Russian Collapse in Luhansk Imminent! | November 25th
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- Опубліковано 24 лис 2022
- UaSupporter: uasupporter.com/freekherson
In this video, we'll cover the developments around svatove
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I think this is my worst video. I assumed ukraine still had kharkiv levels of strength and planning and underestimated russias defenses. This video is part of the reason why I stopped doing too much analysis into possible attacks after taking the settlements in my newer videos. This is just a fantasy plan of an attack with no basis that I shouldn't have marketed like this. I didn't make the video in bad faith, mostly just out of not understanding. I hope my analysis has improved over time, and I promise I won't make another video like this
If both segments fall nearly simultaneously, we could possibly see another Izium-level fallback for the Russians if Ukraine is fast enough, otherwise Svatove-Kreminna and possibly Lysychansk could atleast be on the roads for liberation.
Their advances aren't anything but headlines. Russia falls back, Ukraine advances and they get slaughtered.
380,000 Russian reservists training up for the final act and you are talking successful Ukrainian offensive? There seems to be a lot of delusional thinking here. General Surovikin said he will grind the Ukrainian forces down. Ukraine attacks daily here and there and loses 40 men and some vehicles here, 70 men and some vehicles there. If you add them all up Ukraine are losing a lot of men and gear every day. This cannot be maintained. The Russian attacks on the power grid in Ukraine must be hampering troop movements and resupply. Russia in case you hadn’t noticed is not messing anymore. They don’t care about Ukraine taking some cow country that they can retake at any time. Russia follows Clausewitz ….destroy the enemy army and then you can take whatever you want. Ukraine has lost a huge amount of its best troops so far in this war. Right now the Ukrainians are being pushed back albeit slowly in the Donbas which is an important area. In the north the Russians are just holding a line. Note: In no Ukrainian offensive has Ukraine bagged a lot of Russian Prisoners or driven Russia out from a place they really wanted to defend. That tells you a lot. In Bakmut it is vital for Ukraine to hold it. The Russians have made progress and Ukraine keeps having to feed more troops into the wood chipper to hold on. So while progress is slow, Ukraines reserves are being drained. Optimism is not reality nor is hopium. Opinions don’t win wars. Stack up the realities on both sides and you can easily see who will win this. You also need to take off the MSM rose coloured glasses and understand that all the talk of Russia being incompetent, having rubbish weapons etc is largely untrue. The Russian Army is better equipped for this kind of warfare than the US Army. Fact! Hollywood has falsely let Americans get an optimistic picture of US capabilities.
@@peter.a.langan5872 ok kremlinbot
Welcome back kiddo...your video is good. Topography will play a key role in the North as Bishop makes the advance to take Rook. In the Center it will be a war of wills. In the South more movement by Bishop to advance on King. Watch for a flanking maneuver breakout and more shaping of the battlefield. The weather will impact both sides in different ways throughout the front. Keep practicing your Ukranian and pace yourself. Slava 🇺🇦!
I hope you’re alright it’s nice to have you back❤
Good to see your new Ukraine video. I like how you sketch out the possibilities offered by every Ukrainian liberation of a town. You are thinking like a general! (from Mike Q.)
Glad you’re back! 🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦
Sorry, but there are too many "if"s in this analysis. All this depends on available Ukrainian forces, the reinforcement possibilities of the Russians, the qualitty of the equipment on both sides, the will to attack, no matter what it will cost (lives and material), and last but not least the weather and ground conditions.
The Ukrainian strategie, following the last big advances, was, to cut off the Russians from their supply lines by precision artillery strikes and force their retreat as a result of lacking ammunition, water, food and other needed equipment. A kind of siege caused by high precision fire control on the enemies hinterland. This takes more time to succeed, but causes less losses of the own ressources. This is extremly smart, in opposite to just attack, no matter, what it costs. This doesn't mean, that you don't have to keep up the pressure with pin point actions on the whole frontline. You have to and you have to do robust reconnaissance on the ground, to find eventual weak spots for breakthroughs. But this also can involve bader losses, than planned.
Always remember: We are not talking about flesh thrown to the frontline, but about human beeings, with a history, a family, a job. Not one of these is really dispensible. In war, hard decision have to be made, but the former officer in me, sitting here on his couch, always sees the responsibility for the life and the health of "his" (wo)men too. The officer decides, who has to live or to die, but it's my duty to take care for "my" soldiers, the best way I can, and to protect them from unreasonable risks, if there are reasonable options.
Obviously you are young. Take an uniform, get trained, go out to the combats of this world, get a real battlestand, survive and then, just then, far apart from all virtual strategy- and shooter games, where losses don't really count, we can tallk again about the (im)possibilities in a war zone with thousand of kilometers to cover and protect.
Regards
Th. Krapf
Thanks for the update!
I thought you took a break to get a haircut. Well, maybe next time. 😁
You still blow me away every time I watch your videos. How the heck does a high school kid learn how to do this? When I was in high school I could tie my shoes. 😏
Leave his hair alone and get a life.
"To get a haircut" nice one.
I keep wondering if he is wearing a wig.
Anyway here's hoping that his breakthrough analysis come real soonest.
Well it's clear - he doesn't know what he is talking about....
How does a high school kid learn how to do this ..? Answer . He doesn’t
@@trevorcrook5753 even a clock that has stopped, is correct two times a day...
Good to see your reports again. Thanks
Glad your back great video
I'm bald! Let him have his hair while he can
😂😂😂😂
SLAVA UKRAINI
Haven't seen any confirmations yet on my map sources regarding Vilshana, Pershotravneve, Yahidne. Fairly sure Kyslivka is mostly in control of Ukraine. It's possible Orlyanske is at a breaking point for Russians, but I can't quite make that out on the maps I follow either. On one hand at this time my map sources tend to not update, but I don't expect that a major Ukrainian advance has happened there for a few reasons: in winter conditions in those hilly terrains it's difficult to push and it's easier to let Russians come towards Ukrainian forces instead. Secondly I think Ukraine needs more time for a new major operation to start. If, for example, they choos to move some units south to Zaporizhzhia, then it could be that the Luhansk front at Svatove is largely going to be a defensive front. Or if they do, then I reckon they will push just to capture a series of hill terrain to plant new defenses on.
In addition, I'm thinking Ukraine may consider this front very valuable for defense in its current state already because Luhansk units are prone to commit to reckless attacks and Russia has to concentrate both on holding Svatove and Kreminna/Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk (hard to combine their forces in one specific area for a big push), whereas moving further through the area would cause supply lines through inconvenient terrain for Ukraine and expose Ukrainian forces to a broader front and potentially more artillery from the Russian border. Make no mistake, they will punch through here eventually, but I think now's not the time.
Random... you have put a lot of analytic thinking into this rundown of how things could happen. Insightful, too. Well done!
Good to have you back
Great stuff! Keep it up!!
cheers very informative
Good to see a new video. Maybe some day we can see your eyes. Signed, Mom
Slava Ukraini!
It feels like something is brewing. I think when the mud stabilises there will be more activity. Same in Melitopol direction.
Love your narrative, very entertaining. After a bong especially. Keep it up man. Subscribed.
He's back!
You crack me up. Thanks
Welcome back mr. 💪
The forest south of Kremina will be decisive, if Ukraine can push enough troops through there the line will collapse. Nice analysis, mainly because it lines up with what I think and it flatters my fragile ego. Cheers mate. Subbed.
I'm not sure where you get all this info. I follow both Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels and they say things are way more uncertain.. And less gains/losses of territory happening on the ground.
Nice analysis. Quick. Concise. No waste. Good fucking job dude.
New subscriber, Excellent Analysis, Could you Please add Topographic Maps and Weather Forecasts to your videos as the coming Battles will depend as much on Terrain and Weather as it will Tactics and Weapons?
Damn!🎉
Nice breakdown. Bakmut, Soledar and ? defense is Phenominal!
Thanks guy. So now and then an update is ok!
Are you taking into accont some mud section in the map that make it impossible to do?
Don't worry about your what if's..as long as you make it uncomfortable for the Russians...thats the way! 👍 Lets hope it goes down like you said..appreciate your work..Cheers
I wouldn't get too excited just yet.
If you're right, I'll send you your 20 bucks my dude
well done.
Topo Kiddo is back ! 😁👍 Slava Ukraine 💙 💛 💪 🇺🇲
Thanks
Thank you so much man! You're welcome
You did a good job on the possibilities so I subscribed. Buuuut, OSINT analysis can/should, at the very least, include named brigade or regiment level ground maneuver element(s) - whenever possible. Tak!
You sound like you are prepping for a role on the Ukrainian General Staff but I enjoy the detail you go into. The Ukrainian leadership has shown impressive mastery of battle tactics from the start, always with an eye to preserving the lives of their soldiers in total contrast to the Russians.
LMAO... you are kidding right.
Ridiculous - Ukraine doesn't care or look after their men - they're all just fodder to the Russian machine - I'm afraid you are falling for the MSM propaganda.... the storm is coming!
Their soldiers are getting killed in their thousands . What are you on?
@@Terrysmithsmithonson Wondering what he and the video OP are smoking, lol.
Reincarnation of the ground crew for Galaxy Quest.
He is bacc
don`t be sorry for not posting for some time, we all know it takes a lot of time to take care of that much hair. 😁
aaaanywayz, glad you`r back
Start throwing shade at Dima from Military Summary Channel and the New World Economics bro to start an epic UA-cam OSINT feud
I've been in that area before looking for Scythian campsites.
I love it!
quit rapping and learn how to play guitar!
missed you, cousin It
I love your pumpkin shape hairstyle! 👍
Baby boy is back.💃🕺
Very interesting on possible developments for Ukraine. Can the author slow down a bit he gets too enthusiastic and his command of Cyrillic names of towns is impressive. However using temporary dots to illuminate where they are on the map would help English viewers and compliment the strategic analysis.
Thanks Peter
when YT gives good suggestions
I'm so old, I can hardly remember ever having a full head of hair like that.
70 here, have ten times that hair......
Interesting approach. My advice: don’t make the map jump around so much.
are the believeable sources for this claim?
Hes back 😁 thought pootin had ordered the fsb to deal with you 😂🤣
Your reports and those by another youtuber called Reporting From Ukraine are the best in terms of detailed war mapping and strategy. I am not as confident about you in the Luhansk region - seems like things have been more or less a stalemate for months and there was nothing in your report which leads me to think that Ukraine will now finally be able to make a breakthrough. I'd like to know why you think Ukraine is poised for successes in the region. Seems to me that unless Western Europe (eg France, Germany, Norway) get more serious with their assistance Ukraine just doesn't have the grunt to move forward in Luhansk.
I wouldn't say a stalemate per say. Ukraine has been slowly moving forward and been defending a lot of waves of attacks from the mobalised troops. That region is very hilly and with the rains that means mud. In another month or so the mud will be frozen solid and we might see some bigger movements again.
The same with the Kherson region, has been a lot of reports about special forces on the left bank but I dont think we will see a proper push from Ukraine until late December/January just because of the current weather.
Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦
Only analyst pronouncing city names well. Thanks
Less funny, good info, I like
Is that your real hair dude? Just asking.
Please Stop to move quickly the maps during your présentation. It's very difficult to follow your explains. Thanks for your job. friendly. jacques
Je suis d'accord, but better syntax: "Please refrain from moving the maps so quickly during your présentation. It's very difficult to follow your explanations when the map is jumping around. Thanks for your work. Amicably - Jacques"
What hair conditioner do you use? 👩
Russia must have fortified a fall-back defensive line in Luhansk oblast. Do you have any idea where that is?
I believe it would be along the aidar River, or the T1302 highway. The main russian goal would be to protect starobilsk, since that's the massive supply hub for the entire luhansk region. Past that, I think the pre-2022 line of fortifications in the luhansk oblast is as far as it would go
#DeletePutin
#FK, excellent. Persist, optimism is warranted. Here's why. Rasputitsa is over and the ground is frozen, so the UA can maneuver armor, artillery, and resupply vehicles off road to punch through RuAF static defenses. Consequently, the UA maintaining its momentum and is methodically destroying the the Russian army. The Russian army has joined the process by destroying itself at an even faster pace. Recent videos show huddled clusters of mobits dead from hypothermia. Winter temperatures and RuAF supply shortfalls will kill, wound, and sicken more Russian mobits trapped in their trench works than UA bombardment. Abysmal conditions and extreme combat losses is unleashing additional rebellion in the Kremlin's open-grave trenches. Tell the truth, is your video image an avatar for an anonymous brigadier general?
Mobik(s)
Rasputitsa is Russian. Slight insult to Ukraine... MUD.... "BEZDORIZHZHYA" is what it's called by Ukrainians.🟦🟨🟦🟨 We will WIN!🍉🍉Kherson now....Crimea NEXT!!
I certainly hope Ukraine takes all their territories back.
I thought you were going to get a haircut bahaha
Taking that territory in the north is irrelevent, Russia can always invade that area from their border so more Ukrainian troops would need to garrison the area; also it doesn't affect Russian supply lines which come from the north via that main highway which goes from Troitske through svatove.
Without an understanding of the disposition of forces (how many troops, type and where they are) all this speculation up and down a line on a map, its just pointless - There could be 5 men armed with sticks over 50 miles in one area and 20,000 to 10 in another.
What happened with the haircut?
This is hilarious 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Why -ivka different pronounced in Кошелiвка and Арапiвка? 😉
Novo-yehorivka ("..ye.." like in yes) - "..je.." is a bad transcription
Rye-horodka - rye (grain)
You are young, pardner, but you have a lot of tactically savvy. Are you a war game hobbyist by chance?
The headline promises that "Russian Collapse in Luhansk [is] Imminent," but there's precious little substance supporting that in the video. I love that Ukraine has gained control of those villages around Kyslivka, but that is all still in Kharkiv Oblast, well NW of Svatove, so it does not guarantee "collapse in Luhansk." Russia may not have adequate food or gear for its troops, but apparently it still has plenty of phosphorus munitions that can fry our guys unless they can get into fireproof shelters in time.
To say that our great Ukrainian heroes "could" move on from village X to village Y to village Z doesn't establish that they "will" be able to do that in the face of the sort of Russian defenses that have thus far kept Ukrainian forces from liberating places like Lysychansk, Popasne, Troitske, Donetsk or Mariupol. I am as anxious for a Ukrainian victory as anyone, but I see it as mostly a tough slog until Biden wakes up from his nap and authorizes Ukraine to receives the long-range missiles, A10 Warthogs, M1 Abrams tanks, fighter jets and other tools with which to chase the orcs out of Ukrainian lands for good.
Ceterum censeo Putin et eius percussores delendos esse.
Good Summary, ditch the animated Carrot.
Kherson is free so maybe a new title ? And why Russians want Bhkmut again ? Wagner gets a gold star ?
Nah,still a fair bit of Kherson to take yet,but,they're half way,and,doing really well. remembeer all the crap they have to clear..mines, booby traps ets.
It's stopped being a call to action and started to be an adjective
Сьогодні ми провели референдум у Луганському районі, і 77 відсотків хочуть залишитися з Україною, 25 відсотків - нейтрально зі страху. Лише 2 відсотки відповіли «так» Кремлю.статистичний розкид похибки за Карлом Фрідріхом Гаусом і Колмогорова-Смирнова = 2 відсотки
Dude, take a deep breath and stop moving the map and arrows all around so fast. Hard to follow along.
Impressive command of pronunciations. Good use of 'green screen' for face overlay. Maybe wear a hat to clean it up.
Good job kid. I think there is a wonderful military career for you. Just cut the mop and forget about the rap.
Check out George Thoroughgood's song 'get a haircut' it might be life changing and if not it is a top song.
ohhhhhhh dead kennedys, ramones and george and the delaware destroyers..........
Welcome back buddy.🟦🟨🟦🟨🟦🟨 Great stuff.
This is total bollocks 🤣🤣
Your mop is too distracting, makes it hard to take anything you say seriously. Maybe just go with the screen, you might attract more subs. The term is topography not geography again if you want to be taken seriously use the correct language.
3 months after and nothing happened
You are doing better with pronouncing Ukrainian names. Good for you!
May and IF are very big words.
Russia is not going to give up the territory without sacrificing another 100-k men.
Hahahahaha! Not!
Official sources say Russia has lost 11,000. If they had lost 100,000 they would have retreated back to Moscow . You need to grow up instead of believing this nonsense
Hey hairy guy ! What you deliver sounds like pure speculation, which might be ok under different circumstances, but the war is too tragic and serious for making fun of it like with a video game ! Watch out !
Lol your hair is hard to look at bro just take the face cam off. Rest of the video was good.
😌👍🇺🇦…
🇪🇸❄️
No haircut yet
In your dreams.
Need a ranger haircut.
I want to see how the Ukraine will cut off roads in the north and back up the whole russian army trying to flee Crimea. How many main roads are available for russia?
Russian army fleeing Crimea ? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
U need a haircut before you walk into traffic
Orcs deserve the worst!
HA😂
Big hair, what happened earlier?. Lol incendiary rained down on USA mercenaries..
Funniest shit I have ever heard
Hair is good. Look at these superficial hobos in the comments. A war is going on and the best they have to talk about is a haircut.
Nafo bots 🤡🤡🤡🤡