chinese government after criticizing the clunky banking system which according to me is required to put a lease on all companies to become Stakeholding based rather than Shareholding based. Also almost all companies in China is the government's pet which means they cannot go overboard but at the same time they would be receiving full support of the government in bad times, investing in Chinese stocks is quite safe but don't expect steady growth.
Thanks for the video, Sven. How do you evaluate the fair price (or for that matter, market cap) of a company trading on multiple stock exchanges? If Alibaba has investors in China and USA, shouldn't the market cap be the sum of the cps on these 2 exchanges, and therefore shouldn't the evaluations take this into consideration? To keep my question simple - let's say a company floats 100 shares on NYSE and 100 on Tokyo Stock Exchange. If I buy 1 share of the company on NYSE, do I own 1% of the company or 0.5% of the company?
Yea, the problem with these 'analysts' or 'experts' is that their analysis is worth nothing, and actually they're wrong more than half the time, worse than coin flips.
@@actuallyilyts1757 sooner or later that will change... The good thing with growth stocks is you have to wait anyway... When they earn 20Bucks per share it will be at 400 or they can buy back shares on a massive scale. Either way we win.
Munger is thinking like you! He has bought this in the Daily Journal portfolio. Maybe Li Lu told him to pull the trigger! Munger would probably say that this is much better than holding cash!
Nice video! this is a great example that the gov gets involved when a company becomes too greedy. The reputation of Jack Ma went down hill after he preached that working from 9am to 9pm 6 days per week ("996") was a blessing. Now, he challenged the central gov by saying that the banking system in China is like a pawn shop. I am not a fan of the central gov but I knew the gov would go after him. Regardless, BABA is good buy because of its cloud business, but JD's ecosystem in ecommerce will be more sustainable.
Yeah, also saw it. Actually, I do not think this is a problem with a company like Alibaba, they are too big to be able to perpetrate such a fraud and, honestly, I think they would not do that even if they could.
@@erikmerkaj1825 because of how easily they were able to scam investors. It stated very clearly that Chinese businesses only get 'in trouble' if they defraud and break laws in China. They don't care at all if they do it to foreign investors. If you get a chance to watch the documentary you'll understand where I am coming from. However I must admit the documentary, great youtube channels like Sven's and minor personal 'google' research is the extent of my knowledge.
dont invest your money in a company under a dictatorship rules....as soon as you do is not your moneybut theirs and if you loose ...you cant complain stupid is stupid does.....is your american money ...invest it in american companies
BABA analysis assumes BABA's accounting is accurate. Lucking Coffee a great example. Yes, different companies. But worth considering a margin of error.
different companies...BUT both are run with the same principle and under the same goverment...for chinese mentality to defraud inside China is wrong but not if is outside they see as a right to do so.....with such ethics I wouldnt put my oney in their pockets.
Hey @sven, great content. I was wondering why NYSE price change bus not following HK stock exchange. I understand that it's an ARD in NYSE but normally the price change bare quite close. Am I right?
@@MagicNash89 A play that could resulted in more gains if a technicals analysis was made. In 28 dec when this video was posted, BABA was @220$, a good entry point, on the previous support, after a bounce to 270$, it went back at the multi year support line. I exited when it broke under it, and avoided a -40% drawdown.
Here after 1 year to the day, and oh man first time holding one of those stocks that keep going down even though I'm convinced it's good. The greats were not kidding when they said that the market humbles you and doles out it's fair share of psychological damage, luckily I love it so I'm having fun, hope whoever is reading this feels somewhat the same way.
Hi Sven . I bougth today in the floor baba, jd, tencent, if tomorrow go up again for me is a dead cat bounce. But I am not sure. So take the profits of only the stocks I bougth today. and wait the fall with more money. What do you think.? how I can see your plataform . how to follow what you do?. if you need my mail tell me . Again sorry for my english. you are the best.
It would probably be beneficial for you to run a few simulations on what the average annual return is for 10 years if you buy at 200 or if you buy at 220 and you end up selling 10 years later at different price points of 300, 500, 1000, 1500 and 2000. This is the reason why Buffett and Munger say it is better to buy an excellent company at decent prices than a decent company at excellent prices. Getting an excellent company at excellent prices is just icing on the cake.
I bought BABA at the start of 2020. I rode it up and rode it down, it’s now roughly the same price as when I bought it. I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom yet. It will probably recover but who knows when or by how much. There’s added risk and fear when buying Chinese stock, I don’t think it’s right to make a comparison with Amazon.
Ciao Sven, grazie per il tuo Video. Oggi ho trovato in Alibaba un buon punto di ingresso a 120usd. Secondo qual è un buon punto uscita? Meglio tenere fino al 2030 senza guardare il prezzo oppure c’è una quotazione alla quale vendere? (Esempio stupido 1000 usd)
@@macdaddy9340 Timing is for traders, so you were obviously on the wrong channel, and if you want steady growth tyr the All Season portfolio or similar, also not really a topic on this channel.
What is the safest exchange to buy Alibaba stock? I understand that the listing on the NYSE are not shares in the company, but an indirect construction, while you can buy the real shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Is that right? Or does it not matter that much?
Not a hater... big fan and love you work Sven, but sketchy chinese shell companies are exactly that. BABA is a shell company in the caymen islands. Good luck and with the upcoming financial environment and the collapse of the yuan. The dollar is becoming worthless, but the yuan is also a currency that's backed by a communist mindset spells nothing but danger. Put that on top of a company who's share structure doesn't entitle you to anything if they go under or are simply taken over by the government.... erm just no (also buffett doesn't hold it and berkshire is a huge portion of the stock market. Has to be a reason and it's not going to be because it's not a value investment :) )
Hi Sven! Great video as usual! One question though - with all this tension between the US and China, what would happen if Alibaba is kicked out of the NYSE? Would that mean an investor, who bough shares through the NYSE, would lose all its investment? Thanks!
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market
You hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
“Sonya Lee Mitchell” is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
I’ve had BABA for a while. Great company, toxic environment.
Interesting name - 360 Finance. You then must know that BABA is not Alibaba itself.
@@joephysics5469 yeah it’s a holding company :)
50 shares at 215.5 GLTA and thank you sven!
Just saw your video with the PlainBagel and liked it. Saw this video and the recent comments and they are quite disrespectful with you sadly. I just expected some funny "this didn't age well" kind of comments. I wish you the best! Hope your play pays out in the end.
thank you, no worries! Let's hope it first gets bad, then recovers somewhere down the road!
Thanks Sven, your long term interesting vision never fails to impress me
Hi Sven, if you thought Alibaba was a buy at 222 USD I’m curious to know what you think of it today 11th March 2022 at 88 USD? Thanks in advance.
:-)
@@Value-Investing what a comment!
Hi Sven,
Great analysis, I have the same thoughts as you regarding Ali Baba, so it's great to receive aditional validation to my thesis from a very seasoned investor such as yourself!
I'd like to thank you for all the great content you create, I take alot from it as a newbie value investor!
Keep up the great work and wish you a good entry into 2021!
Greetings from Lisbon,
JM
It's in China's interest to prevent anti-competitive practices within Alibaba. It's not in their interest to destroy Alibaba. It's time to consider buying at these levels.
Lol , now it is at 76
Perfect timing. Looking forward to finally having some exposure to this Chinese giant.
What exchange/broker are you using to buy Alibaba?
@@Re3iRtH I use Questreade as i like its interface & no fees for purchasing ETFs. I've made the mistake of waiting for a bottom on BABA before and instead put in a limit order at 218 and it filled Monday morning. Since it's only about 4% of my portfolio, I'd prefer it sells off even more to make it 12% though.
You were reading my mind with this video. Good call and perfect timing .
A wise man once said 'Pray for a stock you are buying to go down, so you can buy more'
That man who said that was Warren Buffet
Good stock to go down not any stock, any crappy stock can go down to zero
@@rokker333 It's called knowing what you are buying
@@rokker333 Completely irrelevant, and if they are putting Santa Clause in there. The only thing that matters is cash flow.
@@rokker333 You can never be sure about the truthfulness business stats. AfteralI, all you are seeing is some pixels on your screen. In that environment I know all I need to know to make fundamental-based, assymetric risk-reward bets in a diversified way.. Good luck to us, it never hurts.
this video is hitting the nail on the head, i was eyeing the stock for a time now.
Using USA money to finance a foreign company fron an country who wants your head is treason
@@moisesbeyond "a country who wants your head" meaningless, fluff, incorrect
@@Re3iRtH waiting for the proofs of your statement
THE VIDEO I WAITED FOR THANKS A LOT !!!!
Enjoy
These angry comments make me really happy! The sentiment is incredibly low.
A value play at $200, says a lot about $130.
Started buying 2-3 months ago, looking forward to add more.
Thank you Sven, see you on the other side :-)
:-)
In 2-3 years this video will be a good example for why you need to have a strong conviction.
the opposite, you must never have conviction, just a clear risk reward analysis.
Great analysis Sven. I'm sure many people are interested in this and are following Alibaba closely right now.
Wow, I was looking at this just this morning. Nice to see we're on the same page, Sven. Happy holidays! :)
Same here! I entered my limit buy order on Xmas eve. and should have gotten the stock just now after US opening
Forsaaaaaaaaaan
Forsaaaan baaajs
Alibaba is going to $2,500 a share by the end of 2021.
@@pussymasterxxx unbanned FeelsBadMan
Great video Sven perfectly agree. Bought more Alibabab just 1 hour before your video
Great Video! Question: If you buy the Hong Kong shares, is it still a VIE or are we buying the actual shares?
From what I have read HK shares are direct company shares but some company assets are held in the complicated VIE structures.
Thanks for your review Sven . I really appreciated the section about the risks involved . It would be great if in the future you would expand on the risk further, compared to DCF analysis that can be done by one one nowadays. Just to add more value to a 19 minutes video.
I was waiting your feedback Sven!!!!!
Hi Sven! I'm a big fan of yours. What is your take with BABA now? temporary carnage or long term, based on new market conditions? thank you.
I will update
@@Value-Investing Can you also give your opinion of PDD ?
Sven i want to get onto your premium content but its a little steep for me. Almost 500 bucks a year. Is the high price due to licensing with teachable ? I am sure it must be worth it.. you are few voices of reason in this you tube world of fin analysts. Do you think you can come up with a offering more affordable?
It's actually "only" $349USD.
Great D VID, keep up the good work. I LOADED THE BOAT WHEN IT Baba crash i bought 5k worth of stock at $213. It's has been good to me over the years .
Immense value right there! I've been holding alibaba for quite a while, incredible company in horrible environment. I'm not sure if it plays out well, but business fundamentals are certainly on point in this one.
I have been building a position now. In the long term valuations will reflect the fundamentals, so as long as those go to right direction I am happy.
Definitely an interesting investment. Timely analysis for sure. Sure does feel like a tenbagger. Thanks Sven for all that you do for us!
I bought last year at ~ 175$ and now added more now ~200$ plan to hold 5-10 years.
Do you own Alibaba or BABA? Not the same company.
Really good timing on that video Sven. Thank you once again for the great content. I was watching BABA during the past month, and now because of you, I made up my mind to initiate a position. I plan on holding it for 2-3 years and see how it does, maybe i will wait for 5-7.
I remember you telling you couldnt care about it going to 100$/share and staying down there for 3 years since you can accumulate wealth and get in there.
since I assume you have a considrable part of your portfolio in baba Im wondering how youre coping. do you see this dip/crash as a good thing to buy cheap or is it hurting you seing the red numbers?
:-))
Great watch now in retrospect. Nothing in the video is wrong. But it shows, you can never tell how a stock will perform. Might be worth now to do a follow up video.
just the growth expectation!
Hi Sven, great timing with this one. Could you make a video on Vedanta again? It failed to go private about a month ago and now I think their plan is to buy 5% each year. I wonder if I should hold onto that stock or just sell and buy something safer.
Bold, Sven. Not sure I like the idea of getting on the opposite side of that Chinese government, but good luck with it!
Hi Sven, looks like you’re „timing the market“ with the publication of this video...😁
Not necessarily, Hear what he has to say @18:10
So when there is a sale, you don’t wanna know about it?
You only want to buy full price?
I hope (and think) Sven will get the joke...😉
@@mawean Damn, i need to work on my sense of humor, lol.
@@MAchannel2024 👍
Hi Sven, I genuinely appreciate your opinions. I was wondering what you think about Nokia, I am not as experienced as you are but in my humble opinion it represents a lot of value. What do you think? Thank you.
How are you doing on your BABA position Sven?
:-)
i love rewatching this sven as i cant believe how low it is opportunity of a lifetime imo thanks
thanks!
Well, you were (in hindsight) a bit early. Before Charlie Munger even :) . But I do agree: people who are patient enough will ultimately make money off this buy.
it is about managing the position too!
Merry Xmas have you been Dr. Carlin! Just asking what you mean when you say "Terminal multiple" and how you compute it regarding the other data. Anyways, as soon as I can I'm gonna download the excel spreadsheet. Thank u very much for your lessons and happy New Year's Eve!
Hey Sven! The only thing I'd want to add: when you compare $60 billion today to what will happen in 5+ years, you should also consider inflation. With all the money being printed (and who knows how much will be injected in the economy in the future too), that might not look like a lot of money by the end of the 2020s.
Their revenue is in RMB (chinese currency) so they won’t have any problem with the us dollar being inflated like there is no tomorrow
Complementary:
Baba trading at 2018 levels with revenues 2x since then. About the same free Cash flow as Amazon. Amazon mcap 3x more, P/E 93 vs 29 Baba
Great coverage, keep the updates coming, high interest from many investors !
Thank you Sven
Thanks for sharing!
Great analysis Sven!
Thank you Sven. I asked for this last week and you delivered. I started a position a few weeks ago but am looking to add to it. I just can’t see the party in China stymieing one of there tech champions. I feel they have made there point now. I bought them in HK to avoid some of the VIE risk.
I feel when analyzing Chinese stocks, political influence has to be heavily factored in. More than 250 powerful Chinese entrepreneurs and government officials have died mysteriously since Xi has been in power (most of them were middle-aged). The CCP has seized control of many companies too. Jack Ma hasn’t shown his face for over two months so something serious may be happening to him and his company as we speak. I’ve seen people comparing the lawsuits that Alibaba is facing with those filed against Google... but I don’t think the CEO of Google has to worry about disappearing involuntarily, or shares of the company falling into the hands of the US government.
agreed what you said; great company but political envir.....
Exactly.
With jack ma gone maybe baba is going up. Maybe for the better
@@alexkuo3832 with jack gone ; just lead to BABA taking over by CCP at a faster pace
As a Chinese investor, I’d say such concerns from the West is what caused the market cap of alibaba to go down.
Got in at $218 at market open long term buy and hold. Poor Dalio bought last quarter if I'm not mistaken.
Loading up on Baba today when price is 143 $/share :)
:-)
@@Value-Investing 133 $/share- still loading up on Baba :)
still happy?
@@myrra10 yes
Love this new format with the excel sheet. Anxious for a Kroger video in the future.
Hey Sven, before watching the video: I think BABA will go x3 in 10 years.
It will 2x in 2 years. 3x in 5 years
Loaded up on Baba. CRM is the next stock to watch under 220
If you can, please consider going back to a guangshen railway company.
I still love the stonk :)
And I still think this analysis was spot on👍🏻
Glad to hear it!
This stock got wrecked…
wrecked has another meaning in my dictionary.
@@Value-Investing Sven loves his Chinese stocks 😂
And Yeah, it did get wrecked.
Again, another great video. I'm also happy to learn that you donate all of the youtube income
Definitely gonna DCA into this one!
Sven, do you think it's better to buy Alibaba on the HKEX or the NYSE? Would purchasing it in Hongkong mitigate any delisting risks?
I check this video every now and then as a reminder to not follow youtube financial analysis
good for you , you didnt lose money , following youtube for investing is like following football gambler sometimes you win and sometimes you lose , best way is to dca index fund
Love your videos and analysis Sven! I would really like to know your thoughts on Reliance industries.
Question do most growth stocks that make it, when they reach a a certain point start paying dividends?
No. Dividends are something companies can decide to pay or not. Baba does not pay divididends, and it has no relation with the size of the company. Regards.
@@elreyAlito Then what keeps people invested in a company once the stock begins to slow down(growth stocks)? They can't grow forever.
@@indirectlc5545 see how Amazon and FB have evolved and you will understand. These stocks are expected to grow and grow
@@elreyAlito Ah bet thanks. Find it dumb. Facebook should pay a dividend and amazon as well.
@@indirectlc5545 After a while if a growth company hits a plateau and can’t grow as fast anymore (saturation of the market for instance), they can reduce the amount they invest in CAPEX as the return on investment in trying to grow the company is becoming low. When that happens, they need to spend the capital in other ways. They can either start to acquire other companies (can be dangerous, acquisitions are complex) or they can pay back the shareholder (dividends and / or buybacks). An example of that would Apple.
great analysis ! accumulated over 6 months average now 256 with last buys this week. It can go to its 180 dollars again but surely the risk is substantial for this stock. I am looking at limits for 215 and lower to get in during the coming months.
Wow, I just initiated a position this morning and then this showed up in my recommendations. I watch a lot of your videos so it's not abnormal for you to show up in my feed, but it IS abnormal for a video to show up that recommends a company that I just purchased. LOL
thats been happening to me lately as well must be the algos
The Google Algo is strong ;)
You guys buy stocks too!? LOL 😆 🤣
Lmao how is your investment doing
Same
Great videos Sven! Just a technical question about something I'm not understanding. In your DCF template models, it seems like the terminal value is always equal to the 2nd to last year cash flow multiplied by the terminal multiple, instead of the last year cash flow multiplied by the terminal multiple. Is it supposed to be that way or am I doing something wrong in my calculation? Thank you!
I have noticed and asked this previously on a different video
I don't have 2030 data in 2030, I only have 2029 data :-)
Thank you!
What does the disappearance of Jack Ma mean for the company?
Meaning that the company will not grow as expected, because the Chinese government doesn’t want you become too big and out of control
It's in the Chinese government's interest for Alibaba to succeed. Further, Ma has been retired from Alibaba since 2018. China won't let BABA or any company get too powerful without them also having stake but that doesn't mean they will crush them.
Jack Ma is not missing he's just laying low away from the gaze of the Chinese government after criticizing the clunky banking system which according to me is required to put a lease on all companies to become Stakeholding based rather than Shareholding based.
Also almost all companies in China is the government's pet which means they cannot go overboard but at the same time they would be receiving full support of the government in bad times, investing in Chinese stocks is quite safe but don't expect steady growth.
Sven your channel has become so big now, that you are moving the market.😛 I wish uou all the best and a happy new year!
Happy new year!
Chinese companies carry way too much regulatory risk for me to invest.
Thanks for the video, Sven. How do you evaluate the fair price (or for that matter, market cap) of a company trading on multiple stock exchanges? If Alibaba has investors in China and USA, shouldn't the market cap be the sum of the cps on these 2 exchanges, and therefore shouldn't the evaluations take this into consideration?
To keep my question simple - let's say a company floats 100 shares on NYSE and 100 on Tokyo Stock Exchange. If I buy 1 share of the company on NYSE, do I own 1% of the company or 0.5% of the company?
long BABA,BIDU, and tencent!
thanks for sharing!
Great video! Thank you so much for your insights.
Will continue to check out a few more of your videos.
Awesome, thank you!
If you bought BABA at the time of the video you'd be down 35%. Thanks "Sven" from Yugoslavia!
and?
Yea, the problem with these 'analysts' or 'experts' is that their analysis is worth nothing, and actually they're wrong more than half the time, worse than coin flips.
if it was cheap then it is cheaper now.... just buy and wait.... I mean what do you expect... just look at the fundamentals and let time do the rest
@@benjaminbritsch1749 I'm messing with him, I do believe the company is massively hit but if Chinese stocks remain unpopular what's the point?
@@actuallyilyts1757 sooner or later that will change... The good thing with growth stocks is you have to wait anyway... When they earn 20Bucks per share it will be at 400 or they can buy back shares on a massive scale. Either way we win.
Thankyou.. Looking forward to your opinion on BABA in 2021... As you said if retailers keep panicking it might drop further...
You would have been BROKE by now buying BABA at that Point, following given advice
hahaha
@@Value-Investing ?
@@Value-Investing u ok?
Maybe if u buy on margin and or with money u cannot afford to leave in the market for 5 to 10 years.
Munger is thinking like you! He has bought this in the Daily Journal portfolio. Maybe Li Lu told him to pull the trigger! Munger would probably say that this is much better than holding cash!
:-)
this stock is no value investing , it just especulation. normally, when you buy a stock, you buy a part of the company, not with the chinese stocks...
so, even Buffett moved away from Graham...
Nice video! this is a great example that the gov gets involved when a company becomes too greedy. The reputation of Jack Ma went down hill after he preached that working from 9am to 9pm 6 days per week ("996") was a blessing. Now, he challenged the central gov by saying that the banking system in China is like a pawn shop. I am not a fan of the central gov but I knew the gov would go after him. Regardless, BABA is good buy because of its cloud business, but JD's ecosystem in ecommerce will be more sustainable.
If you can read Chinese news in Chinese and know the background of what they are looking for just dont jump in choose another stock
why? not buy for now?
What's the Chinese POV on Alibaba? I'm curious too.
@Yi MOU Please let us know a few more details.
@@VaiskHD they are shrugging it off making it sound like it’s no big deal...
我觉得应该没啥大毛病
Hi Svenn Great video. Have you seen the China Hustel on Netflix? And is this a that is applying to Ali Baba risk?
Did anyone watch Netflix's documentary "The China Hustle"? It really scared me about investing in Chinese companies...
why did it scare you?
Yeah, also saw it. Actually, I do not think this is a problem with a company like Alibaba, they are too big to be able to perpetrate such a fraud and, honestly, I think they would not do that even if they could.
@@erikmerkaj1825 because of how easily they were able to scam investors. It stated very clearly that Chinese businesses only get 'in trouble' if they defraud and break laws in China. They don't care at all if they do it to foreign investors. If you get a chance to watch the documentary you'll understand where I am coming from.
However I must admit the documentary, great youtube channels like Sven's and minor personal 'google' research is the extent of my knowledge.
dont invest your money in a company under a dictatorship rules....as soon as you do is not your moneybut theirs and if you loose ...you cant complain stupid is stupid does.....is your american money ...invest it in american companies
@@moisesbeyond Australian mate. 🇦🇺But I get what you mean.
In my very humble opinion, as a trainee investor, this is why technical analysis could be helpful
easy to predict after things have happened, unfortunately it doesn't work like that!
BABA analysis assumes BABA's accounting is accurate. Lucking Coffee a great example. Yes, different companies. But worth considering a margin of error.
different companies...BUT both are run with the same principle and under the same goverment...for chinese mentality to defraud inside China is wrong but not if is outside they see as a right to do so.....with such ethics I wouldnt put my oney in their pockets.
Thank you very much sven. I would love a follow up in the next weeks
Oh boy… this video was from a year ago… you should have waited a year to post it…
not really :-0
@@Value-Investing well, the stock is $129 now… now it’s definitely a buy…
Hey @sven, great content. I was wondering why NYSE price change bus not following HK stock exchange. I understand that it's an ARD in NYSE but normally the price change bare quite close. Am I right?
This went bad
depends on your perspective!
@@Value-Investing in what perspective losing 50% of your investment is not bad?
@@koogle 😂😂😂
@@koogle losing 50% of investment in what timeframe? A year? When Sven said its a long-term play?
@@MagicNash89 A play that could resulted in more gains if a technicals analysis was made. In 28 dec when this video was posted, BABA was @220$, a good entry point, on the previous support, after a bounce to 270$, it went back at the multi year support line. I exited when it broke under it, and avoided a -40% drawdown.
Much love Sven.. tyyyyyyy coment before saw the video :D
Legend!
This didn't age well
here you have 15 more, don't focus on just this one ua-cam.com/video/UKaOMs1kEo0/v-deo.html
whatever sven says, i will buy it!
This hasn’t aged well
I'm finally building a position myself.
this hasn't aged at all :_)))
Here after 1 year to the day, and oh man first time holding one of those stocks that keep going down even though I'm convinced it's good. The greats were not kidding when they said that the market humbles you and doles out it's fair share of psychological damage, luckily I love it so I'm having fun, hope whoever is reading this feels somewhat the same way.
that is how it goes, you can only survive if you know you are holding good!
This aged well.
thanks for the feedback
Hi Sven . I bougth today in the floor baba, jd, tencent, if tomorrow go up again for me is a dead cat bounce. But I am not sure. So take the profits of only the stocks I bougth today. and wait the fall with more money. What do you think.? how I can see your plataform . how to follow what you do?. if you need my mail tell me . Again sorry for my english. you are the best.
I really don't know what will happen in the short term
Damn this didnt age well
for me, it didn't age at all yet :-))))
Vie structure that’s interesting 🤔 didn’t know that.. thanks for the video:)
This aged well
this will never age
It would probably be beneficial for you to run a few simulations on what the average annual return is for 10 years if you buy at 200 or if you buy at 220 and you end up selling 10 years later at different price points of 300, 500, 1000, 1500 and 2000. This is the reason why Buffett and Munger say it is better to buy an excellent company at decent prices than a decent company at excellent prices. Getting an excellent company at excellent prices is just icing on the cake.
Amazing information Sven, thank you!
Seems you totally ignored political risks in Chinese and russian companies.
How it’s doing your Gasprom? )))))))
I bought BABA at the start of 2020. I rode it up and rode it down, it’s now roughly the same price as when I bought it. I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom yet. It will probably recover but who knows when or by how much. There’s added risk and fear when buying Chinese stock, I don’t think it’s right to make a comparison with Amazon.
Value investing is dead.
always is, always will be! Exactly why it always works!
Ciao Sven, grazie per il tuo Video.
Oggi ho trovato in Alibaba un buon punto di ingresso a 120usd.
Secondo qual è un buon punto uscita? Meglio tenere fino al 2030 senza guardare il prezzo oppure c’è una quotazione alla quale vendere? (Esempio stupido 1000 usd)
vedremo nel 2036 :-)
Still stand behind this recommendation? What a joke..
I guess the joke is on you, just few people understand investing!
@@Value-Investing timing is everything. You didn't learn that? I will unsubscribe from your worthless advice you arrogant #%#!
@@macdaddy9340 bro😂
@@macdaddy9340 Timing is for traders, so you were obviously on the wrong channel, and if you want steady growth tyr the All Season portfolio or similar, also not really a topic on this channel.
@@macdaddy9340 timing is everything for traders and gamblers, not investors you mor0n
What is the safest exchange to buy Alibaba stock? I understand that the listing on the NYSE are not shares in the company, but an indirect construction, while you can buy the real shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Is that right? Or does it not matter that much?
same, you only avoid delisting US risks by buying in HK. even if that takes time!
Not a hater... big fan and love you work Sven, but sketchy chinese shell companies are exactly that. BABA is a shell company in the caymen islands. Good luck and with the upcoming financial environment and the collapse of the yuan. The dollar is becoming worthless, but the yuan is also a currency that's backed by a communist mindset spells nothing but danger. Put that on top of a company who's share structure doesn't entitle you to anything if they go under or are simply taken over by the government.... erm just no (also buffett doesn't hold it and berkshire is a huge portion of the stock market. Has to be a reason and it's not going to be because it's not a value investment :) )
Hi Sven! Great video as usual!
One question though - with all this tension between the US and China, what would happen if Alibaba is kicked out of the NYSE? Would that mean an investor, who bough shares through the NYSE, would lose all its investment?
Thanks!
for now it is not happening, but we will see!