I know at some point a bull market ends and a bear begins, it goes on and on....I have a 7 figure ballpark goal and I intend spreading across maybe 50k - 150k on plummeting stocks, my question is how can I know when a market bottom has been reached?
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 14.3%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an advisor.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with the popularly Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
Thank you for the lead, searched Carol by her full name and spotted her consulting page after a few scrolls downwards, she seems highly professional having over 12 years of experience. amazing!
I don't think I ever remember seeing Jim this exasperated before - epic! To be fair, he's been spot-on for years; David completely wrong for the same amount of time.
My current holdings are: SCHD 5K Shares SOXQ 750 Shares, SCHG 750 shares, JEPQ 100 shares, VOO 275 shares and VGT. 275 shares. I'm 50 years old, FIRE and don't need the money, How best do i perserve my portfolio for my grand-children?
Having SCHD and JEPQ are smart additions in my opinion. it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals. Partnering with a fiduciary advisor can help streamline your strategy.
I’m currently working towards financial freedom with a focus on dividends & growth investing. Since 2014, I’ve built a portfolio made up of 30% NVDA, 25% SCHD, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy has helped me earn $49,000 a year in dividends. Back in 2014, I only earned $21 in dividends.
Melissa Elise Robinson is the licensed advisor I use and im just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
David is more academic than practical. To say no animal spirits are running through the bond market says as much. Where was David from December 2023 through Q1 2024? Jim, you are a blend of both, which makes your analysis incredibly insightful.
We have DEI, ESG, and work-from-home demands all destroying productivity. We also have a shift from full-time jobs to part-time jobs, and a shift from private sector jobs to government jobs. With all that in mind, it should be clear that productivity is not rising at all, regardless of what the official stats say. To add insult to injury, David must know that the productivity estimates are built of the GDP estimates, and David himself regards the GDP estimates as nonsense, he favours GDI instead. Then there's the likely depreciation of the dollar and rising cost of commodities in the months/years ahead... not to mention the growing deficit spending and likely monetization of the debt at some point. IMO aggregate supply is going to contract, not expand as David argues, and we are heading into a severe stagflation by the end of 2025.
Prodictivity inherently lags organisation change. What happens is you reduce or lay off your policy, assurance and management overheads first. This gives a temporary increase in productivity. However these roles exist for a reason... so what happens long term?
He is saying that bond yields will stay the same or go up a little bit, so the yield from bonds well covers the loss in price. Both seems to think that stocks are in a bubble, that's why they dont recommend stocks except David said he likes utilities
Just a comment! Both Gentlemen seem to accept government statistics? I surely do not understand the acceptance of what are arguably FALSE estimates! Please tell me how INTELLIGENT people base decisions on what I deem as mostly FALSE DATA?
Yeah but there's plenty of data that non-government organizations report (e.g. Institute for Supply Management, ADP, Global S&P). And eventually the BLS do come clean with their data even if it is up to a year late.
@@bobbobertson7568 Eventually? EVENTUALLY!!?? Maybe the truth comes out? However, in the interim WHAT HAPPENS? NOT good enough! My base case is that ALL propaganda by our government is mostly FALSE. It is every one fir themselves...
No disrespect to Jim but having Luke Gromen's reality based sovereign,historical, and political analysis, would have been a better counter to Rosenberg's economic fundamentals. Since David doesn't hear anyone but his own voice
Good discussion. A big fan of all of these guys. Good points on both sides,.. except David is kidding himself if he thinks that; 1. inflation is at 2% and 2. that the deficit doesn't matter,.. that it's no longer stimulative. I could argue that the deficit, even though it's not increasing significantly YOY (David's reasoning to why inflation is 2% and not increasing) is propping up the economy. And that without the current 8% of GDP deficit,... the economy would be in recession. From QTM, the equation of exchange (assuming velocity is constant) says Inflation = dM% - drealGDP% When bank loan generation to loan payoff nets near zero then deficit spending takes on the roll of money supply generation. The recipients of government deficit spending aren't obligated it pay it back,.. and even though there's a treasury eventually tied to the deficit spending,... the government never pays off its debt,.... so the money supply generated by the government debt can never return to thin air. So inflation becomes a function of deficit spending (not the change in deficit spending) minus the real growth in GDP. Or Inflation = dDeficitSpending% - drealGDP% = 8% - 3% = 5%. With any adjustments possibly being accounted for in velocity changes. Bottom line,.. I agree with Jim,. we're not going into a recession as long as the government is deficit spending 8% of GDP,.. and why we have sticky inflation. They deficit spend to get us out of recessions,.... they've been force feeding the recession medicine for the last 4 years before we're even sick. If we do fall into recession and they square deficit spending,.. we'll have very high inflation. From the equation of exchange above,... we can see that we could grow our way to a lower debt to GDP ratio and eventually a balanced budget if the government just reduced deficit spending to below real GDP growth rate. And this could be done by canceling the "Inflation Exacerbation Act",.. drill baby drilling to reduce energy costs, and private sector pro-growth policy. But the people in the government will never realize this. What I do see happening down the road is the US turning into Japan. The Fed being forced to buy a large share of the debt and the some kind of yield curve control. Because the debt and therefore the interest is already too high,.. we may see this sooner rather than later. So although I agree with Jim, I don't see a recession and inflation could go higher,.... I do agree with Dave that yields do historically pop higher after the first rate cut,... and the can't afford interest rates at this level and they'll have to come down. How the bond vigilantes and the Fed react is to be seen. Since I do have a large holding of T bills and a growing bond position (I've been trading),.. and some gold and some high growth equities,.... I'm surprised and glad they both say bonds are a decent investment. Although I believe Jim would stay a little closer to the notes than David.
1. Real inflation is indeed over 2%. However, the financial system and economy, to our detriments, functions on government statistics. 2. Deficits don't matter right now. Despite record government deficits, the bond market is willing to buy long treasuries at below 5%. This fact re-enforces the first point. For all the deficit spending, main street has not benefitted much from it. Job growth is very weak, with much of the hiring done by all levels of governments and the part time sector. After bottoming last year, the unemployment rate has been rising most of this year. I still believe that an economy as indebted as ours simply can not escape the inevitable hard landing after several years of higher borrowing costs. As Rosenberg would say, the business cycle has not been repealed, only delayed.
@@toinengwyn3935 "2, Deficits don't matter right now. Despite record government deficits, the bond market is willing to buy long treasuries at below 5%." 1. I agree they don't benefit main street positively,.. at this point, the unprecedented and originally unnecessary 50% increase in spending in 2021, 22, 23, 24 above the 2019 outlays, this current and ongoing 8% of GDP deficit spending adding $2 trillion to the debt each year (mainly to buy votes) is akin to the effects of drugs on a drug addict. The drugs are only needed now to avoid the withdrawal symptoms and pain of not having them. There is no high that comes from it. (I have no experience in drug addiction just using a metaphor from elsewhere,.. so if this is not the case, my apologies to all the pillars of the community drug addicts.) Since the real economy is only growing at about 2 to 3% even with thisinsane 8% of GDP deficit spending,.. if the 8% were stopped,... the economy could shrink by as much as 5%. This kind of deficit spending would have to be weaned off slowly,.. in tandem with policies that reduce prices,.. ie open up supply chains,.. particularly in the fossil fuel industry, the lifeblood of all economies,.. the prices of which ALL other prices are founded,....remove barriers to internal reserves of resources that are needed and dominated by other countries,..... policies that incentivize the private sector to invest in capital, increase productivity,... to name a few. This would get the US on the path to reducing debt to GDP ratio None of kackles' policies will do this. 2. I never said there wasn't a market for treasuries at 5%. But that doesn't translate to deficits being good. A. Deficit spending is never good. It should only be used during recessions. It should never be used when the economy is supposedly "doing great". B. America can't afford to pay the interest at 5%. The interest expense this year now exceeds the defense budget. And it will only grow. They'll have to issue treasuries to pay the interest on the treasuries already issued. This is unsustainable. MMT doesn't work. It's nonsense. Japan is destroying it's currency because of this kind of MMT. And the difference between Japan and the US is,.. Japan generally has a current account surplus. Which means it takes in large amounts of foreign reserves which offsets some of its debt. When you net these out,.. Japan's debt to GDP of over 200% actually is on par with the US's of about 120%. It can use those reserves to buy bonds from the US at 5% and elsewhere,. and why Japan is one of the largest holders of US debt. The US on the other hand has an annual trade deficit of from $750 billion to $1 trillion. As long as the eurodollar market is willing to accept dollars for its goods and the world economy keeps growing and the dollar maintains reserve currency status,.. and the US pays a high enough interest rate,... the US can issue treasuries (which is the same thing as printing dollars) in the short term. But every one of these things are currently in a precarious state. The US is killingthe golden goose,.. committing economicsuicide on the current democratMMTpath that deficits don't matter.
You say you are long bonds and bills. You also say you calculate an inflation rate of 5%. I conclude from this that you are satisfied to take a bath on your portfolio.
@@jamespier7801 I said,.. "I have a large holding of T bills and a growing bond position (I've been trading),.. and some gold and some high growth equities,...." I also said the US could become Japan if it can't get deficit spending under control. If you're not aware if what's been going on in Japan for the last few decades,.. It has maintained a huge fiscal deficit problem like the US. Internal inflation is relatively low and the yield curve is significantly lower than the US's because the BOJ buys up a large portion of the annual debt and applies yield curve control. Externally it's destroying the Yen compared to other currencies,.. but the difference between it and the US is,.. that Japan generally is a net exporter and receives a large amount of forex reserves,.. largely in US dollars.... And it uses those reserves to buy US treasuries paying 4 to 5%. They are the largest player in the Yen carry trade. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt. When should you buy bonds??? When the yield curve is high and you expect it to fall. On the convexity you can make large capital gains on the bond prices,... 50 to 200% depending on the duration and the yield you buy at.
He's just early. A'lot of folks underestimated just how much money was sloshing around in the economy after FED pump/government stimulus. Taking a while for that to dry up but it's about done.
To talk about the bond market as being immune from animal spirits and just ignore the bond bubble post 2020 in the "lower for longer regime" is absurd.
“Goolsby is the sharpest guy on the FOMC”? 😂😂😂😂😂 Goolsby is an ideologue. If you’re off by more than 2 years forecasting a recession, how is that distinguished from being 100% wrong?
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
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It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
Wealth building and financial freedom are attainable with the right knowledge and tools. Using proper financial strategies and products is key to growing and sustaining long-term wealth.. glad to know you want others to succeed
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Gold never wins Gold never looses Gold is real money and Gold never changes Fiat goes up Fiat goes down Fiat is the root cause of inflation and Fiat ultimately always dies
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I used to depend on UA-cam videos but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I found her page by searching for her entire name online. After that, I emailed her and we set up a meeting so we could talk; I'm currently waiting on her response.
Rosenberg is too mechanical. He’s missing the point that Bianco is getting at in which there’s animal spirits in all tradable assets and the script of the last 40 years doesn’t always repeat indefinitely.
I've been long TLT and ZROZ this last year. All signs we are headed towards a slow down, if not recession, unless you believe more AI voodoo is going to keep economy and stock market growing. An oil shock would be temporary and would just hasten economic crash a la 2008 which also ended in deflation.
The "Multiple" in the bond market is just real rates. It's a confidence measure in inflation tampering efforts. Just like the multiple is a measure in earnings growth potential. What an asinine comparison.
!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a beginner investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $100k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
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Awesome video! I was blown away by the recent economic data! There seems to be uncertainty over inflation and the U.S. stock market is at a crucial crossroads. Despite growing concerns among investors, the economy shows signs of resilience which could help Bitcoin remain stable. Interestingly, the crypto market, which is usually correlated with the U.S. stock market, has been moving in the opposite direction. BTC and the Nasdaq are currently bouncing back. However, with the sentiment changing fast now is the perfect time to get into the crypto market..... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
I think you guys are in La La Land or you’re simply too rich and out of touch. Inflation is still ridiculously high - by ALL standards. Property tax, insurance, healthcare and still GROCERIES. Gas being down .30/gallon does not make up for all the increases. Milk is still $4/gallon what on earth are you all talking about??
Bianco literally brought this up to the other two were trust fund babies. And it clearly shows in there like real world analysis might as well. I’ve had Paul Krugman come on when you say that fiscal policy is no longer stimulative.
I know at some point a bull market ends and a bear begins, it goes on and on....I have a 7 figure ballpark goal and I intend spreading across maybe 50k - 150k on plummeting stocks, my question is how can I know when a market bottom has been reached?
investors like you should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 14.3%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an advisor.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with the popularly Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
Thank you for the lead, searched Carol by her full name and spotted her consulting page after a few scrolls downwards, she seems highly professional having over 12 years of experience. amazing!
I don't think I ever remember seeing Jim this exasperated before - epic! To be fair, he's been spot-on for years; David completely wrong for the same amount of time.
Thanks for putting this in words.. David had the whole sole agenda to counter Jim no matter what 😂
My current holdings are: SCHD 5K Shares SOXQ 750 Shares, SCHG 750 shares, JEPQ 100 shares, VOO 275 shares and VGT. 275 shares. I'm 50 years old, FIRE and don't need the money, How best do i perserve my portfolio for my grand-children?
Having SCHD and JEPQ are smart additions in my opinion. it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals. Partnering with a fiduciary advisor can help streamline your strategy.
I’m currently working towards financial freedom with a focus on dividends & growth investing. Since 2014, I’ve built a portfolio made up of 30% NVDA, 25% SCHD, 15% VOO and over 30% in digital assets, thanks to my CFA. This strategy has helped me earn $49,000 a year in dividends. Back in 2014, I only earned $21 in dividends.
Well it seems like a lot of your interest is riding on your source, I could really get well accustomed to your viewpoint, get me involved.
Melissa Elise Robinson is the licensed advisor I use and im just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
This podcast was more informative than any lecture done period the end. Thanks guys. I learned a lot yolo.
Great analysis from 3 Great Gurus! I would love to hear more Bill Fleckenstein on more UA-cam and Rumble videos for such wisdom!
David is more academic than practical. To say no animal spirits are running through the bond market says as much. Where was David from December 2023 through Q1 2024? Jim, you are a blend of both, which makes your analysis incredibly insightful.
Great debate Bill. I'm in Jim's camp.
Great job, guys. Please keep up the good work. I follow you all.
Thanks Jim. Nice.evening listening this side of the pond.
good debate. I am more convinced by Bianco.
Pure gold! "every guru is right about some thing. You find those some things, see how they fit together and go from there"
Rosenberg has been calling for a recession since I was born...
100% agree.
HAHA...
Careful with the rhetoric, I remember the same being said in Sep 07
I love Bianco
Jim in his best, and always!
That was great! Thank you all
Jim’s right 25 seconds into this !
We have DEI, ESG, and work-from-home demands all destroying productivity. We also have a shift from full-time jobs to part-time jobs, and a shift from private sector jobs to government jobs.
With all that in mind, it should be clear that productivity is not rising at all, regardless of what the official stats say.
To add insult to injury, David must know that the productivity estimates are built of the GDP estimates, and David himself regards the GDP estimates as nonsense, he favours GDI instead.
Then there's the likely depreciation of the dollar and rising cost of commodities in the months/years ahead... not to mention the growing deficit spending and likely monetization of the debt at some point.
IMO aggregate supply is going to contract, not expand as David argues, and we are heading into a severe stagflation by the end of 2025.
Good debate!
"Have you ever heard the term 'animal spirits' applied to a bond investor?" LMAO
Awesome. Three of my favorite Smart-Guys to watch.
one things for sure, David loves his bonds alot, hes very protective of them xD
Jimbo, we are so back
Stellar group. All well respected3.
Good question ! Host
Thank you sir!
Prodictivity inherently lags organisation change.
What happens is you reduce or lay off your policy, assurance and management overheads first. This gives a temporary increase in productivity. However these roles exist for a reason... so what happens long term?
Jim said yield decreasing already priced in, but still buy bonds anyway? How that goes with no landing thesis, and inflation rising?
He is saying that bond yields will stay the same or go up a little bit, so the yield from bonds well covers the loss in price. Both seems to think that stocks are in a bubble, that's why they dont recommend stocks except David said he likes utilities
Detective of money politics following this content cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank from Melbourne Australia
Just a comment! Both Gentlemen seem to accept government statistics? I surely do not understand the acceptance of what are arguably FALSE estimates! Please tell me how INTELLIGENT people base decisions on what I deem as mostly FALSE DATA?
Yeah but there's plenty of data that non-government organizations report (e.g. Institute for Supply Management, ADP, Global S&P). And eventually the BLS do come clean with their data even if it is up to a year late.
@@bobbobertson7568 Eventually? EVENTUALLY!!?? Maybe the truth comes out? However, in the interim WHAT HAPPENS? NOT good enough! My base case is that ALL propaganda by our government is mostly FALSE. It is every one fir themselves...
No disrespect to Jim but having Luke Gromen's reality based sovereign,historical, and political analysis, would have been a better counter to Rosenberg's economic fundamentals. Since David doesn't hear anyone but his own voice
Gromen is a charlatan.
@@jamespier7801 Accusations with no proof shows a lack of character.
@@jamespier7801TLT baggie spotted
Good discussion. A big fan of all of these guys.
Good points on both sides,.. except David is kidding himself if he thinks that;
1. inflation is at 2% and
2. that the deficit doesn't matter,.. that it's no longer stimulative.
I could argue that the deficit, even though it's not increasing significantly YOY (David's reasoning to why inflation is 2% and not increasing) is propping up the economy.
And that without the current 8% of GDP deficit,... the economy would be in recession.
From QTM, the equation of exchange (assuming velocity is constant) says
Inflation = dM% - drealGDP%
When bank loan generation to loan payoff nets near zero then deficit spending takes on the roll of money supply generation.
The recipients of government deficit spending aren't obligated it pay it back,.. and even though there's a treasury eventually tied to the deficit spending,... the government never pays off its debt,.... so the money supply generated by the government debt can never return to thin air.
So inflation becomes a function of deficit spending (not the change in deficit spending) minus the real growth in GDP.
Or
Inflation = dDeficitSpending% - drealGDP% = 8% - 3% = 5%.
With any adjustments possibly being accounted for in velocity changes.
Bottom line,.. I agree with Jim,. we're not going into a recession as long as the government is deficit spending 8% of GDP,.. and why we have sticky inflation.
They deficit spend to get us out of recessions,.... they've been force feeding the recession medicine for the last 4 years before we're even sick.
If we do fall into recession and they square deficit spending,.. we'll have very high inflation.
From the equation of exchange above,... we can see that we could grow our way to a lower debt to GDP ratio and eventually a balanced budget if the government just reduced deficit spending to below real GDP growth rate.
And this could be done by canceling the "Inflation Exacerbation Act",.. drill baby drilling to reduce energy costs, and private sector pro-growth policy.
But the people in the government will never realize this.
What I do see happening down the road is the US turning into Japan.
The Fed being forced to buy a large share of the debt and the some kind of yield curve control.
Because the debt and therefore the interest is already too high,.. we may see this sooner rather than later.
So although I agree with Jim, I don't see a recession and inflation could go higher,.... I do agree with Dave that yields do historically pop higher after the first rate cut,... and the can't afford interest rates at this level and they'll have to come down.
How the bond vigilantes and the Fed react is to be seen.
Since I do have a large holding of T bills and a growing bond position (I've been trading),.. and some gold and some high growth equities,....
I'm surprised and glad they both say bonds are a decent investment. Although I believe Jim would stay a little closer to the notes than David.
1. Real inflation is indeed over 2%. However, the financial system and economy, to our detriments, functions on government statistics.
2. Deficits don't matter right now. Despite record government deficits, the bond market is willing to buy long treasuries at below 5%. This fact re-enforces the first point.
For all the deficit spending, main street has not benefitted much from it. Job growth is very weak, with much of the hiring done by all levels of governments and the part time sector. After bottoming last year, the unemployment rate has been rising most of this year. I still believe that an economy as indebted as ours simply can not escape the inevitable hard landing after several years of higher borrowing costs. As Rosenberg would say, the business cycle has not been repealed, only delayed.
@@toinengwyn3935
"2, Deficits don't matter right now. Despite record government deficits, the bond market is willing to buy long treasuries at below 5%."
1. I agree they don't benefit main street positively,.. at this point, the unprecedented and originally unnecessary 50% increase in spending in 2021, 22, 23, 24 above the 2019 outlays, this current and ongoing 8% of GDP deficit spending adding $2 trillion to the debt each year (mainly to buy votes) is akin to the effects of drugs on a drug addict.
The drugs are only needed now to avoid the withdrawal symptoms and pain of not having them. There is no high that comes from it.
(I have no experience in drug addiction just using a metaphor from elsewhere,.. so if this is not the case, my apologies to all the pillars of the community drug addicts.)
Since the real economy is only growing at about 2 to 3% even with thisinsane 8% of GDP deficit spending,.. if the 8% were stopped,... the economy could shrink by as much as 5%.
This kind of deficit spending would have to be weaned off slowly,.. in tandem with policies that reduce prices,.. ie open up supply chains,.. particularly in the fossil fuel industry, the lifeblood of all economies,.. the prices of which ALL other prices are founded,....remove barriers to internal reserves of resources that are needed and dominated by other countries,..... policies that incentivize the private sector to invest in capital, increase productivity,... to name a few.
This would get the US on the path to reducing debt to GDP ratio
None of kackles' policies will do this.
2. I never said there wasn't a market for treasuries at 5%. But that doesn't translate to deficits being good.
A. Deficit spending is never good. It should only be used during recessions.
It should never be used when the economy is supposedly "doing great".
B. America can't afford to pay the interest at 5%.
The interest expense this year now exceeds the defense budget. And it will only grow.
They'll have to issue treasuries to pay the interest on the treasuries already issued.
This is unsustainable. MMT doesn't work. It's nonsense.
Japan is destroying it's currency because of this kind of MMT.
And the difference between Japan and the US is,.. Japan generally has a current account surplus.
Which means it takes in large amounts of foreign reserves which offsets some of its debt.
When you net these out,.. Japan's debt to GDP of over 200% actually is on par with the US's of about 120%.
It can use those reserves to buy bonds from the US at 5% and elsewhere,. and why Japan is one of the largest holders of US debt.
The US on the other hand has an annual trade deficit of from $750 billion to $1 trillion.
As long as the eurodollar market is willing to accept dollars for its goods and the world economy keeps growing and the dollar maintains reserve currency status,.. and the US pays a high enough interest rate,... the US can issue treasuries (which is the same thing as printing dollars) in the short term.
But every one of these things are currently in a precarious state.
The US is killingthe golden goose,.. committing economicsuicide on the current democratMMTpath that deficits don't matter.
You say you are long bonds and bills. You also say you calculate an inflation rate of 5%. I conclude from this that you are satisfied to take a bath on your portfolio.
@@jamespier7801
I said,..
"I have a large holding of T bills and a growing bond position (I've been trading),.. and some gold and some high growth equities,...."
I also said the US could become Japan if it can't get deficit spending under control.
If you're not aware if what's been going on in Japan for the last few decades,..
It has maintained a huge fiscal deficit problem like the US.
Internal inflation is relatively low and the yield curve is significantly lower than the US's because the BOJ buys up a large portion of the annual debt and applies yield curve control.
Externally it's destroying the Yen compared to other currencies,.. but the difference between it and the US is,.. that Japan generally is a net exporter and receives a large amount of forex reserves,.. largely in US dollars....
And it uses those reserves to buy US treasuries paying 4 to 5%.
They are the largest player in the Yen carry trade.
Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt.
When should you buy bonds???
When the yield curve is high and you expect it to fall.
On the convexity you can make large capital gains on the bond prices,... 50 to 200% depending on the duration and the yield you buy at.
this will be good, giant bond bull vs bond bear
I stopped following Mr. Rosenberg’s view. He may be a brilliant economist, but we can’t base our investment decisions on his views.
A good economist would not always be wrong...
What happened to Economists don’t predict the future 😂 They only study the past ?
He's just early. A'lot of folks underestimated just how much money was sloshing around in the economy after FED pump/government stimulus. Taking a while for that to dry up but it's about done.
💯
There's not much evidence he's a brilliant economist, frankly.
And as far as actionable investment advice; when in his career has he been right?
To talk about the bond market as being immune from animal spirits and just ignore the bond bubble post 2020 in the "lower for longer regime" is absurd.
“Goolsby is the sharpest guy on the FOMC”? 😂😂😂😂😂 Goolsby is an ideologue. If you’re off by more than 2 years forecasting a recession, how is that distinguished from being 100% wrong?
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it's too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it's important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market's waves. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
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Wealth building and financial freedom are attainable with the right knowledge and tools. Using proper financial strategies and products is key to growing and sustaining long-term wealth.. glad to know you want others to succeed
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
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My 2 cents, leave Rosie on mute.
America can't depend on having the world's reserve currency any more, they have to earn their way now.
The plane doesn't have wheels so it better not land.
Dave will eventually be correct
Eventually
I don't care if you were born on Mars Kamila.
Inflation has done its damage, most people are worse off than before.
So Who is the Bull, and Who is the Bear ?
Blanco is bond bear, Rosenberg bond bull
@@bobbobertson7568 Thank you !
Lightweight Bianco of his league against Rosie.
Why even waste time with these Charlatans Jim?
because one of them is more right or less wrong than the other:)
Why is Bianco always on the wrong side of trades?
So you can pick his opposite trade and make fortune of money 👍🏼
Gold wins, either way!
Gold never wins
Gold never looses
Gold is real money and
Gold never changes
Fiat goes up
Fiat goes down
Fiat is the root cause of inflation and
Fiat ultimately always dies
Expect the dollar to drop like a bomb! 😃😃😀😀
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I used to depend on UA-cam videos but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
That's impressive ! I could really use the expertise of one of these advisors. Any chance you could recommend one?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Stacy Lynn Staples’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I found her page by searching for her entire name online. After that, I emailed her and we set up a meeting so we could talk; I'm currently waiting on her response.
Rosenberg is too mechanical. He’s missing the point that Bianco is getting at in which there’s animal spirits in all tradable assets and the script of the last 40 years doesn’t always repeat indefinitely.
I've been long TLT and ZROZ this last year. All signs we are headed towards a slow down, if not recession, unless you believe more AI voodoo is going to keep economy and stock market growing. An oil shock would be temporary and would just hasten economic crash a la 2008 which also ended in deflation.
That David dude is so rude, kept interrupting Jim. Jim has been very civilized.
The "Multiple" in the bond market is just real rates. It's a confidence measure in inflation tampering efforts. Just like the multiple is a measure in earnings growth potential. What an asinine comparison.
Economists just observe, they don't do anything.
Fred Funs going to 1.93%
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David just drones on and on. Also has fantasies about AI.
David puts me to sleep
!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a beginner investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of
information can be a big hurdle. I've been
making more than $100k passively by just
investing through an advisor, and I don't have
to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my
finances remain secure. So I really don't blame
people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analyzing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted based on thorough research and years of practical experience.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier. How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
David since 2020 is zero correct
Awesome video! I was blown away by the recent economic data! There seems to be uncertainty over inflation and the U.S. stock market is at a crucial crossroads. Despite growing concerns among investors, the economy shows signs of resilience which could help Bitcoin remain stable. Interestingly, the crypto market, which is usually correlated with the U.S. stock market, has been moving in the opposite direction. BTC and the Nasdaq are currently bouncing back. However, with the sentiment changing fast now is the perfect time to get into the crypto market..... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Francine duguay program is widely available online..
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Francine's trade signal service.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
The clarity and precision in Francine market predictions are astounding. I'm so grateful to have found her reviews here on UA-cam as well.
I think you guys are in La La Land or you’re simply too rich and out of touch. Inflation is still ridiculously high - by ALL standards. Property tax, insurance, healthcare and still GROCERIES. Gas being down .30/gallon does not make up for all the increases. Milk is still $4/gallon what on earth are you all talking about??
Bianco literally brought this up to the other two were trust fund babies. And it clearly shows in there like real world analysis might as well. I’ve had Paul Krugman come on when you say that fiscal policy is no longer stimulative.