🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE and watch the rest of our top-rated interviews rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw. 01:03 - Introduction to the Business Cycle Framework 02:40 - The Flaws of Traditional Economics 04:02 - Understanding Cycles: Business Cycle and Secular Cycles 05:20 - The Role of Demographics in the Business Cycle 07:13 - Positive Demographics in Emerging Markets 07:40 - Long-Term Equity Market Cycle 10:08 - Commodity Super Cycle 11:34 - Debt Super Cycle and Its Impact 13:06 - Debt Problems in the West 14:33 - Inflation and Deflation in the Debt Cycle 15:32 - The Importance of the Business Cycle in Investment 16:27 - Business Cycle vs Recession Indicators 17:22 - The ISM and Its Importance in Forecasting 19:40 - The Legacy of Greenspan and Suppressed Volatility 21:13 - ISM vs US GDP: Business Cycle Correlation 22:09 - ISM vs World GDP: The Global Impact of the US Business Cycle 24:02 - Long-Term Trends: Secular Cycle and Business Cycle 25:01 - ISM and S&P 500 Correlation 26:02 - Understanding the Business Cycle’s Influence on Equities 28:00 - Lumber and Copper Prices vs ISM 29:58 - Oil Prices and the Business Cycle 31:20 - Credit Spreads and ISM Correlation 32:51 - Bond Yields and the Business Cycle 33:22 - CPI and Inflation Forecasting with ISM 34:19 - The Short-Term Economic Cycle: City Economic Surprise Index (CESI) 36:24 - Forecasting Future Business Cycles with CESI and ISM 37:26 - Conclusion: Understanding the Business Cycle for Investment Success 39:45 - The Importance of Behavioral Science in Economic Forecasting
Still is relevant... compare European and US pmi/ism wouldnt hurt to look at EM pmi aswell...where it goes next will expose if we are risk on or risk off over near medium term... if things are bad we are looking at equity bear markets and bullish bond markets... if everything's looking great we are all In equity and crypto... big difference between outcomes of returns
What about corp. tax rates / to business cycle effects in the US as John Paulsen is going around saying that a mkt. crash will occur if rates go up under KH ?
In 2024, Cryptonica Liquidity Pool is the real MVP, flipping those crypto wallet L's into major gains. Dive into the alpha move of the year and let your digital dough stack up.
🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE and watch the rest of our top-rated interviews rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw.
01:03 - Introduction to the Business Cycle Framework
02:40 - The Flaws of Traditional Economics
04:02 - Understanding Cycles: Business Cycle and Secular Cycles
05:20 - The Role of Demographics in the Business Cycle
07:13 - Positive Demographics in Emerging Markets
07:40 - Long-Term Equity Market Cycle
10:08 - Commodity Super Cycle
11:34 - Debt Super Cycle and Its Impact
13:06 - Debt Problems in the West
14:33 - Inflation and Deflation in the Debt Cycle
15:32 - The Importance of the Business Cycle in Investment
16:27 - Business Cycle vs Recession Indicators
17:22 - The ISM and Its Importance in Forecasting
19:40 - The Legacy of Greenspan and Suppressed Volatility
21:13 - ISM vs US GDP: Business Cycle Correlation
22:09 - ISM vs World GDP: The Global Impact of the US Business Cycle
24:02 - Long-Term Trends: Secular Cycle and Business Cycle
25:01 - ISM and S&P 500 Correlation
26:02 - Understanding the Business Cycle’s Influence on Equities
28:00 - Lumber and Copper Prices vs ISM
29:58 - Oil Prices and the Business Cycle
31:20 - Credit Spreads and ISM Correlation
32:51 - Bond Yields and the Business Cycle
33:22 - CPI and Inflation Forecasting with ISM
34:19 - The Short-Term Economic Cycle: City Economic Surprise Index (CESI)
36:24 - Forecasting Future Business Cycles with CESI and ISM
37:26 - Conclusion: Understanding the Business Cycle for Investment Success
39:45 - The Importance of Behavioral Science in Economic Forecasting
Raoul has eaten all the bananas
LOL!
😂
OMG! haha
😂😂😂😂😂
Would love to see an updated video for 2024 Raoul 🙂
Sure, this one person knows better than all Economists ever.
As a finance student, this is gold.
Thank you so much for this video! I’m greatly benefited 🙏🏻❤️
Wait, this video is like eight years old?
Still is relevant... compare European and US pmi/ism wouldnt hurt to look at EM pmi aswell...where it goes next will expose if we are risk on or risk off over near medium term... if things are bad we are looking at equity bear markets and bullish bond markets... if everything's looking great we are all In equity and crypto... big difference between outcomes of returns
Also great for predicting when to be involved in commodities
Yes, def needs to be updated :)
Sometimes we only know how dead right someone is by looking at exactly what they predicted nearly a decade ago. It’s called credibility.
Please read the description. It's our compilation of our best videos for our 10th anniversary.
Great video, Raoul. Thanks.
The disconnect between the business cycle and asset inflation is FED printing
Excellent video, Raoul. Thanks for making it.
Glad you liked it!
That can't be Raoul, he's wearing a collared shirt!!
"US will be in full recession in Q3 2016".
Raoul certainly improved these years
What about corp. tax rates / to business cycle effects in the US as John Paulsen is going around saying that a mkt. crash will occur if rates go up under KH ?
Wow great podcast
Raoul, thanks a lot for your explanation, too bad that all charts stop at 2016.
The best!
It's not about economics anymore; it's about politics 😊
Love it, here is some sacrifice to the algorithm 😂
THX RAOUL👍
thanks
2016? Took me a while to get this, should have been in the title IMO 😅
It's in the video on the corner and in the video description.
How about investing in innovation and improve the future of a guilty income cycle thanks
Can the national debt be tokenized on the blockchain?😅
Don’t miss Kaspa, Raoul.
Video is from 2016
Is this Raouls AI ?
Please read the description and air date on the screen. It's a video from 2016
So we are 0.2% away from an 80% chance of recession, cutting it fine!
haven't watched yet, but One big sales pitch? and If it was this easy.... ??
In 2024, Cryptonica Liquidity Pool is the real MVP, flipping those crypto wallet L's into major gains. Dive into the alpha move of the year and let your digital dough stack up.
Is this his AI?
no. Please read the description
Too long didn't watch: Buy Bitcoin. Lots of Bitcoin
Anderson Gary Hernandez Karen Hall Maria
remember this guy bought out of money calls with all his liquid capital on eth in 2020 🤣🤣🤣
How old is this video!😴
There's an uncanny Trumpness to the way Raoul expresses himself sometimes
What happened to the ETH hype ???