Are US Curbs on China Working? A Realistic Evaluation of Chinese Chip Industry
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- Опубліковано 16 вер 2024
- Since 2018, the United States has been intensifying its curbs on China, especially in the semiconductor industry and other sensitive technology areas. While these measures have effectively limited the technological development of China, China has been finding ways to offset and to circumvent these sanctions. Despite having zero to no profitability, the Chinese chip industry has been kept afloat by national policies that demand progress rather than profit. How should we realistically evaluate China’s development? Delve into industry insights backed by data and first-hand evidence on Semiconductor Geopolitics: Taiwan's View.
#China #UnitedStates #sanction #tradewar #R&D #Taiwan #ICdesign #TSMC #SMIC #Trump #Biden #techwar
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Nothing but respect China's Perseverance. Hope it continues to do better, resulting in a better life and higher living standards for its billion people.
Great comment, true
the Western chip manufacturers will find it harder to invest in R&D after losing the huge Chinese market.
So true
The Moore Law is reaching the limit, meaning it is increasingly difficult to reduce seminconductor node size (much slower innovation pace and much more costlier). At the end of day, customers may ask: is it worth it to have a little more performance at a huge price tag? China can take advantage of this slowing down to catch up faster to rivals. In addition, chiplet and packaging can increase performance to some extent. Chip that uses light (instead of electronics) can be much faster. Quantum computing promises dramatic increase of performance. The two latter tech: China and the rest of the world are at the same pace! (beginning). So no one has decisive advantage in these two.
They talk as if only China is affected how many hundreds of billions have each chip company has lost just to keep U.S happy.
Loses are on both sides but China has an edge on exports where every year China has almost a trillion dollars trade surplus where other countries make up their loses with deficits. Before sanctions China imported over 400billion worth of chip products and were happy to do so but sooner or later they will catch up.
Western profits have already taken over 20% hit respectively
This channel is produced by Taiwanese. Over 70% of them are against unification because they think their Western democracy is superior than Chinese socialism. And some of these 70% are separationist because of various reasons including the reason that their ancestors was in fact Japanese.
Huawei chips had beaten the US chips economic sanctions. China is now the world's largest car exporter beating Japan, US and Europe. Many of the chips used are from Huawei. Huawei also beat Apple to become the leading phone company in China. Many US and Japan semiconductor companies lost the China 's mkt bcos during the ban, Huawei was forced to reinnovate, fund higher R&D and collaborate with Chinese companies in the Chip industry to meet shortages. As a result, the Chinese companies fill the demands and takeover the Chip domestic mkt from foreign imports. Hence, imports fell and Japan n US Chip companies suffered revenue loss in billions of dollars. Nvidia lost $1.2 trillion when the mkt crash.
I hope China and places where China has control over, such as projects via BRI are instructed to use Chinese chips.
With thousands of engineers in China, it’s just a matter of time to catch up.
They've caught up and are passing
Bless Motherland, China 10,000 Years & Beyond Forevermore!🙏🙏🙏👍🏼🇨🇳🌏☮️🙂❗️
China build their own space station. Is a marathon not a sprint.
It's a matter of time, a lot of Western chip companies will lose a lot
of money in the future.
Intel is falling apart
Made in China 2025.
A timeline, with much achieved since the slogan was coined.
Starting with big, and moving in on the finer details of silicon, is just a matter of time.
In spite of the suppression, China leads the world in many fields.
While the US is thrilled that equipment tools for finer silicon manufacturing is denied to China, this doesn't mean China is crippled.
Covid-19 era is a lesson, not absorbed well.
With China closed, the trend after seems to be friend or near shoring after many industries got crippled or never recovered.
Apple is back in China. After a sojourn to Vietnam, India, why did Cook increased his China presence?
Meanwhile, how will Apple and Huawei fare?
With US in control, some chip giants must bear with red ink in the ledger with retrenchements a way to cut cost.
China is in control of critical mineral processing tech and has been very responsible in selectively managing export restrictions of rare earth minerals, for both military and civilian use.
Had China been wanton in retaliation, many process of the chip industry will have been disrupted.
China can get by with their crude legacy chips manufacturing, but when fully matured they will rattle the world markets.
There's no real hurry.
And don't forget BRICS.
The best technology without the raw materials.
How will Uncle Sam react?
The sun rises in the East and the Chinese resolve can never be subdued.
With an income stream at 3 billion per day and an average of 47% saving. They rolled over the 300 billions of real estate credit deficit within a year.
With a death grip on component supplying, satellite support of manufacturing, and production, for the world. It’s just matter of time before anything breaks in their favor.
And with that average saving of 47%. No matter what their youth unemployment rate is, timing is also on their side.
wow! I love this! first time to this chanel, this show with a lot of substance. A breath of fresh air from those opinionated air heads of the western journalism.
Great introductory video overall, but one glaring problem is the assumption that U.S. semiconductor companies must be profitable by themselves to invest in R&D while Chinese semiconductor companies are the only ones being propped up by government subsidies. Case in point is Intel, which continues to burn through 10s of billions in U.S. subsidies while remaining spectacularly weak and unprofitable without those government support.
This is a good analysis with actual industry experts. China is stuck like it was with ICE cars. The China 2025 goals was established based on a free trade world and access to the same equipment Taiwan has access to.
Today, China is building it's chip industry from the ground up. It will take longer but not impossible. Today's silicon chip tech is matured, it has reached its limits and China is only one generation away from cutting edge in the chip process, EUV driven process.
The real race is the next technological advancement. China is neck to neck with the US in this race, graphene/carbon based chips, photonics and analogy AI tech. The present AI tech using binary logic tech is not sustainable or scalable or economical.
As far as the silicon chip industry is concerned, China is growing its legacy chip industry. Cutting edge SOC and AI processors are far from the only things in the chip industry that matters.
already made a huge progress and very close with the west, these info here are very old, made yo mislead everyone under the western media. This is their hope to prevent China from getting more investors from the west. have you not seen the Olympic posters? no Chinese at all because America is afraid of their fast growth.
And if you go to any Chinese city V American - you will find that they are so far ahead in every respect - safety , public transport, infrastructure, organized , clean , cheap services from food delivery ,online shopping, 6G connectivity, cashless payments, EVs, electric bikes, mobile phones, etc. You already way behind them.
Taiwan leadership is trying hard to make Taiwan the battlefield like Ukraine
Time is one of the most important factors in everything. Things that absolutely cannot be done in one year can be done in three years. Without mentioning a timeframe, this video is just so much nonsensical, empty talk.
If you want to give your audience some useful reference, ask your expert to give their opinions about 2025 and 2030.
At the end it is the US consumer that suffers with higher prices, lower quality products , EVs that 100 other countries enjoy, so their quality life is affected.
This is a propaganda mouthpiece of nazzee west
It's real simple, what inventions have the 400,000 stem students achieved? That's what I see. Despite America having a smaller population, we have more innovation. I could help China with this issue, but teaching creativity requires freedom. Lack of freedom and strict schools slows down innovation.
Perhaps you are unaware of how key Chinese scientists and engineers living in the United States are to its innovation. Just look through Google's annual scientific advance catalog for any recent year and you will find that in almost every American scientific team there are Chinese scientists. In many cases they lead the team.
Or take the example of Artificial Intelligence in the US. A recent study showed that Chinese staff made up 51% of the the total working in America on AI.
Of course few of the 500,000 top STEM students coming out of Chinese universities will immediately invent things but given a few years experience working with more experienced staff they are bound to do so. Chinese people are very quick minded and dedicated. And as History has shown that Chinese people are quite able to invent amazing things (paper, printing, ceramics, silk, gunpowder and so on) which enabled China to be the largest economy for thousands of years. So, never underestimate them!
@@patbyrneme007 Id like to see that study that says 51% are native chinese born in china working on AI. I have extreme doubts.
@@patbyrneme007 I just went looking for those statistics, but i think you are misled. Over 44% of google employees are asian, but most of then are asian american, not chinese. A simple google search showed America is still dominating AI, and although the demographics you listed arent available with a simple google search, the ethnic background of each company is. Most of the companies are 50% white or more, and those Cali companies with large asian demographics are asian Americans who went to american colleges. I dont doubt there are a couple chinese employees, but they are an extreme minority, and the US is still dominating AI. The bigger tech issue is laser lithography of processors like ASML, and china tried to steal that invention from our tax payer funded defense department, but luckily Trump and Biden stopped them. Any future inventions of ours need to be protected from theft. I cant name one technology that America stole from China, not since the Opium wars and tea.
I am sorry but I cant find the report now. But think about it. For many years now one third of US university students were Chinese the majority of which were studying science and engineering. American students preferring law, business and arts courses. With many of the best Chinese students staying on Amerixa for postgraduate studies and layer employment, it makes sense that many leading scientists and engineers in the US are Chinese.
This situation is now changing. As Chinese universities rise up the academic league tables and Chinese employers favour native educated graduates, many Chinese students are choosing to study in China. This is causing a funding crisis in many US universities.
As for Chinese scientists working in the US a significant number are returning to China in response to the anti-China atmosphere encouraged by Trump's FBI run China Initiative. Also they are being offered attractive salaries, budgets and facilities back in China.
You misunderstood. I was not talking about Google employees but about the list that Google publishes every year of scientific discoveries.
Let's boil a complex analysis to basics
China's semiconductor industry is frozen in 2015 technology node levels by sanctions umposed starting in 2017 but not fully implemented until about 2023.
China has been successful maximizing known methods and practices to achieve the Kirin 9000S chip a couple years ago which is likely the last chip that can be produced at scale commercially without unique innovation
As described in this video, in situations where size and power are not limitations, China can combine multiple chips to increase computing power but ultimately there are limitations to that approach.
China can try to innovate by design but here again there will be limitations. Special pathways burned into silicon would be very process and application specific but useless for other purposes which is likely the basis for recent ralk about Chinese AI chips.
This video is wrong about China's supposed advantage in ralent based on its enormous population. Talent cannot achieve if it's not exposed to necessary industry knowledge and experience. Talent cannot flourish when people are told what to do abd how to do it
China is very good at applied technologies and improving an idea but lack knowledge of fundamental sciences and the experience of the discoveries that over tume built complex industries
As if tiday, China is at least 3 generations behind the global leading edge and falling behind further with each passing day
This does not mean that China won't make snall duscoveries but never anything that can progress significantly beyind where they are now.
So white invented everything we know today?
Keep dreaming
If your conclusion is right, then why do US and Japan keep wasting their resources in trying to prevent China in this sector? Anyway, China has plenty of time to catch up while enjoying what she is currently doing.
Oh really, you must be god and all knowing.
@@shivasaravanan704 , Indeed you better pray harder.