@@rutessian It gives people an indication of the main theme of the video, so they decide whether they want to watch the whole thing. Standard practice on UA-cam and for good reason = audiences appreciate it (even though it sounds like in your particular case, you don't)
Great tips, Generally diversification is a kind factor Don’t put your eggs in one basket. pragmatically I have been into all of this for some time,though I won’t say I have made or lost some fortune. Do you mind recommending a firm whose platform has diverse investing choices? Quite rare I anticipate your response.
The Fed did its job he reestablished the banking system and sacrificed the economy meaning WE THE PEOPLE. That is what he said basically, what do you think 🤔 What gets me is why have the banks been buying Gold and believe it or not Silver ?
Adam, next time you get Bill on your show can you get him to expand on the statement "the stock market has got so big it matters more". Does Bill mean that literally and quantity?
@@LurchLures my guess is he's referring to since interest rates were artificially kept so low it pushed everyone out on the risk curve therefore inflating the amount of assets put into stocks. An above average amount of capital has been pushed into Equity markets Etc
@@LibertarianRF because of tax policies. They basically force you to invest in 401k and be a lifetime bagholder. It’s one of the few writeoffs they give you. Same story on real estate and housing. They force you to pump those assets because it’s one of the only ways to avoid income taxes. They even admit they do social engineering thru the tax policy
The CEOs are hyper-focused on their valuation, i.e. stock price, so price informs decision making. If stocks don't go down, they won't cut cap ex and fire people. Sure, interest rates going up will influence cap ex and spend, but the stock price is paramount.
@@netizenkane2230 Stock prices are a complete fraud. They are really worth 20% of present levels maximum, without Fed manipulation. Zombie companies dependent on the Fed need to go out of business.
No, it does not. If I give you $1 million but you fear your profession will be gone tomorrow you will probably not buy a new house. Inflation is not from monetary policy today, it is due to shortages and blocking fossil fuels.
I watch all Wealthion videos and I think this one is the most important of the last weeks. I am talking of the fact that Bill did not agree with Adam/Lance and others that inflation will go away with a recession. I was a bit uneasy with this position being repeated by various guests and finally someone (Bill) disagreed and brought the key argument: If you are a country that cannot produce real stuff (because import everything, don´t have anymore the skilled manpower, etc.), get cheap energy (because no capex, no political will, few new trained engineers, etc.), you have a big problem because Globalization is finished and now you have to import base stuff from hostile countries (or countries no longer impressed by US hegemony). So maybe you can have some disinflation due to a severe depression (and I doubt politician and the CB will let such an event run for long) but the structural inflation factors will continue being around the corner to frustrates those that think that the problem is gone. This can be solved but it will take at least a decade, maybe two (and at least the US is a net energy exporters). In Europe, the problem is way worse.
Love this Fleckenstein guy! He’s got a shelf full of LP’s (that’s short for Long play Albums for you Millennial’s who never listen to music this way) and I’m betting it’s full of 1960-80’s Rock n Roll classics 😎
Yes, @17:00 is really the big enchilada. Ever since the fallout from the GFC in 2008, the Federal government has consistently run trillion-dollar deficits, something any sane person agrees is totally unsustainable. Why we haven't been able to bring the deficits back to something more manageable (a few hundred billion maybe?) is infuriating. Both parties have failed miserably even while being blessed with ample tax revenues. It appears that only the consequences of unserviceable interest payments will force the government to cut back, but it will be too late at that point to avoid major shocks to the system.
I've listened to Flek for a few recessions now. I've changed computers several times already and I've now realized both Flek and I have aged. More power to you Flek.
Precious metals are safe. And select equities (including those related to precious metals). Foreign stocks ( value, dividend payers ) are also a place to hide.
The FED should not be allowed to engage in quantitative easing. The FED should not be allowed to set interest rates. Lenders should set interest rates based on supply and demand. Then there would not be huge fluctuations in interest rates and gross domestic profit. There would be continuous growth around 3 percent per year and little inflation.
The central banks are being forced to both tighten and ease liquidity/credit, depending on the nature of the emergency they face (those of their own making), which amounts to trying to decide whether to die by strangulation or drowning. Either way, you perish for lack of 'oxygen' or, in this case, sound money. Doc
Oh god! The mentioning of Lacy Hunt in this video, really the king of deflation? How long has he been calling for deflation now? Ever since inflation started he has been preaching deflation.
Love the black trousers. Went to my closet and pulled out Ralph Lauren wool pants, size 10 from 1976. Size 10 then was like a 6 now. I could wear them. I loved the look! Quelle surprise!
Andrew, why would Entitlements "have to be scaled back?" Because, the U.S. Treasury physically prints the currency notes, why could they not continue to pay entitlements to the citizenry (nominally). Sure, I agree that purchasing power of those currency units will undoubtedly decrease significantly. But, why would the U.S. have to scale back their entitlement issuance? I'm a Military Retiree & Disabled Vet. I cannot imagine the U.S. Govt ever decreasing my Pension not Compensation, in nominal terms... Though, I expect the purchasing power of Pension & Compensation to decrease. I'm replying to you, in order to ask what you may have meant - e.g., further clarity. Looking forward to your Reply. Thanks.
I wish that would be the case. Most likely money will be printed and even large private companies and unions will be bailed out and their pensions saved at the cost of the dollar and the rest of our savings. Either way many peoples lifestyle and retirement will be greatly affected. Sad but the fact is they put too much faith in others controlling their money for the future. They should have taken the cash,lived within their means, and invested.
@@helenkessler6012 The only thing that you can do is cut back to the bone, start growing food, and perhaps move in with somebody that’s in the same situation. There are going to be alternatives, but nothing that is going to be pleasant. May God bless you, and all the rest of the people struggling! 🙏
I like how Bill Fleck skirts over the QE debate. Money was created, whether by the US Treasury backed by the belief in no limits due to QE, or by the Federal Reserve. He was always my favorite guest when I used to listen to King World News in the years before Covid. The right combination of humility and hitting the important points of what's going on.
48:00 yes, this. and the shift from asset inflation to CPI has been the shift from labor surplus and globalization to labor shortage and deglobalization, which are only getting worse.
FDR’s Treasury Secretary (we never learn)- We have tried spending money. We are spending more money than we have ever spent before and it does not work. … I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job, I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. … I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started and an enormous debt to boot! Henry Morgenthau, Jr.
It is almost an hour long, would like more stuff but split it up into 20 minutes chunks so people can watch waiting for the bus, for the weather for the appointment and get digested in pieces
Great part 1. I think the key going forward is the price of oil. The oil price effects everything the the consumer buys and needs. There will be no big presents under the Xmas tree this year, maybe a lump of coal 🤔.
"Highly efficient, very brittle", exactly decribes Fiat Currency Contracts.., and therefore exactly what happens if transactions are corrupted, it breaks under stress. (Another feature of tuning harmonics in Reciproction-recirculation pulse-evolution differentiates integrated Ecology)
Here's the answer to your question about whether or not the economy can handle fed funds rate above 4%: the "real" economy can, and the "phony" economy cannot. Zombie companies, and marginal companies that were just barely making it at a 0.5% fed funds rate, will obviously die. Healthy companies that make real things and provide real services will do just fine, as long as they haven't taken on too much debt for non-productive crap, like buying back their own shares...
The bond market would rally, and it likely would stick, because the demographic trends have never been more anemic. Sure, supply side inflation might always be a threat, but with growth a sub 2%, rates only need to be slightly above that. And once supply side inflation has been subdued, rates can move towards ZIRP and NIRP. Again, the demographics have determined this time and time again with labor participation and workforce growth.
If California's largest pension fund Calpers gets into the same trouble at in England, don't you think the Fed will consider that a crisis and re-ignite QE?
Great points but at 31:15 I’d argue the only reason the pound bounced was because the English govt relented and reversed course on the tax breaks for the rich otherwise I think it would have kept dropping
You need a house to live in so you only worry about its current value when you need to sell it and because it has dropped in price there is a chance it is worth less than you still owe on your mortgage. In which case you have to fund the difference.
Unfortunately although I like Bill I can never understand what he is explaining in a mechanistic fashion about how the bond market works. Always thought the treasury can create bonds Tbills and federal reserve prints currency and buys the bonds. That can be inflationary. If the stop then interest rates go up. But then federal reserve will have to forgive the interest on the bonds as government interest payments rise. About all I know. An explanatory episode on how bond market works would be nice
OK I saw it, thumbs up. But I think you should’ve mentioned it with your opening statement because like he said it was the main trigger of the problems in UK
Basically we learned here that the stock market may go up in the near future...or it may go down...or it may just stay the same. With that information you can now move forward with confidence.
hmm, there sure were a generous amount of "idunno" responses being offered in this discussion .. which just comes off as guarded speculation all the way around. pretty challenging to plot a course through unchartered waters, eh. 🤨
We bought in 2019 and refinanced in Jan 2022 at 2.25%. yoy our city is up over 18% for SFR, and homes continue to sell theough. Since purchasing, our house has gone up nearly 40%. We cannot afford to buy new in our area now, and we’re feeling that even with a 5-10% pullback over the next two years, we are not in a housing crash locally. Of course, things can change yet we only have 1.5 months of inventory at present. Our pricing is following same pattern of last 10+ years. I suppose things can change, yet we’d need 4+ months of inventory first….maybe we’ll get there in 2023.
@@mackakiwinz4353 in some cities, just not mine. Most headlines i read are inaccurate on this. Austin, Boise and Phoenix i think are pulling back. Still waiting for reality here to match the hype.
Bill said zirp... dont recall hearing that on the youtube, got my attention. What about the 1.2t of maturing treasuries on the fed balance sheet in the next twelve months? You are saying the days of the fed manipulating treasury yields is over, yet doesnt the fed have an arsenal of cash for a "synthetic-QE" by re-purchasing treasuries? The 6Oct balance sheet will show what the fed did with 85b maturing treasuries over the past week.
READ ADAM'S KEY TAKEAWAYS from this interview with Bill over at: wealthion.com/adamsnotes/
Why do you put a fragment of your video at the beginning of it? I see a lot people copied this idiotic practice. Why do you do it?
@@rutessian It gives people an indication of the main theme of the video, so they decide whether they want to watch the whole thing. Standard practice on UA-cam and for good reason = audiences appreciate it (even though it sounds like in your particular case, you don't)
Adam BIG THANKS Brilliant program Brilliant Guests 👍👍👍👍
@@Wealthion "It gives people an indication of the main theme of the video" - that's what titles and, maybe, thumbnails do.
Great tips, Generally diversification is a kind factor Don’t put your eggs in one basket. pragmatically I have been into all of this for some time,though I won’t say I have made or lost some fortune. Do you mind recommending a firm whose platform has diverse investing choices? Quite rare I anticipate your response.
Every time you have Bill on, he just has me glued to the computer monitor. One of your very best guests, Adam. Thank you!
P.M. ................Massive info drop from Bill ........your doing yourself a disservice ????
The Fed did its job he reestablished the banking system and sacrificed the economy meaning WE THE PEOPLE. That is what he said basically, what do you think 🤔 What gets me is why have the banks been buying Gold and believe it or not Silver ?
“The stock market is kind of the economy. It’s gotten so big and out of control it matters more than the economy”. An amazing statement.
Adam, next time you get Bill on your show can you get him to expand on the statement "the stock market has got so big it matters more". Does Bill mean that literally and quantity?
@@LurchLures my guess is he's referring to since interest rates were artificially kept so low it pushed everyone out on the risk curve therefore inflating the amount of assets put into stocks. An above average amount of capital has been pushed into Equity markets Etc
@@LibertarianRF because of tax policies. They basically force you to invest in 401k and be a lifetime bagholder. It’s one of the few writeoffs they give you. Same story on real estate and housing. They force you to pump those assets because it’s one of the only ways to avoid income taxes. They even admit they do social engineering thru the tax policy
The CEOs are hyper-focused on their valuation, i.e. stock price, so price informs decision making. If stocks don't go down, they won't cut cap ex and fire people. Sure, interest rates going up will influence cap ex and spend, but the stock price is paramount.
@@netizenkane2230 Stock prices are a complete fraud. They are really worth 20% of present levels maximum, without Fed manipulation. Zombie companies dependent on the Fed need to go out of business.
FINALLY a guest that gets it. Any money into the economy no matter where will raise prices. it varies but it still increases inflation.
No, it does not. If I give you $1 million but you fear your profession will be gone tomorrow you will probably not buy a new house. Inflation is not from monetary policy today, it is due to shortages and blocking fossil fuels.
One of the best Wealthion interviews I have seen, and I have seen a lot of them.
👍🏿a perfectly-informed guest, perfect topic-choice and perfect contextual timing👍🏽
I watch all Wealthion videos and I think this one is the most important of the last weeks. I am talking of the fact that Bill did not agree with Adam/Lance and others that inflation will go away with a recession. I was a bit uneasy with this position being repeated by various guests and finally someone (Bill) disagreed and brought the key argument: If you are a country that cannot produce real stuff (because import everything, don´t have anymore the skilled manpower, etc.), get cheap energy (because no capex, no political will, few new trained engineers, etc.), you have a big problem because Globalization is finished and now you have to import base stuff from hostile countries (or countries no longer impressed by US hegemony). So maybe you can have some disinflation due to a severe depression (and I doubt politician and the CB will let such an event run for long) but the structural inflation factors will continue being around the corner to frustrates those that think that the problem is gone. This can be solved but it will take at least a decade, maybe two (and at least the US is a net energy exporters). In Europe, the problem is way worse.
Adam, Bill and Michael Pento are my 2 favorites. Great interview
Can’t wait to see part 2. Bill is insightful and you ask great questions that are actual continuing of bills thoughts
Love this Fleckenstein guy! He’s got a shelf full of LP’s (that’s short for Long play Albums for you Millennial’s who never listen to music this way) and I’m betting it’s full of 1960-80’s Rock n Roll classics 😎
@@helenkessler6012 which one? Curious…👍
Just look at Herr Fleckenstein’s long hair = old school rocker
This interview was a master class
I wish I can push the like button multiple times. Thank you high level education guys. Looking forward for second part of the interview.
Great interview… thank you, Wealthion and Mr. Fleckenstein.
Another great conversation and I’m looking forward to the second half!
Thank you, again. Great content, as usual !
Thank you very much!
Excellent commentary. Keep bringing Bill back.
Thanks
Bill always has sage wisdom to dispense.
Thanks gentlemen.
Yes, @17:00 is really the big enchilada. Ever since the fallout from the GFC in 2008, the Federal government has consistently run trillion-dollar deficits, something any sane person agrees is totally unsustainable. Why we haven't been able to bring the deficits back to something more manageable (a few hundred billion maybe?) is infuriating. Both parties have failed miserably even while being blessed with ample tax revenues. It appears that only the consequences of unserviceable interest payments will force the government to cut back, but it will be too late at that point to avoid major shocks to the system.
love this guy! thank you
Brilliant interview!
Love Bill and really appreciate his view!
Thanks for having hm on!
I've listened to Flek for a few recessions now. I've changed computers several times already and I've now realized both Flek and I have aged. More power to you Flek.
Luke Gromen has called the situation accurately, consistently. Pls, bring him back
Please invite a guest that knows about the safety of the banks and investment firms where we can securely keep our money! Thank you for all you do.
Precious metals are safe. And select equities (including those related to precious metals). Foreign stocks ( value, dividend payers ) are also a place to hide.
The FED should not be allowed to engage in quantitative easing. The FED should not be allowed to set interest rates. Lenders should set interest rates based on supply and demand. Then there would not be huge fluctuations in interest rates and gross domestic profit. There would be continuous growth around 3 percent per year and little inflation.
What you are really saying is End The Fed
@@Pelican5077 Basically, yes - end all but their ministerial functions such as exchanging currencies and monitoring banks.
It feels like you have really found your groove with the last few videos, Adam. Good work!
Wonderful to hear Bill again. 👏 aftee his last appearance I looked forward to hearing an update!
great show....THis Fleckenstein bloke knows his stuff and gives a balananced, non ideological analysis which is a relief!
Amazing. Very informative. True Wealthion
Please reduce the volume on the intro countdown in future, it is so loud in comparison to video
The central banks are being forced to both tighten and ease liquidity/credit, depending on the nature of the emergency they face (those of their own making), which amounts to trying to decide whether to die by strangulation or drowning. Either way, you perish for lack of 'oxygen' or, in this case, sound money. Doc
Excellent interview with Bill Fleckenstein. I volunteer to be his lighting tech though in his next video 😂
Thanks Adam and Bill 🇳🇿🌿
cool, smart dude! thanks again, Wealthion!
Wow do I ever want part II, you sucked me in as usual.
Call me old school but I think Pink Floyd were way better before this guy left. Although in terms of second careers, way to go, Dude!
Very true, but I still prefer Gilmour.
Absolving corporate, hedge fund, and banking malfeasance once again. It’s not their fault, the Fed MADE them do it. 👎🏼
You are a great interviewer!! 👍
49:15 Wasn't the GFC a liquidity problem in the eurodollar system?
Fed quit buying Dept today. 10 year yield already 3.87. LIQUIDITY LIQUIDITY is out of control.
FLOATERS, IM GLAD YOU QUALIFIED THAT, Adam
Oh god! The mentioning of Lacy Hunt in this video, really the king of deflation? How long has he been calling for deflation now? Ever since inflation started he has been preaching deflation.
Always enjoy hearing from Bill....always agreed with his thoughts.
Love the black trousers. Went to my closet and pulled out Ralph Lauren wool pants, size 10 from 1976. Size 10 then was like a 6 now. I could wear them. I loved the look! Quelle surprise!
Entitlements will have to be scaled back in long-term in order for Govt to meet its long-term obligations
gov is totally incompetent. pensions won't be honored.
Andrew, why would Entitlements "have to be scaled back?"
Because, the U.S. Treasury physically prints the currency notes, why could they not continue to pay entitlements to the citizenry (nominally). Sure, I agree that purchasing power of those currency units will undoubtedly decrease significantly. But, why would the U.S. have to scale back their entitlement issuance?
I'm a Military Retiree & Disabled Vet. I cannot imagine the U.S. Govt ever decreasing my Pension not Compensation, in nominal terms... Though, I expect the purchasing power of Pension & Compensation to decrease.
I'm replying to you, in order to ask what you may have meant - e.g., further clarity.
Looking forward to your Reply.
Thanks.
I wish that would be the case. Most likely money will be printed and even large private companies and unions will be bailed out and their pensions saved at the cost of the dollar and the rest of our savings. Either way many peoples lifestyle and retirement will be greatly affected. Sad but the fact is they put too much faith in others controlling their money for the future. They should have taken the cash,lived within their means, and invested.
@@helenkessler6012
The only thing that you can do is cut back to the bone, start growing food, and perhaps move in with somebody that’s in the same situation.
There are going to be alternatives, but nothing that is going to be pleasant. May God bless you, and all the rest of the people struggling! 🙏
Pensions won’t be honored in real terms that for sure
Thank you, Adam.
Ur the best learning eve day ❤❤
There Will Be NO Trouble for the investors IF they buy Phisical Gold and Silver bullion as insurance against the collapse of the Fiat currencies. 🥇🥇🥈🥈
Love Bill. His insight is always amazing. Thanks Adam/Wealthion for providing us such incredible content!
I like how Bill Fleck skirts over the QE debate. Money was created, whether by the US Treasury backed by the belief in no limits due to QE, or by the Federal Reserve.
He was always my favorite guest when I used to listen to King World News in the years before Covid. The right combination of humility and hitting the important points of what's going on.
U.K. would not have had to pivot had the P.M. not rolled out those tax cuts. So not a good comparison to U.S.
thanx again, bill has best hair in finance.
Reality ceased when Grease span became chair of the Fed in 1987!
Who needs rules?
The little guys get rules!
48:00 yes, this. and the shift from asset inflation to CPI has been the shift from labor surplus and globalization to labor shortage and deglobalization, which are only getting worse.
Majority of consumption comes from upper 20% of earners (approximately).
Spending that fake asset inflation equity given to them by the Fed for doing nothing.
THEE BILL FLECKENSTEIN IS BACK!.
Adam please bring on Diego Perrali
Imagine what happens when they turn off the printing press.
Asset prices would go to real value where they should have always been. That would be a wonderful thing.
FDR’s Treasury Secretary (we never learn)-
We have tried spending money. We are spending more money than we have ever spent before and it does not work. … I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job, I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. … I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started and an enormous debt to boot!
Henry Morgenthau, Jr.
One of the best !
It is almost an hour long, would like more stuff but split it up into 20 minutes chunks so people can watch waiting for the bus, for the weather for the appointment and get digested in pieces
Very good video. Very informative.
Great part 1.
I think the key going forward is the price of oil. The oil price effects everything the the consumer buys and needs.
There will be no big presents under the Xmas tree this year, maybe a lump of coal 🤔.
But @Wayne Faulkner, in Europe we want a lump of coal this winter.
An economy built on reliance on consumption is doomed to fail.
"Highly efficient, very brittle", exactly decribes Fiat Currency Contracts.., and therefore exactly what happens if transactions are corrupted, it breaks under stress. (Another feature of tuning harmonics in Reciproction-recirculation pulse-evolution differentiates integrated Ecology)
bonds will be like fiat in your bank, once collapse happens you will have 0 money, and then you start working for digital.
GREAT INTERVIEW !!!! SUPER INFORMATIVE !!!! 👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
The government can sell assets to cover entitlements. Or they can not tax income from retires. All kinds of solutions are available.
Thank you
Here's the answer to your question about whether or not the economy can handle fed funds rate above 4%: the "real" economy can, and the "phony" economy cannot. Zombie companies, and marginal companies that were just barely making it at a 0.5% fed funds rate, will obviously die. Healthy companies that make real things and provide real services will do just fine, as long as they haven't taken on too much debt for non-productive crap, like buying back their own shares...
The bond market would rally, and it likely would stick, because the demographic trends have never been more anemic. Sure, supply side inflation might always be a threat, but with growth a sub 2%, rates only need to be slightly above that. And once supply side inflation has been subdued, rates can move towards ZIRP and NIRP. Again, the demographics have determined this time and time again with labor participation and workforce growth.
this Bill guy is that smart please get him back.
If California's largest pension fund Calpers gets into the same trouble at in England, don't you think the Fed will consider that a crisis and re-ignite QE?
Great points but at 31:15 I’d argue the only reason the pound bounced was because the English govt relented and reversed course on the tax breaks for the rich otherwise I think it would have kept dropping
BOE hasn't bought £65 billion it has only put in a few billion so far.
Good interview/ smart guy
It is a system with a positive feedback loop, so trends tend to accelerate. And there is no stable system out there with a positive feedback loop...
You need a house to live in so you only worry about its current value when you need to sell it and because it has dropped in price there is a chance it is worth less than you still owe on your mortgage. In which case you have to fund the difference.
Bill has perfect hair!
He’s got that “ I think I’ll climb Mt. Everest this afternoon “ kind of hair.
Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 ❤️
Unfortunately although I like Bill I can never understand what he is explaining in a mechanistic fashion about how the bond market works. Always thought the treasury can create bonds Tbills and federal reserve prints currency and buys the bonds. That can be inflationary. If the stop then interest rates go up. But then federal reserve will have to forgive the interest on the bonds as government interest payments rise. About all I know. An explanatory episode on how bond market works would be nice
Bill must surf....gives me that vibe
34:01 is exactly what happened today. The fed is backpedaling ever so slightly.
You left out that the problems started in UK when the new leader ship announced sweeping tax cuts, why was this left out?
Actually, I did mention it specifically starting at 26:30
OK I saw it, thumbs up. But I think you should’ve mentioned it with your opening statement because like he said it was the main trigger of the problems in UK
Gahhh that moment when you check when the interview came out cause you want part two and see that it’s today 😢
Basically we learned here that the stock market may go up in the near future...or it may go down...or it may just stay the same. With that information you can now move forward with confidence.
We need unemployment at 10 and a 2 year at 5 minimum and mortgages over 9 to just slow it all down
Bill’s be hair is magnificent!
Well I didn't understand all that, but it sure sounds like one big cluster fluck to me!
what is meant when he refers to "Tape Bombs"???
Surprising bad company news that causes stock prices to fall
"Single digit midget" @ 3:40
I love Fleckenstein.
Is Bill one of The Beach Boys or Eagles😂
Looks like a record collection under the tv?
SIMPLY AMAZING ! DANS LE MILLE
martin armstrong reckons we are at a 5000 year low in interest rates
Enjoy the interlude
The global economy runs on oil, gas and coal, not credit.
hmm, there sure were a generous amount of "idunno" responses being offered in this discussion .. which just comes off as guarded speculation all the way around. pretty challenging to plot a course through unchartered waters, eh. 🤨
We bought in 2019 and refinanced in Jan 2022 at 2.25%. yoy our city is up over 18% for SFR, and homes continue to sell theough. Since purchasing, our house has gone up nearly 40%. We cannot afford to buy new in our area now, and we’re feeling that even with a 5-10% pullback over the next two years, we are not in a housing crash locally. Of course, things can change yet we only have 1.5 months of inventory at present. Our pricing is following same pattern of last 10+ years. I suppose things can change, yet we’d need 4+ months of inventory first….maybe we’ll get there in 2023.
When the buyers are prohibited (via rates) the housing stock will fall.
Gone up 40% since 19 that is the bubble that is being deflated.
@@mackakiwinz4353 in some cities, just not mine. Most headlines i read are inaccurate on this. Austin, Boise and Phoenix i think are pulling back. Still waiting for reality here to match the hype.
@@hopoutside What's your city?
Bill said zirp... dont recall hearing that on the youtube, got my attention. What about the 1.2t of maturing treasuries on the fed balance sheet in the next twelve months? You are saying the days of the fed manipulating treasury yields is over, yet doesnt the fed have an arsenal of cash for a "synthetic-QE" by re-purchasing treasuries? The 6Oct balance sheet will show what the fed did with 85b maturing treasuries over the past week.
The mini budget had less paperwork that hank paulson TARP bailout bill?