Why Saudi Arabia is doomed
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- Опубліковано 3 жов 2024
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Saudi Arabia may seem to many of us to be a country with a golden future. A country with enormous reserves of wealth, collected from almost a century of trading in oil and holding a monopoly on the world's hydrocarbon market. BUT... I would argue that the enormous economic power the Saudis built on the hydrocarbon market has doomed their country, as well as those of their neighbors in Qatar or the UAE. The holding of such a monopoly stagnated political development and therefore left these countries in a position of being ill-prepared for a world after oil. To showcase this, I will however take you to a different place first. The Congo
Why Nations Fail by Darren Acemoglu and James Robinson
A world History of Slavery by Milton Meltzer
Conquerors by Roger Crowly
Impromptu no. 4 in A flat major, D. 899
Preludes, Op. 28 - No. 15 'Raindrop'
Ballade no. 1 in G minor, Op. 23
You might be interested in this video too: • The Origins of the Gre...
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Pinned comment reserved for correcting potential mistakes, adressing critizisms, and other releated points:
1: "How is Iran not impacted by this" - Ironically the sanctions against Iran mean that iran will in the long term be in a better position than the Saudis, because Iran is forced through the sanctions to diversify its economy in advance.
Never been this early
Love
Hell yeah you made none!
I SUPPORT THE EU FROM POLAND
i am a mistake
I read a quote somewhere by an Arab oil tycoon who said in effect "My grandpa rode camels, my father rode a car, I ride a Ferrari and my grandson will ride a camel."
That was the UAE's Shaikh Rashid
@@hamza-8978 Thanks for the info!
Ride them all
@@hamza-8978 makes sense since the UAE is the least oil dependent gulf country (mostly due to dubai)
@@enderguardian7443 still over 50%
Honestly, I find the most impressive part of this video how you manage to create analogues between centuries; an ancient African Kingdom complacent in its slave wealth and an Arabic Kingdom complacent in its oil wealth. It's an art to make these videos relevant to contemporary forces, and on top of that you manage to communicate the trap of innovation stagnation very well.
Complacency is the death knell of any society: when the leaders stop caring about threats, they doom themselves.
The gulf countries also use slaves!
@Thisis Gettinboring now they’re truly fucked
I mean hey, he’s is not saying hur berder Africans bad. Good videos as usual
And the middle east slave weather as well
As an African, I'm glad people are talking about this dark history of ours. May it be a lesson that evil is not based on race but based on the very nature of human beings and we should all as humanity, not races, learn from the mistakes of our ancestors....
Anyone and everyone is capable of great evil. Its never been exclusive to one group of people and we need to think that way at all times.
@@sillylilstella
Sure, which is why the comment of OP is great...
What's your point?...
Very true. Kudos.
@@zaarkeru3391 What is yours?
@@epajarjestys9981 what about you, what's your angle here?
The sad part is the thing that happened to the Kongo didn't stop there. Dahomey is another example of an African state that almost completely morphed into a militant state that structured itself entirely around the slave trade. Even after the abolition of slavery in Europe, these social, economic, military, and political structures persisted, paralyzing the development of multiple African states in the 19th century.
But recall Dahomey developed in reaction to the Yoruba Empire, a slave trading state catering to northern Africa and the Islamic slave trade, which was itself the successor of the Mali empires, Islamic slave trading regimes. It not only didn't stop there, it didn't start there.
@@mattharcla All of Pre-Modern Africa was involved with the slave trade. Slavery is older than civilization itself and almost universal, hunter gatherers and Neanderthals also practiced slavery.
@@lukejones7164 Yep.
We make slaves of ourselves with our bad habits.
Dahomey was a militaristic slaving state prior to European contact, but they were constrained by the fact that the Oyo Empire sat on their border and cut them off from expanding their slave raids. When the Oyo collapsed, their slaving dramatically increased, as they didn't have to respect the autonomy of the ex-Oyo tributary groups (like themselves), who could now be targeted.
"But you can only see their portraits in Portugal, and some in Brazil"
You showed a painting of an emissary to the Dutch which if I recall correctly is on display in Denmark.
xD are you serious ? whats the name of the guy ? xD
It was to see if someone was paying attention 🧐
I mean I think the point is that the only place you can see a congo king is in a foreign art museum, and pointedly not in the congo
Where in Denmark?
@@fenrirgg Or he made a human flub lol
Only Kraut could make a video about Saudi Arabia that entirely proves his point by talking about the Congo for 12 minutes of the 14 minute runtime.
Excellent content as always. The history major in me adores your use of historical context to construct arguments about the modern day.
thats his signature move now
This comment made me think.
If the video wants to prove SA's future by using Congo as an example, then it needs at least two parts: 1) Why Congo met its fate, and 2) Why SA's case is comparable to Congo's case.
As you mentioned, 12 minutes went to showing part 1), and the remaining 2 minutes went to part 2). That felt a bit disproportionate.
It's easy to draw out parallel between two entities when each entity is huge and complex as a country. It's also easy to draw dissimilarities between these kind of entities. A concrete argument would have to invest much more time showing that the parallels are more dominant than the differences.
This is not saying I disagree with the video, and this is certainly not a critique of how the video is made. I think the video gives a strong argument, but the briefness of part 2 leaves a lot of homework for the casual viewer.
@@zhuofanzhang9974 - The why is pretty obvious with more then enough of the details pointed out. Reliance on one thing and little to no development to any other sector to support the economy when that one thing supporting your economy dries up. As well as the fracturing of society under a cruel and oppressive monarchy. Saudi Arabia is doing the same thing in those regards as to the Congo which is clearly pointed out. The details defer, but they're making the same mistakes more or less.
While I agree with you that this is good content from Kraut I disagree with your first point.
Personally I feel like the historic analogy was unnecessary and this video would have been better as a standalone on Africans continued lack of success and what African nations can do to fix themselves. Although that would have been a much longer video I think it would have been worth it. Frankly I feel like (at least from an American perspective) the explanation of why the gulf states will fail is a dead horse and can be explained in a long sentence. In contrast the origins of social democracy and Greek problems videos are relatively unexplained and the history in them correlates much better than this video. Again from an American perspective.
True. I was even wondering if there was something wrong with the title.
Perhaps the most disturbing part of this for the Congo is that, after the slave trade,
Their wealth was gone
Their nations income was gone
Their social structure and institutions were broken
Their diplomatic importance and influence was gone
All that was left was one of the only investments the monarchy made, the guns. That was all they had left.
Congo is still sitting on billions of dollars worth of resources. They have things they can utilize in the future, if they manage to solve their problems.
@@ItalianIrishguy it is still natural wealth, meaning if they somehow get the equipment to process the gems they will once again be complacent and develop no new industries, plus the extraction of natural resources have a tendency to be carried out by rich foreigners or corrupt officials meaning its likely the people living there wont see a cent of it. I hope they can do it like botswana, but its unlikely
another example for that is Spain, once the silver stopped coming, the nation collapsed and till today, Spain is economically in a precarious situation with a lack of extensive infrastructure
@@hacsakalllar4038 Botswana is a really nice example. But congo has to many foreign meddling going on. the world knows how to meddle there best and they wont quit it.
@@meinschmerz6074 And Botswana had insane luck when they discovered their hidden wealth THEMSELVES, not thorough any foreign neo-colonialism by their former colonizers.
I met a traveler from an antique land,
Who said-“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
I forgot the name of poet.
Percy Bysshe Shelley
The depressing turtle strikes again!
Why “X Country” is doomed could pretty much be a long running series at this point. It also feels like this would apply for most of the OPEC nations. As usual great content.
Why Russia is doomed... Coming soon!
@@daveogfans413 I wouldn't add Russia to that list. As surprising it might sound Russia's economy although mostly reliant on natural resources are quite divers. Moreover, because of the global warming productivity zone is shifting to the north, which includes Siberian planes. That factor sadly makes Russia's economy much more resilient than most of the West's economies except Nordic countries and Canada.
@@sunjarty8521 As great as their wealth of resources are, it's significantly less impressive when the management of said resources is piss poor, as is the case in Russia. Scandinavia and Canada have excellent & good management of their resources, respectively, whereas Russia does not due to their economic structure...far-right authoritarian Oligarchy. They are relatively decent at best, entirely inhospitable at worst. Russia is doomed.
@@sunjarty8521 A lot of assumptions there...
@@ThunderTheBlackShadowKitty Discussion of different management cultures is fascinating to me. In the 1980s, when German and American auto manufacturers were doing collaborations sending Germans to Detroit and sending Americans to (Berlin?), I read a journalist's quote "In terms of management style, Germans appear hard on the Outside but are actually quite soft and humanitarian on the Inside, while American may appear soft and humanitarian on the Outside, they are actually hard, ruthless and more brutal on the Inside.
I remember hearing from my parents that my grandfather nearly moved his family to Saudi Arabia from the United States in the 1970s, as they were apparently facing a crushing lack of engineers at the time, and would have paid him very well.
Apparently my grandmother did her research, learning about all the legal restrictions that would be placed on her and her children, as well as the isolated nature of their daily lives as you allude to at the end of this video. And she put her foot down on what was otherwise pretty much a done deal.
I'd always figured she made the right choice, but watching this video, the connections you make between Congolese history and the Saudis' present, and getting more of the larger context for why the country is the way it is... She may have *really* dodged a bullet for her family.
Edit: Typo
she may have quite literally dodged a bunch of bullets with that decision. for herself and for you and your family.
could have worked there for a couple of years and then moved back, you could have been wiping your ass with gold leaf right now bud
@@marvin19966 It's not the only reason to not work for them. Part of the reason they pay so much is because more people than you'd think have enough of a conscience to not work for a militaristic oil state that's part of what's killing our planet and destabilizing worldwide governments.
They need to pay extra because only a few people are so depraved that they'd be willing to do that over a normal job. Everyone who works for big oil knows that they're selling their souls to the metaphorical devil here.
For one of the seminars I had to attend to complete my chemical engineering degree, we had a guest speaker who had done chemical engineering work in multiple countries abroad, one of which was Saudi Arabia. Being a foreign woman, she was given supervision over a bunch of Saudi women who worked there. Apparently, their laws determined that those Muslim women were not allowed to work under a man, but a foreign, non-Muslim woman was. Strangely, the speaker didn’t seem all that disturbed by it. It just came off like a fascinating quirk. I can’t imagine being that comfortable living in such a society, even as the man that I am.
I’d feel guilty not only for being so heavily privileged because of my gender but also my white skin. My best friend is Bangladeshi, and her grandfather worked in Saudi Arabia in a respectable position, not as a slave like other Bangladeshis trapped there and in the other Gulf Countries. He made decent money by his standards, but when he left, he was replaced with a white British man who made six times as much as he did. It’s insane that we let a country, which we deal with constantly for our oil, get away with such backwards systems.
As a middle eastern myself, I gotta admit, she really did dodge a bullet for her family.
My family and I lived in Saudi Arabia almost continuously for 14 years, my father worked for the Saudi military through a UK and my mother worked for various Saudi Universities. This country was my home for the majority of my childhood and teenage years and the experiences gained there inform my thoughts on Saudi Arabia.
I think the most important point in this video is how slavery in the Kongo (present day Northern Angola) created a sort of inevitable collapse of the country, it was just too reliant on slavery, and too reliant on the secondary effects it gave. And Saud’s great oil reservoirs place Saudi Arabia in a similar situation, and that there is no possible way for Saudi Arabia to wean itself from oil, nor for it to remain as the country we know should oil run out. The problem is not just that of hydrocarbons and how it dominates the country’ s economy, it is that for the past 50 years, the entire society has been built around what oil provides and that the country does not seem to realise that it needs to diversify completely from oil in order to be able to provide for itself.
At this point the Saudis know that they need something else, Saudi Vision 2030, is their answer to organise the government into pushing less oil reliant industries. If you look at Saudi exports, however, apart from products directly related to oil and oil refinement, the next largest export by a large margin is heavy metals. The largest of these heavy metals is aluminium, the problem with aluminium is that in order to refine aluminium you require petroleum coke, an oil refining by-product and a lot of power, provided by oil generators, and it is a similar case with their steel refinement. Saudi is expanding their industrial capacity but only by utilising what they already make with oil at this time.
However, the largest problem with Saudi Arabia and why it will not survive is to do with their current emigration and immigration policies. The reason these are a problem are that Saudi has a work ethic problem in that native born Saudis are given a life from birth that is comfortable and that continues into adulthood. They are given sinecures, government jobs and salaries, while they import manual workers from poor countries, cheap labourers from India, Philippines and specialised jobs mainly from the West. It has worked alright for the past 40-50 years, the problem is that Saudi Arabia is not as financially attractive anymore, the salaries are down, they have introduced taxes and have failed to make the country more hospitable to Westerners to counteract salary decreases. Everyone has heard of the issues with the cheap labour they bring; they are treated like slaves in Qatar, UAE and Saudi, and for the most part this is ignored by these workers because the pay is good, but once the pay is not good these cheap workers will stop arriving and will start leaving. These two problems combined means that Saudi Arabia is going to suffer a massive worker shortage including, perhaps most importantly in the oil fields and security forces. This problem is made worse in that, the Saudis who want to work, who are motivated and educated leave the country for a free society and better prospects. And it is not just the males who are able to leave. Saudi female graduates or those at university, the half who are actually motivated all go to the USA or the UK to finish their education and stay there. It is a massive brain drain that is not even realised outside the country because there are so many westerners masking it. Its why the new Crown Prince, MBS, has tried to reform the laws so much as part of Saudi Vision 2030, especially in regard to women, because they are leaving in their droves, and with them go their bank accounts, the money spent in Saudi Arabia, their children and Saudi’s future.
It almost having a sharia state with a form of Islam that even other traditional Muslims find crazy isn’t a good way to run thing society wise.
They have a chance as long as they have a long-lived and visionary ruler!
The question is whether they can wean themselves off of oil, which they might not be able to do in time.
Saudi here you are right if only things were easier to fix.....
@@starmaker75
Plus a form of islam that sees any other branch or sect as heretical does not make friends with it’s neighbors.
Excellent video. Those who are angered by the European slave trade rarely acknowledge the role of Africans in the practice. (My biological father is a West African barrister and is thoroughly of the opinion Africa is still selling its people's future to the highest bidders - China and Russia this century)
Howard W. French - Born in blackness, Africa, africans and the making of the modern world, 1471 - WW2
@nbafanboy8146 I'd argue they have it worse. My sister in law is Brazilian and South American's are very much expected to go to university, be highly skilled, function just like other citizens of a developed economy but under crazy regimes absolutely corrupt with minimal legal rights and practically zero freedom of speech. Touting BRICS is the salvation of the economy because western $$£ is bad but not fully explaining its simply an excerise to sell China resources at below open market prices and boost Russia's ability to access foreign currency now they've put a match to their energy based economy by effectively ending future gas and oil sales to Europe. (Pipelines already under construction by alternative suppliers and ink dry on billion € deals with Qatar, Algeria etc)
The slave trade wouldn’t have been so lucrative had the Africans not helped and done so with pleasure with the Europeans
@@myplan8166 Thank you! Just read review, looked through it, and ordered it. (This is what I like about some UA-cam sites: Good conversations, learning place ... even if the video author may not always support it.)
@@josepha.r5839 this book widened my horizon about that topic, lots of facts and numbers and new points of view. Very well written, too.
Right, you already ordered it ...
A similar effect was seen in Spain where the vast gold wealth from the new world dincentivized development of its local economy and squandered on pan European religious wars, and led to Spain having an economy backward relative to the rest of Europe until the beginning of the 20th century.
It was silver more than gold, but that's a minor point. A bigger one was that "Inflation" wasn't as well understood an idea.
Even for a hard, unadulterated commodity currency, sometimes the money printer can, indeed, go brrrrrrr.
It's still backwards
Even today. Especially, if you consider the head start it had.
I've been telling people this for years but they never want to hear it. Anyone with ambition went to the americas to loot and pillage. The imported "money" drove hyperinflation, crushing tradesmen and destroying the banking system. Not only was their no reason to innovate, there was no one left to do so.
Not quite, the spanish empire tried to modernise on the 18th century, and it kinda succeeded, specially in Mexico were manufacturing was overtaking mining as the main economic sector. I always say that had the spanish empire remained together until at least the 20th century it would have had time to reform and industrialize.
I've read the Lincoln Republicans argue against corporations existing for a while. A lot of their arguments were that an economy structured around the strategic control of property can devalue labour across the board, and citizens become less empowered by becoming less and less relevant to the functioning of the government's funding requirements.
I thought the Saudis were a very extreme example of this, but it's grim to realize the slave trade worked to create a similar state too. In the end, the message is that it's a stupid game that wins you a stupid prize.
Many modern socialists argue the same thing
I'd argue it's hard for someone *not* to have control of property. In capitalism, it's private individuals or corporations. In a monarchy or dictatorship, it's the king/leader or lords/warlords. In socialism or communism, or even many interpretations of anarchism, it's "the people" on paper, but really it's in control of some planning committee made up of government officials, be they a local council or some central government department.
Winning the Resource lottery is something all nations dream of, but so few handle well when they do.
@@Croz89
Exactly, capitalism sucks, but the alternatives end in dictatorship. A properly regulated free market is the compromise.
@@Croz89 well that's the great debate. However, I'd argue that while someone probably does have to own things in order to produce goods, someone ELSE with equal power needs to have crack oversight of that property and what it produces in order to ensure the safety and human dignity of all involved.
Production and conservation and resources should be put to use FOR the vast majority, rather than the elite few.
The world never really had a great handle on that through out our history, that's obvious, but I'd argue the states and China and Russia have really lost the plot in terms or material wealth for the people.
To be honest, this is a masterclass in educating, it had me enraptured throughout and got its message across with grim effectiveness
Except it is sadly a fairytale, i get the massage from the congo past but to say saudi will become the next congo without enough evidence is simply dumb, because saudi owns the entirety of aramco, it owns some of blackrock, vanguard, starbucks, apple,amazon, visa, google, Nintendo, microsoft and uber.. and many more… how could it be the next congo if its this well stabled ? We are not the us as we dont even have debt + more than 40 T$ in resources and investment… the next congo is the us.
Wow, the story of the Kongo is a sad and haunting tale for the Gulf states to hopefully learn from.
The great lesson of history is that no one learns from history.
They wont, as long as they have "Allahs blessing".
@@blenderbanana Yep.
@@blenderbanana shut
@@nathanseper8738 no
Short yet concise video, I genuinly didn't know that the Kongo Kingdom was that involved in the slave trade but guess everyday one learns something new. Keep the quality up Kraut, ¡Arriba!
Yes I see arrows pointing up to cameroon, I would like to see research pointing that out.
Yeah, it's one of those things that gets forgotten. What Europe did to those places was far more insidious than simply and directly oppressing people: they indoctrinated the locals into parasitic social structures that are VERY hard to remove once created. This was also the case in India - small local lords would be hired by the East India company to help them subjugate the larger populace. Ironically, it's often easier to simply spin a narrative of "Well, we oppressed them but we don't anymore" than to acknowledge how incredibly and thoroughly European influence has rotted these places to the core.
Fly high flying tonk, soar to the skies
Very, very small nitpick Kraut. However, the first European plantation economy was established by the kingdom of Castile in the Canary Islands, which were colonized nearly a century before São Tomé was. This colony also employed slave labor to manufacture its crops, similarly to the New World colonies in the Caribbean, Brazil, and Southern US. Also, I would love to hear your thoughts (Video, comment, or otherwise) on the differences between national identities in the New and Old worlds, how those identities formed and how they influence the states of those regions respectively. Thank you for reading this,
-An average Kraut Enjoyer
The Canary Islands Dragon's Blood Tree almost went extinct due to blatant exploitation of them on those Islands.
Madeira island was probably a couple of years before that, but who's counting
@@olioxx They we’re known since Roman times but were settled by Europeans after the canaries were
@@pimppimpproductions6497 Hard comparing the two when the Canaries were conquered and then settled while the Madeira archipelago was merely settled
@@miguelpadeiro762 Very true
Came for Saudi Arabia
Stayed for Poruguesse Kongo
This video emotionally engaged me.... up until 10:43 came and Ssethzeentach's face rolled in and I can't stop laughing.
We all knew that our favorite warlords' past would eventually catch up to him.
Glad I wasn't alone lmao
Hey hey people
“Hey hey people, Sseth here. Today, I’ll be destabilizing Africa…”
interesting omission of German colonialism in the still right after this image created by the Austrian presenter
The fact that 75% of this video has nothing to do with Saudi Arabia yet it all relates is the magic I love about this channel, thank you again my sir
I had to keep looking back title to make sure I'm watching the right video..lol
It’s interesting really that Saudi Arabia has tried to diversify their economy in a way (by pandering to tourists & they’ve thrown big money at sporting events too such as Joshua vs Uysk 2) but it’s really not working.
It seems they kind of know they’re in trouble & vision 2030 was launched for this. As it stands though 3/4 of their budget is dependent on oil exports & if this doesn’t change soon, they’ll be doomed.
Great video as always though & I liked the historical comparison. The political fallout of a Saudi collapse will be immense & a real moment for this century.
the saudis know this since the 60s its not some great revelation
Are they not one of the biggest tech stock holders ?
The money selling oil is been invested. I feel MBS is a more forward thinking leader. But only time will tell I guess.
And the problem is that their efforts at diversification are approaching the problem from the wrong direction. Tourism is not a very reliable pillar for an economy. As climate change worsens and Saudi Arabia becomes less hospitable, tourism will become even more unreliable. A diversified economy requires a society where investment, starting up businesses, and education becomes a worthwhile and safer endeavor. Part of that requires creating a safer, fairer, more inclusive society, as well as establishing a rule of law while limiting the powers of the elite. Of course, Saudi Arabia is currently centralizing ever more power into the absolute ruler, reacting even more harshly to criticism, and pushing utterly absurd megaprojects for civic development that always turn out to really be corruption for the rich. Notably, Saudi Arabia's military reflects Saudi Arabian society itself--fractured, unfair, unsupportive of the whole, and utterly lacking in innovation or forward-thinking (not because they are incapable, but because they are stuck in a society in which the ones who WANT to improve things have no safe means to do so).
@@Isura101 true, but they develop nothing domestically. Holding stocks only benefits those individuals who own those stocks, and no nation of stockbrokers can survive.
Saudi Arabia's current initiatives to modernise its economy mostly amount to vanity projects, Saudi princes and sheikhs trying to one-up eachother. They're impressed by towers of gold, vast gleaming displays of wealth, but none really care to lay the real foundation of a modern state such as agriculture or industry.
@@Isura101 630 billion is not that much if split over a population of millions. hell even if split on just the saud family. each member would have something like 2,5 million. sure that is a lot of money. But not enough to live as big as they have by any means.
It's amazing that the 11 minute build up of a 14 minute video works just that well to convey the point made both in the title, and foreshadowed in that first quote. Artistic excellence.
Interesting! I always thought SsethTzeentach was mostly problematic for himself and not that much for the Kongo...
Please explain, I sense a very elaborate joke in here but I am autistic and not really native in Memesh
A warm thanks to the many members of the merchants guild.
@@LoliLikesPedobear One of the warlord pictures during the Congo segment is also a picture used by popular UA-camr SsethTzeentach. Look him up and you’ll recognize which one.
“Hey hey people, Sseth here with slave trade simulator”
hey-hey people
Saudi Arabian hydrocarbon reserves are likely going to be depleted within the next 50 years. Since 1980, Saudi Aramco has been owned entirely by the Saudi government. Following the centralization of the industry in 1987 under the control of Saudi Aramco, the official crude oil reserves increased from just over 170 billion barrels of crude to well over 200 billion barrels of crude. This shift went against the consensus estimates of all western oil majors at the time. BPD (barrels per day) has remained stagnant since the early days of OPEC. Regardless of the market incentive structure, it seems as if Saudi Aramco lacks the capacity to break the 9.5 million BPD barrier. Even when engaged in a price war, enjoying peak profitability, and preferred shipping/insurance rates, they still have failed consistently to breach the 10 million BPD barrier.
Despite government figures, no one truly knows how much more hydrocarbon can be pulled from the modern Congo’s coffers. The current attempts at diversification have failed miserably. In practical terms, Saudi Arabia is little more than a joint stock venture masquerading itself as a nation-state.
Could improved extraction rewrite the amount of recoverable oil?
It may be a moot point. Simply put if we're gonna go of hydrocarbons in the next 50 years globally, it's in Saudi's interests to sell its profitable reserves in that time - and let everyone else be stuck with their now worthless tar. I would assume a system based entirely on oil profits, will be doing that math better than any of us.
Oil has been "running out" for as long as I remember. Yet somehow new reserves are discovered, new extraction methods invented, and it gets cheaper to produce and hence buy oil with every passing year (barring outside factors like the Russo-Ukrainian War).
It isn't as much a question of oil running out as oil staying relevant as an energy source. Oil is increasingly going to be replaced by natural gas and renewables when it comes to fuel and electricity production. Its main uses will be limited to lubricant production and petrochemical products, which will see demand and hence prices decrease sharply. Countries like Qatar are going to be able to somewhat offset this by switching to exporting LNG, but Saudi Arabia can't do that as it doesn't have the resources or the capability to export gas on the same level as its oil.
"Diversification" as it's being called, has certain prerequisites. Saudi Arabia neither has the well educated population that is needed for high-tech industries, nor a cheap labor pool to be able to become a cheap production hub for goods and services. Its climate and "lack of history" compared to neighbors like Egypt and Iran doesn't make it a particularly suitable destination for tourism either. Its population is too high to become the next Monaco, and its too low to become the next China, and the current lavish lifestyles and culture they are accustomed to won't let them become the next Korea. Doesn't take a genius to figure out it's not particularly well suited to become the next bread basket of the world either.
Their only way out is to lower and keep their population at levels that can be supported by the only ace up their sleeves, their "religious tourism". They have a customer base of nearly 2 billion that is rapidly increasing, most of whom will at least travel once to SA during their lifetime, with many coming back for seconds and thirds. By catering to their needs and possibly developing an industry around producing at least some of the more highly demanded goods by the pilgrims, they have a shot.
@@MeanMachine1992 "Its climate and "lack of history" They spent centuries erasing their vibrant Pre-Islamic history and even their own Islamic history. The MET was in negotiations for decades to borrow and display thier pre-Islamic period pottery and pagan sculptures! Cuz nothin was there before 600 AD.
Yeah, this. This is a huge part of why Norway has had so much more success with its oil than most other oil-bearing countries. Turns out, just lavishing all that wealth on the rich and nobility is a huge waste. Investing that currency into egalitarian infrastructure is a much better option - you have to use the money to make that country a desirable place to live and work before you can ever hope to diversify. Saudi Arabia isn't going to do that - the nobles will drain the state for everything it has before ceding any humanitarian liberties or using its wealth for purposes that aren't self-aggrandizing.
Slavery also doomed the US South. Why invent better ways to harvest crops or build factories when you have slaves? ~150 years after the US Civil War, the former slave states lag in every quality of life metric compared to states without slavery.
True, after the failure that was the Reconstruction Period, the South was left to it's own devices when it comes to innovation...
That comment is factually incorrect.
Kraut "liked it" ... indicating a lack of knowledge and understanding.
@@thomasblue7667 what's your rebuttal or counter-argument?
@@Belioyt well immediately it hasn’t been 200 years since the civil war
@@HSDJun That was actually my direct point and I was just going to let it go, but always better from a casual observer ...
When Emperor Leopold of Belgium's army invaded the Congo, it was not made a colony. The land, its people and everything became his personal possession. It was part of his personal estate. This tyrant killed whole tribes if only one rebelled.
It was made a colony, of Leopold's, just not of Belgium.
The African Holocaust. 10 million killed. 10s of millions mutilated.
This is one of a kind content. Every time I see a Kraut upload, I get giddy imagining tucking into it later when I’m alone. Thank you for sharing such fantastic analyses of history/politics/sociology.
Lol same
I love the hypothetical out of this. To the people of Ayutthaya, one of the greatest commercial cities in Southeast Asia, in 1757, 10 years before being destroyed by the Burmese, they were in the midst of a golden age only for it to end with a Burmese military invasion. How would they know how rapid would they be destroyed, for the Burmese chronicles characterized the fall of Ayutthaya as comparable to the end of a Buddhist era, or a Ragnarok. How could the people of Pompeii in 78 AD have known their unexpected and dire fates just a year later? Nothing last forever.
Baker, Chris, Phongpaichit, Pasuk. "A History of Ayutthaya: Siam in the Early Modern World".
Or even the burmese, little they knew they will be turned into a colony with their royals banished in the jungles of dankaranya just after they reached their zenith.
@@cs-mi8ur Yeah.
I've yet to discover another person who can make history as interesting as you. You sir are sharing for free such high quality educational videos I would not hesitate to pay for them.
Take a look at Dan Carlin's Hardcore History.
sub to the patreon
1- Congo was a colony, Saudi never been a Colony.
2- Congo wasn’t unified before the colonizer, Saudis unified the tribes before oil.
3- Congo is an embryonic nation from the colonizer, the Saudis have 1400 years of Islamic pride with Islam’s holy sites.
4- Congo is a republic state, Saudis are a Sharia law Kingdom.
Not a fare comparison to be honest.
None of those differences change the central problem that Saudi Arabia shares with the Congo
I remember listening to a podcast a few years ago about what it's like to work in Saudi Arabia that aligns with what this video said. They spoke to a young guy who went to university and wanted to start his own business, but to friends and family he was treated like he was crazy. He said that Saudi Arabia, anyone with prospects like him was supposed to get a very cushy government job where he would only have to even turn up for work one or two days a week if he felt like it and get paid handsomely for doing it. Trying to actually be productive and start a business was treated as a risky venture that was almost certainly going to hurt financially. Its like how parents in the west might react if their child says they're going to try to make it as a professional poet.
Sounds a lot like India lol. There are literally people with phds trying to get a job as a gardener in the public sector. Despite this, majority of Indians are in the private sector because getting a government job is near impossible without the right connections. A lot of young people really just waste their 20s in vain trying to get government jobs instead of getting a regular job and gaining experience.
they probably told him he was crazy because he doesnt have an income to support his business and would be in debt and get his life ruined if he couldnt make it the first few months with no income to support his business but if you have a good income poeple will support you to start your own business which is what i've already done and i've had all the support from everyone i know
Hello, i am saudi so i know from first hand experience that while work ethic here isn’t top class, it is not that bad as u put it i never heard of someone taking 5 days off every week in a government job, quite the opposite government jobs demands u work especially in later years, as for the private business sector, everyone here work a job after college to gather enough funds to start a business, but no one starts one off college immediately and i dont think anyone does that anywhere in the world, i know for certainty im glad my brother opened a business with his friend after 20 years of governmental job and now his business is pretty much a passive income for him since he started with good experience and a big headstart in term of money, but private business are hit or miss and never as certain as government jobs, so unless u can afford to gamble no one will start a business before saving up.
sounds like generalization of a whole country of people based on 3rd hand information.
@@rami8896 In America, government jobs are kinda seen as safe but only decently paying jobs. Those who start their own businesses and/or suceed are highly revered.
13:40 "... social contract that guarantees that they will be left alone as long as they do so"
Heh, that was like that here in Russia from 2000 to 2011. Economy grew, society didn't take part in politics and regime was soft. Then in 2011, when economy growth stagnated (resource export based economy has it limits) civil society started to ask questions and demand political and economical reforms. What did regime do? Since they coudnt reform (=give away part of their power), they went jingo mode and annexed Crimea in 2014. Instead of economy growth they started to "sell" revanshism, traditionlism and patriotism to the public. It gave some temporary support but crimean effect was mostly out in 2019. To boost support Putin decided started a new quick and victorious war in Ukraine. You see how it is going.
So, same story is possible with Saudi aswell. When green economy finally arrives, we might see very aggresive and extremists SA. ISIS style?
Very interesting observation. It seems the world is just becoming a worse place.
KSA is already starting to turn less religious and more nationalist. I think when the oil wealth begins drying up they may ally closer with the Israelis and start barking at Qatar, Iran and Iraq.
That or the Saudi state will collapse back into Hejaz and Nejd
How friggin obtuse can one be . Hilarious.
@@TheSonOfDumb Wait untill it will happen with China. When they will become really externally agressive due to internal problems . Rus-UA war will be viewed as a Spain civil war - a prologue of a future catastrophe
@@ArawnOfAnnwn doesn't matter. Putin saw an opportunity to improve geopolitical situation and rating and did it.
The art in these videos keep improving and improving. Also facinating to learn about something that I've never even heard about
"They ran out of jews.." There's a line you don't hear very often, 3:03
I cannot comprehend how this channel doesn't get millions of new viewers every year.
Brutally simple yet precise to the bone, as usual and boom! Another great video. Congrats.
UA-cam hasn't been kind to history channels ever since the adpocalypse
Just wait for few month, every video that has "Saudi" in their title alwasy get million views. Especially if the video is biased, lying, vilifying, shallow.
@@FitraRahim ive noticed that alot with the title baiting and still cannot understand why it works to get millions of views when Saudi is mentioned.
Your story of the west African slave trade is fascinating, and how this fate would occur for the Arab gulf states. Incidentally, the same fate happened to east Africa, who had its own slave trade, at the centre of this trafficking was Somalia, like Congo, the east African kingdoms traded with Portugal, since much of Africa fell to Portuguese influence as part of the treaty of Tordesillas. These kingdoms prospered, particularly Somalia, which had extravagant wealth, lavish palaces, and a merchant fleet not unlike the Carthaginian navy of old, and like the Congo the slave trade destabilised Somalia, as clans and cartels fought for control of human trafficking, creating a legacy of domestic strife and foreign interference, finally like Congo, nothing remains of the ostentatious prosperity Somalia once enjoyed, as for Saudi Arabia, it will not be alone, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait will suffer the same fates.
hey, do you have book recommendations on this for me?
@@Kraut_the_Parrot You could try reading "The East African Slave Trade: The History and Legacy of the Arab Slave Trade and the Indian Ocean Slave Trade" by Charles River Editors, it's a unique book that gave me a new perspective of African civilizations and economics, I didn't know Somalia was very rich and powerful, only a few artefacts remain of the once great powerhouse.
@@Fusilier7 thank you for the book recommendation
I think, when discussing East Africa, Oman's historic role in Zanzibar, and the neighboring polities that conducted those slave raids similar to the Kongo in the African Great Lakes Region, shouldn't be underestimated
Holy Woah. I just looked up Charles River Editor, and the catalog is incredible! Thank You, so much for sharing that!
Their like Curiosity Stream, but woth books!
In defence of the Saudis and all resource-extractive countries including my own (Australia with it's iron ore), it's difficult to excel in other industries due to 'Dutch disease'. World demand for the resource bids your exchange rate higher relative to others, giving the resource-poor countries an advantage, especially in manufacturing. When the Dutch found north sea oil, their manufacturing industry became uncompetitive due to this problem, hence the name.
Dutch prosperity was not the result of finding oil in the North Sea; it was the result of exploiting the 11th largest natural gas field ever discovered: the Groningen gas field.
@@edpatel6929 And, like clockwork, the local population was exploited to some degree, as the resources were more important than their interests. This is a current scandal within our government, albeit less severe in what kind of misdeeds were done, compared to colonisation by a foreign power.
I care about the way we play this when it comes to future rare earth metal mines in the north of scandinavia.
Norway found the answer: parking ressource money in a public investment fund under independent management, which invests it in foreign business.
I can't wait to see that HORRIFIC regime, and that HORRIFIC culture, to crumble. It won't happen for many decades to come so I won't see it, but maybe, just maybe. They make me sick. They have so much power, yet they have nothing to offer, at all. Only oil. They import their engineers, doctors, they send their young to study abroad bc they have NOTHING to show as any kind of achievement. About time they rode camels again. You should see how arrogant they are.
Most Dutchies, like myself, have never heard of this 'Dutch Disease'. It hasn't affected the people in the Netherlands in any way shape or form. Just thought that you should know, as it seems to be the basis for your argument.
Lesson: don't put your eggs on one basket, even if those said basket are very profitable at the moment.
Put all your Eggs in the Pyramids lol
No.
The lesson is, don't prey on your peers.
"Go as long as you can without mentioning the name of the country the video is on" challenge. World Record Holder: Kraut
Me at 11 minutes: Wow, this video is almost 80% done and hasn’t even mentioned Saudi Arabia. I wonder how he’ll wrap this up in 3 minutes…
Me at 12 minutes: Oh. I see.
same
As soon as the reason for the downfall of the Kongo Kingdom was attributed to its dependence on a one-trick economy, the connection to Saudi Arabia was clear and there wasn't much left to say.
As soon as he said ,Kongo was an elected monarchy ,i made the connection
@@roog49 I realised it when it talked about an un diversified economy
@@roog49 The One trick economy also explains the resource curse problem In countries with abundant natural resources.
This video got me thinking about how similar Saudi Arabia’s economy is to the former economy of Nauru, an island state in the Pacific.
As Nauru is an island that attracts birds on their migration paths to rest and feed, it resultantly became covered in guano, which is rich in phosphate, a crucial aspect in diammonium and monoammonium fertilisers. Though the British, Aussies and Kiwis ran a joint company than controlled guano mining on the island for much of the 20th century, the Nauruans eventually bought full control over the mining and sale rights in 1970 themselves.
With a small population and large guano reserves, the Nauruans became unbelievably wealthy, and their economy skyrocketed during the 70s and 80s. Nauru became so rich that it was momentarily the wealthiest country in the world in terms of GDP per capita. However, it’s economy was entirely dependant, top to bottom, on the phosphate mining industry.
The Nauruans, and consequently the Nauruan government, were extremely irresponsible with their financial blessings. Many regular Nauruans would often book week-long flights to Paris for opulent shopping tours, most of the populace developed a ridiculously unhealthy diet, and mine operators would often import luxury high-performance cars onto the island to drive, despite there only being a single road on the entire island that never exceeded 50kph.
In fact, many old high-end American and European cars from the 80s lie abandoned and heavily rusting on the roadside in Nauru even today, as it was often the case that when the car ran out of fuel, the owner simply pulled over and left it by the side of the road. After all, the island was only 21 square kilometres in size. They could easily walk back home, and most were so rich that they could just order another car anytime they wished without too much worry.
However, by the 90s, the guano reserves on Nauru had almost entirely run out. The economy, which revolved completely around the phosphate mining sector, collapsed, and the trust fund that the Nauruans placed much of their money into had failed to yield any significant returns. Nauru became an impoverished Pacific Island, to the point that it temporarily turned itself into a money laundering hub for many global companies in order to try and maintain its crumbling economy.
To this day, Nauru is a geological hellscape. 90% of the island, which used to house lush tropical bushes and trees, has been turned into an apocalyptic environmental landscape as a result of excessive phosphate mining, covered in jagged coral peaks that can reach as tall as 7 meters in length. Nauru’s economy is but a shell of it’s former self, and the island gains most of its revenue from Australia by acting as a detention centre for Australian refugees and immigrants. Nauruans remain the most obese populace on the planet, with an average of 70% of its entire population considered overweight.
Although Nauru isn’t entirely identical to the Congo Kings or Saudi Arabia, notably in that it never tried to use military force to bully its Pacific neighbours into its sphere of influence, I think it’s another great example of the vulnerability of command-and-control economies, how a resource considered a blessing to have can conversely become a curse, and how it can destroy the economic, technological and political development of a nation to the point of no return.
That was a very intresting read thank you for sharing it 👍
@@ChadPANDA... In summary, don't put all of your eggs in one basket.
Sounds like Easter island, or the world in general
@@isaiahsmith6016 no, don’t siht in your own back yard
Reminds me of the original lorax movie (the one that came out in 1972)
The bit about the Saudis is kind of obvious, but the first part, about the history of the very beginning of the plantation system and the slave trade is fascinating! Thanks for posting this.
It will be fascinating to see what happens when the remaining hydrocarbons become too expensive to extract and no-one in Saudi Arabia has the innovations needed to extract them for a worthwhile price. It's likely they'll reach that point within the next few decades.
Poverty, political destabilization, collapse, geopolitical destabilization, and mass migration
If Saudi Arabia can’t pay for anything then its opponents would exploit the opportunity without hesitation. So the Houthis and their Iranian allies would be pretty happy.
@@carlbates9110 Yemen is even more doomed than the saudis. The entire peninsula is in trouble.
@@Hjernespreng The entire world will be facing serious issues in the coming decades. For people like the Houthis that provides opportunity.
@@carlbates9110 not really know why the world should concern about houthis it's very domestic issue
The biggest difference between Congo hundreds of years ago and Saudi Arabia today is that the Saudis are very well aware of their predicament. They are taking (baby) steps in diversifying their royal portfolio with solar power, engineering technologies and innovation, but their biggest issue is authoritarianism. They're still very much a tribal society and you cannot convince an absolute ruler with a seemingly infinite amount of money to curb his own power. They can remain an economic powerhouse, but if they follow this path, they will have a complete societal collapse
@@rami8896 any culture can adopt a more peaceful standard. It doesn't have to be some Scandinavian democracy, but a bit of human rights goes a long way
As a Saudi I agree to some of your claims, but “baby” steps is a false statement. Saudi Arabia is currently taking huge leaps in diversification, for example just look at the billions of investments the government is working on and you’ll know what I mean.
We as an audience really appreciate how consistently good your content is, just letting you know! Keep up the good work.
حلم ابليس بالجنه 😂
مساكين هالغرب محروق دمهم
اي والله
I've heard of something called the Resource Trap, where a country relies too much on natural resources,hence fails to diversify its economy and invest in its infrastructure. Applicable for Saudi Arabia and Russia I guess.
A video on how Norway managed to avoid the Resource Trap would be insightful
clown, why do you think we are building all the shit we are building right now, we know eventually the oil will run out, it doesn’t genius to figure that out
Russia? Lol Russia was a superpower by industrializing
@@kraitkraut3734 Russia was only able to industrialize the way it did because of its vast natural resources and today Russia's economy is almost entirely based on extracting resources.
@@EvdogMusic Norway had a stable democratic government and a modern industrial economy by the time it discovered oil. By contrast, post-colonial countries had their institutions evolve alongside the oil industry (and other resource extraction industries) and as such became tied to them.
You should do a full episode explaining Africa’s Slave trade, as this seems to have a very clear, direct causal effect of the current state of African nations.
He really should, taught me a bunch of stuff I didn't know about the Kongo and the role it played. Very fascinating!
Oh yeah a lot of African kingdoms were involved in the slave trade
In fact the British, when they switched their policy on slavery, even designated a segment of their own navy: *The West Africa Squadron* to patrol all along the West African coast
And they arrested many American and European slavers from 1808 to 1867 just shortly after the US civil war and when the US finally ended slavery for good
They were also involved in deposing numerous allied African monarchs who refused to comply with the British anti-slavery policy such as King Kosoko
I'm not saying this to exonerate the British, I'm saying this to help with the nuance and understanding of the issue at large
@@rejvaik00 when it comes to American history, you can only give Britain so much credit. They literally supported the CSA
@@papaicebreakerii8180 as I said it didn't exonerate the British and I'm not attempting to exonerate the British
through the entirety of those 60 years and which the squad was active they only stopped 150,000 slaves from being put into slavery a pathetic attempt and modern day historians echo this
but it goes to show there is a level of nuance when it comes to understanding the idea of the slavery and Africa as a whole
And of course Britain was supportive of the side, Britain would do *anything* at the time in the 1860s _when they were still the dominant global Navy_ in an attempt to reclaim lost colonies that's Empire 101
but you also need to understand the British successfully arrested and returned a Confederate naval rading ship to the US,
It makes more sense if you think of it in geopolitics then if you do in morals and ethics
I am not bringing up morals and ethics I am bringing up geopolitics and I'm telling you the British did very strange things we were to look at them today in the modern lens
where suddenly flipping thier own slave policy and putting down African slave monarchs, only to later support the CSA and then reneg on that and arrest a CSA rading ship
@@papaicebreakerii8180 And did you also look at the years that I listed when the West coast squadron was active? 1808 - 1867
Meaning the West coast squadron was likely also one of the causes for the War of 1812 with the US and Great Britain
When the US as a whole got fed up of the British activity at sea, and them forcibly pushing themselves onto American ships and putting those ships under British law and forcibly making them serve under British military command through means of impressment
My post does not do anything to paint the British in a good light, that's not the attempt
Rather it's to show that there are so many chapters and so many things you need to look at, when you want to talk about slavery
Because it concerns so many stories spanning multiple nations, people, and continents
It’s honestly amazing that a society like this even still exists now.
Why? Dictatorships, absolute monachies, warlords, tribalism, feudalism etc have been the most common form of state throughout history...
Awesome to see my two favorite youtubers collaborating, you and Sseth are truely gifts.
Wheres sseth?
@@fz7788 The picture he uses as his avatar shows up in the bottom right at 10:43
Kraut by now is the Miss Friz of UA-cam and im just on the school bus
I see Saudi Arabia as the national equivalent of a lottery winner: they lucked their way into massive wealth and lost it because they didn't know how to properly manage it. The Kongo Kingdom shows how this kind of complacency is nothing new.
They still have it Are you in the future?
The Chinese after, The Byzantines before them, and Spartan-Athenians further back still
Or like Nauru
@@Piromanofeliz I was thinking about that too!
@@blenderbanana History rhymes.
Another great video. This really illustrates the absolute trap that becoming a resource extractive economy puts a society into. It seems like a good deal, but basing your economy on resource extraction leads to poverty for most people, rampant political oppression, and eventually losing all the money you got from it. You can see it in regions in larger countries, such as Appalachia or the Mountain West in the USA or the coal mining areas of the UK. Venezuela is a poster child for the Curse of Oil.
I fully acknowledge there are some counterexamples (Norway shows up), but the strong majority of extractive economies are effectively miserable tyrannies.
Oohoooo, don't talk about what happened to the coal areas of the UK.
You say anything about that that isn't what people want to hear and you're a goddamned thatcherite and THATCHER STOLE OUR COAL REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE THATCHERTHATCHERTHAT-
The issue is not resource extraction; the issue is failing to use those funds for societal betterment. Norway is a petrostate whose primary exports are petroleum and fish -- both extractive. That said, the Norwegian government has invested the money from these into education, promoted civil society, industrialized, etc., which is why Norwegians have a high standard of living that will not collapse into poverty the moment petroleum becomes obsolete. The Gulf Countries, though, aren't doing this.
@@oremfrien yes there are exceptions such as Norway but mostly extractive economies end up really awful… Russia, Venezuela, parts of the USA such as Appalachia historically dominated by extraction, mining areas of the UK, Nigeria, etc. In development economics it’s called the “curse of oil.”
Norway has the benefit of having had an established polity before it discovered oil. Still I bet oil is playing a corrupting role.
great example on ow to do it right: norway
This entire video is made around the assumption that Saudi isn't aware of its current dependency on oil and isn't trying to modernize. The moment you remember this is wrong, the whole video falls apart lmao. A little bit ignorant. Just look at what the Saudi public investment fund is doing for instant
Lol bye bye Saudi’s . Rest in piss
@@rangodenalo6185 Bro i see you in every comment, you seems butt hurt alot about KSA wealth LOL
@@XxToPgamE you gonna cry to ?
@@XxToPgamE look at this sand pheasant defending other peoples wealth 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@rangodenalo6185 I'm not the one crying in every comment like you, just keep hating on other countries and get back to your miserable life 😆
As a history student myself I am always astonished of the depth of your knowledge and your surprising, but striking historical comparisons. This is truly one of the best channels on UA-cam. Please keep up the good work and all hail the almighty algorithm.
i get the massage from the congo past but to say saudi will become the next congo without enough evidence is simply dumb, because saudi owns the entirety of aramco, it owns some of blackrock, vanguard, starbucks, apple,amazon, visa, google, Nintendo, microsoft and uber.. and many more… how could it be the next congo if its this well stabled ? We are not the us as we dont even have debt + more than 40 T$ in resources and investment.
@@Waizki Those assets will quickly dry up when your only source of foreign currency also dries up.
As a side note: the one country that actually became more democratic after the Arab Spring was Tunisia, though sadly that has reversed in recent years. That country has a rather diversified economy, meaning a Tunisian dictator cannot rely on control of one resource to control the economy and the state. I'm thinking of that when I hear that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (not even pretending to be a democracy) is reliant on hydrocarbons.
Ah the term "Arab spring" most likely cocked up in some conservative US think tank so they could then use that to invade other Middle East countries.
That brings up a good point, I would love to learn more about the Arab spring. That is history that is not spoken about in high school American history. I tried to dive into why, but it seems complicated from an outsiders view.
Dude the fact that you were able to condense a topic that could’ve been covered within an hour into a 14 minute video is great.
Tbh i wish it was an hour
@@krowflin4468 same but apparently because it takes long to make hour-long videos, the algorithm keeps Kraut’s videos hidden and UA-cam unsubs people from his channel. So idk what would be a better option.
I am very impressed that you told the story of the part the Africans played in the slave trade- Europeans could not have captured native Sub-Saharan Africans on their own. Slavery in Africa certainly predated Europeans and persisted after they left.
There's slavery and there's institutionally backed slavery
They are not the same
@@nananou1687 - what’s your point? Do you think Chattel slavery was a uniquely western institution?
@@nananou1687 so the institutions of the African states that propagated slavery did not promote slavery? or what is your point?
Slavery was everywhere in the past, even if it went by different names. In China slaves were primarily POW or orphans and you couldn't be born a slave because China used to castrate the males. I believe some emperors actually banned slaves which would make it the first to do so, but it never held.
Portugal wasn't stupid, they built a huge empire. Their choice was to go to war with Congo, raid the country for slaves, and have half their men die to diseases and war. Or, pay off the Congo king with some guns and gold for slaves, and make a huge profit.
"Why Saudi Arabia is doomed" a video also known by an informal title: "What happened to the Congo kings?"
1:22 quote
3:10 transatlantic slave trade
6:14 mono economy
8:00 tax
11:19 Saudi Arabia US deal
12:00 next Congo
10:43 Hey hey people, sseth here
This video not only put a great analogue as to why UAE is doomed economically, but also gave me a good history lesson as to how Congo descent into violent conflict that was dubbed "World War Africa". I only learnt about the war but not so much of the background as to why Congo until now still unable to become a functioning country until this video. Until now, Congo is still exploited by richer foreign countries and Congo is still unable to reap the benefits of rich mineral for their own Congolese. I guess that's what happen, when there wasn't anyone who have the will and strength to unite the country and build a true national identity to unite the Congolese.
They had Patrice Lumumba in Congo but course they killed .
@@alanharding2485 You really think UAE is doomed? but EU will survive? Are you all from Europe? the land of coward vampires
@@alanharding2485 Of course they did. The current empire will take out (or try to) anyone who doesn't dance to the tune of imperialism and neocolonialism.
The UAE is in a better position, they’re finally innovating in healthcare, military and technology. I just read that companies/businesses in UAE need to employ a certain amount of Emirati people or they’ll be fined, which will help them in removing the reliance on forge in workers. They’re also getting into a lot of foreign innovation developments that they could bring back to UAE.
I personally despise the UAE government for what it did and is doing to Yemen, it is controlling and ruining the country and will make the Yemenis fall 50-60 years backwards in terms of development.
I see Saudi as being the one to get in political turmoil as its massive and they’re all condensed into major cities, and they’re already ruining their political and cultural structure that they have been reliant on for the past 100 years.
@@SA-nu2so You make no sense, you know saudi implemented the nationals employment quota years before the uae ? and they implemented it more strictly and demanded larger amount of saudis. there were so many points you could have praised uae on but you choose the worst one lol.
This problem is called the Resource Trap, but if you think about it, it can apply to anything, e.g. many Pacific Islands' economies went seriously south when COVID hit, and tourist trade went down.
A bit late to the conversation but this really hits harder now that "The Line" and all its ridiculous failings have come out and really shone a light on just how delusional the Saudi government is. Its a tragedy thats rapidly becoming an inevitability.
Ah yes the line. Somehow they expect to attract 9 million people from other countries to live and work there.
Whether it will succeed or not, it's even predicted that it would literally deflect rays of sunlight directly to migration bird paths which will kill most of them.
What failings have come out? Could you please provide a source?
@@AA-sj7gv Are you really asking? Or is this feigned ignorance? Do you really not see potential issues with building a road to nowhere through deserts and mountains and then trying to build a city around it while brutalizing natives who happen to live where you are supposedly going to build this nightmare city?
If you really don't see why The Line would be an engineering and societal nightmare, there are plenty of videos on UA-cam about that topic. I recommend the one by Adam Something.
Saudi deserves to be destroyed, the knowingly export terrorism around the world. Saudi has a few hundred thousand tents in the desert set up for Ramadan yet when the Syrian refugee crisis happened Saudi along with the other rich Arab nations didnt take a single one. The day saudi is destroyed I will be out in the streets partying.
The part of an elective monarchy in the Congo Kingdom is interesting! I actually would like to see a video from you about various elective monarchies, proto-democracies and republics outside the West/European history.
Saudi Arabia is an elected monarchy
@@TheMagicJIZZ was
Poland-Lithuania once was an elective monarchy, and it clolapsed because of it
@@baneck8627 Most early Medieval kingdoms in Europe were (semi) elective monarchies. Primogeniture was invented surprisingly late.
@@baneck8627 PLC lasted like 2 centuries. not really a bad thing. the soviets lasted 70 years not even 1 single century.
10:44
"Hey hey people."
Congratulations! You were the first one to comment that reference (took me 5 min to confirm lol)
Can’t happen soon enough to a more deserving country
As a wise man once said
"You live in a desert!!! Nothing grows out here. Nothing's gonna grow out here."
Ah, Sam Kinnison.
Fascinating video. You often see their involvement in the slave trade brought up as a way to deflect against race issues of the modern day, but it is interesting how their society sort of evolved in a way to fit into that slave trade with their involvement with colonial powers.
But who is more sinner the buyer or the seller.
@@dkin7685 Aren't they both just terrible? That's like asking "who was worse, Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan?". Both sucked, a lot.
Can we please take a moment collectively to reflect on modern slavery, how by some estimates it is on a greater scale than the entire trans-Atlantic slave trade, and how we all probably benefit from it (by eating chocolate or industrially-caught fish, staying in hotels, being a consumer in the sex industry, using tobacco or getting a manicure at a salon). Just like the invisible ooomph that oil brings to the modern economy, modern slaves are invisible. Unless that is your corner of kink.
@@JerkandDork or british empire.
So many nations come to mind... In my country (Ecuador), I know people who insist on oil being the main drive for the economy and anyone who disagrees being labeled an enemy of progress. Of course, Ecuador is a somewhat functioning democracy in a much more stable region so there are notable differences.
title:saudi arabia
video:atlantic slave trade and congo
i understand that i he makes a point but its a video about saudi you just talked about it only 3 minutes and made a point for 11 minutes
well, the saudis are trying to "diversify" their economy right now. from what i gathered, its not going well. there arent many natural resources other than oil, most of the country seems incredibly hostile to agriculture and for an economy based around manufacturing or high level services the country would need a large part of their population on high levels of education, which cant happen overnight and doesnt seem to be the goal anyways.
instead the get big into advertising their country as a tourist hotspot and a place for great vacations. because who wouldnt like to spend their free time in a country that resembles the middle ages in all the ways except technological development?
what would really interest me is how the country would deal with rising global temperatures through climate change. with an average temperature of 28°C with an upwards tendency it seems like it will be to warm for large human populations to survive even before their hydrocarbons run out.
Temperature won’t affect them at all really. They have air conditioning everywhere
@@awlkdural5396 the rich people yes. But i highly doubt all the slaves who actually do manual work have any form of aoirconditioning either at their home or their workplace. And you kinda need those people to not die of heatstroke in comically large amounts.
@@philip8498 The irony is that Saudis are fairly well educated. BUT their universities pump out religious scholars, and no practical degrees. Nothing wrong with religious scholars, but it's virtually all that Saudis learn about.
@@jgw9990 i did not know that they had a decent education system. Even if it only produces religious scholars right now, that is something that could probably be turned into a working education system teaching degrees useful for building a sophisticated economy. With a vit of work and social reform anyways
Dubai famously has a major tourism and banking industry, which is worth mentioning to some extent
10:42 **Muffled "Heyhey people" in the distance*
Today we will be looking at a game that makes the war crimes Serbia made in the Balkans look like a kindergarten fight. I am of course talking about Stardew Valley.
tl:dw unlike Russia and Norway, Saudi Arabia had failed to use their natural resources to build a powerful consumer economy, and as oil and natural gas start to fade from relevance, giving way to green energy, they are going to fade themselves too
Very interesting. There’s a bunch of similarities between Saudi Arabia and Venezuela as they depend on oil for stability to their countries and refuse to diversify and invest in other than the oil business. Yet each went separate directions on a variety of factors.
saudi is trying hard for over 60 years(last 10 years saw the most initiatives started), its just the prerequisite for developing industry is a hard nut to crack due to over saturated market, anything saudi can make, others can make cheaper(asia) or better(western).
japan and south korea utilized their people to manufacture cheap products which gave them the ability to get experience for bigger margin products, something saudi cant do due to the social culture and the stupid actions of the first king who gave people ridiculously high wages for any job, this meant that anything made locally would have outrageous prices.
Also a valuable lesson on how democratic socialism is worse than even a theocratic monarchy.
10:46 Hey Hey people, Seth Here
The Congo kings didn't adapt technology for the same reason the Romans didn't; they had slaves, which are the best appliances humanity had. You can order them around to do anything, as opposed to machines which can only do one thing. If you had such a well-oiled machine in your possession, why bother innovating?
And this reliance on slaves meant that the ancient world-despite having gears and something that could have been developed from a novelty toy that turned steam into motion into a steam engine and started an industrial revolution and centuries of wealth creation-didn’t. All that prosperity never happened because slaves were easier than investing in productivity and technology. It was easier to understand wealth from slaves than it was to understand wealth from ideas. So we stuck with the former. Many of us still think this way. Stick with what we know because we can’t envision anything better.
@@capitalistdingo The same thing could be said for Imperial China. Why bother industrializing when you have millions of peasants to do the dirty work?
Wow amazing thought UA-cam was glitched showing me the wrong video but dam the ending 😮
Its always very interesting to see a state's balance between modernity and religiosity
Short and concise (relatively speaking): I like it. And I do think you have a point. Even if climate change deniers were right (and by now, it's starting to get really bloody obvious that they aren't) that still wouldn't change the fact that oil is a limited, non-sustainable ressource and that it is only a matter of time until there will no longer be a sufficiently large supply to meet the worlds demand if we don't stop being so wasteful about it and look out for less finite alternatives.
Obviously resources are limited, since there are limited number of atoms. That being said.
When prices grow, new reserves become financially viable. Like lets say Canadian tar sands have an estimated 1.7trillion barrels, or 6-7 times reserves of Saudi Arabia. That oil is just too expensive for now to get.
Then if prices get even higher, it would be viable to ressurect transformation of coal into oil.
The only resource humans are in any danger of running out is capacity to ruin this planet.
Not that obvious.
How's that energy bill over there?
more people die from cold then heat every year. just a fun fact
I have to say, this video is one of yours I have enjoyed the most. The history of the slave trade and its socio-economic consequences are well explored. I may not agree with everything, but I am nonetheless impressed. Great work
The entire part about Saudi Arabia could've been missing without even a mention of the country and the point would still have been powerfully made by the title alone.
Video: portugal kidnapping Africans to be slaves
Music: 🌈🌈🥳🥳🎉🎉🎉😃😃
finally a comment I can actually understand
I can see the parallels with Roman society during the transition from the Republic to the Empire: The Emperors needed to get their heirs experience with governing and ruling for when they took over, and they also needed to reward loyal (and powerful) supporters so young men were accelerated up the Cursus Honourum into posts that normally men had to work their whole lives for. As men far more experience and qualified but who weren’t as key to the Emperor staying in power kept getting passed over for high office almost all men of skill or merit withdrew from Roman political society and busied themselves with philosophy and private pursuits as staying in the political sphere gained them nothing and ran the risk of running them afoul of powerful and temperamental young men who had never proved themselves capable and so were always looking for slights to attack.
The single biggest consequence of this was that the men who were running the Empire eventually were lazy and corrupt and the old Roman Virtues had decayed to the point that no one was willing to hold themselves to them if it meant that an enemy could get one over on them. This also meant the the people in power in Rome were more focused on maintaining favour with the Emperor and so spent so much of their time and energy fighting their political rivals rather than ensuring the survival of the Empire.
And when the repeated hammer blows of the Huns and then the Germans fell on the Empire the only men left in power were too weak and inept to defend it and the Western half of the Empire shattered into a multitude of warring states and petty kingdoms.
great analogy, love it. How true, the most simple explanations are the most to the core.
With all respect to your channel content but your analysis is based on the Saudi economy in the 1990s or 2000s, your video is misleading, u were so biased and your hatred is clear towards the GCC states, we have technically succeeded in diversifying our economy after we announced the Saudi vision 2030 back in 2016, our agricultural sector before the vision 2030 was only contributing to the total GDP by 2% and now it makes up about 8% of the total GDP “keep in mind” that we are a desert country that’s a big achievement we made from the desert a place where you plant everything and anything, our tourism sector before the vision was only 2% of the total GDP and now it makes up about 5.3% of Saudi GDP our goal is to reach 10% by 2030, our military equipment spending decreased we were the 3rd country in the world in military equipment spending and now we are ranked in the 8th position and that’s because we started to manufacture the military equipment we were only manufacturing 2% of our military equipment needs before 4 years and it increased to 12% in 2021 and it is possible to reach above 20% at the end of this year our goal is to manufacture more than 50% by the year 2030, our total number of factories before the vision was only 7k and now it increased to more than 11k we Saudis are witnessing the progression in each sector, our nonoil exports were only 10% of the Total exports and they became 26% of the total exports in 2021 our goal is to reach 50% by 2030 when u talk about countries' economies u need to use new reliable data and cover its economies from all factors, and the way you have accused a whole nation of being barbaric and uneducated is so uncivilized from you, there are doctors, engineers, architects, inventors, entrepreneurs, CEOs, scientists, etc..., from the gulf states, our capital Riyadh buildings and skyscrapers were mostly designed by Saudi architects, I can't believe that there are people who uprising your work on generalizing on a whole nation sad to see how a human becomes.
Oman succeeded weeks ago from getting independent from oil
“What is morally wrong can never be advantageous, even when it enables you to make some gain that you believe to be to your advantage. The mere act of believing that some wrongful course of action constitutes an advantage is pernicious.”
-Marcus Tullius Cicero
Man the quality of the art and editing just keeps getting higher and higher with each video you make. Super interesting and well done.👏
I’d like seeing more on pre-colonial African states. Another great video, Kraut
I'd say the gulf princes are much wiser, they are attempting land reclamation and water desalination. They know that the oil game will be up one day and they have to get their heads into agriculture quickly before international shipments of food ceases when they have nothing worth to give
This video is a masterclass!
What a brilliant parallel was made. Well done sir
What about United Arab Emirates? They kinda try to innovate and diversify their economy:
- their airlines are successful (Emirates, Etihad, etc.)
- they somewhat succeeded in luxury tourism (Burj Halifa, Burj al arab), even though the world island and similar projects were not a success
- a place for the business (26th best nation in the world for doing business in 2017)
- owns a space agency, having some success(launching satellite build by their own engineers), their probe went into orbit around Mars last year
I don't see UAE as doomed. Even though I wouldn't call it Tiger Economy level success, but also don't see it being compared to Kongo.
Also Qatar worth mentioning that despite being not democratic, it owns a successful media giant("Al Jazeera English" being one of the most popular in the world), which is mostly seems to be more or less adequate and to standards of journalism.
So I wouldn't make direct head-to-head comparison to Kongo. Also because the oil rich arab countries seem not to use their population as slaves, but rather having proper lives, I don't think it shatters the population.
Uae and dubai are different. Thier banking and other industries collapse every time oil collapses.
Also thier space mission is mostly just transferred knowledge
@@Myanmartiger921 I didn't mention Dubai anywhere in my comment.
Lol you really cannot read between the lines. Every country in the region is autocratic. Citizens are denied the opportunity of sustainable self development or the ability to grow industry. They live in a surveillance state. A substantial portion of GDP is used to police civil society. Foreigners are brought in as slave labour. AL Jazeera reports on the world but not internal issues. It's basically acts as the fact checker of western conservative media. Obviously, the UAE has portrayed itself in a more western friendly guise but it still retains autocracy and theocracy. Remember just before the fall of the Ottamans' the Arab lands were living in abject poverty after the fall of the medieval Muslim empires. What made those empires great were the freedom of the intelligentsia and international trade.
OIl rich arab countries don't use their own populations as slaves - they use other countries' populations - Phillipines, Bangladesh, Nepal etc.
For me, you are the best video essayist in the game. Or at least closely tied with Contrapoints (with very different styles). Thanks for your time and effort. I aspire to do the things you are doing right now.
Kraut, man, you always have interesting and thought-provoking content, and as an American, I appreciate your European perspective (in English), but I always have to crank the volume on your videos, and some parts are still too quiet to hear without headphones. Please mix your audio a few decibels higher and either level or normalize your waveforms!
As a Saudi woman, I am happy that the picture you have of us is old, and that the non-oil economy in the Kingdom is the fastest growing in the whole world, according to American reports. I want to say that our government is good and we love it, and it does not oppress us. Thank you for your effort. I enjoyed the video.
عشت
و عاشن نساءنا تاج رؤوسنا
As a Saudi citizen I approve of this comment
You said what I was on mind. Sadly the video is just rehashing old stereotypes about Saudi Arabia without realising how happy we are here
Non-oil economies that are still reliant on oil and the USA babysitting you. Neighbors that hate you and an ideological timebomb of 6th century bigotry waiting to blow up.
Yeah sure.
Well it is not like you can criticise the government for the oppression anyway even if you were being oppressed, as your government is an absolute monarchy. Your country relies massively on migrant labour from India/Pakistan, most of which are essentially modern day slaves under the Kafala system. Your government also killed hundreds of unarmed Ethiopian migrants and asylum seekers who were trying to cross the Yemeni-Saudi border in 2023, and has done so frequently in recent years. Saudi Arabia in the future will likely survive, but it is also likely that you will not have the same luxuries or living standards as you do today with heavily subsidised/free services and at the same time having very low taxes, because of your big reliance on oil and gas for your exports and government revenue.
10:44 Hey hey people Sseth here. Do you want to exploit a small kingdom in africa for your personal gain? Then eu4 is for you
Could the slave economy of the Congo Kingdom be an early example of an economy suffering the so-called 'Dutch Disease?'
It's a related condition. Dutch Disease is a milder form leading to economic recession, not a complete political collapse.
@@watchm4ker Thanks for the reply. It just really makes you wonder what their economic reasoning was for hundreds of years. Don't need the wheel?? Just don't need it? I'll leave it at that.
@@williamreymond2669 It's not that different from the Roman Empire. They stagnated *fast,* and despite being in a position to nudge into mechanization and industry, they never really surpassed the Hellenic city states. They could just throw soldiers and slaves at a problem to solve it... until they went broke, and couldn't pay the soldiers.
@@watchm4ker Thanks for the reply. The reliance upon slave labor was a real problem for the Romans [and the Greeks]. But, it is also absolutely fair to say that the Romans surpassed the Greeks in many ways economically, politically, militarily, and technologically. It is starting to be clear that the Romans possessed something like a factory system for certain producing goods at the sort-of industrial scale and their engineering was the wonder of the world. Even then, can you provide an example of the Romans ignoring an advance in technology because they had a surplus of slave labor? As far as I can figure, the idea of the wheel and the alphabet were introduced but never taken up by Africans of that time - an explanation is required.
@@williamreymond2669 why would you need the wheel in Kongo? It’s a tropical rainforest the ground is unsuited for wheels and there’s no Ungulates in that region of africa so the wheel would be useless outside of toys and such which they did have but not for practical reasons. Even Europeans ditched the wheel in these locations deeming it unsuitable for the location
I like the comparisons with Congo and the analogy used. A lot of research clearly went into that and the history can definitely point to something. However, I think Saudi Arabia, like many of the Middle Eastern countries are very aware of the fact that they can't be dependent on revenues from energy, oil, etc. There's still a long way to go, and you can argue that they have been late in diversifying their economies, but I don't think they are doomed at all; they seem to be taking several steps in the right direction.
Whether they are all successful is another matter - but I think the headline is a bit misleading. Several countries in Middle East have made 'diversifying the economy' as a main point in their national strategy. I think if you take UAE for example, they are actively building and working on becoming a Finance, as well as Crypto and DeFI, Tourism, Tech and Trade hub. Again, there is a long way to go, but my main point is that these nations have known this for a while - they aren't oblivious to this.
Saudi Arabia in particular benefits from a consultancy economy. Several consultants from the big 4 and all sorts have been giving advice to Government, Business and Industries for years. They are more well informed than they appear, its just a matter of execution now. Not easy, but they have the resources to go for it.
I'm glad you said that. Many people paint us as oblivious to history and the world around us.
They are doomed, they are antagonizing USA now, not a good move when the world is moving towards green energy.
No matter how many consultants the buy they will still lack the rule of law, education, rights and civil society that the hubris of infinite oil money alowed them to forstall the nececity of developing. Why would a buiseness invest in a country where the corrupt government could rob you or change laws that effect you on a whim?
Meanwhile the king is so surrounded by yes-men that hes burning all that oil money on "the line" and other braindead megaprojects that dont make economic sense. Consultans dont stop autocracys from being corrupt and broken.
While this my be true, I do think a big part why it's extra difficult for these countries to diversify thier economies, is the authority implemented and solidified in the past 50 years. Not only did that produce rivaleries and hatred, but also decentralized the people. I believe the key to success in the long run is to emanzipate your people from the gouvernment, so you can access thier potential and ideas better. Even though it's possible, it may be slow to implement, ecspecially since the culture and societal structur is authoritarian since well over a generation.
All of these industries are only present because of tax breaks. When oil run out, these companies will leave
I love how this guy speaks in ASMR.
I like how you state that history doesn't repeat, but instructs. I used to believe in the former until I watched your video on it and I'm starting to notice it more and more.