“What was it like fighting in the Stans War old timer?” “You wouldn’t understand, you weren’t there!” Simon this is just mind blowing, wow. I got so emotionally invested! Brilliant story telling with so many great educational and thought provoking touches. Loved the banking crisis reimagined as the energy company collapse. Any angry Indians can divert their anger at me as I might’ve influenced some negative aspects of the imagining of India’s future, don’t blame Simon! You need to release merch now. “REBEL OF THE 44 UPRISING” “Freedom for the Nile 6!” “REMEMBER THE ICE✊🏽” Edit: I also love the optimistic realism. There is hope…and I like how you gave ways forward that could inspire people watching. I hope many do.
Thankfully I really feel this time is different. Lots of bjg milestones have been hit and there’s lots of companies investing heavily into it. Better computers and AI have been helping them, and while I don’t understand the science (who does lol) it sounds like they’ve gotten much further. Doubt it’s anywhere close but I could really see them saying “fusion is 30 years away” for real right about now.
It was the worst part, i was "oh common" every time, and less polite by the end. I understand we don't want to hope for a perfect solution that we can just wait for, but still, "a few decades away" in 2080 is not a scenario i want to believe in.
@@andynz7 I like fusion also, a fascinating topic, 2 billion years of fuel in the ocean and all that. The problem if we did crack it all we do is give perpetual growth capitalism all the energy it needs to consume what remains of the ecology of this world which given we have lost 70% of the animal species and 50% of the ocean phytoplankton that overall produces 80% of our oxygen supply in just the last 70yrs of my still living mother, sufficed to say what remains ain't much. The problem is not how we power perpetual growth capitalism, nor how we move around within perpetual growth capitalism. The problem is perpetual growth capitalism. In complete bloody defiance of the physics of a finite world.
“Future fan fiction” like this is important. It gives us a way to see what CAN be if we fight, not just what will happen to us if we don’t. Thank you, Simon.
1:06:21 Great work Simon et al. From what I’ve heard from others it’s the complexity and the sheer moral weight and magnitude that surely causes people to reject the reality before us all. Keep up the good fight ❤
This is still a far more doomer scenario than what could be. Water conflcts still going on in 2100? Wouldn´t all countries have restructured their water supply by then? Efficient water usage is already possible in agriculture and with desalination today
@@succerberg84 extremes are unlikely, i can see this happening, someone just needs to forward this video to the Cop - 2023. And to everyone in Florida, Egypt, Ethiopia, and most other "involved in conflict of their making" countries and corporations. Fuel is finite, it's going to run out at some point, the more it's used the quicker it will run out, but also the quicker we extinct most species on earth, of which one is humans. Don't subsidise fuel and the free market will take care of it even without the necessary carbon tax, just fine them on future human damage so that the free market could do it's job.
Wow. This is something different. After all these years it's still absolutely mindblowing that something of this quality and depth is still available on UA-cam. Well done Simon!
I was born in 1998. This is really crazy to think I may actually LIVE through all of this, seeing if mankind will ever overcome the greatest challenge of its history. Amazing video, one of the best on this website.
Right? I might actually die during its conclusion, either we fail or succeed, it would surely be an interesting life, hard and stressful but exciting at the same time.
i genuinely forgot how important it is to imagine the positive things you actually want for the future and this was a welcome reminder to start doing so again. thanks for that.
felt strange watching this. as I'm currently studying mechanical engineering hopefully, I'll be helping make the high-speed rail dream a reality. it's the main reason i chose this course in the first place. thank you for making these things it helps give me hope.
Simon you absolutely outdid yourself on this video, this is such a fresh and good way to lay out issues we'll face while still showing a hopeful way forward. I cant say anything but great job!
I really hope this video blows up - this is the most thorough, realistic, and comprehensive “alternate history/future” i’ve ever seen, down to all the details of the complicated web of forces between climate, sociology, geopolitics, international politics - like the mention of a war breaking out in Central Asia where i’ve been due to water supply breaking down in the Fergana valley because of the diversion of water to the Aral sea melting the glaciers in the Altai and Tian Shen mountains is something so specific yet almost certain to happen though it’s such a small detail mixed in with every other deeply thought out points in this video. Absolutely amazing job, and I love the inspiration from BobbyBroccoli
It's junk, you have clearly not followed the plot to where we're at, but you think this version of climate science is the best? He doesn't even deal with where we're at in 2024, he skips straight out to 2035. This is lunacy....frankly.
This is a brilliant kind of science fiction, and one that I don't think I've ever really seen before. It reminds me a bit of the way some writers write sci-fi with the goal of teaching people about real science, and it's not uncommon to see stories imagining the future effects of specific problems of today, but it seems completely unique to write a thoroughly researched documentary that seamlessly includes a fictional perspective. There were so many real details that made me recognize this as the world I live in. And it's so fun to imagine this realistic hopepunk future where, despite the world's flaws that we will always acknowledge, climate activism is victorious, people are held accountable, public transport expands, Africa avoids the worst of neocolonialism, tuberculosis is cured, Florida is destroyed, nuclear fusion remains just around the corner, and the beautiful news about the last new coral reef brings home all of the hope that's been built up.
As someone who is writing a science fiction novel set in 2100, this will prove to be a valuable and fascinating resource! Plus, it's neat and needed on its own!
This is VERY optimistic! One nitpick I do have about this is that they would not have known at the time that we had Hit peak emissions of carbon and methane
you can make projections and also you can notice that they reduced this year, where they used to always increase before. So they would celebrate right after the peak.
@@ttynorttyl The point is they wouldn't know in the year itself that they'd hit peak, since you only know where the peak is _after_ it starts going back down
@@ButzPunk yea but the guy is narrating it from the POV of knowing when the emissions drop. He's narrating from the future, he's not present tensing it.
It's so hard to imagine us all coming together to face this challenge. You've given me hope that it's possible. And we don't have to wait 20 years. That's the most brilliant bit.
Thank you Simon this was a really good video and while this video was framed as a retrospective from 2100, it felt to me a reminder that our future is not a pre-written, worst case scenario but a series of actions taken in the present tense over the next multiple decades. I have been watching your videos for over six years now and you have been an inspiration to me. Partly because of you, I have started a PhD this year investigating Climate Tipping Points. Hopefully we'll all be able to make a positive difference by the end.
Fairly optimistic. It sometimes feels the worst you mentioned is right at our doorstep. It is great work. Cannot imagine the number of hours went into deciding what's what when.
This was amazing to watch! Really appreciate all the effort you put into this! And also, the continuous jokes about nuclear fusion being just around the corner, in just a few more decades!
Even something funny like nuclear fusion being 99% of the way there is a smart addition to this story that makes it feel real. That, and Greta Thunberg winning Eurovision. That's the most believable detail of the whole video.
I love this video style. It just so happens that I discovered BobbyBroccoli's work earlier today and thought to myself: hey, this reminds me of John Bois' video essays. Only to open this video and think to myself: hey, this reminds me of BobbyBroccoli's video essays.
It's not a real documentary as it documents a fake, made up future based on huge dollops of climate control addiction and climate change alarmism. Climate Control nutjobs represent as much of threat to the human race as Nuke Warhead Junkies, Mass-Medication Forcers and Transhumanist Revolutionaries.... They'd rather kill us all than back down from their wrong un' ideologies
Wow. I watched the vid on nebula, and i just wanted to comment that i clicked on this vid and saw that it was 1h long, but could not stop watching. That was an amazing essay. Im so inspired for my plans to help fight the crisis. Trully thank you for making me feel inspired and more confident for the future❤
I took a light nap and played this on my phone next to me, so my dream's visuals were based on the events being narrated here, and boy, was it an experience 😭😭
@@vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 it was mostly a montage of certain scenes (people protesting, corals disappearing etc) with a bright orange filter on them-- the events depicted were either sped up or presented as still images :0c
I'm absolutely speechless. It feels like I held my breath for over 1 hour. And to know you depicted only a 1.8° increase makes me feel even more despair
This video has Greatly Realigned my Life's Purpose and reinstated the Reason why I took Atmospheric sciences as my College Major. To see a detailed Future Fiction Video, well made like this has made me to think what I Should do as a individual Citizen of the Country, India, that's gonna be a major player in this Crisis and What extent I have to do my work to Educate and Organize my Community and My government on the Ongoing Climate Crisis. I cried a lot during this whole Length of the video, just because of the pressing fear of looming Catastrophe . But as a Communist who actually believes that an Utopian world is possible, I am holding on to my illogical hope I have on the People of this Planet, that we'll do better and give a world where our Grandchildren are proud and Happy for. Thanks for this video again and hope that you make more videos like this❤ (below is the Commentary I was doing along the video with the timestamps ) 6:19 it's sad to say that we have to be dependent on The worst natural disaster to hit a country and Let it lose lives just to divert their attention to the Crisis in hand😢 7:54 again, Sad to see Radicalism as an method to divert attention, but a needed one 😢 10:38 No way my people are gonna get Slaughtered in my own land... I hope that never happens even in my worst dreams. Also, there is an Oposition Growing. So Don't lose hope on India too 24:05 okay, that was a twist I wasn't expecting 28:59 again, I hope my people won't do that... 38:07 thought I would hear a good news, but😢. Yeah, the "Eco-terrorism" will be on Peak 38:35 finally a Good Fucking News 41:35 Crying hard here😭 46:57 yeah, the Party Spoilers at the big boys table. Who would have predicted this! /s 48:39 I am surprised why the sea rise issue wasn't talked much early. The entire half of Bangladesh would be Gone underwater at this point 50:25 yes finally, The Majority Asians did it 55:27 RIP Bozo 58:19 I thought of this the very sec I heard "China expanding because it needs lithium and Cobalt from Africa", my first reaction was "Shit, here comes the Worker exploitation" 59:43 the only reason I support Veganism 1:00:02 ohhh, Don't worry, that's happening sooner than you think... 1:05:39 "Deep with Details". Bruh... If you think that this is little Detail, then idk what is sufficient detailing
Bro at 21:00 I just about burst into tears... specifically because even achieving that milestone would be... incredible, and yet that is something that seems very difficult to achieve right now, and to be frank unreasonably hopeful. And then knowing that even that wouldn't enough... that irl, my parents will probably be dead before this day comes, that I will probably be past my mid-life, soon to retire, and that my kids will likely live in a world completely unrecognizable. THis video is already insanely hopeful, IMO, and frankly it hurts. Actually I lied, I finished the video and more or less I was crying throughout.
Wow! That was actually pretty inspiring to me, as fate would have it I'm interviewing tomorrow morning for the first job in what I hope will be a new career in conservation and this gave me a lot of ideas!
Thank you so much for making this, Simon. Maybe one day you could make a slightly pessimistic scenario video. You refer to this as a slightly optimistic scenario. In your judgement, what level of warming do you think is most likely by 2100?
@@jackhartcup how is it greenwashing? it's largely pragmatic and humanity still overshoots the 1.5 target whilst barely missing 2 degrees. I don't think the world depicted in this video is meant to be enticing nor one id ever want to live in.
I've held off watching this video because of laziness and its length for way too long, but have finally gotten to it and... wew. This video has really touched me very deeply. Thank you for making this.
Commenting for the algorithm, this was incredible simon and had me on the verge of tears in many places, i’ve shared with many people already. thank you so much
@28:55 FYI India already has a border fence/wall with Bangladesh precisely to stop weather related immigration. This is very probably the longest manmade barrier in the world in 2023. By August 2021, 3,141 kilometres (1,952 mi) of fencing was completed out of a total of just over 4,000km border. So to say that this fence and Indias associated lack of acceptance of immigrants wont be in place until the 2040s is.... extremely unlikely. Bangladesh is currently (today; 2023) suffering persistent issues due directly to climate change.
This was one of the best videos I have watched in a while. Incredibly captivating for a video over an hour, especially having watched your video on the earlier decade before. Keep up the good work!
It is optimistic, but the idea that it won't happen is still quite scary, given that this is still a pretty grim outcome all things considered and we as a species are sadly not doing anything to change in this direction. We are just speeding faster and faster towards doom with absolutely no sign of stopping
It’s easy to be pessimistic about the future but we have to hold onto hope to a certain extent. We have to keep trying and fighting regardless because giving up doesn’t really serve a purpose. And if you love the natural world like i do, you should remember that nature never gives up. The one word that sums up nature more than any other, would be ‘Perseverance’.
Thank you so much Simon ! It’s so refreshing to get a better view of how things could be if we keep on the fight, in a realistic way. It might be grim and far from the ideal we’d like to see, but still full of hope. Thousands of thanks for the amazing work you and your team produce ❤
If you like this, I’d suggest two different novels about how things can go… “Ministry for the Future”, by Kim Stanley Robinson (dark but ultimately optimistic); and “The Deluge”, by Stephen Markley (dark, pessimistic). I recommend Ministry for the Future first, partly because it’s more optimistic, and partly because it’s a much easier read. The Deluge is approximately the size and complexity of War and Peace (I’ve read both).
These are fascinating projections. I would very much like to revisit this in 75 years to see which predictions were close and what may have been way off, but I doubt I’ll be around that long without major breakthroughs in longevity. How about a retrospective in 25 years?
I know people are already saying this but the prediction that we would get 2 category 5 hurricanes off the coast of Florida in 2028 within 3 weeks of each other, was astonishing considering that now in 2024 we got hurricane Helene a category 4 and hurricane Milton a category 5, 2 weeks apart in the gulf of Mexico near Florida. Bro was off by 4 years late.
This is such a novel and incredible project. By far my favorite video you have made that really helps with grasping the consequences of climate change, which is such a tricky but neccecary issue. Amazing job to you and all those who worked on this project.
I never believe in alt-history scenarios because I feel that they're usually unrealistic, but this one hit deep and felt unfairly realistic. Hopefully we reach a good conclusion by 2100...
I'm still only 3/4 the way through, but I have to say this video is definitely the best one you've ever created. It gave me chills multiple times, had me absolutely fascinated throughout, at times made me hopeless, at times invigorated. It's a combination of worldbuilding, sci-fi, and actual science that's so realistic it hurts. This was just. Abolutely amazing. Bravo.
Nice work Simon 😊. Was waiting for “Solar Geoengineering” as a multitude of measures that enhance reflectivity. And a compression of history. Also 🎉closer to The Ministry of the Future that has a powerful economic resolution called Carbon Quantitative Easing. Really hope resource wars can be avoided by increased global cooperation.
I was born in 2011. I really hope this trajectory is accurate, I'm very scared for how the world will look when I'm older... I don't want to live in a world where the current trends continue. Thank you for making this video.
its crazy to me that people a near decade younger than me are looking at these kinds of things with the same fear I have had as long as I remember. I hope to see you on the streets of a climate riot in the next decade I suppose.
41:42 Not on topic i know but i love the name dropping of random huge events in these sort of videos. Reminds me of the brief mention of "the clone wars" in A New Hope lol
Had me near tears at certain parts and goosebumps all the way through...I want us as a people to make it so wholeheartedly and your storytelling from the point of a fellow atmospheric science geek really catches me! If you are aspiring to also continue your writing in that direction, you for sure have a reader in me again
This is a really cool bit of science-fiction and I think the documentary format is honestly a great way to present this kinda thing. I also like the focus on the global south, that seems extremely fitting.
this version of the future is a lot more promising than i thought it would be or personally realistically think it WILL be, but hey I'm not a pessimist i just think more governments will make more big mistakes and ofc companies will just focus on short term profits..
I love the little details! Also, extremely impressive for only the third video in this style. I'm going to have to rewatch the other two episodes soon to refresh my memory.
I bet the biggest impact of CCS will be accidentally discovering ways for making really large and efficient filters for particulate matter that can be used in hospitals to clean the air of viruses and other things.
Holy hell, As a current sufferer form a great deal of climate anxiety in general this means so much. To see that there is a realiistic future that could be worth seeing, even while remembering that we humans are flawed and imperfect creatures and will both make bad choices in desperation but also as a group are capable of great things, and bend towards the right things with enough focus. Not to be Maudlin but this is legit one of the first things in a while that really helps me see that there might still be a version of the future worth seeing.
What a ride this video was! I can't be the only one who cried (multiple times!) during it. And laughed too. Generally, it's amazing how emotional this felt. I never really lost hope on the subject, but even I felt the rise of the hopium levels in my bloodstream by the end of it. And I think lots of people need that now. I'm really happy this video exists Amazing work, Simon!
This video is an amazing source of hope, the quality here is incredible. Have you considered, just for fun, to do a video on the best possible scenario starting when the Global Warming: The Decade We Lost Earth video starts if everything went perfectly?
I don't know what to make of this video. I like to think our outcome will inevitably be the reduction of emissions, but with the clusterfuck going on out there in the real world, it's really _really_ hard to hope.
One oversight in this video, I think, is your repeated use of the "sustainable aviation fuel" to refer to biofuels, while claiming that the world food system held on. The use of shrinking areas of arable land to grow crops for fuel production would compete with the use of that land to grow food. Many years ago, I read an analysis in the French newspaper L'Humanité, stating that to meet France's transport needs from biofuels would require the entire arable area of France. Granted, this was not only fuel for air travel, but inevitably the diversion of land from food production to fuel production would push prices up, and push some of the world's population to (or over) the brink of starvation. There has been some talk recently of producing biofuels from waste cooking oils, but there also seems to be significant doubt that enough waste oils could be collected to substitute more than a small fraction of current aviation fuel demand. As I see it, either mass air transport needs to end, or an entirely new approach is needed, such as the use of hydrogen fuel cells to power electric planes.
I'm of the opinion from all I've seen that biofuels are about as reliable as carbon capture. And until we have mass producable graphene material hydrogen fuel cells are deeply wasteful
@@sookendestroy1 My point isn't about the efficiency of biofuels, but that we're unlikely to be able to produce them in sufficient quantity without catastrophic effects on food supply. How many people would it be "efficient"to starve in order to maintain mass air travel?
That deserves some thought. And we need more data. Some figures estimate that we could reduce agricultural land use by 2/3 (so only 1/3 of what we use now) if we switched diet. But then we need to account for the productivity of organic farming against conventional one, since it also seems we need to go full organic. Then calculate how much land would we need to give up to nature to recover ecosystems. Then see how much biofuel we could fit in the remaining gap.
Tbf this was in combination with a massive expansion of high speed rail, which is likely going to almost kill the regional aviation market, which currently accounts for the majority of air travel. In a place like Europe it would be fairly simple to move the majority of the journeys currently done by air over to high speed rail through relatively minor expansion of the current network but most importantly the interconnection of national networks, which is alreadly happening. We already have examples like France where short haul flights have been banned. In essence the aviation market he's envisioning is one that is much smaller than the current one. Also it is likely that biomass demand in the future won't be met by agriculture but by aquaculture in the form of sea weed and kelp farming, which also seems like a vital component in restoring ocean environments by filtering out runoff. Again in Europe there is ample opportunity for establishing kelp farms, and the high ammount of runoff seen in Europe also seemingly makes it a necessity, you can probably also do this elsewhere but I don't know a lot about the conditions outside the Baltic.
This was an amazing visualization and everything youtube/nebula should be/should have been in Web 2.0. I know you credited BobbyBroccoli in the intro, but even he took this style from Jon Bois, and the informational aspect seems to come from the likes of Tom Scott in his earlier days (as well as others who I cannot remember to name here). I know that BritMonkey also did something similar to this (AI’s “past” development from a future perspective) recently and that certainly shows here. I’d love more of this from not only you, but other UA-camrs as well-the shorts, “did you know?”, and infographic formats are getting old and we’re always destined to fail, and the academic, talking TO people format we often see (and that you often do on your channel) isn’t exactly the most efficient way of getting true, full information to audiences.
This video should have gone viral. Crazy how few views it got. Even if you do have to stop making videos like this atleast we have this and other ones like it
“What was it like fighting in the Stans War old timer?” “You wouldn’t understand, you weren’t there!” Simon this is just mind blowing, wow. I got so emotionally invested! Brilliant story telling with so many great educational and thought provoking touches. Loved the banking crisis reimagined as the energy company collapse. Any angry Indians can divert their anger at me as I might’ve influenced some negative aspects of the imagining of India’s future, don’t blame Simon! You need to release merch now. “REBEL OF THE 44 UPRISING” “Freedom for the Nile 6!” “REMEMBER THE ICE✊🏽”
Edit: I also love the optimistic realism. There is hope…and I like how you gave ways forward that could inspire people watching. I hope many do.
The things about India were a nice touch. The bit about transitioning to one-party rule was the moment that I was like, yeah, this _feels_ real.
99th like
"What was it like tackling the climate and ecological crises?"
" You'll find out when we lose more species and opportunities."
i was wondering how the predictions about india felt so realistic, now lets hope that it's not (insert apollo prophecy meme)
You’d think as resources begin to decline, people would try and share what little they have, But nah.
The running joke of Fusion power always being "just a few years away" was the best part of this.
I think the funniest joke is the idea that there will be a point where the oil execs pushing us to the brink will face anything approaching justice.
As a fusion-optimist I still loved this joke too :D
Thankfully I really feel this time is different. Lots of bjg milestones have been hit and there’s lots of companies investing heavily into it. Better computers and AI have been helping them, and while I don’t understand the science (who does lol) it sounds like they’ve gotten much further. Doubt it’s anywhere close but I could really see them saying “fusion is 30 years away” for real right about now.
It was the worst part, i was "oh common" every time, and less polite by the end. I understand we don't want to hope for a perfect solution that we can just wait for, but still, "a few decades away" in 2080 is not a scenario i want to believe in.
@@andynz7 I like fusion also, a fascinating topic, 2 billion years of fuel in the ocean and all that. The problem if we did crack it all we do is give perpetual growth capitalism all the energy it needs to consume what remains of the ecology of this world which given we have lost 70% of the animal species and 50% of the ocean phytoplankton that overall produces 80% of our oxygen supply in just the last 70yrs of my still living mother, sufficed to say what remains ain't much.
The problem is not how we power perpetual growth capitalism, nor how we move around within perpetual growth capitalism.
The problem is perpetual growth capitalism. In complete bloody defiance of the physics of a finite world.
“Future fan fiction” like this is important. It gives us a way to see what CAN be if we fight, not just what will happen to us if we don’t. Thank you, Simon.
1:06:21 Great work Simon et al. From what I’ve heard from others it’s the complexity and the sheer moral weight and magnitude that surely causes people to reject the reality before us all. Keep up the good fight ❤
This is still a far more doomer scenario than what could be. Water conflcts still going on in 2100? Wouldn´t all countries have restructured their water supply by then? Efficient water usage is already possible in agriculture and with desalination today
@@succerberg84 extremes are unlikely, i can see this happening, someone just needs to forward this video to the Cop - 2023. And to everyone in Florida, Egypt, Ethiopia, and most other "involved in conflict of their making" countries and corporations. Fuel is finite, it's going to run out at some point, the more it's used the quicker it will run out, but also the quicker we extinct most species on earth, of which one is humans. Don't subsidise fuel and the free market will take care of it even without the necessary carbon tax, just fine them on future human damage so that the free market could do it's job.
@@succerberg84 It "could" all be better, but life experience tells us that the best scenarios don't always play out.
new fan theory about the future
Wow. This is something different. After all these years it's still absolutely mindblowing that something of this quality and depth is still available on UA-cam. Well done Simon!
Where have you been? There's a lot of stuff out there, look up the club of Rome, Paul Beckwith, any climate scientist for that matter.
2 comments none visible?
😂
This jacka** actually had a baby!
I was born in 1998. This is really crazy to think I may actually LIVE through all of this, seeing if mankind will ever overcome the greatest challenge of its history. Amazing video, one of the best on this website.
You won't live through this😥
Not even Bear Grillis will survive. But it was fun!
Thanks for all the fish🤗
WE TOSSIN PPL LIKE YOU @@RjbigIamMe
Same deal. This both excites and terrifies me. It underscores just how important it is to tackle it right now.
Right? I might actually die during its conclusion, either we fail or succeed, it would surely be an interesting life, hard and stressful but exciting at the same time.
Yeah. We'll ride this or die trying, it seems.
Maybe you can make a followup in 77 years. To see how accurate your guesses were
And eat a hat if it was not 1% accurate
Sigh, too quick. 77 years is the fucking WEATHER.
i genuinely forgot how important it is to imagine the positive things you actually want for the future and this was a welcome reminder to start doing so again.
thanks for that.
felt strange watching this. as I'm currently studying mechanical engineering
hopefully, I'll be helping make the high-speed rail dream a reality.
it's the main reason i chose this course in the first place.
thank you for making these things it helps give me hope.
I can relate. It was also weird watching as an electrical engineering student.
The newly released plans to expand the Amtrak lines seem promising
Simon you absolutely outdid yourself on this video, this is such a fresh and good way to lay out issues we'll face while still showing a hopeful way forward. I cant say anything but great job!
I really hope this video blows up - this is the most thorough, realistic, and comprehensive “alternate history/future” i’ve ever seen, down to all the details of the complicated web of forces between climate, sociology, geopolitics, international politics - like the mention of a war breaking out in Central Asia where i’ve been due to water supply breaking down in the Fergana valley because of the diversion of water to the Aral sea melting the glaciers in the Altai and Tian Shen mountains is something so specific yet almost certain to happen though it’s such a small detail mixed in with every other deeply thought out points in this video. Absolutely amazing job, and I love the inspiration from BobbyBroccoli
Seriously? Did you notice that everything he describes in 2040 is what we experience today? This is ridiculous.
I particularly respect the events mentioned in passing about things like ITER and instability in the Sahel, which are really nice, realistic details.
Realistic? 🤣
I understand your desire for such wishful thinking.
It's junk, you have clearly not followed the plot to where we're at, but you think this version of climate science is the best? He doesn't even deal with where we're at in 2024, he skips straight out to 2035. This is lunacy....frankly.
Ha it forgot the alien invasion of 2042 after that they told us a secret. Have you tried putting it off and on again.
This is a brilliant kind of science fiction, and one that I don't think I've ever really seen before. It reminds me a bit of the way some writers write sci-fi with the goal of teaching people about real science, and it's not uncommon to see stories imagining the future effects of specific problems of today, but it seems completely unique to write a thoroughly researched documentary that seamlessly includes a fictional perspective. There were so many real details that made me recognize this as the world I live in. And it's so fun to imagine this realistic hopepunk future where, despite the world's flaws that we will always acknowledge, climate activism is victorious, people are held accountable, public transport expands, Africa avoids the worst of neocolonialism, tuberculosis is cured, Florida is destroyed, nuclear fusion remains just around the corner, and the beautiful news about the last new coral reef brings home all of the hope that's been built up.
OH YOU MEAN HOW HE SPOKE I FRONT CONGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
DUDE AINT EVER SAID THAT GET OFF THAT SHIT
This is possibly the greatest piece of hard sci-fi I've ever experienced. I can only hope it gets meaningfully noticed.
If you haven't heard of it: The Ministry For The Future by Kim Stanley Robinson is basically this but a novel, and it's very good!
As someone who is writing a science fiction novel set in 2100, this will prove to be a valuable and fascinating resource! Plus, it's neat and needed on its own!
This is VERY optimistic! One nitpick I do have about this is that they would not have known at the time that we had Hit peak emissions of carbon and methane
Thank you! Glad I'm not the only one who noticed this
you can make projections and also you can notice that they reduced this year, where they used to always increase before. So they would celebrate right after the peak.
But he's narrating it from the perspective of the future. Or am I missing something?
@@ttynorttyl The point is they wouldn't know in the year itself that they'd hit peak, since you only know where the peak is _after_ it starts going back down
@@ButzPunk yea but the guy is narrating it from the POV of knowing when the emissions drop. He's narrating from the future, he's not present tensing it.
It's so hard to imagine us all coming together to face this challenge. You've given me hope that it's possible. And we don't have to wait 20 years. That's the most brilliant bit.
Reality check: It's NOT possible. And it will not happen. Also it wouldn't work if we could.
I better stay in academia because I am just not willing to learn how to animate videos this well😂
Amazing series! I love how fusion is always a couple of decades away! I think you dad would have been proud that this was dedicated to him.
Thank you Simon this was a really good video and while this video was framed as a retrospective from 2100, it felt to me a reminder that our future is not a pre-written, worst case scenario but a series of actions taken in the present tense over the next multiple decades. I have been watching your videos for over six years now and you have been an inspiration to me. Partly because of you, I have started a PhD this year investigating Climate Tipping Points. Hopefully we'll all be able to make a positive difference by the end.
Fairly optimistic. It sometimes feels the worst you mentioned is right at our doorstep. It is great work. Cannot imagine the number of hours went into deciding what's what when.
It is.
This was amazing to watch! Really appreciate all the effort you put into this! And also, the continuous jokes about nuclear fusion being just around the corner, in just a few more decades!
It's a funny joke and also a reminder that there's not a silver bullet right around the corner
first gag made me chuckle and the last one just killed me. perfectly apt.
Honestly i could imagine nuclear fusion hitting net positive...
Just everyone to realise it being economically unviable
Climate change is economically unviable. Hence reaching net positive fusion is viable.
Even something funny like nuclear fusion being 99% of the way there is a smart addition to this story that makes it feel real. That, and Greta Thunberg winning Eurovision. That's the most believable detail of the whole video.
I love this video style. It just so happens that I discovered BobbyBroccoli's work earlier today and thought to myself: hey, this reminds me of John Bois' video essays. Only to open this video and think to myself: hey, this reminds me of BobbyBroccoli's video essays.
Well, that 2026 hurricane season came 2 years early
2028*
I'm so excited to watch this, I've always wanted a long form documentary in the style of your videos.
It's not a real documentary as it documents a fake, made up future based on huge dollops of climate control addiction and climate change alarmism. Climate Control nutjobs represent as much of threat to the human race as Nuke Warhead Junkies, Mass-Medication Forcers and Transhumanist Revolutionaries.... They'd rather kill us all than back down from their wrong un' ideologies
Wow. I watched the vid on nebula, and i just wanted to comment that i clicked on this vid and saw that it was 1h long, but could not stop watching. That was an amazing essay.
Im so inspired for my plans to help fight the crisis.
Trully thank you for making me feel inspired and more confident for the future❤
These kind of stories are what we need for stimulating public discussion. Imagery of solutions and problems are a great start for discussion.
I took a light nap and played this on my phone next to me, so my dream's visuals were based on the events being narrated here, and boy, was it an experience 😭😭
I would love to know the details of that.
@@vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 it was mostly a montage of certain scenes (people protesting, corals disappearing etc) with a bright orange filter on them-- the events depicted were either sped up or presented as still images :0c
I'm absolutely speechless.
It feels like I held my breath for over 1 hour.
And to know you depicted only a 1.8° increase makes me feel even more despair
This was so incredibly well produced, I'd love to see more long term content from you in the future!
This video has Greatly Realigned my Life's Purpose and reinstated the Reason why I took Atmospheric sciences as my College Major. To see a detailed Future Fiction Video, well made like this has made me to think what I Should do as a individual Citizen of the Country, India, that's gonna be a major player in this Crisis and What extent I have to do my work to Educate and Organize my Community and My government on the Ongoing Climate Crisis. I cried a lot during this whole Length of the video, just because of the pressing fear of looming Catastrophe . But as a Communist who actually believes that an Utopian world is possible, I am holding on to my illogical hope I have on the People of this Planet, that we'll do better and give a world where our Grandchildren are proud and Happy for. Thanks for this video again and hope that you make more videos like this❤
(below is the Commentary I was doing along the video with the timestamps )
6:19 it's sad to say that we have to be dependent on The worst natural disaster to hit a country and Let it lose lives just to divert their attention to the Crisis in hand😢
7:54 again, Sad to see Radicalism as an method to divert attention, but a needed one 😢
10:38 No way my people are gonna get Slaughtered in my own land... I hope that never happens even in my worst dreams. Also, there is an Oposition Growing. So Don't lose hope on India too
24:05 okay, that was a twist I wasn't expecting
28:59 again, I hope my people won't do that...
38:07 thought I would hear a good news, but😢. Yeah, the "Eco-terrorism" will be on Peak
38:35 finally a Good Fucking News
41:35 Crying hard here😭
46:57 yeah, the Party Spoilers at the big boys table. Who would have predicted this! /s
48:39 I am surprised why the sea rise issue wasn't talked much early. The entire half of Bangladesh would be Gone underwater at this point
50:25 yes finally, The Majority Asians did it
55:27 RIP Bozo
58:19 I thought of this the very sec I heard "China expanding because it needs lithium and Cobalt from Africa", my first reaction was "Shit, here comes the Worker exploitation"
59:43 the only reason I support Veganism
1:00:02 ohhh, Don't worry, that's happening sooner than you think...
1:05:39 "Deep with Details". Bruh... If you think that this is little Detail, then idk what is sufficient detailing
Bro at 21:00 I just about burst into tears... specifically because even achieving that milestone would be... incredible, and yet that is something that seems very difficult to achieve right now, and to be frank unreasonably hopeful. And then knowing that even that wouldn't enough... that irl, my parents will probably be dead before this day comes, that I will probably be past my mid-life, soon to retire, and that my kids will likely live in a world completely unrecognizable. THis video is already insanely hopeful, IMO, and frankly it hurts.
Actually I lied, I finished the video and more or less I was crying throughout.
5:56 - October 8 2024, it’s been less than 2 weeks since Hurricane Helene happened and now Hurricane Milton is looking to be catastrophic for Florida.
Wow, just wow. It’s not often that I watch a video essay that has me in tears with the emotion of it all - but this did it.
Wow! That was actually pretty inspiring to me, as fate would have it I'm interviewing tomorrow morning for the first job in what I hope will be a new career in conservation and this gave me a lot of ideas!
I hope your interview went well!
Thank you so much for making this, Simon. Maybe one day you could make a slightly pessimistic scenario video. You refer to this as a slightly optimistic scenario. In your judgement, what level of warming do you think is most likely by 2100?
This is beyond optimistic. Total greenwashing hopium.
I don't think we need a pessimistic one, we get those in everyday life
@@jackhartcup what about this is suppose to be greenwashing?
Yes it is definitely optimistic, but all within the realm of possibilities
the pessimistic scenario is what is happening irl lmao
@@jackhartcup how is it greenwashing? it's largely pragmatic and humanity still overshoots the 1.5 target whilst barely missing 2 degrees. I don't think the world depicted in this video is meant to be enticing nor one id ever want to live in.
Love the Bobby broccoli presentation style. It's like the final form of information description. Props on first hypothetical Bobby broccoli video
I've held off watching this video because of laziness and its length for way too long, but have finally gotten to it and... wew. This video has really touched me very deeply. Thank you for making this.
Commenting for the algorithm, this was incredible simon and had me on the verge of tears in many places, i’ve shared with many people already. thank you so much
The graphic of the tipping points and their probabilities is one of the best images I've ever seen showing the risks we face
Great video to give hope and still provide the impetus for action from everyone.
This video should have wayyyy more views
came here from tiktok and i can already tell I'll enjoy this one. Thank you for putting in so much effort!
@28:55 FYI India already has a border fence/wall with Bangladesh precisely to stop weather related immigration. This is very probably the longest manmade barrier in the world in 2023. By August 2021, 3,141 kilometres (1,952 mi) of fencing was completed out of a total of just over 4,000km border. So to say that this fence and Indias associated lack of acceptance of immigrants wont be in place until the 2040s is.... extremely unlikely. Bangladesh is currently (today; 2023) suffering persistent issues due directly to climate change.
Same people from India illegally migrate to western nations.
You excelled yourself with this one!
This is such a good video! I should not have put off watching it this long!
This is without a doubt the best video I have ever seen.
This was one of the best videos I have watched in a while. Incredibly captivating for a video over an hour, especially having watched your video on the earlier decade before.
Keep up the good work!
It is optimistic, but the idea that it won't happen is still quite scary, given that this is still a pretty grim outcome all things considered and we as a species are sadly not doing anything to change in this direction. We are just speeding faster and faster towards doom with absolutely no sign of stopping
It’s easy to be pessimistic about the future but we have to hold onto hope to a certain extent. We have to keep trying and fighting regardless because giving up doesn’t really serve a purpose. And if you love the natural world like i do, you should remember that nature never gives up. The one word that sums up nature more than any other, would be ‘Perseverance’.
Simon, I'm in tears as I type this. I only hope and pray your projected model here is our worst case. Cheers
Just watched this whole thing on Nebula. Sooooooo good!!!!
Had me in tears a couple of times for different reasons. Amazing. Inspiring.
Thank you so much Simon !
It’s so refreshing to get a better view of how things could be if we keep on the fight, in a realistic way. It might be grim and far from the ideal we’d like to see, but still full of hope.
Thousands of thanks for the amazing work you and your team produce ❤
Can't believe I missed this gem. Fantastic video and great storytelling!
Get off your dead ass and help fix this.
@@mrunning10No u lol
If you like this, I’d suggest two different novels about how things can go… “Ministry for the Future”, by Kim Stanley Robinson (dark but ultimately optimistic); and “The Deluge”, by Stephen Markley (dark, pessimistic). I recommend Ministry for the Future first, partly because it’s more optimistic, and partly because it’s a much easier read. The Deluge is approximately the size and complexity of War and Peace (I’ve read both).
These are fascinating projections. I would very much like to revisit this in 75 years to see which predictions were close and what may have been way off, but I doubt I’ll be around that long without major breakthroughs in longevity. How about a retrospective in 25 years?
What a beautiful tribute to your father and to the relisience humanity can display...
Would love to see this get a million views
Outstanding work. I fear this is an overly optimistic view of our future, but hope is important and I hope I’m wrong.
Watched this on nebula but watching again and commenting here because this video gave me hope for the future
Very, very thought-provoking video, amazing work as always, Simon!
Spectacular work. Your channel is criminally underrated in the video essay space.
Omg the shade thrown on ITER is too real
I know people are already saying this but the prediction that we would get 2 category 5 hurricanes off the coast of Florida in 2028 within 3 weeks of each other, was astonishing considering that now in 2024 we got hurricane Helene a category 4 and hurricane Milton a category 5, 2 weeks apart in the gulf of Mexico near Florida.
Bro was off by 4 years late.
This is such a novel and incredible project. By far my favorite video you have made that really helps with grasping the consequences of climate change, which is such a tricky but neccecary issue. Amazing job to you and all those who worked on this project.
I never believe in alt-history scenarios because I feel that they're usually unrealistic, but this one hit deep and felt unfairly realistic. Hopefully we reach a good conclusion by 2100...
Amazing video! Thanks for all of the work you do!
People have deluded themselves into having cars. I got rid of mine in 2018 and don't miss it.
I'm still only 3/4 the way through, but I have to say this video is definitely the best one you've ever created. It gave me chills multiple times, had me absolutely fascinated throughout, at times made me hopeless, at times invigorated. It's a combination of worldbuilding, sci-fi, and actual science that's so realistic it hurts. This was just. Abolutely amazing. Bravo.
Disappointed with no chapters in the video.
Nice work Simon 😊. Was waiting for “Solar Geoengineering” as a multitude of measures that enhance reflectivity. And a compression of history. Also 🎉closer to The Ministry of the Future that has a powerful economic resolution called Carbon Quantitative Easing. Really hope resource wars can be avoided by increased global cooperation.
I was born in 2011. I really hope this trajectory is accurate, I'm very scared for how the world will look when I'm older... I don't want to live in a world where the current trends continue. Thank you for making this video.
its crazy to me that people a near decade younger than me are looking at these kinds of things with the same fear I have had as long as I remember. I hope to see you on the streets of a climate riot in the next decade I suppose.
41:42 Not on topic i know but i love the name dropping of random huge events in these sort of videos. Reminds me of the brief mention of "the clone wars" in A New Hope lol
"The AI bubble of '26" 😂
This is remarkable, Simon. Informative, educational, emotional. Thank you so much for making this.
I absolutely love how this is basically a BobbyBroccoli video set in 2100 haha
I'm sorry I missed this when it was posted. It's beautiful.
Had me near tears at certain parts and goosebumps all the way through...I want us as a people to make it so wholeheartedly and your storytelling from the point of a fellow atmospheric science geek really catches me!
If you are aspiring to also continue your writing in that direction, you for sure have a reader in me again
This is a really cool bit of science-fiction and I think the documentary format is honestly a great way to present this kinda thing. I also like the focus on the global south, that seems extremely fitting.
Lost me at claiming China would become less confrontational.
That was a lot of time, thought and effort put into it. I am speechless. And that could all be real... Applauds!
Well done. I really like the throw aways like the AI crash of '26 :)
That was very interesting, I was not surprised at how many other experts you had to talk to to make this.
Your optimism is refreshing, though I am skeptical of such a good outcome /: Thank you very much for the video!
this version of the future is a lot more promising than i thought it would be or personally realistically think it WILL be, but hey I'm not a pessimist i just think more governments will make more big mistakes and ofc companies will just focus on short term profits..
I love the little details! Also, extremely impressive for only the third video in this style. I'm going to have to rewatch the other two episodes soon to refresh my memory.
Please keep producing these amazing ocntents
I LOLed with "these did next to nothing" CCS bit
If only it wasn't so depressingly true it would have been the funniest bit of the video
I bet the biggest impact of CCS will be accidentally discovering ways for making really large and efficient filters for particulate matter that can be used in hospitals to clean the air of viruses and other things.
LOVED this. Very well-done!
im gonna come back to this video in 2100 and judge how accurate you were.
Holy hell, As a current sufferer form a great deal of climate anxiety in general this means so much. To see that there is a realiistic future that could be worth seeing, even while remembering that we humans are flawed and imperfect creatures and will both make bad choices in desperation but also as a group are capable of great things, and bend towards the right things with enough focus. Not to be Maudlin but this is legit one of the first things in a while that really helps me see that there might still be a version of the future worth seeing.
What a ride this video was! I can't be the only one who cried (multiple times!) during it.
And laughed too. Generally, it's amazing how emotional this felt.
I never really lost hope on the subject, but even I felt the rise of the hopium levels in my bloodstream by the end of it. And I think lots of people need that now.
I'm really happy this video exists
Amazing work, Simon!
You are definitely not alone. A few chuckles, and a few tears, and a lot to think about, a great video indeed.
this is criminally under-viewed. This should've gotten millions of views by now
Only a few minutes in, but I'm sure Bobby will be proud once he sees this! Assuming he hasn't already.
The regular updates on the Earthshaking advancements in cold fusion science provided the perfect amount of comic relief.
This video is an amazing source of hope, the quality here is incredible. Have you considered, just for fun, to do a video on the best possible scenario starting when the Global Warming: The Decade We Lost Earth video starts if everything went perfectly?
I don't know what to make of this video. I like to think our outcome will inevitably be the reduction of emissions, but with the clusterfuck going on out there in the real world, it's really _really_ hard to hope.
One oversight in this video, I think, is your repeated use of the "sustainable aviation fuel" to refer to biofuels, while claiming that the world food system held on.
The use of shrinking areas of arable land to grow crops for fuel production would compete with the use of that land to grow food. Many years ago, I read an analysis in the French newspaper L'Humanité, stating that to meet France's transport needs from biofuels would require the entire arable area of France. Granted, this was not only fuel for air travel, but inevitably the diversion of land from food production to fuel production would push prices up, and push some of the world's population to (or over) the brink of starvation.
There has been some talk recently of producing biofuels from waste cooking oils, but there also seems to be significant doubt that enough waste oils could be collected to substitute more than a small fraction of current aviation fuel demand. As I see it, either mass air transport needs to end, or an entirely new approach is needed, such as the use of hydrogen fuel cells to power electric planes.
I'm of the opinion from all I've seen that biofuels are about as reliable as carbon capture. And until we have mass producable graphene material hydrogen fuel cells are deeply wasteful
@@sookendestroy1 My point isn't about the efficiency of biofuels, but that we're unlikely to be able to produce them in sufficient quantity without catastrophic effects on food supply.
How many people would it be "efficient"to starve in order to maintain mass air travel?
That deserves some thought. And we need more data. Some figures estimate that we could reduce agricultural land use by 2/3 (so only 1/3 of what we use now) if we switched diet. But then we need to account for the productivity of organic farming against conventional one, since it also seems we need to go full organic. Then calculate how much land would we need to give up to nature to recover ecosystems. Then see how much biofuel we could fit in the remaining gap.
Tbf this was in combination with a massive expansion of high speed rail, which is likely going to almost kill the regional aviation market, which currently accounts for the majority of air travel. In a place like Europe it would be fairly simple to move the majority of the journeys currently done by air over to high speed rail through relatively minor expansion of the current network but most importantly the interconnection of national networks, which is alreadly happening. We already have examples like France where short haul flights have been banned. In essence the aviation market he's envisioning is one that is much smaller than the current one. Also it is likely that biomass demand in the future won't be met by agriculture but by aquaculture in the form of sea weed and kelp farming, which also seems like a vital component in restoring ocean environments by filtering out runoff. Again in Europe there is ample opportunity for establishing kelp farms, and the high ammount of runoff seen in Europe also seemingly makes it a necessity, you can probably also do this elsewhere but I don't know a lot about the conditions outside the Baltic.
This was an amazing visualization and everything youtube/nebula should be/should have been in Web 2.0. I know you credited BobbyBroccoli in the intro, but even he took this style from Jon Bois, and the informational aspect seems to come from the likes of Tom Scott in his earlier days (as well as others who I cannot remember to name here). I know that BritMonkey also did something similar to this (AI’s “past” development from a future perspective) recently and that certainly shows here. I’d love more of this from not only you, but other UA-camrs as well-the shorts, “did you know?”, and infographic formats are getting old and we’re always destined to fail, and the academic, talking TO people format we often see (and that you often do on your channel) isn’t exactly the most efficient way of getting true, full information to audiences.
Just curious. If it's so clear that ExxonMobil does knew this, can't we sue them in The Hague for deeds against humanity?
All I got out of the piece is that Florida has a unique culture....
Yeah that was gold 💀
Florida Man 😆
A "unique" culture lmfao 💀 the shade
This video should have gone viral. Crazy how few views it got. Even if you do have to stop making videos like this atleast we have this and other ones like it