Ted Oakley - Oxbow Advisors - Interview Series 2024 - David Rosenberg - January 18, 2024
Вставка
- Опубліковано 25 чер 2024
- Ted Oakley interviews David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on the coming recession, lower interest rates, and the overpriced stock market.
Visit www.oxbowadvisors.com/2023-books for a complimentary copy of Ted Oakley's new book "Stay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio" Link: oxbowadvisors.com/balanced-po...
To speak to a portfolio manager at Oxbow Advisors click this link: bit.ly/3Tg0YIS
Social Media & UA-cam Disclosure: bit.ly/3LJ8IRs
0:00-1:07 Intro
1:07-7:00 What Is Happening With The Consumer?
7:00-14:25 Inflation Outlook
14:25-20:39 Bonds & Interest Rates
20:39-24:25 Market Sentiment
24:25-27:40 Stock Market Outlook
27:40-29:13 Rosenberg Research Strategizer
29:13-35:06 Today’s Market vs Previous Highs
35:06-37:50 What Should Investors Do Right Now?
37:50-39:00 Outro
Rosenberg: brilliant and practical. Ted: top-notch interviewing. Thanks to you both!
And he always wears pants when he zooms, I hear, unlike some cheaters in a necktie, blazer, and boxers.
Ted is by far one of my favorite financial people out there. I also like that, in other interviews, he shares his philosophy toward life and happiness, not just
money. Rosenberg is a great guest too. Thank you, Ted.
What bothers me is that Rosenberg is very smart, very articulate, he makes perfect sense and yet, year after year, he is consistently proven wrong. With all his smarts, he just doesn't know.
It’s all about the us government piling money in the system .
The fed back stoping bank failures with their program that ends in March this year .
Once it stops watch out .
Reverse repo almost dry too .
No wonder the fed said they will cut rates ….
It’s coming in a big way .
Market stay higher then one can imagine .
Fantastic conversation - thank you both so much!
Great interview! Huge thanks to both.
Two (2) investment people who absolutely represent the proverbial "voice of reason." A GREAT VIDEO !! Thank you.
Thanks Ted!
Thanks, Ted. Another great interview.
Totally enjoyed this interview. Thanks Ted!
Ted Oakley and David Rosenberg: the voices of clarity.
Everybody is wrong some of the time. For me, what is a major turnoff with Rosenberg is that his conviction borders on obnoxious arrogance.
Bingo!
Thanks Ted ☺️
Thanks Ted and Rosie.
David is the most knowledgeable macro person. This is great. Thanks.
Great video. Thank you
Great show
DR called the bond market correctly 6 months ago..
It seems that half the analysts are saying that inflation will flare up again and the other half are saying that it will be down by end of year and will stay down 🤷🏻
Thanks Ted...great guest, great information.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
10 tips slide was very interesting
I wish that someone could do a deep dive on productivity. Anecdotally it seems to me that employers have to hire 10 people for what 8 or 9 used to do. And has AI really blunted all of the negative, wasteful practices that have been put into place over the few years? Not to mention all of the non-productive government interventions.
Employers don't pay as well as they used to. Employees aren't going to work hard for meager pay, especially when the executives make 10-100x times as much and they just sit at their desks and waste company money on luxuries like first class travel and expensive furniture.
@@rubiconnn fwiw u mean the ceo making over 300x of their employees salary .
The 10-100x was last century …..
grt review
I think died a long time ago. As soon as they lower interest rates, inflation will return with a vengeance. After that, you will have double digit interest rates.
on the short or long end?
long end, but the fed will follow with the short.
Take profits on stocks? When did you buy any?
A lot of other experts are saying the inflation is going to kick back upwards. And exactly that happened the last inflation report, both in Canuckistan and US.
They seem to be on the money
What a great interview
Are home and car buyers holding off buying because of ‘interest rates’ or because they believe that interest rates will be lower in the near/medium term? Second, I’m thrilled that inflation appears to be coming down, but aren’t most ordinary mortals still grappling with a loss of buying power of about 20% in the past 18 months? Is the government, banks, airlines, vacation destinations, businesses and restaurants giving that back?
I only own one stock, and that's VOO. I sure as hell hope we have a downturn, continue to buy VOO every single day the market is open like I've been doing for twenty years.
Great episode!
weimar was transitory too
Luv "DR" The Wise Doc of Marco! He has some of the best and most timely applied sayings.
I wish someone would ask Rosie about whether or not the historically low equity risk premium might be a reflection in the markets perception of the risk of inflation. If you look at the risks of bonds vs the risks of equities, you could argue equities are an insurance policy against inflation from a portfolio insurance perspective whereas bonds are an insurance policy against reduced future cash flows. And if that risk premium declines, that could imply that insurance against inflation has become increasingly expensive because of market expectations (I know he thinks the risk is low relative to market expectations). And you might conversely conclude that as the equity risk premium becomes larger then the risk of declining future cash flows is perceptibly higher to markets. That's the way I think about that metric any how. Basically if the margins are thin inflation risk is perceptibly high to the market and when margins are fat deflation risk is perceptibly high to the market, and of course as always it falls upon the investor to manage their portfolio balance and equal, over or under weight either asset class to tilt as to their expectation regarding the inaccuracy of market perception. Or otherwise follow some alternative strategy when weighting asset classes.
Iv gamed the stock market and am going to be a self-made millionaire in no time
Hi David, the US Proposed budget for 2024 is $6.9 trillion of which $1.9 trillion is discretionary spending. Currently the Democrats and the Republicans are arguing over reducing discretionary spending by $400 billion. Even though fiscal spending is less efficient that’s still a lot of money… could the fiscal spending prop up the US economy for another year?
Are people spending more at Christmas if the weather is a bit warmer? I can understand frigid weather keeping them from shopping but someone in the snow belt deciding that 30 degrees is too cold to go out but 36 is money out the pocket is just dumb.
Good economic review of fundamentals by DR. Don't much to disagree but the implications for financial markets are mixed. His view hinges on the inflation outlook being driven by global deflationary pressures and thus will need to be addressed by further central bank easing in the face of economic weakness (i.e., recession). I can imagine some actions that may delay this deflation pressure - basically structural cost pressures in the labor and energy markets making inflation sticky and causing markets to reprice T-bond yields higher. I also imagine the Fed and UST will collude to prevent any major repricing in asset markets. i.e., crashes or booms. These variables would tend to push David's scenario farther into the future, making predictions more uncertain. The general lesson of the past 20 years in US markets is that the reckoning always takes longer than expected and then happens in a flash followed by a sharp rebound. One can only prepare and be way too early or way too late. Frankly, I think one has to keep in the game of the Mag 7 and AI or watch years of positive returns potentially slip away. Warren Buffett never loses money in the long run, but he did finally have to chase AAPL.
Sick and tired of “professionals” that call price rise inflation . Inflation is money printing
ted letting david get away with some spin.
Sorry, but this guy doesn't understand inflation. The 1970s inflation was largely caused by the quadrupling of oil prices at that time. The interest rate cuts only came after the oil price was stabilized. He knows that, so why doesn't he mention it?
He also thinks that western demographics support a deflationary outlook. How on Earth he can convince himself that a rapidly retiring workforce, and soaring dependency ratio, adds up to a deflationary outlook is just plain lunacy.
It seems to me that David is married to his deflation conviction, and no amount of evidence will persuade him that he is wrong - least of all a rising price level!
Perhaps one of the Deflationary sides of the coin is Demand on a limited Supply.
As demographics decline - an aging population with less younger replacements buying stuff like houses and cars and furniture because older folk have all this already, a drop in Demand will eventually occur.
All those Big houses with less Buyers coming in.
THAT scenario is looming. That would be deflationary on the Demand side in a cause for Inflation.
On the other hand less workers unless AI etc replaces the shortage of future workers push on Labor Costs which is Inflationary - more money. But eventually Production begins to have less Demand.
Perhaps you disagree. Or this is too far ahead for you.
Cheers.
The 1970s inflation was born out of the money printing machine going brrrrr in the 60s due to the Vietnam War, inflation is always a monetary phenomenon
@@johnbirman5840 Sorry, you're not understanding the demographics point. Older people do spend less, but they still spend, and when they reach nursing home age they consume a lot of resources. At the same time, once they retire, their productivity falls to zero.
All that adds up to more consumption and less production, which is inflationary.
On the point of fewer young people, yes, that is deflationary for a time. However, a low birth rate eventually shows up as fewer people entering the workforce, which again hits productivity. And again that is inflationary.
Finally, don't assume that supply is fixed. The lag effect of all the interest rate rises will likely cause contraction via redundancies and bankruptcies. A supply contraction would be inflationary (stagflation is already a reality in Europe).
I didn't even mention the effects of the insane amounts of deficit spending, but that is also highly inflationary.
Thanks for you thoughts.
@@jimmymac7626 I see you are quoting Milton Friedman. Friedman also included deficit spending as a driver of inflation, and we have never seen anything like what we are currently witnessing.
On the 1970s, I agree that govt. spending had gotten out of control due to various factors, but that is hardly unusual.
I still regard the oil shock as being the real stand out factor that drove inflation back then.
If you listen to Rosie you will not make money. Period.
In today's dynamic financial landscape, the stock market continues to present a kaleidoscope of opportunities, marked by technological advancements and evolving economic patterns. As investors navigate through this terrain, characterized by both traditional equities and innovative sectors, the allure of cryptocurrencies emerges as a captivating frontier. This digital asset class, with its unique blend of technology and finance, offers a new realm of potential, inviting investors to explore beyond conventional markets and delve into the promising world of crypto..... Amidst this the insights of a knowledgeable guide like Linda Wilburn can be crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of cryptocurrency investments has been the key to understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends...managed to grow a nest egg of around 4 b,tc to a decent 21 b,tc in the space of a few months.
She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@Lindawilburn
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary.
Nice, I was just hodling before I found Wilburn. In my opinion she is the very best out there.
Linda Wilburn strategy has normalized winning trades for me and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.
Another episode with Ted" Boy, did I get the market wrong in 2023" and David " Boy, have I gotten the market wrong over the last 3 years" Rosenberg. Just go back and listen to both of them.
Someday he'll be correct.
Is there enough egg in the world to get on those boys faces?
They don't have a crystal ball anymore than you do. But they're damn sure smart enough to err on the side of wealth preservation vs risky speculation.
Lol
That's why we try to think for ourselves.
Rossie sounds convincing but he was dead wrong last year and never accepted it or corrected his outlook. Not good when you start to double and triple down in an angrier and angrier tone. That's OK for the Harry Dents of this world, but not for the great David Rosenberg.
I don't know what world you live in but everyone I know who rents has had at least one increase in the last 2 years
You should be in uranium and gold. That is it.
Weather doesn't make people spend more. And there is no climate change.
Okie dokie 😂
Okie Dopey @@VeganTrove
Please don’t prove your stupidity by taking .
Climate changes do exist , 99% of all scientific paper says so and anyone living in the North experience it everyday .
News flash , first time I saw no snow untill January in the past 50 years in Canada this year ….
doomsdaysayers will be burnt. dont listen to traders/listen to investors. noone can time the market..certainly not these guys.
Read my lips..i only say this once..There will be no Stock Market Crash...No Recession
until the end of 2024!!!!!!!!!
Why does anyone tune in for Rosenberg? He missed a 50% NAS rally in 2023 and a decent rally already in 2024! Rosenberg is a fail.
Oh great.... Another climate nut!
I saw awhile ago on UA-cam (I know....) but anyway, a few years ago, a video that focused on the 50s/60s and earlier when Global Cooling was all the rage in the “world” of Climate Experts. A lot of actual newspaper clippings etc.
One of the solutions offered was to line the South Pole with black plastic to melt the polar cap and Save the Planet!
My mum was part of the Global Gang back in the 60s who all believed the Coming Ice Age was soon here.
“The Population Bomb” Paul Ehlrich had Everyone falling off the planet decades ago; Y2K; Atomic Wars; Oil should’ve run out too; Everyone frozen up; and now Everyone burnt to a frizzle.
All predicted by Experts - and everyone of them Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
If you had disbelieved every one of them - you would have been the only one Right.
Oh...I nearly forgot the Covid Catastrophe that wasn’t.
So everybody you don’t (fully) agree is a nut? Seems a little shortsighted.