George Friedman and Robert D. Kaplan on Geopolitical Forecasting (Agenda)
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- Опубліковано 29 сер 2024
- Stratfor's CEO George Friedman and Chief Geopolitical Analyst Robert D. Kaplan debate the challenges of projecting global events.
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Credit Stratfor for inviting in somewhat conflicting views for a competition of ideas, as opposed to a professor making a lecture.
Meanwhile,
Power is evil,
because of the following golden rule of politics:
"Liberty" is a poetic term for property rights.
Therefore there are only TWO KINDS OF LAWS:
- those that protect property rights,
- and those that attack property rights.
I love STRATFOR. Thank you.
This is SO COOL! great job Stratfor!👍🇺🇸👌
I tend to come down on Robert's side of the debate, but they both made excellent points here. Great video, as always!
The basic problem of forecasting is also a key problem in commercial circles. Kaplan is right that there's a limit to accuracy in predicting future events. In fact, it's when you're dead wrong that the costs are highest!
Love these videos, please keep making them! It's hard to find analysis of this caliber anywhere else.
Wow. Contains the essence of all disagreements we have as well as the extreme difficulty in making forecasts (especially the need to know the situational constraints, analysing at the levels of the individual, national, and global and within ST, MT and LT time horizons) I love George's reference to Thucydides, Shakespeare and Greek Tragedy as sources as insight. With this in mind, why are we so seduced by charismatic characters who give simplistic answers and are we so tied to our favourite ideologies ?
High quality debate. I have become a regular consumer of STARTFOR videos. I have not picked a side in this debate.
Really appreciate the videos.
best best, i adore this talks
I still don't understand why the Iranians chose to pick a fight with Israel, with whom they share no borders. This is an example of where the Iranians had a lot of choice on where to take their revolution after they seized power, but just went in any arbitrary direction dictated by theocratic doctrinaire ideology rather than by national interest. If you don't have a border with a country, and don't have globe-spanning interests, then why are you fighting with someone hundreds of miles away?
This sounds like one of those nature-vs-nurture debates. I tend to believe that the outcome is a combination of both. Sometimes one will override the other, depending on the circumstances and drivers.
It will be interesting for George Friedman to do a detail analysis on the so called "US's strategic shift to Asia pacific region" and its wider implication for that region, apart from the fact that the MIC. will receive a lot more orders!! ; )
I want one of these with a longer time frame like and hour or so to really get all of the little details out.
Stratfor should do an Above the Tearline video on large event security issues like the RNC and DNC conventions.
Get him George!
I'm definitely on Robert Kaplan's side in this. Geopolitical forecasters often overlook important details when they base their analysis on their observations.
Well, Friedman won out the long game at least in regards to the Syrian and Israeli examples
@@mrniceguy7168 True, but to what he predicted in his books The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade, Friedman came up extremely short.
this was great....
War or strikes are not necessary so much anymore. The Israelis can and do much harm to Iran with its support of the rebels in Iran and assignation actions. You don't need to defeat your enemy but just disrupt them and cause internal fights in their countries. That type of thing is much more effective in both cost and outcome.
stratfor does not usually makes predictions in their forecasts as much as they analize trends that is why they are succesful
Harry Seldon would be proud
the fact that anti-israeli sentiment is so widespread in the muslim and mainly the arab world doesn't contradict the idea that the syrian regime uses it as a unifying factor in its internal politics.
also I've heard that sectarian tensions in syria (with the exception of the past few years of course) are insignificant due to the secular nature of the syrian state.
Kaplan is right that the players matter in many instances and his example of the Iraq war is a good example. There is no way that Gore, Kerry, or Obama would have invaded Iraq post 9/11. That was a huge risk that even many in the Bush administration had no appetite for. Plus, unlike a US counter-attack in Afghanistan, a major engagement in Iraq was not inevitable.
feel free to use the info at your disposal:)
The US has been trying to promote anti government groups in Iran since they took over the embassy, and have clearly not worked and like the arab spring it is hard to tell when and how effective a popular uprising in Iran could be
Having an enemy such as the Israelis is useful if you want to be the leader of all of Islam. It unites Sunni and Shia against an outside invader.
You're wrong Athenaikos, something I'm sure you're use to by now, I have extensive experience with Stratfor & all it's different tools to keeping yourself informed. I could give you my resume', but that would be a waste. It wouldn't be believed nor change a thing. I'll let you get back to your kool-aid, enjoy.
Yeah but in Iran is not working... Invasion seems to be the ultimate solution. I would go with negotiation. Proxy and direct invasion is not worth it.
I have to agreed with Firedman in that approach.
true
Who was invited on the show by George Friedman. That doesn't sound like absolutism to me.
Could you please do an up to date conversation on the state of the EU ( writing this in 2018) . I am very concerned at what is happening in Europe. I believe that the EU is going in the wrong direction - they are going head long into lessening of the Nation State and into a European Federal State. A lot of EU politicians have come under the influence of the ideas of George Soros and his "Open Society Foundation" I believe this is wrong for Europe and has led to the rise of the far right. We do not need to be one amorphous mass to maintain peace in Europe. Strong ties for good trade relations - cultural and academic exchange will be enough to maintain peace in Europe. We do not need to flood Europe with Muslim immigrants - who have a supremely different way of looking at life to the Countries they are coming into - and lessen our cultural heritage in the process to achieve a lasting European peace. New thinking is required in Brussels - and it is needed quickly. George Soros Liberal 'one World' type thinking needs to go..
So Iranians constantly advertise their inner fear as Shias of being isolated by Sunnis. But nobody seriously thinks that Sunnis, who make up 95% of all Islam, will ever unite under mere 5% Shias. Israel should have backed Syrian Sunnis against Syria's minority rulers a long time ago, because that would have put Iran on the back foot sooner rather than later. Now that US has withdrawn from Iraq after removing Baathist sugarcoat, and with Baathists collapsing in Syria, it'll be Shia-Sunni showdown
Funny how he ignores the structural issues faced by the US which will undoubtedly degrade America's projection.
George Friedman for most awkward presenter ever
"Syrian regime is anti-Israeli because it wants to hide the sectarian differences and appeal to a pan-Arab sentiment"- a very inaccurate observation by Mr. Kaplan. Fact is anti-Israeli sentiment is so strong and overriding in the Arab world that it cannot hide or substitute any other. Sectarian differences and tension are very much a part of Syria's national fabric. No relation with having differences with Israel.
Yeah I dont believe Obama believed he could change anything. Those guys in Washington know the things you know at your private foreign policy research company. Really the point of these videos is just to explain realities of politics and compare them to expectations of regular people.
interesting
you might not noticing what a clusterfuck diplomacy is going on nowadays then...
I wrote an article a while ago about what geopolitics entails. Among other sources, I used this video. If you are interested check out my website: lawandgeopolitics. com
you can find the article on the right
"The Revenge of Geography is a frustrating, often annoying, even anger-generating, read. One can only admire the breadth of Kaplan’s historical and contemporary information, at the same time regretting the narrowness of
his reading in contemporary social science..." (The AAG Review of Books, 1(1) 2013, pp. 1-3).
i translated this book into kurdish. i felt these during the translation. i can say it is because he has used different sources that some of them written in the past and could predict new developments
sure thing, they wont talk about the crazy netanyahu, neither about the samson option, nor about removing obama, so go back to sleep...