Watching Tropical Atlantic as June Ends and July Begins
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- Опубліковано 23 чер 2024
- #weather #hurricanes #hurricaneseason
Seeing some signs of the deep tropics getting a little more active despite the abundance of SAL around. Once we get into July, we may see more of this activity pick up due to the very favorable SST pattern.
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I'm tired of seeing facebook meteorologists calling this season a bust literally 3 weeks in.
Well it IS acting like any other year with normal sheer, dry air and nothing special given the well stated ideal conditions.
this season is FAR from canceled. Climatology says where we're at is perfectly normal. I do believe in the coming weeks many KEY changes will begin commencing.😊
I haven’t seen any of that kinda talk anywhere.
Weatherman plus said there's not going to be any hurricane activity until the end of August. I don't know where he's getting his information from but most people have rejected that. Just on his program today he said the tropical Atlantic is closed.
He’s most likely correct. We really don’t see this stuff until then usually..
Yes please, Barbados
91 was Alberto
The SOI has tanked this month indicating the atmosphere is in a neutral state but trending more El Nino like, and not helping us push towards La Nina as yet with people on X talking about somewhat of a warmup in the Nino 3.4 region which I've seen too on some of the websites. Not a great look for an active Atlantic this year if the warmth continues to build off of eastern Canada and the atmosphere halts the transition towards La Nina.
Fun fact: major landfalls on the CONUS historically have been associated with cool neutral/weak La Nina states (see 2005 and 2017 as recent examples).
The SST anomalies off of eastern Canada are hot too and it even looks hotter than the deep tropics. Whether that's due to the heat dome over the NE US or has been there from before it through now is a question. If it was warmed up by the air temperatures related to the heat dome it should cool down some, and then would I think we're still in for an extremely hyperactive season. However, if the warm anomalies were there before the then I don't think it's a classic look in the Atlantic for an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. A busted or a successful forecast for this year?
Getting a preview with no air conditioning today in south GA 😅
Hang in there! Hopefully, you get some rain this evening to cool things off
Things will happen big time...
When you are doing the comparison around the 1:50 mark, the horseshoe shape in the Atlantic was closer to Europe last year and this year is closer to us, for what it's worth. I first thought an errant pen had doodled in the Pacific, but... last year there was only the top part of the horseshoe there. This year it is a complete horseshoe and also extends into the land mass. Looks like it ends up in Africa.
Mrs Mark local news say we on break fr hurricane until the first weeks of August or later do you agreed with that
Don’t agree but you never know.
@@hurricanetrack Thanks you
Why is the water on the head of Yucatan always
cold
Upwelling from persistent southerly winds.
QBO is not favorable for the immediate future.
climatology is overpowerd. and its gonna cause us to get all our tropical cycles in a very short time period so. will likely be quiet for another month, then all heck will break lose come august like usual. nothing like being in the basin that has the sharpest spike on the planet. brief but powerful
Climatalogically speaking, that’s how it should be. Sucks but it is what it is.
@@S0nyToprano its a fact.
i tell people that i noticed all other basions have short but wide peaks and the atlantic has a tall and narrow peak. case in point. say every basion gets an even 40 storms.. the basions get all 40 storms within a 6 month period. the W pacific gets theres all year long i think i heard once.. and the Atlantic gets 95% of its storms over a 3 month period aka Aug-oct.
It doesn’t suck at all. I love tropical cyclones.