If the old man stays alive (and I pray he will) he is going to clean up again, everybody knows it, he has proved himself correct more times over the last 50 years that I can remember
This was imo rather reasonable & balanced analysis. Not really anything I disagreed with. One thing was missing though - why exactly did Berkshire have so much cash in 2005?
When I did a business BTEC course one of my tutors talked about him. Ever since then I’ve watch a lot of documentaries about him. Also I like the fact that he’s down to earth
The Shiller PE ratio for the S&P500 is 36. There is not one example in history (in any geography) of an index that returned anything meaningful over 10-15 years from such multiples. Apple in particular trades at 34x earnings, it barely grows and distributes all of its profit through buybacks, which at such absurd multiples represent an under 3% yield. Hence the question is not so much why Buffett is selling, but rather why on earth is there anybody buying or holding it.
If Apple's multiple contracts from 34x to 20x over the next 10 years (because the overall market sentiment deteriorates, because investors lose confidence the company's ability to grow further..., you name it), that is a -5% CAGR, which would offset the 2.7% buyback and inflation. So your return would boil down to whatever excess growth the business can produce, which over the past few years has been none. So why bother?
@@sender5804 XYZ is up is not a rationale, or a strategy, or anything. Buffett doesn't even mention stock performance in his letters. He only focuses on and reports operating earnings from his wholly owned businesses plus the dividends from the stock portfolio: that's it. When Buffet looks at Apple, he sees marginal growth, an under 3% yield from repurchases at idiotik multiples and masisve valuation risk, so he sells. Very simple.
In the Saxo advert you say that Saxo has no platform or custody fees. Can you explain that further, because when I go to the Saxo site I see a custody fee of 0.12%.
As the man once quipped, "You don't need to spend your money the way you made your money". BRK's cash (treasuries) pile in prevailing circumstances beat CPI in return, and allow continued value investing where opportunities arise.
@@philthomas7140 without even going into why 5% is extremely poor in the current environment I was responding more to do with money markets being considered a safe haven for your money. They aren’t - see 2008.
Invest in Bitcoin before retiring by diversifying across assets, allocating a small portion of your portfolio, staying updated on market trends, and considering long-term holding to balance risk and growth.
Hi you mention keeping 10% in money market equivalent funds (dry powder). And previously mentioned 5% for fun/temptation. Is it safe to assume the other 85% is in developed World indexed equity tracker or are there any other apportions not mentioned above in your total investment process. Cheers
Good call, imagine there is some succession plan which takes them both out of day to day. Like Vito Corleone in a consigliere role to his rising stars and/or family. Good MHR topic right there ! How active funds end.
Thank you very much for your insights and views that you share. Albeit I am not from the UK, but the U.S. I find your channel balanced, insightful and quite helpful. In part, I made my decision to retire abroad the 1st of this month due to information you shared in the past and reference your channel frequently. Thank you for taking the time and considerable effort to keep us informed with your channel.
BH has been essentially a 50% apple 50% boomer value stocks investment over the past 15 years. It's been a very concentrated portfolio, which has delivered because the bet on Apple was spot on. WB and BH are waiting for a similar opportunity.
Warren Buffett has stated that he's holding a large amount of cash because he doesn't see any stocks that are attractive enough to invest in. He usually prefers not to hold cash.
@@Art-is-craft He has stated that he doesn't like holding large amounts of cash for extended periods, describing it as a "terrible long-term asset" because it doesn't generate returns and gradually loses value due to inflation.
@@caparn100 That’s true for an individual investor. Berkshire on the other hand is a corporation with operating costs of 200 billion per year. They could have such cash to ensure that if winter comes they are secure.
Hi @FarmerGwyn as @cosy1914 says Buffett is planning to give almost all of his wealth away. "More than 99% of my wealth will go to philanthropy during my lifetime or at death. Measured by dollars, this commitment is large. In a comparative sense, though, many individuals give more to others every day" givingpledge.org/pledger?pledgerId=177 Thanks, Ramin
@@innosanto He is personally worth well over $100billion, Berkshire Hathway is worth nearly a trillion, these are funds held by the wealthiest in society, paying dividends for no productive effort, and it is the very reason that there is so much poverty, we work our arses off paying that extra tenner for fuel each week, another extra £10 for heating, another £10 for health insurance, another £50 for our housing, a fiver for the phones we use. Every single time you transact you are putting money in their pockets, so while your working your arse off, they are sat there on their yachts, and mansions laughing at you.
Thing is you're not going to clean up with just 10% "dry powder". But go too high with your dry powder and you'll look the fool when there is no crash, so if you want to hedge for a recession the dry powder % has to be some where in between, only question is where.....
Depends on your own analysis of the market & your vision of short, moderate and long term. I feel we have a 70% chance that the markets will correct 25%+ in next 6-12 months and I believe there is a 10% chance the market will grow 10%+ in next 6-12 months. So for me the upswing of not deploying £100 is potentially a 25% return 70% of the time The potentially for losing £10+ on a £100 investment 90% of time in next 6months Now in the long term just invest in a global eft - the world will grow. But right now I'm keeping 30% off the table personally. No one knows really. It's just about taking risks with analysis to make asymmetrical bets that win more than lose.
The S and P seems very expensive at the moment. If the US goes into recession I can see shares getting a lot cheaper in years to come, at the moment I'm not putting any money into the market I'm just going to wait and see.
That's a big "if" and share prices usually fall ahead of a recession and start to recover during a recession, not after. If there is a recession soon, it's unlikely to last years (probably about 1 year) and any recovery will start before it's over - the market is always forward-looking.
A good strategy would be to just invest into Berkshire. Let warren jump in and out of the market for you to mitigate market volatility. Me personally I’ll just dollar cost average into a globally diversified market weighted index fund. I let the best companies win
He could easily afford a venture capitalist sideline, pick a few mid caps he thinks could be the next apple , take a big share or even private and ensure they have the funds and expertise to develop, he only need's to be right on one for BH to clean up.
He knows based on debt to gdp that financial repression is on the way...negative real interest rates and gold confiscation. We are at a diminishing return for printing paper money from thin air...
The US markets are very skittish, but Berkshire is more like owning a stable bond than an equity. Nobody has more firepower to buy the next crash. I've been avoiding exposure to the US, with the exception of Berkshire and Palantir
Wealth of the wicked is layed up for me they shall gather it up but I shall put it on he that by usery and Unjust gain increaset his substance he shall gather it up for me because I pity the poor they work
@@adrianpaulwynneexactly it is a part of what keeps him alive and wants to get out of bed each day .....passion .And I strongly believe someone or some groups will benefit greatly when the time comes
The only reason capital gains tax feels like it needs to be increased is because these billionaires are not redistributing their wealth on their own terms. This guy could have improved millions of peoples lives by redistributing to the poorest people world wide or even within the US. He has however chosen to continue to amass more and more wealth. And this is what has caused governments to need to tax these to reduce wealth inequality.
Exactly - nothing stopping you buying a piece of the action - BRK-B - also rarer he’s not leaving virtually any of it to his kids and it will be re-distributed when he dies.
raising cap gains tax has un predictable consequences as people affected may just chose to wait until the rate is more favourable thus delaying or nullifying any anticipated uptick in revenues.
It was stupid of me to sell $96,000 worth of NVDA stocks without reinvesting. (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me). I’d rather stay 100% cash, or are there any other investments that can 10x in 6 months? I have 200k ready to be reinvested
Use an index like the sp500 if you have no knowledge of the markets. Take a long-term look at dollar cost averaging, or even better, think about financial advising
Wealth of the wicked is layed up for me they shall gather it up but I shall put it on he that by usery and Unjust gain increaset his substance he shall gather it up for me because I pity the poor they work
If I had a $280 Billion Cash Pile I'd have more than Warren Buffett 'cause I'd do a bit of window cleaning on the side.
Mr. Buffet does window shopping.
@@dadtablet2092 Buffet can only go window shopping if the windows are clean!
If the old man stays alive (and I pray he will) he is going to clean up again, everybody knows it, he has proved himself correct more times over the last 50 years that I can remember
This was imo rather reasonable & balanced analysis.
Not really anything I disagreed with.
One thing was missing though - why exactly did Berkshire have so much cash in 2005?
When I did a business BTEC course one of my tutors talked about him. Ever since then I’ve watch a lot of documentaries about him. Also I like the fact that he’s down to earth
The Shiller PE ratio for the S&P500 is 36. There is not one example in history (in any geography) of an index that returned anything meaningful over 10-15 years from such multiples.
Apple in particular trades at 34x earnings, it barely grows and distributes all of its profit through buybacks, which at such absurd multiples represent an under 3% yield.
Hence the question is not so much why Buffett is selling, but rather why on earth is there anybody buying or holding it.
If Apple's multiple contracts from 34x to 20x over the next 10 years (because the overall market sentiment deteriorates, because investors lose confidence the company's ability to grow further..., you name it), that is a -5% CAGR, which would offset the 2.7% buyback and inflation. So your return would boil down to whatever excess growth the business can produce, which over the past few years has been none. So why bother?
"why on earth is there anybody buying or holding it"
S&P500 is up 18% YTD
@@sender5804 XYZ is up is not a rationale, or a strategy, or anything. Buffett doesn't even mention stock performance in his letters. He only focuses on and reports operating earnings from his wholly owned businesses plus the dividends from the stock portfolio: that's it. When Buffet looks at Apple, he sees marginal growth, an under 3% yield from repurchases at idiotik multiples and masisve valuation risk, so he sells. Very simple.
@@sender5804 Ah right, so it will go infinitely to the moon and beyond. Yield curve is wrong, this time is different.
@@piotrjasielski "this time its different" just look at the last 100 years if YTD is not good enough for you 🤣
I can't help but feel the UK stock market is a value trap? Would you agree ramin
Thank you, as ever sensible and balanced.
Berkshire’s Apple holding reached 22% of its assets, which is substantially overweight. It is normal for them to normalise this to a degree over time.
In the Saxo advert you say that Saxo has no platform or custody fees. Can you explain that further, because when I go to the Saxo site I see a custody fee of 0.12%.
As the man once quipped, "You don't need to spend your money the way you made your money". BRK's cash (treasuries) pile in prevailing circumstances beat CPI in return, and allow continued value investing where opportunities arise.
How do you always know exactly the video we want to watch :D
I’m 100% in the money markets. Could be wrong, don’t care. I sleep well.
You are wrong and it shouldn’t make you sleep well.
Actually I agree. 5% is nothing to sneeze at.
@@philthomas7140 without even going into why 5% is extremely poor in the current environment I was responding more to do with money markets being considered a safe haven for your money. They aren’t - see 2008.
Invest in Bitcoin before retiring by diversifying across assets, allocating a small portion of your portfolio, staying updated on market trends, and considering long-term holding to balance risk and growth.
Hi you mention keeping 10% in money market equivalent funds (dry powder). And previously mentioned 5% for fun/temptation. Is it safe to assume the other 85% is in developed World indexed equity tracker or are there any other apportions not mentioned above in your total investment process. Cheers
He just misses Charlie and cant pull the trigger - I imagine its not the same when you loose a life-long investment partner at that stage of life.
Good call, imagine there is some succession plan which takes them both out of day to day. Like Vito Corleone in a consigliere role to his rising stars and/or family. Good MHR topic right there ! How active funds end.
Interesting point
No, it's because he can get 5% on his cash. At a time when valuations are at nosebleed prices
Thank you very much for your insights and views that you share. Albeit I am not from the UK, but the U.S. I find your channel balanced, insightful and quite helpful. In part, I made my decision to retire abroad the 1st of this month due to information you shared in the past and reference your channel frequently. Thank you for taking the time and considerable effort to keep us informed with your channel.
Thanks and welcome @LNS-WeBinIndia
BH has been essentially a 50% apple 50% boomer value stocks investment over the past 15 years. It's been a very concentrated portfolio, which has delivered because the bet on Apple was spot on. WB and BH are waiting for a similar opportunity.
BH has tens of thousands of miles of rail, building companies, factories, offices and so on. That money keeps it all secure and stable.
Do Markel next please.
Saxo is very expensive if you trade options, left them
How much of that cash pile is stashed in 2-yr t-notes, driving down the yields and uninverting the yield curve?
Warren Buffett has stated that he's holding a large amount of cash because he doesn't see any stocks that are attractive enough to invest in. He usually prefers not to hold cash.
Berkshire is a conglomerate with nearly half a million employees that’s the sort of money it needs to hold to be secure.
@@Art-is-craft He has stated that he doesn't like holding large amounts of cash for extended periods, describing it as a "terrible long-term asset" because it doesn't generate returns and gradually loses value due to inflation.
@@caparn100
That’s true for an individual investor. Berkshire on the other hand is a corporation with operating costs of 200 billion per year. They could have such cash to ensure that if winter comes they are secure.
@@Art-is-craft So why does he say he is holding more cash than usual?
@@caparn100
The money belongs to the corporation. They have held that level of cash before. Berkshire is not a fund but is a conglomerate.
I find it quite offensive that a single person takes so much wealth for himself, it should be outlawed.
I believe he is planning to give it all away to causes.
Hi @FarmerGwyn as @cosy1914 says Buffett is planning to give almost all of his wealth away. "More than 99% of my wealth will go to philanthropy during my lifetime or at death. Measured by dollars, this commitment is large. In a comparative sense, though, many individuals give more to others every day" givingpledge.org/pledger?pledgerId=177 Thanks, Ramin
It is not for himself, he invests it which means he funds companies
@@innosanto He is personally worth well over $100billion, Berkshire Hathway is worth nearly a trillion, these are funds held by the wealthiest in society, paying dividends for no productive effort, and it is the very reason that there is so much poverty, we work our arses off paying that extra tenner for fuel each week, another extra £10 for heating, another £10 for health insurance, another £50 for our housing, a fiver for the phones we use. Every single time you transact you are putting money in their pockets, so while your working your arse off, they are sat there on their yachts, and mansions laughing at you.
Oh, and don't get me started on the Koch brothers, they are just pure evil
Thing is you're not going to clean up with just 10% "dry powder". But go too high with your dry powder and you'll look the fool when there is no crash, so if you want to hedge for a recession the dry powder % has to be some where in between, only question is where.....
Depends on your own analysis of the market & your vision of short, moderate and long term. I feel we have a 70% chance that the markets will correct 25%+ in next 6-12 months and I believe there is a 10% chance the market will grow 10%+ in next 6-12 months.
So for me the upswing of not deploying £100 is potentially a 25% return 70% of the time
The potentially for losing £10+ on a £100 investment 90% of time in next 6months
Now in the long term just invest in a global eft - the world will grow.
But right now I'm keeping 30% off the table personally.
No one knows really.
It's just about taking risks with analysis to make asymmetrical bets that win more than lose.
The S and P seems very expensive at the moment. If the US goes into recession I can see shares getting a lot cheaper in years to come, at the moment I'm not putting any money into the market I'm just going to wait and see.
That's a big "if" and share prices usually fall ahead of a recession and start to recover during a recession, not after.
If there is a recession soon, it's unlikely to last years (probably about 1 year) and any recovery will start before it's over - the market is always forward-looking.
Could have said that in 2023.
Wouldn't have aged well.
212 is back up to 5.1 % gbp .nice
I was just looking at Vanguard’s new Sterling Short Term MMF (VASTMGA) today. 🤔
Or vasstai if you want the income (5.27%)
A good strategy would be to just invest into Berkshire. Let warren jump in and out of the market for you to mitigate market volatility.
Me personally I’ll just dollar cost average into a globally diversified market weighted index fund.
I let the best companies win
He could easily afford a venture capitalist sideline, pick a few mid caps he thinks could be the next apple , take a big share or even private and ensure they have the funds and expertise to develop, he only need's to be right on one for BH to clean up.
10% dry powder, that’s just another name for timing the market!!
The irony is his whole book is about never to try time the market... while he is sitting with cash trying to time the market.
Not really, its probably sitting in Money Market fund earning 5% anyway. If great opportunity comes along he will swap out to equity.
Buffet is a regime insider so may know what's in the pipeline
I won't be trading on saxo , far too risky
I left a massive comment from before and it disappeared… hmmm
Awesome! Time to pick up the cue!
Enjoy @SaadonAksah
He’s been buying SIRI hand over fist
US reits when interest rates are low
Buffett says we/Berkshire. Media says He/Buffet. Buffett is part of a decision making team with delegated decision making.
He knows based on debt to gdp that financial repression is on the way...negative real interest rates and gold confiscation. We are at a diminishing return for printing paper money from thin air...
The US markets are very skittish, but Berkshire is more like owning a stable bond than an equity. Nobody has more firepower to buy the next crash.
I've been avoiding exposure to the US, with the exception of Berkshire and Palantir
People that say they are avoiding US exposure simply are not avoiding it. If the US goes down so does everybody.
Wealth of the wicked is layed up for me they shall gather it up but I shall put it on he that by usery and Unjust gain increaset his substance he shall gather it up for me because I pity the poor they work
Is it cash in bank or money market funds?
Treasuries i think ?
In the 10K report, it's mostly in 3 or 6-month treasuries.
Why on earth does a 94 year old man need so much money?
And where will it go when he snuffs it?
@@Petersworld77he’s committed to donating 99% to charity, the rest to his wife of course
he doesn't. investing is his passion and interest
@@robertingram9404 In his daughter's 'charitable' trust to avoid inheritance tax to be exact : )
@@adrianpaulwynneexactly it is a part of what keeps him alive and wants to get out of bed each day .....passion .And I strongly believe someone or some groups will benefit greatly when the time comes
Very simple, charlie gone and buffet knows his time is near. He's gonna pile cash and let the knew berkshire decide what to do.
Money is meant to be used , circulated...not put in a room to be stared at. Yawn.
It is part of Berkshires finances not his own personal pleasure fund. The company has hundreds of thousands of employees.
The only reason capital gains tax feels like it needs to be increased is because these billionaires are not redistributing their wealth on their own terms. This guy could have improved millions of peoples lives by redistributing to the poorest people world wide or even within the US. He has however chosen to continue to amass more and more wealth. And this is what has caused governments to need to tax these to reduce wealth inequality.
RetroShotv1
Warren is a rare person indeed in that he delivers.
People trust him with their saving and rightly so he is enriching them.
Exactly - nothing stopping you buying a piece of the action - BRK-B - also rarer he’s not leaving virtually any of it to his kids and it will be re-distributed when he dies.
raising cap gains tax has un predictable consequences as people affected may just chose to wait until the rate is more favourable thus delaying or nullifying any anticipated uptick in revenues.
Warren Buffett is nuts!! He should be buying Tesla!!!
It was stupid of me to sell $96,000 worth of NVDA stocks without reinvesting. (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me). I’d rather stay 100% cash, or are there any other investments that can 10x in 6 months? I have 200k ready to be reinvested
Use an index like the sp500 if you have no knowledge of the markets. Take a long-term look at dollar cost averaging, or even better, think about financial advising
Wealth of the wicked is layed up for me they shall gather it up but I shall put it on he that by usery and Unjust gain increaset his substance he shall gather it up for me because I pity the poor they work