Well only major difference I see is that works governments have been working together in the modern global economy another hundred years. Another hundred years of experience with quantitative easy, helicopter $ & even currency recetting. The US isn't the only country experience low growth high debt. Who knows how the world order will use the tools they have to pull the world out of it.
Hey, this has already TRANSCENDED the Great Depression. If anything, this could potentially become something that will be devastating and will change the fate of America forever -- FOR THE WORSE. And not for the better...
To be fair, Rome took around 200 years to fully fall apart. Even if you multiply the speed 10 fold due to the speed of information, its still 20 years. Ironically this is roughly how long it took Venezuela to go from prosperity to poverty.
I wonder what our ancestors would say if they looked at what is happening in the countries to which they dedicated their lives and gave the lives of their sons.
I am not an economist or analyst or ever showed any real interest in this subject. I must say I could listen to you all day. I find your information very positive as it is so explicit and factual. I note from your video that the world is basically in the same boat and my anxiety has definitely improved and I can be less critical of the government of the country in which I live. Thank you. I will make it my business to listen to your views on the world economies.
Market low during post WW1 recession: end of August 1921 Market high in 1929: end of August 1929. Average annual return on US market, with dividends reinvested upon payment = 23%. Market low after GFC: March 9, 2009 Most recent all time high: February 19, 2020 Average annual return on US market, with dividends reinvested upon payment = 16.7% As per Wilshire 5000 with dividends reinvested.
I think the real drop in people’s wealth will happen very quickly , currency creation has already eroded wealth but nobody has noticed yet , stock market trouble always seems to happen in the autumn and there seems to be lots of bad news that will all come together then You will wake up one morning and realise you are not nearly as well of as you thought you were the day before and there will be no easy way to get your wealth back , and that will be the start of the depression
My forecast is a technical analysis of the mind-boggling broadening top formation on monthly view charts. What happened in March was a gyration WITHIN the top formation. That's how colossal the chart pattern is. The next gyration could occur in late 2020, and - even if it stays within the humungous horn - seems likely to plunge somewhat lower than March. That October or November shakeout of around 10,000 Dow (about 40%) is STILL the prelude, because price action still remains in the broadening top. Harder to be specific on timing out from there; but there may or may not be a Christmas or early 2021 bear rally. The final stage is prices falling out of the chart pattern as a "measured move" of approximately the full amplitude of the horn... from the lower lip of the horn... which is basically down to gravel and sticks with the Dow down as much as 20,000 points (as an intra-day level on the worst day); that's a 70% tumble from its post-covid bounce to 27,500, give or take. If I'm right, the gut-wrenching completion of the chart pattern may play out over mid- to late-2021, or into 2022, with the bottom at either Dow 12,000 or 8,000. That lower number is the very structural support level established by the GFC. This 2 stage crash - say, October 2020, followed by a further, deeper slump maybe a year after that - would mirror the 1929/1930 Great Depression crash in a general sense. I could be wrong and will look a fool. But there is no denying the giant broadening top on a monthly view of, say, the SP500 to see the clearest view of it. If it doesn't jump out at you, try compressing the time axis with your chart tools. It has been forming since November 2017, so it is already very large and mature; and it only remains to see on which gyration it will tumble out of the horn. And it has already had enough gyrations to be "at full term". BTW, I am self-taught and have a pretty poor record of investing.
Omg since the 90s!! The WTC, the Gulf War, the chase for Mass Weapons of Destruction, were horrible ditch efforts to funnel money into this failed economy.
I'm 24 & looking to put down a deposit on a house within ~1-2 years, and so this super-rally has been rather worrying for me. Although I've made gains by buying the dip (in a new Vanguard SIPP + existing HL account), and my previous HL index trackers regained much of their value from before the first drop, I'm starting to get worried about just how "greedy" the market appears... Just this morning, a few hours before this video, I've switched almost all of my LISA and S&S ISA equity (~100%) to UK and US (hedged) treasuries - capital preservation is key for me for the immediate future - don't want to risk losing a big chunk of my first-house deposit to a second dip... I'd rather keep aggressively buying global equity in my SIPP (target retirement in/around 2060) and keep my LISAs & easy access HL S&S ISA in cash and safe treasuries for the time being... Cheers for another great video Ramin
When I think back to when I was 24... I am now retried, the important thing was to be consistent in saving for retirement and ensuring I was in a good and secure job. I bought a house using a mortgage when interest rates were at 15% and I nearly starved ensuring that I paid the monthly mortgage without missing one but it was worth it. I think the message I am trying to give is that at 24 you have to take the long game view. Market crashes, house price crashes, pandemics, etc... are blips along the way. Suddenly selling and buying like a day trader for a long term goal is likely to leave you worse off unless you are a real fortune teller. When I did try to do that I usually missed the peaks and the troughs so in other words bought and sold exactly at the wrong times. I then realised that the very rich manipulate the markets to suck the assets from the gullible, they have the flexibility and cash to gamble, I did not.
I don't envy being young and in this financial situation. I bought my first house after turning 22 yrs old in 1981 making $3.50/hr US. You're much more advanced and forward looking than me, still. Owning where I live and letting the real estate do the work was a good move. I owned 4 houses for a bit but landlording sucks. IMHO: Real estate prices will lower- and I'm stacking physical gold to a much higher % as a store of wealth, rather than the Ponzi-ish equities game. In my case, I'm retiring early and getting what I can out of various pensions and 401K while keeping a couple as I continue to work as long as possible or until serious inflation hits - at that point we'll move to a cheaper country with low risk of social strife. - just my .02, best of luck to you.
@@billytheweasel Indeed, it's a bit bonkers - I'm still going to be saving heavily into my SIPP (UK self-invested personal pension - kind of like a 401k) so that I can hopefully retire early too... I just don't want my "house deposit" nest egg to evaporate should a serious recession / depression take place over the next
Stock prices fell in later years in the 1930's because widespread bank speculation wiped out savings of millions of depositors. Without depositor cash, there was no fuel to invest in stock markets. Without a buyer of last resort stocks fell sharply. At that time depositors had very little exposure to equities. Today the FED has become the buyer of last resort so markets will not collapse as it did it the 1930's. The current FED has set a floor as to how low stock prices can fall. There will be a coming depression as many of the laid off workers will not have the required skills necessary to re-enter the workforce. However, with FED help, financial markets will still head towards record levels.
This is really about finally dealing with all the "can kicking" that has been going on for the last 50 years, the lies and manipulation in every corner of the financial markets, as well as the uneven accumulation of new wealth between the rich/upper and mid/lower classes. This happens throughout history over and over again. Just try and be as ready as you can, I personally have become a prepper of late and have one foot out of the system now. Get a plan B quick, and maybe a plan C and D just in case shtf
@@BlueGoat682 This is the reality...For many,this is already a Great Depression.. For some it’s a recession. For some great riches have come to them ... No need to be depressed, look at which circle your in and like any game ,make your best move . I really find this a very entertaining challenge to figure out my next move to survive... It’s all in how you view anything that will determine your personal outcome.. I have drawn my lines , that puts me in control of my life .. I will live and die by them ..
All that matters is good soils clean water and air and relative stable climate , so were heading for way worse than `great depression` unless you can eat shares.
Those things do come first. You aren't going to live long without good soil, clean air and water and a stable climate. A global depression just might be the solution for the environmental issues and many other problems as well. But it didn't have to be a choice. We could have had a thriving economy AND all those other things. "Conservatives" are bat sh(& crazy. I'm guessing that by now, most people have figured that out. Hopefully, it isn't too late.
It’s a depression for sure. Ray Dalio has an excellent analysis of what is going on. The debt supercycle has run its course and now we have to pay the piper. Huge unfounded liabilities in the US for sure.
The message is don't worry in the short term because we have socialism for the rich now which was not there in 1929 the question is how long will it last.
Great comparison and summary . So based on that we have .... near enough zero interest rates therefore no return on bank deposits inflated stock markets looking to correct and bond markets with negative yields ??? If you sit on cash you're at best getting no return at worst possibly missing out . Gold ? ...but things can get volatile in that market . What to do !!!???
Crypto is the answer. Digital revolution is coming and crypto debit cards are everywhere already. PayPal is also going to accept crypto soon. There is not enough gold in the world
This sounds like conventional wisdom rather than an exposition on what's really going on relative to what was going on during the period of the Great Depression.
I’m 18 unemployed and am taking a gap year before uni. It would cost me around £26000 for my course and with covid I’m not risking the debt. I have talked to many about what to do yet get a mixed response. I had uni offers and while the qualifications may lead to solid employment; the depression may cause those companies to liquidate and therefore no employment even with a degree. I’m so confused about the future (who isn’t) but like everyone else I just want a solid wage as it’s going to be my generation that will take the full force.
I try to hope so! Materialism has destroyed the earth we depend on. If electricity goes off for a few wks.....perhaps Pete will reset??? But I doubt it.
The analysis starts at the wrong point. The biggest difference between the economies of the Roaring Twenties and today is the TYPE of currencies in circulation. The Fed was created in 1913 and the Roaring Twenties were fueled by the newly created and inflationary Federal Reserve Notes which were, at that time, real promissory notes redeemable for REAL dollars (sic. silver one ounce coins) and were limited in supply. Both the promissory notes and the real silver dollars were in circulation and part of the money supply. The percentage of silver dollars in circulation did not vanish into thin air and acted as a floor to the price collapse of '29 caused by the pullback on the issuance of Federal Reserve Notes. The current economy is running 100% on Federal Reserve Notes which are fraudulent as they are not redeemable for anything (and thus are "promises" to pay nothing). There is no floor to the current downturn EXCEPT the injection of even more fake money (which merely accelerates the race to a currency collapse)because there is no alternative money to the Federal Reserve Notes. Another major difference is the large proportion (99%) of Federal Reserve Notes that exist only as digital entries in computer ledgers. Digital "money" can be (and is) created at lightning speed with a mouseclick (it takes more time to create paper money and to get it injected into the economy than digital "money"). The Federal Reserve of 1913 was limited in the amount of currency it could create by the fact it was all redeemable in real silver while today's Fed can (and does) create and infinite supply of digital "money" and can get it injected into the economy at lightning speeds. The present system can sustain itself for as long as the world believes in the delusion and utter lunacy that "money" can be worthless and created to infinite amounts. When the delusion vanishes, however, all the world's fake monies will also vanish. Unlike '29 when they still had a sizable percentage of real money in circulation, the collapse of the current fake money will leave the economy with NO money at all.
The great transition. Burning the Field by Marc F. Brocato 2006 The American Cash Cow - ALL BULLS OUT. Back in the old days, before fencing had subdivided and cordoned off the once opened areas of land throughout the south, the farmers and cattlemen of the day would burn off the fields and woodlands. During the summer, vegetation in the forms of grasses, briers, and various shrubs would grow in the open fields and meadows. These plants were a source of nutrition for livestock and a major food supply for the herds which where allowed to roam freely. In the fall of the year, winter would set in and the summer growth cycle would end. With the onset of cold winter weather, the grasses and other vegetation would die, leaving the landscape lifeless and brown. The purpose of burning the woods were twofold. First, the fire had a cleansing effect by clearing the ground of useless and unwanted debris. Secondly, nutrients where returned to the soil, making them available for the next succession of growth. One could look north and south, east and west, and see the numerous columns of smoke rising into the sky. The yearly roundup took place in the fall, at which time the cattle were gathered together. The ranchers collected their ( cash ) cows, some were sold at auction and others where put in places of safe keeping (Euro’s, Swiss franks, Yen, and gold.... ). Not until all the cattle where herded together and relocated were the fields and woods set on fire. This was the economic cycle that reoccurred year after year, a necessary evil of the day and was eventually outlawed.. Thousands of independent ranchers would be replaced by the large cooperate cattle companies. And so it is with food and many other good and services today, from the hands of the thousands who established the market, whatever that market might be, into the hands of the few who now control it. But that’s not the end of this story, it’s far from over. Apply these same principles and methods to the national and global economy. It appears as if the industrialists and financiers who control the economies of the world have been moving their cash cows out of the U.S. .for a long time in advance of a controlled burn or just maybe wildfire. The crash of the ‘30's was such an action, however, every major market on the face of the earth will be effected this go round. A well planned choreography of events will reshape the global economy in ways which the average individual cannot comprehend. When the fires are out and the smoke clears, the result will be an empty shell of a country, with an economic landscape barren and ready for the next season of growth. Enjoy your freedom and rights, savor them as you would your favorite meal. Life in the United States and the entire civilized world shall soon go through quiet a transition. Similar circumstances have overtaken unsuspecting populations in the past, but never the entire world, as it will this time. What shall be used as the form of ignition? Will it be a manipulated economic disaster, or some fabricated terrorist act. Perhaps a bonafide and unexpected act of God that was not a part of man’s planning. Maybe those in Washington will legislate the country out of existence by executive order, it’s amusing to think a thing like that is possible. Imagine, a economic system with no exchange rate, a global unit of currency. One currency and one governing authority. The surest way to prevent seditions is to take away the matter of them; for if there be fuel prepared, it is hard to tell whence the spark shall come that shall set it on fire. - Bacon.
central banks have absolute NO economic power. real economy and human productivity (real supply & demand) has. the higher amount of new money you put into economy - the higher inflation and destruction of your own currency will occur. economy strength is absolutely not about amount of money you inject into financial markets. those are two different things.
@Thomas Headley you are right, maybe i wasn't clear. I've just wanted to point that false believe central banks can save collapsing economy any time they want to. for sure they can heavily expand economic decay by extreme monetary policies, but not too long. and of course they can damage the economy easily. but they can't fight with nature and reverse debt crisis..
if printing money solves a recession, why isn't it been done before? Oh wait it has been done multiple times by multiple country and it has never worked before
At 8:25 I think the dates for the forecasts slid off... These are probably quarters 1, 2, 3 4 for 2020 and 2021 whereas it says Q1, Q4, Q1, Q4. But a really nice video.
Looking back at the 1920s what asset classes did well and what asset classes suffered severely. I think I read that government bonds did very well. what about Gold? Look in to the future how are different asset classes likely to perform under several different scenarios. Say bounce back to growth, 1-2 year recession, 3-5 depression. What leason can we learn for developing a balanced portfolio for the 2020s.
@Nomen Nesceo This depression is going to be preceded by hyperinflation. Your money will be worthless. Fat Donnie increased the national debt from 2 trillion dollars to 12 trillion (correct me if that figure is incorrect) overnight. And he isn't finished yet. He's trying to get re-elected by bribing voters. All will be in the same damn boat.
The interview starts with the narrator talking in front of a radiator. Radiators are heat exchangers used to transfer thermal energy from one medium to another for the purpose of cooling and heating. I guess the Fed has convinced most people that it acts like a radiator for the economy. If markets are overheating they will increase rates and cool markets off. If the markets enter a recession they lower rates to heat the economy up. But we are about to learn the Fed doesn't effectively monitor and heal economies but rather they destroy economies over time. After the coming depression blooms the public will loose faith in the fed and the dollar. Gold will skyrocket as people panic. It is inevitable. Our beautiful country has been sold for cheap goods. Our leaders have taken pieces of silver to enrich themselves and impoverish us all. Remember them when you're bankrupt and hungry. Never forget.
Recession were more frequent, deeper and last longer when on the gold standard. There is a need for central banks and fiat money has not been so bad. There's still alot of room for improvement.
Hi Phil H as a physicist I like your heat analogy. But I don't agree. If you (a) have a job (b) have a credit card (c) have a mortgage (d) have a pension (e) buy goods and services in US dollars then you have the Fed to thank for the fact that those markets are not in a much more perilous state. You don't have to listen to many speeches by Powell or other Fed officials to hear that they are utterly committed to helping the real economy. If you're looking for the Bad Guys you won't find many of them at the Fed. Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft a. 40 million don't have jobs. The CARES printed $2 trillion to effectively monetize the debt. July 31st the $600 weekly unemployment checks end. Expect another $2 trillion to extend it. There is no free lunch. We all will end up paying for this abuse of Federal Reserve power through a collapse in the dollar as the United States marches towards hyperinflation. b. As of 2020 Credit card balances are at all-time highs, and absent any other relief, the recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will do little to slow down growth in total balances that borrowers carry month to month. The Fed printing more money because of covid will no make the balances and delinquencies and personal bankruptcies grow to new records c. People don't and won't have jobs to pay mortgages. Foreclosures will rise and easily eclipse what happened in last great recession. Housing prices will collapse d. Look at the state of pensions... everyone should expect pennies on their pensions and that their 401k are not OK e. The Federal Reserve is not our friend. It is an enemy of the people f. The bank stress tests were a joke. They never used high inflation in any stress tests. Not only will we have high inflation, we'll experience stagflation which is far more painful Solution: 1. Audit the fed. 2. End the fed 3. Back the dollar with sound money to force smaller government, adherence to budgets, end endless wars and reduce the power of the military industrial complex president Eisenhower warned us about many moons ago 4. US citizens (and all of mankind) should buy gold and silver to maintain their wealth and buy gold and silver miners to profit off of the stupidity and malfeasance of the federal reserve 5. Record in our history books that Keynesian economics failed and Hayek and Mises were right.. we do this so future generations won't repeat our foolishness Please don't tell people the Federal Reserve is a warm blanket of security because it is the furthest thing from it. Greenspan, bernanke, yellin and Jerome powell will in a relatively short amount of time destroy the financial world. I'll revisit this post in 2 years to see if I was right or wrong. Time will tell. Tick tock. Thank you for liking yet disagreeing with my radiator analogy. I bid you a good day.
@@philiscoolerthanu best rational response ever to Ramins utterly naive rationale. Everyone who knows, knows that the Fed are bleeding to populous dry. Not only bleeding them dry but enslaving them.
@@360mmspider Zimbabwe and Venezuela spring to mind. Can't happen in the 2020's ? I'm thinking that the dollar could drop to 50c worth of buying power for example . Then we all poor . Or we all work twice as hard . Or consume half as much . Tin foil hat on , it would almost look contrived , if it happened.
The key difference between the Great Depression and the Corona Depression is missing, to wit, this depression engulfs the economy of the entire planet, all at the same time, in all aspects and sectors of economic activity. It likewise includes the global climate crisis, another key difference from 1929. From a Chaos Theory perspective (the way I understand it --please correct me if I am wrong), when a closed dynamic system far from equilibrium is subject to overwhelming external pressure, the system ceases to function as such and enters a state of "chaos" , where "every outcome is possible, except the status quo ante". This is known as a bifurcation point: out of such state of chaos a greatly more evolved system, more resilient, more sophisticated and complex may arise, or else the old system finally colapses, its various subsystems, components and elements falling down the scale of evolution and into oblivion. In systems where human consciousness plays a role, however, we have a potential advantage in that we have the capability consciously to influence the outcome of the bifurcation process. In the end, the creative or destructive outcome will depend on whether or not we are caught "sleeping at the steering wheel" so to speak. If we were to choose not to rise up to the opportunity to make the deeply transformational changes that are so urgently required and instead tried to continue to shore up and restart the old system, no matter how determined we might be in such endeavour, our efforts will be for naught,
Very interesting theory, It's kind of how I've been thinking in that the amazing thing about humans and society is that both can be drastically altered with only a few ideas, if we can use the right ideas to shift our adaptability focus, we may have an out, wherever that may be scientifically, but if we don't look (Are asleep at the wheel) we are doomed to the en-tropic spiral...I'm a big Alan Moore fan and actually believe in his theory that language is a type of magic, a few sounds and gestures can alter perceptions of reality when understood in different ways and thus change the real actions of people in the world...it's a wonderfully terrible power...
Money is worth something, and it will continue be worth something as long as civil order is strong enough for governments to demand that exchange within their borders use their currency and that taxes must be paid in their currency. That being said, one unit of currency and can significantly decrease in value if the total quantity of said currency increases without a similar increase in GDP to accompany it. Also it's worth noting that this is nothing new, governments have had the ability to print (or forge) money for 1000s of years.
Great video! Just subscribed. One question. You did not account for the impact of technology, IMO. How much of the stock market's earnings comes from technology, and how much of the unemployment rate hit technology workers (they can work from home) and much of the sales of these companies do not need to be done in brick n mortar. We saw how tech hold the market recently, would this change something in your comparison with the 1930s? Thanks in advance.
Hi Diogo that's an interesting point. In 1929 the exciting new technology was radios. There's always some investment fad, and the largest companies in 1929 were General Motors, General Electric, US Steel, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Union Carbide & Carbon and Anaconda Copper. So it was a cars/electronics/metals theme. But I guess the strength of tech companies through this crisis bears out your point. But the concentration of earnings growth in tech was already the case in Q4 2019 before the crisis www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/outside-of-the-big-5-tech-companies-earnings-growth-is-zero.html Thanks, Ramin.
I remember a lot of this grand economic theory back in 2011 and 2014 and 2016 and 2018 when people predicted all kinds of recessions and depressions... It’s possible. So I hedge with some gold (about 3 to 5%). But that’s it. Nobody can consistently predicted these things - it’s the sum total economic behaviour of billions of people.
if we are not likely to get a banking crisis then why is it the fed has been bailing out the overnight fund since last september? Does that not say the system is failing?
My understanding then is due to a lack of leverage used and the policy response, we are not heading into a depression; however, this increase in debt if put on the shoulders of the common man were to occur could put us into one. In other words, this could be the beginning of a bubble, not the winding down of one
I think you should have compared the personal, corporate, and government debt levels going into the crises. And, the relative size of the government to GDP.
So, in short we were on the way to a new great depression and corona saved us from much worse, pulling people from clouds back down to earth. However, now we are way overplaying with loads of money, despite the fact that it was clear before that large amount of debt was correlated with productivity decline. So, in short we aren't even capable of better financial decisions than is nature by accident. :)
If the American Digital Dollar Project becomes law, and everyone has a digital dollar account at the Fed (with negative interest, direct stimulus, programmable money etc) what do all the retail banks do? Do we see most of the retail banks go into bank failure? Do all the retail banks get merged by the Fed System?
great video. i do not think i have seen a video with such a positive thumbs up to down ratio. I wonder about the accelerated conditions nowadays, demand does not lag supply due to communication and logistics advancements. so a recovery can happen in months instead of years. But then again i was not around for the great depression.
Very well done and clear explanation but I am left waiting for the punch line .... where exactly are we ? Are we on the brink of the worst depression since the word was invented or will it be a fantastic equity buyng opportunity or a damp squib ? Will I lose all my investments, my house, my car and my lively hood and end up on the street or make a ton of cash on the great post crisis bounce ?
You're asking for information that no one knows. There is no punch line, you need to decide that for yourself based on the information provided. Personally I think this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better and therefore I would prepare for that eventuality. This economic downturn could last 4 years imo.
The Roaring 20's was the result of a policy response to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic though. There's plenty of leverage in the system from zero rates and trading apps. The Great Depression employment numbers didn't include goverment workers. We no longer count discouraged/economically inactive workers as unemployed. There won't be any growth until we restore capitalism. Capitalism ended in 08 when they replacing savers capital with QE. What we have now is a centrally planned economy!
At around 8:20 you point out a forecast recovery in earnings for Q3 2020. You say there is expected 35.8% recovery but the graph states it's for Q1 2021 not Q3 2020. Am I reading this wrong?
The imports coming from other supposedly “higher cost countries” rather than China is actually a good thing. It’s not going to change the US situation much but it makes the supply chain much stronger and takes power away from the CCP. Diversification of trade is always better and so-called “free-trade” deals are never equal trade deals so they harm the economy greatly. Bring back some manufacturing and have some in a diverse group of other nations and trade equally; that is the path to growth.
Manufacturing will always seek lower costs, and the highest costs are labour. Unless Americans agree to work for the same price as Chinese, Vietnamese or Bangladeshies, then manufacturing won't return to the US.
all this debt, let it be private or nationalised, will not lead to collapse of equity prices. not in d immediate term dat is... BUT it will lead to nations devalueing their currency to make it seems like VALUATIONs are going up. and the average ppl will not notice that the nation is going thru a recession or depression. This however, will not save ALL nation. some country will have their currency devalue soo much that it affect the average ppl livelihood. I believe more advanced economy will have it soft, while EM like my country will be at risk.
agree, sadly. they're stuck now, however, it didn't have to be this way. some players decided to buy politicians so they could rig things created this mess - at least for most of us
Is this a rhetorical question Ramin? We've been walking through the greatest depression ever, since September 2019. All this fluff in the markets has no real value. OK if you're a day trader, otherwise youre being hung out to dry by the pros. Spend more time in Costa.
It didn't have to be this way. 1) Without a pandemic, there was hope. 2) Without so much debt... probably not. 3) If there weren't too many Stock buybacks, and firms used boom-time profits to strengthen their financial health... they'd have been more resilient. 4) Financial inequality may cause unrest as climate stress adds increasing pressure. So, time to review the list of 7 deadly sins I guess and amend a few thing at scale.
The pandamic just dit speed up this bubble. The pandamic is not the reason. Its Nixon with his great idea to unlease the dollar from gold. Now we have no anker. And the history has learned us thats were we go wrong. We print and print paper shit money. Without any anker. Thats were we go wrong we dont learn from our histroy we think we can smart it out. The dollar will fail. And an other powerful country will take over. Its china or something or some other country. But the dollar is done. There will be an other force to stepp in The us will lose its power. Now or in the future it can take an otther 20 years but i doubt that. Hope you have a garden so you can plant your own food.
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Great video again, so happy my friend recommended you channel! Any upcoming videos on Bitcoin and if has any place in a portfolio?
Well only major difference I see is that works governments have been working together in the modern global economy another hundred years. Another hundred years of experience with quantitative easy, helicopter $ & even currency recetting. The US isn't the only country experience low growth high debt. Who knows how the world order will use the tools they have to pull the world out of it.
Hey, this has already TRANSCENDED the Great Depression. If anything, this could potentially become something that will be devastating and will change the fate of America forever -- FOR THE WORSE.
And not for the better...
It is pre planned so serve humanity insted of serve govt
Depression is putting it lightly! This is the fall of the Roman empire!!! All over again.
The "Roman Empire" never existed !
Dr Anatoly Fomenko, "History: Fiction or Science?".
This is the fall of Western Civilization, as we had known it, almost just like what happened to Rome.
Uh, this isn't really a fall of anything...
To be fair, Rome took around 200 years to fully fall apart. Even if you multiply the speed 10 fold due to the speed of information, its still 20 years. Ironically this is roughly how long it took Venezuela to go from prosperity to poverty.
I wonder what our ancestors would say if they looked at what is happening in the countries to which they dedicated their lives and gave the lives of their sons.
This UA-cam video should have had at least 1 million views ! So relevant so current !
Thank you - I am glad you think so Carlos
I am not an economist or analyst or ever showed any real interest in this subject. I must say I could listen to you all day. I find your information very positive as it is so explicit and factual. I note from your video that the world is basically in the same boat and my anxiety has definitely improved and I can be less critical of the government of the country in which I live. Thank you. I will make it my business to listen to your views on the world economies.
Another clear and concise video. Thank you Ramin.
Hi Dan, thank you! Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft it was an interesting video. 👍
Wow, thanks for putting so much time into this!
My pleasure Richard - I am glad you enjoyed it.
Market low during post WW1 recession: end of August 1921
Market high in 1929: end of August 1929.
Average annual return on US market, with dividends reinvested upon payment = 23%.
Market low after GFC: March 9, 2009
Most recent all time high: February 19, 2020
Average annual return on US market, with dividends reinvested upon payment = 16.7% As per Wilshire 5000 with dividends reinvested.
The Big Short 2 - coming to theaters near you!
Not so fast. The theaters are still closed in many places.
I think the real drop in people’s wealth will happen very quickly , currency creation has already eroded wealth but nobody has noticed yet , stock market trouble always seems to happen in the autumn and there seems to be lots of bad news that will all come together then
You will wake up one morning and realise you are not nearly as well of as you thought you were the day before and there will be no easy way to get your wealth back , and that will be the start of the depression
Philip Hall I think the depression started before 2008.
I agree..bible tells me so. Wake up broke
My forecast is a technical analysis of the mind-boggling broadening top formation on monthly view charts. What happened in March was a gyration WITHIN the top formation. That's how colossal the chart pattern is.
The next gyration could occur in late 2020, and - even if it stays within the humungous horn - seems likely to plunge somewhat lower than March.
That October or November shakeout of around 10,000 Dow (about 40%) is STILL the prelude, because price action still remains in the broadening top.
Harder to be specific on timing out from there; but there may or may not be a Christmas or early 2021 bear rally.
The final stage is prices falling out of the chart pattern as a "measured move" of approximately the full amplitude of the horn... from the lower lip of the horn... which is basically down to gravel and sticks with the Dow down as much as 20,000 points (as an intra-day level on the worst day); that's a 70% tumble from its post-covid bounce to 27,500, give or take.
If I'm right, the gut-wrenching completion of the chart pattern may play out over mid- to late-2021, or into 2022, with the bottom at either Dow 12,000 or 8,000. That lower number is the very structural support level established by the GFC.
This 2 stage crash - say, October 2020, followed by a further, deeper slump maybe a year after that - would mirror the 1929/1930 Great Depression crash in a general sense.
I could be wrong and will look a fool. But there is no denying the giant broadening top on a monthly view of, say, the SP500 to see the clearest view of it. If it doesn't jump out at you, try compressing the time axis with your chart tools. It has been forming since November 2017, so it is already very large and mature; and it only remains to see on which gyration it will tumble out of the horn. And it has already had enough gyrations to be "at full term".
BTW, I am self-taught and have a pretty poor record of investing.
We’ve been in one since 2009
Frankly 2001...
Omg since the 90s!! The WTC, the Gulf War, the chase for Mass Weapons of Destruction, were horrible ditch efforts to funnel money into this failed economy.
World economy on life support .
I'm 24 & looking to put down a deposit on a house within ~1-2 years, and so this super-rally has been rather worrying for me. Although I've made gains by buying the dip (in a new Vanguard SIPP + existing HL account), and my previous HL index trackers regained much of their value from before the first drop, I'm starting to get worried about just how "greedy" the market appears...
Just this morning, a few hours before this video, I've switched almost all of my LISA and S&S ISA equity (~100%) to UK and US (hedged) treasuries - capital preservation is key for me for the immediate future - don't want to risk losing a big chunk of my first-house deposit to a second dip...
I'd rather keep aggressively buying global equity in my SIPP (target retirement in/around 2060) and keep my LISAs & easy access HL S&S ISA in cash and safe treasuries for the time being...
Cheers for another great video Ramin
When I think back to when I was 24... I am now retried, the important thing was to be consistent in saving for retirement and ensuring I was in a good and secure job. I bought a house using a mortgage when interest rates were at 15% and I nearly starved ensuring that I paid the monthly mortgage without missing one but it was worth it. I think the message I am trying to give is that at 24 you have to take the long game view. Market crashes, house price crashes, pandemics, etc... are blips along the way. Suddenly selling and buying like a day trader for a long term goal is likely to leave you worse off unless you are a real fortune teller. When I did try to do that I usually missed the peaks and the troughs so in other words bought and sold exactly at the wrong times. I then realised that the very rich manipulate the markets to suck the assets from the gullible, they have the flexibility and cash to gamble, I did not.
I don't envy being young and in this financial situation. I bought my first house after turning 22 yrs old in 1981 making $3.50/hr US.
You're much more advanced and forward looking than me, still. Owning where I live and letting the real estate do the work was a good move.
I owned 4 houses for a bit but landlording sucks.
IMHO: Real estate prices will lower- and I'm stacking physical gold to a much higher % as a store of wealth, rather than the Ponzi-ish equities game.
In my case, I'm retiring early and getting what I can out of various pensions and 401K while keeping a couple as I continue to work as long as possible or until serious inflation hits - at that point we'll move to a cheaper country with low risk of social strife. - just my .02, best of luck to you.
@@gwal93 Oh I understand - I've never sold assets until now - its just that my "investment horizon" is now
@@billytheweasel Indeed, it's a bit bonkers - I'm still going to be saving heavily into my SIPP (UK self-invested personal pension - kind of like a 401k) so that I can hopefully retire early too... I just don't want my "house deposit" nest egg to evaporate should a serious recession / depression take place over the next
Sounds well thought out.
Risk/Reward not good for equities at this point.
Like a thief in the night.......alli know. God bless
No jobs with student loan debt, doomed
Stock prices fell in later years in the 1930's because widespread bank speculation wiped out savings of millions of depositors. Without depositor cash, there was no fuel to invest in stock markets. Without a buyer of last resort stocks fell sharply. At that time depositors had very little exposure to equities. Today the FED has become the buyer of last resort so markets will not collapse as it did it the 1930's. The current FED has set a floor as to how low stock prices can fall. There will be a coming depression as many of the laid off workers will not have the required skills necessary to re-enter the workforce. However, with FED help, financial markets will still head towards record levels.
we are headed for an ultra mega depression.
COVID19 just sped it up. But also gave a great excuse for money printer to go burrr hardcore. But the way they're doing it, probably won't work.
All this talk about a coming depression is making ME damn depressed...
This is really about finally dealing with all the "can kicking" that has been going on for the last 50 years, the lies and manipulation in every corner of the financial markets, as well as the uneven accumulation of new wealth between the rich/upper and mid/lower classes. This happens throughout history over and over again. Just try and be as ready as you can, I personally have become a prepper of late and have one foot out of the system now. Get a plan B quick, and maybe a plan C and D just in case shtf
@@jmitterii2 Now they have an excuse for the collapse.
@@BlueGoat682 This is the reality...For many,this is already a Great Depression..
For some it’s a recession.
For some great riches have come to them ...
No need to be depressed, look at which circle your in and like any game ,make your best move .
I really find this a very entertaining challenge to figure out my next move to survive...
It’s all in how you view anything that will determine your personal outcome..
I have drawn my lines , that puts me in control of my life ..
I will live and die by them ..
All that matters is good soils clean water and air and relative stable climate , so were heading for way worse than `great depression` unless you can eat shares.
Those things do come first. You aren't going to live long without good soil, clean air and water and a stable climate. A global depression just might be the solution for the environmental issues and many other problems as well. But it didn't have to be a choice. We could have had a thriving economy AND all those other things. "Conservatives" are bat sh(& crazy. I'm guessing that by now, most people have figured that out. Hopefully, it isn't too late.
I hope the handful of families that say they own the Federal Reserve will be okay through all of this
Yeah, poor guys.
Rmg Rmg lol I needed a laugh after reading the doom and gloom. ;-)
It’s a depression for sure. Ray Dalio has an excellent analysis of what is going on. The debt supercycle has run its course and now we have to pay the piper. Huge unfounded liabilities in the US for sure.
No more pensions by the end of this decade if not much sooner... invest in real wealth, gold/silver
The message is don't worry in the short term because we have socialism for the rich now which was not there in 1929 the question is how long will it last.
The last depression happened in very different times, in this depression everybody is very heavely armed...
Yeah this time only people in free states are armed. The occupied territories of NY and California will just have to let the mob rule.
@MRRoger it is rather amusing.
Maybe in the US but not were i live. And im glad of that. Like to see the news when the US is killing eachother because of aal the guns they have.
@@lalarebelse5985 you should educate yourself on violent crime vs gun control. Guns actually make us safer, but the news has an agenda.
MRRoger changing their mind doesn’t make them a hypocrite, it makes them open minded
I think we've been in a depression for the last decade or so.
correction: when u don't have an income.
I think this is what we need for the new system to change the old one
Excellent
Thank you so much 😀
Another great video! Really good stuff thanks!
Hi UK Finance with Lee Williams thanks! Ramin.
Great comparison and summary .
So based on that we have ....
near enough zero interest rates therefore no return on bank deposits
inflated stock markets looking to correct
and bond markets with negative yields ???
If you sit on cash you're at best getting no return at worst possibly missing out .
Gold ? ...but things can get volatile in that market .
What to do !!!???
@@SeekingAlfalfa isn't a dividen a percentage of the stock price?
Ahhhh real estate, I own 16 single family rentals myself. 6 of them all paid for. I love mailbox money
Innovative stocks that are set to form the nwo.
Consumer staples.
Gold/silver.
Crypto if you believe.
Crypto is the answer. Digital revolution is coming and crypto debit cards are everywhere already. PayPal is also going to accept crypto soon. There is not enough gold in the world
This sounds like conventional wisdom rather than an exposition on what's really going on relative to what was going on during the period of the Great Depression.
Hi veritasfiles what aspects of the Great Depression do you think I should have compared with the current situation? Thanks, Ramin.
I understand you have a lot of viewers from the US, but please don't forget the UK with your graphs and data!
I’m 18 unemployed and am taking a gap year before uni. It would cost me around £26000 for my course and with covid I’m not risking the debt. I have talked to many about what to do yet get a mixed response. I had uni offers and while the qualifications may lead to solid employment; the depression may cause those companies to liquidate and therefore no employment even with a degree. I’m so confused about the future (who isn’t) but like everyone else I just want a solid wage as it’s going to be my generation that will take the full force.
loving the content - more of this!
I am glad you enjoyed it Sanjay Kapoor.
One factor that's different this time around is the intervention of FED to prop up the market
No. The world is going to bloom and be blessed more than ever for they begin to see what and who truly matters in life.
I try to hope so!
Materialism has destroyed the earth we depend on.
If electricity goes off for a few wks.....perhaps Pete will reset???
But I doubt it.
The analysis starts at the wrong point. The biggest difference between the economies of the Roaring Twenties and today is the TYPE of currencies in circulation. The Fed was created in 1913 and the Roaring Twenties were fueled by the newly created and inflationary Federal Reserve Notes which were, at that time, real promissory notes redeemable for REAL dollars (sic. silver one ounce coins) and were limited in supply. Both the promissory notes and the real silver dollars were in circulation and part of the money supply. The percentage of silver dollars in circulation did not vanish into thin air and acted as a floor to the price collapse of '29 caused by the pullback on the issuance of Federal Reserve Notes.
The current economy is running 100% on Federal Reserve Notes which are fraudulent as they are not redeemable for anything (and thus are "promises" to pay nothing). There is no floor to the current downturn EXCEPT the injection of even more fake money (which merely accelerates the race to a currency collapse)because there is no alternative money to the Federal Reserve Notes. Another major difference is the large proportion (99%) of Federal Reserve Notes that exist only as digital entries in computer ledgers. Digital "money" can be (and is) created at lightning speed with a mouseclick (it takes more time to create paper money and to get it injected into the economy than digital "money"). The Federal Reserve of 1913 was limited in the amount of currency it could create by the fact it was all redeemable in real silver while today's Fed can (and does) create and infinite supply of digital "money" and can get it injected into the economy at lightning speeds.
The present system can sustain itself for as long as the world believes in the delusion and utter lunacy that "money" can be worthless and created to infinite amounts. When the delusion vanishes, however, all the world's fake monies will also vanish. Unlike '29 when they still had a sizable percentage of real money in circulation, the collapse of the current fake money will leave the economy with NO money at all.
Great comment! I’ve noticed the Fed is limiting coins to banks, retail is struggling to get enough.
The great transition.
Burning the Field by Marc F. Brocato 2006
The American Cash Cow - ALL BULLS OUT.
Back in the old days, before fencing had subdivided and cordoned off the once opened areas of land throughout the south, the farmers and cattlemen of the day would burn off the fields and woodlands. During the summer, vegetation in the forms of grasses, briers, and various shrubs would grow in the open fields and meadows. These plants were a source of nutrition for livestock and a major food supply for the herds which where allowed to roam freely. In the fall of the year, winter would set in and the summer growth cycle would end. With the onset of cold winter weather, the grasses and other vegetation would die, leaving the landscape lifeless and brown. The purpose of burning the woods were twofold. First, the fire had a cleansing effect by clearing the ground of useless and unwanted debris. Secondly, nutrients where returned to the soil, making them available for the next succession of growth. One could look north and south, east and west, and see the numerous columns of smoke rising into the sky.
The yearly roundup took place in the fall, at which time the cattle were gathered together. The ranchers collected their ( cash ) cows, some were sold at auction and others where put in places of safe keeping (Euro’s, Swiss franks, Yen, and gold.... ). Not until all the cattle where herded together and relocated were the fields and woods set on fire. This was the economic cycle that reoccurred year after year, a necessary evil of the day and was eventually outlawed.. Thousands of independent ranchers would be replaced by the large cooperate cattle companies. And so it is with food and many other good and services today, from the hands of the thousands who established the market, whatever that market might be, into the hands of the few who now control it. But that’s not the end of this story, it’s far from over. Apply these same principles and methods to the national and global economy. It appears as if the industrialists and financiers who control the economies of the world have been moving their cash cows out of the U.S. .for a long time in advance of a controlled burn or just maybe wildfire. The crash of the ‘30's was such an action, however, every major market on the face of the earth will be effected this go round. A well planned choreography of events will reshape the global economy in ways which the average individual cannot comprehend. When the fires are out and the smoke clears, the result will be an empty shell of a country, with an economic landscape barren and ready for the next season of growth.
Enjoy your freedom and rights, savor them as you would your favorite meal. Life in the United States and the entire civilized world shall soon go through quiet a transition. Similar circumstances have overtaken unsuspecting populations in the past, but never the entire world, as it will this time. What shall be used as the form of ignition? Will it be a manipulated economic disaster, or some fabricated terrorist act. Perhaps a bonafide and unexpected act of God that was not a part of man’s planning. Maybe those in Washington will legislate the country out of existence by executive order, it’s amusing to think a thing like that is possible. Imagine, a economic system with no exchange rate, a global unit of currency. One currency and one governing authority.
The surest way to prevent seditions is to take away the matter of them; for if there be fuel prepared, it is hard to tell whence the spark shall come that shall set it on fire. - Bacon.
Never underestimate the power of The Fed/bank of England.
Billy Buttlord the federal reserve would cause a dollar collapse that would force the central banks to increase interest rate.
That should be on a T-shirt
central banks have absolute NO economic power. real economy and human productivity (real supply & demand) has. the higher amount of new money you put into economy - the higher inflation and destruction of your own currency will occur. economy strength is absolutely not about amount of money you inject into financial markets. those are two different things.
@Thomas Headley you are right, maybe i wasn't clear. I've just wanted to point that false believe central banks can save collapsing economy any time they want to. for sure they can heavily expand economic decay by extreme monetary policies, but not too long. and of course they can damage the economy easily. but they can't fight with nature and reverse debt crisis..
if printing money solves a recession, why isn't it been done before?
Oh wait it has been done multiple times by multiple country and it has never worked before
Once you quoted Paul Krugman, I tapped out.
Hi KTMs I like Paul Krugman, he usually has something interesting to say even if I don't agree with him. Thanks, Ramin.
At 8:25 I think the dates for the forecasts slid off... These are probably quarters 1, 2, 3 4 for 2020 and 2021 whereas it says Q1, Q4, Q1, Q4.
But a really nice video.
Looking back at the 1920s what asset classes did well and what asset classes suffered severely. I think I read that government bonds did very well. what about Gold?
Look in to the future how are different asset classes likely to perform under several different scenarios. Say bounce back to growth, 1-2 year recession, 3-5 depression.
What leason can we learn for developing a balanced portfolio for the 2020s.
In the 1920 there was the gold standard, you could change money into the equivalent gold. So bonds if paid were basically equivalent to gold
I will support. Thank you for the lesson!
I am glad it was helpful Anjy Munroe.
Are we headed? We're already in the beginnings and a year from now we will be full blown...
Agreed
We're not headed for a Great Depression, we're already in one and have been in one since the 07-08 crises.
The definition of great depression is when you don't have a job.
@Nomen Nesceo well said. A job is a trap if you hate it.
A depression is when NOBODY has a job.
@Nomen Nesceo This depression is going to be preceded by hyperinflation. Your money will be worthless. Fat Donnie increased the national debt from 2 trillion dollars to 12 trillion (correct me if that figure is incorrect) overnight. And he isn't finished yet. He's trying to get re-elected by bribing voters. All will be in the same damn boat.
and need one.
Hi, what are your thoughts on the Vanguard SIPP? I am thinking about transferring my pension and wondered if you had any reviews on it?
The interview starts with the narrator talking in front of a radiator. Radiators are heat exchangers used to transfer thermal energy from one medium to another for the purpose of cooling and heating. I guess the Fed has convinced most people that it acts like a radiator for the economy. If markets are overheating they will increase rates and cool markets off. If the markets enter a recession they lower rates to heat the economy up. But we are about to learn the Fed doesn't effectively monitor and heal economies but rather they destroy economies over time. After the coming depression blooms the public will loose faith in the fed and the dollar. Gold will skyrocket as people panic. It is inevitable. Our beautiful country has been sold for cheap goods. Our leaders have taken pieces of silver to enrich themselves and impoverish us all. Remember them when you're bankrupt and hungry. Never forget.
Recession were more frequent, deeper and last longer when on the gold standard. There is a need for central banks and fiat money has not been so bad. There's still alot of room for improvement.
Hi Phil H as a physicist I like your heat analogy. But I don't agree. If you (a) have a job (b) have a credit card (c) have a mortgage (d) have a pension (e) buy goods and services in US dollars then you have the Fed to thank for the fact that those markets are not in a much more perilous state. You don't have to listen to many speeches by Powell or other Fed officials to hear that they are utterly committed to helping the real economy. If you're looking for the Bad Guys you won't find many of them at the Fed. Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft
a. 40 million don't have jobs. The CARES printed $2 trillion to effectively monetize the debt. July 31st the $600 weekly unemployment checks end. Expect another $2 trillion to extend it. There is no free lunch. We all will end up paying for this abuse of Federal Reserve power through a collapse in the dollar as the United States marches towards hyperinflation.
b. As of 2020 Credit card balances are at all-time highs, and absent any other relief, the recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will do little to slow down growth in total balances that borrowers carry month to month. The Fed printing more money because of covid will no make the balances and delinquencies and personal bankruptcies grow to new records
c. People don't and won't have jobs to pay mortgages. Foreclosures will rise and easily eclipse what happened in last great recession. Housing prices will collapse
d. Look at the state of pensions... everyone should expect pennies on their pensions and that their 401k are not OK
e. The Federal Reserve is not our friend. It is an enemy of the people
f. The bank stress tests were a joke. They never used high inflation in any stress tests. Not only will we have high inflation, we'll experience stagflation which is far more painful
Solution:
1. Audit the fed.
2. End the fed
3. Back the dollar with sound money to force smaller government, adherence to budgets, end endless wars and reduce the power of the military industrial complex president Eisenhower warned us about many moons ago
4. US citizens (and all of mankind) should buy gold and silver to maintain their wealth and buy gold and silver miners to profit off of the stupidity and malfeasance of the federal reserve
5. Record in our history books that Keynesian economics failed and Hayek and Mises were right.. we do this so future generations won't repeat our foolishness
Please don't tell people the Federal Reserve is a warm blanket of security because it is the furthest thing from it. Greenspan, bernanke, yellin and Jerome powell will in a relatively short amount of time destroy the financial world.
I'll revisit this post in 2 years to see if I was right or wrong. Time will tell. Tick tock.
Thank you for liking yet disagreeing with my radiator analogy. I bid you a good day.
@@philiscoolerthanu Inflationary Depression on its way.
@@philiscoolerthanu best rational response ever to Ramins utterly naive rationale. Everyone who knows, knows that the Fed are bleeding to populous dry. Not only bleeding them dry but enslaving them.
I can't see a way out of this , as the whole financial system has been bent out of shape.
Lol..think of it as a system reboot.
The trend has been the same for more than 10 years. Only the numbers have gotten bigger.
@@primaryrage The trouble i see coming , the pound / euro /dollar in your pocket might be rendered pretty worthless .
rob wulz
Ctrl + Alt + Delete
@@360mmspider Zimbabwe and Venezuela spring to mind. Can't happen in the 2020's ? I'm thinking that the dollar could drop to 50c worth of buying power for example . Then we all poor . Or we all work twice as hard . Or consume half as much . Tin foil hat on , it would almost look contrived , if it happened.
Great comparison Ramin.
Thank you Andrew. Glad you enjoyed it.
The key difference between the Great Depression and the Corona Depression is missing, to wit, this depression engulfs the economy of the entire planet, all at the same time, in all aspects and sectors of economic activity. It likewise includes the global climate crisis, another key difference from 1929. From a Chaos Theory perspective (the way I understand it --please correct me if I am wrong), when a closed dynamic system far from equilibrium is subject to overwhelming external pressure, the system ceases to function as such and enters a state of "chaos" , where "every outcome is possible, except the status quo ante". This is known as a bifurcation point: out of such state of chaos a greatly more evolved system, more resilient, more sophisticated and complex may arise, or else the old system finally colapses, its various subsystems, components and elements falling down the scale of evolution and into oblivion. In systems where human consciousness plays a role, however, we have a potential advantage in that we have the capability consciously to influence the outcome of the bifurcation process. In the end, the creative or destructive outcome will depend on whether or not we are caught "sleeping at the steering wheel" so to speak. If we were to choose not to rise up to the opportunity to make the deeply transformational changes that are so urgently required and instead tried to continue to shore up and restart the old system, no matter how determined we might be in such endeavour, our efforts will be for naught,
Very interesting theory, It's kind of how I've been thinking in that the amazing thing about humans and society is that both can be drastically altered with only a few ideas, if we can use the right ideas to shift our adaptability focus, we may have an out, wherever that may be scientifically, but if we don't look (Are asleep at the wheel) we are doomed to the en-tropic spiral...I'm a big Alan Moore fan and actually believe in his theory that language is a type of magic, a few sounds and gestures can alter perceptions of reality when understood in different ways and thus change the real actions of people in the world...it's a wonderfully terrible power...
Yes this is the Second Great Depression
Thanks for the video
Your welcome Pedro Montano.
this is gold, thank you !
Your very welcome DayDreamer Forex. I am glad it was helpful.
As so as stimulus is gone we are in a depression!
It's going to be a wild ride!
The fact they can print money begs the question, ""what is money worth?"
Future generations will find out... We won't be around !!!
money will have value as long as it is the only way to pay your taxes ;)
Money is worth something, and it will continue be worth something as long as civil order is strong enough for governments to demand that exchange within their borders use their currency and that taxes must be paid in their currency. That being said, one unit of currency and can significantly decrease in value if the total quantity of said currency increases without a similar increase in GDP to accompany it. Also it's worth noting that this is nothing new, governments have had the ability to print (or forge) money for 1000s of years.
This is not enter into an depression, it is the end of an empire,
Yes we are heading for a depression
While everybody is Zigging, I'm Zagging.
Observe the masses and do completely the opposite!
We're in it
Excellent content! This channel deserves way more subscribers!👍
I appreciate that thank you Elaine Lys
Great video! Just subscribed. One question. You did not account for the impact of technology, IMO.
How much of the stock market's earnings comes from technology, and how much of the unemployment rate hit technology workers (they can work from home) and much of the sales of these companies do not need to be done in brick n mortar. We saw how tech hold the market recently, would this change something in your comparison with the 1930s? Thanks in advance.
Hi Diogo that's an interesting point. In 1929 the exciting new technology was radios. There's always some investment fad, and the largest companies in 1929 were General Motors, General Electric, US Steel, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Union Carbide & Carbon and Anaconda Copper. So it was a cars/electronics/metals theme. But I guess the strength of tech companies through this crisis bears out your point. But the concentration of earnings growth in tech was already the case in Q4 2019 before the crisis www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/outside-of-the-big-5-tech-companies-earnings-growth-is-zero.html Thanks, Ramin.
I remember a lot of this grand economic theory back in 2011 and 2014 and 2016 and 2018 when people predicted all kinds of recessions and depressions...
It’s possible. So I hedge with some gold (about 3 to 5%). But that’s it. Nobody can consistently predicted these things - it’s the sum total economic behaviour of billions of people.
The big difference this time is they have pumped 6 trillion dollars into the stock market.
if we are not likely to get a banking crisis then why is it the fed has been bailing out the overnight fund since last september? Does that not say the system is failing?
Great info / charts 👍 thank you
My pleasure - I am glad you enjoyed it B potter.
My understanding then is due to a lack of leverage used and the policy response, we are not heading into a depression; however, this increase in debt if put on the shoulders of the common man were to occur could put us into one. In other words, this could be the beginning of a bubble, not the winding down of one
Great question. Did they ask the same question in 1931?
I think you should have compared the personal, corporate, and government debt levels going into the crises. And, the relative size of the government to GDP.
So, in short we were on the way to a new great depression and corona saved us from much worse, pulling people from clouds back down to earth. However, now we are way overplaying with loads of money, despite the fact that it was clear before that large amount of debt was correlated with productivity decline. So, in short we aren't even capable of better financial decisions than is nature by accident. :)
If not economically.... emorally
If the American Digital Dollar Project becomes law, and everyone has a digital dollar account at the Fed (with negative interest, direct stimulus, programmable money etc) what do all the retail banks do? Do we see most of the retail banks go into bank failure? Do all the retail banks get merged by the Fed System?
great video. i do not think i have seen a video with such a positive thumbs up to down ratio.
I wonder about the accelerated conditions nowadays, demand does not lag supply due to communication and logistics advancements. so a recovery can happen in months instead of years. But then again i was not around for the great depression.
Very well done and clear explanation but I am left waiting for the punch line .... where exactly are we ? Are we on the brink of the worst depression since the word was invented or will it be a fantastic equity buyng opportunity or a damp squib ? Will I lose all my investments, my house, my car and my lively hood and end up on the street or make a ton of cash on the great post crisis bounce ?
Could go either way depend on what happen next as we come out of lock down.
You're asking for information that no one knows. There is no punch line, you need to decide that for yourself based on the information provided.
Personally I think this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better and therefore I would prepare for that eventuality. This economic downturn could last 4 years imo.
Already in a Depression!!
MIke M everyone knows we are in one. We all know this isn’t going away any time soon
@@360mmspider australia is confirmed, everyone else will suggest they are soon, USA having a drop of 45% in gdp by last 2 months figures
One big difference between now and the depression. Mr. Money Printer JPow and the Central Bank....
Thank you.
Your welcome Andrew - I am glad you enjoyed it.
I hope it is
Can you compare current situation with something like stagflation? I am worried about trillions of printed dollars in several months
Limits to Growth is a new condition that renders our old systems incompetent.
Only thing I strongly disagree with is “this downturn was caused by pandemic”.
This is false.
The Roaring 20's was the result of a policy response to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic though. There's plenty of leverage in the system from zero rates and trading apps. The Great Depression employment numbers didn't include goverment workers. We no longer count discouraged/economically inactive workers as unemployed. There won't be any growth until we restore capitalism. Capitalism ended in 08 when they replacing savers capital with QE. What we have now is a centrally planned economy!
Capitalism ended in 1971 when we came off the Gold standard
At around 8:20 you point out a forecast recovery in earnings for Q3 2020. You say there is expected 35.8% recovery but the graph states it's for Q1 2021 not Q3 2020. Am I reading this wrong?
The imports coming from other supposedly “higher cost countries” rather than China is actually a good thing. It’s not going to change the US situation much but it makes the supply chain much stronger and takes power away from the CCP. Diversification of trade is always better and so-called “free-trade” deals are never equal trade deals so they harm the economy greatly. Bring back some manufacturing and have some in a diverse group of other nations and trade equally; that is the path to growth.
Manufacturing will always seek lower costs, and the highest costs are labour. Unless Americans agree to work for the same price as Chinese, Vietnamese or Bangladeshies, then manufacturing won't return to the US.
What ETF would be good as a hedge in case of a second crash ? Bonds and Gold ?
Cloud.
Consumer staples.
Gold/silver.
Crypto if you believe.
DR BRICK Buy gold and silver and keep it at home or another safe place.
DR BRICK
Precious metals.
And I think you mean “when things crash”, not “if”...
If you don’t hold it you don’t own it
Yes
More I learn about the current economic scenario, more I want to buy gold
Knew all of this (mostly), but excellent presentation of the underlying facts with charts.
Glad you enjoyed it Mike Hardwicke.
all this debt, let it be private or nationalised, will not lead to collapse of equity prices. not in d immediate term dat is... BUT it will lead to nations devalueing their currency to make it seems like VALUATIONs are going up. and the average ppl will not notice that the nation is going thru a recession or depression.
This however, will not save ALL nation. some country will have their currency devalue soo much that it affect the average ppl livelihood. I believe more advanced economy will have it soft, while EM like my country will be at risk.
We have obviously learnt the lessons from the last depression. No doubt we will learn lessons from the current one that is starting now.
Depressed are those who are most materialist .
We the ordinary people have been in economic depression since 2008.
Yes, but we now have quantitative easing.....which may just go down in history as the collapse of capitalism.
that would be bad for the people suffering but to me it would be my favorite moment on history
just say hell yes
The lost decade 18years of “0”growth
And maybe the lost century
Not that it matters, but a decade is 10 years. It's 1.8 decades.
Everyone hating on the federal reserve until there's a run on the banks 😁
agree, sadly. they're stuck now, however, it didn't have to be this way.
some players decided to buy politicians so they could rig things created this mess - at least for most of us
Is this a rhetorical question Ramin?
We've been walking through the greatest depression ever, since September 2019. All this fluff in the markets has no real value. OK if you're a day trader, otherwise youre being hung out to dry by the pros. Spend more time in Costa.
This economy ain’t coming back from in couple years it’s goin to be global economy crash it’s goin to take decades to get back to work
Should I hold cash or invest in stock ?Please help as I can't get an answer to this question.
You should leave the Internet entirely
Neither. Buy food necessities.
Would this be a bad time to start a vanguard lifestrategy 80?
@CountChocula30 👍👍
CountChocula30
😂
It didn't have to be this way. 1) Without a pandemic, there was hope.
2) Without so much debt... probably not.
3) If there weren't too many Stock buybacks, and firms used boom-time profits to strengthen their financial health... they'd have been more resilient.
4) Financial inequality may cause unrest as climate stress adds increasing pressure.
So, time to review the list of 7 deadly sins I guess and amend a few thing at scale.
Human greed is baked into the system. Not a lot you can do about it.
The pandamic just dit speed up this bubble. The pandamic is not the reason. Its Nixon with his great idea to unlease the dollar from gold. Now we have no anker. And the history has learned us thats were we go wrong. We print and print paper shit money. Without any anker. Thats were we go wrong we dont learn from our histroy we think we can smart it out. The dollar will fail. And an other powerful country will take over. Its china or something or some other country. But the dollar is done. There will be an other force to stepp in The us will lose its power. Now or in the future it can take an otther 20 years but i doubt that. Hope you have a garden so you can plant your own food.
Everyone say this time is different. Baloney
This time is different
Martin Hermoso there is a 90% chance we are going to have a global currency collapse
This time is much worse.
Yes sir!
You can't boogie!
Buy Gold Buy Bitcoin
Excellent as always!!
Thanks so much Allenky
look up John Law and the Mississippi Bubble