Ted Oakley - Oxbow Advisors - Video Market Update - January 2024
Вставка
- Опубліковано 25 чер 2024
- Ted Oakley reviews his thoughts on the economy, the stock market, and the changing environment in bonds. He outlines Oxbow’s outlook for the year ahead.
Visit www.oxbowadvisors.com/2023-books for a complimentary copy of Ted Oakley's new book "Stay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio" Link: oxbowadvisors.com/balanced-po...
To speak to a portfolio manager at Oxbow Advisors click this link: bit.ly/3Tg0YIS
Social Media & UA-cam Disclosure: bit.ly/3LJ8IRs
0:00-0:25 Chapter: Intro
0:25-1:57 Themes
1:57-5:15 Chapter: The Economy
5:15-9:32 Chapter: Bonds & Interest Rates
9:32-13:54 Chapter: Stocks
13:54-15:57 Chapter: Summary
15:57-17:24 Chapter: Outro
Ted you're a gentleman - and your'e a smart gentleman. Thank everyone at Oxbow who do the hard work.
Thank you once again Ted for your voice of reason in a chaotic environment. It is much appreciated.
As per usual, Ted delivers another pertinent gem. So much info packed into 17 mins, I had to start the video again and listen to the whole thing to absorb the things I missed . Thanks Ted!
yeah they missed Nasdaq 50% rally in 2023.
Thanks yet again, Ted. I can't tell you how much I appreciate your honest, candid, humble assessment of the markets and your positioning.
Thank you sir
Hi Ted, you're a class act, the complete opposite to the shills I see selling on You Tube. Please keep me updated on the changing markets because you're someone to trust.
Thank you Ted. Outstanding analysis as always, spoken in language that the average investor can understand. Honest, clear, concise.
Thank you Ted. As always a very cogent analysis. I look forward to your videos.
As ALWAYS, an excellent concise and informative video. Thank you Ted.
Best video I have seen on current conditions. Thank you
Thank you so much Ted. So much generosity. You are in my prayers.
Love the comments Ted. Thank you so much for the sober look at the frothy market and fixed income opportunities.
Thank you so much for your education and your help for your honesty
👑SIR Ted Oakley 🥇
Thank you. Great presentation. Sooner or later the bond market will fall apart. Ted you and your team are outstanding, with experience and wisdom. Great job............ It's going to get interesting for sure!
Love listening to Ted. He is wisdom and prudent investing personified. Always thoughtful advice and insights.
We are already 12 days into 2024 and things are not improving. I am beginning to look at high-yield dividend stocks. The bond market is not the most lucrative, and buying bonds as the only alternative after selling $370k worth of equities is stupid.
I might turn to cash soon. Yes, the annuity payouts are nice, but obviously can just get you by. Any ideas?
To everyone complaining of the unexpected losses the bond market has suffered, that's a sign of excessive bearishness when investors interpret good news as bad. Yes, interest rates are rising, and so are the higher payouts on my annuity.
Don't get any ideas. If I were you, I would bother less and buy gold and bitcoin. There are more institutional investors in long bonds than individuals. Btw the whole sell-off is not so bad.
Yes, while higher interest rates increase bond yields, they also hurt long-term bondholders who can't wait for their bonds to mature.
These institutions want to hold your money for the longest in the worst bond bear market in history. Do not subscribe. Look for alternatives to keep passive income coming. I think the commodities market is looking good, but consult with a planner like I do before putting your money into these markets.
I'm sorry asking these questions, I am new to bonds, but what is causing the mass bond sell-off? What other alternatives have you tried that bring you passive income?
Thank you, Ted. Excellent insight and perspective on the current market.
Thanks Ted from the U.K.
I was waiting for that update! Thank you.
Thank you Ted!
Thanks for this terrific recap and presentation, it is greatly admires and appreciated.
Thanks for this perspective Ted! I am still new to investing, early stages of my career. But I have learned one thing for sure, do not trust the market strategists (those sitting in the studios, and just talking in the air). What you have here, is truly great. Thanks for sharing the wisdom. Looking forward to more videos from you.
Ted: Thanks so much for giving us a peek into your holdings. I don't have enough money to be a client of yours, but I truly appreciate your steady sensible words of wisdom. I have recently bought AMLP with trepidation, but it was certainly good to see that it was something that your firm has purchased. If it is good enough for steady hands at Oxbow it is great to know.
Mr. Oakley - appreciate your experience and data driven insights! I agree we are heading for a debt crisis and rates are heading much higher. Money printing has never worked throughout history and it isn't going to work this time. Gold is real money and I have long time real estate holdings > 15 years. Real assets are the place to be.
Thanks Ted!
Excellent breakdown.
Thank you, Ted
Hard to argue with complete logic. Thank you Ted ...apple is worth 3trillion the entire Germany GDP😮
Good stat
Come on Germany, please keep up
It is indeed in the order of magnitude of Trillions... 3 Trillion Apple capitalization and 4.4 Trillion Germany GDP... It sounds little weird, if you account that Germany has 80 million citizens and very high end technology companies in many sectors while Apple has maybe 200k employees and some products... If I observe the reality around here, in Spain, I can observe many more products of Germany in all places and of high cost and value... Cars, construction/industrial/medical/textile machinery and tools... Than apple phones and tablets... Not sure how far the irrational exuberance can go further... Really...
@@ivivivir thanks. I corrected my post...it's not 3x .. it's 3 trillion
@@ivivivir
Interesting observations by you, thanks
Just how far can it go, indeed
@@cjswa6473
Noted
Still the comparison gives an interesting perspective
Keep up the phenomenal work!
Tnx Ted, great videos and interviews!
Thank you. Sober reminder.
Thank you for your thoughts,.
Excellent.
Love you Ted
Ted, brilliant stuff. Keep the videos coming!!
Very good Tedd.
Thanks
good show
Some good insights here !
Ted, thank you very much! Our government has been increasingly doing less of what makes sense since the early 90's, until now we have almost a state of lawless lunacy! Not sure anymore there is a strategy that can survive how bad things really could get? Especially since patriotic Americans of a traditional orderly mindset are not the ones running the country anymore.
Great!
Brilliant.
Excellent podcast as usual Ted, btw I really enjoyed your podcast with Felix Zulauf, man is like Nostradamus. 😊
Thanks Ted.. As usual I agree with your comments.. Thanks for sharing your views. Here's my thinking.. On the high (and hyper growing) national debt.. Even if we get to a point were nobody wants to finance the super high debt.. No problem.. Don't worry .. Jay and the Fed, with it's unlimited amount of money, will just keep stepping in and buy the bonds that everyone wants to buy to finance the debt.. I think the Fed has already done that in the past - to keep interest rates low. I am not sure what will happen if Jay and the Fed keep on doing that.. I guess no matter how high the debt goes or how much money the government keeps spending - the Fed will always finance the debt... Wow.. But at some point, I would think that somehow, at sometime - the whole financial system will collapse..
excellent
Ted Oakley, i have listened to your financial assessments over the months, from Tasmania, Australia. I like hearing your fact based knowledge, based on years of experience, and your patient temperament regards financial investments. Happy new year, i wish you. family, and friends a safe, and prosperous 2024. kind regards
Yes more please.
Ted, great information as always. I wish you had a service for investors with under $2 million in assets. I really like your investment style, which is not too agressive.
Ted just curious are you 100 percent short term treasury with no target on the convexity play at all…love your posts and the company you keep in the podcast universe, thank you and have a great New Year!
Ya the magnificent seven is a great movie. It’s one of the classics.
In consideration of the skyrocketing GOV debt, won't there be incentive to keep rates lower in order to service the debt? A Japan scenario in which yield curve controls could be necessary?
Excellent insights as usual! It seems that they may have gotten better at micro manipulation of markets, I don't know how they can get out of this one this time, but I remember back in 2008 didn't seem they were going to be able to pull through, and somehow they did. I don't know how long the monetary expansion can continue but it does seem they've gotten better at pulling strings. I'm sure they'll be able to hold it together at least through the elections. I did move half of my modest portfolio to physical assets.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank I am smoking the same pipe as you here in Australia great content happy new year 2024😊
Your largest holding is in a floating rate bond fund? Which one?
Certainly seems like a good time to be holding some June 2025 or December 2025 expiring put options on the Q's or SPY right now.
if the big 7 report great earnings then bull market right?
If they believe they can get away with resetting the debt, be very worried. I trust in gold for that very scenario!
I agree, but I have been "agreeing" to this scenario for the past decade, and have been consistently wrong, or early, which is the same thing. I still think we are headed for a major storm.
Wow! The debt is crazy!
14:36
Can MPLX & AMLP really maintain those high yields?
They are taking a lot out of their Free Cash Flow to pay them, and they have high debt levels
For me that is excessive
Any views, please?
Agree. I own only EPD and ET because of this, not MPLX (mixed up with Marathon) or AMLP.
Stock, bond price are all about global liquidity flows, as Ted suggest with Us gov fiscal spending, current exuberance cant last forever. Probably investors are being lured in right before the lag effect kicks in in Us (it apparently already started in Eu)
At present, the most prudent consideration for everyone should be diversifying their income sources, ones not reliant on government support, particularly given the ongoing global economic challenges. This remains an opportune moment to explore investments in assets like digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. thanks to Cheryl Atonal for her guidance in these fields, her proficiency is outstanding
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this.
Personally i Think the pandemic has taught people the importance of multiple streams of income, unfortunately having a job doesn't mean security rather having different investments is the real deal.
Nice to see this here, Cheryl Atonal's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
I'm so impressed knowing how much people talk good about her expertise..Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Cheryl’s insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Ahhh the obligatory FAKE NAME DROP !
SCAMMERS !
It’s actually way worse than I thought, this last jobs report showed that of those 216K jobs that were added, 50K were government jobs and now we now that the government spent more money in 2023 than during the pandemic yet we have credit card debt climbing to historical levels and national savings is at 3.8% of gross annual income 😮
What if they will reset the debt what next.,
This is how you make money by not chasing cos FOMO where patience will be rewarded at the end.
Trend is my friend, for next 10 years?
Can we please fire Powell and get Ted in there to straighten things out?
I'm self directed but if I was going to use somebody, Oxbow would be it...although they are for high net worth. At 9:58 he shows a statistic on the S&P500 total return for two years is 3.13% and that makes the case for using some kind of tactical trading/investing strategy...
In Europe, central banks are anticipating have to rapidly rise monthly rate to 8% just to attract or maintain investors. Asia has been unloading US Bonds and Treasuries, and investing massively into gold. They are chasing Other commodities like Silver with similar gusto. China will return to the Bond market when the higher returns reappear. The far East may be considered the enemy but perhaps on this issue we should follow their lead on investing in both avenues.
A trillion...if you were born today and lived a trillion seconds. How Old would you be? Answer...almost 32,000 years old😮
Or..if you spent 1 million dollars everyday since the birth of Christ 1Ad. You are not enen close to spending 1 trillion
timing the market--nope
Another episode with Ted " Boy did I get the markets wrong in 2023" Oakley. Maybe He will be correct in 2024. And as for our debt Ted says we are going to have a real problem sometime in the " next decade, next 35 years, some number." Now that is really nailing it down. Sounding like Jim" the worst in my life time" Rogers.
Who listened to Jim Rogers 😂😂