Gary Brode: Yen Carry Trade Unwind Has Just Started? Leveraged Short Vol Margin Calls Hurting Banks?
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- Опубліковано 16 вер 2024
- Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed former hedge fund manager and founder of Deep Knowledge Investing deepknowledgei..., Gary Brode
Follow Gary on Twitter/X here: x.com/Gary_Brode/
During this 40+ minute interview, Gary talks about why the yields dropped so quickly on the 10 year US Treasury yield and why he thinks that the unwind of the Yen carry trade has just started.
Jason talks about the feedback loop of the Yen Carry trade and the leveraged short volatility trade unwinding together and causing margin calls for hedge funds and also problems for the lenders (banks) and borrowers (hedge funds or portfolio managers at banks) who have put these trades on.
Gary lays out the case how both political parties prefer inflation and currency debasement and he likes gold, Bitcoin, energy companies (not ESG) and healthcare companies as inflation hedges.
Even 2% inflation per year is still theft and it is too much. It also compounds over decades and destroys purchasing power and your standard of living.
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WARNING: Asking for additional free work in any way, shape or form (iTunes, Spotify, stock picks, live stream shows, etc,) you are risking being immediately blocked from commenting. Every hustle or mind game or manipulation has already been tried on me. Insulting me or my interview guests or constant complaining about audio quality, etc will also get you blocked.
I've been a subscriber for over a decade, and I still can't understand why this channel isn't a much more popular channel. UA-cam must be screwing this channel with algorithm rape.... The guests on this channel are A1. And even if I don't agree completely with the guests, I respect their ability to rationally articulate their point of view....
This channel is an excellent place to subscribe.
I agree. But you have to pay UA-cam thousands of Dollars per month to rapidly grow subscribers. I can not compete with the larger financial companies that can afford to hire employees and also spend thousands to pay UA-cam to grow. I may sell the UA-cam channel soon as I am hardly making any money per month anymore and I am destroying my health doing all of this work for free. I should sell the UA-cam channel immediately and move on to higher paying work only. I would love to never do anymore free work. My goal for 2023 was to be done with all free work. Same for 2024. I don't want to work for free anymore
@WallStForMainSt I think you should do what's in your best interest. Way back in the 1970s Robert J Ringer (best selling author and self-made man) advised me on how to "Look Out For #1".... And every man needs to do that in business, health, romance, family and all other aspects of life.... including your relationship with Almighty God.
My advice to you is to weed out all distractions and relationships and freebies and focus on what will contribute to your happiness.
I wish you well.
@RealNewsChannel I have had a lot of potential business deals with new partners go bad. I thought for sure one was done in June 2023 and just had to sign contracts after the other party got back from a European vacation with his family. Then no phone calls or emails or text messages or direct messages ever again since. I get nasty messages from adults on social media who expect me to work for free for them in near unlimited amounts daily. It was around a dozen per day before I started blocking and muting people like crazy
Totally, the education you get here is for the silent minority. Seek and you shall find. Jason is a legend.
And as the first poster says, it wouldn’t be surprising if this channel is targeted. They seem to be hell bent on suppression of free speech, which through discourse, could lead to the truth of the matter. We are all victims of what is happening, we all know it by now.
The greatest period of economic growth in history happened in a deflationary environment. They call it the industrial revolution.
@FlailingJunk correct. Also similar for Moore's Law with computers and semiconductors. The prices for quality computers fell
Outstanding - perfect example!
Gary Brode is another extremely knowledgeable person to listen to. Thank you Jason for introducing him to me. Great conversation!
@@PJ_MIKE you're welcome
Thanks, PJ. Much appreciated!
Best guest, yet! Brilliant👍👍👍
@@TeddyBess I have a lot of great guests!
Thanks, Teddy. Much appreciated!
Bank of Japan will probably need currency swap lines to deal with Japanese banks having loan losses on Yen carry trade, etc.
Excellent thanks Jason - and a prayer for your health and happy long life
@RB-kg6kz you're welcome. Unfortunately, my health will only improve if my monthly income increases a lot and I am working way less than now. It probably also means that I might sell the UA-cam channel soon unless a new business partner steps up. I do not see myself doing this for much longer especially lots and lots of free work. I would rather sell the UA-cam channel and move only only higher paying work
Hope it all works out favour
Great, stuff, Jason. I liked the clear explanation of the recent behaviour of the VIX.
@jayd6813 Thanks! The problem is all of these overleveraged trades. Margin calls from one going bad can spill into another
Thanks for listening, Jay!
Thanks Jason!
@@Dracandros76 you're welcome
The film was Tenet
@@jew931 I think I saw that one
The difference between parties isn't about spending, it is how the default will be handled and if there will be economic incentives to do anything useful for others.
@@slekzieds I would argue that both parties disagree about how to waste/steal the funds from tax receipts or currency debasement
Interesting perspective. Thanks!
Lately I have been having a lot of conversations about gold and silver with normal people on the street, and relatively young, typically under 40.
@@Stone881 which country do you live in?
Sounds like your advice is being well-received. Keep up the great work!
As someone who drives only vehicles from the 20'th century, I have found that the cars them are far better than the ugly tech filled crap they build today. Funny how my USED 1969 Dodge Charger is worth more than when it was new despite being a rust bucket. As said here, any inflation is not stable prices, period.
@chargermopar my dad used to own similar cars in his young adult days. And he knows how to repair a car well
Great point. My daily driver is an E46 M3. It's worth more now than when I bought it in 2004.
Upvoted for the squirrel story 🐿️
Thanks samnater. He is a squirrel of unusual character (but normal size) ;)
Great insight on this, thinking from the perspective of rule of 72 really drives home how detrimental inflation is on our livelihoods.
I do have to ask when he’s says buy more energy such as oil and uranium is he referring specifically to stocks or maybe long term holds of options?
@Ambience88 Sprott also has the physical uranium trust and other metals trusts now
@@WallStForMainSt great thanks for the insight and content 💪🏾🫡
@Ambience88 In general, I do not answer stock questions for free anymore. That is one of the major reasons I want to sell the UA-cam channel ASAP is that I am tired of so many people constantly trying to harass me or hustle me for near unlimited free work and stock picks without paying a cent for anything. I would love to sell the UA-cam channel for a good price and move on altogether from free work immediately
Thanks, Ambience. We own individual stocks (E&P and infrastructure) as well as physical uranium. We also own some utility exposure where there are nuclear assets.
Thanks Jayson this is one of my favorite channel great guests full of easy to understand the wizards in the White House and there blatant B S
@@barbaraatkinson2204 you are very welcome, Barbara
Thanks for listening, Barbara!
Gary is wise.
@@dazedhavoc he had a good track record as a hedge fund manager and his paid newsletter has many winning stock picks
@@WallStForMainSt Thanks Jason. We're releasing our next stock pick to subscribers this week.
Hey Jason, please let Gary know that the movie that he is thinking about it Tenet 😂
Base line f150s aren't 70k lol. That's like for an offroad higher trim package like the Ford raptor.
You can get a new stripped down f150 or baseline model for under 50k out the door.
@MeZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZ not sure which area you live in but good luck getting a brand new Ford truck for $45k. The fully loaded ones are $90k or more in a major city or metro area. With an auto loan, you also are not really paying sub $50k for any new car.
Many companies raise their prices higher than the inflation rate is why they get blamed for inflation.
@shanedavison7473 have you ever spoken to a small business owner or the manager or GM of a corporate location that has said they delayed raising prices for for many years in the past for customers? That definitely happened over the last 15 plus years. You sound like you hate Capitalism but you don't seem to understand how screwed many small business owners are now
@@WallStForMainSt I am mainly talking about the big corporations. I have seen prices in the supermarket and at car lots go to insane prices for absolutely no reason.
@@shanedavison7473 Coca Cola has recently removed all of the vitamins from Vitamin Water after they bought it. Large corporations are not the entire economy
Health care is sick care. I stopped buying medical insurance in 2016 and have invested in my own health!
What if Satoshi is NSA and the US gov is sitting on that 10% supply of bitcoin? This explains the recent US pivot on crypto after acting like they were against it while the world adopted it.
@@vindictii Bitcoin would eventually be taxed to death or outlawed. CBDC seems to be the main goal
@@WallStForMainSt why would they outlaw their own creation?
@vindictii it would serve its purpose after years of getting people used to crypto currencies and no paper money. Only digital. Bitcoin and block chain technology can be hijacked by Big Government. It can also be used as a gateway drug. Many adults are signing up for Government CDBC in other countries voluntarily. The government routinely abandons old plans or adapts them. Sometime even a 180° on policies entirely
@vindictii Bitcoin is supposed to be decentralized. And government crypto or CDBC is centralized
@@WallStForMainSt What if the extents of Bitcoin's centralization remain covert? On the surface it appears decentralized, but really the US gov controls a significant portion of the supply, as well as the mining networks. We are looking out for CBDCs when there is already a partially centralized CBDC with global adoption (BTC)
The price cap on food is to drive small farmers out of business.
@@jwill540 Walz, the Bernie Sanders facsimile, wanted to buy votes from poor people with the promise of more guaranteed food
I'm concerned about attempts to reduce the food supply as well. That's a smart comment, jwill.
@@DeepKnowledgeInvestingholodomer 2.0, long pig BBQs