2023: A Year In Climate Change
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- Опубліковано 27 вер 2024
- A lot happened in the world of climate in 2023. Let's talk about it. Thanks to GiveWell for supporting the video. Get your first donation matched at www.givewell.org
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Music by Epidemic Sound: nebula.tv/epidemic
Some stock footage courtesy of Getty.
Edited by Luke Negus.
In this video I talk about the biggest climate news stories of 2023, covering the big climate news of the year: new scientific papers, temperature records being broken, COP28, human impacts of climate change, and the progress made this year to decarbonise the global economy.
Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Daniel Chen, Gary Stark, Martina Alini, Vernon Swanepoel, Adam Scott, Felix Winkler, CC, Ivari Tölp, Thomas Charbonnel, Mark Moore, Philipp Legner, Zoey O'Neill, Veronica Castello-Vooght, Heijde, Paul H and Linda L, Marcus Bosshard, Dan Sherman, Matthew Powell, Adrian Sand, Dan Nelson, The Cairene on Caffeine, Cody VanZandt, Igor Francetic, Daniel Irwin, bitreign33 , Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Dan Hanvey, Andrea De Mezzo.
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The fact that the first bit of good news was basically "we now know better what will go wrong" was a real punch in the gut. But I suppose knowing our models better is a good news anyway
The science types are pretty good at mapping what's going on.
Shame doing what the science types say would mean slightly less money going to already wealthy people. So our corporate overlords have unilaterally decided to not do anything the science types say.
@@Praisethesunson it would also mean a big change of the lifestyle of many people. Mass transit would be much cheaper than cars. Appartements much cheaper than singlr family homes. Meat much more expensive than vegeteriam food. In my opinion a positive change, but that s where we see the popular resistance against these policies.
There are aspects which wouldnt change human way of life though, like electricity generation and heating.
@@mohamedaminekoubaa5231 "Meat much more expensive than vegeterian food." If this means meat getting considerably more expensive, no thanks. If it means vegetarian food becoming cheaper, sure ig.
@@CarlosAM1meat is massively subsidized to keep it this cheap. Vegetarian food would get a bit cheaper though with economies of scale.
Don't forget the "good news" about China's solar panel farms.....that videos originally posted to China's social media showed were not even being plugged in....."Potemkin village" is the closest thing that describes the CCP's "green technology" developments. (to be fair, it's the entire country like that by this point) They have whole FIELDS of EVs (both ones for bikes, and ones for cars) just sitting out in the weather because they were only built to pad the numbers.
Man, the emperor penguins story is sad as hell 😥😭
Yeah, I really wish we could get them to shelter on land.
One of the islands around Antarctica would be great.
Unfortunately I don't know if the animals are capable of making that change unassisted.
And they haven't got the understanding of how unjust their situation is. That another animal has caused them this incredible loss of life. :(
I wish you would realize productions like this use "baby penguins" in the exact same way Powell used "babies in incubators" to take us to war over false pretenses. Actual science wouldn't need theatrics in the exact same way a vaccine to a pandemic doesnt need a free cheeseburger to incentivize it.
It can't be true. EVERY penguin chick died? They all drowned? Sorry, when you make statements like that, you lose all credibility. There may be ice loss. There may have been chicks that died, but when you exaggerate your claims to play on people's emotion, you expose your dishonesty.
@@borissmolden5040
No one said it was every chick, however the ice melted before the chicks fledged in 4 out of 5 nesting sites.
1 nesting site isn't enough for the species to survive in the long run if this keeps happening.
Tomorrow is Xmas eve in Northwestern Ontario, and we can still go physically touch grass in our front yards! Everything is fine!!
My brother took his boat out to go fishing today in the region.
@@swaggery we do have our lakes iced over, but barely… growing up we would have had 3’ of ice by now, instead last week we had 8” on a small shallow lake(freezes faster)
Yesterday went for a nice bike ride in 11 degrees Celsius. Western Canada. This is usually the snowiest, almost coldest time of year...where I'd need to wait for March for such temperatures.
I can still physically go and touch grass, still no snow
@Bundysvideos In Wisconsin we would have 3-5'. We got 6" max.
It’s Dec.23rd here in northern Michigan and there is literally no snow on the ground. I sure hope this opens people’s eyes to the reality of climate change.
Western swede here, we havent had a propper winter in a decade.
When I were young we had a snowy christmas every year, now we have a few days of snow and the rest is slush...
South Indian (Tamil) here, Got the worst floods in the history of Meteorology, one in my state Capital,Chennai, another one in the southernmost tip of India, where it rained 1000mm in 24 hours. That was THE RECORD FOR 24 HOURS RAIN AT THE Southern India. People are starting to wake up to climate Crisis
Southern Spain here, winter just straight up doesn't exist here anymore, it's a constant never ending summer
@@saipremkumar4787
Christ, and I complained about not having snow.
Stay safe bud!
Same in East Europe. The storm Pia which has a big potential for precipitation, because of the warming the snow is just for the high mountains. Low altitudes just rain.
And for Christmas the announced temperatures will reach 18C max.
And this scenario repeated in the last winter seasons..
Rather than just mentioning that James Hansen´s work is not in the mainstream of climate science, I´d love to hear your opinions on his work and why You don´t agree. I actually HOPE he is wrong, but haven´t found any good arguments against his work so far...
Dr Michael Mann criticized some of Dr Hansen's work. From what I understand Dr Mann didn't like to do it, but science is science.
Mann's response was thoroughly unconvincing to me. Most of his points hinge on the current climate models predictions disagreeing with Hansen, but central to Hansen's case is that climate models are underestimating aerosol forcing, so obviously they're not going to agree.
Maybe Hansen's approach is flawed, but having read Hansen's case that there's significant warning in the pipeline, and the rebuttal, I'm much more convinced by Hansen, as are many, though probably still a minority, of climate scientists.
While the scientific consensus may be that climate change is proceeding in line with expectation, those who invoke the
spectre of irreversible damage should not be dismissed out of hand. While the climate system may yet possess some resilience, the same cannot be said of our ecosystems, some of which have already suffered irreversible degradation, even collapse. In an era of convergent environmental crises, the framing of our predicament is crucial. Climate change is just one consequence of our unsustainable socioeconomic behaviours. Those who frame our precarious position primarily in terms of a climate crisis are missing the bigger picture.
Well said. The climate crisis is just one of many environmental problems of the anthropogenic mass extinction, and the various solutions to these may be contradictory, e. g. plastic packaging uses less emissions than paper, but causes more harm to marine life.
So do you save the polar bears, or the sea turtles? Sally LePage made a great video on this topic.
I believe claims of irreversible damage are usually dismissed more because they don't encourage people to act as much as if the irreversible damage is something in the future. It's a PR balance between hope and the gravity of the situation.
Yeah, there's a real effort to kindle hope in the newest generation, as they are more depressed than any other before. We need to make them have a hope their world can be saved, otherwise they'll just give up trying - and a lot of them are really doing that.
The United Nations do not say we are in an extinction period. Eco systems have come and gone ever since the world was formed. The earth has been around for 14.5 billion years and has seen high CO2 low CO2 high temps low temps etc etc. It is NOT FRAGILE. How can you think a gas in such minute quantities can cause the earth any problems at all. get real and start by not listening to this paid for mouth.
We are headed to a time of the pre cambrian i think it's called, mass extinction where it stayed a hot house earth for ten million years and killed 96% of all species, what is this talk of resilience? The earth has had five mass extinctions and in between a different organism was top dog, we either have a choice now, to stop driving or the next species that survives on the earth most probably won't be us.
A sixty litre tank of diesel has 636 kw's of energy in it, according to my last bill that would be 5.2 months of my electrical energy, a huge amount of energy to go for a sunday drive. Stop driving, for pleasure, is the only thing we can do immediately and has the greatest affect. With 20 years for this amount of energy to be able to work itself through the system there is no " hope" for the next generation, every day we keep going in this way the glass keeps overflowing.
While our system is responsible for this, any " ism" would have still used the amount of energy that was available from oil, it's the inability to change that we find ourselves and again and other ism would have the same but let's not forget, our precarious position right now is primarily a climate one, otherwise, pray tell what is the bigger picture?
We may have to cease using the monetary system we have, directly because of the climate, surely that's pretty big?
So an issue I take with this good news is that it does downplay how urgent this crisis is. Most people will think “oh not a crisis then? Fuck it let’s keep doing what we are doing then”
Ok guys time to get serious. My new years resolution for 2024 is to try and make a real positive impact (not just in behavior, veganism, recycling etc.). Donating a portion of my earnings to charities that help with climate justice and resilience, helping friends and family with growing food at home and planting native species of plants and maybe even try some politics stuff if i figure out how to do that with the most impact.
I encourage you all to try your best, instead of giving up. I know its hard against all the bad stuff, but we have to try our best.
It's a hard fight, I would recommend developing a product which does something essential that's eco friendly I've been fighting for a few years now it's a up hill battle. please join in the fight we need more soldiers.
Sooo I believe we are Ducked!!!
The best way to fight climate change is on the industrial level. You won't make much of a difference. The best thing you can do is to make this a bigger problem for politicians. They just react to us. The more pressure we put on them the more they will eventually listen. And also try to convince others members of the public but that is easier said than done.
@@STJukes We didn't stop abusing horses because of PETA, it was because cars where better. We didn't stop killing whales for blubber because it was wrong,bkerosene was better. The world changes when better products come to market and they are embraced. Most Commercial industry runs on 4% margins loss of market share changes industry or they die let's exploit that weakness by developing and supporting better products that just happen to be eco friendly.
@@STJukes and let's be honest government is in bed with big business. We have all the power people just need to realise we do.
At the edge of extinction only love remains.
Nature bats last 😮
I get that nuclear isn’t a quick fix, but I can’t imagine why we’re still not expanding its use.
Regulatory and NIMBYs
Nuclear is expensive. A lot of the renewables are turning out to be quite cheap, so the case for nuclear has grown weaker. But if nuclear makes sense (and can be proven to be safe, eg no Russian plants without containment buildings and no Japanese plants near major earthquake fault lines), it should be considered.
@@jitteryjet7525 The initial investment is expensive, running costs are lower. Also there's proposals to replace coal plants with fission plants due to most of that equipment being the same so cheaper. Also fission is proven to be safe, less people have died as a result of fission reactors per watr than have in the mines in order to build more renewables per watt.
@@jitteryjet7525
That's a lie.
@@oldineamiller9007 Everything I say is a lie ;-)
HOW on earth did i not get to hear about those baby penguins drowning!?! :O That is truly heart-breaking! and really hits home just how bad things have been getting but on a scale thats not too big for me to comprehend, while being totally devastating! and hitting me on an emotional level.
I do try my best to keep up to date by watching several climate focused youtube channels (no tv). Every week i'll have watched between 2-20 vids
I think if this information was wide-spread it would hit home to people in a way that numbers and facts just cannot -an entire year's worth of new-borns!
There is more of a threat however of baby penguins freezing to death since their downy covering doesn't repel rain!
If it is any consolation 1 of the 5 nesting sites did have at least some surviving chicks.
1 of 5 isn't enough if this happens every year.
main stream media doesn’t tell the truth, to many self interested billionaires to tell the truth, sadly.
@@jimthain8777 small consolation indeed. I hope the adult penguins can adapt -keep their chicks on solid ground, cos even if humans did everything we should be doing 100% from today, it'll still take time to reverse the climate from where it is and i can easily predict population collapse at such a low rate of survival
Sadly, bad things are happening on a scale way too big for the emperor penguins to understand.
I’m saddened to hear about the loss of the penguins. 😢
And that is just the start
@@xaviermaster1popstart star
Polar bears are next, very likely killed by home owners, as their ice is becoming water.
It's almost the end of the year and it was 23°C outside today. In Italy. What the hell. The past three years of weather have been mad. Don't get me wrong, climate change has been going on for decades. But at least here, it's as if a sudden shift in circulation occurred in 2021 and we've been having hot spells non-stop since.
Yeah the recent constant Atlantic anti-cyclones are very weird and the reason we've been having such warm and dry weather so often, No idea what causes it, only taht climate change is probably involved in making the pattern more common and that in 2021 things kicked off
Climate change is an exponential process, with positive feedback loops increasing the rapidity of change.
Climate is a BIG thing. Big things take a long time to respond to change.
Eventually the do respond. I think that is what we are seeing now, and in the near future.
Where do you live exactly? Because I’m Italian too and it’s 5 degrees here (north east). It’s definitely warmer than in the past, of course.
far south @@deaththekid3998
Still object when people claim "1850-1900" was "pre-industrial". The second half of the nineteenth century was highly industrial in Europe, the US (and Canada), and even Japan once the Meiji Restoration got underway, as well in various smaller countries around the world.
This is a great video with solid analysis. I have to say though, the releasing critical information about the world ending apocalypse we face in newsletters is the reason scientists are losing the messaging battles in the media.
Simon, you do a thorough, excellent job of summing the situation we are experiencing. Your channel is one of many inspirations for mine and I wish you (and our planet) all the best in 2024.
Fossil fuels (in the form of gas-fired power stations) contributed only 16% of Britain's total electricity generation over the past week. Renewables (mainly wind) contributed 59%. For mid-December this is pretty remarkable.
It has been exceptionally blowy this week. I think renewables (wind/solar/hydro) may actually have surpassed fossil fuels for the first time ever this year.
Please up video quality to 4K60fps :)
I think someone telling you a lie
You can't have "renewables" without fossil fuels, and you can't run an industrial economy on electricity alone.
@@klondike444 Not yet.
Thanks for the summary, Simon! And also for mentioning the weekly New Research compilation published on Skeptical Science by Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack!
No snow. Im in Canada. Im so tired
In Mexico a cad 5 huracane forme and hit ground in les that 24 hours, resulting in catastrophic damage to acapulco and the state of Guerrero
Yeah, that was insane!
I sure hope that was a rare event, or we're in a lot deeper trouble than we think we are.
May I ask, are you in Mexico?
Do you know how the situation has gone.
It looked DEVASTATING to the buildings, population and infrastructure.
You are a great voice and educator, have a good holiday.
Still no earthworms or fly larvae in Rome, Ga
Jimmy Greer aging Horticulturist and it is basically 70F on Christmas and been a few 80F Thanksgivings. Hardly any birds or bugs…it’s very very quiet especially for such a warm day.
But no one is freaking out except me…alone,..very alone. Even w family maybe more so…
Thank you for all you do and your studies I’ve followed.
Bravo to you
Cheers
Good luck in the future
and Merry Christmas!
Love your vids! I truly appreciate the work you’re doing!
That penguin story is so heartbreaking... The people who sowed fear surrounding nuclear power did so much damage.
There is no carbon neutrality without substantial investment in nuclear energy.
i think the accidents such as fukushima, sellafield, 3mile and chernobyl did the most for people's fears
@@kimwarburton8490 It all comes down to proper management and safety measures which have only gotten better since the days of 20th century reactor failures. Per gigawatt hour, nuclear is the least deadly form of electrical production we’ve ever had
@@PlanetZeroVideos i understand all that, i keep up to speed. Most people dont challenge their beliefs once cemented. the link to danger is too strong in the general public imo for a SMR roll-out and i think thats the only version of nuclear which can be built at the speed required
Dec 23 2023, in Northern Italy it's around 20-22° Celsius. What the fuck
@@SimonTmte that's nice, when I was a kid it used to snow here. We'd get -3° to 2 ° Celsius, so now going to a Christmas party with just a sweater because it's 20 ° is kinda worrying
Could you do a video about why Hansens paper is not plausible?
Love your videos Simon! I look forward to them every month.
I hadn't heard the news about emperor penguins dying out, and now I'm devastated. It's been bad enough that humans have been dying because of climate change, but I cannot stand for this to happen to penguins.
"Explicit carbon prices remain a necessary condition of ambitious climate policies” - IPCC SR15. Let's all talk about the need to price carbon, and work together to make our governments use Carbon Fee and Dividend to do it. Every future COP that fails to set a global, steadily rising carbon price floor is an absolute failure. Carbon pricing is only half the solution, but without it we will fail.
Even though Climate change is the No1 issue its the last on the click list... We need to change this is 2024
Literally Drowned, Bro the news about the Penguins is just so Sad
Cop28 is just a disaster. Your Climate Videos are stunning.
They served MEAT at the meeting this year and invited no speakers on plant-based eating which has been shown to be the single most significant way for all of us to massively reduce our carbon emissions. It's all empty virtue signaling at this point.
@@rasputozen That's for us normal people. The people at COP have control over the really huge emission causes.
I'm vegetarian and take transit, but I'd rather those people eat an all steak diet if they fix policy instead.
No. There's no hero to save the day in this type of problem. We all contribute to this thing and it's important for us all to hold ourselves (and others) accountable. Also, vegetarian is no better than a typical omnivore. Look into the dairy and egg industries. They're as bad as the meat industries, both in terms of emissions and animal cruelty.@@tristanridley1601
@@tristanridley1601thank you for acknowledging the different priorities at different scales, even if we can all do better ultimately…
I often wonder who was running around checking the ocean temperatures before the industrial age. Just some food for thought😊
4:03 I have read this article and then the study that according to Trenberth would disprove the paleoclimate sensitivity Hansen's paper is based on. It turns out that, of the 8 latest models that give a higher paleoclimate sensitivity, the cited study has only examined 1. Also, the article does not support your claim that most climate scientists don't believe Hansen's paper. It does raise valid doubts, though. I would appreciate you address this controversy in higher detail at some point.
just say it,.....
Stop Burning Oil and Gas.
Simple as that.
we sold 13 million barrels yesterday, a new record
So,....No
actually 13.7 million, but hey,.. whats 700 000 barrels a day here and there.
It'll depopulate the highly populous countries. Burn more fuel 😂
The emperor penguin thing at 2:50, man that needs to be in the news.
Sir I think you should address Mr. Hansen's points seriously. "Extinction in the next couple of years" is a very misleading caricature and "most climate scientists don't believe his paper" is a very shallow rebuttal. You should explain why they don't.
03:29 Thank you for saying this. The heating is everywhere. I think the shipping issue is somewhat of a red herring.
Extremely informative, interesting, clear and concise. God work boy.
Suggestion:
Try using large fonts for slides being shown.
“I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”
- Sultan Al Jaber, President of COP 28, also CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
Mukhtar Babayev will be the president for COP 29; he is also a former executive of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijian Republic.
Seems more and more likely, scenario SSP5-8.5 of the IPCC assessment may come to fruition (or at least the higher end of the spectrum). I say enjoy what you can, while you still can; pity the generations to come.
Thank you, Simon, for these very important videos!
at 4min your comment on James Hansens latest paper, can you do a review of his paper and why its controversial? is it the CO2 sensitivity you find unconvincing, or is it the total impact of shipping aerosols that you find issue with. others seem to be much more conviced.
Not 1.4 above pre-industrial.
It's 1.4 above 1850-1900, which is 150 years into the industrial era. An era that saw massive and global deforestation releasing lots of carbon.
It's well above 1.5 above pre-industrial.
It passed 2 above 1850-1900 for a few days. So that barrier has been broken, with a couple of days 2.2 above pre-industrial.
You may not like some of Hansen's wording about the severity and imminence to a dramatic (historically) warming, but you did not properly represent the totality of his (and colleagues') published paper. His assertion about the impact of the decrease in aerosols is indeed what you mentioned about aerosols. I suspect that large swaths of the climatology community are a bit shell-shocked about the *culture war* in which you find yourselves. Encourage you to more directly address this culture war.
There is a direct relationship between the extent to which one is informed on issues pertaining to humanity's 'overshoot' of our planetary boundaries and the extent to which one is prone to pessimism about the future.
Unfortunately, climate change is only one of many aspects of this overshoot (others include soil degradation, collapse of insect numbers, collapse of fish stocks, severe pollution of land sea and air, poor management of fresh water, habitat loss, mass extinction of wild species, increasing pandemic vulnerability, worrying population projections, proliferation of PFAs and micro-plastics, decreasing mineral and fertiliser availability, the persistence of new bird flu strains and their devastating effect on the poultry industry etc, etc) and it is the combination of all of these impacts - together with our quite severe global economic and energy-related challenges, that have led the well informed to their somewhat bleak outlook. And that's before you even consider the tense geopolitical landscape, the seemingly unstoppable rise of the hard right, and the impact of rapidly developing use of AI in all aspects of our lives.
Even climate scientists can be prone to myopia on the big picture issues. They are used to viewing the world though a narrow lens and this can impede their ability to see the bigger picture. A climate scientist might, for example, suggest that we have decades before the worst climate impacts are witnessed, which may be true according to some models, but this belies the fact that the climate is only one of a myriad of issues that threaten our way of life. I find that systems experts and those from more generalised academic disciplines tend to be the ones who see things most clearly, as they seem adept at 'joining the dots' in the way that is necessary to truly understand the perilous state of our predicament.
The 'doomer' movement is growing with every failed COP, and now includes some very eminent scientists. Alternatively, the likes of Michal Mann and others who refuse to accept the severity of our predicament are now in a minority and their pleas are sounding increasingly plaintive against the backdrop of relentlessly bleak news and data.
I see no value in clinging to the hope that our (hitherto ineffective) governments will suddenly see sense, untether themselves from fossil fuel interests and act rapidly and purposefully on this issue. Let us face it...that is simply not going to happen. Rather, the methods that have been used so effectively to date (misinformation, the systematic undermining of science and scientists, the use of funds to 'buy' political influence etc) will be ramped up and will result in further political inertia until we finally enter a collapse phase.
1.5 degrees is well and truly dead and buried. Not yet so that the data shows it, but enough warming is baked in to our atmosphere to effectively exceed that guardrail within the next 3 - 5 years, whatever we do.
Staying within 2 degrees of warming is technically possible but would entail a rapid global mobilisation of effort and resources that simply doesn't seem feasible given today's fragmented and divided geopolitical landscape. Let's not forget that a huge expansion of oil drilling licensing is under way and the global population is still rising to the tune of 140 million births a year (that's another USA added to the global population every 2.3 years). Added to which, the political appetite for the depth of change needed to really deal with this issue simply isn't there, and if Trump gets in again, all bets are off.
The best (most sophisticated) models suggest we're probably headed towards the 2.3 - 2.8 degrees of warming territory, and that's based on some quite optimistic assumptions (eg IPCC's fixation with CCS despite little progress in rendering the technology scalable and affordable over the last 20 years). James Hansen et al would argue that the upper range could be as much as 4 degrees, and to be frank, I think the assumptions that went into Hansen's models were far more realistic than the IPCCs somewhat 'hopium-infused' modelling.
It doesn't really matter because even at the most optimistic end of this range, we're in very, very serious trouble. I simply don't agree with those who assume panic would lead to paralysis on the climate. Panic is an innate and important response in human beings which enables us to summon the adrenalin, energy and will to act on a fear. Too much panic isn't the problem in respect of the climate, too little panic is the problem.
As for 'doomers'. They are simply people who have read widely, understand, and recognise the severity of these complex and multifarious challenges, and refuse to countenance denial as a means of dealing with our predicament.
Pretending things are not as bad as they are is disempowering people from making the kind of sensible decisions that might give them a chance at surviving climate chaos by becoming more resilient. A person who is of the view that things are 'in hand' and governments still have time to respond will not act with due urgency by taking control of their own food, water and energy needs. It's time to face facts....Our governments are not going to solve this problem, no fix-all technology is on the horizon and things are going to get very bad, very quickly. Let's be grown up and start having this difficult, but necessary conversation.
@6:25 it's fascinating how the amount of crops and livestock that are lost to climate is articulated (in the original article and here repeated by simon in the same terms) is portrayed as a financial value rather that as - for example - a number of meals, the number of people who can be sustained by that food, by the raw physical quantity of that food.
While some may say that the dollar value is consistent -- it's not, look at natural gas prices - the dollar value as per the record will not mean the same when prices are inflated in 2024.
But the fact that so much of the climate system is judged by financial profit or loss, kind of highlights why we're in this catastrophe. It's not "3,000 people can't eat for a month due to crops being destroyed" it's "300 million USD of crops was lost". The emphasis is on the money rather than the utilitarian practicalities of the farming and food production.
We should have:
Survival first.
Money second.
Has there been a "de-bunking" of James Hansons Paper?
Berkley earth said 99% chance 2023 ends above 1.5c why does he say we will stay under in 2024 if it will be hotter than 2023?
One of your best videos! I really like your predictions. Been wanting to hear them for a long time.
Oh. So you like to hear fear mongering stories?
@@oldineamiller9007 No, I like science, truth and logic. I also want to hear my favorite climate scientists predictions.
@@Campaigner82
Here on this channel there is no scientific information availible, but sure enough a lot of fear mongering.
I remember it snowing many inches in November when I was younger but now it’s December and no snow, but tornados happened and in my area we hadn’t had one in a long time
2023 is sort of like 1997-98 maybe? Or perhaps 2012. I am speaking very generally. I hope we don't lose the Great Barrier Reef before the global temperature spike calms down a bit.
I also wish but that is very unlikely as things are going, however with new discoveries of corals and such, I suspect we won't lose corals in general so maybe in the future we will be able to rebuild it
You do realize the Great Barrier has had a thriving growth these last years, right? Half these useful idiots say is catastrophism onanism.
@@mudemmeonick "thriving growth these last years" - best citation please. The point is if the water gets too warm for a period of time, the coral bleaches no matter how healthy it is, it is a fact.
@@Solstice261IPCC SR15 warns 1.5°C of warming will lead to 70% - 90% global loss of warm water corals. 2°C will result in a 98% - 100% loss this century.
The IPCC also warns: "Explicit carbon prices remain a necessary condition of ambitious climate policies” - IPCC SR15
Carbon Fee and Dividend with CBAMs is a beneficial, powerful way to do it.
@@johngage5391 definitely lost in the wild but I hope we can keep some in captivity, science and all that
Fossil fuel execs have names and addresses
Impossible, you think they don't know the masses hate their guts?
@@vaga4239 you think they don't... have names and addresses?
2023 was the hottest year on record (so far)
I thought we'd already just gone over 1.5c december temps are off the chart as well. Surely that is the main main news? And that some days were over 2c above average?
Hey, hey, guys, I invented a new carbon-capture solution! I call this new invention Trees
Nice idea, but unfortunately more of them are going to be cut down or burnt in fires than are planted. Also the fossil fuel industry has already decided that you and I will have to pay them for CCS as they insist their incomes must keep rising even if we drastically reduce the use of their products.
Trees doesnt work on a grand scale, as it is more efficient just to reduce fossil fuel usage.
Trees are great, but I'm backing team phytoplankton.
That's the trouble with an economic system dependant on profit & growth. We need to produce more every year than we did the previous year. More room for us, less for nature.
@@zaarkeru3391Trees only work at a grand scale. That's the problem. Humanity is unwilling to reforest back to pre-colonial levels.
Global boiling has just been cancelled by global freezing. Just ask anyone living above 40 degrees north.
Such a quick dismissal of the paper by Hansen and his colleagues. Can you do a more in depth video on it?
Give us a little help preparing for 3° of warming please, I'm grasping at straws.
Vote for government that want chsnge for the better.
Other than that, not much we can do
@@zaarkeru3391I mean where is relatively "safe", how to find food security in this changing world.
@@vaga4239
No where really.
When a billion climate refugees comes knocking we will see societal struggles which make ww1 and ww2 look like a rough weekend.
And no amount of anti immigration policy will stop it.
Honestly, the best way to deal with it is somehow to get very rich.
Or maybe look into sustainable hydropondics.
Thats not a safe solution though.
@@vaga4239 Hahahhahahaha, "safe"
@@vaga4239North oceanic climates will generally be available for foraging, but the reality is the agriculture system as we know it is bound to collapse under itself
Thanks for the video
I feel like I haven’t gotten a summer for the past couple years because it’s been so hot and smoky out. I’m in Alberta Canada, and going outside sucked even just going to work was miserable.
because insane forestry practices resulted in massive fuel loads on forest floors and a low cycle on precipitation coalesced. Only one is due to humans.
The planet will be fine, humanity on the other hand probably not so.
And it isn’t not just James Hanson, Guy McPherson has been a doom sayer for years (almost certainly too much but hey)
Guy McPherson’s outlook on the state of the climate is about as helpful as business as usual. Doomerism is the last attempt for fossil fuel companies to make more money before they’re eventually shut down. Get everyone to stop caring since we’re all doomed and keep extracting till there’s nothing left.
Yep. Some people are attracted to doom, and nuance-free reasoning more generally, and the PR companies employed by the fossil fuel industry are aiming to make full use of their predilections.@@PlanetZeroVideos
And what about Creative Society studies 😮 ?
"The planet will be fine, humanity won't" is always a rediculous thing to say.
You really need to look at things in terms of earths "spheres", biogeochemical cycles and other earth cycles like ocean circulation. "The planet" doesn't mean shit, what do you mean? The geosphere?
Our effects are going to be (and already are) extremely damaging to the biosphere and we are seeing things like a weakening of the AMOC which will only assist in disrupting ocean circulation and upwelling of phytoplankton which are the basis of marine food webs, so therefore causing further marine extinction.
The geosphere will be fine, the biosphere will be fucked, the hydrosphere will be very altered, and the atmosphere will be very altered. We are also essentially changing the dynamics of the carbon cycle by activating positive feedback loops of marine carbon release because the warming of the waters releases carbon, decreases density so therefore expands mass causing rising water levels which will harm ecosystems.
The planet will not be fine, unless you define "the planet" in a rediculous reductionist way to merely mean the geosphere.
Funny thing about issues is
If it's solvable people don't work as hard because they become relaxed
If you say it's possible but only if we do all we can, then the job gets done.
But if you say it's to late you decide people in the camps if, nihilistic back traveling making things worse or the ultra endurer that never gives up despite how bleak things look because you need know how the future will look.
I'm flip back and forth between work hard because we can and work hard despite thinking the worst.
But not everyone is working hard for a solution, and Americans and oil companies are actively fighting climate solutions..
So there is an increasing suicide rate in rural America because of this denialism
Problems with the climate? That's okay....COP29 will fix everything, right? LOL. Thanks for this Simon. Cheers.
“I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”
- Sultan Al Jaber, President of COP 28, also CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
Seems more and more likely, scenario SSP5-8.5 of the IPCC assessment may come to fruition (or at least the higher end of the spectrum). I say enjoy what you can, while you still can; pity the generations to come.
As far as I know the CO2 level is still going up at the same rate of 2.2 to 2.4ppm every year all the way since the existance of the IPCC. So what exactly did the last 27 COPs achieve so far?
I mean… to say that this year is catastrophically, record-breakingly hot BUT, don’t worry, it’s just what climate science was predicting does *not* sound particularly reassuring. Also, saying this year’s COP was yet again a big nothing burger with no binding steps to emissions reduction BUT we are making some progress with renewables sounds really like “too little, too late”…
Happy Christmas, Simon!
Wishing You and Your Little Family all the very best for 2024.
I looked at Milwaukees temps and holy shit its literally 20f diff between now and the 60's
And in Sweden we have had snow earlier than most years...
Paul Beckwith put out a video yesterday talking about an article that has animations showing the record heat anomalies all across the globe and how the only 2 currently colder than normal places are Scandinavia and East Antarctica.
@@Zankras In Sweden we have had periods of very cold weather for many years, as well as heat periods. I remember years with two meters of snow and --30C, as well as the hottest summers ever, in the 1970s. I also remember the doomsday of "the coming ice age", "water will rise above the Maldives in ten years time", "ozone hole", "forrest death", "acid rains", etc etc. Everytime it is necessary to make it an impending armageddon, otherwise no one will listen. It is tiresome to see history repeat itself.
As far as animations go, it is easy to fool someone with statistics. Weather maps use the color RED much more now than a few year ago since the change the threshold for it...
2:53 merry christmas.
At the end of the nineteenth century most physicists thought that almost everything there was to know in physics was already known. Consensus of experts is not always an indicator of reality!
No, but it's one hell of an indicator of when something is true, and should be listened to when designing policies, unless that is, that you think the opinion of a couple companies that just want to earn all the money are more reliable
"At the end of the nineteenth century most physicists thought that almost everything there was to know in physics was already known"
Silly and pointless claim, not to mention wrong.
Yeah 2023 was quite unusual. For now it is 2nd wettest since 1949 also July, September and October have been if not hottest ever, they were in top 3 warmest.
Simon is one of the best UA-camrs out there. Thanks for this video. Keep making art. Cheers.
Wow, such a good insight, thanks for sharing!
As a farmer, I saw hints of climate change loooong time ago, and hearing climate deniers... I was responding, do you ever go outside? I can grow pumpkins now, before it was impossible :D
You're doing your part, thank you.
Ah mate the penguins... Ahhh.... I'm depressed to hear that...
Where i live 10 years ago winter was so cold the trees turned into pure ice, now it's literally middle of the winter and I'm genuinely tweaking from heat
How do trees turn into ice? Alchemy?
@@incognitotorpedo42 yes. I live in Norway so simple weather fenomena is capable of changing the structure of reality
The (greatest) resistance to really acknowledge man made climate change in my social circle is that "we alone can't change anything" with "why us".
Fear that is at the heart of ‘doomerism’ is not a bad, and perhaps if all parents (like yourself ) were doomers then we would see them protesting rather than everything will be fine…
10:47 "while decarbonisation of electricity generation is going well" - shows a graph with nuclear vs "renewables" (hydropower, biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, and marine production). Is that an honest mistake?
He probably just grabbed the graph from the study he used, where it showed the development of clean energies, and since nuclear is clean but is not treated as renewable, it just appeared, don't think he meant nothing by it
Thank you for these videos
Thanks for all the info
Many thanks to you, Simon, for your superb contributions to our knowledge and understanding of science. You rock, mate! 🎉😊
Was watching just stop oil videos yesterday and was taken aback by the vitriolic comments on every one. I am wondering about the source of those comments if they are real or fake. I expect a whole bunch of hate to be directed at me if I express my support of JSO. Sticks and stones.
It's not vitriolic to point out that JSO guarantees economic collapse and mass starvation.
@@klondike444 is this not vitriolic? "Glad i don't have to deal with those looser's. I would probably end up in jail with battery charges." Or how about this? "Thats so F*cked up, the Bus could have gotten hurt!"
We need solar geoengineering. Donate to MEER.
Thank you for the summary👍
Question: Does Hansen went to the "we're all gonna die soon" camp already? I had it in high regards
Brings to mind Hansen's mid-range predictions turned out to be spot on; he was only claimed to make "silly dire predictions" by political media. Easy to find, check it out. In one case he was asked, off the cuff, what would happen if CO2 were suddenly to double which is a ridiculous counterfactual. But somehow the substance of the question is always omitted from accounts of his answer.
@@rps1689 so, basically, same old story. Let's just include the most extreme take and then picture that "those fear monger scientist saying the world is going to end"
@@derelictor It's not the end of the world. And no one ever made that claim in main stream climate science.
@@rps1689Sorry, perhaps I didn't express myself clearly enough. But media outlets always take just one part of what climate scientists say, twisted it, make huge dramatic headlines and if somebody says something against it, they just have to put the blame on the source, even though that source didn't say what the headlines claim
@@derelictor Indeed they have. One only has to look to the 70s.
There were two papers, by Schneider, Kukla, and Rasool, that made headlines when the reporters misread them. They predicted the slow cooling of 1940-1980, which was caused by global dimming might continue. Their papers said that If that trend had continued, the ice sheets would be back, in 20 to 40 thousand years. But the reporters missed that part. The tabloids ran an imminent ice age scare and the newspapers picked it up from them. Then it went to The Late Show and there were references in sitcoms, and that silly show with Leonard Nimoy.
Great work as always
Thanks for this summary
That’s so sad about the penguins 😓
How are we not screwing ourselves?…🤦🏽
There has been so much rain this year our town flooded this has never happend in the 50 years my father has been alive
How do you measure the temperature of an entire ocean? And why are these recorded temperatures reliable?
Also I blame China.
Satelittes and argo floats. How they estimate the global average ocean heat is by constantly comparing the data from satellites, floats, and probes to verify that the values they produce make sense. This is done four times a year. How they compare heat in the ocean to heat in other parts of the planets climate system is by converting the temperatures to joules.
thank you
Thank you so much for you're videos❤ And thank you for being thankful and kind towards us and the world in general🫶🏼 Keep up the good work:)
Proud my ancestors aren't responsible for destroying the world.
I love how people keep blaming the El Niño. No. The El Niño is not causing it to rain in buffalo NY for Christmas and beyond. Notice they dropped the super part. That’s because it’s not been as strong as they thought it would be. And then to top it off, they are now blaming shipping changes? Come on.
10:00 wouldnt the current war of Russia in Ukraine contribute to the EUs decline of coal and gas usage to boil water? I mean im happy theres a reduction but does that also come from decreased demand with inflation too?
Shoutout to givewell!!! Theyre the best!!!
great vid man
The actual most fragile construct in the modern era is the global economy, as it is mostly 'confidence' based. Before the loss of most coastal regions to rising seas, before the collapse of agriculture, before the full chaos of climate migration, the global economy will collapse. This could happen pretty soon, maybe within a decade depending on the costs to the insurance and banking industries.