Keep him. 😁 Skill AND luck, the perfect package. Reading the comments, especially the boat just a bit behind you, shows you were both right. But Stephane knows that even if worse comes to worse you have the skills and the boat to weather the problem. Misfortune can always strike no matter your course, but most times preparation and competency will get you through and he has factored that in. You two make a good balanced team. He plots a safer course than he would without you Holly so the combination is ideal. Thanks for sharing your adventures.
My experience with Predict Wind in the eastern Pacific since 2020 , although a good tool, it consistently underestimates wind speed by 6 to 8knots. In October we were on the water heading from Puerto Vallarta to Barra de Navidad to known hurricane hole marina. We were about 300 miles north of Acapulco. The hurricane that completely destroyed Acapulco and 800 boats with 250mph winds was not predicted by any of the weather models on Predict Wind until 18 hours before it hit.
Great questions asked and I answer by saying experience is everything ..... I would never trust intuition except when I have no experience of what Im about to attempt.
Holly, I agree with you about weather forecast models. I flew in the military for a few years, we flew no matter the weather - rain, snow, wind, hurricane or typhoon - Navy did not care, time to go! The crews came up with an acronym for the weather forecast - it was referred to as the SWAG Sheet. SWAG stands for Scientific Wild Ass Guess... or weather forecast! Thanks for the ride! Fair winds...
Holly, you've crossed the Atlantic!!!! You've got à boat that can handle 40-50 knots winds. Réef, roll in the genny a bit, and you'll be sweet. More fear than intuition. Do you not trust Stephane and his decision making yet?
Je te rejoins un peu Holly...dans le sens où si le modèle météo se trompe, ce n'est pas lui ensuite qui peut te porter aide, secours, voir au pire assistance... Bref, 🎉, je préfère le model sailing Champagne de Steph...at the beginning.. Prenez soin de vous... On vous adorrr 😅😅
Nothing like a little Sortilège sundowner, to celebrate your safe arrival 😁. I always say, no such thing as bad weather, just bad equipment and bad preparation. I think you were both right, it’s good to be a little nervous, makes you that much more cautious and prepared. Love you guys, keep the videos coming, cheers!
90% LUCK and we wish we had some of it that day! We were only 10 miles north of your boat on the same morning, forced to sail to Staniel Cay to drop off a guest aboard. We too got up at sunrise, trying to beat the front. We got hammered just as we entered Big Rock Cut at Staniel. 40 knot winds, heavy rain zero visibility and anchored/dragging boats everywhere. Trust your intuition, and keep Stephane aboard as a good luck charm.
Quelle LA VIE!! 😁beautiful Bahama's. Different perspectives different situations allow for more excitement on AWEN's channel. I learn so much from your opinions and decisions on your experiences. Keep up the excellent videography, and yes Holly intuition is always a good listen. Being married 45 yrs full time travellers mostly in RV. We learned the hard way to speak up, talking it out makes each other comfortable and less anxious with "the decision" or "change the plan" It's not easy sometimes but speaking out is the part that's harder, instead of putting those intuitions aside ...making it easy. Ps My husband's French too! same patterns...LOL!
I respect where you’re coming from. Mother Nature can be an awesome force. On the other hand. You’re both young and strong. What’s life without taking chances (with science behind you). You’ll have many stories to tell.
Holly I feel your pain. I tell everyone I ride the coattails of my husbands luck! He hates that I plan. He does all last minute and it always works out for him. 😂
I'd call this "Cristal Champagne sailing", as in Louis Roederer's exclusive and expensive Cristal Champagne 🙂. Sailed these waters many many times. Love your channel and Holly's candid filming and editing. Fair winds, from a fellow French sailor and boat owner, married to an American, living in the US.
To clarify, I am an advocate for adding intuition to the data and skills bucket as one more factor to base decisions on. But yes, in this instance it looks like skills and luck win.
Intuition develops with deeper dives into data analysis and experience. So i am sure you will get the intuition getting accurate with time regarding weather systems and associated risk
I dont know how prevailing winds are there this time of the year, but in some areas you get wind from good direction to your destination only when there is low pressure system around. So maybe you only had two options: either go against wind and waves, or sail when it rains?
There is a natural power struggle between couples sharing their dreams together. Once they have a few more crossings under their belt it will all shake out. They will need to share some adversity together. It’s all good. 😊
I think it’s finding the right balance too. To drive a car safely you need both the gas and the brakes. We are just running a little jerky right now, so I think you’re right Mary.
I am logical but I always trust my gut (intuition). I have switched which roads to take over this. As my friends are saying WTF this way is faster. Later they learn an accident happened on the other road. Would I have been involved or just delayed on other road? Always trust your gut feelings and as you use them more they become even better.
100% Holly. I am very scientific but I have a wicked 6th sense. You explained it super well.. when our subconscious tells us something we don't know the why.. I fight myself all the time. I usually give in to my 6th sense
Excellent episode -- INTUITION -- is super important. Being able to discriminate between one thing and the other, at a gut level, is the basis of living and your senses immediately let you know whether you wish or trust something. While the word "discrimination" has somehow acquired a bad meaning (and in some respects it can be a horrible thing - we all know that), intuition is such a basic concept and a healthy needed concept that allows everyone to get along and make life better. Intuition is based on discerning and discriminating carefully between life's choices and is used by everyone in various degrees.
First. Weather predictions are often wrong, because it's extremely difficult to predict weather. Even if you had perfect data (like weather stations every 10 feet), it would still be difficult. Second. The others batten down. Did they have to go to Georgetown? Third. If you got hit full on by the worse of the weather, would it have been uncomfortable or dangerous? I'm leaning towards uncomfortable. Your boat can take a licking and keep on ticking. Fourth. If someone is CONSISTENTLY lucky, then it's not luck. Luck (good or bad) can't be consistent!
As I’ve said before it’s only predicted wind (estimated) so data is incomplete,if you had stayed put it would have been scary so,Holly’s intuition was incorrect and Stephan’s intuition was correct sorry Holly 🤷♂️ 😊
What program are you using to visually display your route? Not cxou chart plotter but the one that shows the littles sail boat folling a red path on the map to show where you are going/have gone?
Holly, If you ask Jean marc, I think he would tell you like old sailors know how the weather pattern can lead you....Using Weather Pridicting models, are good tools for long passages but they are not be perfect. In reality these models are just predicting programming with data. Holly, women have other systems and intuition is key, you were both right. Weather can change suddenly from dark to light. Trust your intuition through your body, and senses - what does it tell you ? If you feel uncomfortable about something within, It's a signal. You need to detect the issue within, why because all the energetic signals come through the water and your body is made of 78 % water, you are living on the water !!! Men use more the logic programming by nature.🖥 🌍 Ask Cat Great Circle how they manage sailing with their Outremer 55 - They seem to be well aligned. Different skills combination is good. What does Nikky think about this topic ? There is a writer who did some work which reflects your questioning : Men come from Mars, women come from Venus....The challenge is that both skills are needed and the balance, depends on many factors.
The women are more careful as they gave tgat baby 9 months of their body and their life. The male contribution to tge baby... yeah right. But the male has to feed and support the mother and the child, so hed better get out there lill some buffalos, unless theyre to survive on mushroom. The survival mechanism is still very strong.
Women, for the most part, live their lives based on the fear of "what might happen"? Men for the most part, live their lives based on "what's the worst that could happen"? That's why men were the the great explorers. Women crave safety and consistency, due to physical reality. Men prefer to be risk takers. We are just different. That doesn't mean that we can't be great as a partnership. That being said, if men listened to every fear that their wives had, we would never have been the explorers/entrepreneurs that we have been.
Luck favors those who are well prepared. Nice job finding the weather window. 👍
Perfect combination. Skills of reading weather data with that pinch of intuition which can save the day. Great video!
Keep him. 😁 Skill AND luck, the perfect package. Reading the comments, especially the boat just a bit behind you, shows you were both right. But Stephane knows that even if worse comes to worse you have the skills and the boat to weather the problem. Misfortune can always strike no matter your course, but most times preparation and competency will get you through and he has factored that in. You two make a good balanced team. He plots a safer course than he would without you Holly so the combination is ideal. Thanks for sharing your adventures.
My experience with Predict Wind in the eastern Pacific since 2020 , although a good tool, it consistently underestimates wind speed by 6 to 8knots. In October we were on the water heading from Puerto Vallarta to Barra de Navidad to known hurricane hole marina. We were about 300 miles north of Acapulco. The hurricane that completely destroyed Acapulco and 800 boats with 250mph winds was not predicted by any of the weather models on Predict Wind until 18 hours before it hit.
Great questions asked and I answer by saying experience is everything ..... I would never trust intuition except when I have no experience of what Im about to attempt.
Thanks for the video. There is no substitute for having a happy, confident and comfortable crew...regardless of logic or intuition.
Stephane, perhaps “Champagne Plus Sailing” may work?
Holly, I agree with you about weather forecast models. I flew in the military for a few years, we flew no matter the weather - rain, snow, wind, hurricane or typhoon - Navy did not care, time to go! The crews came up with an acronym for the weather forecast - it was referred to as the SWAG Sheet. SWAG stands for Scientific Wild Ass Guess... or weather forecast! Thanks for the ride! Fair winds...
I love that. I’m using that term now onboard! 🤣
Holly, you've crossed the Atlantic!!!! You've got à boat that can handle 40-50 knots winds. Réef, roll in the genny a bit, and you'll be sweet. More fear than intuition. Do you not trust Stephane and his decision making yet?
I don’t trust the weather models😎
Je te rejoins un peu Holly...dans le sens où si le modèle météo se trompe, ce n'est pas lui ensuite qui peut te porter aide, secours, voir au pire assistance...
Bref, 🎉, je préfère le model sailing Champagne de Steph...at the beginning..
Prenez soin de vous... On vous adorrr 😅😅
Nothing like a little Sortilège sundowner, to celebrate your safe arrival 😁. I always say, no such thing as bad weather, just bad equipment and bad preparation. I think you were both right, it’s good to be a little nervous, makes you that much more cautious and prepared. Love you guys, keep the videos coming, cheers!
Balance is key, great video.
A great book to read is biology of belief by Bruce Lipton. May explain a lot about luck as you call it. Great video. Thanks
You two make an amazing team!! ❤❤ I loved this episode.
Haha Stephan.. great job. I luv you both. Yin and yang..
Haha opposite attracts. awesome example and very well edited👍
90% LUCK and we wish we had some of it that day! We were only 10 miles north of your boat on the same morning, forced to sail to Staniel Cay to drop off a guest aboard. We too got up at sunrise, trying to beat the front. We got hammered just as we entered Big Rock Cut at Staniel. 40 knot winds, heavy rain zero visibility and anchored/dragging boats everywhere. Trust your intuition, and keep Stephane aboard as a good luck charm.
Quelle LA VIE!! 😁beautiful Bahama's. Different perspectives different situations allow for more excitement on AWEN's channel. I learn so much from your opinions and decisions on your experiences. Keep up the excellent videography, and yes Holly intuition is always a good listen. Being married 45 yrs full time travellers mostly in RV. We learned the hard way to speak up, talking it out makes each other comfortable and less anxious with "the decision" or "change the plan" It's not easy sometimes but speaking out is the part that's harder, instead of putting those intuitions aside ...making it easy. Ps My husband's French too! same patterns...LOL!
All that matters is y’all are safe❤
I respect where you’re coming from. Mother Nature can be an awesome force. On the other hand. You’re both young and strong. What’s life without taking chances (with science behind you). You’ll have many stories to tell.
Holly I feel your pain. I tell everyone I ride the coattails of my husbands luck! He hates that I plan. He does all last minute and it always works out for him. 😂
I'd call this "Cristal Champagne sailing", as in Louis Roederer's exclusive and expensive Cristal Champagne 🙂. Sailed these waters many many times. Love your channel and Holly's candid filming and editing. Fair winds, from a fellow French sailor and boat owner, married to an American, living in the US.
This video is a great example of how skills surpass any intuition.
To clarify, I am an advocate for adding intuition to the data and skills bucket as one more factor to base decisions on. But yes, in this instance it looks like skills and luck win.
Intuition develops with deeper dives into data analysis and experience. So i am sure you will get the intuition getting accurate with time regarding weather systems and associated risk
I dont know how prevailing winds are there this time of the year, but in some areas you get wind from good direction to your destination only when there is low pressure system around. So maybe you only had two options: either go against wind and waves, or sail when it rains?
Holly, Stephane is NOT lucky. Hes studied everything, he has years of racing and tons of experience which he trusts. Learn to trust his experience. 😊
There is a natural power struggle between couples sharing their dreams together. Once they have a few more crossings under their belt it will all shake out. They will need to share some adversity together. It’s all good. 😊
I think it’s finding the right balance too. To drive a car safely you need both the gas and the brakes. We are just running a little jerky right now, so I think you’re right Mary.
You guys are awesome! Enjoy the wonderful cruising grounds on your wonderful new boat.
I am logical but I always trust my gut (intuition). I have switched which roads to take over this. As my friends are saying WTF this way is faster. Later they learn an accident happened on the other road. Would I have been involved or just delayed on other road? Always trust your gut feelings and as you use them more they become even better.
Always always trust your intuition.
Great call, we stayed at Big Majors and got clocked pretty hard with that micro burst, not fun at all
100% Holly. I am very scientific but I have a wicked 6th sense. You explained it super well.. when our subconscious tells us something we don't know the why.. I fight myself all the time. I usually give in to my 6th sense
Nobody is right or wrong. You are a couple and need to respect each others opinions and come up with a plan that both can tolerate
Excellent episode -- INTUITION -- is super important. Being able to discriminate between one thing and the other, at a gut level, is the basis of living and your senses immediately let you know whether you wish or trust something. While the word "discrimination" has somehow acquired a bad meaning (and in some respects it can be a horrible thing - we all know that), intuition is such a basic concept and a healthy needed concept that allows everyone to get along and make life better. Intuition is based on discerning and discriminating carefully between life's choices and is used by everyone in various degrees.
Hi Holly & Stephan , did you go east to farmers cay?
Im more of ‘trust but verify’ with the weather! Cheers Warren
We were at Farmer’s for an afternoon basically. It was lovely.
Prepare for the worst (add 10) pray for best (take 10)..
Put the times on it and trust you intuition.
Having one of those data driven, engineering brains, I think your unconscious mind comment was a classic Freudian slip ... 🙂
Lol
First. Weather predictions are often wrong, because it's extremely difficult to predict weather. Even if you had perfect data (like weather stations every 10 feet), it would still be difficult.
Second. The others batten down. Did they have to go to Georgetown?
Third. If you got hit full on by the worse of the weather, would it have been uncomfortable or dangerous? I'm leaning towards uncomfortable. Your boat can take a licking and keep on ticking.
Fourth. If someone is CONSISTENTLY lucky, then it's not luck. Luck (good or bad) can't be consistent!
The same intuition that says "taste the bilge water"?
No, everyone else was chicken🤣
As I’ve said before it’s only predicted wind (estimated) so data is incomplete,if you had stayed put it would have been scary so,Holly’s intuition was incorrect and Stephan’s intuition was correct sorry Holly 🤷♂️ 😊
Fair enough!
What program are you using to visually display your route? Not cxou chart plotter but the one that shows the littles sail boat folling a red path on the map to show where you are going/have gone?
Adrena Octopus on the big screen, Navionics on the ipad
@@SailingAWEN Not the navigation but the nice video route you show in all your videos. 😆
@@syfeelingood travelboast.com/
Comparison with other animated travel route maps apps
techpp.com/2023/10/16/apps-to-create-animated-travel-route-map/
@@SailingAWEN Fantastic, thanks!
Holly, If you ask Jean marc, I think he would tell you like old sailors know how the weather pattern can lead you....Using Weather Pridicting models, are good tools for long passages but they are not be perfect. In reality these models are just predicting programming with data. Holly, women have other systems and intuition is key, you were both right. Weather can change suddenly from dark to light. Trust your intuition through your body, and senses - what does it tell you ? If you feel uncomfortable about something within, It's a signal. You need to detect the issue within, why because all the energetic signals come through the water and your body is made of 78 % water, you are living on the water !!! Men use more the logic programming by nature.🖥 🌍 Ask Cat Great Circle how they manage sailing with their Outremer 55 - They seem to be well aligned. Different skills combination is good. What does Nikky think about this topic ? There is a writer who did some work which reflects your questioning : Men come from Mars, women come from Venus....The challenge is that both skills are needed and the balance, depends on many factors.
Agree. To drive a sports car safely you need both the gas and the brakes!
skål
I think you’re supposed to use a little of both of your thought processes and philosophies. I don’t think just one way is right. Best,
I usually trust my wifes intution Aren’t women always right😂
The women are more careful as they gave tgat baby 9 months of their body and their life. The male contribution to tge baby... yeah right. But the male has to feed and support the mother and the child, so hed better get out there lill some buffalos, unless theyre to survive on mushroom. The survival mechanism is still very strong.
Women, for the most part, live their lives based on the fear of "what might happen"? Men for the most part, live their lives based on "what's the worst that could happen"? That's why men were the the great explorers. Women crave safety and consistency, due to physical reality. Men prefer to be risk takers. We are just different. That doesn't mean that we can't be great as a partnership. That being said, if men listened to every fear that their wives had, we would never have been the explorers/entrepreneurs that we have been.
I’m assuming a man is writing this. 🤣
@@SailingAWEN A happily married (for 34 years) man.
Mme…intuition or anxiety? Common sense or wanting to be in charge? Holly thought you had come so far?
Although, Mistrusting forecasts is never daft…
I have no desire to be in charge, trust me.